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This paper analyzes the influence key scientists have in the development of a science and technology system. In particular, this work appraises the influence that star scientists have on the productivity and impact of young faculty, as well as on the likelihood that these young researchers become a leading personality in science. Our analysis confirms previous results that eminent scientist have a prime role in the development of a scientific system, especially within the context of an emerging economy like Mexico. In particular, in terms of productivity and visibility, this work shows that between 1984 and 2001 the elite group of physicists in Mexico (approximate 10% of all scientists working in physics and its related fields) published 42% of all publications, received 50% of all citations and bred 18% to 26% of new entrants. In addition our work shows that scientists that enter the system by the hand of a highly productive researcher increased their productivity on average by 28% and the ones that did it by the hand of a highly visible scientist received on average 141% more citations, vis-à-vis scholars that did not published their first manuscripts with an eminent scientist. Furthermore, scholars that enter the system by the hand of a highly productive researcher were on average 2.5 more likely to also become a star. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains at moderate level in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). However, different epidemiologic scenarios could influence national and sub-regional TDR levels and trends. Methods and Findings: We performed a systematic review of currently available publications on TDR in antiretroviral treatment-naïve adults in LAC. Ninety-eight studies published between January 2000 and June 2015 were included according to critical appraisal criteria and classified by sub-region: Brazil (50), Mesoamerica (17), Southern Cone (16), Andean (8) and Caribbean (7). From these, 81 studies encompassing 11,441 individuals with data on DR mutation frequency were included in a meta-analysis. Overall TDR prevalence in LAC was 7.7% (95% CI: 7.2%-8.2%). An increasing trend was observed for overall TDR when comparing 2000–2005 (6.0%) and 2006–2015 (8.2%) (p<0.0001), which was associated with significant NNRTI TDR increase (p<0.0001). NRTI TDR decreased (4.5% vs. 2.3%, p<0.0001). NNRTI TDR increase was associated mainly with K101E, K103N and G190A. NRTI TDR decrease was associated mainly with M184V, K70R and T215Y. All sub-regions reached moderate overall TDR levels. The rapid increase in TDR to all antiretroviral classes in the Caribbean is notable, as well as the significant increase in NNRTI TDR reaching moderate levels in the Southern Cone. NRTI TDR was dominant in 2000–2005, mainly in the Caribbean, Mesoamerica and Brazil. This dominance was lost in 2006–2015 in all sub-regions, with the Southern Cone and the Caribbean switching to NNRTI dominance. PI TDR remained mostly constant with a significant increase only observed in the Caribbean. Conclusions: Given the high conceptual and methodological heterogeneity of HIV TDR studies, implementation of surveys with standardized methodology and national representativeness is warranted to generate reliable to inform public health policies. The observed increasing trend in NNRTI TDR supports the need to strengthen TDR surveillance and programme monitoring and evaluation in LAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Staff education is considered key to quality of early childhood education and care (ECEC) programs. However, findings about associations between staff education and children’s outcomes have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of associations between ECEC staff education and child outcomes. Searches of Medline, PsycINFO, and ERIC, websites of large datasets and reference sections of all retrieved articles were conducted. Eligible studies provided a statistical link between staff education and child outcomes for preschool-aged children in ECEC programs. Titles, abstracts and paper reviews as well as all data extraction were conducted by two independent raters. Of the 823 studies reviewed for eligibility, 39 met our inclusion criteria. Research in this area is observational in nature and subject to the inherent biases of that research design. Results from our systematic review were hampered by heterogeneity in how staff education was defined, variability in whose education was measured and the child outcomes that were assessed. However, overall the qualitative summary indicates that associations between staff education and childhood outcomes are non-existent to very borderline positive. In our meta-analysis of more homogeneous studies we identified certain positive, albeit very weak, associations between staff education and children’s language outcomes (specifically, vocabulary and letter word identification) and no significant association with a mathematics outcome (WJ Applied Problems). Thus, our findings suggest that within the range of education levels found in the existing literature, education is not a key driver of child outcomes. However, since we only explored levels of education that were reported in the literature, our findings cannot be used to argue for lowering education standards in ECEC settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To carry out a systematic review with meta-analysis of prevalence of caries in Latin America and Caribbean children considering studies performed in this new century. Methods: Two reviewers searched PubMed, Embase, LILACS and governmental databases through May 2016 to identify papers published in English, Portuguese or Spanish. Studies in those countries performed with 5–6 or 11–13 year-old children and that presented separate prevalence figures from primary and permanent teeth were selected. We performed a descriptive analysis of studies and meta-analysis to calculate the overall prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) in both primary and permanent teeth. We also analyzed the trends of prevalence of caries through the years and influence of other variables on caries prevalence using multilevel analysis. Results: Seventy-five studies were included from the 1,306 articles initially retrieved. The meta-analysis of caries prevalence grouped for Latin American and the Caribbean countries were highly different from Brazil and other investigated countries for primary teeth (5–6 years-old—Brazil: 0.52, other countries:0.70) and permanent teeth (11–12 years-old—Brazil: 0.56, other countries: 0.63). For studies conducted only in Brazil the prevalence was significant lower for primary but not for permanent teeth. In Brazil, a downward trend of caries prevalence was observed in 11-13-year-old children. Conclusion: Despite the decline of caries prevalence in permanent teeth, mainly in Brazil, the disease still affects more than half of the children population in Latin American and Caribbean countries in the 21st Century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traffic state estimation from the floating car system is a challenging problem. The low penetration rate and random distribution make available floating car samples usually cover part space and time points of the road networks. To obtain a wide range of traffic state from the floating car system, many methods have been proposed to estimate the traffic state for the uncovered links. However, these methods cannot provide traffic state of the entire road networks. In this paper, the traffic state estimation is transformed to solve a missing data imputation problem, and the tensor completion framework is proposed to estimate missing traffic state. A tensor is constructed to model traffic state in which observed entries are directly derived from floating car system and unobserved traffic states are modeled as missing entries of constructed tensor. The constructed traffic state tensor can represent spatial and temporal correlations of traffic data and encode the multi-way properties of traffic state. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it can fully mine and utilize the multi-dimensional inherent correlations of traffic state. We tested the proposed approach on a well calibrated simulation network. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach yield reliable traffic state estimation from very sparse floating car data, particularly when dealing with the floating car penetration rate is below 1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines social class-based differences in influence in online review contexts. We explore four mechanisms for how a review writer’s social class may affect readers’ evaluations of the organization. First, we argue that, via a “contagion” process, organizations reviewed by higher-class individuals will be evaluated more positively than organizations reviewed by lower-class individuals. Second, we expect that higher-class reviewers will be seen as more knowledgeable; thus, their opinions will be more influential in shaping others’ opinions. Third, we expect that reviewers will be seen more influential when they review organizations that match their social class. Fourth, we expect people to be more influenced by those who share their own class background. A large-scale observational study of reviews (N = 1,234,665) from finds support for the contagion, the organization-reviewer social class matching, and the reviewer-participant social matching hypotheses, but disconfirms the hypothesis that higher-class reviewers are always treated as having more expertise. Two experimental studies (N = 354 and N = 638) demonstrate that reviewer class plays a causal role in both a contagion process and in an assumption of higher-class knowledge process, but do not provide evidence for the reviewer-participant social matching hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few if any natural resource systems are completely understood and fully observed. Instead, there almost always is uncertainty about the way a system works and its status at any given time, which can limit effective management. A natural approach to uncertainty is to allocate time and effort to the collection of additional data, on the reasonable assumption that more information will facilitate better understanding and lead to better management. But the collection of more data, either through observation or investigation, requires time and effort that often can be put to other conservation activities. An important question is whether the use of limited resources to improve understanding is justified by the resulting potential for improved management. In this paper we address directly a change in value from new information collected through investigation. We frame the value of information in terms of learning through the management process itself, as well as learning through investigations that are external to the management process but add to our base of understanding. We provide a conceptual framework and metrics for this issue, and illustrate them with examples involving Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quality of staff/child interactions as measured by the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS) in Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) programs is thought to be important for children’s outcomes. The CLASS is made of three domains that assess Emotional Support, Classroom Organization and Instructional Support. It is a relatively new measure that is being used increasingly for research, quality monitoring/accountability and other applied purposes. Our objective was to evaluate the association between the CLASS and child outcomes. Searches of Medline, PsycINFO, ERIC, websites of large datasets and reference sections of all retrieved articles were conducted up to July 3, 2015. Studies that measured association between the CLASS and child outcomes for preschool-aged children who attended ECEC programs were included after screening by two independent reviewers. Searches and data extraction were conducted by two independent reviewers. Thirty-five studies were systematically reviewed of which 19 provided data for meta-analyses. Most studies had moderate to high risk of bias. Of the 14 meta-analyses we conducted, associations between Classroom Organization and Pencil Tapping and between Instructional Support and SSRS Social Skills were significant with pooled correlations of .06 and .09 respectively. All associations were in the expected direction. In the systematic review, significant correlations were reported mainly from one large dataset. Substantial heterogeneity in use of the CLASS, its dimensions, child outcomes and statistical measures was identified. Greater consistency in study methodology is urgently needed. Given the multitude of factors that impact child development it is encouraging that our analyses revealed some, although small, associations between the CLASS and children’s outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which can lead to weight gain, is rising in middle-income countries (MICs). Taxing SSBs may help address this challenge. Systematic reviews focused on high-income countries indicate that taxing SSBs may reduce SSB consumption. Responsiveness to price changes may differ in MICs, where governments are considering the tax. To help inform their policy decisions, this review compiles evidence from MICs, assessing post-tax price increases (objective 1), changes in demand for SSBs and other products, overall and by socio-economic groups (objective 2), and effects on overweight and obesity prevalence (objective 3). Methods and Findings: We conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of SSB taxation in MICs (1990–2016) and identified nine studies from Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Estimates for own-price elasticity ranged from -0.6 to -1.2, and decreases in SSB consumption ranged from 5 to 39 kilojoules per person per day given a 10% increase in SSB prices. The review found that milk is a likely substitute, and foods prepared away from home, snacks, and candy are likely complements to SSBs. A quasi-experimental study and two modeling studies also found a negative relationship between SSB prices and obesity outcomes after accounting for substitution effects. Estimates are consistent despite variation in baseline obesity prevalence and per person per day consumption of SSBs across countries studied. Conclusions: The review indicates that taxing SSBs will increase the prices of SSBs, especially sugary soda, in markets with few producers. Taxing SSBs will also reduce net energy intake by enough to prevent further growth in obesity prevalence, but not to reduce population weight permanently. Additional research using better survey data and stronger study designs is needed to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of an SSB tax on obesity prevalence in MICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is an HIV surveillance system that provides national estimates of HIV-related behaviors and clinical outcomes. When first implemented, MMP excluded persons living with HIV not receiving HIV care. This analysis will describe new case-surveillance-based methods to identify and recruit persons living with HIV who are out of care and at elevated risk for mortality and ongoing HIV transmission. Stratified random samples of all persons living with HIV were selected from the National HIV Surveillance System in five public health jurisdictions from 2012–2014. Sampled persons were located and contacted through seven different data sources and five methods of contact to collect interviews and medical record abstractions. Data were weighted for non-response and case reporting delay. The modified sampling methodology yielded 1159 interviews (adjusted response rate, 44.5%) and matching medical record abstractions for 1087 (93.8%). Of persons with both interview and medical record data, 264 (24.3%) would not have been included using prior MMP methods. Significant predictors were identified for successful contact (e.g., retention in care, adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98–12.73), interview (e.g. moving out of jurisdiction, aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.12–0.46) and case reporting delay (e.g. rural residence, aOR 3.18; 95% CI: 2.09–4.85). Case-surveillance-based sampling resulted in a comparable response rate to existing MMP methods while providing information on an important new population. These methods have since been adopted by the nationally representative MMP surveillance system, offering a model for public health program, research and surveillance endeavors seeking inclusion of all persons living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring quality of care in family planning services is essential for policymakers and stakeholders. However, there is limited agreement on which mathematical approaches are best able to summarize quality of care. Our study used data from recent Service Provision Assessment surveys in Haiti, Malawi, and Tanzania to compare three methods commonly used to create summary indices of quality of care—a simple additive, a weighted additive that applies equal weights among domains, and principal components analysis (PCA) based methods. The PCA results indicated that the first component cannot sufficiently summarize quality of care. For each scoring method, we categorized family planning facilities into low, medium, and high quality and assessed the agreement with Cohen’s kappa coefficient between pairs of scores. We found that the agreement was generally highest between the simple additive and PCA rankings. Given the limitations of simple additive measures, and the findings of the PCA, we suggest using a weighted additive method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of future population growth will take place in the world’s cities and towns. Yet, there is no well-established, consistent way to measure either urban land or people. Even census-based urban concepts and measures undergo frequent revision, impeding rigorous comparisons over time and place. This study presents a new spatial approach to derive consistent urban proxies for the US. It compares census-designated urban blocks with proxies for land-based classifications of built-up areas derived from time-series of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) for 1990–2010. This comparison provides a new way to understand urban structure and its changes: Most land that is more than 50% built-up, and people living on such land, are officially classified as urban. However, 30% of the census-designated urban population and land is located in less built-up areas that can be characterized as mainly suburban and peri-urban in nature. Such insights are important starting points for a new urban research program: creating globally and temporally consistent proxies to guide modelling of urban change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have suggested that aphasia rates are different in men and women following stroke. One hypothesis says that men have more lateralized language function than women. Given unilateral stroke, this would lead to a prediction of men having higher aphasia rates than women. Another line of observations suggest that women are more severely affected by stroke, which could lead to a higher aphasia rate among women. An additional potential confounding variable could be age, given that women are typically older at the time of stroke. Methods & procedures: This study consists of two parts. First, a meta-analysis of the available reports of aphasia rates in the two sexes was conducted. A comprehensive literature search yielded 25 studies with sufficient information about both aphasia and gender. These studies included a total of 48,362 stroke patients for which aphasia rates were calculated. Second, data were extracted from an American health database (with 1,967,038 stroke patients), in order to include age and stroke severity into a regression analysis of sex differences in aphasia rates. Outcomes & results: Both analyses revealed significantly larger aphasia rates in women than in men (1.1–1.14 ratio). This speaks against the idea that men should be more lateralized in their language function. When age and stroke severity were included as covariates, sex failed to explain any aphasia rate sex difference above and beyond that which is explained by age differences at time of stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated use of field corn (Zea mays L.) hybrids expressing the Cry3Bb1 and mCry3A traits in Nebraska has selected for field-evolved resistance in some western corn rootworm (WCR; Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) populations. Therefore, this study was conducted to characterize spatial variation in local WCR susceptibility to Cry3Bb1 and mCry3A traits in Keith and Buffalo counties, Nebraska, and determine the relationship between past management practices and current WCR susceptibility. Adult WCR populations were collected from sampling grids during 2015 and 2016 and single-plant larval bioassays conducted with F1 progeny documented significant variation in WCR susceptibility to Cry3Bb1 and mCry3A on different spatial scales in both sampling grids. At the local level, results revealed that neighboring cornfields may support WCR populations with very different susceptibility levels, indicating that gene flow of resistant alleles from high trait survival sites is not inundating large areas. A field history index, comprised of additive and weighted variables including past WCR management tactics and agronomic practices, was developed to quantify relative selection pressure in individual fields. The field history index-Cry3 trait survivorship relationship from year 1 data was highly predictive of year 2 Cry3 trait survivorship when year 2 field history indices were inserted into the year 1 base model. Sensitivity analyses indicated years of trait use and associated selection pressure at the local level were the key drivers of WCR susceptibility to Cry3 traits in this system. Retrospective case histories from this study will inform development of optimal resistance management programs and increase understanding of plant-insect interactions that may occur when transgenic corn is deployed in the landscape. Results from this study also support current recommendations to slow or mitigate the evolution of resistance by using a multi-tactic approach to manage WCR densities in individual fields within an integrated pest management framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Harmful gender norms, views on the acceptability of violence against women, and power inequities in relationships have been explored as key drivers of male perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). Yet such antecedents have been inconsistently measured in the empirical literature. This systematic review aimed to identify which measures of gender inequitable norms, views, relations and practices are currently being used in the field, and which are most closely tied with male IPV perpetration. Methods: We searched five electronic databases to identify studies published between 2000 and 2015 that reported the association between such gender inequities and male perpetration of IPV. Identified scales were categorized by content area and level of generality, as well as other attributes, and we compared the consistency of scale performance across each category. Results: Twenty-three studies were identified, employing 64 measures. Scales were categorized into three main thematic areas: views on gender roles/norms, acceptance of violence against women, and gender-related inequities in relationship power and control. We also classified whether the scale was oriented to respondents’ own views, or what they believed others do or think. While overall, measures were positively associated with IPV perpetration in 45% of cases, this finding varied by scale type. Measures inclusive of acceptance of violence against women or beliefs about men’s sexual entitlement, followed by scales that measured respondents’ views on gender roles/norms, were most consistently associated with IPV perpetration. Measures of relationship power showed less consistent associations. We found few scales that measured peer or community norms. Conclusion: Validated scales that encompass views on the acceptance of violence against women, and scales inclusive of beliefs about men’s sexual entitlement, may be particularly promising for unpacking pathways to IPV perpetration, targeting interventions, and monitoring progress in IPV prevention efforts. A number of gaps in the literature are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child–nature interaction has undergone drastic changes in modern history, from a free outdoor childhood to a confined daily life connected to electronic devices, with negative consequences to development and well-being. Any resulting lack of connection to the natural environment can hamper involvement in solving environmental problems. This research attempted to assess children’s perceptions of nature, as well as their feelings and values. Six- to 14-year-old children from the Tupinambá group (n = 91), an indigenous society in Brazil, and from New York (n = 54) drew pictures of nature and answered five questions about their drawings, feelings, and values in regard to natural environments. Quantitative (descriptive) and qualitative (content) analyses of the drawings were carried out, and their liveness and animism were estimated. The answers given by children to the questions about nature were organized into emerging categories from the data. The Tupinambá children’s drawings were generally livelier than those of the New York children. However, the difference failed to reach statistical significance among the younger children, and the difference only approached significance among the older children. The drawings of the Tupinambá contained more animism, depicting non-humans and non-animals with facial expressions, than those of the New Yorkers. Compared with the New Yorkers, the Tupinambá children more often included human constructions such as roads and houses in their drawings. The indigenous children more often saw human and non-human elements as integrated compared with the nonindigenous children. The study reinforces theoretical tendencies about the environmental perception of children in relation to the natural environment and highlights peculiarities of the participating groups, indicating relevant questions for future investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over 18 million adults have initiated life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-poor settings; however, mortality and lost-to-follow-up rates continue to be high among patients in their first year after treatment start. Clinical decision tools are needed to identify patients at high risk for poor outcomes in order to provide individualized risk assessment and intervention. This study aimed to develop and externally validate risk prediction tools that estimate the probability of dying or of being lost to follow-up (LTF) during the year after starting ART. Methods: We used a derivation cohort of 7,031 adults age 15–70 years initiating ART from 2007 to 2013 at 6 clinics in Haiti; 242 (3.5%) had documented death and 1,521 (21.6%) were LTF at 1 year after starting ART. The following routinely collected data were used as predictors in two logistic regression models (one to predict death and another to predict LTF): age, gender, weight, CD4 count, WHO Stage, and diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). The validation cohort consisted of 1,835 adults initiating ART at a different HIV clinic in Haiti during 2012. We assessed model discrimination by measuring the C-statistic, and measured model calibration by how closely the predicted probabilities approximated actual probabilities of the two outcomes. We derived a nomogram and a point-based risk score from the predictive models. Findings: The model predicting death within the year after starting ART had a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.81). There was no evidence for significant overfitting and the predictions were well calibrated. The strongest predictors of 1-year mortality were male gender, low weight, low CD4 count, advanced WHO stage, and the absence of TB. In the validation cohort, the C-statistic was 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.77). A point-based risk score for death had a C-statistic 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76) and categorizes patients as low risk (<2% risk of death), average risk (3–4%), and high-risk (8–10%) and very high-risk (14–19%) with likelihood ratios to be used in settings where the baseline risk is different from our study population. The model predicting LTF did not discriminate well (C-statistic 0.59). Conclusions: A simple risk-score using routinely collected data can predict 1-year mortality after ART initiation for HIV-positive adults in Haiti. However, predicting lost to follow-up using routinely collected data was not as successful. The next step is to assess whether use of this risk score can identify patients who need tailored services to reduce mortality in resource-poor settings such as Haiti. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silodosin, a recently introduced selective α-blocker, has a much higher selectivity for the α-1A receptor. The efficacy and safety of silodosin compared to tamsulosin in medical expulsive therapy (MET) are controversial. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of silodosin compared to tamsulosin for treating ureteral stones <10 mm in diameter. We systematically searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, and Scopus databases from their inception to May 2018. We included randomized controlled studies (RCTs) and observational studies, which investigated stone expulsion rates using silodosin compared to tamsulosin. Data were synthesized using a random-effects model. Sixteen studies with 1824 patients were eligible for inclusion. Silodosin achieved significantly higher expulsion rates than tamsulosin (pooled risk difference (RD): 0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09 to 0.18, GRADE: high). A subgroup analyses showed that silodosin has a significantly higher expulsion rate on stone sizes of 5–10 mm than tamsulosin (pooled RD: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.22, I2 = 0%). The superior effect was not observed on stone sizes <5 mm. A multivariate regression showed that the RD was negatively associated with the control expulsion rate after adjusting for age and gender (coefficient -0.658, p = 0.01). A sensitivity analysis showed that our findings were robust. Patients receiving silodosin also probably had a significantly shorter expulsion time (pooled mean difference (MD): -2.55 days, 95% CI: -4.06 to -1.04, I2 = 85%, GRADE: moderate) and may have fewer pain episodes (pooled MD: -0.3, 95% CI: -0.51 to -0.09, GRADE: low) but a higher incidence of retrograde ejaculation by 5% compared to those receiving tamsulosin. In conclusion, compared to tamsulosin, silodosin provided significantly better stone passage for patients with ureteral stones (particularly for sizes of 5~10 mm), shorter expulsion times, and fewer pain episodes but caused a higher incidence of retrograde ejaculation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: Interdisciplinarity is considered a key concept in the management of complex cases in healthcare. However, working in interdisciplinary teams requires the integration of many concepts and a large amount of effort. To help healthcare managers and professionals identify the strengths and weaknesses of their interdisciplinary team and to ensure its continuous improvement, we developed a tool called the IPC65. Objective: The purpose of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the IPC65. Methods: Based on a comprehensive review of the literature and qualitative and quantitative assessments, the IPC65 was developed. In this study, the analysis was based on 392 healthcare professionals and managers from short-term care settings who provided valid responses throughout the province of Quebec in Canada. Descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha values, and inter-item correlations were measured, and a principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted. Item discrimination was used to provide an improved version of the IPC65. Results: The IPC65 showed good statistical results. The discriminant procedure provided the basis for shortening and improving the IPC65 to form the IPC59. Cronbach’s alpha values ranged from 0.857 to 0.967 in IPC59, demonstrating very good reliability for all four dimensions. The PCA showed good validity. Conclusion: The IPC59 can be used to assess the degree of integration of key concepts leading to interdisciplinarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area, where a future occurrence of the devastating catastrophe is predicted. In this work, sixty seismic features are computed through employing seismological concepts, such as Gutenberg-Richter law, seismic rate changes, foreshock frequency, seismic energy release, total recurrence time. Further, Maximum Relevance and Minimum Redundancy (mRMR) criteria is applied to extract the relevant features. A Support Vector Regressor (SVR) and Hybrid Neural Network (HNN) based classification system is built to obtain the earthquake predictions. HNN is a step wise combination of three different Neural Networks, supported by Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO), to offer weight optimization at each layer. The newly computed seismic features in combination with SVR-HNN prediction system is applied on Hindukush, Chile and Southern California regions. The obtained numerical results show improved prediction performance for all the considered regions, compared to previous prediction studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes and its complications are more common in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN) than other US racial/ethnic populations. Prior reports of diabetic retinopathy (DR) prevalence in AI/AN are dated, and research on diabetic macular edema (DME) is limited. This study characterizes the recent prevalence of DR and DME in AI/AN using primary care-based teleophthalmology surveillance. Methods: This is a multi-site, clinic-based, cross-sectional study of DR and DME. The sample is composed of AI /AN patients with diabetes (n = 53,998), served by the nationally distributed Indian Health Service-Joslin Vision Network Teleophthalmology Program (IHS-JVN) in primary care clinics of US Indian Health Service (IHS), Tribal, and Urban Indian health care facilities (I/T/U) from 1 November 2011 to 31 October 2016. Patients were recruited opportunistically for a retinal examination using the IHS-JVN during their regular diabetes care. The IHS-JVN used clinically validated, non-mydriatic, retinal imaging and retinopathy assessment protocols to identify the severity levels of non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), DME, and sight threatening retinopathy (STR; a composite measure). Key social-demographic (age, gender, IHS area), diabetes-related health (diabetes therapy, duration of diabetes, A1c), and imaging technology variables were examined. The analysis calculated frequencies and percentages of severity levels of disease. Results: Prevalence of any NPDR, PDR, DME, and STR among AI/AN patients undergoing DR teleophthalmology surveillance by IHS-JVN was 17.7%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 4.2%, respectively. Prevalence was lowest in Alaska and highest among patients with A1c >/ = 8%, duration of diabetes > 10 years, or using insulin. Conclusions: Prevalence of DR in this cohort was approximately half that in previous reports for AI/AN, and prevalence of DME was less than that reported in non-AI/AN populations. A similar reduction in diabetes related end-stage renal disease in the same population and time period has been reported by other researchers. Since these two diabetic complications share a common microvasculopathic mechanism, this coincident change in prevalence may also share a common basis, possibly related to improved diabetes management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model-based epidemiological assessment is useful to support decision-making at the beginning of an emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreak. However, early forecasts are generally unreliable as little information is available in the first few incidence data points. Here, we show how past Aedes-transmitted epidemics help improve these predictions. The approach was applied to the 2015–2017 Zika virus epidemics in three islands of the French West Indies, with historical data including other Aedes-transmitted diseases (Chikungunya and Zika) in the same and other locations. Hierarchical models were used to build informative a priori distributions on the reproduction ratio and the reporting rates. The accuracy and sharpness of forecasts improved substantially when these a priori distributions were used in models for prediction. For example, early forecasts of final epidemic size obtained without historical information were 3.3 times too high on average (range: 0.2 to 5.8) with respect to the eventual size, but were far closer (1.1 times the real value on average, range: 0.4 to 1.5) using information on past CHIKV epidemics in the same places. Likewise, the 97.5% upper bound for maximal incidence was 15.3 times (range: 2.0 to 63.1) the actual peak incidence, and became much sharper at 2.4 times (range: 1.3 to 3.9) the actual peak incidence with informative a priori distributions. Improvements were more limited for the date of peak incidence and the total duration of the epidemic. The framework can adapt to all forecasting models at the early stages of emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza A virus commonly circulating in swine (IAV-S) is characterized by large genetic and antigenic diversity and, thus, improvements in different aspects of IAV-S surveillance are needed to achieve desirable goals of surveillance such as to establish the capacity to forecast with the greatest accuracy the number of influenza cases likely to arise. Advancements in modeling approaches provide the opportunity to use different models for surveillance. However, in order to make improvements in surveillance, it is necessary to assess the predictive ability of such models. This study compares the sensitivity and predictive accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) model, and the random forest (RF) model with respect to the frequency of influenza A virus (IAV) in Ontario swine. Diagnostic data on IAV submissions in Ontario swine between 2007 and 2015 were obtained from the Animal Health Laboratory (University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada). Each modeling approach was examined for predictive accuracy, evaluated by the root mean square error, the normalized root mean square error, and the model’s ability to anticipate increases and decreases in disease frequency. Likewise, we verified the magnitude of improvement offered by the ARIMA, GLARMA and RF models over a seasonal-naïve method. Using the diagnostic submissions, the occurrence of seasonality and the long-term trend in IAV infections were also investigated. The RF model had the smallest root mean square error in the prospective analysis and tended to predict increases in the number of diagnostic submissions and positive virological submissions at weekly and monthly intervals with a higher degree of sensitivity than the ARIMA and GLARMA models. The number of weekly positive virological submissions is significantly higher in the fall calendar season compared to the summer calendar season. Positive counts at weekly and monthly intervals demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Overall, this study shows that the RF model offers enhanced prediction ability over the ARIMA and GLARMA time series models for predicting the frequency of IAV infections in diagnostic submissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correct identification of sex is an important component of wildlife management because changes in sex ratios can affect population viability. Identification of sex often relies on external morphology, which can be biased by intermediate or nondistinctive morphotypes and observer experience. For unionid mussels, research has demonstrated that species misidentification is common but less attention has been given to the reliability of sex identification. To evaluate whether this is an issue, we surveyed 117 researchers on their ability to correctly identify sex of Lampsilis teres (Yellow Sandshell), a wide ranging, sexually dimorphic species. Personal background information of each observer was analyzed to identify factors that may contribute to misidentification of sex. We found that median misidentification rates were ~20% across males and females and that observers falsely identified the number of female specimens more often (~23%) than males (~10%). Misidentification rates were partially explained by geographic region of prior mussel experience and where observers learned how to identify mussels, but there remained substantial variation among observers after controlling for these factors. We also used three morphometric methods (traditional, geometric, and Fourier) to investigate whether sex could be more correctly identified statistically and found that misidentification rates for the geometric and Fourier methods (which characterize shape) were less than 5% (on average 7% and 2% for females and males, respectively). Our results show that misidentification of sex is likely common for mussels if based solely on external morphology, which raises general questions, regardless of taxonomic group, about its reliability for conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape connectivity is integral to the persistence of metapopulations of wide ranging carnivores and other terrestrial species. The objectives of this research were to investigate the landscape characteristics essential to use of areas by lynx and bobcats in northern New England, map a habitat availability model for each species, and explore connectivity across areas of the region likely to experience future development pressure. A Mahalanobis distance analysis was conducted on location data collected between 2005 and 2010 from 16 bobcats in western Vermont and 31 lynx in northern Maine to determine which variables were most consistent across all locations for each species using three scales based on average 1) local (15 minute) movement, 2) linear distance between daily locations, and 3) female home range size. The bobcat model providing the widest separation between used locations and random study area locations suggests that they cue into landscape features such as edge, availability of cover, and development density at different scales. The lynx model with the widest separation between random and used locations contained five variables including natural habitat, cover, and elevation—all at different scales. Shrub scrub habitat—where lynx’s preferred prey is most abundant—was represented at the daily distance moved scale. Cross validation indicated that outliers had little effect on models for either species. A habitat suitability value was calculated for each 30 m2 pixel across Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine for each species and used to map connectivity between conserved lands within selected areas across the region. Projections of future landscape change illustrated potential impacts of anthropogenic development on areas lynx and bobcat may use, and indicated where connectivity for bobcats and lynx may be lost. These projections provided a guide for conservation of landscape permeability for lynx, bobcat, and species relying on similar habitats in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that novice drivers tend to be young, and teenagers and young adult drivers are involved in the greatest number of accidents, it is important that we understand what factors impact the driving skills of this population of drivers. The primary aim of the present study was to understand the impact of gender, organized athletics, and video gaming on driving skills of novice drivers under real-world driving conditions. Novice driving students having less than five hours driving experience previous to a normal driving lesson were evaluated on their self-confidence (self-reported) prior to the lesson and driving skill evaluated by their instructor during the course of the lesson. Information was collected about gender, age, whether or not the students were involved in organized athletics, and the extent of their video game playing. There was no impact of gender or extent of video game playing on driving skills. Females were significantly less self-confident with driving than males, but this did not translate to gender differences in driving skills. Being involved in organized athletics—either currently or in the past—significantly enhanced driving skills in both females and males. Finally, novice drivers’ age was negatively correlated with driving skills. That is, younger novice drivers (especially males) had better driving skills than older novice drivers. This is counter to popular belief that young drivers lack technical driving skills because they have less experience behind the wheel. Based on the results of the current study, we hypothesize that the relatively high accident rate of younger drivers (especially male drivers) is most likely due to inattention to safety considerations rather than lack of technical driving ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species may become invasive after introduction to a new range because phenotypic traits pre-adapt them to spread and become dominant. In addition, adaptation to novel selection pressures in the introduced range may further increase their potential to become invasive. The diploid Leucanthemum vulgare and the tetraploid L. ircutianum are native to Eurasia and have been introduced to North America, but only L. vulgare has become invasive. To investigate whether phenotypic differences between the two species in Eurasia could explain the higher abundance of L. vulgare in North America and whether rapid evolution in the introduced range may have contributed to its invasion success, we grew 20 L. vulgare and 21 L. ircutianum populations from Eurasia and 21 L. vulgare populations from North America under standardized conditions and recorded performance and functional traits. In addition, we recorded morphological traits to investigate whether the two closely related species can be clearly distinguished by morphological means and to what extent morphological traits have changed in L. vulgare post-introduction. We found pronounced phenotypic differences between L. vulgare and L. ircutianum from the native range as well as between L. vulgare from the native and introduced ranges. The two species differed significantly in morphology but only moderately in functional or performance traits that could have explained the higher invasion success of L. vulgare in North America. In contrast, leaf morphology was similar between L. vulgare from the native and introduced range, but plants from North America flowered later, were larger and had more and larger flower heads than those from Eurasia. In summary, we found litte evidence that specific traits of L. vulgare may have pre-adapted this species to become more invasive than L. ircutianum, but our results indicate that rapid evolution in the introduced range likely contributed to the invasion success of L. vulgare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although efficacy of venlafaxine extended release (XR) for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) has been reported in previous analyses in 2002 and 2004, the sample size was rather small and estimate of safety or tolerability was not clear. The present analysis had the advantage of large sample size and provided evidence for tolerability. Methods: Literature databases were searched, including Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of science and clinical trials. 10 eligible articles were finally selected and data was extracted and logged into the Review Manager 5.3 by two independent authors. The risk of bias was evaluated by the Cochrane Collaboration’s Risk of Bias Tool and the stability of the results was assessed by sensitivity analysis. The publication bias was assessed by funnel plot and Egger’s/Begg’s test using Stata Version 12.0 software. Results: In the current meta-analysis, 10 articles (14 studies) satisfying the inclusion criteria were analyzed. As efficacy outcomes, our findings indicated venlafaxine XR was significantly more effective than placebo according to mean change of the Hamilton Rating Scale for Anxiety total scores [mean difference = 3.31, 95% confidence interval(CI) 1.44–5.18, P = 0.0005], response [odds ratio(OR) = 1.83, 95%CI 1.58–2.12, P<0.00001], and remission (OR = 2.55, 95%CI 1.36–4.78, P = 0.003). In terms of tolerability, the most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse events were nausea, dry mouth, dizziness, insomnia, somnolence, and headache. In addition, discontinuation due to all-cause (OR = 1.17, 95%CI 0.92–1.49, P = 0.19) was not significantly different between the two groups, whereas discontinuation due to adverse events was statistically higher in the venlafaxine XR group compared with the placebo treatment (OR = 2.80, 95%CI 2.21–3.54, P<0.00001) and discontinuation due to inefficacy was lower in venlafaxine than placebo treatment (OR = 0.26, 95%CI 0.17–0.40, P<0.00001). There was no significant publication bias and sensitivity analysis showed that our analysis exhibited high stability. Conclusion: We concluded that venlafaxine XR (75–225 mg/day) is an effective and well-tolerated pharmacological treatment option for adult patients with GAD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hockey is a complex and multifaceted game, yet many of the statistical tools used to evaluate performance are univariate. To garner a better understanding of hockey’s multifaceted nature, two structural equation models (SEMs) assessing the interrelations between offense, defense, and possession were built from three seasons of NHL data. Overall, it was found that the concepts of offense, defense, and possession are best understood via a small constellation of measured variables, and that offense mediates the relationship between possession and defense such that higher levels of offense leads to poorer defensive performance. These findings are discussed within the context of ranking player performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & aims: Treatment rates with interferon-based therapies for chronic hepatitis C have been low. Our aim was to perform a systematic review of available data to estimate the rates and barriers for antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis searching MEDLINE, SCOPUS through March 2016 and abstracts from recent major liver meetings for primary literature with available hepatitis C treatment rates. Random-effects models were used to estimate effect sizes and meta-regression to test for potential sources of heterogeneity. Results: We included 39 studies with 476,443 chronic hepatitis C patients. The overall treatment rate was 25.5% (CI: 21.1–30.5%) and by region 34% for Europe, 28.3% for Asia/Pacific, and 18.7% for North America (p = 0.008). On multivariable meta-regression, practice setting (tertiary vs. population-based, p = 0.04), region (Europe vs. North America p = 0.004), and data source (clinical chart review vs. administrative database, p = 0.025) remained significant predictors of heterogeneity. The overall treatment eligibility rate was 52.5%, and 60% of these received therapy. Of the patients who refused treatment, 16.2% cited side effects, 13.8% cited cost as reasons for treatment refusal, and 30% lacked access to specialist care. Conclusions: Only one-quarter of chronic hepatitis C patients received antiviral therapy in the pre-direct acting antiviral era. Treatment rates should improve in the new interferon-free era but, cost, co-morbidities, and lack of specialist care will likely remain and need to be addressed. Linkage to care should even be of higher priority now that well-tolerated cure is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. The aim of this study was to explore the potential that exists in the broad and rich volunteer-collected dataset maintained by the USA-NPN for constructing models predicting the timing of phenological transition across species’ ranges within the continental United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth (2009-present). Whether data exhibiting such limitations can be used to develop predictive models appropriate for use across large geographic regions has not yet been explored. Methods: We constructed predictive models for phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation—thermal time models with a fixed start date. Results: Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Remarkably, given the limited temporal depth of this dataset and the simple modeling approach used, fifteen of these models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error. The majority of these models represented the “breaking leaf buds” and “leaves” phenophases and represented shrub or tree growth forms. Accumulated growing degree day (GDD) thresholds that emerged ranged from 454 GDDs (Amelanchier canadensis-breaking leaf buds) to 1,300 GDDs (Prunus serotina-open flowers). Such candidate thermal time thresholds can be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing of these phenophase transition. In addition, many of the candidate models that emerged were suitable for use across the majority of the species’ geographic ranges. Real-time and forecast maps of phenophase transitions could support a wide range of natural resource management applications, including invasive plant management, issuing asthma and allergy alerts, and anticipating frost damage for crops in vulnerable states. Implications: Our finding that several viable thermal time threshold models that work across the majority of the species ranges could be constructed from the USA-NPN database provides clear evidence that great potential exists this dataset to develop more enhanced predictive models for additional species and phenophases. Further, the candidate models that emerged have immediate utility for supporting a wide range of management applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sorghum and millet grow in some of the most heterogeneous and austere agroecologies around the world. These crops are amongst the top five cereal sources of food and feed. Yet, few studies document the impact of sorghum and millet genetic enhancement. The Internal Rate of Return (ROR) is one of the most popular metrics used to measure the economic return on investment on agricultural research and development (R&D). This study conducted a meta-analysis of 59 sorghum and millet ROR estimates obtained from 25 sources published between 1958 and 2015. The average rate of return to sorghum and millet R&D investment is between 54–76 percent per year. All studies computed social rather than private RORs because the technologies were developed using public funds originating from host country National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS) and international organizations such as the INTSORMIL CRSP, ICRISAT and others. Nearly three quarter of the studies focused only on sorghum (72 percent) and around one tenth of the studies (8 percent) on millet. Regression models analyzed the determinants of variation in the reported RORs. Results show that ex-ante type and self-evaluated type of analyses are positively and significantly associated with the ROR estimates. Compared to estimates conducted by a university, results from international institutions and other mixed organizations provided significantly smaller estimates. Estimates conducted at national level also are significantly lower than those conducted at sub-national levels. The ROR is higher for studies conducted in the United States and for those conducted more recently. The study also reconstructed modified internal rate of return (MIRR) for a sub-sample of the reported RORs following recent methods from the literature. These results show that the MIRR estimates are significantly smaller than the reported ROR estimates. Both results indicate that investment in sorghum and millet research generates high social rates of return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When individuals are highly committed to their romantic relationship, they are more likely to engage in pro-relationship maintenance mechanisms. The present research expanded on the notion that commitment redirects self-oriented goals to consider broader relational goals and examined whether commitment interacts with a promotion and prevention focus to activate derogation of attractive alternatives. Three studies used cross-sectional and experimental approaches. Study 1 showed that romantically involved individuals predominantly focused on promotion, but not prevention, reported less initial attraction to an attractive target than single individuals, especially when highly committed to their relationship. Study 2 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in a promotion focus, compared to those in prevention focus, reported less initial attraction, but only when more committed to their relationship. Regardless of regulatory focus manipulation, more committed individuals were also less likely to perceive quality among alternative scenarios and to be attentive to alternative others in general. Finally, Study 3 showed that romantically involved individuals induced in promotion focus and primed with high commitment reported less initial attraction, than those primed with low commitment, or than those induced in prevention focus. Once again, for these latter no differences occurred according to commitment prime. Together, the findings suggest that highly committed promotion focused individuals consider broader relationship goals and activate relationship maintenance behaviors such as derogation of attractive alternatives to promote their relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child-staff ratios are a key quality indicator in early childhood education and care (ECEC) programs. Better ratios are believed to improve child outcomes by increasing opportunities for individual interactions and educational instruction from staff. The purpose of this systematic review, and where possible, meta-analysis, was to evaluate the association between child-staff ratios in preschool ECEC programs and children’s outcomes. Searches of Medline, PsycINFO, ERIC, websites of large datasets and reference sections of all retrieved articles were conducted up to July 3, 2015. Cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that evaluated the relationship between child-staff ratios in ECEC classrooms serving preschool aged children and child outcomes were independently identified by two reviewers. Data were independently extracted from included studies by two raters and differences between raters were resolved by consensus. Searches revealed 29 eligible studies (31 samples). Child-staff ratios ranged from 5 to 14.5 preschool-aged children per adult with a mean of 8.65. All 29 studies were included in the systematic review. However, the only meta-analysis that could be conducted was based on three studies that explored associations between ratios and children’s receptive language. Results of this meta-analysis were not significant. Results of the qualitative systematic review revealed few significant relationships between child-staff ratios and child outcomes construed broadly. Thus, the available literature reveal few, if any, relationships between child-staff ratios in preschool ECEC programs and children’s developmental outcomes. Substantial heterogeneity in the assessment of ratios, outcomes measured, and statistics used to capture associations limited quantitative synthesis. Other methodological limitations of the research integrated in this synthesis are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: At the turn of the 21st century, studies evaluating the change in incidence of appendicitis over time have reported inconsistent findings. Objectives: We compared the differences in the incidence of appendicitis derived from a pathology registry versus an administrative database in order to validate coding in administrative databases and establish temporal trends in the incidence of appendicitis. Design: We conducted a population-based comparative cohort study to identify all individuals with appendicitis from 2000 to2008. Setting & Participants: Two population-based data sources were used to identify cases of appendicitis: 1) a pathology registry (n = 8,822); and 2) a hospital discharge abstract database (n = 10,453). Intervention & Main Outcome: The administrative database was compared to the pathology registry for the following a priori analyses: 1) to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of administrative codes; 2) to compare the annual incidence of appendicitis; and 3) to assess differences in temporal trends. Temporal trends were assessed using a generalized linear model that assumed a Poisson distribution and reported as an annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were stratified by perforated and non-perforated appendicitis. Results: The administrative database (PPV = 83.0%) overestimated the incidence of appendicitis (100.3 per 100,000) when compared to the pathology registry (84.2 per 100,000). Codes for perforated appendicitis were not reliable (PPV = 52.4%) leading to overestimation in the incidence of perforated appendicitis in the administrative database (34.8 per 100,000) as compared to the pathology registry (19.4 per 100,000). The incidence of appendicitis significantly increased over time in both the administrative database (APC = 2.1%; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.8) and pathology registry (APC = 4.1; 95% CI: 3.1, 5.0). Conclusion & Relevance: The administrative database overestimated the incidence of appendicitis, particularly among perforated appendicitis. Therefore, studies utilizing administrative data to analyze perforated appendicitis should be interpreted cautiously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ingestion of water has been associated with general wellbeing. When water intake is insufficient, symptoms such as thirst, fatigue and impaired memory result. Currently there are no instruments to assess water consumption associated with wellbeing. The objective of our study was to develop and validate such an instrument in urban, low socioeconomic, adult Mexican population. Methods: To construct the Water Ingestion-Related Wellbeing Instrument (WIRWI), a qualitative study in which wellbeing related to everyday practices and experiences in water consumption were investigated. To validate the WIRWI a formal, five-process procedure was used. Face and content validation were addressed, consistency was assessed by exploratory and confirmatory psychometric factor analyses, repeatability, reproducibility and concurrent validity were assessed by conducting correlation tests with other measures of wellbeing such as a quality of life instrument, the SF-36, and objective parameters such as urine osmolality, 24-hour urine total volume and others. Results: The final WIRWI is composed of 17 items assessing physical and mental dimensions. Items were selected based on their content and face validity. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses yielded Cronbach's alpha of 0.87 and 0.86, respectively. The final confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that the model estimates were satisfactory for the constructs. Statistically significant correlations with the SF-36, total liquid consumption and simple water consumption were observed. Conclusion: The resulting WIRWI is a reliable tool for assessing wellbeing associated with consumption of plain water in Mexican adults and could be useful for similar groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007–2013. These data were split between the years 2007–2011 (historic period) and 2012–2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1–12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1–12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4–16 weeks. Conclusions/Significance: An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research suggests that more and more citizens select news and information that is congruent with their existing political preferences. This increase in political selective exposure (PSE) has allegedly led to an increase in polarization. The vast majority of studies stem from the US case with a particular media and political system. We contend that there are good reasons to believe PSE is less prevalent in other systems. We test this using latent profile analysis with national survey data from the Netherlands (n = 2,833). We identify four types of media use profiles and indeed only find partial evidence of PSE. In particular, we find that public broadcasting news cross-cuts all cleavages. This research note offers an important antidote in what is considered a universal phenomenon. We do find, however, a relatively large segment of citizens opting out of news consumption despite the readily available news in today’s media landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliably estimating wildlife abundance is fundamental to effective management. Aerial surveys are one of the only spatially robust tools for estimating large mammal populations, but statistical sampling methods are required to address detection biases that affect accuracy and precision of the estimates. Although various methods for correcting aerial survey bias are employed on large mammal species around the world, these have rarely been rigorously validated. Several populations of feral horses (Equus caballus) in the western United States have been intensively studied, resulting in identification of all unique individuals. This provided a rare opportunity to test aerial survey bias correction on populations of known abundance. We hypothesized that a hybrid method combining simultaneous double-observer and sightability bias correction techniques would accurately estimate abundance. We validated this integrated technique on populations of known size and also on a pair of surveys before and after a known number was removed. Our analysis identified several covariates across the surveys that explained and corrected biases in the estimates. All six tests on known populations produced estimates with deviations from the known value ranging from -8.5% to +13.7% and <0.7 standard errors. Precision varied widely, from 6.1% CV to 25.0% CV. In contrast, the pair of surveys conducted around a known management removal produced an estimated change in population between the surveys that was significantly larger than the known reduction. Although the deviation between was only 9.1%, the precision estimate (CV = 1.6%) may have been artificially low. It was apparent that use of a helicopter in those surveys perturbed the horses, introducing detection error and heterogeneity in a manner that could not be corrected by our statistical models. Our results validate the hybrid method, highlight its potentially broad applicability, identify some limitations, and provide insight and guidance for improving survey designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rates of psychopathology are elevated in marginalized and unstably housed persons, underscoring the need for applicable clinical measures for these populations. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) is a clinical instrument principally developed for use in schizophrenia to identify the presence and severity of psychopathology symptoms. The current study investigates whether a reliable and valid PANSS factor structure emerges in a marginally housed, heterogeneous sample recruited from the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver where substance use disorders and psychiatric illness are pervasive. Participants (n = 270) underwent structured clinical assessments including the PANSS and then were randomly assigned to either exploratory (EFA) or confirmatory factor analytic (CFA) subsamples. EFA pointed to a novel three factor PANSS. This solution was supported by CFA. All retained items (28 out of 30) load significantly upon hypothesized factors and model goodness of fit analyses are in the acceptable to good range. Each of the three first-order factor constructs, labeled Psychosis/Disorganized, Negative Symptoms/Hostility, and Insight/Awareness, contributed significantly to measurement of a higher-order psychopathology construct. Further, the latent structure of this 3-factor solution appears temporally consistent over one-year. This PANSS factor structure appears valid and reliable for use in persons with multimorbidity, including substance use disorders. The structure is somewhat distinct from existing solutions likely due to the unique characteristics of this marginally housed sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]