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The objective of this article is to discuss the development of statistical and probabilistic reasoning in childhood as a result of an interdisciplinary project, involving the fields of mathematics, statistics, and life sciences. This is a case study with three 10-year-old students from a Brazilian school. The children's oral and written narratives are used as a methodological path. It is an investigation process that examines human actions and considers social practices, subjective experience, identity, beliefs, emotions, values, context, and complexity. The results show that an interdisciplinary study involving life sciences, mathematics and statistics promoted the development of statistical and probabilistic reasoning, appropriate to the age group, enabling the children to positively rescale their eating habits.

In this article, we first analyze the situation of statistics education in Brazil, within an international context of interest for this discipline. Secondly, we aim to answer the following research question: How has doctoral research in statistics, probability, and combinatorics education evolved in Brazil? For this purpose, we analyzed the Brazilian doctoral research production from 1994 to 2021. We identified 102 completed dissertations in doctoral programs over the last 28 years. Within this research context, we analyzed the graduate programs, advisors, research themes, grade levels and participants studied, theoretical frameworks, and the data analysis methodologies employed. Even though doctoral research has developed slowly and irregularly, there has been an increase in the number of studies, driven by the growth of graduate degrees offered in the last few years.

This study aims to analyse the reasoning that children and adults with the same school level use to assess and justify the fairness of games, considering aspects of probability such as randomness, sample space, and comparison of probabilities. Data collection included a Piagetian clinical interview based on games of chance. The results showed that the participants' judgments about the fairness of the games depends mainly on the understanding about independence of events, analysis of the sample space, and perception of proportionality when comparing probabilities, and that they have misunderstandings about these ideas. The similar low performance of adults and children on probabilistic reasoning, indicates that the maturity and experience of these adults were not enough to properly develop probabilistic reasoning and to instrumentalize it to assess the fairness of a game consistently. Thus, teaching interventions to expand and consolidate students' learning in the field of probability are recommended and the activities presented in this study may serve as a basis for such interventions.

A simple analysis of the learners' academic status at different levels of education shows that these learners have poor performance in probability and statistics subject and they have negative attitude to this subject. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the attitude and academic achievement of 134 students of three classes of a compulsory subject of the fourth period aimed at probabilistic and statistical content, at a federal university, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, at the end of 2017. We used the Auzmendi Scale (1992) that considers attitudes towards mathematics and statistics, at the same time, being composed of five basic factors (utility, anxiety, trust, pleasure and motivation). Some of the results indicate that there is an indication that students lack confidence in solving statistical and probabilistic problems, noting that there is no great anxiety about Probability and Statistics, however, they do not feel confident about solving problems probabilistic and statistical. And they present initial motivation and this fact generates better results in the first evaluation of the discipline that deals with basic concepts of Combinatorial Analysis and Probability.

This article aims to investigate the teaching of chance in the context of tactile models (TM) from the perspective of the Theory of Register of Semiotic Representations. In this qualitative research, we sought to identify the different types of semiotic registers and transformations (treatment and conversion), in the solutions of the tasks of the Jefferson's Random Walks Teaching Sequence of children in early childhood education (aged 5 years). We found the presence of different registers, most frequently mother tongue and figurative language, and of conversions. Finally, the TM proved versatile, particularly in addressing the concept of chance, for the mobilization of different semiotic registers and transformations, which can encourage teachers to use this material to work concepts in the school context.

Conceptual appropriation is central to the teaching-learning and development processes. The intellectual stage is expressed by writing, verbalization and the use of the object under construction, among other means of expression. This paper discusses the conceptual appropriation by means of the creation of collaborative situations in which the argumentative language mediates the construction of knowledge. Supported by Vygotsky's cultural-historical theory, Discussion Circle is an activity that consists of presenting some conceptual questions for the class to discuss in small groups initially, and then in a larger group, at a general meeting. Hence, we present the central ideas and theoretical support for the development of this activity and comment on a practice that took place during a course of Basic Statistics, part of the Teaching Program in Mathematics. Results indicate the conceptual development of students, which allows for the improvement of elementary school mathematics' teacher education in terms of statistics studies, which is a strategic matter of importance for the broadening of society's knowledge about this area.

This paper aimed to highlight the process of therapist direct contingent responding to shape client behavior in two Child Behavior Analytic Therapy (CBAT) cases using transitional probabilities. The Functional Analytic Psychotherapy Rating Scale (FAPRS) was used to code client behaviors and the Multidimensional System for Coding Behaviors in Therapist-Client Interaction (SiMCCIT) was used to code therapist behavior. Measures of behavior duration and transitional probability were taken from nine sample sessions for Client 1 and 10 sample sessions for Client 2. The first treatment was successful and lasted 18 sessions, while the second treatment was unsuccessful. In the first case, coding results showed that problem behaviors (CRB1) decreased, and improvement behaviors (CRB2) increased. In the second case, CRB1 predominated through seven sessions, and CRB2 did not show stability. Transitional probabilities indicated regularities in therapist responding to the client's clinically relevant behaviors, especially with approval after CRB2. It is concluded that contingent responding with approval functioned to shape client improvements in the first case, but not in the second case. (Contains 2 tables, 2 figures, and 1 footnote.)

This article presents a study on the variables promoting student retention in distance undergraduate courses at Federal University of Pará, aiming to help school managers minimize student attrition and maximize retention until graduation. The theoretical background is based on Rovai's Composite Model and the methodological approach is conditional probability analysis using the Bayesian Networks graphical model. Network modeling has shown that among internal factors after admission to the course (as defined in the Composite Model) face-to-face tutorial sessions need to be better planned and executed, learning materials are still not adequate to online course specificities and the support structure needs to be remodeled.

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded and complemented by the students' written notes. The analysis was carried out under a historical-cultural perspective. We have identified how some notions about frequency, chances, possibility and probability are intuitive and how others are mistaken. Subjectivist probabilistic thinking is present in students' ideas, and this indicates the need to develop teaching approaches that confront and overcome these ideas.

The objective of this paper is to discuss how blind students learn basic concepts of probability using the tactile model proposed by Vita (2012). Among the activities were part of the teaching sequence "Jefferson's Random Walk", in which students built a tree diagram (using plastic trays, foam cards, and toys), and pictograms in 3D (using the toys) to represent the possible ways in which Jefferson can visit his five friends and the expected frequencies of visits. The analysis of students' answers was based on the SOLO taxonomy, and developed from initial prestructural responses to final responses that were classified at the relational level. The study suggests adaptations of materials and teaching methods for helping blind students to learn about probability.

The objective of this paper is to discuss aspects of high school students' learning of probability in a context where they are supported by the statistical software R. We report on the application of a teaching experiment, constructed using the perspective of Gal's probabilistic literacy and Papert's constructionism. The results show improvement in students' learning of basic concepts, such as: random experiment, estimation of probabilities, and calculation of probabilities using a tree diagram. The use of R allowed students to extend their reasoning beyond that developed from paper-and-pencil approaches, since it made it possible for them to work with a larger number of simulations, and go beyond the standard equiprobability assumption in coin tosses.

This paper presents discussions on stochastic education in early childhood, based on two doctoral research projects carried out with groups of preschool teachers from public schools in the Brazilian cities of Suzano and São Paulo who were participating in a continuing education program. The objective is to reflect on the analysis of two didactic situations related to the learning of statistics in mathematics classes. The results show evidence of the mathematics learning of the teachers who teach mathematics in early childhood. They also highlight the mathematical and statistical relations that children are able to establish when carrying out stochastic activities included in their childhood context.

The aim of this article is to compare the schooling levels of individuals with the demands of the Brazilian labour market. The results demonstrate the high probability of compatibility between occupation and schooling levels. But high propensities for under-education were identified associated with skin colour and position in family. The results are consistent with Brazilian social inequality. In conclusion, although there is a dearth of qualified labour in specific segments, the widespread existence of compatibility between workers' occupations and their schooling levels suggests that companies have adapted themselves to the educational deficiencies of their workers. (Contains 6 tables and 1 note.)

A new form of composition of the indicators employed to generate the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is presented here. This form of composition is based on the assumption that random errors affect the measurement of each indicator. This assumption allows for replacing the vector of evaluations according to each indicator by vectors of probabilities of being the best or the worst according to such attribute. The probabilistic composition of such probabilities of preference according to each indicator into probabilities of being the best or the worst according to all of them generates indices that may unveil, on one hand, performances to be followed and, on the other hand, extreme conditions that an additive composition would hide. Differences between the results of application of the diverse forms of composition are examined in the case of the HDI and in the case of the districts version of the HDI employed to compare Brazilian municipalities. It is verified that the smallest correlation between the education enrolment rate and the other indicators in the Brazilian case enlarges such differences.

The aim of this article is to compare the schooling levels of individuals with the demands of the Brazilian labour market. The results demonstrate the high probability of compatibility between occupation and schooling levels. But high propensities for under-education were identified associated with the skin colour and position in the family. The results are consistent with the Brazilian social inequality. In conclusion, although there is a dearth of qualified labour in specific segments, the widespread existence of compatibility between workers' occupations and their schooling levels suggests that companies have adapted themselves to the educational deficiencies of their workers. (Contains 4 tables and 1 note.)

In Brazil, young Black males are far more likely to experience criminal violence (e.g., homicide, police lethality and assault) than young White males. However, race might also affect the ex-post scenario; that is, Blacks and Whites may go to the police seeking solutions against criminal violence with different probabilities. In this paper, we identified and quantified the sources of the racial differential in accessing justice between Blacks and Whites in Brazil. Using microdata from the Brazilian Household Survey, we used the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to isolate the discriminatory component from social indicators correlated with access to justice. We found that structural attributes explain only part (around 60%) of the racial differential in accessing justice. A significant portion of the discrepancy (at least 40%) provides evidence of racial discrimination. In addition, the spatial dynamics revealed that the Northeast region of Brazil presents the most discriminatory scenario in the country, a region historically characterised by higher social inequalities and violent mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally, the counting of deaths based on gender identity and sexual orientation has been a challenge for health systems. In most cases, non-governmental organizations have dedicated themselves to this work. Despite these efforts in generating information, the scarcity of official data presents significant limitations in policy formulation and actions guided by population needs. Therefore, this manuscript aims to evaluate the accuracy, potential, and limits of probabilistic data relationships to yield information on deaths according to gender identity and sexual orientation in the State of Rio de Janeiro., Methods: This study evaluated the accuracy of the probabilistic record linkage to obtain information on deaths according to gender and sexual orientation. Data from two information systems were used from June 15, 2015 to December 31, 2020. We constructed nine probabilistic data relationship strategies and identified the performance and cutoff points of the best strategy., Results: The best data blocking strategy was established through logical blocks with the first and last names, birthdate, and mother's name in the pairing strategy. With a population base of 80,178 records, 1556 deaths were retrieved. With an area under the curve of 0.979, this strategy presented 93.26% accuracy, 98.46% sensitivity, and 90.04% specificity for the cutoff point ≥ 17.9 of the data relationship score. The adoption of the cutoff point optimized the manual review phase, identifying 2259 (90.04%) of the 2509 false pairs and identifying 1532 (98.46%) of the 1556 true pairs., Conclusion: With the identification of possible strategies for determining probabilistic data relationships, the retrieval of information on mortality according to sexual and gender markers has become feasible. Based on information from the daily routine of health services, the formulation of public policies that consider the LGBTQ + population more closely reflects the reality experienced by these population groups., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks. • Risk of fumonisins in corn was assessed using quantitative risk assessment; • Temperature plays a critical role in fumonisin incidence and level in corn; • Reduction in fumonisin of up to 42% when cultivation at the best time was assessed; • Strong correlation between fumonisins levels and the geographical region was found; • Low temperatures and high humidity increased the probability of fumonisin in corn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The regulation of working hours is governed by legal standards in formal employment. While the association between long working hours and various health outcomes has been extensively studied, there is limited evidence regarding Brazil. The objective of this study was to investigate the association among working hours, employment status, and self-rated health (SRH), taking into account differences between men and women in a national representative sample of the working population in Brazil., Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a representative sample of 33,713 workers in Brazil to assess self-rated health (SRH). We examined the associations between working hours and employment status, categorizing working hours as standard (40-44 h per week) or long (> 44 h per week), and employment status as formal or informal. Logistic regression models were employed, adjusting for sociodemographic, occupational characteristics, and health behaviors. Probabilities of negative SRH were calculated for men and women in different exposure profiles. Results were stratified by gender, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were applied to the findings., Results: The prevalence of long working hours was higher among informal workers for both men and women. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) results revealed that informal employment (AORwomen = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.13-2.07 and AORmen = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.22-1.96) and long working hours (AORwomen = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43 and AORmen = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.00-1.30) were independently associated with negative SRH. Significant interactions between long working hours and informal employment were observed. Among individuals with the same exposure profile, women who engaged in long working hours had a higher probability of reporting negative SRH compared to men., Conclusions: The results of this study are in line with the literature, as differences between men and women in the likelihood of negative self-rated health were observed. The adverse health effects underscore the importance of implementing intersectoral actions to inform the revision of regulations concerning weekly working hours and the expansion of informal employment in low- and middle-income countries., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the second most common protozoosis that affects people around the world. The aim of this study is to understand how environmental and socioeconomic factors, as well as VL control and surveillance interventions, influence the spread and detection of VL cases in Pernambuco state (Brazil). A novel model was developed to analyze cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, enabling the quantification of the association of these variables with two processes: the probability of "invasion" (emergence of new cases) at municipalities by VL, and the probability of detecting cases not reported in municipalities that have already been invaded. Pernambuco state identified 1,410 cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, with an average of 128 cases per year and average incidence of 1.28/100 thousand people. These cases were distributed in 77.1% (142/184) of the municipalities, and 54.8% (773/1,410) of them were autochthonous. Our model reveals that the proportion of agriculture was positively associated with VL invasion probability. We also find that municipalities that are closer to notification centers and/or that have received technical training and support tend to have higher detection rates of VL cases. Taken together, these results suggest that a municipality with almost no agriculture and that received technical training, located close to a notification center, is unlikely to be invaded if no cases have ever been detected. On the other hand, a municipality that is far from the notification center, with no technical training, with a large agricultural area might have already been invaded but the surveillance system might have routinely failed to detect VL cases due to low detection probability. By disentangling the processes of invasion and detection, we were able to generate insights that are likely to be useful for the strategic allocation of VL prevention and control interventions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Machado et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The main objective of this study is to propose different probabilistic models for adjusting the trend component, since it significantly influences the quality of the spatio-temporal interpolation of rainfalls. We used the monthly total precipitation data of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) for the period of 31 years, 1989-2019. The SFRB occupies 8% of the whole Brazilian territory, mostly located in the Northeast Brazilian region. For the trend component, we propose the fitted GAMLSS models by comparing different probability distribution families, which in most cases include the characteristics of these data. The results indicate the existence of a spatio-temporal pattern of the residues obtained from the adjustment of the trend with zero adjusted Gamma distribution for the accumulated monthly precipitation. The adjustment revealed a spatial dependence of up to 873 km between the pluviometric stations and temporal autocorrelation of approximately 1.6 months. The methodology used in this study enabled us to create rainfall maps, interpolating unobserved locations in differences years. The projection of these maps to the SFRB is considered extremely important for planning and implementing activities related to water resources across the river basin.

The recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem and to simulate the operation of water systems in different scenarios. The present study applies mathematical modeling to the hourly pluviometric precipitation data simulation. A pluviographical data set from October 1980 to December 2007 was used in the study. Precipitation data sets were obtained through daily pluviometric digitalization from the Meteorologic Station of Epagri at Urussanga, in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil (latitude 28° 31' S and longitude 48° 19' W). To simulate the hourly rain series, the stochastic model was modified based on the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model with six parameters. Those parameters were fitted by minimizing a function related to the analytical expressions that define the average, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient at lag 1 and the probability of a dry period related to the estimated values from the observed data. Ten series were simulated for 100 years of data. Data analyses and results showed that fitting Bartlett-Lewis model parameters makes it possible to simulate hourly rainfall while preserving precipitation statistical properties at several temporal aggregation levels. In general, the probability of dry periods tended to be overestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great importance to know the rain distribution in the region of Tangará da Serra (latitude 14°37′55″S, longitude 57°28′05″W and altitude 488 m), as it is an agricultural region, which makes such information essential for an adequate planning, maximization of agricultural potential and optimization of hydric resources. Thus, this work was aimed at evaluating the annual, monthly and ten-day pluviometric variability, and also quantifying the number of dry and rainy days and different levels of rain probability for the region. Pluviometric data provided by ′Agência Nacional de Águas′ (ANA) were used to analyze a period of 38 years (from January 1970 to December 2007). Precipitation behavior in Tangará da Serra has annual and monthly variations, constituting two well defined seasons - a dry one from May to September, and a rainy one from October to April. Annual variability during the analyzed period corresponds to the maximum value of 2,861, minimum of 1,404 and average of 1,830 mm, respectively. The incomplete gamma function adequately expresses precipitation probability in Tangará da Serra. Precipitation averages range from 40 to 50% probability for rainy months and from 30 to 40% for dry ones. According to the results, this type of research might help the elaboration and development of irrigation projects in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of depression and correlate clinical and demographic characteristics in pregnant women assisted by the public health system in the city of Pelotas, RS, Brazil. Method: We performed a cross-sectional study focused on pregnant women assisted by the public health service. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to screen for depression. Results: In a sample of 1,264 pregnant women aged 12-46 years, 21.1% (n = 255) presented a depressive episode during pregnancy. The presence of depression was associated with older age, lower education, lack of a cohabiting partner, not being primiparous, planned pregnancy, abortion thoughts, psychological or psychiatric treatment, smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy, and stressful events. Conclusion: Pregnant women assisted by the Brazilian public health system presented a high prevalence of depression. Psychiatric history, lack of support, and stressful events increase the probability of antenatal depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Little is known about soft tissue sarcomas (STS) in Brazil, once the federal statistics regarding estimates on incidence and mortality of the most common cancers that affect the Brazilian population currently do not include STS. This study aims to perform a broad evaluation and description of the epidemiological profile, access to treatment and main clinical outcomes of the Brazilian STS patient. A population-based cohort study of 66,825 patients who underwent procedures related to STS treatment registered in the Brazilian public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde, SUS) databases. Median age was 57 years, 30% of them older than 65 years and 50.7% of the cohort was female. The majority, 50,383 patients (75.4%), was diagnosed between 2008 and 2015. Most prevalent anatomic sites were upper and lower limbs (12.6%) and the registry of sarcomas without a specific location comprehended 29.7% of the cohort. The majority of patients resided in the Northeast (40.2% of the patients). Surgery was the first treatment modality in 77.7% of the cases. For survival analysis, only patients with stage and histological grade information were included. The 1-, 5- and 10-year survival rate of the patients was, respectively, 75.4% (95% CI = 74.1-76.7%), 43.4% (95% CI = 41.5-45.5%) and 18.6% (95% CI = 14.8-23.3%)., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The analysis of precipitation data is extremely important for strategic planning and decision-making in various natural systems, as well as in planning and preparing for a drought period. The drought is responsible for several impacts on the economy of Northeast Brazil (NEB), mainly in the agricultural and livestock sectors. This study analyzed the fit of 2-parameter distributions gamma (GAM), log-normal (LNORM), Weibull (WEI), generalized Pareto (GP), Gumbel (GUM) and normal (NORM) to monthly precipitation data from 293 rainfall stations across NEB, in the period 1988-2017. The maximum likelihood (ML) method was used to estimate the parameters to fit the models and the selection of the model was based on a modification of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. The results showed the chosen 2-parameter distributions to be flexible enough to describe the studied monthly precipitation data. The GAM and WEI models showed the overall best fits, but the LNORM and GP models gave the best fits in certain months of the year and regions that differed from the others in terms of their average precipitation.

Objective: To compare official mapping with probabilistic mapping of infestation by Aedes spp. in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil., Methods: This was an ecological study using data from samples of mosquito breeding sites collected in 2016-2017; official classification was obtained from epidemiological reports, and infestation per municipality and week was estimated by fitting a dynamic site-occupancy model to data from municipal epidemiological surveillance., Results: 187,245 samples collected in 473 municipalities returned 10,648 detections of Aedes aegypti, and 8,414 detections of Aedes albopictus; official mapping agrees with probabilistic mapping in municipalities in the northwestern and western regions of the state. The mappings are not in agreement in the eastern, central, northeastern and southern regions, revealing municipalities officially not infested but with high probability of infestation and notification of arbovirus infection., Conclusion: While official classification identified critically infested municipalities in the state's northwestern and western regions, it did not identify infestation in municipalities with possible false zero errors and where infestation varies over time.

Besides increasing the amount of data that can be used in a fitting process, the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) also assesses the quality of weather station networks. This technique assumes that it is possible to form homogeneous groups of meteorological series presenting independent and identically distributed data. Based on the hypothesis that such homogeneous groups can be formed under tropical-subtropical conditions, this study applied the RFA to assess the probability of one-day annual maximum rainfall in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Critical limits used in previous studies to declare a region/group as 'acceptable homogeneous' (H≤1.00) or to select a distribution (|Z|≤1.64) were evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. While the limit H≤1 is appropriate, the limit |Z|≤1.64 may lead to unacceptably high rates of rejecting a true null hypothesis. This statement is particularly true for the general logistic distribution. A computational algorithm allowing the selection of critical limits corresponding to pre-specified probabilities of rejecting a true null hypothesis is provided. Considering the new critical limits, data from one of the largest weather station networks of the State have been pooled into four homogeneous groups. Both generalized logistic and extreme value distributions are recommended for the probabilistic assessment of such groups.

Analyses of urban scaling laws assume that observations in different cities are independent of the existence of nearby cities. Here we introduce generative models and data-analysis methods that overcome this limitation by modelling explicitly the effect of interactions between individuals at different locations. Parameters that describe the scaling law and the spatial interactions are inferred from data simultaneously, allowing for rigorous (Bayesian) model comparison and overcoming the problem of defining the boundaries of urban regions. Results in five different datasets show that including spatial interactions typically leads to better models and a change in the exponent of the scaling law., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The evaluation of cultivars using multi-environment trials (MET) is an important step in plant breeding programs. One of the objectives of these evaluations is to understand the genotype by environment interaction (GEI). A method of determining the effect of GEI on the performance of cultivars is based on studies of adaptability and stability. Initial studies were based on linear regression; however, these methodologies have limitations, mainly in trials with genetic or statistical unbalanced, heterogeneity of residual variances, and genetic covariance. An alternative would be the use of random regression models (RRM), in which the behavior of the genotypes is characterized as a reaction norm using longitudinal data or repeated measurements and information regarding a covariance function. The objective of this work was the application of RRM in the study of the behavior of common bean cultivars using a MET, based on Legendre polynomials and genotype-ideotype distances. We used a set of 13 trials, which were classified as unfavorable or favorable environments. The results revealed that RRM enables the prediction of the genotypic values of cultivars in environments where they were not evaluated with high accuracy values, thereby circumventing the unbalanced of the experiments. From these values, it was possible to measure the genotypic adaptability according to ideotypes, according to their reaction norms. In addition, the stability of the cultivars can be interpreted as variation in the behavior of the ideotype. The use of ideotypes based on real data allowed a better comparison of the performance of cultivars across environments. The use of RRM in plant breeding is a good alternative to understand the behavior of cultivars in a MET, especially when we want to quantify the adaptability and stability of genotypes., Competing Interests: NO authors have competing interests.

Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreover, the mathematical modelling of the pandemic generally. We determine epidemiological distributions for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using a large dataset ( N = 21 000 - 157 000) from the Brazilian Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe database. A joint Bayesian subnational model with partial pooling is used to simultaneously describe the 26 states and one federal district of Brazil, and shows significant variation in the mean of the symptom-onset-to-death time, with ranges between 11.2 and 17.8 days across the different states, and a mean of 15.2 days for Brazil. We find strong evidence in favour of specific probability density function choices: for example, the gamma distribution gives the best fit for onset-to-death and the generalized lognormal for onset-to-hospital-admission. Our results show that epidemiological distributions have considerable geographical variation, and provide the first estimates of these distributions in a low and middle-income setting. At the subnational level, variation in COVID-19 outcome timings are found to be correlated with poverty, deprivation and segregation levels, and weaker correlation is observed for mean age, wealth and urbanicity.

Cyantraniliprole was recently registered for controlling the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei, the main coffee pest in the world. In this study, baseline determination and resistance monitoring to cyantraniliprole were carried out in Brazilian populations of H. hampei. Evaluations were carried out for three years with representative field-collected populations from nine coffee-producing states in Brazil, using artificial diet containing the insecticide. The likelihood of control failure due to cyantraniliprole resistance was also determined. Populations from Campo do Meio, Linhares and Jaú were more susceptible (<2-fold resistance) to cyantraniliprole than populations from Patrocínio and Londrina (17-fold). Nonetheless, the frequency of cyantraniliprole resistance insects was low and not significant throughout the regions survey and the likelihood of control failure was negligible. Therefore, cyantraniliprole remains an important management tool against the coffee berry borer without current problems of control failure. However, enough field variation in susceptibility to cyantraniliprole exists justifying attention and careful management of this insecticide to prevent quick development of insecticide resistance in populations of this insect pest species., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Purpose: In this study we investigated a set of 100 sentence contexts and their cloze probabilities to develop a database of linguistic stimuli for Brazilian Portuguese children and adolescents. The study also examined age-related changes on cloze probabilities, and specified the predictor effects of age and cloze probabilities on idiosyncratic responses and errors (semantic, syntactic, and other errors). Finally, the study also aimed to shed light on cultural effects on word generation by comparing Brazilian and Portuguese sentence databases., Method: 361 typically developing monolingual Brazilian speakers, with ages ranging from 7 to 18 years, participated in the study. The cloze task was composed by 100 sentence contexts, grounded on the European Portuguese database. Responses were classified as valid (correct) or invalid (semantic, syntactic, and other-type errors). Statistical analyses were based on mixed-effects logistic models., Results: Sixty-three sentences met criteria for high cloze probabilities, 30 for medium cloze, and 7 for low cloze. Age was a significant predictor of idiosyncratic responses, semantic and syntactic errors: older participants were less likely to produce idiosyncratic responses, as well as semantic and syntactic errors. Cloze probability values were concordant in the Brazilian and Portuguese databases for 31 out of 49 (83.7%) high-cloze sentences and for 7 low-cloze sentences., Conclusion: In this study we have provided a database with cloze probability values for a set of 100 sentence-final word contexts for Brazilian Portuguese children and adolescents. Results showed that both age and sentence contextual level predicted sentence final word completion. Older participants were more likely to choose more consistently the same final word, with the contextual level of a given sentence also contributing to the final word selection. Age should be controlled for in future studies probing semantic processing with this set of sentences., Competing Interests: the authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change 1 . ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification 2-4 . Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius 5 . China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO 2 . These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.

The follow up of Representative behavior after elections is imperative for a democratic Representative system, at the very least to punish betrayal with no re-election. Our goal was to show how to follow Representatives' and how to show behavior in real situations and observe trends in political crises including the onset of game changing political instabilities. We used correlation and correlation distance matrices of Brazilian Representative votes during four presidential terms. Re-ordering these matrices with Minimal Spanning Trees displays the dynamical formation of clusters for the sixteen year period, which includes one Presidential impeachment. The reordered matrices, colored by correlation strength and by the parties clearly show the origin of observed clusters and their evolution over time. When large clusters provide government support cluster breaks, political instability arises, which could lead to an impeachment, a trend we observed three years before the Brazilian President was impeached. We believe this method could be applied to foresee other political storms., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective We aimed to identify the frequency of monogenic diabetes, which is poorly studied in multiethnic populations, due to GCK or HNF1A mutations in patients with suggestive clinical characteristics from the Brazilian population, as well as investigate if the MODY probability calculator (MPC) could help patients with their selection. Subjects and methods Inclusion criteria were patients with DM diagnosed before 35 years; body mass index < 30 kg/m2; negative autoantibodies; and family history of DM in two or more generations. We sequenced HNF1A in 27 patients and GCK in seven subjects with asymptomatic mild fasting hyperglycemia. In addition, we calculated MODY probability with MPC. Results We identified 11 mutations in 34 patients (32.3%). We found three novel mutations. In the GCK group, six cases had mutations (85.7%), and their MODY probability on MPC was higher than 50%. In the HNF1A group, five of 27 individuals had mutations (18.5%). The MPC was higher than 75% in 11 subjects (including all five cases with HNF1A mutations). Conclusion Approximately one third of the studied patients have GCK or HNF1A mutations. Inclusion criteria included efficiency in detecting patients with GCK mutations but not for HNF1A mutations (< 20%). MPC was helpful in narrowing the number of candidates for HNF1A screening.

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: To test the reliability and the discriminant and convergent validity of the abbreviated Brazilian Portuguese World Health Organization's Quality of Life Instrument - Spirituality, Religion, and Personal Beliefs module (WHOQOL-SRPB BREF)., Methods: In a sample of 404 individuals, we applied a general questionnaire, the WHOQOL-BREF, the long-form SRPB, the Brief Religious-Spiritual Coping Scale (RCOPE), and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Priority was given to the 9-item SRPB assessment: its unidimensionality was tested through confirmatory factor analysis and Rasch analysis., Results: Confirmatory factor analysis of the 9-item SRPB assessment indicated an adjusted model with acceptable fit to data. In the Rasch analysis, general fit measures showed adequate performance. The 9-item SRPB assessment showed good internal consistency (alpha = 0.85), and could differentiate (discriminant validity) between religious and atheist/agnostic respondents (mean = 74.7±14.1 and 56.8±15.5, respectively; t = 6.37; degrees of freedom [df] = 402; p < 0.01) and between non-depressed and depressed respondents (mean = 76.5±12.9 and 67.1±16.5; t = 5.57; df = 190.5; p < 0.01). Correlations (convergent validity) were significant with the positive-RCOPE subscale (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) and the WHOQOL-BREF domains (Pearson coefficient ranging between 0.24 and 0.49; p < 0.01), but were in the negative direction with the negative-RCOPE subscale (r = -0.10, p < 0.05). Correlation with the long-form SRPB domain (r = 0.934) was almost perfect., Conclusion: The Brazilian Portuguese 9-item SRPB has good psychometric properties and confirmed the findings of the long-form Brazilian Portuguese version and the abbreviated English version.

Objective: To evaluate the effects of using a flipchart (serial album) on maternal self-efficacy in breastfeeding and its effects on exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in children's first two months of life., Method: Clinical trial in Recife, Northeastern Brazil, with 112 women in the third trimester of gestation, randomly distributed in intervention group (IG) and control group (CG). The intervention was the use of the flipchart in IG. Data collection was performed through interviews in the prenatal period, and telephone contact at second, fourth and eighth weeks postpartum. The Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale-Short-Form (BSES-SF) was used to measure self-efficacy scores. In the analysis, was used descriptive, bivariate statistics through tests of comparisons of proportions and means, and relative risk assessment., Results: There was a statistically significant difference in mean values of self-efficacy scores between women in the IG and CG (p<0.001) and in EBF rates (p<0.001). The probability of exclusively breastfeeding in IG was twice as high than in CG (RR 2.2, CI 1.51-3.21)., Conclusion: The use of a flipchart as an educational tool had positive effects on self-efficacy scores for breastfeeding and in maintenance of EBF in the IG. Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials: RBR-5N7K99.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of one month psychotropic drug use in São Paulo, Brazil, and to assess the gap treatment between the presence of mental disorders and psychotropic drug users., Method: A probabilistic sample of non-institutionalized individuals from the general population of São Paulo (n = 2336; turnout: 84.5%) who were 15 years or older were interviewed by a trained research staff, applying the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 2.1 (CIDI WHO) (depression, anxiety-phobia, OCD\PTSD, alcoholism sections), and an inventory investigating psychotropic drug use during the 12-month and one-month periods immediately preceding the interview. Logistic models were fitted to investigate associations between psychotropic drug use as well as socio-demographic and clinical variables., Results: The one month prevalence of psychotropic drug use in São Paulo was 5.89%, the most commonly used drugs were antidepressants (3.15%) and tranquilizers (2.67%). A higher consumption of psychotropic drugs (overall, antidepressants and tranquilizers) was observed among women (OR:2.42), older individuals (OR:1.04), individuals with higher levels of formal education (1.06), and individuals with a family (OR:2.29) or personal history of mental illness (OR:3.27). The main psychotropic drug prescribers were psychiatrists (41%), followed by general practitioners (30%); 60% of psychotropic drugs were obtained through a government-run dispensing program. Most individuals who obtained a positive diagnosis on the CIDI 2.1 during the previous month were not using psychotropic medication (85%). Among individuals with a diagnosis of moderate to severe depression, 67.5% were not on any pharmacological treatment., Conclusion: There is a change in the type of psychotropic more often used in São Paulo, from benzodiazepines to antidepressants, this event is observed in different cultures. The prevalence of use is similar to other developing countries. Most of the patients presenting a psychiatric illness in the month prior to testing were not receiving any sort of psychiatric medication. This may be explained by a failure to identify cases in primary care, which could be improved (and access to treatment could be facilitated) if professionals received more specialized training in managing cases with mental health problems.

Context: Survival prognostication is important during the end of life. The accuracy of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) over time has not been well characterized., Objectives: The aims of the study were to examine changes in prognostication accuracy during the last 14 days of life in a cohort of patients with advanced cancer admitted to two acute palliative care units and to compare the accuracy between the temporal and probabilistic approaches., Methods: Physicians and nurses prognosticated survival daily for cancer patients in two hospitals until death/discharge using two prognostic approaches: temporal and probabilistic. We assessed accuracy for each method daily during the last 14 days of life comparing accuracy at Day -14 (baseline) with accuracy at each time point using a test of proportions., Results: A total of 6718 temporal and 6621 probabilistic estimations were provided by physicians and nurses for 311 patients, respectively. Median (interquartile range) survival was 8 days (4-20 days). Temporal CPS had low accuracy (10%-40%) and did not change over time. In contrast, probabilistic CPS was significantly more accurate (P < .05 at each time point) but decreased close to death., Conclusion: Probabilistic CPS was consistently more accurate than temporal CPS over the last 14 days of life; however, its accuracy decreased as patients approached death. Our findings suggest that better tools to predict impending death are necessary., (Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The probabilistic record linkage (PRL) is based on a likelihood score that measures the degree of similarity of several matching variables. Screening test results for different diseases are available for the blood donor population. In this paper, we describe the accuracy of a PRL process used to track blood donors from the Fundação Pró-Sangue (FPS) in the Mortality Information System (SIM), in order that future studies might determine the blood donor's cause of death. The databases used for linkage were SIM and the database made up of individuals that were living (200 blood donors in 2007) and dead (196 from the Hospital das Clinicas de São Paulo that died in 2001-2005). The method consists of cleaning and linking the databases using three blocking steps comparing the variables "Name/Mother's Name/ Date of Birth" to determine a cut-off score. For a cut-off score of 7.06, the sensitivity and specificity of the method is 94.4% (95%CI: 90.0-97.0) and 100% (95%CI: 98.0-100.0), respectively. This method can be used in studies that aim to track blood donors from the FPS database in SIM.

Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010. Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease (λ = 0.93, CI = 0.47-1.38) during the study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and conservation of this endemic, endangered species.

We tested the hypothesis that tapirs tolerate individuals from adjacent and overlapping home ranges if they are related. We obtained genetic data from fecal samples collected in the Balbina reservoir landscape, central Amazon. Samples were genotyped at 14 microsatellite loci, of which five produced high quality informative genotypes. Based on an analysis of 32 individuals, we inferred a single panmictic population with high levels of heterozygosity. Kinship analysis identified 10 pairs of full siblings or parent-offspring, 10 pairs of half siblings and 25 unrelated pairs. In 10 cases, the related individuals were situated on opposite margins of the reservoir, suggesting that tapirs are capable of crossing the main river, even after damming. The polygamous model was the most likely mating system for Tapirus terrestris. Moran's I index of allele sharing between pairs of individuals geographically close (<3 km) was similar to that observed between individual pairs at larger distances (>3 km). Confirming this result, the related individuals were not geographically closer than unrelated ones (W = 188.5; p = 0.339). Thus, we found no evidence of a preference for being close to relatives and observed a tendency for dispersal. The small importance of relatedness in determining spatial distribution of individuals is unusual in mammals, but not unheard of. Finally, non-invasive sampling allowed efficient access to the genetic data, despite the warm and humid climate of the Amazon, which accelerates DNA degradation.

Objectives: Steroid joint injection is indicated as starting treatment for juvenile idiopathic arthritis, but its effect as single treatment has not been explored. Our aim was to estimate arthritis remission probability after single or repeated injections., Methods: Conduct a retrospective analysis of inactive arthritis status, remission on medication and remission off medication, estimating cumulative probability and mean time to survival, from the first joint injection session to the last follow-up visit or disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs initiation. Remission and time to achieve remission status after single or repeated injections were compared., Results: Seventy-seven patients with 4-year medium follow-up and 254 treated joints, were reviewed. Eighty-three percent of the individuals had oligoarticular subtype and 57% had persistent oligoarticular course. Overall, 26% achieved remission off medication status, 4% remission on medication and 38% initiated disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs. Survival analysis resulted in mean time of achieving inactive disease status, remission on medication and off medication of 8, 11 and 56 months, respectively. The cumulative probability of remission off medication was 2% at 12 months, 8% at 24 months and 18% at 36 months. Frequency of inactive disease, remission on medication and remission off medication status decreased proportionally following repeated joint injections in comparison with the frequency of the same status for those receiving single treatment., Conclusions: The dropout rates due to anti-rheumatic drugs initiation indicated limited long-term benefits of intra-articular steroids for juvenile idiopathic arthritis.