Search

This article focuses on the phenomenon of global rivalry between China and the United States in terms of power transition theory, which is scientifically new and relevant due to the increased attention to the so-called Thucydides trap, in which, as some experts claim, both states have fallen. This paper presents a different vision of the global rivalry for leadership in the shaping of a new world order, which has already taken the form of overt non-violent confrontation and manifests itself in technological and trade wars as well as scientific and cultural rivalries. Nevertheless, despite the non-violent nature of the rivalry, this process is followed by an increase in the military capabilities of states, mainly projected in the basins of the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Indo-Pacific region). The methodological basis of the paper is power transition theory, which has been developed over the past 60 years by A.F. Organsky, J. Kugler, D. Lemke, R. Tammen and other researchers, united in the TransResearch Consortium. The authors argue that the analytical prism of this theory is more relevant to the analysis of current global rivalry than the classical neorealist balance of power approach. Through the prism of the theory the issues of rebalancing the global system of economic governance are analyzed. Also, a comparative analysis of the US-Japanese and US-Chinese trade and technological wars is carried out. Both the military and aggregate capabilities of two countries on a global scale and in the Indo-Pacific region are examined. The conclusion contains findings and comments on the impact of U.S. - China rivalry on the system of international relations.

This paper examines the possible ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic as they relate to changing American strategic posture and geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia. Since the spread of the pandemic, the overall security situation in Northeast Asia appears to be worsening, contrary to public expectations. Disputes over the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic between Beijing and Washington have aggravated the Sino-American relationship, already shifting from the existing “cold peace” between the two into a Cold War. The authors explore the new and rapidly evolving Cold War discourse in the United States and traces its geopolitical implications across Northeast Asia. The first section examines emerging patterns of new Cold War discourse and practice in the United States. The second discusses four major geopolitical flashpoints in the region: the dynamics of military modernization and strategic arms races between China and the United States, Taiwan Strait relations, the South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the paper makes suggestions to mitigate rising geopolitical tensions in Northeast Asia.

This article aims to provide a framework for conceptualizing the China-US rivalry. It argues that while the China-US rivalry is distorted to be an analogy to the Cold War, it must be understood as an intra-core competition between two different capitalisms. Theoretically the paper is inspired by the world system theory’s perspective on “cycles of hegemony” and the Kautsky-Lenin debate on inter-capitalism relationships. The causal nexus of the two theories explains that the China-US rivalry is in a new phase of the cycles of capital accumulation, and China’s changing competitive dynamics led by its state capitalism model have generated disadvantageous effect on the US hegemony. The paper’s conclusion is that China-US competition will shape the trajectory of world order for decades to come.

Carving up the world into Global North and Global South has become an established way of thinking about global difference since the end of the Cold War. This binary, however, erases what this paper calls the Global East–those countries and societies that occupy an interstitial position between North and South. This paper problematises the geopolitics of knowledge that has resulted in the exclusion of the Global East, not just from the Global North and South, but from notions of globality in general. It argues that we need to adopt a strategic essentialism to recover the Global East for scholarship. To that end, it traces the global relations of IKEA’s bevelled drinking glass to demonstrate the urgency of rethinking the Global East at the heart of global connections, rather than separate from them. Thinking of such a Global East as a liminal space complicates the notions of North and South towards more inclusive but also more uncertain theorising. © 2018, © 2018 Martin Müller. Published with license by Taylor & Francis. Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, SNSF: PP00P1_144699 This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation [PP00P1_144699]. This paper is the second in a tetralogy of papers. The other papers are Goodbye Postsocialism! (M?ller 2019), Theorising with the Global East and How global is global urbanism? How we theorised from the South but forgot about the East. In its various forms this paper has profited from a number of engaged audiences in Vel?k? Lomnica in September 2016, Leipzig in November 2016, Boston in April 2017, Ekaterinburg and M?nster (Valais) in August 2017, Kyiv in September 2017, and Z?rich in February 2018. Thank you to Elena Trubina and Carolin Schurr for incisive comments and to the reviewers and editors of Geopolitics who helped shape this paper.

This paper analyses the development of European security since the end of the Cold War and how the European Union’s and Russia’s understandings of European security have diverged. The paper argues that the competing projects of the EU and Russia in the neighbourhood are a reflection of ontological insecurity which have prevented a renewed European security regime from emerging.

Throughout the Cold War, Italy was one of the most steadfast NATO allies in hosting American nuclear weapons on its territory. Such a policy could easily be construed as an example of almost automatic confidence in the US nuclear umbrella, yet only on the surface did extended deterrence appease Italian anxieties about the uncertainties of the American nuclear guarantee. The Italian rationale for accepting a large array of US nuclear weapon s did as a matter of fact involve a complex mix of reasons, ranging from trying to ensure that the Italian government would be consulted in the event of a major crisis, to willingness to enhance the country’s profile inside any Western multilateral fora. The paper will investigate this policy by looking at how the Italian government behaved at the height of the NATO nuclear sharing debate, between 1957 and 1962, arguably one of the historical moments in the Cold War when the concept of extended deterrence was most intensely discussed. Drawing upon hitherto classified archival sources as well as on some less-known public ones, the paper will show how Italian diplomats, military leaders and policymakers understood the dangers and political implications of US nuclear policies. It will, hopefully, demonstrate that Italy’s persistent search for a multilateral solution to the nuclearisation of NATO strategy shows that Italy never saw extended deterrence as a solution per se, but only as a temporary means to an end.

This paper examines the degree of integration in Central Asia by utilizing the international society approach of the English School of International Relations (ES). After addressing the debate surrounding the concept of ‘international society’ and discussing its contents and application the paper suggests that within the contemporary heterogeneous global international society there exist some more homogeneous regional/sub-global international societies with Central Asia constituting one of them. It argues that during the Cold War the global international society was divided into two sub-global international societies with the Soviet Union and its allies forming one of them. With the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia sought to re-establish its regional primacy through the establishment of a set of international organizations ranging from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The paper claims that this range of organizations reflects the existence of a regional international society in Central Asia.

El propósito de este trabajo, es presentar la geopolítica de Ucrania a través de la historia, conocer desde cuándo es un territorio en disputa; cuales son los elementos que lo convierten en un actor importante, así como Rusia y la geoestratégia Europea tras los intereses por un acercamiento a la reanimación de la Guerra Fría y la intervención de actores como Estados Unidos y la OTAN. Como corriente teórica se expone la ciencia de la geopolítica, ya que brinda los elementos adecuados para el estudio geográfico y los intereses estratégicos. Este trabajo consta de tres capítulos que permiten analizar el papel de Ucrania en el territorio Euroasiático: El primer capítulo de este trabajo explica desde una perspectiva histórica, los antecedentes que durante los siglos XIX y XX, e inclusive en la época de los imperios desde el siglo IV, han determinado su privilegiada posición geográfica y la importancia del Mar Negro, en términos de disputa por recursos y posicionamiento militar en la zona; así como el inicio del Nacionalismo y su importancia a través de las guerras en su relación con los países vecinos, en especial con Rusia y Europa, hasta la segunda Guerra Mundial.Desde un ámbito también geográfico e histórico, el segundo capítulo identifica los factores económicos, el paso de recursos mineros, gas y petróleo, que entre el periodo de la Guerra Fría y los albores de la Revolución Naranja en 2004 cambiaron el rumbo de Ucrania; primero como región primordial de la URSS y luego en su independencia tras el colapso soviético, en su traumático trasegar de dependencia política y de seguridad frente a Rusia y la Unión Europa en su continua disputa. En el último capítulo, se realiza un análisis sobre la situación actual de Ucrania, tomando como base la caótica situación que desde hace más de un año presenta, analizando su importancia geoestratégica, así como sus grandes recursos minerales y reservas de gas; sumando su autonomía y la formación de facciones políticas internas en el ámbito económico y social de las tensiones en escalamiento frente al tema de Crimea junto con los efectos de los diferentes sucesos ocurridos y el discurso nacionalista pro y anti ruso de las élites políticas y económicas de este país, además, la manera como se han organizado las clases medias y populares, en torno a los intereses de las élites que se dividen entre seguir a la Unión Europea y los sectores proclives a favorecer la diplomacia e intereses económicos del Kremlin. Se tuvo en cuenta las discusiones internacionales por recursos energéticos que Ucrania provee o permite que atraviesen su territorio hacia Europa y se concluye con un examen de los efectos geopolíticos de Estados Unidos, tras la intervención que de manera directa e indirecta ha realizado e influenciado a la Unión Europea para favorecer sus intereses. The purpose of this paper is to present the geopolitics of Ukraine through history, to know since when is a disputed territory; what are the elements that convert it a major player? As well as Russia and the geostrategic European, beyond interest by the rapprochement to the revival of the Cold War and the intervention of actors like the United States and NATO. As current theoretical, exposed the science of geopolitics as it provides the right elements for geographical study and interests strategic. This work consists of three chapters that analyze the role of Ukraine in the Eurasian territory: The first chapter of this paper explains from a historical perspective, the background that during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and even in the epoch since empires from IV century, have given their privileged geographical position and the importance of the Black Sea, in terms of dispute over resources and military positioning in the area; as well as the initiation of Nationalism and its importance through the wars in its relationship with neighboring countries, in especially with Russia and Europe until World War II. Since a geographical and historical also context , the second chapter identifies the economic factors, the step of mineral resources, gas and oil, that between the period of the Cold War and the dawn of the Orange Revolution in 2004 changed the rhumb of Ukraine; first as region primordial of the USSR and then in their independence after the Soviet collapse, in its racking traumatic of political dependence and of security front Russia and the European Union in their ongoing dispute. In the last chapter, It is performed an analysis of the current situation in Ukraine, taking based on the chaotic situation that for more than a year ago presents, analyzed its geostrategic importance as well as its large mineral resources and gas reserves; adding their autonomy and the formation of internal political factions in the economic and social of the tensions in scaling on front of Crimea together with the effects of different events occurring and nationalist discourse pro- and anti-Russian political and economic elites of this country also the way they have organized the class and, around the interests of the elites who are divided between following the European Union and the sectors likely to favor diplomacy and economic interests of the Kremlin classes. Internationals discussions on energy resources Ukraine provides or allows to pass through its territory to Europe and concludes with an examination of the geopolitical effects after the intervention directly and indirectly has made and influenced taken into account European Union to further their interests. Pregrado

[First paragraph] Cuba: Confronting the U.S. Embargo. PETER SCHWAB. New York: St. Martin's, 1999. xiii + 226 pp. (Cloth US$ 29.95) Presidential Decision Making Adrift: The Carter Administration and the Mariel Boatlift. DAVID W. ENGSTROM. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 1997. x + 239 pp. (Paper US$25.95) Fleeing Castro: Operation Pedro Pan and the Cuban Children's Program. VICTOR ANDRES TRIAY. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1998. xiv + 126 pp. (Cloth US$ 49.95, Paper US$ 14.95) Some forty years after it was first imposed in 1960 in the midst of the cold war, the U.S. embargo against Cuba remains the defining feature of U.S.-Cuban relations. Like the Berlin Wall, the embargo is both a symbolic and a physical barrier keeping apart two neighbors destined to move closer. Unlike the Berlin Wall which feil at the end of the cold war, the U.S. embargo against Cuba still stands.

Diplomacy has played a key role in conflicts since ancient times. Over time, the role of diplomatic agents has changed, to take on, gradually, greater importance especially in wartime. This article focuses on the activities of the Italian foreign service in World War II and on the role of diplomats during the civil war that followed the fall of Fascism and the subsequent armistice with the Allies. In this dramatic context, some diplomats confirmed their loyalty to the king, while others joined the new-born Italian Social Republic, a puppet state ruled by Mussolini under the protection of Nazi Germany. Somewhere, two Italian diplomatic representations coexisted shortly. A page in the history of diplomacy, unknown to wide audience, that this contribution aims to bring to light. The paper strives to draw conclusions on the implications and consequences of this 'diplomatic civil war' on post-war Italian foreign policy. info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion

This controversial assessment from the CIA’s Office of Soviet Analysis separates SOVA from the consensus of the rest of the U.S. intelligence community regarding Gorbachev and his chances for success, or even survival. The document carries a scope note calling it a “speculative paper” because it goes against the general view that would soon be expressed in a Fall 1989 National Intelligence Estimate. That NIE would predict that Gorbachev would survive the coming economic crisis of 1990-91 with...

The engagement of Swedish industry in the Liberian American–Swedish Minerals Company (LAMCO), which mined iron in Liberia between 1963 and 1989, was the largest Swedish commercial investment in Africa during the Cold War. In this paper I investigate how political and administrative actors of the Swedish government conceptualized the link between private and public interests in the context of LAMCO’s operations, and how this shaped Swedish government policy towards the company and Liberia. I identify two phases: a phase of almost unanimous political support for LAMCO and close Swedish–Liberian relations from ca. 1955 to 1965, and a more fragmented phase following 1965, during which LAMCO was increasingly understood as a political liability. My findings show how business interests could figure into Swedish foreign policy during the Cold War, highlighting the coherence with which Swedish industry and government acted in relation to the commercial interests in Liberia before ca. 1965, but also the lack of coherence – between government and industry as well as within the state apparatus – that followed the turn to a more activist policy after the mid-1960s. QC 20180620

For many years, the Baltic Sea region stood out for its remarkable stability. The dramatic changes following the end of the Cold War did not have a profound effect on the territory. However, Russia's cooperation with other states in the Baltic Sea region began to lose momentum. This paper discusses the negative effects of the Ukrainian and Syrian crises and the increasing tension between Russia and other countries in the Baltic Sea region. In the short term, these trends are unlikely to re¬verse. Of the two possible scenarios — suspending relations until a solution to the political and military problems is found or trying to make use of every opportunity in economy, culture, science, education, etc., — the latter is preferable. A breakdown in regional cooperation will weaken Russia’s position. However, gaining positive momentum may prove instrumental in overcoming the confrontation between Russia and the West in the future.

China's trade relations with the United States over the past four decades is a topic that has not been fully dealt with in scholarly works. This paper charts the course of US-China economic relations since 1971, explains the principal forces stimulating growth and encouraging change and, finally, discusses how these two economic giants fit into an interlocking Asian and world economy. In reaction to the post-2008 financial downturn, advocates for a new world economic order have suggested a rebalancing of global demand, which will arguably become a major, politically charged issue in the US and in China in the years to come. Growing economic interdependence has quickly presented new challenges and opportunities, with issues such as human rights, Most-Favoured-Nation status, the Taiwan and Tibet question, and the huge American trade deficit threatening to cloud the relationship at times. With China's emergence as a major power and America's hegemonic ambitions tested in successive wars, the contradiction between a booming commercial relationship and conflict associated with geopolitical and ideological differences will continue to constitute a serious challenge. The long-term goal for each side will be to forge economic ties strong enough to create a stable political relationship, rather than to be held hostage by geopolitical constraints.

This paper deals with the problem of the emigration of the Romanian Jews in Israel as revealed by a few historical writings and in published documents. The Romanian Jews' emigration in Israel was a continuous process in spite of the communist regime established in Romania after the war and it was one of the main priorities of Romanian-Israeli diplomatic relations. The research focused on the years 1948-1969. The relationship between Romania and Israel evolved in time, manifesting interest in economic life, cultural life, human rights field, migration, religion.

By the late-1950s, Soviet oil exports to Western Europe caused widespread concern in a number of Western countries as these feared that Moscow could use oil to weaken their economic interests. At the same time though, other Western countries had no hesitation in developing trade relations with the Soviets, seeing this as a good commercial opportunity. The paramount example of such political nonchalance was Italy’s oil company, ENI. In 1960, ENI signed a barter contract with the Soviets, causing a scandal in the Western oil world: the Italian company’s act was seen as a serious breach of faith by its international allies. As a consequence, ENI’s contract became a serious bone of contention in the country’s bilateral and international relations. This paper analyzes the origins and development of the ENI-Soviet deal, and focuses on the reactions of Italy’s Western allies and the debate it generated at the European Economic Community., В конце 1950-х гг. поставки нефти из СССР в Западную Европу вызвали озабоченность в некоторых европейских странах, которые опасались, что Москва может использовать нефть в целях ослабления их экономических интересов. Однако наряду с этим, другие европейские страны продолжали поддерживать торговые отношения с Советским Союзом, считая их перспективными. Ярким примером такой политической беспечности стала итальянская нефтяная компания ENI (Национальное нефтегазовое учреждение). В 1960 г. она подписала с СССР соглашение о товарообмене, чем вызвала скандал на европейском нефтяном рынке: международные союзники восприняли действия итальянской компании как измену. В результате контракт ENI стал камнем преткновения в двусторонних и многосторонних отношениях Италии с другими странами. В статье рассматриваются предпосылки и этапы развития сотрудничества ENI и СССР, при этом особое внимание уделяется изучению реакции западных союзников Италии и споров, которые это событие вызвало в Европейском экономическом сообществе.

SummaryThis paper examines the working class in the United States and Britain in order to find a new perspective on the origins and break-up of the World Federation of Trade Unions. While most previous works have focused on the roles of institutions and leaders, this research uncovers the important role played by the thoughts, actions, and inactions of average workers in international affairs. American and British workers, as key constituents of two of the most important organizations making up the WFTU, were not passive observers of world events. Rather, they were critical not only of how the world union movement functioned, but also of the process which came to be termed the Cold War.