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The electric power sector is the primary contributor to carbon emissions in China. Considering the context of dual carbon goals, this paper examines carbon emissions within China's electricity sector. The research utilizes the LMDI approach for methodological rigor. The results show that the cumulative contribution of economies scale, power consumption factors and energy structure are 114.91%, 85.17% and 0.94%, which contribute to the increase of carbon emissions, the cumulative contribution of power generation efficiency and ratio of power dissipation to generation factor are -19.15% and -0.01%, which promotes the carbon reduction. The decomposition analysis highlights the significant influence of economic scale on carbon emissions in the electricity industry, among the seven factors investigated. Meanwhile, STIRPAT model, Logistic model and GM(1,1) model are used to predict carbon emissions, the average relative error between actual carbon emissions and the predicted values are 0.23%, 8.72% and 7.05%, which indicates that STIRPAT model is more suitable for medium- to long-term predictions. Based on these findings, the paper proposes practical suggestions to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the dual carbon goals of the power industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severe global warming issue currently threatens humans' existence and development. Countries and international organizations have effectively implemented policies to reduce carbon emissions and investigate low-carbon growth strategies. Reducing carbon emissions is a hot topic that academics and government policy-making departments are concerned about.Through necessary condition analysis (NCA) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA), this paper investigates local governments' configuration linkage effect and path choice to improve carbon emission performance from six dimensions: energy consumption, industrial structure, technological innovation, government support, economic development, and demographic factors. The research findings include the following: (1) Individual condition does not represent necessary conditions for the government's carbon performance. Among the two sets of second-order equivalence configurations(S and Q) (five high-level carbon performance configurations), those dominated by economic development or low energy consumption can produce high-level carbon performance. Therefore, the six antecedent conditions dimensions work together to explain how the government can create high levels of carbon performance. (2)According to the regional comparison, China's eastern, central, and western regions exhibit similarities and differences in the driving forces behind high carbon emission performance. All three regions can demonstrate carbon emission performance when all the factors are combined. However, when constrained by the conditions of each region's resource endowment, the eastern region emphasizes the advantage of economic and technological innovation, the central region favors government support and demographic factors, and the western region prefers upgrading industrial structure based on a specific level of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to evaluate the effect of market-oriented environmental management measures on regional carbon emission intensity in the pilot areas better, this paper adopts a quasinatural experiment of energy-use rights trading (EURT) policy by using the difference-in-difference method from the perspective of cities in China from 2006 to 2019. The results show that the policy of EURT can significantly reduce regional carbon emission intensity, which varies in different regions and different scales of cities. The main goal of implementing the policy is to reduce regional carbon emission intensity by improving the energy consumption structure and promoting the improvement of industrial structure and green innovation. In addition, the spatial impact of the EURT pilot project is demonstrated by its ability to not only reduce local carbon emission intensity but also decrease carbon intensity in and around the designated areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The escalating issue of global climate change necessitates urgent measures to reduce carbon emissions globally. Within this context, the construction industry emerges as a critical sector to address given its high energy consumption, substantial CO2 emissions, and low utilization rate. Therefore, it is pivotal to foster energy conservation and reduce emissions in this sector. To this end, this paper delineates two primary objectives: (1) identifying optimal research methodologies and index parameters for evaluating carbon emission efficiency in the construction industry, and (2) assessing the variance in carbon emission efficiency at disparate stages and regions. Leveraging the Malmquist index, we scrutinize the carbon emission data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning from 2010 to 2019. Our findings indicate a geographical dichotomy in China's construction industry's carbon emission efficiency—lower in the west and higher in the east. Additionally, this study delves into the distinguishing features of emission efficiency alterations across regions, the main influencing factors, and avenues for enhancement. Subsequently, it proposes policy recommendations tailored to the unique attributes of various regions and the overarching framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrial sector is China's major element of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and carbon emissions reduction in industrial parks has become an important foothold in carbon reduction work. Predicting the future evolution trend of carbon emissions in industrial parks under different policy orientations is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the current status of electricity consumption and carbon emissions in industrial parks, this paper takes a light industrial park as the research object, analyzes the source of carbon emissions in this park, combines the characteristics of resource endowment and industrial structure, and considers the factors influencing society, load curve, energy supply and carbon sink, thus constructing a system dynamics model of carbon emission evolution for this park. Different influencing factors are selected to set multiple target scenarios, and the GDP, carbon emissions, carbon emissions reduction and near‐zero carbon evaluation coefficient of light industrial parks are used as characterization indicators for simulation analysis. The analysis results revealed that the comprehensive scenario set by increasing the maximum installed capacity of renewable energy units and raising the proportions of environmental and science and technology inputs while adjusting the industrial growth rate of the park performed best. In this scenario, the economic development of the park and the process of carbon emissions reduction are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the influence of the dual policies of sustainable economic development and the national dual-carbon target, the establishment of an environmental protection department for the treatment of heavily polluting industries is imminent, and the country has launched pollution control policies and regulations to restrict the emission rights of heavily polluting industries. Therefore, this paper focuses on whether the restriction of emission rights in key industries has reduced carbon emissions. To achieve this, this paper uses panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019 and adopts a two-way fixed-effects DID model to systematically analyze the impact of the key pollution industry governance policies launched by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on CO2 emissions in 2017. And further analyze the role of variables such as green technology innovation patents and energy efficiency using this model, while parallel trend tests and placebo tests, and related policies are used to ensure the robustness of the regression results. This paper reveals that: (1) The heavy pollution industry governance policy implemented in 2017 can effectively reduce CO2 emissions in the cities of the treated group, and the effect is more significant in the year of policy implementation; (2) Green utility patents and energy-use efficiency are the effective mediating mechanisms to reduce CO2 emissions; (3) Over time, the effect of heavy pollution industry governance policy on CO2 emissions gradually decreases; (4) The reliability of the baseline regression results of this paper is proved by the use of parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and tests excluding the influence factors such as relevant policies in the same period. Therefore, the key polluting industries treatment policy launched by China's Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2017 under the recent dual-carbon policy development goals formulated by China, can effectively reduce carbon emissions; however, in the future economic development process, the government should give more consideration to the continuity of the policy impact and its coherence on economic development when implementing the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of reaching the peak of carbon in the construction industry is urgent. However, the research on the feasibility of realizing this goal and the implementation of relevant policies in China is relatively superficial. In view of the historical data of energy consumption and building CO2 emission from 1995 to 2019, this paper establishes a BP neural network model for predicting building CO2 emissions. Moreover, the influencing factors, such as population, GDP, and total construction output, are introduced as the parameters in the model. Through the scenario analysis method explores the practical path to accomplish the peak of building CO2 emissions. When using traditional prediction methods to predict building carbon emissions, the long prediction cycle will increase the possibility of significant errors. Therefore, this paper constructs the calculation model of building carbon emission and forecasts the future carbon emission value through the BP neural network to avoid the error caused by the nonlinear relationship between influencing factors and predicted value. It will effectively predict the feasibility of the carbon peak and the carbon-neutral target set by government, and provide a useful predictive tool for adjusting the new energy structure and formulating related emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of carbon emissions in the power industry will play a vital role in global decarbonization. The power industry has three main strategies to achieve this reduction in emissions: to implement lean marketing strategies that effectively target users of power and encourage them to adopt decarbonizing technologies and services; to optimize the efficiency of these users of power; and to improve the efficiency of renewable energy sources. This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation system of indexed data from power industry customers for the development of lean marketing strategies. This system evaluates indexes derived from customer data on renewable energy sources, carbon emissions, energy efficiency, and customer credit. It adopts the DEMATEL–CRITIC combination weight assignment and VIKOR method for system evaluation and conducts simulation experiments on customer data in a region of Northeastern China to give an example of how this method could be applied in practice to lean marketing. The results show that the evaluation system proposed in this paper can govern the lean marketing decision-making of power sales enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In coastal cities, a large amount of cold energy is released into the nearby seawater during the process of regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the receiving terminal, and meanwhile, a large amount of exported and/or imported foods need to be frozen by bulk cold energy near the sea. In this paper, a new multistage cold energy recovery/utilization system is investigated to link the LNG cold energy directly to supply the coastal cold store. This design uses a realistic case in Ningbo LNG receiving station in China, and for the very first time considers how to utilize the LNG cold energy in an efficient manner regarding the technical, economic, and environmental benefits. A three‐stage LNG cold energy utilization system is designed and evaluated by considering different temperatures, pressures, and heat exchange parameters. Compared to conventional electric‐driven cold stores, the proposed multistage cold energy recovery/utilization system has a much cheaper capital cost during the initial investment stage, and also avoids the utility power consumption during the daily operation period. In the case study, from Ningbo LNG receiving station to a 10 MW class cold store, the proposed multienergy system can save the energy of 20.05 kilotons of standard coal, and the carbon emission reduction is up to 1.49 × 108 kg per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High carbon emissions and population aging are two obstacles to China's development as an emerging economy. It is urgent to scientifically examine the impacts of population aging on carbon emissions to discover new pathways for urban carbon emission reduction. However, existing studies face challenges in terms of focusing on and methodology for accurately capturing the role of industrial production and energy consumption in the environmental effects of population aging. This paper constructs a chain mediation analytical framework and systematically examines the intrinsic linkages between population aging and carbon emissions in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using a two-way fixed effects model. This paper has three main findings. (1) The positive correlation between urban population aging and carbon emissions development is generally low, with coupling coordination degree values of 0.4233, 0.4458, 0.4220, 0.4715, and 0.4665 for each yearly cross-section. (2) For every 1% increase in the population aging rate, carbon emissions decrease by 0.3478% on average. The carbon reduction effect of population aging is significantly greater in low-emissions cities and high-income cities than in other cities. (3) The industrial upgrading (IU) path, energy conservation (EC) path and chain mediation (CM) path account for 72.43%, 7.23% and 20.34%, respectively, of the indirect effects. If the causal link between IU and EC is not considered, the EC effect will be overestimated by 281.16%. The results of the study suggest that properly coping with population aging and reducing carbon emissions are not completely opposed to each other, a conclusion that passes both endogeneity exclusion and robustness check. This paper advocates replacing the one-size-fits-all approach in carbon emissions management and investing more in policy preferences to support carbon emission reduction in both high-emissions and low-income cities. [Display omitted] •The synergistic trends of carbon emissions and population aging are not apparent. •Population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions at the city scale. •Linkage effect of industrial upgrading and energy conservation on carbon emission reduction. •Energy conservation effect of population aging amplified by industrial upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, people all around the globe have seen its effects, including city closures, travel restrictions, and stringent security measures. However, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic extend beyond people's everyday lives. It impacts the air, water, soil, and carbon emissions as well. This article examines the effect of energy and the COVID-19 pandemic on China's carbon dioxide emissions in light of the aforementioned context, using the daily data from 20 January 2020 and ending on 20 April 2022. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis, the findings indicate that COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases and renewable energy advance environmental sustainability due to their negative effects on carbon dioxide emissions, whereas fossil fuel energy hinders environmental sustainability due to its positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, these results are also supported by the results of the frequency domain causality test and the Markow switching regression. In light of these results, there are several policy implications, such as vaccination, renewable energy utilization, and non-renewable energy alternative policies, which have been proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many developing countries are facing the difficulty of choosing between economic growth and energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER). China has strengthened the implementation of ECER by setting environmental accountability as the development goal of local governments, hoping to have better governance effects. To evaluate the actual intervention effect of this approach, this paper constructs panel data covering 46 countries from 1995 to 2014 and uses the difference-in-differences (DID) method and the composite control method to quantitatively analyse the policy effect. The results show that China can effectively curb energy consumption and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP by adding ECER targets to the government's five-year plan, which has significant effects on ECER. Furthermore, we use an intermediary mechanism to test and identify low-carbon alternatives and an ECER promotion mechanism for technological advancement. The conclusion shows that economic development is compatible with low carbon and energy consumption. Combined with China's long-term goals for ECER, it can be considered that on the road to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future, the economy and tertiary industry should be rationally developed, the degree of urbanization should receive more attention, and the proportion of thermal power generation should be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve China's energy conservation and emission reduction goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, it is of great significance. An important means of building energy conservation and emission reduction is the fine management of building energy consumption, which is based on the accurate prediction of building energy consumption, so as to support the optimal management of building operation and achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper puts forward the evaluation indexes of the results of the building energy consumption prediction model, uses MAPE and RMSE indexes to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction results of the model, and uses the prediction time and input parameter dimensions to evaluate the time cost of the prediction model. Then, using the three building energy consumption prediction models based on machine learning algorithm established above, the prediction of energy consumption of four types of public buildings in different seasons is completed, and the prediction results are evaluated and analyzed. According to the prediction results and the requirements of related work on the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction model, the adaptation relationship between different types of buildings and different machine learning algorithm prediction models is summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most significant carbon emission departments in China, the power industry will gradually become the core hub of reducing carbon emissions in the process of undertaking carbon emissions transferred from other industries. Therefore, it is of vital importance to predict the power consumption in China's end energy consumption to achieve the carbon peak goal on time. This paper firstly uses the gray relational analysis model to study the relationship between power consumption indicators of the three major industries and some social and economic indicators and obtains the influencing factors with the greatest correlation with the power consumption of the three industries. Then, based on the analysis of socio-economic factors, considering different growth rates, the GMCN(1,N) model of electricity consumption in China's three major industries is established. Forecast data under different scenarios have important practical significance for formulating active and effective energy policies. The data indicate that the secondary and tertiary industries consume the greatest amount of electricity. It is estimated that the power consumption of China's three major industries will reach 10.15 trillion kWh (kilowatt hours) by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a model to accurately estimate the urban CO2 emissions in 2000, 2005, and 2013 in China, using the combined data of DMSP/OLS nighttime light data and the provincial energy statistical yearbook data. We calculate and analyze the growth of urban built-up areas and carbon emissions in different time periods both all over the country and the four economic zones in China. It was shown a good fitting relationship between urban growth and carbon emissions, with the R2 at 0.6188 in 2000, 0.7132 in 2005, and 0.7195 in 2013. The growth rate of developed land area was 13.4% from 2000 to 2005 and 15.9% from 2005 to 2013. During the same period, CO2 emissions had been increasing as well, at an average annual growth rate of 12.2% from 2000 to 2005 and 6.5% from 2005 to 2013. From a spatial point of view, carbon emissions are far greater in the eastern region of China than in western China. The carbon emissions are the highest in major metropolitan cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Per capita carbon emissions are also higher in eastern China, which is consistent with the people's higher living standards. In some cities with large energy and heavy industry concentrations, especially in the northeastern and western regions, the growth rate of carbon emissions has risen faster than in other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy saving is one of the main technique routes for net zero carbon emissions. Air compressor systems take up a large part of energy consumption in the industrial field. A pre-cooling air compressor system was proposed for energy saving by cooling the air before it flows in a compressor. The energy efficiency of the proposed system was analyzed. As additional energy consumption is required for air cooling, the feasibility of the pre-cooling method for energy saving was analyzed. As the efficiency of the pre-cooling air compressor system is mainly influenced by the environment temperature and humidity, applicability of the system in different regions and at different seasons was discussed. A pilot project was performed to verify the technical feasibility and economics of the proposed system. When the precooling temperature of the pilot system was set to 2 °C, the annual pneumatic-electrical ratio of the system can be increased by approximately 2% in several regions of China. This paper shows the pre-cooling air compressor system is feasible for energy saving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low-carbon transformation of the power industry is of great significance to realize the carbon peak in advance. However, almost a third of China's CO2 emissions came from the power sector in 2019. This paper aimed to identify the key drivers of CO2 emissions in China's power industry with the consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The spatial Durbin model and relative importance analysis were combined based on Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2019. This combination demonstrated that GDP, the power supply structure and energy intensity are the key drivers of CO2 emissions in China's power industry. The self-supply ratio of electricity and the spatial spillover effect have a slight effect on increasing CO2 emissions. The energy demand structure and CO2 emission intensity of thermal power have a positive effect, although it is the lowest. Second, the positive impact of GDP on CO2 emissions is decreasing, but that of the power supply structure and energy intensity is increasing. Third, the energy demand of the industrial and residential sectors has a greater impact on CO2 emissions than that of construction and transportation. For achieving the CO2 emission peak in advance, governments should give priority to developing renewable power and regional electricity trade rather than upgrading thermal power generation. They should also focus on promoting energy-saving technology, especially tapping the energy-saving potential of the industry and resident sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is China's substantial energy consumption base. The issue of carbon emission efficiency directly affects the ecological protection and high-quality development of the YRB. It is the key to achieving carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 ("30.60") double carbon emission reduction targets. Therefore, taking YRB as the research object, this paper first calculates the carbon emission and the decoupling state in the YRB. Secondly, the super-efficiency slacks-based measurement (SE-SBM) model is combined with the Malmquist index to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of YRB's carbon emission efficiency from static and dynamic perspectives. Thirdly, the dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emission efficiency are analyzed with the help of the Kernel density function. Finally, the Tobit model analyzes the influencing factors of YRB's and China's carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: (1) Among the nine provinces of YRB, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth in most provinces changes from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, and the decoupling elasticity index shows a fluctuating downward trend. (2) There are significant differences in carbon emission efficiency among provinces, but on the whole, it shows a stable growth trend. The high-value area of carbon emission efficiency is increasing, and the phenomenon of two-level differentiation is improving. The decline of the technological progress index causes the Malmquist index in Qinghai and Ningxia. On the contrary, the rise of the Malmquist index in the other seven provinces is caused by improving the technical efficiency index. (3) Industrial structure, economic development, and industrialization are the main positive factors affecting YRB's carbon emission efficiency. Urbanization level, green development level, and energy consumption level are the leading negative indicators hindering YRB's improvement of carbon emission efficiency. Therefore, targeted emission reduction suggestions should be formulated according to YRB's resource endowment and development stage characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive carbon emissions not only intensify the global climate change, but also seriously restrict the sustainable development of social economy. However, improving industrial carbon emissions efficiency is the most directly effective way to reduce emissions. Therefore, accurate measurement and analysis of carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China's industrial system is the basis for China to improve carbon emissions efficiency. Based on this, we adopted energy consumption method and input-output method to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China from 2002 to 2015. The results show that (1) If carbon emissions from cement production are ignored and only energy-related carbon emissions are considered, the calculation results of carbon emissions efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated about 30%. (2) Compared with 2002, China's industrial carbon emissions efficiency increased by about twice in 2015. Specifically, the optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in agriculture, construction, light industry and service industry is very obvious, which has increased by 5.65, 5.00, 4.69 and 4.68 times respectively; The optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in power sector, heavy industry, transportation and chemical industry was obvious, which increased by 2.55, 2.01, 1.86 and 1.47 times respectively; The carbon emissions efficiency of the fossil energy sector has decreased by 0.36 times. (3) The carbon emissions efficiency of various industries has significant differences. Among them, agriculture, service industry, light industry and construction industry are generally industries with higher carbon emissions efficiency, while power sector, fossil energy sector, transportation industry, chemical industry and heavy industry are generally industries with lower carbon emissions efficiency, especially power and fossil energy sectors. Based on these, this paper provides policy implications and scientific evidence for accurately improving carbon emissions efficiency from the perspective of carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's food industry is a large energy consumer and carbon emitter due to its huge scale, so it cannot be ignored if China wants to achieve the goals of energy conservation, emission reduction, and clean production. It is necessary to conduct an in‐depth analysis of the energy environment efficiency of the industry. This paper measures the total‐factor energy environment efficiency (TFEEE) of China's food industry and calculates its energy‐saving and CO2 emission‐reduction potential. A method that combines the slacks‐based measure (SBM) model with meta‐frontier technology is adopted, which considers the heterogeneity of production between regions while dealing with the undesirable output (CO2 emissions). This method is used to calculate the energy environment efficiency of each province based on the group frontier (GTFEEE) and the meta‐frontier (MTFEEE). Through the difference between these two efficiencies, the energy‐saving potential is further decomposed into energy saving from management efficiency improvement and energy saving from technology catch‐up. The results show that, overall, the energy environment efficiency of China's food industry is low, and there are obvious technology gaps between regions. In 2013, the energy‐saving potential of China's food industry reached 49.28 million tce, accounting for 60.7% of the industry's energy consumption that year. Among them, 76% came from the improvement of management efficiency. And the CO2 emission‐reduction potential was 154.6 million tons. Finally, targeted energy saving and emission reduction recommendations were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy (RE) plays a crucial role in global energy transformation, and a thorough study of the potential impact of RE on regional carbon emissions is of great significance. This is particularly relevant to China, which needs to clarify its path to carbon reduction. Using the sample data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021, this paper uses the Granger causality test to verify the causal relationship between carbon emission intensity (CEI) and other factors. It builds a mediation effect model on this basis to explore the direct impact effect and indirect transmission path of renewable energy utilization (REU) on CEI. The results show that REU has a one-way causal relationship with CEI. REU can directly and indirectly reduce CEI by improving social wealth and changing the direction of energy investment. In addition, REU indirectly increases CEI through the transmission paths of investment in the energy industry - social affluence and industrial level-social affluence. The CEI is indirectly reduced through the conduction paths of (social affluence-Urbanization rate), (Investment in the energy industry-Urbanization rate), (Industrial level-Urbanization rate), and (Industrial level-Investment in the energy industry). These conclusions will assist policymakers in exploring targeted pathways for low-carbon power development, providing a reference for strategic and sustainable carbon reduction policies. [Display omitted] • Enrich the view of renewable energy's indirect impact on carbon emissions. • Renewable energy's carbon emission reductions go beyond replacing fossil fuels. • Constructed a mediating effect model between renewable energy and carbon emissions. • Renewable energy can promote or inhibit carbon emissions through various pathways. • Research helps develop more effective renewable energy sustainability strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Carbon emissions from energy consumption of 282 prefecture-level cities in China were calculated. • A new method for calculating carbon emission factors for electricity is proposed. • Extending the Atkinson Index to the application of Carbon Fairness. • Measured the inequality and fairness indicators of carbon emissions from energy consumption at the prefecture-level city level in China. This paper focuses on the conceptualization and quantification of carbon emission inequality and fairness from energy consumption. In order to more accurately measure the carbon emissions generated by electricity consumption in each city, we firstly propose a new method for calculating the carbon emission factor for electricity, and calculates the carbon emissions from energy consumption in 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019. Through the application of the Theil-Kaya decomposition mechanism and the improved Atkinson index, we conducted an in-depth study of the carbon emission inequality and fairness indicators from energy consumption. The results show that (1) Although China's overall inequality has declined, it remains significant in the western region, with its inequality indicator fluctuating from 0.548 in 2003 to 0.683 in 2019.(2) The decomposition of the drivers of inequality indicators shows that the contribution of GDP per capita to inequality is increasingly being replaced by energy intensity and the energy carbon emission factor, with energy intensity emerging as the main driver, contributing more than 40% to inequality in 2019, both overall and in the three regions.(3) The results for the fairness indicator, on the other hand, show a certain degree of divergence. Further Dynamic Time Warping fitting analysis shows that regardless of how the public's sensitivity to carbon emissions varies, the change trends of the fairness and inequality indicators for carbon emissions in the eastern region show a high degree of convergence, even in the two most extreme cases. The fit is poorest in the western region, but improves significantly if public's sensitivity to carbon emissions increases. (4)To sum up, some policies that are consistent with the context of the times, such as the East-West regional counterparts and the construction of a new type of power system, are worthy of priority consideration by the Government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the issues related to carbon emissions and environment have attracted extensive attentions. Considering four scenarios (the energy conversion, energy capital savings and loans, energy exports and cement production carbon emissions), this paper adopts the energy consumption method and input-output method to analyze China's carbon emissions structure on the supply-side and demand-side of energy, and finally provides policy recommendations for China's structural emission reduction. The results show that, if the four influencing factors were not considered, the measurement of carbon emissions from the final demand was 44.91% higher than the baseline scenario, 12.36% lower than the baseline scenario from intermediate demand, and 10.23% lower than the baseline scenario from the total. For China's carbon emissions structure on the supply-side of energy, the carbon emissions from high-carbon energy, represented by raw coal, accounted for 66.805% of the total energy-related carbon emissions, while the carbon emissions from low-carbon energy, represented by natural gas, only accounted for 2.485%. For China's carbon emissions structure on the demand-side of energy, the carbon emissions from intermediate demand (enterprise production) accounted for more than 95% of total energy-related carbon emissions, while the carbon emissions from final demand (residents and government use) accounted for less than 5%. For each specific industry in intermediate demand for energy, the heavy industry, electric power, fossil energy, and chemical industry have high carbon emissions and low carbon emissions efficiency. However, the agriculture, construction, light industry, and service are the opposite. Finally, we provide policy recommendations for improving the accuracy of carbon emissions measurement and carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the time-varying impacts of Chinaʼs economic growth, energy efficiency, and industrial development on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 1970 to 2019. First, we examined and found that there are two significant structural changes in the CO2 sequence over the years, and there was a significant nonlinear relationship among the four. The first nonlinear structural model constructed is the TVP regression model. According to the Bayesian model comparison criterion, TVP-SV-VAR was selected as the second constructed model from four types of VAR models containing nonlinear structures. The results show that the conduction intensity value of energy use efficiency to CO2 emissions has increased year by year, from 0.45 in 1971 to 0.97 in 2019. The short-term transmission mechanism of energy use efficiency to carbon emissions is the most significant. The conduction intensity of Chinaʼs economic growth on CO2 emissions increases year by year. Chinaʼs economic growth plays a major role in long-term CO2 emission reduction. The impact of industrial development on CO2 emissions reached a peak of 0.34 in 1977, and the intensity of the impact has basically stabilized at 0.26. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transnational power cooperation contributes to promoting the large-scale use of renewable energies in Asia, but how to develop the structure of power transmission network deserves careful investigation. This paper thoroughly investigates the structure of power investment and transmission network in China and neighbouring countries, aiming to promote the large-scale use of renewable energies around Asia. Various power-generation and power-transmission technologies are considered in detail, and transnational power interconnection risk cost and carbon emission cost are embedded into a bottom-up optimization model. The future power-generation structures and networks installed under various policy scenarios are analysed in detail, and the corresponding economic, carbon emission reduction and renewable energy consumption benefits are evaluated. The results show that power transmission between China's internal regions and neighbouring countries can save $56.7 billion for the entire power system through the large-scale grid integration of renewable energy. The installed capacities of wind power, solar power, and hydropower renewable energy power generation could be increased by 141 GW, 163 GW, and 58 GW, respectively. The construction of transnational transmission lines from Central Asia to Northwest China, Mongolia to North China, the Russian Far East to Northeast China, and Northeast China to South Korea could effectively promote the utilization of renewable energy in the Russian Far East, Mongolia and Central Asia and further reduce carbon emissions in China, Japan and South Korea. • It examines how to construct a power investment and transmission network in Asia. • Various technologies, risks and costs are considered based on bottom-up model. • Huge benefits exist for power transmission between China and neighbouring countries. • Various power-generation structures and networks installed are analysed in detail. • Suggestions about power investment and transmission are given for Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing contribution of refrigeration systems to global warming has led to widespread demand for low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants as alternatives. This paper proposed a comprehensive environmental assessment method for evaluating the carbon footprint of units charged with low-GWP refrigeration. Experimental and numerical studies were used to investigate the carbon footprint impact of using alternative refrigerants at different ambient temperatures in China. Initially, the model was validated through experimental case studies on the use stage of cold storage units. Subsequently, a comparison was made between the cooling capacity (CC) and energy efficiency ratio (EER) of cold storage units charged with different refrigerants. Additionally, the impact of alternative refrigerants in the use stage was analyzed by numerical calculations, and the adaptability of the cold storage unit to the ambient temperature and the national energy structure was also studied. The results indicate that among the four stages of the cold storage unit, the use stage is the hotspot of carbon footprint due to the large amount of energy consumption and the existence of refrigerant leakage and other behaviors. Utilizing low-GWP alternative refrigerants could significantly reduce the carbon footprint of the cold storage units' use stage by 10.56%–16.39%, thereby lowering the whole stage carbon footprint. Furthermore, the ambient temperature and national energy structure could also effectively reduce the carbon footprint of cold storage units' whole stage by 1%–27.17%. Furthermore, after adopting low GWP refrigerants, the life-cycle cost (LCC) of the units have also decreased by 6.1%–12%. Taking into account both environmental impact and economic considerations, it is recommended to directly replace R404A with R448A in the units in regions where the average ambient temperature is above 15 °C. • A carbon footprint evaluation model for the units was established. • Influencing factors of carbon footprint are studied numerically and experimentally. • By GHG assessments, the optimal refrigerant and external conditions were determined. • Alternative refrigerants reduce carbon emissions for cold storage units by 8.8%–24.92%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting energy needs and ensuring ecological sustainability are important tasks for policymakers. In particular, changing the energy mix used in daily electricity generation can have a major effect on ecological conditions, and this is a previously neglected research topic. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the influence of daily electricity generation from nuclear power and renewables on the achievement of carbon neutrality targets in the four largest nuclear power countries (i.e., the U.S., China, France, and Russia). The study applies the wavelet-transform coherence (WTC), quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), and Granger causality in quantiles (GCQ) approaches for the period from January 2, 2019 to December 29, 2022. The outcomes present that electricity generation from nuclear energy reduces carbon (CO 2) emissions only in Russia, while hydropower generation does not contribute to CO 2 emission reduction in any country. Solar electricity generation decreases CO 2 emissions in different quantiles in the U.S. and Russia, while electricity generation from wind power reduces CO 2 emissions in the U.S. and France. The empirical outcomes also reveal that expanding solar, wind, and nuclear power in the energy mix can enhance the potential of the U.S., France, and Russia to achieve carbon neutrality and secure a sustainable future. However, China is using nuclear and renewables inefficiently regarding carbon neutrality. Therefore, the empirical evidence for China is highly controversial compared to former studies. [Display omitted] • The study examines renewable and nuclear electricity effect on carbon neutrality. • The study focuses on top four major nuclear power countries. • The study applies nonlinear approaches by using high-frequency (daily) data. • Renewable and nuclear electricity have time, frequency, & quantile-varying effect. • The best electricity source change according to each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Carbon emissions are explored in China's building operations from provincial perspective. • GDIM is employed to factorize ten affecting factors of CO 2 emissions in building sub-sectors. • CO 2 emissions of building sub-sectors are predicted with dynamic simulation. • The contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed. Carbon emissions from building operations have a critical impact on achieving carbon peaking goal in China. However, the provincial emission performance in building operations are quite different and it is still unidentified how they affect the national emission change and peaking target, making national emission reduction target hard to implement at the provincial level. This paper explores the driving factors leading to emission changes and examines the prospective emission peaks in China and China's provinces by adopting generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) and the combination of scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the regional emission heterogeneity and the contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed to identify regions and provinces that should be focused on emission monitoring. Results show that in China and most Chinese provinces, energy consumption of commercial buildings, energy consumption and floor space of urban residential buildings besides income improvement, and the per capita CO 2 emissions of rural residential buildings contributed greatly to emission growth. Under current policies, commercial and urban residential buildings in most provinces would fail to reach their emission peaks ahead of schedule. The urban residential buildings in the northern region, commercial and rural residential buildings in the eastern region caused higher CO 2 emissions. At the provincial level, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei made the top contribution to total emissions of commercial, urban residential and rural residential buildings, respectively. Shandong and the provinces in north China of urban residential buildings and four provinces including Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Zhejiang of commercial and rural residential buildings had the significant impact on the uncertainty of the peaking time of CO 2 emissions. These findings provide a strong decision-making reference for Chinese government to formulate targeted regional emission reduction policies in building operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the global greenhouse effect caused by excessive energy-related carbon emissions has attracted more and more attention. In this paper, we studied the dynamic evolution of factors driving China's energy-related CO2 emissions growth from 2007 to 2015 by using energy consumption method and input-output analysis and used the IO-SDA model to decompose the energy carbon emissions. Within the research interval, the results showed that (1) on the energy supply-side, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal was still the main factor to promote the growth of energy-related CO2 emissions. However, the optimization of energy consumption structure is conducive to reducing emissions. Specifically, the high carbon energy represented by raw coal exhibited a downward trend in promoting the increment of energy-related CO2 emissions, while the clean energy represented by natural gas showed an upward trend in promoting the increment of CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that there is still a lot of room for optimization of China's energy consumption structure to reduce emissions. (2) On the energy demand-side, the final demand effect is the main driving force of the growth of carbon emissions from fossil energy. Among them, the secondary industry plays a major role in the final demand effect. The "high carbonization" of the final product reflects the characteristics of China's high energy input in the process of industrialization. At the same time, since the carbon emission efficiency of the tertiary industry and the primary industry is better than that of the secondary industry, actively optimizing the industrial structure is conducive to slowing down the growth of carbon emission brought by the demand effect. (3) The input structure effect is the main restraining factor for the growth of energy carbon emissions, while the energy intensity effect has a slight driving effect on the growth of energy carbon emissions. The results show that China's "extensive" economic growth model has been effectively reversed, but the optimization of fossil energy utilization efficiency is still not obvious, and there is still a large space to curb carbon emissions by improving fossil energy utilization efficiency in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the environmental problems caused by excessive carbon emissions from energy sources have become increasingly serious, which not only aggravates the climate change caused by the greenhouse effect but also seriously restricts the sustainable development of Chinese economy. An attempt is made in this paper to use energy consumption method and input-output method to study the carbon emission structure of China's energy system and industry in 2015 from two perspectives, namely China's energy supply side and energy demand side, by taking into account the two factors of energy invest in gross capital formation and export. The results show that neglecting these two factors will lead to underestimation of intermediate use carbon emissions and overestimation of final use carbon emissions. On energy supply side, the carbon emission structure of China's energy system is still dominated by high-carbon energy (raw coal, coke, diesel, and fuel oil, etc.), accounting for more than 70% of total energy carbon emissions; on the contrary, the natural gas such as clean energy accounts for only 3.45% of total energy carbon emissions, indicating that the energy consumption structure optimization and emission reduction gap of China's energy supply side are still substantial. On energy demand side, the final use (direct consumption by residents and government) produces less carbon emissions, while the intermediate use (production by enterprises) produces more than 90% of the total energy carbon emissions. Fossil energy, power sector, heavy industry, chemical industry, and transportation belong to industries with larger carbon emissions and lower carbon emission efficiency, while agriculture, construction, light industry, and service belong to industries with fewer carbon emissions and higher carbon emission efficiency. This means that the optimization of industrial structure is conducive to slowing down the growth of energy carbon emissions on the demand side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metallurgy industry plays a very important role in China's economic growth. Due to its energy concentration, the energy consumption of the industry accounts for a large proportion of China's total energy consumption, and thus contributes to carbon emissions. Whether the metallurgy industry can successfully reduce emissions is related to the future of China's carbon emissions targets. In this paper, the logarithmic mean Divisia index model is used to analyze the change in China's carbon dioxide emissions from 1991 to 2014. The empirical results show that there are three main factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions of China's metallurgy industry. The three factors are labor productivity, energy intensity and industry size. In addition, we further analyzed the deep motivation of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry, and calculated the future emission reduction potentials. Lastly, according to the empirical results, the paper proposes policy recommendations for the future emission reduction of China's metallurgy industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry is one of the most energy-intensive industries in China, which contributes to high carbon emissions and hinders efforts to reduce the emissions. The high energy consumption and emission have seriously constrained the growth of low carbon economy in China's construction industry. And reducing the carbon emission from construction industry (CECI) has become the key to sustainable development and the achievement of "double carbon target". The paper firstly decomposes the main influencing factors and calculates their effects by LMDI model. Then, the Tapio decoupling index is used to explore the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic output. Finally, the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emissions is analyzed through spatial autocorrelation theory. The results show that the carbon emissions from construction industry are highly increased by the construction employment rate (EM), and may be reduced by the energy intensity (EI) and carbon emission efficiency (CI). And the regions with better decoupling status are the eastern and central regions, which have relatively developed construction industry. Moreover, the spatial-temporal characteristic of carbon emissions is "high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north," showing obviously regional differences. [Display omitted] • Factors about production technology are taken into account, reflecting the characteristics of the construction industry. • Developed regions have better decoupling potential and more responsibility for CO 2. • The spatial distribution is "high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north". • The provinces in a region have similar decoupling status and carbon emission distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy Internet (EI) is typically characterized by digitalization and clean energy that seeks to revolutionize the energy system and reduce carbon emissions. Even though several scholars conclude that EI accelerates the clean energy transition of energy system, since the controversial relationship between digitalization and energy consumption in academia, current studies on the carbon emission reduction advantages of the EI are still in dispute. This paper employs the effect of EI's construction on the carbon emission peak goal of China's energy system based on the system dynamics model and different scenarios. The simulation results find that: (1) the construction of the EI could enable China's energy system to meet the carbon reduction commitment in 2028, with a carbon emission peak of 11.61 billion tons; (2) As digitalization and clean energy become more extensively employed, rising energy demand is satisfied by the manner of consuming low-carbon electricity energy. This is thought to be the primary factor that could promote China to achieve the carbon peak goal earlier than expected; (3) The advancement of digitalization has further promoted the decoupling of China's economic growth from carbon emissions. It is projected that China's energy system will still achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030 when the expected annual GDP growth rate is increased to 6.32%, 5.75%, and 4.6% for the years 2020–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035, respectively. These findings might provide a new perspective for quantitative research on the environmental outcomes of the EI and the relationship between environmental improvement and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glued Laminated Bamboo (GluBam) has been innovated under the support of modern industrial technology, and this renewable material can drive the development of building structural system in a fashion of low carbon footprint. From the perspective of carbon emission, energy consumption and cost-based economy, this paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of steel-GluBam hybrid truss and virtually designed steel truss for a comparison. A steel-GluBam hybrid truss constructed at the Nanjing Tech University is used to carry on this study. The system boundary (i.e., production phase, transportation phase, construction phase, operation phase and disposal phase) of life cycle are fist determined. The mechanical properties of the truss structure are considered as the functional equivalence. The inventory of construction materials and the elements in each phase in the life cycle is compiled from the SimaPro and the available literature/specification. Based on the inventory analysis, the Monte Carlo method is employed to conduct the uncertainty analysis of carbon emission of the truss. The assessment results show that the life cycle carbon emission, energy consumption and cost of the steel-GluBam hybrid truss are equal to 4572.5 kgCO 2eq , 71.15 GJ and 15626.6 CNY, respectively. The production phase is the largest contributor to the carbon emission, energy consumption and cost, and the following one is the operation phase. Whereas the transportation phase, the construction phase and the disposal phase together contribute to only the small parts of emissions and cost. GluBam has the function of carbon sequestration leading to the reduction of carbon emission and energy consumption in the production phase, and other phases have no advantage on the emissions and cost of GluBam. The 95% confidence interval of life cycle carbon emission based on the Monte Carlo simulation is estimated as [4290,6370] kgCO 2eq for the steel-GluBam hybrid truss. With respect to the whole life cycle, using GluBam to replace the steel pipe in the upper chord pole and the diagonal web pole of the truss has a little larger cost but its environmental impact and energy consumption reduce a lot. The railway transportation of GluBam reduces 36.5 kgCO 2eq carbon emission, 0.68 GJ energy consumption and 83.7 CNY cost in the life cycle with reference to the road transportation. The steel-GluBam hybrid truss optimized based on the functional unit occurs in the case of reducing the cross-section of steel pipe from 42 mm × 4 mm to 32 mm × 2.5 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Calculate carbon emissions of energy consumption by using annual emission factors of indirect energy. • Put forward quantitative indicators of mine intelligence. • Impact of intelligence on carbon emissions of energy consumption in mining industry. • Prediction of carbon emissions in mining industry based on intelligent scenario analysis. The intelligent construction of the mining industry has become an emerging trend in its future development plans. As a traditional high energy consumption industry, its energy conservation and emissions reduction have become particularly urgent concerns. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of intelligence on the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the mining industry. This paper first uses dynamic indirect energy emissions factors to build an accounting model for carbon emissions from energy consumption in the mining industry and calculates the related carbon emissions from 2001 to 2020 by sector. Then, an expandable stochastic environmental impact assessment (STIRPAT) model is established to analyze the impact of intellectualization on the carbon emissions intensity of China's mining industry. At the same time, many other important factors are included in the model, and the model is fitted using ridge regression. The results show that the order of influence, from large to small, is as follows: energy intensity, industrial output value, per capita output value, the proportion of output value of large and medium-sized enterprises, per capita stock of fixed assets, average enterprise output value, R&D intensity and proportion of indirect energy. Each 1% increase in the above factors will increase the corresponding carbon emissions intensity by 0.2005%, −0.1271%, −0.1207%, 0.7467%, −0.0595%, −0.09813%, 0.1143% and −0.1419%, respectively. Then, the prediction values of the independent variables are obtained by using the scenario analysis method and grey prediction model, and 12 scenarios are set up to predict the carbon emissions intensity of the mining industry energy consumption from 2021 to 2035 by using the expanded STIRPAT model. By analyzing the prediction results, we conclude that Scenario 8, Scenario 9, Scenario 10, Scenario 11 and Scenario 12 can achieve the emissions reduction goals of the mining industry in 2025 and 2030; the optimal path of emissions reduction is given for various scenarios. Finally, a development strategy for emissions reduction in China's mining industry is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analyze the synergy of CO 2 emission factors of energy-intensive industries via EMD. • Synergy of CO 2 emission factors: long-term trend, short-term volatility. • Elastic coefficient model is used to reveal the heterogeneity of the 10 factors. • Six industries are divided into "stable and balanced" and "sensitive and uneven". Carbon emission is a global problem that countries around the world are paying attention to and urgently need to be resolved. Under the requirements of China's high-quality economic development and the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, energy-intensive industries, as a key link in the industrial chain and the main source of China's CO 2 emissions, have attracted much attention. This paper made a statistical analysis of the scale development of six energy-intensive industries, and explored the fluctuation characteristics of their carbon emissions. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) model was further introduced to analyze the and synergistic effect among the driving factors of carbon emission, revealing the synergistic mechanism of long-term trend and short-term volatility of factors. Then, the elastic sensitivity analysis model of carbon emissions in energy-intensive industries was constructed to study the heterogeneity of driving effects of factor indicators. From the perspective of factors driving, this article reveals the heterogeneity of the driving effects of ten key factor indicators including economic level (GDP), urbanization level (UP), industrial structure (IS), technological innovation (TI), and environmental regulation (ER); from the perspective of industry development, this paper summarized the "stable and balanced" and "sensitive and uneven" trends presented by the heterogeneity of the six energy-intensive industries. Combining the characteristics of industry emission fluctuations, driving factors' synergies and heterogeneity, from the perspective of short-term and long-term development, four targeted emission reduction control strategies were proposed to provide reference for the low-carbon development of energy-intensive industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We estimate the energy rebound effect caused by technological progress in Shanghai. • We use the state space model with time-varying parameter based on the IPAT identity. • Shanghai has a high partial rebound effect on average at the overall-economy level. • Mitigating the energy rebound effect can significantly reduce carbon emissions. • Energy efficiency improvement should not be the only way to conserve energy. Abstract The energy rebound effect is regarded as an obstacle of achieving the expected target of energy-saving policies, especially under a rapid urbanization background in developing counties, such as China. This has become a substantial drag of sustainable development in some cities. Shanghai is the economic center of China, and it is also a typical energy import-dependent mega-city. Investigating the evolution of Shanghai's energy-saving performance and the energy rebound effect is significant for the implementation of energy-saving policies in other similar cities of China and other developing countries. Using the state space model with time-varying parameters and based on the IPAT identity and the Solow residual approach, this paper is the first study to present a specific estimation on Shanghai's energy rebound effect caused by technological progress. The results show that, during the period of 1991–2016, the average energy rebound effect of overall economy and secondary industry in Shanghai was 93.96% and 73.10%, respectively, indicating a high partial rebound effect. Most of expected energy saving caused by improved energy efficiency is offset by extra energy consumption caused by technological progress. Regarding tertiary industry, the average rebound effect was 146.61%, indicating a backfire effect. However, the average energy rebound amount of tertiary industry is less than that of secondary industry. In particular, there is an increasingly negative impact of the rebound effect of tertiary industry on energy conservation in recent years, with the sector's rapid expansion and corresponding increase in energy demand. Furthermore, we estimate the carbon rebound amount (i.e., carbon emissions caused by the energy rebound effect) and find that, on average, the energy rebound effect caused 13.1% and 0.41% increases in carbon emissions in Shanghai and China, respectively. Therefore, mitigating the energy rebound effect can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Due to the substantial impact of the rebound effect, technological progress and energy efficiency improvement should not be the only way to achieve energy-saving target, especially in energy import-dependent mega-cities like Shanghai. Some supporting policies should be implemented to ensure that the expected outcome of energy-saving effort can be realized as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To perform better future trend prediction for an economy-energy-environment (3E) system and address the shortcomings of traditional multivariate grey models, this paper introduces a spatial correlation term into the multivariate discrete grey model, thus creating the SLDGM(1,n) model, and improves the final calculation of the model according to the priority of new information. The validity of the SLDGM(1,n) model is assessed using data from the 3E system in North China, and the SLDGM(1,n) model is applied to predict the future trends of the 3E system in North China. The following conclusions are obtained. First, the introduction of the spatial correlation term and the improvement of the final calculation method are reasonable; the prediction accuracy of the multivariate grey model is improved, and multiple systems are modeled simultaneously. Second, the SLDGM(1,n) model calculates the spatial spillover effect, and according to the simulation results for North China from 2010 to 2019, Hebei's energy consumption and carbon emissions are subject to the largest influence from other provinces, while its economic development level is subject to the smallest influence, and the carbon emissions of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are subject to a negative spatial influence effect. Third, the prediction results indicate that under the effect of spatial correlation, the energy consumption of all five provinces in North China will continue to rise; the carbon emissions of Beijing will gradually decline while the carbon emissions of the other four provinces will all gradually rise, and the per capita GDP of the five provinces is expected to increase by more than 50% by 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Delta region is one of the key areas of energy transition for China's carbon neutrality. The pathways to carbon neutrality are diverse in the regional level due to the different conditions on the energy supply and demand side. How to construct comprehensive assessment index system and evaluate regional pathways to carbon neutrality is an urgent problem to be solved. To fill this gap, this paper evaluates the carbon neutrality pathways of supply-side and demand-side coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios): Business as usual, energy intensity decrease, energy structure reform, power supply technology innovation and policies mix. The simulation results indicate that: (1) 22 of the 64 sub-scenarios can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) In energy intensity decrease scenario, an annual 6% reduction in energy intensity could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. (3) The policies mix scenario can lead to 21 sub-scenarios with pathways to achieve carbon neutrality when the average annual energy intensity decreases by 4% or more. Additionally, the end-use sectors electrification level should reach 64.19% at least by 2060. (4) There can be 14 sub-scenarios to achieve zero carbon emissions in the power plant sector, but annual energy intensity should be reduced by at least 4%. Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis, the article evaluated the 22 sub-scenarios with the index of regional pathways to carbon neutrality. The result shows that the mixed policies of energy intensity reduction, energy structure reformation and power technology innovation can promote the coordination of supply-side and demand-side. This study can provide reference for policymakers to formulate effective policies to realize carbon neutrality. • The coordination of energy supply and energy demand is assessed. • A model with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios) is developed for carbon neutrality. • Energy intensity drops by 4% or more can lead to multiple carbon neutral pathways. • A comprehensive assessment index of regional carbon neutral pathways is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• BIM-DB can effectively simulate building performance parameters. • The PSO-RF-NSGA-III hybrid method can be used to predict and optimize building performance. • NSGA can simultaneously optimize energy consumption, carbon emissions and thermal comfort. • The optimal building parameters are different in different regions. Near-zero-energy-consumption buildings (NZEBs) are of great significance for sustainable development, and their design and research have attracted increasing academic attention. To drive and realize the energy saving design and achieve carbon emission and thermal comfort optimization of NZEBs, in this paper, an intelligent optimization method integrating the BIM-DB and PSO-RF-NSGA-III method is established. Multiobjective optimization problems involving NZEBs in four typical climate regions in China are explored. With a typical office building as an example, first, simulation calculations regarding the energy consumption, carbon emissions and indoor thermal comfort in the four climatic regions are performed based on orthogonal tests and BIM-DB. Second, the nonlinear mapping relationships between building design parameters and prediction targets are constructed with the PSO-RF model, which is trained with sample data. The obtained nonlinear mapping relations are used to establish the objective function of NSGA-III, and the multiobjective Pareto-optimal solution set is obtained with the developed PSO-RF-NSGA-III algorithm. Finally, the only optimal solution is determined by using the ideal point method, and reference near-zero-energy-consumption office building parameters are calculated for different climate regions. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The PSO-RF algorithm can efficiently predict building energy consumption, carbon emissions and thermal comfort. In the four regions, the goodness of fit of the three targets is greater than 0.94. (2) Multiobjective optimization can be performed with the proposed RF-NSGA-III intelligent optimization method. After optimizing multiple groups of optimization schemes and adopting energy saving measures, the energy consumption levels in the four climate regions are reduced by 39.72 %, 32.22 %, 26.94 % and 35.37 %, and the other goals are optimized. (3) Index calculations indicate that the optimized building design parameters meet the specified standards for NZEBs, and the main influencing factors and corresponding measures vary from region to region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the tourism industry, hotels and homestay facilities account for considerable amounts of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. Unlike other types of buildings, occupancy has significant fluctuations over time, while mostly being ignored or using a simple assumption based on energy use intensity or setting the occupancy levels. Due to the lack of occupancy rate information, great uncertainties exist in hotel operations, which leads to erroneous estimates of energy consumption in existing hotel buildings. This paper examines hotel operation practices in China with real occupancy rate data which is critical for reducing the uncertainty of estimating energy consumption patterns. Specifically, this study proposes a two-stage comprehensive and quantitative performance assessment approach for the homestay hotel building considering the system's energy and economic performance simultaneously. Regarding energy performance, there are two key facets to consider: renewable energy penetration and grid impact performance. Additionally, the economic performance (annual income and extra annual investment) of various energy portfolios is evaluated using break-even analysis. The impacts of large fluctuation in occupancy rate on electrical loads are considered and assessed in typical homestay hotels. The proposed assessment approach can comprehensively quantify the impacts of the photovoltaics (PV) areas and battery capacities on the system performance in terms of energy and economics. According to the results of the occupancy-based assessment, the ideal PV area and battery capacity are 400 m2 and 16 kWh, respectively, as opposed to the optimal energy portfolios (PV area 600 m2 and battery capacity 24 kWh) determined from conventional assessment results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a developing country, extensive carbon and sulfur emissions are associated with China’s rapid social and economic development. Chief among them are the emissions from coal and oil consumption. This paper focuses on the demand side, attempting to regulate the range of relative price of oil to coal at the consumption level. Through the adjustment of the relative price, the goal of reducing the emissions of carbon and sulfur could be achieved in the market of energy consumption. Data regression is applied to investigate the functional relationship between emissions and energy prices. The results indicate that when the coal price is less than 300, the higher relative price leads to less carbon and sulfur emissions; when the coal price is more than 300 and less than 500, there exists an optimal relative price which has the least carbon emissions, and this value is not more than 11.5; when the coal price is more than 500, the smaller relative price is beneficial to decline carbon and sulfur emissions. The changed trend of relative price-sulfur emissions is very similar to relative price-carbon emissions. Compared to the present energy situation in China, the relative price of oil to coal still need to be reduced especially when coal price is more than 500. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• POE was carried out to compare the design target and operational effect after use. • A Large Irregular Green Commercial Building was chosen for in-depth analysis. • We recommend the building energy saving and carbon emission reduction strategy. Commercial buildings, especially large irregular commercial buildings with complex space and dense occupation, have high energy consumption and carbon emissions. Moreover, the actual operating performance differs significantly from its design, in terms of energy conservation and carbon emissions. This study selected an irregular large-scale green commercial building in Dalian, a coastal city in the cold zone of China. The running energy consumption and indoor physical environment were investigated and analyzed, and a satisfaction survey was conducted using the Post-occupancy evaluation (POE) methods. The promotion strategies of holistic design were proposed by comparing the operational building performance with the design target. The research shows that the energy consumption of the building was 68.02 kWh/m2, which failed to meet the standard requirements. The carbon emission was 74.76 kgCO 2 /m2. Less than 10 % of humidity in summer fell in the expected range, and the lowest value of PM 2.5 concentration in winter was 28.3 %. The score of indoor environmental quality and service satisfaction was low. This paper identifies the problems and analyzes the differences between the operation stage and design phase. It provides recommendations and guidelines for optimizing the carbon emission and indoor environment based on the performance improvement of building operational conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, China's economy and energy structure are deeply adjusting to the direction of low-carbonization and non-carbonization with unprecedented efforts. This paper considered carbon emissions and energy endowments, adopted SBM-Undesirable model and spatial Durbin model to calculate the energy efficiency of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2015 to 2019 and analyze the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect on energy efficiency of 7 variables. Empirical results show that: Energy efficiency has spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics; The main influencing factor of China's energy efficiency is energy consumption structure; Regions with strong energy endowment bear the environmental pollution cost of energy consumption areas in China; Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) exists in China, but different provinces and municipalities are distributed in disparate stages; Research and development (R&D) investment only affects local energy efficiency, and has no spillover effect on surrounding areas in China; Foreign direct investment (FDI) has negative impacts on China's energy efficiency, and there is a phenomenon of pollution paradise. The valuable conclusions obtained in this study deepens the insights about the influencing factors of China's energy efficiency under the constraints of carbon emission and energy endowment. Energy efficiency has spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics; The main influencing factor of China's energy efficiency is energy consumption structure; Regions with strong energy endowment bear the environmental pollution cost of energy consumption areas in China; Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) exists in China, but different provinces and municipalities are distributed in disparate stages; Research and development (R&D) investment only affects local energy efficiency, and has no spillover effect on surrounding areas in China; Foreign direct investment (FDI) has negative impacts on China's energy efficiency, and there is a phenomenon of pollution paradise. [Display omitted] • Energy efficiency has spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics. • Energy consumption structure mainly affects energy efficiency. • Environment Kuznets Curve exists in China. • "Pollution paradise hypothesis" exists in foreign direct investment. • Environmental pollution is transferred to surrounding provinces through resource trades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to increased global carbon dioxide emissions, the greenhouse effect is being aggravated, which has attracted wide attention. China is committed to promoting the low-carbon development of all industries. This paper analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Chinese logistics industry, so as to identify the key factors that influence carbon emissions. Based on the carbon emission data of China's logistics industry in 2000–2019, this paper applied the carbon emission coefficients issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the first time, the Generalized Divisia Index Method was used to analyze the degree of influence of the factors on carbon emissions. This method considered more variables and their relationships. The results showed that (1) the carbon emissions of the logistics industry were increased by 3.22 times from 2000 to 2018, and showed negative growth for the first time in 2019; (2) the added value of the logistics industry is the most important factor in increasing carbon emissions (with a contribution ratio of 65.45%), energy consumption and practical population size are the main factors in carbon emissions. The promotion of this industry is subjected to decreased per capita carbon emissions, which have a large impact on total carbon emissions; (3) the intensity of carbon output is the most important factor in the reduction of carbon emissions (with a contribution ratio of −29.1%), where the energy carbon intensity and per capita added value are the main influencing factors with regard to the reduction of carbon emissions, while energy intensity has a negative inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, and (4) the influencing factors have negative effects on the cumulative inhibition of carbon emissions in the logistics industry, to an extent that is far less than the integral promotion of carbon emissions. Finally, according to the research conclusions of this paper, it is feasible to make recommendations for the carbon reduction of the logistics industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia is a very important chemical industry product. It has a wide range of applications in refrigeration, energy, and fertilizers, and 80% of ammonia is used as a nitrogen fertilizer. China mainly produces ammonia and urea from coal gasification, which leads to difficult CO 2 capture and high energy consumption. This study proposed a new process for the production of ammonia and urea by coal direct chemical looping hydrogen production process (CDCLTU). The coal direct chemical looping hydrogen production replaces the air separation unit and water gas conversion unit of the traditional coal-to-urea process (CTU), which effectively separates and captures CO 2 and significantly reduces the energy consumption. A model of the CDCLTU was established using Aspen Plus. Parameter optimization, technoeconomic, and environmental analysis were conducted through simulations. The results showed that CDCLTU could completely replace the air separation system that the CTU relies on. Compared with the traditional process, the utilization rate of C increased from 53.46% to 67.95% in the new process. The energy consumption of CO 2 separation and capture was reduced by 97.04%. The CDCLH had a 79.7% energy efficiency in the hydrogen production process and 99% capture rate of CO 2. The total capital investment was dropped by 41%, unit urea production cost dropped by 12.1%, and the payback period dropped from 7.5 to 3.5 years. This paper provides a new direction for clean and efficient utilization of coal resources. [Display omitted] • Proposed a novel coal-to-urea process by chemical looping technology. • Conducted main parameters optimization and performance analysis for the new process. • The new process reduced 97.04% energy consumption of CO 2 separation and capture. • Production cost of the new process is 12.1% lower than that of the conventional process. • The new process achieved 67.95% C utilization rate and 1.39 t/t lower CO 2 emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting our environment while maintaining economic growth, requires a delicate balance among interlinked sustainable development policies. In this paper, we examine China's economic industries, including a high-resolution of the country's electricity sector during 2020–2030, using a multi-objective optimization model based on Input-Output analysis. This model, investigates the synergy and trade-offs of sustainable development goals in maximizing employment and GDP while minimizing energy and water consumption, CO 2 emissions, and five major pollutants to advance a sustainable industrial structure adjustment pathway for China. Our results reveal that there exists both synergies and trade-offs among multiple objectives, e.g., synergy among goals of minimizing air pollutant emissions and trade-offs between minimizing energy consumption and maximizing employment. Through the planned industrial restructuring period (2020–2030), the GDP, employment, carbon emission, and energy consumption will increase respectively by, 96.1%, 7.2%, 16.8%, 16.8%, and 6.3%, while pollutant emissions would decrease. Moreover, our research indicates that energy and water conservation should be prioritized in industrial structure adjustment strategies and policies. Our model demonstrates how the synergies and trade-offs among multiple policy targets can empower policy-makers, especially in developing nations, to make more informed and optimized industrial structure adjustment policies for sustainable development. • A multi-objective optimization model based on the Input-Output model is proposed. • Synergies and trade-offs among policy targets are examined. • The structural adjustment of economic sectors with fine-resolution power sectors is investigated. • The compromise solution and the most recommended policy priority are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving the peak of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions requires a large amount of green and low-carbon investment. Whether the green finance system can efficiently support the capital need for achieving the CO 2 emissions target in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic is a matter of concern. This paper constructs a system dynamics model (SD model) to illustrate the quantitative relationship between the green finance system and CO 2 emissions and introduce the COVID-19 epidemic as a variable to analyze ten simulation scenarios regarding the carbon emissions commitment realization under different green finance and economic growth status. It is shown that: (1) Regardless of the impact of COVID-19, China can meet its commitment by reaching its CO 2 emissions peak in 2030 and realizing a 20% non-fossil energy proportion in 2025; (2) Under the impact of the epidemic, the goal can not be obtained in all energy consumption scenarios when the government expenditure on the environment is low. The target year of reaching CO 2 emissions peak becomes 2033, 2037, and 2040. The results indicate that reducing government expenditure on environment protection makes the CO 2 emissions peak target less likely to be achieved within a given time frame. We also concluded with important policy implications according to the result of the simulations. Overall, this study makes a reference for other economies and researchers to quantitatively predict the interaction relationship between the green finance system and CO 2 emissions in the context of COVID-19, which provides policymakers with insights into a joint power of energy consumption upgrading and green capital guidance. • Providing empirical studies regarding the mechanism of the inhibitory effect of green finance on CO 2 emissions. • Using systems dynamics model to address the missing data problem. • Making solid suggestions under COVID-19 Epidemic. • Building the relationship between the green finance system and CO 2 emissions and making forecasts for "3060" mission result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the combustion of fossil fuel became the largest contributing factor of greenhouse gas emissions in China, the growth of energy consumption caused by urbanization has led to significant increase in carbon emissions. Applying both the carbon-emissions-coefficient and the sector-energy-consumption method, we predicted the energy consumption and carbon emissions, explored the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in different urbanization stages, and analyzed the energy crisis in Shandong which is a typical province in China. The results indicate that in 2015 and 2020, the total primary energy consumption will be 1.57 times and 1.85 times higher than that of in 2009, and the carbon emissions are estimated to be 1.48 times and 1.67 times respectively. The urbanization has distinct positive effects on energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the influence is more obvious in the intermediate-stage than in the early-stage. From a policy perspective, this paper could provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical polices with a view to optimize energy structure and mitigate carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing energy and material consumption associated with global economic growth has resulted in the need for more severe efforts at mitigating global climate change. The iron and steel industry consumes 8% of energy and emits 7% of total CO 2 globally. China's iron and steel industry contributes to 15% of that country's total CO 2 emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore the possibility of net zero emissions in the iron and steel industry in China to meet China's goal of carbon neutrality before 2060. In the study presented in this paper, the MESSAGEix–China iron and steel model was developed by integrating the process-based technology of the sector into the IIASA's MESSAGEix framework to explore zero CO 2 emission pathways and their associated impacts on resources, energy, and water in China's iron and steel industry up to 2100. We found that there are multiple pathways to achieving zero CO 2 emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry by the end of the 21st century. More specifically, in all the pathways developed in this study, CO 2 emissions decreased significantly between 2030 and 2060 due to the rapid application of 100% scrap-based Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) and hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-EAFs steel-making technologies. However, by 2060, there will still be 70–360 Mt of CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry; consequently, carbon sink or negative emission technologies are required to offset this and achieve the country's carbon neutrality goal. Furthermore, technologies for achieving zero emissions differ widely in terms of their impacts on the consumption of materials and energy. Compared to the electric (ELE) scenarios, 25–40% of extra iron ore is consumed in the current and new national policy (NPS) scenarios and the DRI scenarios, but 25–220% of scrap is required. At the same time, 20–150% more energy will be saved in the ELE scenarios than in the NPS and DRI scenarios. Finally, we recommend that policy makers design a cross-cutting strategy to achieve zero CO 2 emissions and enhance efforts for material recycling and the provision of clean energy and water. • There are multiple pathways to achieving net zero emissions in China's iron and steel industry. • Steel outputs are essential for reducing CO 2 emissions and conserving materials, energy, and water. • Hydrogen-based DRI and 100% scrap-EAFs technologies are key to achieving zero emissions. • CO 2 mitigation measures have limited impacts on water consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]