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This poverty assessment aims to strengthen the analytical foundation for poverty-reduction policies and interventions in Mali. In recent years, important gains have been made across multiple dimensions of household welfare, but poverty in Mali remains widespread and extreme. The COVID-19 induced crisis has reversed much of the progress in poverty reduction achieved in Mali over the last decade. Rural poverty in Mali is strongly associated with employment in low-productivity agricultural activities, large family sizes, and high dependency ratios. Income inequality has increased in recent years, and geographical disparities in wellbeing have widened.

This poverty assessment aims to inform poverty-focused policymaking in Chad. The report examines recent trends in poverty, inequality, and other social indicators and identifies key constraints on poverty reduction. Although agriculture, pastoralism, and related activities provide livelihoods for about 80 percent of the population, the capital-intensive oil sector drives macroeconomic growth, exports, and fiscal revenues. Eliminating poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Chad will require robust and sustained interventions along three strategic axes: (i) economic diversification, with a focus on the rural sector; (ii) building resilience to multidimensional shocks; and (iii) accelerating human capital formation. Chad faces enormous challenges, and the effectiveness of its poverty reduction efforts will hinge on factors that extend beyond economic policy, including the reestablishment of peace and security through improved governance, as well as a comprehensive effort to address the country’s profound gender disparities.

Mobile money lowers the costs of financial transactions, making it a promising tool for brining financial services to rural areas. This paper studies the effects of rolling out mobile money agents in poor and remote areas in Northern Uganda. The authors randomly assigned 329 areas to receive an agent in 2017, using 329 areas as a control group. Data from a 2018 household survey and administrative transactions data show little effect of the rollout. Mobile money transactions remained low, suggesting policies focused only on opening mobile money agents will not lead to transformative effects in poor and remote areas.

Due to the strong economic growth maintained in the last 15 years, Uzbekistan made progress in reducing gender inequality. At the same time, several demographic and structural challenges remain; and effectively engaging women in the economy is one of them. While modernizing various sectors of the economy will foster progress and development, it may also result in setbacks for women, as they lack the skills and education needed to successfully adjust to a changing reality. While women constitute around 50 percent of the national population, their participation in the formal labor market is limited. Active women’s participation offers a reserved potential for further national economic growth and improved livelihoods for women in Uzbekistan. The link between women’s productive participation in the country’s economy and improved economic indicators is well documented across the world. Hence, to maintain strong economic growth, it is in Uzbekistan’s national interest to improve women’s participation in the formal economy. Not only can significant economic benefits be realized by mobilizing such latent productive potential, but it can be achieved in parallel with improving women’s capacity to make decisions about their own lives and act on them. The objective of this study is to examine how gender influences opportunities and risks in accessing livelihoods in Uzbekistan. It seeks to identify the constraints to, and opportunities for, increased socioeconomic resilience among rural women in Uzbekistan, and it has the potential to inform livelihoods programming. The study focuses on women in rural areas, as they represent a large portion of productive members of Uzbek society who are insufficiently integrated into the formal labor market. The study adopts a capability approach6 to understand the distinct aspirations, opportunities, and barriers for rural women in income-generating activities. It focuses on supply-side challenges faced by women and enablers of women’s work (e.g., low labor demand and lack of formal employment opportunities). The study is centered on the premise that a gender-inclusive approach should be an integral goal of livelihood support in Uzbekistan.

Uganda’s progress in reducing poverty from 1993 to 2006 is a remarkable story of success that has been well told. The narrative of Uganda’s continued, albeit it slightly slower, progress in reducing poverty since 2006 is less familiar. This was a period in which growth slowed as the gains from reforms years earlier had been fully realized, and weak infrastructure and increasing corruption increasingly constrained private sector competitiveness (World Bank 2015). This report examines Uganda’s progress in reducing poverty, with a specific focus on the period 2006 to 2013. The report shows that high growth from 2006 to 2010 benefited poverty reduction. Before turning in further detail to the key findings of the report, it is important to note that the analysis undertaken in this report is only possible because the Government of Uganda has invested in a high quality series of household surveys to document progress in wellbeing since 1993. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics has conducted high-quality household surveys that every three to four years that have provided a comparable series of data on poverty and other household characteristics for the last twenty years. Uganda is one of the few countries in the region to have achieved this level of comparable, frequent poverty monitoring over time. Without this, it would not be possible to document the lessons Uganda provides.

The rural economy in Bangladesh has been a powerful source of economic growth and has substantially reduced poverty, especially since 2000, but the remarkable transformation and unprecedented dynamism in rural Bangladesh are an underexplored, underappreciated, and largely untold story. The analysis identifies the key changes occurring in the rural economy, the principal drivers of rural incomes, the implications for policy, and related actions to foster future growth, further reduce poverty, and improve food security and nutrition. A substantial strength of this study is its empirical foundation, consisting of three sets of detailed data on rural households. Two of the datasets are unique in tracking the same set of households for more than two decades. These data make it possible to examine how change is occurring within and among rural households; they shed considerable light on trends that tend to be obscured at more aggregate levels of analysis. Nationally representative surveys and aggregate secondary data provide complementary and contextually rich insights into the household data.

This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) identifies the binding constraints to reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in Ethiopia. Achieving those goals requires a two pronged strategy of building on the strengths of past performance as well as introducing new elements. Progress in rural livelihoods drove poverty reduction in the past and will likely do so in the future. In addition, faster, and more inclusive, private sector-led structural change and ‘getting urbanization right’ are essential going forward. The report identifies two key challenges to sustainable progress: Ethiopia needs sustainably financed infrastructure that enables private investment to flourish and reduces reliance on public borrowing. It must also strengthen feedback mechanisms that inform policymakers of what works and what doesn’t so that the aspirations of a rapidly rising and better-educated working-age population can be met. The report is structured in two parts: Part A analyses the past and Part B identifies priorities for the future.

The agricultural and food production sector plays a key role in fighting poverty and food insecurity in Moldova, but is facing critical challenges to modernize and integrate into the international market. This paper focuses on smallholder farms, which make up 95 percent of all farms, and explores their potential for growth and the poverty links. Findings reveal that structural change is slow and smallholder farm growth in Moldova is an exception, not the rule. Only a small share of smallholder farms have the interest or capacity to commercialize but need targeted support policies to grow, intensify their farm activities, and integrate into the markets. For the remaining majority, enhancing their livelihoods calls for policies beyond the agricultural sector to help farm households diversify toward non-farm income.

Despite myriad challenges, Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of Africa’s frontier economies, with headline growth in the most recent decade propelling the country toward middle-income status. Less well understood is how risk dynamics associated with production, markets, and policy adversely impact sector performance, in terms of both influencing ex ante decision making among farmers, traders, and other sector stakeholders and causing ex post losses to crops, livestock, and incomes - destabilizing livelihoods and jeopardizing the country’s food security. The present study was commissioned in part to bridge this knowledge gap. It is the first step in a multiphase process designed to integrate a stronger risk focus into sector planning and development programs. It seeks to learn from and build on a range of broad initiatives by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and its development partners purposed to enhance Kenya’s resilience and response to natural disasters. The ultimate objective is implementation of a holistic and systematic risk management system that will reduce the vulnerability and strengthen the resiliency of Kenya’s agricultural supply chains, and the livelihoods that depend on them. This sector risk assessment is the primary output of phase one. The study’s main objective is to identify, assess, and prioritize principal risks facing Kenya’s agriculture sector by analyzing their impacts via quantitative and qualitative measures. The study’s main findings highlight an agriculture sector increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather variability. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of Kenya’s agriculture sector and a discussion of key growth constraints. Chapter three assesses the main agricultural risks (production, market, and enabling environment). Chapter four analyzes the frequency and severity of the major risks identified and assesses their impact. Chapter five presents some stakeholder perceptions of these risks and the potential to improve their management. Chapter six concludes with an assessment of priorities for risk management and a broad discussion of possible risk management measures that can help to strengthen the resiliency of agricultural supply chains and the livelihoods they support.

This paper analyzes environmental reliance, poverty, and climate vulnerability among more than 7,300 households in forest adjacent communities in 24 developing countries. The data are from the detailed, quarterly income recording done by the Poverty Environment Network project. Observed income is combined with predicted income (based on households’ assets and other characteristics) to create four categories of households: income and asset poor (structurally poor), income rich and asset poor (stochastically non-poor), income poor and asset rich (stochastically poor), and income and asset rich (structurally non-poor). The income and asset poor generate 29 percent of their income from environmental resources, more than the other three categories. The income poor are more exposed to extreme and variable climate conditions. They tend to live in dryer (and hotter) villages in the dry forest zones, in wetter villages in the wet zones, and experience larger rainfall fluctuations. Among the self-reported income-generating responses to income shocks, extracting more environmental resources ranks second to seeking wage labor. Given high reliance on forest and other environmental resources, a concerning finding is that, in the Africa subsample (dominated by dry forests), the rate of forest loss is more than four times higher for the income asset poor compared with the income asset rich. Special attention should be given to the poorest households in dry areas, predominantly in Africa. They are (already) exposed to more extreme climate conditions, they suffer the highest forest loss, and the forest benefits are at risk in global warming scenarios.

This paper provides new empirical insights on the joint distribution of consumption, income, and wealth in three of the poorest countries in the world — Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda — all located in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The first finding is that while income inequality is similar to that of the United States (US), wealth inequality is barely one-third that of the US. Similarly, while the top of the income distribution (1 and 10 percent) earns a similar share of total income in SSA as in the US, the share of total wealth accumulated by the income-rich in SSA is one-fifth of its US counterpart. The main contributions of the paper are to document: (i) this dwarfed transmission from income to wealth, which suggests that SSA households face a larger inability to save and accumulate wealth compared with US households; and (ii) a lower transmission from income to consumption inequality, which suggests the presence of powerful institutions that favor consumption insurance to the detriment of saving. These features are more relevant for rural areas, which represent roughly four-fifths of the total population. The paper identifies the few successful pockets of the SSA population that are able to accumulate wealth by exploring sources of inequality such as age, education, migration, borrowing ability, and societal systems.

Between 2008 and 2012 the urban/rural poverty divide substantially narrowed down, which was the result of relatively stable rural and rising urban poverty rates. Over the same period, food inflation spiked, whereby strong links between domestic and global price movements were observed owed to major import dependence on food. The high shares of consumption that households dedicate to food, especially among the poor, leave limited scope to deal with food price surges by economizing on non-food expenditure. Food price increases of 5, 10, and 15 percent are estimated to increase poverty rates between 2 and 5 percentage points in the baseline scenario.

The paper investigates the structure and dynamics of consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity in Tanzania. The analysis covers the period 2001 to 2012. It reveals moderate and declining levels of consumption inequality at the national level, but increasing inequalities between geographic regions. Spatial inequalities are mainly driven by the disparities of households’ characteristics and endowments across geographic locations. An important part of these endowments results from intergenerational transmission of parental background. Father’s education appears as the most important background variable affecting consumption and income in Tanzania. Without appropriate policy actions, there are few chances for the next generations to spring out of the poverty and inequality lived by their parents, engendering risks of poverty and inequality traps in the country.

Reforestation measures for degraded lands, strategies for the sustainable management of forest resources, and agroforestry practices that incorporate trees into farming systems are increasingly demonstrating their promise for producing commercialized tree products. Although the level of investment so far has remained modest, the challenge is to find ways to scale up promising investments in a way that will have a clear impact at the landscape level. These types of investments can help achieve the triple wins of climate-smart agriculture: increased incomes and yields, climate change adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation.Market trends are promising for a wide range of tree-based technologies, including tropical fruits, cashews, honey, timber and wood products, lipids, gums and resins, tree crops, and agroforestry systems. In many cases, African entrepreneurs, farmers, civil society, and governments have responded dynamically to the widespread challenge of land degradation. The continent is dotted with landscapes where production of trees on farms and in managed forests has grown dramatically to meet market and subsistence needs; sustainable agricultural practices and revegetation have restored soils and watersheds; and key conservation areas are being protected. However, this is not happening at the scale required by societal needs in Africa. In part, this is due to a lack of strategic cooperation and coordination between private sector investors and land managers (who are focused on realizing profitable opportunities and meeting their own needs) and public and civil society actors (who are focused on restoring forest cover and ecosystem services). Such coordination is only possible when the biophysical potential for landscape restoration, private sector investment opportunity and incentives, and societal demand for multiple benefits converge. Much can be learned from examples of large-scale landscape restoration in Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Tanzania, and Zambia, and the variable roles of the private sector, farmers, government, and civil society in supporting and undertaking investment.

The report is organized into nine chapters. Chapter one provides the introduction to the report. Chapter two presents alternative approaches to agribusiness development and chapter three discusses the role of agribusiness incubators. Chapter four discusses the challenges of agribusiness incubators and chapter five presents a typology of agribusiness incubators. Chapter six elaborates on the evolution of incubators over time. Chapter seven presents the analysis of impact and cost-benefits. Chapter eight summarizes good practices and lessons learned. Chapter nine presents the recommendations.

There is a growing concern among policy makers and the international development community about the rapid concentration of migrants in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar (UB) and its social, economic, and environmental consequences (UNDP, 2003). These concerns call for a good understanding of the nature of migration in Mongolia and its impacts on the life of migrants. Using the 2007-08 Household Economic and Social Survey of Mongolia, this paper aims to: (a) document the characteristics of recent internal migration in Mongolia; and (b) assess the livelihoods of rural-to-urban migrants in comparison to those staying in rural areas as well as to local urban residents. The analysis in this paper suggests that rural out-migration is negatively correlated with the chance of falling into poverty. For those who did not migrate from rural areas, their poverty incidence was much higher, and their consumption level much lower, than that of rural-to-urban migrants. However, not all urban destinations are equal: there is a large discrepancy in livelihoods between those moving to aimag centers versus those moving the UB. The poverty incidence of rural migrant families moving into aimag centers was 33 percent, whereas 24 percent for those migrant families moving into UB.

The financial crisis of 2008-09 has considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia. When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of 2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to recover and killed over one million heads of livestock, the slowdown is likely to have significant impacts on poverty as well as the distribution of income and consumption among the poor and non-poor. In this paper we examine the poverty and distributional impacts of the crisis in Mongolia, relying on predictions from a simulation model based on pre-crisis data, given that household data to measure impacts during and after the crisis is unavailable. It is difficult to predict the distributional impacts of the financial crisis with a high degree of confidence. Evidence from previous crises suggests that relative inequality falls about as often as it rises during aggregate contractions (Paci et al, 2008). Furthermore, as the crisis spreads within a country (through adjustments in domestic credit and labor markets and fiscal policies), its impacts across different groups, sectors or areas became all the more difficult to track. The paper is structured as follows. Section two outlines the basic methodological approach used to create the simulation results used here. Section three discusses the macroeconomic projections that are used as inputs into the model. Sections four and five examine the model's projections for poverty and distributional impacts respectively, section six discusses the impact of Dzud (severe winter) and section seven concludes.

Reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions affecting agriculture in developing countries, particularly by cuts to agricultural export taxes and by some reductions in government assistance to agriculture in high-income countries, but international trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. This paper summarizes a series of empirical studies that focus on the effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade for poverty and inequality, especially in developing countries. To obtain different insights into the various impacts, two global studies are undertaken using the World Bank's Linkage model, one multi-country study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and ten country case studies are also included, each using a national economy-wide model. The Linkage model results suggest that liberalization will reduce international inequality, largely by boosting farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and will reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the GTAP model for a sample of 15 countries, and the ten stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue.

The relative prosperity enjoyed by Uganda during the 1960s, based largely on the traditional exports of coffee, tea, cotton, and tobacco, was eroded by a devastating civil war over the period 1971 to 1985. The paper is based upon interviews with selected respondents, including government authorities, exporting companies, donors, and practitioner organizations, carried out in 2007 and 2008. The paper is divided into four sections. Section one provides a brief historical perspective on the emergence of the Ugandan fruit and vegetable export industry and examines the role played by different government and donor initiatives in the initial shaping of the sector, between the late 1980s and late 1990s. Section two highlights the strategic commercial approaches adopted by Ugandan exporting companies and farmers during the 2000s in response to past performance and in the face of evolving regulatory and market requirements, especially in the European Union. Section three examines the rationale for, means of support of, and apparent efficacy of a range of recent programs seeking to improve or sustain the competitiveness of Uganda's fruit and vegetable exports via improved compliance with regulatory or private standards. Lessons are drawn from this experience. Section four provides a brief set of general conclusions.

Capitalizing on the most recent estimates of agricultural price distortions in China and in other countries, this paper assesses the economic and poverty impact of global and domestic trade reform in China. It also examines the interplay between the trade reforms and factor market reforms aimed at improving the allocation of labor within the Chinese economy. The results suggest that trade reforms in the rest of the world, land reform and hukou reform all serve to reduce poverty, while unilateral trade reforms result in a small poverty increase. Agricultural distortions are important factors in determining the distributional and poverty effects of trade reform packages, although their impacts on aggregate trade and welfare appear to be small. A comprehensive reform package which bundles the reforms in commodity and factor markets together may benefit all broad household groups in China.

The purpose of this report is to provide a detailed analysis of the behavior of cropping output in agriculture between 1992 and 2006 in Vietnam at both the national and regional level. There are several motivations. The report focuses our analysis on trends with respect to how rapidly output was growing in real terms. The next parts of the chain will link output to farm incomes more directly. First this requires information on the value-added from crop production (gross output value less the cost of intermediate inputs) in order to convert gross revenue into real net income. Second, the report will have to convert 'real farm profits' measured in producer prices, to 'real incomes' that link to farmer welfare, utilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for rural households. Third, the period 1992 through 2006 has been one of considerable change in the economic and policy environment that might affect the growth of agriculture. In this report, the report focus only on the trends in real output at the national and sub-regional level, and save the latter two links of the chain for future work.

The story of agricultural policy in Northeast Asia over the past 50 years illustrates the dramatic changes that can occur in distortions to agricultural incentives faced by producers and consumers at different stages of economic development. In this study of Japan, the Republic of Korea (the southern part of the peninsula, hereafter referred to as Korea) and the island of Taiwan, China (hereafter referred to as Taiwan), the authors estimate the degree of distortions for key agricultural products as well as for the agricultural sector as a whole over a period when these economies transitioned from low- or middle- to high-income status the beginning of the so-called East Asian economic miracle of dramatic industrial development. The three economies in terms of the nature of their economies, including their resource endowments that determined the course of their modern economic growth and development. The evolution of agricultural policies in the three economies is then reviewed before discussing how to measure distortions to agricultural incentives using the methodology from Anderson et al. (2008), the focus of which is on nominal and relative rates of assistance. Implications of empirical findings for policy reforms in the three economies are discussed in the final section, where the authors also identify lessons for later-developing economies experiencing similar structural transformations in the course of their economic growth. Statistical observations are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that the success of rapid industrialization that advanced these economies to the middle-income stage resulted in declines in agriculture's comparative advantage associated with the growing income disparity between farmers and employees in non-agricultural sectors.

This article assesses the impact of the East Asian financial crisis on farm households in two of the region’s most affected countries, Indonesia and Thailand, using detailed householdlevel survey data collected before and after the crisis began. Although the nature of the shocks in the two countries were similar, the impact on farmers’ income (particularly on distribution) was quite different. In Thailand, poor farmers bore the brunt of the crisis, in part because of their greater reliance on the urban economy, than did poor farmers in Indonesia. Urban-rural links are much weaker in Indonesia. Farmers in both countries, particularly those specializing in export crops, benefited from the currency devaluation. Although there is some evidence that the productivity of the smallest landholders declined over the period in question, it is difficult to attribute this directly to the financial crisis. At least in Thailand, a rural credit crunch does not seem to have materialized. Now that the East Asian financial crisis has waned, its impact on two of the region’s most affected countries, Indonesia and Thailand, can be more readily assessed. Agriculture is the major employer in these economies, yet little is known about how farm households weathered the crisis. Hyperbolic news reports notwithstanding, many farmers surely benefited from the exchange rate depreciation. Other effects of the crisis, however, may not have been so sanguine. Overall, one would expect considerable variation in the impact of the crisis within the rural sector. Of particular interest to policymakers, given the implications for the design of safety net programs and balanced rural development, is how the rural poor fared relative to better-off households. This article uses detailed household survey data from Indonesia and Thailand collected before and after the onset of the 1997 financial crisis to explore its effect on farm production and income, especially its differential impact on the poor.