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Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ‐GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ‐GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post‐glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post‐glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The plants' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human‐induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid‐Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050–2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with algorithms from the R‐package "biomod2" and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others. Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long‐term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data. Furthermore, the models suggest long‐term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species' historical distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study tests the usefulness of SoLIM software and GIS techniques for the reconstruction of large vegetation formations from the mid‐Holocene period in Romania. We used current reference climate data (temperature, precipitation) and the current extent of ecological regions in Romania to derive climate optimality functions for each vegetation formation. The optimality functions were used to simulate current and past distributions of vegetation. The results showed that the current and mid‐Holocene simulated spatial distributions of vegetation are quite similar. Changes were found for about 14% of the Romanian territory (33 946 km2), the most important being the retreat of coniferous forests in favor of mixed forests and of mixed forests in favor of forest steppe. The former is validated by previous pollen‐based studies showing the transition from coniferous forests to mixed forests that occurred in several areas of the country after the mid‐Holocene. The study demonstrates the potential of this methodological approach to reconstruct past vegetation formations, and at the same time that it is a straightforward and expert knowledge‐based method. Although our application uses only climate factors, the results can be further refined by incorporating additional drivers (soil and landform information, site‐specific pollen and fossil data, wildfire data) for a more accurate inference of paleovegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Piacenzian (3.60–2.58 Ma) covers the last stage of the Neogene just before the Earth's climate turned from relatively stable warm conditions to the cooler climate with high amplitude glacial‐interglacial oscillations of the Pleistocene. Even during this period early fluctuations towards cooler conditions occurred, and sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions show stepwise increasing gradients. The zonal Pacific SST gradient which indicates the strength of the Walker circulation appears to have increased in two steps starting in the Piacenzian. We investigated vegetation and climate change in western equatorial South America under the influence of the Walker circulation and to detect signs for the onset of cooling in the tropics. We studied vegetation changes in western Ecuador using palynological analysis of 88 sediment samples from marine Ocean Drilling Program Site 1239 dated between 3.9 and 2.7 Ma. A general trend towards more open vegetation is observed. The climate changes towards cooler conditions, which is manifested by a lowering of the forest line from 3.3 Ma on. The increase of Amaranthaceae pollen after 3.1 Ma suggests drier conditions along the coast. A comparison with mid‐Piacenzian warm period (mPWP) modeling shows that data and models agree regarding a drier coastal climate during the mPWP. The isochronous occurrence of environmental changes in the presented record, that is, cooling and coastal drying, with the first major pulse of ice‐rafted debris and cooling temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere (between 3.28 and 3.31 Ma) suggests that these changes might have been a precursor of the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Plain Language Summary: Around 3.6 to 2.6 million years ago was a time in Earth's history when many conditions were similar to today like the arrangement of the continents, vegetation, and greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the Arctic was not yet covered by ice sheets, and the global climate was warmer, making this time period well suited to study the drivers and mechanisms of warm climates. Towards the end of this period, global climate started to cool, which is known mainly from Northern Hemisphere climate reconstructions. We wanted to find out if cooling and drying conditions found in other records also occurred in the South American tropics. Fossil pollen assemblages preserved in marine sediments can tell us which plants grew in our study area (broadly western Ecuador). Since plants have different (known) climatic requirements, we can reconstruct past rainfall and temperatures as well. We find cooling and drying of neotropical climate, possibly linked to the period preceding the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Studying past climates can help us to better understand and constrain present and future climate developments. Key Points: We present a marine pollen record of climate and vegetation change in western equatorial South America during the PiacenzianFrom around 3.3 Ma, the vegetation became more open, the climate became cooler and the coastal area became drierThe inferences from the pollen record are in agreement with climate modeling results for the mid‐Piacenzian warm period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A consensus on Holocene climate variability at the modern northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) region remains elusive. Here, we present a pollen‐based reconstruction of vegetation history and associated climate variations of a sediment core from Huangqihai Lake, central Inner Mongolia. During 10.7 to 8.8 cal kaBP, typical steppe with small patches of forest dominated the lake area, suggesting a moderately wet climate, followed by ameliorating climatic conditions until 8.0 cal kaBP as deduced by the expansion of forest. Typical steppe recovered the lake area between 8.0 and 7.2 cal kaBP, reflecting a deterioration of climatic conditions; in combination with other proxy records in the study region, we noticed that severe aridity was prevailed in the lake area between 8.0 and 7.6 cal kaBP. During 7.2 to 3.2 cal kaBP, abundant tree pollen indicated dominance of forest‐steppe around the lake, marking regionally wet conditions. A notable absence of broadleaved trees after 5.2 cal kaBP reveals a slight drying trend, and climate deterioration from 4.5 to 4.1 cal kaBP might be linked to the 4.2 ka event. After 3.2 cal kaBP, a transition to steppe was associated with dry conditions in the region. Based on our pollen record and prior paleoclimatic reconstructions in the Huangqihai Lake region, there was a generally‐accepted, stepwise shift to a wet climate during the early Holocene, an overall humid climate from 7.2 to 3.2 cal kaBP, and then severe drought for the rest of the Holocene. Moreover, regional comparisons among pollen records derived from lakes situated in the temperate steppe region suggested a roughly synchronous pattern of vegetation and climate changes during the Holocene and demonstrated an intensified EASM during the middle Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic shrubification is an observable consequence of climate change, already resulting in ecological shifts and global‐scale climate feedbacks including changes in land surface albedo and enhanced evapotranspiration. However, the rate at which shrubs can colonize previously glaciated terrain in a warming world is largely unknown. Reconstructions of past vegetation dynamics in conjunction with climate records can provide critical insights into shrubification rates and controls on plant migration, but paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on pollen may be biased by the influx of exotic pollen to tundra settings. Here, we reconstruct past plant communities using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), which has a more local source area than pollen. We additionally reconstruct past temperature variability using bacterial cell membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) and an aquatic productivity indicator (biogenic silica) to evaluate the relative timing of postglacial ecological and climate changes at a lake on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. The sedaDNA record tightly constrains the colonization of dwarf birch (Betula, a thermophilous shrub) to 5.9 ± 0.1 ka, ~3 ka after local deglaciation as determined by cosmogenic 10Be moraine dating and >2 ka later than Betula pollen is recorded in nearby lake sediment. We then assess the paleovegetation history within the context of summer temperature and find that paleotemperatures were highest prior to 6.3 ka, followed by cooling in the centuries preceding Betula establishment. Together, these molecular proxies reveal that Betula colonization lagged peak summer temperatures, suggesting that inefficient dispersal, rather than climate, may have limited Arctic shrub migration in this region. In addition, these data suggest that pollen‐based climate reconstructions from high latitudes, which rely heavily on the presence and abundance of pollen from thermophilous taxa like Betula, can be compromised by both exotic pollen fluxes and vegetation migration lags. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise of the Study: DNA may be preserved for thousands of years in very cold or dry environments, and plant tissue fragments and pollen trapped in soils and shallow aquatic sediments are well suited for the molecular characterization of past floras. However, one obstacle in this area of study is the limiting bias in the bioinformatic classification of short fragments of degraded DNA from the large, complex genomes of plants. Methods: To establish one possible baseline protocol for the rapid classification of short‐read shotgun metagenomic data for reconstructing plant communities, the read classification programs Kraken, Centrifuge, and MegaBLAST were tested on simulated and ancient data with classification against a reference database targeting plants. Results: Performance tests on simulated data suggest that Kraken and Centrifuge outperform MegaBLAST. Kraken tends to be the most conservative approach with high precision, whereas Centrifuge has higher sensitivity. Reanalysis of 13,000 years of ancient sedimentary DNA from North America characterizes potential post‐glacial vegetation succession. Discussion: Classification method choice has an impact on performance and any downstream interpretation of results. The reanalysis of ancient DNA from glacial lake sediments yielded vegetation histories that varied depending on method, potentially changing paleoecological conclusions drawn from molecular evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The palynomorph assemblage of lake sediments younger than 51.9 kaBP from Wulagai Gobi in Inner Mongolia was analyzed to reconstruct the vegetation and climate. From 51.9 to 30.6 kaBP, the vegetation was arid to semi-arid grassland with only slight changes. According to the palynomorphs, trees and shrubs were very rare. The large number and diversity of algae indicate the presence of a lake. Quantitative climatic conditions were reconstructed using the Best Analogues Method. The results indicate that the annual mean temperature was higher than that at present. The combination of temperature and annual precipitation suggests a change in the climate from cool dry to warm dry and then cool humid. Our results show that the annual precipitation values were mostly higher than that at present but were lower than 400 mm. It infers that the study area was already within the arid to semi-arid regions but with a stronger influence of the summer monsoon during 51.9 to 30.6 kaBP than at present. With slight differences mainly in time scale, the changing trend of the annual temperature curve is consistent with the other climatic records from Antarctica, Greenland, Hulu Cave (East China), and the Tibetan Plateau during the last glacial period. From 30.6 kaBP to present, very few palynomorphs were detected in the samples. Hence, no information about the vegetation and climate could be extracted. Combined with other studies during Late Pleistocene, we presume that the reason for the lack of pollen during this period was caused by an abrupt temperature fall after 30.6 kaBP or that the lacustrine conditions were unsuitable for pollen deposition. It was probably incurred by the oxidation on land prior to deposition. But for those samples only with algae, it might be caused by the fact that algae could finish their life history in a very short time in a seasonal lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site-specific numerical modeling of four sites in two arid alluvial basins within the Nevada Test Site employs a conceptual model of deep arid system hydrodynamics that includes vapor transport, the role of xeric vegetation, and long-term surface boundary transients. Surface boundary sequences, spanning 110 kyr, that best reproduce measured chloride concentration and matric potential profiles from four deep (230-460 m) boreholes concur with independent paleohydrologic and paleoecological records from the region. Simulations constrain a pluvial period associated with infiltration of 2-5 mm yr−1 at 14-13 ka and denote a shift linked to the establishment of desert vegetation at 13-9.5 ka. Retrodicted moisture flux histories inferred from modeling results differ significantly from those determined using the conventional chloride mass balance approach that assumes only downward advection. The modeling approach developed here represents a significant advance in the use of deep vadose zone profile data from arid regions to recover detailed paleohydrologic and current hydrologic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the present paper is to recognize and reconstruct, from the analysis of pollen recovered from sedimentary cores, the predominant plant communities and their variations during the Holocene in Corrientes Argentina, in order to infer changes in climatic conditions, vegetation and paleoenvironmental evolution in the northeast of Argentina. For this study, lakes located in the central region of Corrientes province were selected, comprising part of the western margin of the Iberá Wetland. The palynological analysis of the paleocommunities shows, in a first stage of the mid Holocene, the predominance of marsh grasslands and hygrophilous communities that indicates humid to sub‐humid environmental conditions. In a later stage of the mid Holocene, the paleocommunities show a characteristic association of wetlands, which together with the presence of Typha sp., would indicate sub‐humid to humid conditions and waterlogged or flooded soils with slow‐moving water. For the late Holocene, the paleocommunities show, initially, the presence of a grass‐dominated herbaceous steppe, indicating environmental disturbances, which in the fossil record could reflect the combination of intense wind action under a dry climate. In a later stage, the frequency and variety of species characteristic of humid environments increase, dominated by marshy‐herbaceous species, in addition to the development of the hygrophilous forest. Consequently, since the mid Holocene, the main climate factors responsible for the observed changes in wetland conditions were the location and intensity of the Atlantic and Pacific anticyclones in addition to changes in sea level. These forces mainly affected the distribution of precipitation, causing significant changes in the vegetation communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]