1. Contrasting Response of Mesoscale Convective Systems Occurrence Over Tropical Land and Ocean to Increased Sea Surface Temperature.
- Author
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Dong, Wenhao, Zhao, Ming, Harris, Lucas, Cheng, Kai‐yuan, Zhou, Linjiong, and Ramaswamy, V.
- Abstract
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are pivotal in global energy/water cycles and typically produce extreme weather events. Despite their importance, our understanding of their future change remains limited, largely due to inadequate representation in current climate models. Here, using a global storm‐resolving model that accurately simulates MCSs, we conclude contrasting responses to increased SST in their occurrence, that is, notable decreases over land but increases over ocean. This land‐ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). Over land, notable rises in CIN alongside moderate increases in CAPE effectively suppress (favor) weak to moderate (intense) MCSs, resulting in an overall reduction in MCS occurrences. In contrast, substantial increases in CAPE with minimal changes in CIN over ocean contribute to a significant rise in MCS occurrences. The divergent response in MCS occurrence has profound impacts on both mean and extreme precipitation. Plain Language Summary: Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than half of tropical total rainfall and are the primary drivers of extreme rainfall and flooding events. However, understanding how the frequency of these systems will change in a warming climate remains a challenge. This is due to both the incomplete representation of these disturbances in global climate models and a lack of fundamental theory to explain their dynamics. In this study, we employ a global storm resolving model to shed light on the response of tropical MCS occurrences to climate warming. What emerges is a striking contrast: MCSs over tropical land are projected to decrease in frequency, while their occurrence over tropical oceans is anticipated to rise. This difference is linked to the relative changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. The divergent response in MCS occurrences has significant implications for both average and extreme precipitation patterns. As a result, it presents challenges for developing regional climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of a warming climate. Key Points: A global storm resolving model is employed to study the response of global mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to a warming climateTropical MCS occurrence exhibits divergent responses to increased SST, declining over land while increasing over the oceanThis land‐ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, on MCSs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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