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Abstract: The strength of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low‐frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time‐evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Model performance and uncertainty have been assessed using simulations of the climate in the 20th century based on the 21 models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report ( IPCC AR4) and NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. To evaluate the fidelity and reliability of the simulations of East Asian climate change, the following approaches are compared to assess the uncertainty of East Asian monsoon and climate projection in conjunction with global warming: Taylor diagrams using correlation and standard deviation of model results over East Asia (100°E-150°E, 20°N-45°N), signal-to-noise ratio ( SNR), and principal-mode comparison identified by empirical orthogonal function ( EOF) analysis. On the basis of the Taylor diagram and SNR results, good performance models with statistically high fidelity produce higher values of warming over East Asia and an enhancement of the northwest-southeast temperature gradient between the land and ocean. This enhanced temperature gradient may strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon flow, resulting in a greater increase in precipitation along the East Asian summer rain band on the continental side of East Asia. However, the good performance models as determined by the principal-mode comparison produce lower values of warming over the East Asia region during winter; these values are clearly different from the corresponding values obtained from the Taylor diagram and SNR approaches. These results suggest that the models that give priority to the signal associated with the first leading mode of EOF or the principal mode may predict less warming than other models. The models that predict an El Niño-like state in response to greenhouse warming produce less warming over East Asia, corresponding to the results of the principal-mode comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents reviews of recent research on the structure and the multiscale variability in the East Asian monsoon. The boreal summer and winter seasons in the East Asian monsoon region exhibit significant intraseasonal, interannual and interdecadal variabilities. The interannual intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is mainly associated with the position of the centre of the Bonin High, which may be distinguished from the North Pacific anticyclone. The frequencies of heavy rainfall events and associated rainfall amounts increase, and extreme heavy rainfall is higher in August than in July, due to changes that occurred in the August rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship around the mid-1970s. This intraseasonal variability in EASM plays a more important role in the explanations of the interannual variability and climate change than does the annual mean. The interannual variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) depends on the behaviour of the Siberian High (SH), Aleutian Low and the subtropical westerly jet stream. An EAWM index that takes into account the meridional shear of a 300 hPa zonal wind is a good indicator to represent the intensity of the EAWM. The Arctic Oscillation has a close relationship with the EAWM intensity on the decadal time scale. Distinct sub-seasonal variability is characterized with northward propagation and is observed in the interdecadal change in the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation (ISO)-ENSO relationship. The preceding winter ENSO influenced the early summer northward propagating ISO (NPISO) activity before the late 1970s, whereas a strong NPISO-ENSO relationship appeared during the later summer after the late 1970s. The NPISO-ENSO relationship is robust owing to a tropical atmospheric bridge process involving the Walker Circulation and Rossby Wave propagation. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]