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Tasmania (including offshore islands) has the largest breeding population of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) in Australia, but coastal development around nesting areas has led to habitat loss, often resulting in smaller, fragmented colonies. Colonies have also been subject to predation by introduced domestic species. This study assessed whether historical levels of domestic dog predation could threaten the viability of penguin populations.Data collected since the 1980s detailing little penguin kills by domestic dogs were used to inform the extent of individual mortality events. The potential impact of dog attacks on the viability of little penguin colonies of the sizes typically found on mainland Tasmania was explored using an age‐based population model. Simulation was conducted over decadal timescales to assess the impact of attacks at varying frequencies and intensities on small (100 birds), medium (300 birds) and large (500 birds) colonies that were stable, growing or decreasing.Results suggested that frequent and intense dog attacks markedly increased the probability of colony decline, regardless of colony size. Even large, growing penguin colonies were at risk of decline. The risk of extinction was <10% for medium and large stable colonies if no more than 15–25 penguins were killed per attack and there were no more than 20 attacks per 50 years. For small‐sized colonies, the risk of extinction was <10% if fewer than 10 attacks occurred per 50‐year period and no more than 15 birds were killed per attack.Importantly, results suggested that for small colonies especially, even low levels of predator attack could lead to colony collapse in 10–15 years. For large colonies that were already decreasing, the average time to extinction was markedly increased with additional mortalities from dogs, highlighting the need for ongoing management measures that reduce or eliminate dog attacks to help conserve this iconic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ecological risk assessment, based on life‐history and behavioural attributes of 273 bird taxa, was used to identify which of those taxa are at high risk from negative interactions with offshore wind farms in Australia. The marine area of Australia was divided by state/territory boundaries perpendicular to the coast into eight regions, with Western Australia further divided into north and south, and a Bass Strait region bounded by the Victoria coast and the north coast of Tasmania. These regions were subdivided into coastal, inshore and offshore sub‐regions and a risk summary for all bird taxa occurring in each of these sub‐regions produced. In coastal and inshore sub‐regions of Bass Strait, South Australia and Tasmania, the species with the highest risk scores were Orange‐bellied Parrot Neophema chrysogaster, Furneaux White‐fronted Tern Sterna striata incerta, Swift Parrot Lathamus discolor, Shy Albatross Thalassarche cauta, Far Eastern Curlew Numenius madagascariensis and Anadyr Bar‐tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica anadyrensis. In offshore sub‐regions in southern Australia, the highest risk species were all albatrosses, comprising Northern Royal Diomedea sanfordi, Eastern Antipodean D. antipodensis antipodensis, Gibson's D. antipodensis gibsoni, Wandering D. exulans, Amsterdam D. amsterdamensis and Grey‐headed Albatross T. chrysostoma. Compared to onshore installations, there are logistical challenges to quantifying the potential and realized impacts of offshore wind farms that require different approaches to data collection and analyses. The extensive development of offshore wind farms in the Northern Hemisphere provides examples of best and emerging approaches to quantify and mitigate negative impacts of offshore wind farms that can be applied in an Australian context. Despite differences in the species involved, the same approaches to identifying high‐risk species and to the monitoring and mitigation of negative impacts should be applied in a coordinated, regional‐scale approach to the development of offshore wind farms in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population estimates are widely used to underpin conservation decisions. However, determining accurate population estimates for migratory species is especially challenging, as they are often widespread and it is rarely possible to survey them throughout their full distribution. In the East Asian–Australasian Flyway (EAAF), this problem is compounded by its size (85 million square kilometres) and the number of migratory species it supports (nearly 500). Here, we provide analytical approaches for addressing this problem, presenting a revision of the EAAF population estimates for 37 migratory shorebird species protected under Australian national environmental legislation. Population estimates were generated by (1) summarizing existing count data in the non‐breeding range, (2) spatially extrapolating across uncounted areas, and (3) modelling abundance on the basis of estimates of breeding range and density. Expert review was used to adjust modelled estimates, particularly in under‐counted areas. There were many gaps in shorebird monitoring data, necessitating substantial use of extrapolation and expert review, the extent of which varied among species. Spatial extrapolation to under‐counted areas often produced estimates that were much higher than the observed data, and expert review was used to cross‐check and adjust these where necessary. Estimates of population size obtained through analyses of breeding ranges and density indicated that 18 species were poorly represented by counts in the non‐breeding season. It was difficult to determine independently the robustness of these estimates, but these breeding ground estimates were considered the best available data for 10 species that mostly use poorly surveyed freshwater or pelagic habitats in the non‐breeding season. We discuss the rationale and limitations of these approaches to population estimation, and how they could be modified for other applications. Data available for population estimates will vary in quality and extent among species, regions and migration stage, and approaches need to be flexible enough to provide useful information for conservation policy and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elucidating the factors underlying the origin and maintenance of genetic variation among populations is crucial for our understanding of their ecology and evolution, and also to help identify conservation priorities. While intrinsic movement has been hypothesized as the major determinant of population genetic structuring in abundant vagile species, growing evidence indicates that vagility does not always predict genetic differentiation. However, identifying the determinants of genetic structuring can be challenging, and these are largely unknown for most vagile species. Although, in principle, levels of gene flow can be inferred from neutral allele frequency divergence among populations, underlying assumptions may be unrealistic. Moreover, molecular studies have suggested that contemporary gene flow has often not overridden historical influences on population genetic structure, which indicates potential inadequacies of any interpretations that fail to consider the influence of history in shaping that structure. This exhaustive review of the theoretical and empirical literature investigates the determinants of population genetic differentiation using seabirds as a model system for vagile taxa. Seabirds provide a tractable group within which to identify the determinants of genetic differentiation, given their widespread distribution in marine habitats and an abundance of ecological and genetic studies conducted on this group. Herein we evaluate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in 73 seabird species. Lack of mutation–drift equilibrium observed in 19% of species coincided with lower estimates of genetic differentiation, suggesting that dynamic demographic histories can often lead to erroneous interpretations of contemporary gene flow, even in vagile species. Presence of land across the species sampling range, or sampling of breeding colonies representing ice‐free Pleistocene refuge zones, appear to be associated with genetic differentiation in Tropical and Southern Temperate species, respectively, indicating that long‐term barriers and persistence of populations are important for their genetic structuring. Conversely, biotic factors commonly considered to influence population genetic structure, such as spatial segregation during foraging, were inconsistently associated with population genetic differentiation. In light of these results, we recommend that genetic studies should consider potential historical events when identifying determinants of genetic differentiation among populations to avoid overestimating the role of contemporary factors, even for highly vagile taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migratory species can travel tens of thousands of kilometers each year, spending different parts of their annual cycle in geographically distinct locations. Understanding the drivers of population change is vital for conserving migratory species, yet the challenge of collecting data over entire geographic ranges has hindered attempts to identify the processes leading to observed population changes. Here, we use remotely sensed environmental data and bird count data to investigate the factors driving variability in abundance in two subspecies of a long‐distance migratory shorebird, the bar‐tailed godwit Limosa lapponica. We compiled a spatially and temporally explicit dataset of three environmental variables to identify the conditions experienced by each subspecies in each stage of their annual cycle (breeding, non‐breeding and staging). We used a Bayesian N‐mixture model to analyze 18 years of monthly count data from 21 sites across Australia and New Zealand in relation to the remote sensing data. We found that the abundance of one subspecies L. l. menzbieri in their non‐breeding range was related to climate conditions in breeding grounds, and detected sustained population declines between 1995 and 2012 in both subspecies (L. l. menzbieri, –6.7% and L. l. baueri, –2.1% year–1). To investigate the possible causes of the declines, we quantified changes in habitat extent at 22 migratory staging sites in the Yellow Sea, East Asia, over a 25‐year period and found –1.7% and –1.2% year–1 loss of habitat at staging sites used by L. l. menzbieri and L. l baueri, respectively. Our results highlight the need to identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers of population change across all stages of migration to allow the formulation of effective conservation strategies across entire migratory ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite telemetry data are a key source of animal distribution information for marine ecosystem management and conservation activities. We used two decades of telemetry data from the East Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean. Habitat utilization models for the spring/summer period were developed for six highly abundant, wide-ranging meso- and top-predator species: Adélie Pygoscelis adeliae and emperor Aptenodytes forsteri penguins, light-mantled albatross Phoebetria palpebrata, Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, and Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddellii. The regional predictions from these models were combined to identify areas utilized by multiple species, and therefore likely to be of particular ecological significance. These areas were distributed across the longitudinal breadth of the East Antarctic sector, and were characterized by proximity to breeding colonies, both on the Antarctic continent and on subantarctic islands to the north, and by sea-ice dynamics, particularly locations of winter polynyas. These areas of important habitat were also congruent with many of the areas reported to be showing the strongest regional trends in sea ice seasonality. The results emphasize the importance of on-shore and sea-ice processes to Antarctic marine ecosystems. Our study provides ocean-basin-scale predictions of predator habitat utilization, an assessment of contemporary habitat use against which future changes can be assessed, and is of direct relevance to current conservation planning and spatial management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents three ecological scenarios which demonstrate the influence of cetaceans on the structure and dynamics of the food web in the Southern Ocean. It notes the impact of killer whales on the K-selected prey populations and the fur seal populations' extreme sensitivity to predation by leopard seals. It indicates that cetaceans' population fluctuations appear to play an important role in the changes seen in the Antarctic marine ecosystem in the past and in the present.

We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, mesa- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° 5 are projected to decrease or disappear: ∼50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ∼75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the aspects of marine ecosystem models, which are often used to examine the possible impacts of climate change and human disturbance.