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Aims: In VICTORIA, vericiguat compared with placebo reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) and heart failure hospitalization (HFH) in patients enrolled after a worsening heart failure (WHF) event. We examined clinical outcomes and efficacy of vericiguat as it relates to background use of loop diuretics in patients with WHF. Methods and results: We calculated the total daily loop diuretic dose equivalent to furosemide dosing at randomization and categorized these as: no loop diuretic, 1–39, 41–80, 40, and >80 mg total daily dose (TDD). The primary composite outcome of CVD/HFH and its components were evaluated based on TDD loop diuretic and expressed as adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Post‐randomization rates of change in TDD were also examined. Of 4974 patients (98% of the trial) with diuretic dose information available at randomization, 540 (10.8%) were on no loop diuretic, 647 (13.0%) were on 1–39, 1633 (32.8%) were on 40, 1185 (23.8%) were on 41–80, and 969 (19.4%) were on >80 mg TDD. Patients with higher TDD had a higher rate of primary and secondary clinical outcomes. There were no significant interactions with TDD at randomization and efficacy of vericiguat versus placebo for any outcome (all pinteraction > 0.5). Post‐randomization diuretic dose changes for vericiguat and placebo showed similar rates of up‐titration (19.6 and 20.2/100 person‐years), down‐titration (16.8 and 18.1/100 person‐years), and stopping diuretics (22.9 and 24.2/100 person‐years). Conclusions: Loop diuretic TDD at randomization was independently associated with worse outcomes in this high‐risk population. The efficacy of vericiguat was consistent across the range of diuretic doses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Whether electrocardiographic (ECG) measurements predict mortality in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is unknown. Methods and results: We studied 4880 patients from the Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) trial with a baseline 12‐lead ECG. Associations between ECG measurements and mortality were estimated as hazard ratios (HR) and adjusted for the Meta‐Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score, N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide, and index event. Select interactions between ECG measurements, patient characteristics and mortality were examined. Over a median of 10.8 months, there were 824 cardiovascular (CV) deaths (214 sudden) and 1005 all‐cause deaths. Median age was 68 years (interquartile range [IQR] 60–76), 24% were women, median ejection fraction was 30% (IQR 23–35), 41% had New York Heart Association class III/IV, and median MAGGIC score was 24 (IQR 19–28). After multivariable adjustment, significant associations existed between heart rate (per 5 bpm: HR 1.02), QRS duration (per 10 ms: HR 1.02), absence of left ventricular hypertrophy (HR 0.64) and CV death, and similarly so with all‐cause death (HR 1.02; HR 1.02; HR 0.61, respectively). Contiguous pathologic Q waves were significantly associated with sudden death (HR 1.46), and right ventricular hypertrophy with all‐cause death (HR 1.44). The only sex‐based interaction observed was for pathologic Q waves on CV (men: HR 1.05; women: HR 1.64, pinteraction = 0.024) and all‐cause death (men: HR 0.99; women: HR 1.57; pinteraction = 0.010). Whereas sudden death doubled in females, it did not differ among males (male: HR 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–1.79; female: HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.23–5.06; pinteraction = 0.141). Conclusion: Routine ECG measurements provide additional prognostication of mortality in high‐risk HFrEF patients, particularly in women with contiguous pathologic Q waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Vericiguat significantly reduced the primary composite outcome of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death in the VICTORIA trial. It is unknown if these outcome benefits are related to reverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling with vericiguat in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of vericiguat versus placebo on LV structure and function after 8 months of therapy in patients with HFrEF. Methods and results: Standardized transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) was performed at baseline and after 8 months of therapy in a subset of HFrEF patients in VICTORIA. The co‐primary endpoints were changes in LV end‐systolic volume index (LVESVI) and LV ejection fraction (LVEF). Quality assurance and central reading were performed by an echocardiographic core laboratory blinded to treatment assignment. A total of 419 patients (208 vericiguat, 211 placebo) with high‐quality paired TTE at baseline and 8 months were included. Baseline clinical characteristics were well balanced between treatment groups and echocardiographic characteristics were representative of patients with HFrEF. LVESVI significantly declined (60.7 ± 26.8 to 56.8 ± 30.4 ml/m2; p < 0.01) and LVEF significantly increased (33.0 ± 9.4% to 36.1 ± 10.2%; p < 0.01) in the vericiguat group, but similarly in the placebo group (absolute changes for vericiguat vs. placebo: LVESVI −3.8 ± 15.4 vs. −7.1 ± 20.5 ml/m2; p = 0.07 and LVEF +3.2 ± 8.0% vs. +2.4 ± 7.6%; p = 0.31). The absolute rate per 100 patient‐years of the primary composite endpoint at 8 months tended to be lower in the vericiguat group (19.8) than the placebo group (29.6) (p = 0.07). Conclusions: In this pre‐specified echocardiographic study, significant improvements in LV structure and function occurred over 8 months in both vericiguat and placebo in a high‐risk HFrEF population with recent worsening HF. Further studies are warranted to define the mechanisms of vericiguat's benefit in HFrEF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We assessed a subset of the 5040 patients in VICTORIA receiving sacubitril/valsartan, either at randomization (n = 731) or post-randomization drop-in use (n = 425), to evaluate the relationship between the efficacy and safety of combination therapy with vericiguat.Methods and Results: The efficacy of vericiguat on the primary composite endpoint, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and all-cause mortality was assessed. Safety outcomes included symptomatic hypotension, syncope, worsening renal function, and hyperkalaemia. At randomization, 731 patients received sacubitril/valsartan; they were more frequently from Western Europe or North America, had lower ejection fraction and systolic blood pressure, and more use of triple background HF therapy (65.9% vs. 58.6%), biventricular pacemakers (17.9% vs. 14.1%), or implantable cardioverter defibrillators (42.3% vs. 25.3%). For patients on versus not on sacubitril/valsartan at randomization, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for vericiguat's treatment effect on the primary composite outcome, cardiovascular death, and HF hospitalization were 0.92 (0.71-1.19) versus 0.89 (0.80-0.98), 0.71 (0.45-1.12) versus 0.95 (0.82-1.11), and 0.98 (0.74-1.29) versus 0.87 (0.78-0.98), respectively. No significant interaction existed between sacubitril/valsartan and vericiguat's treatment effect (p-values for interaction: 0.81, 0.23 and 0.47, respectively). Post-randomization, more drop-in sacubitril/valsartan use occurred in those assigned to placebo (n = 238) versus vericiguat (n = 187) (p = 0.007). Symptomatic hypotension (21.0% vs. 23.1%; p = 0.41), renal dysfunction (29.9% vs. 31.9%; p = 0.50), and hyperkalaemia (10.3% vs. 7.9%; p = 0.20) in patients receiving sacubitril/valsartan (n = 992) for ≥3 months were not different by treatment arm.Conclusions: Concomitant use of sacubitril/valsartan for at least 3 months did not alter the efficacy of vericiguat and was similarly safe and tolerated in both study arms. Sacubitril/valsartan was initiated more frequently after randomization in patients assigned to placebo versus vericiguat.Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02861534. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polytomous regression models generalize logistic models for the case of a categorical outcome variable with more than two distinct categories. These models are currently used in clinical research, and it is essential to measure their abilities to distinguish between the categories of the outcome. In 2012, van Calster et al proposed the polytomous discrimination index (PDI) as an extension of the binary discrimination c-statistic to unordered polytomous regression. The PDI is a summary of the simultaneous discrimination between all outcome categories. Previous implementations of the PDI are not capable of running on "big data." This article shows that the PDI formula can be manipulated to depend only on the distributions of the predicted probabilities evaluated for each outcome category and within each observed level of the outcome, which substantially improves the computation time. We present a SAS macro and R function that can rapidly evaluate the PDI and its components. The routines are evaluated on several simulated datasets after varying the number of categories of the outcome and size of the data and two real-world large administrative health datasets. We compare PDI with two other discrimination indices: M-index and hypervolume under the manifold (HUM) on simulated examples. We describe situations where the PDI and HUM, indices based on multiple comparisons, are superior to the M-index, an index based on pairwise comparisons, to detect predictions that are no different than random selection or erroneous due to incorrect ranking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Whether glycaemic control is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. Consequently, we assessed the relationship between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and cardiovascular outcomes in a placebo‐controlled randomized trial which demonstrated no cardiovascular effect of sitagliptin in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease. Methods and results: Secondary analysis of 14 656 TECOS participants with time to event analyses using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. During a median 3.0 (interquartile range 2.3–3.8) year follow‐up, 456 (3.1% of 14 656) patients had first hospitalization for heart failure (HF), 1084 (11.5%) died, 1406 (9.6%) died or were hospitalized for HF, and 1689 (11.5%) had a non‐HF cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, non‐fatal stroke, non‐fatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina). Associations between baseline or time‐varying HbA1c and cardiovascular outcomes were U‐shaped, with the lowest risk when HbA1c was around 7%. Each one‐unit increase in the time‐varying HbA1c above 7% was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11–1.33] for first HF hospitalization, 1.11 (1.03–1.21) for all‐cause death, 1.18 (1.09–1.26) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.10 (1.02–1.17) for non‐HF cardiovascular events. Each one‐unit decrease in the time‐varying HbA1c below 7% was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.12–1.64) for first HF hospitalization, 1.37 (1.16–1.61) for death, 1.42 (1.23–1.64) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.22 (1.06–1.41) for non‐HF cardiovascular events. Conclusion: Glycated haemogobin exhibits a U‐shaped association with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease, with nadir around 7%. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00790205. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Describe the distinguishing features of heart failure (HF) patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial.Methods and Results: Key background characteristics were evaluated in 5050 patients randomized in VICTORIA and categorized into three cohorts reflecting their index worsening HF event. Differences within the VICTORIA population were assessed and compared with PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and COMMANDER HF (A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Reducing the Risk of Death, Myocardial Infarction, or Stroke in Participants with Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Following an Episode of Decompensated Heart Failure). VICTORIA patients had increased risk of mortality and rehospitalization: New York Heart Association class (40% class III), atrial fibrillation (45%), diabetes (47%), hypertension (79%) and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate of 61.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 . Baseline standard of HF care was very good: 60% received triple therapy. Their N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 3377 pg/mL [interquartile range (IQR) 1992-6380]. Natriuretic peptides were 30% higher level in the 67% patients with HF hospitalization <3 months, compared to those within 3-6 months of HF hospitalization and those randomized after recent outpatient intravenous diuretic therapy. Overall the median MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) risk score in VICTORIA was 23 (IQR 18-27) as compared to the MAGGIC risk score in PARADIGM-HF of 20 (IQR 16-24).Conclusions: VICTORIA comprises a broadly generalizable high-risk population of three unique clinical strata of worsening chronic HFrEF despite very good HF therapy. VICTORIA will establish the role of vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, in HFrEF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To examine fracture incidence among participants in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin ( TECOS). Research design and methods We used data from 14 671 participants in the TECOS study who were randomized double-blind to sitagliptin (n = 7332) or placebo (n = 7339). Cumulative fracture incidence rates were calculated and their association with study treatment assignment was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results The baseline mean (standard deviation) participant age was 65.5 (8.0) years, diabetes duration was 11.6 (8.1) years and glycated haemoglobin level was 7.2 (0.5)% [55.2 (5.5) mmol/mol], and 29.3% of participants were women and 32.1% were non-white. During 43 222 person-years' follow-up, 375 (2.6%; 8.7 per 1000 person-years) had a fracture; 146 were major osteoporotic fractures (hip, n = 34; upper extremity, n = 81; and clinical spine, n = 31). Adjusted analyses showed fracture risk increased independently with older age ( P < .001), female sex ( P < .001), white race ( P < .001), lower diastolic blood pressure ( P < .001) and diabetic neuropathy ( P = .003). Sitagliptin, compared with placebo, was not associated with a higher fracture risk [189 vs 186 incident fractures: unadjusted hazard ratio ( HR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.82 to 1.23, P = .944; adjusted HR 1.03, P = .745], major osteoporotic fractures ( P = .673) or hip fractures ( P = .761). Insulin therapy was associated with a higher fracture risk ( HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.91; P = .035), and metformin with a lower risk ( HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98; P = .035). Conclusion Fractures were common among people with diabetes in the TECOS study, but were not related to sitagliptin therapy. Insulin and metformin treatment were associated with higher and lower fracture risks, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aims: Previous epidemiologic studies of acute heart failure (AHF) have involved patients admitted to hospital and fail to account for that unknown proportion discharged directly from the emergency department (ED). We examined discharge rates, and whether outcomes, including mortality, differed based on admission status in AHF. Methods and results: This population-based cohort included all patients ≥65 years presenting to an Alberta ED with HF (ICD9-CM 428.x; 1998 to 2001). Patients were either not admitted (Not-ADM) or directly admitted to hospital (ADM) and followed for one-year. Of 10,415 AHF patients evaluated in the ED, 35% were Not-ADM whereas 65% were ADM. Thirty days after ED presentation the rates of death, re-ED or initial/re-hospitalisation were 3.3%, 44% and 19% for Not-ADM, and 10.9%, 33% and 21% for the ADM patients, respectively (all p <0.0001). At one-year, the rates of death, re-ED or initial/re-hospitalisation were 20%, 82% and 58% for Not-ADM, and 34%, 72% and 60% for ADM, respectively (all p <0.0001). Conclusions: One third of AHF patients were not immediately admitted after an ED visit but most present again to the ED, two-thirds were hospitalised and 20% died within the first year. Our findings provide new impetus to undertake risk assessment and treatment strategies in the ED for AHF. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Aims Methods and results Conclusions Reverse ventricular remodelling, defined as a decrease in left ventricular end‐systolic volume indexed to body surface area (LVESVI) or an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), is associated with improved clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms remain unclear.We evaluated paired core‐lab assessed echocardiograms and measurements of 92 biomarkers at baseline and 8 months thereafter in 419 participants with HFrEF. Reverse ventricular remodelling was defined as a >5% LVEF increase or >15% LVESVI relative decrease between baseline and 8 months. We evaluated the association between baseline biomarkers and their changes with reverse ventricular remodelling in the prospectively randomized controlled VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial. Of 419 patients (median age 66 [interquartile range 57–74] years, 27.4% women), 206 (49.2%) had reverse ventricular remodelling (either a 5% LVEF increase or a 15% LVESVI decrease). There were no differences in baseline biomarker concentrations between patients with versus those without reverse ventricular remodelling on follow‐up. However, in patients with reverse ventricular remodelling there were significant decreases in biomarkers relating to inflammation and cardiac metabolism; particularly the tumour necrosis factor superfamily member 13B (ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77–0.88), growth differentiation factor‐15 (ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.66–0.84), and insulin‐like growth factor binding protein 7 (ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.88).Reverse ventricular remodelling in patients with HFrEF is associated with a decrease of biomarkers related to inflammation and cardiac metabolism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Perioperative antiplatelet agents potentially increase bleeding after non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The protease-activated receptor 1 antagonist vorapaxar reduced cardiovascular events and was associated with increased bleeding versus placebo in NSTE ACS, but its efficacy and safety in noncardiac surgery (NCS) remain unknown. We aimed to evaluate ischemic, bleeding, and long-term outcomes of vorapaxar in NCS after NSTE ACS., Methods and Results: In the TRACER trial, 2202 (17.0%) patients underwent major or minor NCS after NSTE ACS over 1.5 years (median); continuing study treatment perioperatively was recommended. The primary ischemic end point for this analysis was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, or urgent revascularization within 30 days of NCS. Safety outcomes included 30-day NCS bleeding and GUSTO moderate/severe bleeding. Overall, 1171 vorapaxar and 1031 placebo patients underwent NCS. Preoperative aspirin and thienopyridine use was 96.8% versus 97.7% (P=0.235) and 89.1% versus 86.1% (P=0.036) for vorapaxar versus placebo, respectively. Within 30 days of NCS, no differences were observed in the primary ischemic end point between vorapaxar and placebo groups (3.4% versus 3.9%; adjusted odds ratio 0.81, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.33, P=0.41). Similarly, no differences in NCS bleeding (3.9% versus 3.4%; adjusted odds ratio 1.41, 95% CI 0.87 to 2.31, P=0.17) or GUSTO moderate/severe bleeding (4.2% versus 3.7%; adjusted odds ratio 1.15, 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.83, P=0.55) were observed. In a 30-day landmarked analysis, NCS patients had a higher long-term risk of the ischemic end point (adjusted hazard ratio 1.62, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.97, P<0.001) and GUSTO moderate/severe bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio 5.63, 95% CI 3.98 to 7.97, P<0.001) versus patients who did not undergo NCS, independent of study treatment., Conclusion: NCS after NSTE ACS is common and associated with more ischemic outcomes and bleeding. Vorapaxar after NSTE ACS was not associated with increased perioperative ischemic or bleeding events in patients undergoing NCS., (© 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)