Guevara, Jorge, Garcia, Maria, Avegliano, Priscilla, Lima, Debora, Queiroz, Dilermando, Macedo, Maysa, Tizzei, Leonardo, Szwarcman, Daniela, Zadrozny, Bianca, Watson, Campbell, and Jones, Anne
Resampling‐based weather generators simulate new time series of weather variables by reordering the observed values such that the statistics of the simulated data are consistent with the observed ones. These generators are fully data‐driven, easy to implement, and capable of reproducing the dynamics among weather variables. However, although the simulated time series is new, the weather fields produced at arbitrary time steps are replicas of those found in observations, limiting the spatial variability of simulations and preventing the generation of extreme weather fields beyond the range of observed values. To address these limitations, we propose the integration of the Direct Sampling algorithm—a data‐driven method for producing simulations—into resampling‐based weather generators. By incorporating Direct Sampling as a post‐processing step on the outputs of the weather generator, we enhance the spatial variability of the generated weather fields and enable the generation of extreme weather fields. We introduce an approach for generating out‐of‐sample extreme weather fields using Direct Sampling. This method involves utilizing a set of control points in conjunction with Direct Sampling, where the values of these control points are informed by return period analysis. The proposed approach is validated using precipitation, temperature, and cloud cover weather fields in a region of northwest India. The experimental results confirm that Direct Sampling enhances the spatial variability of the weather fields and facilitates the generation of out‐of‐sample precipitation fields that accurately adhere to the spatial statistics provided by return precipitation level maps, as well as the observed precipitation weather field employed in the analysis. Plain Language Summary: Weather generators (WG) are tools for generating artificial weather data. Applications use WG outputs for several tasks, including risk, uncertainty, and climate change analysis. WGs based on "resampling " conforms to a type of WGs that is easy to implement, understand and produce data with properties resembling historical data. However, although those WGs generate new artificial time series, those series are sorted versions of historical weather fields (i.e., weather data values at the spatial domain) Furthermore, those WGs can't generate weather fields with out‐of‐sample data values, that is, extreme weather. In this work, we research the applicability of the Direct Sampling algorithm for creating variations of the simulated weather fields by the WG, and for generating artificial precipitation fields with extreme values. We found that Direct Sampling post‐processing of weather generator outputs is a simple approach to improve the variations of weather fields and for generating extreme precipitation fields conditioned on information provided by an extreme precipitation analysis. The methods exposed in our work show a way to improve the design of those WGs that can benefit several applications like the ones searching the generation of hypothetical extreme weather fields, or seeking better uncertainty quantification or estimates in risk analysis tasks. Key Points: Spatial variability improvement of weather generators based on resampling via the Direct Sampling algorithmDirect Sampling for extreme precipitation fields generation using control points and return periodsEmpirical validation using statistical and connectivity metrics on a data set with precipitation, temperature and cloud cover variables [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]