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Climate change is commonly associated with many species redistributions and the influence of other factors may be marginalized, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic.The Barents Sea, a high latitude large marine ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic has experienced above‐average temperatures since the mid‐2000s with divergent bottom temperature trends at subregional scales.Concurrently, the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important commercial fish stocks in the world, increased following a large reduction in fishing pressure and expanded north of 80°N.We examined the influence of food availability and temperature on cod expansion using a comprehensive data set on cod stomach fullness stratified by subregions characterized by divergent temperature trends. We then tested whether food availability, as indexed by cod stomach fullness, played a role in cod expansion in subregions that were warming, cooling, or showed no trend.The greatest increase in cod occupancy occurred in three northern subregions with contrasting temperature trends. Cod apparently benefited from initial high food availability in these regions that previously had few large‐bodied fish predators.The stomach fullness in the northern subregions declined rapidly after a few years of high cod abundance, suggesting that the arrival of cod caused a top‐down effect on the prey base. Prolonged cod residency in the northern Barents Sea is, therefore, not a certainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the importance of physical and biological drivers in shaping biodiversity in diverse ecosystems remains a global challenge. Advancements have been made towards this end in large marine ecosystems with several studies suggesting environmental forcing as the primary driver. However, both empirical and theoretical studies point to additional drivers of changes in diversity involving trophic interactions and, in particular, predation. Moreover, a more integrated but less common approach to the assessment of biodiversity changes involves analyses of spatial β diversity, whereas most studies to date assess only changes in species richness (α diversity). Recent research has established that when cod, a dominant generalist predator, was overfished and collapsed in a northwest Atlantic food web, spatial β diversity increased; that is, the spatial structure of the fish assemblage became increasingly heterogeneous. If cod were to recover, would this situation be reversible, given the inherent complexity and non‐linear dynamics that typify such systems? A dramatic increase of cod in an ecologically similar large marine ecosystem may provide an answer. Here we show that spatial β diversity of fish assemblages in the Barents Sea decreased with increasing cod abundance, while decadal scale changes in temperature did not play a significant role. These findings indicate a reversibility of the fish assemblage structure in response to changing levels of an apex predator and highlight the frequently overlooked importance of trophic interactions in determining large‐scale biodiversity patterns. As increased cod abundance was largely driven by changes in fisheries management, our study also shows that management policies and practices, particularly those involving apex predators, can have a strong effect in shaping spatial diversity patterns, and one should not restrict the focus to effects of climate change alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early 1990s, the Northwest Atlantic Ocean underwent a fisheries-driven ecosystem shift. Today, the iconic cod ( Gadus morhua) remains at low levels, while Atlantic halibut ( Hippoglossus hippoglossus) has been increasing since the mid-2000s, concomitant with increasing interest from the fishing industry. Currently, our knowledge about halibut ecology is limited, and the lack of recovery in other collapsed groundfish populations has highlighted the danger of overfishing local concentrations. Here, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal approach to model the spatial structure of juvenile Atlantic halibut over 36 years and three fisheries management regimes using three model parameters to characterize the resulting spatiotemporal abundance structure: persistence (similarity of spatial structure over time), connectivity (coherence of temporal pattern over space), and spatial variance (variation across the seascape). Two areas of high juvenile abundance persisted through three decades whereas two in the northeast are now diminished, despite the increased abundance and landings throughout the management units. The persistent areas overlap with full and seasonal area closures, which may act as refuges from fishing. Connectivity was estimated to be 250 km, an order of magnitude less than the distance assumed by the definition of the Canadian management units (~2,000 km). The underlying question of whether there are distinct populations within the southern stock unit cannot be answered with this model, but the smaller ~250 km scale of coherent temporal patterns suggests more complex population structure than previously thought, which should be taken into consideration by fishery management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored., Populations of the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) were overfished and several collapsed in the early 1990s across Atlantic Canada, providing a unique opportunity to study potential ecosystem-level effects of the reduction of a dominant predator on fish biodiversity, and to identify how such effects might interact with other environmental factors, such as changes in climate, over time., We combined causal modelling with model selection and multimodel inference to analyse 41 years of fishery-independent survey data (1970-2010) and quantify ecosystem-level effects of overfishing and climate variation on the biodiversity of fishes across a broad area (172 000 km2) of the Scotian Shelf., We found that alpha and beta diversity increased with decreases in cod occurrence; fish communities were less homogeneous and more variable in systems where cod no longer dominated. These effects were most pronounced in the colder north-eastern parts of the Scotian Shelf., Our results provide strong evidence that intensive harvesting (and collapse) of marine apex predators can have large impacts on biodiversity, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability across an entire ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Globally, management decisions for recently established invertebrate fisheries are based on limited information. The negative consequences are being realized as now at least one-third of invertebrate fisheries are over-exploited, collapsed or closed. Management of a fishery should be based on abundance and productivity data. This information is often unavailable but in some jurisdictions, spatial distributions are known. A methodology for designating a network of reserves for sedentary invertebrates, using sea cucumber ( Cucumaria frondosa) on the Scotian Shelf, Canada is proposed, as a case study., It is assumed that there is a positive relationship between spawner density and per capita population growth rate in sedentary broadcast spawners and that fertilization success declines rapidly at low densities. Protection of high-density habitat would safeguard critical spawner density, especially when the critical density is unknown. Using spatial distribution, a method to identify size and location of reserves designed to protect high-density habitat was developed., First, geographically distinct regional-scale clusters are identified. Within clusters, the characteristic patch scale was determined through spatial autocorrelation analysis. The size of reserves can be set as 50% of each high-density patch based on an appropriate risk-averse approach., The allocation of reserve size and location is not dependent on results of a numerical circulation model. However, the analysis was refined by using one to predict larval drift patterns, and connectivity among patches. Reserve boxes were then designated to safeguard from 30 to 65% of each high-density patch., Marine reserves do not work if inappropriately sited. In the absence of any other information, it is argued that siting reserves on high-density areas is an essential and appropriate approach to data-poor invertebrate fisheries management. A high percentage of each high-density patch could serve as risk-averse 'spatial management' reference points, and could be modified once replenishment rates are known., Copyright © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on whether the spatial scale of similarity has changed due to overfishing of groundfish across the region of the Northwest Atlantic from 1970 to 2006. The study uses the vegan package to calculate the assemblage dissimilarity values among all subregions based on both species presence-absence and species relative biomass. Results show that the spatial scale of effective larval dispersal can be impacted by the cumulative effect of nonlinear maternal influences on egg.

Correlations between time series of the abundance of predator and prey fish species in heavily exploited western North Atlantic marine fisheries vary temporally but are generally positive in southern, warmer waters and negative in northern, colder ones. The correlations provide an index of trophic structure and dynamics. We construct a framework to quantify critical thresholds between states in which the predator–prey correlations are positive or negative. We do so by developing a quantitative model of the distribution of the correlations between predator (15 species) and prey (8 species) functional groups based on the annual predator depletion rates and bottom temperatures (or alternatively species richness). The model accounts for 58% of the variance of the correlations with a root mean square error of 0.3. This index of trophic structure indicates that warmer, species-rich, southern fish populations resist transformation from positive to negative predator–prey correlations at exploitation rates that can be double those in the colder, relatively species-poor, northern areas. The model can be used to set limits for exploitation rates that preserve the functional relationships between predator–prey groups in emerging fisheries, and to assess the potential for and measures required to achieve recovery of degraded fish communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poleward declines in species diversity [latitudinal diversity gradients (LDG)] remain among the oldest and most widespread of macroecological patterns. However, their contemporary dynamics remain largely unexplored even though changing ecological conditions, including global change, may modify LDG and their respective ecosystems. Here, we examine temporal variation within a temperate Northwest Atlantic LDG using 31 years of annual fisheries-independent surveys and explore its dynamics in relation to a dominant climate signal [the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] that varies interannually and alters the latitudinal gradient of Northwest Atlantic continental shelf bottom water temperatures. We found that the slopes of the annual LDG vary dramatically due to changes in geographic distributions of 100+ species, variations that are concealed within the cumulative, static LDG. These changes are strongly associated with changes in NAO sign and strength. This is the first illustration of temporal dynamics in a contemporary LDG and the first demonstration of the speed at which local environmental variations can alter an LDG. Our findings underscore the need to investigate factors that modify LDG separately from those that contribute to their origins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dependence of long-term fishery yields on primary productivity, largely based on cross-system comparisons and without reference to the potential dynamic character of this relationship, has long been considered strong evidence for bottom-up control in marine systems. We examined time series of intensive empirical observations from nine heavily exploited regions in the western North Atlantic and find evidence of spatial variance of trophic control. Top-down control dominated in northern areas, the dynamics evolved from bottom-up to top-down in an intermediate region, and bottom-up control governed the southern areas. A simplified, trophic control diagram was developed accounting for top-down and bottom-up forcing within a larger region whose base state dynamics are bottom-up and can accommodate time-varying dynamics. Species diversity and ocean temperature co-varied, being relatively high in southern areas and lower in the north, mirroring the shifting pattern of trophic control. A combination of compensatory population dynamics and accelerated demographic rates in southern areas seems to account for the greater stability of the predator species complex in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article identifies the core areas of six severely depleted marine fish species on the Scotian Shelf, Canada, using the theory of ideal free distribution (IFD). Many marine fish species have declined throughout the world due to overfishing, and the Scotian Shelf off eastern Canada is no exception. IFD theory had proved popular because of its efficient logic and has been developed as an evolutionarily stable strategy. The researchers tested for density-dependent distribution on both regional and local scales. At the regional scale, a density-dependent response was observed in the majority of populations. At the local scale, density was expected to remain stable in areas of high density and to change more rapidly in marginal areas, in response to changes in regional abundance. Lower local density responses were associated with areas of higher density, but deviations were evident, in part due to the magnitude of decline and in part due to fishing effects. Former areas of high density can be eroded if the population has severely declined. Fishing directed at an area of high density can cause local depletion when recolonization rates are low relative to the intensity of fishing. Thus, areas occupied during periods of low regional abundance do not of necessity reflect the historical array of core areas.

The Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) longline fishery is the second most valuable groundfish fishery in Atlantic Canada and received Marine Stewardship Council certification in 2013. The bottom longline fishery accounts for most halibut landings but incidentally catches nontargeted species (bycatch). Since 1998, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the halibut fishing industry performed annual longline surveys across the Scotian Shelf and Southern Grand Banks stock management area to monitor halibut abundance, and at‐sea observers also recorded bycatch information. We examined the species composition and proportion of the survey bycatch and analyzed temporal and spatial trends in standardized weight of (a) halibut catch, (b) total bycatch, and (c) bycatch of species of conservation concern. From 1998 to 2016, 70% of the total catch by weight and 85% by number of individuals were bycatch. Over 100 identified species of finfish, sharks, skates, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals, and seabirds were caught as bycatch in the survey. This included four species listed under the Species at Risk Act (Northern wolffish, Anarhichas denticulatus; spotted wolffish, A. minor; Atlantic wolffish, A. lupus; Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua), and another 14 species awaiting a listing decision based on assessments by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Generally, the standardized weight of halibut and barndoor skate (Dipturus laevis) increased over time, while Atlantic cod, spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias), white hake (Urophycis tenuis), and thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) decreased. Spatial patterns indicated high bycatch levels on the southern Scotian Shelf and southern edge of the Southern Grand Banks, with hotspots for certain species of conservation concern. Our results identify temporal trends in threatened species and areas where they are susceptible to the Atlantic halibut longline fishery which can inform recovery strategies, bycatch levels and spatial zoning in fisheries management and marine conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]