1. Time to generalization and prediction of survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a retrospective observational study.
- Author
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Tortelli, R., Copetti, M., Panza, F., Fontana, A., Cortese, R., Capozzo, R., Introna, A., D'Errico, E., Zoccolella, S., Arcuti, S., Seripa, D., Simone, I. L., and Logroscino, G.
- Subjects
SURVIVAL ,AMYOTROPHIC lateral sclerosis ,TRACHEOTOMY ,CLINICAL trials ,DEATH ,PATIENTS - Abstract
Background and purpose A strong association between time to generalization ( TTG), considered as the time of spreading of the clinical signs from spinal or bulbar localization to both, and survival was recently identified in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis ( ALS). Thus, TTG may be used as an early to intermediate end-point in survival studies. The aim of the present study was to test TTG as a predictor of survival in ALS. Methods This was an observational retrospective study of ALS patients from a tertiary referral centre over a 5-year follow-up period. Results In 212 ALS patients, TTG was associated with time to death/tracheostomy [R 0.62, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.53-0.70; P < 0.001]. In a time-to-event analysis, longer TTG resulted in lower risk to reach a composite outcome (death or tracheostomy) both in univariate [hazard ratio ( HR) 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99] and multivariate Cox analyses ( HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.99). TTG predicted death/tracheostomy at 4 years ( C-statistic 0.58; 95% CI 0.53-0.63) and at 5 years ( C-statistic 0.58; 95% CI 0.53-0.62). Conclusions Based on the present results from a large clinical cohort, TTG may be used as a new early to intermediate end-point to describe the ALS natural history. TTG may be potentially useful as a new primary outcome measure for clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
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