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Sapropels are dark, organic‐rich layers found in Mediterranean sediments that formed during periods of bottom water anoxia. While various mechanisms have been proposed to have caused anoxic conditions, a primary factor is considered to be water column stratification induced by freshwater runoff related to intensified North African monsoon precipitation during precession minima. Monsoon intensification also induced Green Sahara Periods that may have impacted North African hominin dispersal. In this study, we present a novel regression‐based deconvolution of a high‐resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope record to estimate the combination of freshwater runoff reaching the eastern Mediterranean and associated surface warming of the water column over the past 5 million years. Sapropels are known to occur in clusters associated with periods of high orbital eccentricity. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of orbital eccentricity in modulating the North African monsoon, and a possible shift in runoff source area induced by the initiation of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Our findings provide important insights into the role of the North African monsoon in shaping Mediterranean environmental changes over the past 5 million years. Plain Language Summary: We investigate long‐term changes in monsoon rains over North Africa, which annually result in freshwater flowing into the Mediterranean Sea. Over geological time, Earth's orbital variations have played a significant role in shaping the monsoon and, consequently, the quantity of freshwater entering the Mediterranean. Foraminifera, small marine organisms, record the oxygen isotope composition of their environment in their shells. Notably, the oxygen isotope balance in North African monsoon rains and the Mediterranean Sea differ, but eventually mix upon the freshwater entering into the Mediterranean. Our research combines a statistical analysis of oxygen isotope data preserved in foraminifera shells with a numerical model of the Mediterranean Sea, enabling us to estimate changes in monsoon freshwater input into the Mediterranean over the past 5 million years. This information not only enhances our understanding of monsoon evolution but also provides insights into the potential for hominin migrations in a more lush North African landscape characterized by higher rainfall than today. Key Points: We present quantitative estimates of Plio‐Pleistocene North African monsoon activity based on deconvolution of planktonic foraminiferal δ18OThrough the past 5 million years estimated monsoon activity is consistent with the expected pattern of orbital eccentricity modulationApparent monsoon strengthening at ∼2.6 Ma may be due to shifting runoff sources induced by Northern Hemisphere ice sheet initiation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea level response to AIS change requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems and across time scales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short time scales (days to decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer time scales (decades to millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present and consider the projections of global sea level rise and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is an important component of the global climate system. Human activities have caused the atmosphere and especially the oceans to warm. However, the full effect of human caused climate change on the AIS has not currently been realized because the ice sheet responds on a range of time scales and to many different Earth processes. Modern observations show that West Antarctica has been melting at an accelerating rate since the 2000s, while the data for East Antarctica are less clear. Environmental records preserve the history of the climate and AIS, which extend beyond the instrumental record and reveal how the AIS responded to past climate warming. Estimates of how much the AIS will contribute to sea level rise by the Year 2100 have changed as a result of new information on how the AIS evolved in the past and research into the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth atmosphere, and ocean systems. This review brings together our knowledge of the major processes and feedbacks affecting the AIS and the evidence for how the ice sheet changed since the Pliocene. We consider the future estimates and consequences of global sea level rise from melting of the AIS and highlight priority research areas.Key Points: The AIS is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system, evolving on a broad range of temporal and spatial scalesPaleoenvironmental evidence highlights the centennial to millennial response time scales of the AIS to atmospheric‐ocean forcingCoupling feedbacks in Earth system components are required to reduce the uncertainty in AIS's contribution to past and future sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes. Plain Language Summary Earth's global "climate sensitivity" is a fundamental quantitative measure of the susceptibility of Earth's climate to human influence. A landmark report in 1979 concluded that it probably lies between 1.5°C and 4.5°C per doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, assuming that other influences on climate remain unchanged. In the 40 years since, it has appeared difficult to reduce this uncertainty range. In this report we thoroughly assess all lines of evidence including some new developments. We find that a large volume of consistent evidence now points to a more confident view of a climate sensitivity near the middle or upper part of this range. In particular, it now appears extremely unlikely that the climate sensitivity could be low enough to avoid substantial climate change (well in excess of 2°C warming) under a high-emission future scenario. We remain unable to rule out that the sensitivity could be above 4.5°C per doubling of carbon dioxide levels, although this is not likely. Continued research is needed to further reduce the uncertainty, and we identify some of the more promising possibilities in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]