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The International Society for Animal Genetics (ISAG) currently advocates for a transition towards single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers as a potential alternative for equine parentage verification. To ascertain the efficacy of this transition, it is imperative to evaluate the performance of parentage testing using SNPs in juxtaposition with short tandem repeats (STRs). As per ISAG's recommendation, we used an equine genotyping‐by‐sequencing panel with 144 SNPs for this purpose. Equine parentage is currently realized using 16 microsatellites (STRs) excluding the LEX3 marker. In this study, 1074 horses were genotyped using the 144 SNPs panel, including 432 foals, 414 mares, and 228 stallions, from five different breeds: 293 Arabians, 167 Barbs, 189 Thoroughbreds, 73 Anglo‐Arabians, and 352 Arabian‐Barbs. As a result, two SNPs markers were eliminated from the panel system due to inconsistent amplification across all examined individuals leaving 142 SNPs markers for analysis. A comparative analysis between SNPs and STRs markers revealed that the mean expected heterozygosity was 0.457 for SNPs and 0.76 for STRs, while the mean observed heterozygosity stood at 0.472 for SNPs and 0.72 for STRs. Furthermore, the probability of identity was calculated to be 5.722 × 10−57 for SNPs and 1.25 × 10−15 for STRs markers. In alignment with the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium in polyploids test, 110 out of the total SNPs were consistent with the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium in polyploids test (p > 0.05). Employing both SNPs and STRs markers, the mean polymorphic information content was discerned to be 0.351 for SNPs and 0.72 for STRs. The cumulative exclusion probabilities for SNP markers exceeded 99.99%, indicating that the 142 SNPs panel might be adequate for parentage testing. In contrast, when utilizing STRs markers, the combined average exclusion probabilities for one and both parents were determined to be 99.8% and 99.9%, respectively. Our comprehensive study underscores the potential of SNPs in equine parentage verification, especially when compared to STRs in terms of exclusion probabilities. As a corollary, the application of SNPs for parentage verification and identification can significantly contribute to the conservation initiative for the five Moroccan horse breeds. Nonetheless, further research is required to address and replace the deficient SNPs within the panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with the passage of the African Easterly Wave (AEW) during the period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied to verify how well the models predict the high‐impact event and to demonstrate how these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a convective scale from UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and a one‐way nested weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were compared with the integrated multisatellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG GPM). The purpose is to examine skills of improved model resolution and ensemble in reproducing rainfall forecasts on useful scales and how the skill varies with spatial scale. WRF 2 and 6 km model forecasts show comparable skill at smaller grid scales. The skill of MetUM improves dramatically when the verification statistics are applied to the ensemble mean of the binary fields of the individual member forecast. The object‐based analysis reveals a similar structure as observed, although displaced eastwards. Most improvement occurred for heavier rainfall events associated with the passage of the AEW. WRF 6 km compares reasonably well with WRF 2 km in terms of shape and structure of rainfall underscoring the ability of the model to reasonably represent convection at 6 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble members in MetUM explicitly reproduce convection at 4 km resolution but are displaced at about 166 km behind observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. Plain Language Summary: Here, we provide the first global examination of recent changes in the size, frequency, and probability of extreme river floods using historical river records. Since the 1970s, the 20‐year and 50‐year extreme river floods have mostly increased in temperate zones but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, the 100‐year floods have decreased in arid and temperate zones, and show mixed results in cold zones, but at a smaller sample of sites with long records. Descriptions of changes in extreme flooding depend largely on site selection, and are constrained by availability of long‐term data. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of regularly updating flood hazard assessments under nonstationarity. Key Points: We provide the first global nonstationary assessment of changes in the magnitude, return period, and probability of observed extreme floodsWe find increasing 20‐year and 50‐year floods in temperate climate zones but mostly decreases in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zonesFor the 100‐year floods, at a smaller sample of sites, we find decreases in arid and temperate zones and mixed results elsewhere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to grow significantly, which calls for effective planning of charging infrastructures. While the planning of the charging infrastructure relies on an accurate charging demands, the behaviours of EVs charging are not always predictable and can be sensitive to many uncertain future environmental factors. Considering such uncertainties, this study aims to robustly and optimally determine the chargers and main switch board (MSB) capacities without violating queuing time constraints and load flow constraints. The non-parametric estimations of charging demands are derived with data-driven charging behaviour analysis considering diverse social factors, including travelling patterns, queuing, and changes of charging facilities. Then, the impacts of the EV integration are modeled by a stochastic load flow program. The samples of the stochastic load flow stipulate the conditional value-at-risk constraints for the planning of chargers and MSBs, which consider the probabilities and scenarios in a box of ambiguity with bounds. Afterwards, by limiting the frequency and severity of constraints violation, the total investment cost is minimized with a distributionally robust optimisation program. Simulation based on a real-world residential community in Singapore is carried out to testify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decisions concerning proof of facts in criminal law must be rational because of what is at stake, but the decision‐making process must also be cognitively feasible because of cognitive limitations, and it must obey the relevant legal–procedural constraints. In this topic three approaches to rational reasoning about evidence in criminal law are compared in light of these demands: arguments, probabilities, and scenarios. This is done in six case studies in which different authors analyze a manslaughter case from different theoretical perspectives, plus four commentaries on these case studies. The aim of this topic is to obtain more insight into how the different approaches can be applied in a legal context. This will advance the discussion on rational reasoning about evidence in law and will contribute more widely to cognitive science on a number of topics, including the value of probabilistic accounts of cognition and the problem of dealing with cognitive biases in reasoning under uncertainty in practical contexts. In criminal law, decision‐making concerning proof of facts must not only be rational but also cognitively feasible, and must obey legal‐procedural constraints. This topic compares three approaches focusing respectively on arguments, probabilities and scenarios, in light of these demands. It contains six case studies in which the same manslaughter case is analyzed from these different perspectives. Prakken et al. introduce the topic and the case studies, and give an overview of the literature on theories of rational legal proof. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Sex is usually not estimated in skeletonized non‐adult individuals because sexual dimorphism is considered minimal before puberty. In 2017, a new approach based on the shape of the auricular surface was proposed, showing that this anatomic area of the ilium is dimorphic. This study tests the reproducibility and evaluates the accuracy of the method in a bigger sample. Materials and Methods: Thirty males and 31 females from the Lisbon Collection (1 day–18 years old) were analyzed by two researchers, one experienced, and the other without previous knowledge of the method. The sample was divided into three groups according to prepubertal and pubertal hormonal peaks (<2, 0–12, and 13–18 years old). Two metric variables (DE/AD and FI/CF ratios), two morphological features (Overall Morphology, OM and Morphology of the Retroauricular End of the Superior Demiface, MRS), and two formulae were tested based on the adequate results obtained in the original article. Results: Data shows a low interobserver error (ICC > 0.92; K > 0.74). Morphological features provide better results than the metrics (DE/AD = 77.05%; FI/CF = 73.77%; OM = 80.33%; MRS = 85.24%). The discriminant function correctly classified 86.66% of the males and the logistic regression, 83.33%. The method was equally reliable in 0–12 and 13–18 years‐old age groups and more accurate in males. The accuracy of most of the variables reached 100% for males under 2 years‐old, and the probabilities were higher than for older individuals. The percentages of correct estimations are not influenced by the age, year, and cause of death. Discussion: Despite the relatively small sample size, this study confirms the usefulness of the auricular surface for non‐adult sexual estimation, especially for those younger than 2 years old. Additional validation tests in documented individuals from other geographic regions are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: What is the relation between factual conditionals: If A happened then B happened, and counterfactual conditionals: If A had happened then B would have happened? Some theorists propose quite different semantics for the two. In contrast, the theory of mental models and its computer implementation interrelates them. It postulates that both can have a priori truth values, and that the semantic bases of both are possibilities: states that are possible for factual conditionals, and that were once possible but that did not happen for counterfactual conditionals. Two experiments supported these relations. Experiment 1 showed that, like factual conditionals, certain counterfactuals are true a priori, and others are false a priori. Experiment 2 replicated this result and showed that participants selected appropriate paraphrases, referring, respectively, to real and to counterfactual possibilities, for the two sorts of conditional. These results are contrary to alternative accounts of conditionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Probability and chance are essential concepts, not just in statistics but in real life. We present an adaptable activity which investigates what we mean by bias, how we can identify bias, and how we can use it to our advantage! [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real-world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent. Conclusions Based on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences of the near-surface wind speed ( SWS) between the frictional wind model ( FWM) and the observation are used to reflect the impacts of land use and cover change ( LUCC) on SWS in Eastern China Plain ( ECP). Results show that LUCC makes the range of SWS narrow, which had significantly weakening effect to stronger wind than weaker wind. In addition, the decrease of probabilities for observed gentle breeze ( GB), moderate breeze ( MB), and wind speed greater than or equal to 8 m s−1 ( WSGE8) are more significant in large cities than that in small cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study assesses the medium-range probabilistic forecast issued using an improved version of the Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). This version includes improvements made to the method used to select the fastest growing modes (the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF)-based method), and the bias correction. Results demonstrate that this improved CPTEC EPS surpasses the skills of the current operational version. An assessment was conducted using the framework of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), comparing three configurations of the CPTEC EPS to the EPS from the National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and the Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA). The score adopted for metrics was the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), calculated for absolute temperature at the 850 hPa level (T850), and sea level pressure (SLP). The best improvements were found for T850 over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with a general increase of 9 days in the useful forecast horizon. SLP augments are more modest, with useful performance extension of 2 days in the Northern Hemisphere and 3 days in the Southern Hemisphere. All the EPSs over the Southern Hemisphere showed a general decrease in performance when compared with their respective counterparts in the Northern Hemisphere, both for T850 and SLP. Over the Tropics, SLP is better predicted than T850 by most EPSs, but the NCEP EPS presents the best performance over this region with similar scores for the two variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Performance of all- India summer monsoon rainfall ( June to September) has been studied when June or July or June + July rainfall is reported as being in excess/deficit, using monthly and seasonal rainfall data for the period 1871-2010. The study shows that seasonal rainfall was above/below the long term mean in almost all the years when rainfall of June or July or June + July was in excess/deficit. The probabilities of occurrence of seasonal rainfall below the long term mean are 77, 83, and 92% respectively when June, July, and June + July rainfalls are in deficit. The years in which the rainfalls of June and July were deficit, were mostly El Niño years and their corresponding seasonal rainfalls were below the mean. The deficiencies in June/ July or June + July rainfall during El Niño years thus give an indication of seasonal rainfall being below the mean, and vice versa for La Niña years. The study has brought out an important result that rainfall during June gives a first signal of the performance of seasonal rainfall. In order to explain the relationship between June excess/deficit rainfall and seasonal above/below mean rainfall, an hypothesis is proposed which states that the circulation anomalies developed over the Indian region during an excess/deficit June persist throughout the season. The hypothesis has been proved by examining the composites of excess/deficit June wind anomalies at 850 and 200 hPa and observing their subsequent persistence from July to September. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitation averaged over three regions of the southern part of the La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices: two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil, while the third region, surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37 ° S and 32 ° S. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation ( MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability is even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitation that lead to monthly accumulated extremes. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the impact of climate changes on extreme seasonal precipitation in Great Britain. It has been proven that enhanced greenhouse conditions attributed to climatic and hydrologic extremes have largest impact on the biodiversity. Increased precipitation and enhanced variability offer the people a hard time coping with its changing intensity and occurrences. Results of the assessment of global and regional climate model simulations and future projections of extreme precipitation show that the trend is primarily dependent on climate changes.

The accumulated published database of stable lead isotope analyses of ore and slag specimens taken from Anatolian mining sites that parallel the Black Sea coast has been augmented with 22 additional analyses of such specimens carried out at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Multivariate statistical analysis has been used to divide this composite database into five separate ore source groups. Evidence that most of these ore sources were exploited for the production of metal artefacts during the Bronze Age and Phrygian Period has been obtained by statistically comparing to them the isotope ratios of 184 analysed artefacts from nine archaeological sites situated within a few hundred kilometres of these mining sites. Also, Appendix B contains 36 new isotope analyses of ore specimens from Central Taurus mining sites that are compatible with and augment the four Central Taurus Ore Source Groups defined in Yener et al. (1991). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]