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Consider the choice of outcome for overall treatment benefit in a clinical trial which measures the first time to each of several clinical events. We describe several new variants of the win ratio that incorporate the time spent in each clinical state over the common follow‐up, where clinical state means the worst clinical event that has occurred by that time. One version allows restriction so that death during follow‐up is most important, while time spent in other clinical states is still accounted for. Three other variants are described; one is based on the average pairwise win time, one creates a continuous outcome for each participant based on expected win times against a reference distribution and another that uses the estimated distributions of clinical state to compare the treatment arms. Finally, a combination testing approach is described to give robust power for detecting treatment benefit across a broad range of alternatives. These new methods are designed to be closer to the overall treatment benefit/harm from a patient's perspective, compared to the ordinary win ratio. The new methods are compared to the composite event approach and the ordinary win ratio. Simulations show that when overall treatment benefit on death is substantial, the variants based on either the participants' expected win times (EWTs) against a reference distribution or estimated clinical state distributions have substantially higher power than either the pairwise comparison or composite event methods. The methods are illustrated by re‐analysis of the trial heart failure: a controlled trial investigating outcomes of exercise training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a novel iterative Bragg peak removal with automatic intensity correction (IBR-AIC) methodology for X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), specifically addressing the challenge of Bragg peak interference in the analysis of crystalline materials. The approach integrates experimental adjustments and sophisticated post-processing, including an iterative algorithm for robust calculation of the scaling factor of the absorption coefficients and efficient elimination of the Bragg peaks, a common obstacle in accurately interpreting XAS data, particularly in crystalline samples. The method was thoroughly evaluated on dilute catalysts and thin films, with fluorescence mode and large-angle rotation. The results underscore the technique's effectiveness, adaptability and substantial potential in improving the precision of XAS data analysis. While demonstrating significant promise, the method does have limitations related to signal-to-noise ratio sensitivity and the necessity for meticulous angle selection during experimentation. Overall, IBR-AIC represents a significant advancement in XAS, offering a pragmatic solution to Bragg peak contamination challenges, thereby expanding the applications of XAS in understanding complex materials under diverse experimental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: In VICTORIA, vericiguat compared with placebo reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) and heart failure hospitalization (HFH) in patients enrolled after a worsening heart failure (WHF) event. We examined clinical outcomes and efficacy of vericiguat as it relates to background use of loop diuretics in patients with WHF. Methods and results: We calculated the total daily loop diuretic dose equivalent to furosemide dosing at randomization and categorized these as: no loop diuretic, 1–39, 41–80, 40, and >80 mg total daily dose (TDD). The primary composite outcome of CVD/HFH and its components were evaluated based on TDD loop diuretic and expressed as adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Post‐randomization rates of change in TDD were also examined. Of 4974 patients (98% of the trial) with diuretic dose information available at randomization, 540 (10.8%) were on no loop diuretic, 647 (13.0%) were on 1–39, 1633 (32.8%) were on 40, 1185 (23.8%) were on 41–80, and 969 (19.4%) were on >80 mg TDD. Patients with higher TDD had a higher rate of primary and secondary clinical outcomes. There were no significant interactions with TDD at randomization and efficacy of vericiguat versus placebo for any outcome (all pinteraction > 0.5). Post‐randomization diuretic dose changes for vericiguat and placebo showed similar rates of up‐titration (19.6 and 20.2/100 person‐years), down‐titration (16.8 and 18.1/100 person‐years), and stopping diuretics (22.9 and 24.2/100 person‐years). Conclusions: Loop diuretic TDD at randomization was independently associated with worse outcomes in this high‐risk population. The efficacy of vericiguat was consistent across the range of diuretic doses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To investigate the effects of Cimlanod, a nitroxyl donor with vasodilator properties, on water and salt excretion after an administration of an intravenos bolus of furosemide. Methods and results: In this randomized, double‐blind, mechanistic, crossover trial, 21 patients with left ventricular ejection fraction <45%, increased plasma concentrations of N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) and receiving loop diuretics were given, on separate study days, either an 8 h intravenous (IV) infusion of cimlanod (12 μg/kg/min) or placebo. Furosemide was given as a 40 mg IV bolus four hours after the start of infusion. The primary endpoint was urine volume in the 4 h after the bolus of furosemide during infusion of cimlanod compared with placebo. Median NT‐proBNP at baseline was 1487 (interquartile range: 847–2665) ng/L. Infusion of cimlanod increased cardiac output and reduced blood pressure without affecting cardiac power index consistent with its vasodilator effects. Urine volume in the 4 h post‐furosemide was lower with cimlanod (1032 ± 393 ml) versus placebo (1481 ± 560 ml) (p = 0.002), as were total sodium excretion (p = 0.004), fractional sodium excretion (p = 0.016), systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.012), and haemoglobin (p = 0.010), an index of plasma volume expansion. Conclusions: For patients with heart failure and congestion, vasodilatation with agents such as cimlanod reduces the response to diuretic agents, which may offset any benefit from acute reductions in cardiac preload and afterload. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Whether electrocardiographic (ECG) measurements predict mortality in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is unknown. Methods and results: We studied 4880 patients from the Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) trial with a baseline 12‐lead ECG. Associations between ECG measurements and mortality were estimated as hazard ratios (HR) and adjusted for the Meta‐Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score, N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide, and index event. Select interactions between ECG measurements, patient characteristics and mortality were examined. Over a median of 10.8 months, there were 824 cardiovascular (CV) deaths (214 sudden) and 1005 all‐cause deaths. Median age was 68 years (interquartile range [IQR] 60–76), 24% were women, median ejection fraction was 30% (IQR 23–35), 41% had New York Heart Association class III/IV, and median MAGGIC score was 24 (IQR 19–28). After multivariable adjustment, significant associations existed between heart rate (per 5 bpm: HR 1.02), QRS duration (per 10 ms: HR 1.02), absence of left ventricular hypertrophy (HR 0.64) and CV death, and similarly so with all‐cause death (HR 1.02; HR 1.02; HR 0.61, respectively). Contiguous pathologic Q waves were significantly associated with sudden death (HR 1.46), and right ventricular hypertrophy with all‐cause death (HR 1.44). The only sex‐based interaction observed was for pathologic Q waves on CV (men: HR 1.05; women: HR 1.64, pinteraction = 0.024) and all‐cause death (men: HR 0.99; women: HR 1.57; pinteraction = 0.010). Whereas sudden death doubled in females, it did not differ among males (male: HR 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–1.79; female: HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.23–5.06; pinteraction = 0.141). Conclusion: Routine ECG measurements provide additional prognostication of mortality in high‐risk HFrEF patients, particularly in women with contiguous pathologic Q waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Vericiguat significantly reduced the primary composite outcome of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death in the VICTORIA trial. It is unknown if these outcome benefits are related to reverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling with vericiguat in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of vericiguat versus placebo on LV structure and function after 8 months of therapy in patients with HFrEF. Methods and results: Standardized transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) was performed at baseline and after 8 months of therapy in a subset of HFrEF patients in VICTORIA. The co‐primary endpoints were changes in LV end‐systolic volume index (LVESVI) and LV ejection fraction (LVEF). Quality assurance and central reading were performed by an echocardiographic core laboratory blinded to treatment assignment. A total of 419 patients (208 vericiguat, 211 placebo) with high‐quality paired TTE at baseline and 8 months were included. Baseline clinical characteristics were well balanced between treatment groups and echocardiographic characteristics were representative of patients with HFrEF. LVESVI significantly declined (60.7 ± 26.8 to 56.8 ± 30.4 ml/m2; p < 0.01) and LVEF significantly increased (33.0 ± 9.4% to 36.1 ± 10.2%; p < 0.01) in the vericiguat group, but similarly in the placebo group (absolute changes for vericiguat vs. placebo: LVESVI −3.8 ± 15.4 vs. −7.1 ± 20.5 ml/m2; p = 0.07 and LVEF +3.2 ± 8.0% vs. +2.4 ± 7.6%; p = 0.31). The absolute rate per 100 patient‐years of the primary composite endpoint at 8 months tended to be lower in the vericiguat group (19.8) than the placebo group (29.6) (p = 0.07). Conclusions: In this pre‐specified echocardiographic study, significant improvements in LV structure and function occurred over 8 months in both vericiguat and placebo in a high‐risk HFrEF population with recent worsening HF. Further studies are warranted to define the mechanisms of vericiguat's benefit in HFrEF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have a high residual risk of adverse outcomes, even when treated with optimal guideline‐directed medical therapy and in a clinically stable state. Soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) stimulators have the potential to lower this risk by modifying the nitric oxide–sGC–cyclic guanosine monophosphate cascade – a pathophysiological pathway that has been targeted with limited success in HFrEF previously. Vericiguat, an sGC stimulator, was shown to improve outcomes in patients with HFrEF in the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial. However, this trial included patients with recently worsening disease. In this brief review, we discuss the rationale of evaluating sGC stimulators in lower‐risk HFrEF patients. First, all key HFrEF medications have been evaluated in both higher‐ and lower‐risk populations, and the treatment effect is not always consistent across the risk spectrum. Second, pre‐clinical studies and post‐hoc studies of the VICTORIA trial have suggested that sGC stimulators may have cardioprotective effects – these effects may be more apparent when the medication is initiated earlier in the disease process. Third, the effect of vericiguat on cardiovascular mortality remains uncertain and a trial with a longer follow‐up in a lower‐risk population may allow better assessment of its effect on cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, there is a pertinent need to investigate the effects of vericiguat in optimally treated, low‐risk HFrEF patients (i.e. those without recently worsening heart failure). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We assessed a subset of the 5040 patients in VICTORIA receiving sacubitril/valsartan, either at randomization (n = 731) or post-randomization drop-in use (n = 425), to evaluate the relationship between the efficacy and safety of combination therapy with vericiguat.Methods and Results: The efficacy of vericiguat on the primary composite endpoint, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and all-cause mortality was assessed. Safety outcomes included symptomatic hypotension, syncope, worsening renal function, and hyperkalaemia. At randomization, 731 patients received sacubitril/valsartan; they were more frequently from Western Europe or North America, had lower ejection fraction and systolic blood pressure, and more use of triple background HF therapy (65.9% vs. 58.6%), biventricular pacemakers (17.9% vs. 14.1%), or implantable cardioverter defibrillators (42.3% vs. 25.3%). For patients on versus not on sacubitril/valsartan at randomization, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for vericiguat's treatment effect on the primary composite outcome, cardiovascular death, and HF hospitalization were 0.92 (0.71-1.19) versus 0.89 (0.80-0.98), 0.71 (0.45-1.12) versus 0.95 (0.82-1.11), and 0.98 (0.74-1.29) versus 0.87 (0.78-0.98), respectively. No significant interaction existed between sacubitril/valsartan and vericiguat's treatment effect (p-values for interaction: 0.81, 0.23 and 0.47, respectively). Post-randomization, more drop-in sacubitril/valsartan use occurred in those assigned to placebo (n = 238) versus vericiguat (n = 187) (p = 0.007). Symptomatic hypotension (21.0% vs. 23.1%; p = 0.41), renal dysfunction (29.9% vs. 31.9%; p = 0.50), and hyperkalaemia (10.3% vs. 7.9%; p = 0.20) in patients receiving sacubitril/valsartan (n = 992) for ≥3 months were not different by treatment arm.Conclusions: Concomitant use of sacubitril/valsartan for at least 3 months did not alter the efficacy of vericiguat and was similarly safe and tolerated in both study arms. Sacubitril/valsartan was initiated more frequently after randomization in patients assigned to placebo versus vericiguat.Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02861534. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Coronary artery disease (CAD) portends worse outcomes in heart failure (HF). We aimed to characterize patients with CAD and worsening HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and evaluate post hoc whether vericiguat treatment effect varied according to CAD. Methods and results: Cox proportional hazards were generated for the primary endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (CVD/HFH). CAD was defined as previous myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, or coronary artery bypass grafting. Of 5048 patients in VICTORIA with available data on CAD status, 2704 had CAD and were older, were more frequently male, diabetic, and had a lower glomerular filtration rate than those without CAD (all p <0.0001). Use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) was higher in patients with versus without CAD (33.5% vs. 21.1%; p <0.0001 and 16.3% vs. 12.8%; p = 0.0006). The primary endpoint of CVD/HFH was higher in those with versus without CAD (40.6 vs. 30.1/100 patient‐years; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.23; p <0.001) as was all‐cause mortality (17.9% vs. 12.7%; adjusted HR 1.32; p <0.001). The primary outcome of CVD/HFH associated with vericiguat in patients with or without CAD was 38.8 versus 27.6 per 100 patient‐years and for placebo was 42.6 versus 32.7 per 100 patient‐years (interaction p = 0.78). Conclusion: In this post hoc study, CAD was associated with more CVD and HFH in patients with HFrEF and worsening HF. Vericiguat was beneficial and safe regardless of concomitant CAD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Loop diuretics are commonly used for patients with heart failure (HF) but it remains unknown if one loop diuretic is clinically superior. Hypothesis: Biomarkers and proteomics provide insight to how different loop diuretics may differentially affect outcomes. Methods: Blood and urine were collected from outpatients with HF who were taking torsemide or furosemide for >30 days. Differences were assessed in cardiac, renal, and inflammatory biomarkers and soluble protein panels using the Olink Cardiovascular III and inflammation panels. Results: Of 78 subjects, 55 (71%) were treated with furosemide and 23 (29%) with torsemide, and 25 provided a urine sample (15 treated with furosemide, 10 with torsemide). Patients taking torsemide were older (68 vs 64 years) with a lower mean eGFR (46 vs 54 ml/min/1.73 m2), a higher proportion were women (39% vs 24%) and Black (43% vs 27%). In plasma, levels of hs‐cTnT, NT‐proBNP, and hsCRP were not significantly different between groups. In urine, there were significant differences in urinary albumin, β‐2M, and NGAL, with higher levels in the torsemide‐treated patients. Of 184 proteins testing in Olink panels, in plasma, 156 (85%) were higher in patients taking torsemide but none were significantly different after correcting for false discovery. Conclusions: We show differences in urinary biomarkers but few differences in plasma biomarkers among HF patients on different loop diuretics. Olink technology can detect differences in plasma protein levels from multiple biologic domains. These findings raise the importance of defining differences in mechanisms of action of each diuretic in an appropriately powered study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: N‐terminal pro‐b‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) values may be influenced by patient factors beyond the severity of illness, including atrial fibrillation (AF), renal dysfunction, or increased body mass index (BMI). We hypothesized that these factors may influence the achievement of NT‐proBNP targets and clinical outcomes. Methods: A total of 894 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction were enrolled in The Guiding Evidence‐Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment trial. NT‐proBNP was analysed every 3 months. Results: Forty per cent of patients had AF, the median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 [interquartile range (IQR) 43–76], and median BMI was 29 kg/m2 (IQR 25–34). Patients with AF, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, or a BMI < 29 kg/m2 had a higher level of NT‐proBNP at randomization and over all study visits (all P values < 0.001). Over 18 months, the rate of change of NT‐proBNP was less for patients with AF (compared with those without AF, P = 0.037) and patients with an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (compared with eGFR > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, P < 0.001). The rate of change of NT‐proBNP was similar for patients with a BMI above or below the median value. Using the 90 day NT‐proBNP, patients with AF, lower eGFR, or lower BMI were less likely to achieve the target NT‐proBNP < 1000 pg/mL than patients without AF, higher eGFR, or higher BMI, respectively. None of these differed between the Usual Care or Guided Care arm for AF, eGFR, or BMI (Pinteractions all NS). Conclusions: Patients with AF, a lower BMI, or worse renal function are less likely to achieve a lower or target NT‐proBNP. Clinicians should be aware of these factors both when interpreting NT‐proBNP levels and making therapeutic decisions about heart failure therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between crime and the rapid growth and industrialization associated with resource‐based booms in large boomtowns is well‐documented. This study focuses on changes in police‐reported crime and perceptions of crime and disorder in a region experiencing a mini‐boom after the boom subsides. Analyses of survey results of 1,336 respondents living in oil‐impacted and non‐impacted communities in southeastern Saskatchewan reveal several noteworthy differences between these two groups. Inconsistent with prior research, respondents in the oil‐impacted region were less fearful of being victimized than their counterparts in non‐impacted communities and did not believe that a lack of law enforcement was a problem. Our analyses also revealed that the economic downturn after oil prices and production plunged was associated with significant decreases in rates of reported crime, crime severity, and traffic collisions. Implications for establishing a more comprehensive theory of the boom‐crime relationship and future research are discussed. Key Messages: Respondents reported that oil extraction was good for their community and they believed their communities could manage the boom.Respondents in oil‐impacted communities generally had equivalent or more favourable perceptions of police effectiveness than residents of non‐impacted communities.Respondents in the oil‐impacted jurisdictions expressed less fear of crime than those from the non‐impacted communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: We evaluated the relation between baseline and new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and outcomes, and assessed whether vericiguat modified the likelihood of new‐onset AF in patients with worsening heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction in VICTORIA. Methods and results: Of 5050 patients randomized, 5010 with recorded AF status at baseline were analysed. Patients were classified into three groups: no known AF (n = 2661, 53%), history of AF alone (n = 992, 20%), and AF on randomization electrocardiogram (n = 1357, 27%). Compared with those with no AF, those with history of AF alone had a higher risk of cardiovascular death [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.47] without excess myocardial infarction or stroke; neither type of AF was associated with a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (time to cardiovascular death or first HF hospitalization), HF hospitalizations, or all cause‐death. The beneficial effect of vericiguat on the primary composite outcome and its components was evident irrespective of AF status at baseline. Over a median follow‐up of 10.8 months, new‐onset AF occurred in 6.1% of those with no AF and 18.3% with history of AF alone (P < 0.0001). These events were not influenced by vericiguat treatment (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.75–1.16; P = 0.51), but were associated with an increase in the hazard of both primary and secondary outcomes. Conclusions: Atrial fibrillation was present in nearly half of this high‐risk population with worsening HF. A history of AF alone at baseline portends an increased risk of cardiovascular death. Neither type of AF affected the beneficial effect of vericiguat. Development of AF post‐randomization was associated with an increase in both cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization which was not influenced by vericiguat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Vericiguat reduced the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization in patients with worsening HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and a lower limit of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 15 mL/min/1.73 m2. We evaluated the relationship between the efficacy of vericiguat and baseline and subsequent changes in renal function. Methods and results: In VICTORIA, core laboratory serum creatinine was measured at baseline (n = 4956) and weeks 16, 32, and 48. Worsening renal function (WRF), defined as an increase ≥0.3 mg/dL in creatinine from baseline to week 16, was assessed via a Cox model with respect to subsequent primary events. Mean age was 69 years, 24% were female, and mean baseline eGFR was 61 mL/min/1.73 m2. During 48 weeks of treatment, the trajectories in eGFR and creatinine with vericiguat were similar to placebo (P = 0.50 and 0.18). The beneficial effects of vericiguat on the primary outcome were not influenced by baseline eGFR (interaction P = 0.48). WRF occurred in 15% of patients and was associated with worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.11–1.47; P < 0.001), but the beneficial effects of vericiguat on the primary outcome were similar in patients with or without WRF (interaction P = 0.76). Conclusion: Renal function trajectories were similar between vericiguat‐ and placebo‐treated patients and the beneficial effects of vericiguat on the primary outcome were consistent across the full range of eGFR and irrespective of WRF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Nitroxyl provokes vasodilatation and inotropic and lusitropic effects in animals via post-translational modification of thiols. We aimed to compare effects of the nitroxyl donor cimlanod (BMS-986231) with those of nitroglycerin (NTG) or placebo on cardiac function in patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).Methods and Results: In a randomized, multicentre, double-blind, crossover trial, 45 patients with stable HFrEF were given a 5 h intravenous infusion of cimlanod, NTG, or placebo on separate days. Echocardiograms were done at the start and end of each infusion period and read in a core laboratory. The primary endpoint was stroke volume index derived from the left ventricular outflow tract at the end of each infusion period. Stroke volume index with placebo was 30 ± 7 mL/m2 and was lower with cimlanod (29 ± 9 mL/m2 ; P = 0.03) and NTG (28 ± 8 mL/m2 ; P = 0.02). Transmitral E-wave Doppler velocity on cimlanod or NTG was lower than on placebo and, consequently, E/e' (P = 0.006) and E/A ratio (P = 0.003) were also lower. NTG had similar effects to cimlanod on these measurements. Blood pressure reduction was similar with cimlanod and NTG and greater than with placebo.Conclusion: In patients with chronic HFrEF, the haemodynamic effects of cimlanod and NTG are similar. The effects of cimlanod may be explained by venodilatation and preload reduction without additional inotropic or lusitropic effects. Ongoing trials of cimlanod will further define its potential role in the treatment of heart failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanism of kidney injury in aging are not well understood. In order to identify hitherto unknown pathways of aging‐related kidney injury, we performed RNA‐Seq on kidney extracts of young and aged mice. Expression of chloride (Cl) channel accessory 1 (CLCA1) mRNA and protein was increased in the kidneys of aged mice. Immunostaining showed a marked increase in CLCLA1 expression in the proximal tubules of the kidney from aged mice. Increased kidney CLCA1 gene expression also correlated with aging in marmosets and in a human cohort. In aging mice, increased renal cortical CLCA1 content was associated with hydrogen sulfide (H2S) deficiency, which was ameliorated by administering sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS), a source of H2S. In order to study whether increased CLCA1 expression leads to injury phenotype and the mechanisms involved, stable transfection of proximal tubule epithelial cells overexpressing human CLCA1 (hCLCA1) was performed. Overexpression of hCLCA1 augmented Cl− current via the Ca++‐dependent Cl− channel TMEM16A (anoctamin‐1) by patch‐clamp studies. hCLCA1 overexpression also increased the expression of fibronectin, a matrix protein, and induced the senescence‐associated secretory phenotype (SASP). Mechanistic studies underlying these changes showed that hCLCA1 overexpression leads to inhibition of AMPK activity and stimulation of mTORC1 as cellular signaling determinants of injury. Both TMEM16A inhibitor and NaHS reversed these signaling events and prevented changes in fibronectin and SASP. We conclude that CLCA1‐TMEM16A‐Cl− current pathway is a novel mediator of kidney injury in aging that is regulated by endogenous H2S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contingency firelines can be used to back up primary lines to increase probability of fire containment, decrease fire losses, and improve firefighter safety. In this study, we classify firelines into primary, contingency, and response lines. We design a modeling process to iteratively implement a mixed integer programming model to evaluate contingency strategies under randomly generated fireline breaching scenarios. Our objectives include: (1) gaining conceptual understanding of the effectiveness of using contingency containers in a fireline network, and (2) suggesting future data collection and model improvement directions to support contingency strategy planning. We evaluate the effectiveness of several model generated containment strategies: only responding to observed primary line breaches, being proactive by implementing a system‐level contingency plan, or constructing contingency lines to back up a proportion of a primary container. Data from the Ferguson Fire in California are used to derive a set of hypothetical test cases with different fireline breaching risks to support sensitivity analysis. For comparison, we also test a contingency plan inspired by the Ferguson Fire operation. Analyses suggest that a contingency plan will provide the greatest benefit when fireline breaching risk is high. This study also suggests there are significant data and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to make the model suitable for operational use. Recommendations for Resource Managers Systems analysis can help evaluate contingency containment plans.A contingency plan will provide the greatest benefit when fireline breaching risk is high.It is often efficient to strategically locate contingency lines to back up primary lines with high breaching probabilities.A good contingency plan may help lower fire loss and save suppression effort under many fireline breaching scenarios.Data collection and synchronization are important in supporting future advances in fire containment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depression is a frequent and debilitating comorbidity that affects heart failure (HF) patients. Up to 30% of HF patients suffer from depression and even more have depressive symptoms. Moreover, depression carries a risk for HF, especially in high-risk groups, and is significantly associated with worse quality of life and clinical outcomes. The pathophysiology of depression and HF is poorly understood, but both diseases share several mechanisms and risk factors, including dysregulation of platelet reactivity, inflammation, neuroendocrine function, arrhythmias, high-risk behaviours, and social factors. Current HF guidelines advise to screen HF patients for depression and several screening questionnaires are available. Ultimately, the diagnosis of depression is based on DSM-5 criteria. Depression treatment consists of non-pharmacological and pharmacological therapies. Non-pharmacological therapies, such as exercise training and cognitive-behavioural therapy, have been shown to have beneficial effects on depressive symptoms. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the mainstay of antidepressant therapy, appear to be safe in HF but have not shown superiority over placebo in HF in short- and long-term randomized clinical trials. New therapies to treat depression are under investigation and may offer the opportunity to improve depression management in HF, including N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonists, repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation and omega-3 supplementation. New technologies may offer several advantages for the screening and diagnosis of depression but they remain to be tested in future research. In this review, we examine the intersection of depression and HF, summarize the epidemiology and pathophysiology, and discuss new opportunities to diagnose and treat HF patients with depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Istaroxime is a first‐in‐class agent which acts through inhibition of the sarcolemmal Na+/K+ pump and activation of the SERCA2a pump. This study assessed the effects of a 24 h infusion of istaroxime in patients hospitalised for acute heart failure (AHF). Methods and results: We included patients hospitalised for AHF with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% and E/e' > 10. Patients were randomised to a 24 h intravenous infusion of placebo or istaroxime at doses of 0.5 μg/kg/min (cohort 1: placebo n = 19; istaroxime n = 41) or 1.0 μg/kg/min (cohort 2: placebo n = 20, istaroxime n = 40). The primary endpoint of change in E/e' ratio from baseline to 24 h decreased with istaroxime vs. placebo (cohort 1: −4.55 ± 4.75 istaroxime 0.5 μg/kg/min vs. −1.55 ± 4.11 placebo, P = 0.029; cohort 2: −3.16 ± 2.59 istaroxime 1.0 μg/kg/min vs. −1.08 ± 2.72 placebo, P = 0.009). Both istaroxime doses significantly increased stroke volume index and decreased heart rate. Systolic blood pressure increased with istaroxime, achieving significance with the high dose. Self‐reported dyspnoea and N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide improved in all groups without significant differences between istaroxime and placebo. No significant differences in cardiac troponin absolute values or clinically relevant arrhythmias were observed during or after istaroxime infusion. Serious cardiac adverse events (including arrhythmias and hypotension) did not differ between placebo and istaroxime groups. The most common adverse events were injection site reactions and gastrointestinal events, the latter primarily with istaroxime 1.0 μg/kg/min. Conclusions: In patients hospitalised for AHF with reduced ejection fraction, a 24 h infusion of istaroxime improved parameters of diastolic and systolic cardiac function without major cardiac adverse effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Non-cardiac comorbidities are highly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF). Our objective was to define the association between non-cardiac comorbidity burden and clinical outcomes, costs of care, and length of stay within a large randomized trial of acute HF patients.Methods and Results: Patients with complete medical history for the following comorbidities were included: diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic liver disease, history of cancer within the last 5 years, chronic renal disease (baseline serum creatinine >3.0 mg/mL), current smoking, alcohol abuse, depression, anaemia, peripheral arterial disease, and cerebrovascular disease. Patients were classified by overall burden of non-cardiac comorbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, and 4+). Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to assess associations between comorbidity burden and 30-day all-cause death or HF hospitalization and 180-day all-cause death in addition to costs of care and length of stay. A total of 6945 patients were included in the final analysis. Mean comorbidity number was 2.2 (± 1.34). Patients with 4+ comorbidities had higher rates of 30-day all-cause death/HF hospitalization as compared with patients with no comorbidities [odds ratio (OR) 3.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-6.84; P < 0.01]. Similar results were seen with respect to 180-day death (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.33-3.43; P < 0.01). Higher comorbidity burden was associated with higher 180-day costs of care and length of stay.Conclusions: Higher comorbidity burden is associated with poor clinical outcomes, higher costs of care, and extended length of stay. Further studies are needed to define the impact of comorbidity management programmes on outcomes for HF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Recently, bio-adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) was proposed as a congestion marker in heart failure (HF). In the present study, we aimed to study whether bio-ADM levels at discharge from a hospital admission for worsening HF could provide additional information on (residual) congestion status, diuretic dose titration and clinical outcomes.Methods and Results: Plasma bio-ADM was measured in 1236 acute HF patients in the PROTECT trial at day 7 or discharge. Median discharge bio-ADM was 33.7 [21.5-61.5] pg/mL. Patients with higher discharge bio-ADM levels were hospitalised longer, had higher brain natriuretic peptide levels, and poorer diuretic response (all P < 0.001). Bio-ADM was the strongest predictor of discharge residual congestion (clinical congestion score > 3) (odds ratio 4.35, 95% confidence interval 3.37-5.62; P < 0.001). Oedema at discharge was one of the strongest predictors of discharge bio-ADM (β = 0.218; P < 0.001). Higher discharge loop diuretic doses were associated with a poorer diuretic response during hospitalisation (β = 0.187; P < 0.001) and higher bio-ADM levels (β = 0.084; P = 0.020). High discharge bio-ADM levels combined with higher use of loop diuretics were independently associated with a greater risk of 60-day HF rehospitalisation (hazard ratio 4.02, 95% confidence interval 2.23-7.26; P < 0.001).Conclusion: In hospitalised HF patients, elevated pre-discharge bio-ADM levels were associated with higher discharge loop diuretic doses and reflected residual congestion. Patients with combined higher bio-ADM levels and higher loop diuretic use at discharge had an increased risk of rehospitalisation. Assessment of discharge bio-ADM levels may be a readily applicable marker to identify patients with residual congestion at higher risk of early hospital readmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Describe the distinguishing features of heart failure (HF) patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial.Methods and Results: Key background characteristics were evaluated in 5050 patients randomized in VICTORIA and categorized into three cohorts reflecting their index worsening HF event. Differences within the VICTORIA population were assessed and compared with PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) and COMMANDER HF (A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Reducing the Risk of Death, Myocardial Infarction, or Stroke in Participants with Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Following an Episode of Decompensated Heart Failure). VICTORIA patients had increased risk of mortality and rehospitalization: New York Heart Association class (40% class III), atrial fibrillation (45%), diabetes (47%), hypertension (79%) and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate of 61.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 . Baseline standard of HF care was very good: 60% received triple therapy. Their N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 3377 pg/mL [interquartile range (IQR) 1992-6380]. Natriuretic peptides were 30% higher level in the 67% patients with HF hospitalization <3 months, compared to those within 3-6 months of HF hospitalization and those randomized after recent outpatient intravenous diuretic therapy. Overall the median MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) risk score in VICTORIA was 23 (IQR 18-27) as compared to the MAGGIC risk score in PARADIGM-HF of 20 (IQR 16-24).Conclusions: VICTORIA comprises a broadly generalizable high-risk population of three unique clinical strata of worsening chronic HFrEF despite very good HF therapy. VICTORIA will establish the role of vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, in HFrEF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: We sought to better understand the role of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and moderate or severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Methods and results: Using data from the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease, we analysed patients who underwent coronary angiography at Duke University Medical Center (1995–2012) that had stable CAD amenable to PCI and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35%. Patients with acute coronary syndrome or Canadian Cardiovascular Society class III or IV angina were excluded. We used propensity‐matched Cox proportional hazards to evaluate the association of PCI with mortality and hospitalizations. Of 901 patients, 259 were treated with PCI and 642 with medical therapy. PCI propensity scores created from 24 variables were used to assemble a matched cohort of 444 patients (222 pairs) receiving PCI or medical therapy alone. Over a median follow‐up of 7 years, 128 (58%) PCI and 125 (56%) medical therapy alone patients died [hazard ratio 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.68, 1.10)]; there was also no difference in the rate of a composite endpoint of all‐cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization [hazard ratio 1.18 (95% confidence interval 0.96, 1.44)] between the two groups. Conclusions: In this well‐profiled, propensity‐matched cohort of patients with stable CAD amenable to PCI and moderate or severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction, the addition of PCI to medical therapy did not improve long‐term mortality, or the composite of mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization. The impact of PCI on other outcomes in these high‐risk patients requires further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To describe differences in patient characteristics and outcomes by ethnicity in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, ejection fraction ≤35%) in a multi-ethnic cohort.Methods and Results: Patient level data from two cohorts (HF-ACTION and ASIAN-HF) were combined, and patients grouped by self-reported ethnicity. DM was defined as the presence of a clinical diagnosis and/or receiving anti-diabetic therapy. A total of 6214 (1324 whites, 674 blacks, 1297 Chinese, 1510 Indians, 717 Malays, 692 Japanese/Koreans) patients were included. The overall prevalence of DM was 39.5% (n = 2454). The prevalence of DM was lowest in whites (29.3%), followed by Japanese/Koreans (34.1%), blacks (35.9%), Chinese (42.3%), Indians (44.2%), and highest in Malays (51.9%). The correlation between age, sex, body mass index, coronary artery disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, peripheral vascular disease and chronic kidney disease with DM differed significantly by ethnicity (P for interaction <0.05). The strongest correlations were seen in Malay women, whites with obesity, Indians with coronary artery disease and hypertension, and blacks with chronic kidney disease. On multivariable analyses, DM was significantly associated with the composite of 1-year overall mortality/HF hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.57; P < 0.001), with no interaction by ethnicity (P for interaction =0.31).Conclusions: There is marked heterogeneity in the prevalence and correlates of DM among different ethnic groups with HF worldwide. Subgroups particularly predisposed to DM warrant special attention, since DM increases the combined risk of morbidity and mortality in all ethnicities with HF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although traditional renin-angiotensin system antagonists including angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers have revolutionized the treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the pivotal PARADIGM-HF trial demonstrated that sacubitril/valsartan, an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), was superior to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor in reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. However, despite international regulatory approval and strong recommendations in the guidelines, uptake of sacubitril/valsartan has been disappointing. Sacubitril/valsartan is now the focus of a large programme of clinical trials testing the hypothesis that ARNIs may supplant conventional renin-angiotensin system inhibitors across the spectrum of CVD, including hypertension, secondary prevention after myocardial infarction, and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This review summarizes the existing evidence, knowledge gaps, and future directions of ARNIs in CVD based on discussions between clinical trialists, industry representatives, and regulatory authorities at the 2016 Global CardioVascular Clinical Trialists Forum in Washington, D.C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The incidence of and factors associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) early after an acute heart failure (HF) hospital admission have not been well defined.Methods and Results: We assessed SCD and ventricular arrhythmias in the Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND-HF) trial, which included patients with acute HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction. SCD, resuscitated SCD (RSCD), and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) were adjudicated from randomization through 30 days and were combined into a composite endpoint. Baseline characteristics associated with this composite were determined by logistic regression. RSCD and VT/VF were included as time-dependent variables in a Cox model evaluating the association of these variables with 180-day all-cause mortality. Among 7011 patients, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 3.8%; SCD accounted for 17% of these deaths. The 30-day composite event rate was 1.8% (n = 121). Ten patients had more than one event with 30-day Kaplan-Meier event rates of 0.6% for SCD [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5%-0.9%, n = 43], 0.4% for RSCD (95% CI 0.2%-0.5%, n = 24), and 0.9% for VT/VF (95% CI 0.7%-1.2%, n = 64). In the multivariable model, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of VT, male sex, and longer QRS duration were associated with SCD, RSCD, or VT/VF. A RSCD or VT/VF event was associated with higher 180-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 6.6, 95% CI 4.8-9.1, P < 0.0001).Conclusions: Approximately 2% of patients admitted for acute HF experienced SCD, RSCD, or VT/VF within 30 days of admission, and SCD accounted for 17% of all deaths within 30 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for 30-day readmission. This study sought to examine the timings and causes of readmission within 30 days of an HF hospitalization.Methods and Results: Timing and cause of readmission in the ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide and Decompensated Heart Failure) trial were assessed. Early and late readmissions were defined as admissions occurring within 0-7 days and 8-30 days post-discharge, respectively. Patients who died in hospital or remained hospitalized at day 30 post-randomization were excluded. Patients were compared by timing and cause of readmission. Logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for early vs. late readmission and associations with 180-day outcomes. Of the 6584 patients (92%) in the ASCEND-HF population included in this analysis, 751 patients (11%) were readmitted within 30 days for any cause. Overall, 54% of readmissions were for non-HF causes. The median time to rehospitalization was 11 days (interquartile range: 6-18 days) and 33% of rehospitalizations occurred by day 7. Rehospitalization within 30 days was independently associated with increased risk for 180-day all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93-2.94; P < 0.001]. Risk for 180-day all-cause death did not differ according to early vs. late readmission (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.67-1.45; P = 0.94).Conclusions: In this hospitalized HF trial population, a significant majority of 30-day readmissions were for non-HF causes and one-third of readmissions occurred in the first 7 days. Early and late readmissions within the 30-day timeframe were associated with similarly increased risk for death. Continued efforts to optimize multidisciplinary transitional care are warranted to improve rates of early readmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) during an admission for acute heart failure (AHF), especially those leading to hypotension, have been suggested to increase the risk for adverse outcomes.Methods and Results: We analysed associations of SBP decrease during the first 24 h from randomization with serum creatinine changes at the last time-point available (72 h), using linear regression, and with 30- and 180-day outcomes, using Cox regression, in 1257 patients in the VERITAS study. After multivariable adjustment for baseline SBP, greater SBP decrease at 24 h from randomization was associated with greater creatinine increase at 72 h and greater risk for 30-day all-cause death, worsening heart failure (HF) or HF readmission. The hazard ratio (HR) for each 1 mmHg decrease in SBP at 24 h for 30-day death, worsening HF or HF rehospitalization was 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.02; P = 0.021]. Similarly, the HR for each 1 mmHg decrease in SBP at 24 h for 180-day all-cause mortality was 1.01 (95% CI 1.00-1.03; P = 0.038). The associations between SBP decrease and outcomes did not differ by tezosentan treatment group, although tezosentan treatment was associated with a greater SBP decrease at 24 h.Conclusions: In the current post hoc analysis, SBP decrease during the first 24 h was associated with increased renal impairment and adverse outcomes at 30 and 180 days. Caution, with special attention to blood pressure monitoring, should be exercised when vasodilating agents are given to AHF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hospitalisation for acute heart failure remains a major public health problem with high prevalence, morbidity, mortality, and cost. Prior attempts to develop new therapies for this condition have not been successful. Nitroxyl (HNO) plays a unique role in cardiovascular physiology by direct post-translational modification of thiol residues on target proteins, specifically SERCA2a, phospholamban, the ryanodine receptor and myofilament proteins in cardiomyocytes. In animal models, these biological effects lead to vasodilatation, increased inotropy and lusitropy, but without tachyphylaxis, pro-arrhythmia or evidence of increased myocardial oxygen demand. BMS-986231 is an HNO donor being developed as a therapy for heart failure, and initial studies in patients with heart failure support the potential clinical value of these physiological effects. In this manuscript, we describe the ongoing phase II development programme for BMS-986231, which consists of three related randomised placebo-controlled clinical trials, StandUP-AHF, StandUP-Imaging and StandUP-Kidney, which are designed to provide evidence of tolerability and efficacy as well as confirm the anticipated physiological effects in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. These studies will set the stage for the further study of BMS-986231 in future phase III clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most heart failure (HF) risk scores have been derived from cohorts of stable HF patients and may not incorporate up to date treatment regimens or deep phenotype characterization that change baseline risk over the short- and long-term follow-up period. We undertook the current analysis of participants in the GUIDE-IT (Guiding Evidence-Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment) trial to address these limitations.Methods and Results: The GUIDE-IT study randomized 894 high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (≤ 40%) to biomarker-guided treatment strategy vs. usual care. We performed risk modelling using Cox proportional hazards models and analysed the relationship between 35 baseline clinical factors and the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular (CV) death or HF hospitalization, the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality, and the exploratory endpoint of 90-day HF hospitalization or death. Prognostic relationships for continuous variables were examined and key predictors were identified using a backward variable selection process. Predictive models and risk scores were developed. Over a median follow-up of 15 months, the cumulative number of HF hospitalizations and CV deaths was 328 out of 894 patients (Kaplan-Meier event rate 34.5% at 12 months). Frequency of all-cause deaths was 143 out of 894 patients (Kaplan-Meier event rate 12.2% at 12 months). Outcomes for the primary and secondary endpoints between strategy arms of the study were similar. The most important predictor that was present in all three models was the baseline natriuretic peptide level. Hispanic ethnicity, low sodium and high heart rate were present in two of the three models. Other important predictors included the presence or absence of a device, New York Heart Association class, HF duration, black race, co-morbidities (sleep apnoea, elevated creatinine, ischaemic heart disease), low blood pressure, and a high congestion score.Conclusion: Risk models using readily available clinical information are able to accurately predict short- and long-term CV events and may be useful in optimizing care and enriching patients for clinical trials.Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID number NCT01685840. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: A 5-point change in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) is commonly considered to be a clinically significant difference in health status in patients with heart failure. We evaluated how the magnitude of change relates to subsequent clinical outcomes.Methods and Results: Using data from the HF-ACTION trial of exercise training in chronic heart failure (n = 2331), we used multivariable Cox regression with piecewise linear splines to examine the relationship between change in KCCQ overall summary score from baseline to 3 months (range 0-100; higher scores reflect better health status) and subsequent all-cause mortality/hospitalization. Among 2038 patients with KCCQ data at the 3-month visit, KCCQ scores increased from baseline by ≥5 points for 45%, scores decreased by ≥5 points for 23%, and scores changed by <5 points for the remaining 32% of patients. There was a non-linear relationship between change in KCCQ and outcomes. Worsening health status was associated with increased all-cause mortality/hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 1.07 per 5-point KCCQ decline; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.12; P < 0.001). In contrast, improving health status, up to an 8-point increase in KCCQ, was associated with decreased all-cause mortality/hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 0.93 per 5-point increase; 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97; P < 0.001). Additional improvements in health status beyond an 8-point increase in KCCQ was not associated with all-cause death or hospitalization (P = 0.42).Conclusion: In patients with heart failure, small changes in KCCQ are associated with changing future risk, but more research will be necessary to understand how different magnitudes of improving health status affect outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To undertake an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess the impact of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ExCR) in patients with heart failure (HF) on mortality and hospitalisation, and differential effects of ExCR according to patient characteristics: age, sex, ethnicity, New York Heart Association functional class, ischaemic aetiology, ejection fraction, and exercise capacity.Methods and Results: Randomised trials of exercise training for at least 3 weeks compared with no exercise control with 6-month follow-up or longer, providing IPD time to event on mortality or hospitalisation (all-cause or HF-specific). IPD were combined into a single dataset. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the effect of ExCR and the interactions between ExCR and participant characteristics. We used both two-stage random effects and one-stage fixed effect models. IPD were obtained from 18 trials including 3912 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Compared to control, there was no statistically significant difference in pooled time to event estimates in favour of ExCR although confidence intervals (CIs) were wide [all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) 0.83, 95% CI 0.67-1.04; HF-specific mortality: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.49-1.46; all-cause hospitalisation: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76-1.06; and HF-specific hospitalisation: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.72-1.35]. No strong evidence was found of differential intervention effects across patient characteristics.Conclusion: Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation did not have a significant effect on the risk of mortality and hospitalisation in HF with reduced ejection fraction. However, uncertainty around effect estimates precludes drawing definitive conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims It is unclear whether distinct pathophysiological processes are present among patients with acute heart failure (AHF), with and without diabetes. Network analysis of biomarkers may identify correlative associations that reflect different pathophysiological pathways. Methods and results We analysed a panel of 48 circulating biomarkers measured within 24 h of admission for AHF in a subset of patients enrolled in the PROTECT trial. In patients with and without diabetes, we performed a network analysis to identify correlations between measured biomarkers. Compared with patients without diabetes (n = 1111), those with diabetes (n = 922) had a higher prevalence of ischaemic heart disease and traditional coronary risk factors. After multivariable adjustment, patients with and without diabetes had significantly different levels of biomarkers across a spectrum of pathophysiological domains, including inflammation (TNFR-1a, periostin), cardiomyocyte stretch (BNP), angiogenesis (VEGFR, angiogenin), and renal function (NGAL, KIM-1) (adjusted P-value <0.05). Among patients with diabetes, network analysis revealed that periostin strongly clustered with C-reactive protein and interleukin-6. Furthermore, renal markers (creatinine and NGAL) closely associated with potassium and glucose. These findings were not seen among patients without diabetes. Conclusion Patients with AHF and diabetes, compared with those without diabetes, have distinct biomarker profiles. Network analysis suggests that cardiac remodelling, inflammation, and fibrosis are closely associated with each other in patients with diabetes. Furthermore, potassium levels may be sensitive to changes in renal function as reflected by the strong renal-potassium-glucose correlation. These findings were not seen among patients without diabetes and may suggest distinct pathophysiological processes among AHF patients with diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Improved prediction of early post-discharge death or rehospitalization after admission for acute heart failure is a major unmet need. We evaluated the value of biomarkers to predict either low or high risk for early post-discharge events. Methods and results A total of 1653 patients enrolled in the PROTECT trial who were discharged alive and with available blood samples were included. Forty-seven biomarkers were serially evaluated in these patients. Measurement closest to discharge was used to evaluate the predictive value of biomarkers for low and high post-discharge risk. Patients were classified as 'low risk' if post-discharge 30-day risk of death or heart failure rehospitalization was <5% while risk >20% was used to define 'high risk'. Cut-off values that yielded a 95% negative predictive value and a 20% positive predictive value were identified for each biomarker. Partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC) in the high-sensitivity and high-specificity regions was calculated to compare low-risk and high-risk predictive values. Of patients analysed, 193 (11.7%) patients reached the 30-day death or heart failure rehospitalization outcome. We found marked differences between low-risk and high-risk predictors. Cardiac-specific troponin I was the strongest biomarker for low-risk prediction (pAUC=0.552, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.58) while endothelin-1 showed better performance for high-risk prediction (pAUC=0.560, 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.59). Several biomarkers (individually and in combination) provided added predictive value, on top of a clinical model, in both low-risk and high-risk regions. Conclusion Different biomarkers predicted low risk vs. high risk of early post-discharge death or heart failure readmission in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Plasma concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and troponin are often measured for diagnostic purposes when patients are admitted with heart failure, but their prognostic value when measured soon after admission is uncertain. We aimed to investigate the added prognostic value of admission measurements of BNP and troponins in patients with acute heart failure. Methods and results Multivariable prognostic models for death or any worsening heart failure (WHF) or rehospitalization for WHF by 30 days, 30-day death or rehospitalization for WHF, and 90-day mortality were constructed using baseline data from the Value of Endothelin Receptor Inhibition with Tezosentan in Acute heart failure Studies (VERITAS) including BNP and troponin I. Of 1347 patients, the median (interquartile range) value of BNP was 422 (156-945) pg/mL and 855 (63%) had measurable troponin I. By 30 days, 432 patients had died or experienced WHF. Clinical variables had only moderate predictive performance that was not substantially improved by BNP or troponin I (c-indices 0.6528 and 0.6595, respectively). By 30 days, 150 patients died or were rehospitalized for WHF. The c-index using clinical variables (0.6855) was not improved by adding biomarkers. By 90 days, 135 patients had died. The c-index for mortality was somewhat better than for composite outcomes (0.7394) but improved little with biomarkers (0.7461). Conclusion Routine clinical data recorded at the time of admission in patients with acute heart failure are poor at predicting recurrent admissions but somewhat better at predicting mortality. Neither BNP nor troponin measured at admission improved predictions; measurement closer to discharge, or of other novel biomarkers, might perform differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The TRUE-AHF is a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial which is evaluating the effects of a 48-h infusion of ularitide (15 ng/kg/min) on the short- and long-term clinical course of patients with acute heart failure. Noteworthy features of the study include the early enrolment of patients following their initial clinical presentation (within 12 h), and entry blood pressure criteria and thresholds for the adjustment of drug infusion rates, which aim to minimize the risk of hypotension. The trial has two primary endpoints: (i) cardiovascular mortality during long-term follow-up; and (ii) the clinical course of patients during their index hospitalization. Cardiovascular mortality is evaluated in this event-driven trial by following all randomized patients for the occurrence of death until the end of the entire study without truncation at an arbitrarily determined early time point. The clinical course during the index hospitalization is evaluated using the hierarchical clinical composite endpoint, which combines information regarding changes in symptoms and the occurrence of in-hospital worsening heart failure events and death into a single ranked metric that captures interval clinical events and minimizes the likelihood of missing data and confounding due to intensification of background therapy. The design of the TRUE-AHF trial capitalizes on lessons learned from earlier trials and aims to evaluate definitively the potential benefit of ularitide in patients with acute heart failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is returning to many conifer-dominated forests where species composition and structure have been altered by fire exclusion. Ecological effects of these fires are influenced strongly by the degree of forest change during the fire-free period. Response of fire-adapted species assemblages to extended fire-free intervals is highly variable, even in communities with similar historical fire regimes. This variability in plant community response to fire exclusion is not well understood; however, ecological mechanisms such as individual species' adaptations to disturbance or competition and underlying site characteristics that facilitate or impede establishment and growth have been proposed as potential drivers of assemblage response. We used spatially explicit dendrochronological reconstruction of tree population dynamics and fire regimes to examine the influence of historical disturbance frequency (a proxy for adaptation to disturbance or competition), and potential site productivity (a proxy for underlying site characteristics) on the stability of forest composition and structure along a continuous ecological gradient of pine, dry mixed-conifer, mesic mixed-conifer, and spruce-fir forests following fire exclusion. While average structural density increased in all forests, species composition was relatively stable in the lowest productivity pine-dominated and highest productivity spruce-fir-dominated sites immediately following fire exclusion and for the next 100 years, suggesting site productivity as a primary control on species composition and structure in forests with very different historical fire regimes. Species composition was least stable on intermediate productivity sites dominated by mixed-conifer forests, shifting from primarily fire-adapted species to competition-adapted, fire-sensitive species within 20 years of fire exclusion. Rapid changes to species composition and stand densities have been interpreted by some as evidence of high-severity fire. We demonstrate that the very different ecological process of fire exclusion can produce similar changes by shifting selective pressures from disturbance-mediated to productivity-mediated controls. Restoring disturbance-adapted species composition and structure to intermediate productivity forests may help to buffer them against projected increasing temperatures, lengthening fire seasons, and more frequent and prolonged moisture stress. Fewer management options are available to promote adaptation in forest assemblages historically constrained by underlying site productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Heart failure (HF) can be associated with a higher resting heart rate (HR), and an elevated HR is associated with adverse long-term events. However, the mechanistic and causal role of HR in HF is unclear. This study aimed to investigate changes in HR during hospitalization, and the association between discharge HR and clinical outcomes as well as an interaction with beta-blocker therapy in patients with acute decompensated HF (ADHF). Methods and results: We studied 2906 patients with an LVEF =35%, without AF, who were enrolled in the ASCEND-HF trial. A total of 2492 (85.8%) patients had a HR =70 b.p.m. at baseline and 1580 (54.4%) patients were on beta-blocker treatment. Although HR was gradually reduced from baseline to discharge (85.5±15.9 b.p.m. at baseline, 81.7±14.1 b.p.m. at 24 h from treatment initiation, and 79.1±12.2 b.p.m. at discharge), 80.2% of the patients still had a HR =70 b.p.m. at discharge. Patients with a HR =70 b.p.m. at discharge had significantly lower survival rates than those with a HR <70 b.p.m. (adjusted hazard ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.04, P = 0.002). Moreover, HR at discharge had a curvilinear association with mortality, and had no significant interaction effect with beta-blocker therapy at discharge (P = 0.82). Conclusions: Despite current beta-blocker therapy, many patients with hospitalized ADHF with reduced LVEF have relatively high discharge HR, and discharge HR is associated with higher mortality. Further studies are warranted to determine the optimal strategy for HR control to improve outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The course of patients following admission for acute heart failure (AHF) is of major importance to patients and healthcare providers. We examined predictors and associations of length of stay (LOS), 30-day post-discharge readmission and 90-day post-discharge mortality in 1990 patients enrolled in the PROTECT study.Methods and Results: PROTECT was a randomized study that examined the effect of the adenosine blocker rolofylline in patients within 24 h of admission for AHF with mild to moderate renal impairment. Geographic-region-adjusted multivariable models showed that LOS was only partly explained by the severity of heart failure (HF), comorbidities (diabetes mellitus, renal impairment, ischaemic heart disease) and degree of metabolic dysfunction (cholesterol and albumin) at baseline (adjusted R(2) 0.27). Addition of in-hospital worsening heart failure (WHF) and changes in metabolic markers contributed significantly to prediction of LOS [R(2) difference 0.050, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0282-0.072]. Thirty-day HF readmission was associated with more severe HF and previous HF admission but not with LOS (odds ratios 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.04). Death within 90 days after discharge was associated with older age, more severe HF, worse renal function, and lower sodium and bicarbonate at admission; LOS was a strong predictor of 90-day post-discharge mortality.Conclusions: In patients admitted for AHF, LOS is not well-predicted by traditional markers of disease severity, but strongly associated with the occurrence of in-hospital WHF. Longer LOS is a strong predictor of early mortality after discharge but not of readmission. These findings may help focus efforts to reduce LOS and post-discharge outcomes on patients' subgroups at increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Episodes of acute heart failure (AHF) unfavourably affect multiple organs, which may have an adverse impact on the outcomes. We investigated the prevalence and clinical consequences of abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) in AHF patients enrolled in the PROTECT study. Methods and results: The LFTs comprised serial assessment of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and albumin at baseline and during follow-up (daily until discharge, on days 7 and 14). The prevalence of abnormal LFTs (above upper limit of normal for AST and ALT or below lower limit of normal for albumin) was: at baseline AST 20%, ALT 12%, albumin 40%; and at day 14: AST 15%, ALT 9%, albumin 26%. Abnormal LFTs at baseline were associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death with odds ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 3.5 (1.7-7.3) for AST, 3.9 (1.8-8.4) for ALT, and 2.8 (1.3-5.9) for albumin (all P <0.01). Abnormal baseline and discharge LFTs had an unfavourable impact on 180-day mortality with hazard ratios (95% CI) for baseline AST, ALT, and albumin of 1.3 (1.0-1.7), 1.1 (1.0-1.2), 1.4 (1.1-1.8), respectively, and 1.5 (1.1-2.0), 1.5 (1.0-2.2), and 1.6 (1.2-2.1), for discharge AST, ALT, albumin, respectively (all P <0.05). Analysis of LFTs trajectories (calculated as changes in LFTs over time) revealed that increasing AST and ALT on day 3 as well as decreasing albumin on day 4 were independent prognosticators of 180-day outcome (all P <0.05). Conclusions: Abnormal LFTs are frequent in AHF at baseline and during hospital stay and predict worse outcomes. Whether this association is causal and what are the underlying mechanisms involved require further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: It remains unclear if early administration of i.v. nesiritide in patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) is associated with improved clinical outcomes. Methods and results: We analysed data from 7007 patients enrolled in ASCEND-HF to examine the associations between time to treatment with study medication (nesiritide or placebo) and clinical endpoints: (i) moderate to marked dyspnoea relief on a 7-point Likert scale at 6 h; (ii) 30-day all-cause mortality or re-hospitalization; and (iii) 30-day all-cause mortality. The median time to study drug administration was 16.7 h (25th, 75th percentiles=6.5, 23.1), with significant regional variation (e.g. median of 13.0 h in Asia-Pacific vs. 18.4 h in North America). After risk adjustment, each hour delay in study medication after the first 10 h from initial hospital presentation was associated with modestly reduced odds of dyspnoea relief [(adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98-0.99; P < 0.0001]. Every hour delay in study medication was associated with modestly higher all-cause mortality or re-hospitalization (unadjusted OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02; P < 0.001) due to pre-randomization therapies and known predictors of 30-day outcomes (adjusted P = 0.12). There was no significant association between time to study drug and all-cause mortality (P >0.08). Conclusion: In a large international AHF trial, time to treatment with study medication varied markedly across regions. Earlier administration of study medication was associated with modestly better dyspnoea relief, but not 30-day clinical outcomes. The association between timing of treatment with study medication and study endpoints may have implications for the interpretation of AHF studies and future trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) is a marker of tubular damage and associated with worse outcome in heart failure (HF). Plasma KIM-1 has not been described in HF. Methods and results: In a renal mechanistic cohort of 120 chronic HF patients, we established the association between plasma KIM-1, renal invasive haemodynamic parameters {renal blood flow ([131I]hippuran clearance) and measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR; [125I]iothalamate)} and urinary tubular damage markers. The association between plasma KIM-1, plasma creatinine, and clinical outcome was further explored in a cohort of 2033 acute HF patients. Median plasma KIM-1 was 171.5 pg/mL (122.8-325.7) in chronic (n = 99) and 295.1 pg/mL (182.2-484.2) in acute HF (n = 1588). In chronic HF, plasma KIM-1 was associated with GFR (P < 0.001), creatinine, and cystatin C. Plasma KIM-1 was associated with urinary N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), but not with other urinary tubular damage markers. Log plasma KIM-1 predicted adverse clinical outcome after adjustment for age, gender, and GFR [hazard ratio (HR) 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-3.53, P = 0.030]. Statistical significance was lost after correction for NT-proBNP (HR 1.61, 95% CI 0.81-3.20, P = 0.175). In acute HF, higher plasma KIM-1 levels were associated with higher creatinine, lower albumin, and presence of diabetes. Log plasma KIM-1 predicted 60-day HF rehospitalization (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.55, P = 0.024), but not 180-day mortality or 60-day death or renal or cardiovascular rehospitalization. Conclusions: Plasma KIM-1 is associated with glomerular filtration and urinary NAG, but not with other urinary tubular damage markers. Plasma KIM-1 does not predict outcome in chronic HF after correction for NT-proBNP. In acute HF, plasma KIM-1 predicts HF rehospitalization in multivariable analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]