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The relationship between ecology and morphology is a cornerstone of evolutionary biology, and quantifying variation across environments can shed light on processes that give rise to biodiversity. Three morphotypes of the Steller's Jay (Cyanocitta stelleri) occupy different ecoregions in western North America, which vary in climate and landcover. These morphotypes (Coastal, Interior, Rocky Mountain) differ in size, plumage coloration, and head pattern. We sampled 1080 Steller's Jays from 68 populations (plus 11 outgroups) to address three main questions using data on morphology, plumage, genetics (mtDNA, microsatellites), and ecological niches: (1) How do phenotypic and genetic traits vary within and among populations, morphotypes, and ecoregions? (2) How do population‐level differences in Steller's Jays compare with other sister species pairs of North American birds? (3) What can we infer about the population history of Steller's Jays in relation to past climates, paleoecology, and niche evolution? We found substantial morphological, genetic, and ecological differentiation among morphotypes. The greatest genetic divergence separated Coastal and Interior morphotypes from the Rocky Mountain morphotype, which was associated with warmer, drier, and more open habitats. Microsatellites revealed additional structure between Coastal and Interior groups. The deep mtDNA split between Coastal/Interior and Rocky Mountain lineages of Steller's Jay (ND2 ~ 7.8%) is older than most North American avian sister species and dates to approximately 4.3 mya. Interior and Rocky Mountain morphotypes contact across a narrow zone with steep clines in traits and reduced gene flow. The distribution of the three morphotypes coincides with divergent varieties of ponderosa pine and Douglas fir. Species distribution models support multiple glacial refugia for Steller's Jays. Our integrative dataset combined with extensive geographic sampling provides compelling evidence for recognizing at least two species of Steller's Jay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly applied to predict species' responses to anticipated global change, but lack of data from future time periods precludes assessment of their reliability. Instead, performance against test data in the same era is assumed to correlate with accuracy in the future. Moreover, high-confidence absence data is required for testing model accuracy but is often unavailable since a species may be present when undetected. Here we evaluate the performance of eight SDMs trained with historic (1900-1939) or modern (1970-2009) climate data and occurrence records for 18 mammalian species. Models were projected to the same or the opposing time period and evaluated with data obtained from surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and his colleagues in the Sierra Nevada of California from 1900 to 1939 and modern resurveys from 2003 to 2011. Occupancy modeling was used to confidently assign absences at test sites where species were undetected. SDMs were evaluated using species' presences combined with this high-confidence absence (HCA) set, a low-confidence set in which non-detections were assumed to indicate absence (LCA), and randomly located 'pseudoabsences' (PSA). Model performance increased significantly with the quality of absences (mean AUC ± SE: 0.76 ± 0.01 for PSA, 0.79 ± 0.01 for LCA, and 0.81 ± 0.01 for HCA), and apparent differences between SDMs declined as the quality of test absences increased. Models projecting across time performed as well as when projecting within the same time period when assessed with threshold-independent metrics. However, accuracy of presence and absence predictions sometimes declined in cross-era projections. Although most variation in performance occurred among species, autecological traits were only weakly correlated with model accuracy. Our study indicates that a) the quality of evaluation data affects assessments of model performance; b) within-era performance correlates positively but unreliably with cross-era performance; and c) SDMs can be reliably but cautiously projected across time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence-absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts from artifacts of false absences. Over the past century, rising temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions. While 84% of species shifted their elevational distribution, only 51% of upper or lower range boundary shifts were upslope. By comparison, 82% of range shifts were in a direction predicted by changes in either temperature or precipitation. Species were significantly more likely to shift elevational ranges than their ecological counterparts if they had small clutch sizes, defended all-purpose territories, and were year-round residents, results that were in opposition to a priori predictions from dispersal-related hypotheses. Our results illustrate the complex interplay between species-specific and region-specific factors that structure patterns of breeding range change over long time periods. Future projections of increasing temperature and highly variable precipitation regimes create a strong potential for heterogeneous responses by species at range margins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high rate of anthropogenic impact on natural systems mandates protection of the evolutionary processes that generate and sustain biological diversity. Environmental drivers of diversification include spatial heterogeneity of abiotic and biotic agents of divergent selection, features that suppress gene flow, and climatic or geological processes that open new niche space. To explore how well such proxies perform as surrogates for conservation planning, we need first to map areas with rapid diversification —‘evolutionary hotspots’. Here we combine estimates of range size and divergence time to map spatial patterns of neo-endemism for mammals of California, a global biodiversity hotspot. Neo-endemism is explored at two scales: (i) endemic species, weighted by the inverse of range size and mtDNA sequence divergence from sisters; and (ii) as a surrogate for spatial patterns of phenotypic divergence, endemic subspecies, again using inverse-weighting of range size. The species-level analysis revealed foci of narrowly endemic, young taxa in the central Sierra Nevada, northern and central coast, and Tehachapi and Peninsular Ranges. The subspecies endemism-richness analysis supported the last four areas as hotspots for diversification, but also highlighted additional coastal areas (Monterey to north of San Francisco Bay) and the Inyo Valley to the east. We suggest these hotspots reflect the major processes shaping mammal neo-endemism: steep environmental gradients, biotic admixture areas, and areas with recent geological/climate change. Anthropogenic changes to both environment and land use will have direct impacts on regions of rapid divergence. However, despite widespread changes to land cover in California, the majority of the hotspots identified here occur in areas with relatively intact ecological landscapes. The geographical scope of conserving evolutionary process is beyond the scale of any single agency or nongovernmental organization. Choosing which land to closely protect and/or purchase will always require close coordination between agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]