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Objective: The standard method of generating disorder‐specific disability scores has lay raters make rankings between pairs of disorders based on brief disorder vignettes. This method introduces bias due to differential rater knowledge of disorders and inability to disentangle the disability due to disorders from the disability due to comorbidities. Methods: We propose an alternative, data‐driven, method of generating disorder‐specific disability scores that assesses disorders in a sample of individuals either from population medical registry data or population survey self‐reports and uses Generalized Random Forests (GRF) to predict global (rather than disorder‐specific) disability assessed by clinician ratings or by survey respondent self‐reports. This method also provides a principled basis for studying patterns and predictors of heterogeneity in disorder‐specific disability. We illustrate this method by analyzing data for 16 disorders assessed in the World Mental Health Surveys (n = 53,645). Results: Adjustments for comorbidity decreased estimates of disorder‐specific disability substantially. Estimates were generally somewhat higher with GRF than conventional multivariable regression models. Heterogeneity was nonsignificant. Conclusions: The results show clearly that the proposed approach is practical, and that adjustment is needed for comorbidities to obtain accurate estimates of disorder‐specific disability. Expansion to a wider range of disorders would likely find more evidence for heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Likelihood of alcohol dependence (AD) is increased among people who transition to greater levels of alcohol involvement at a younger age. Indicated interventions delivered early may be effective in reducing risk, but could be costly. One way to increase cost‐effectiveness would be to develop a prediction model that targeted interventions to the subset of youth with early alcohol use who are at highest risk of subsequent AD. Design: A prediction model was developed for DSM‐IV AD onset by age 25 years using an ensemble machine‐learning algorithm known as 'Super Learner'. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) assessed variable importance. Setting and Participants: Respondents reporting early onset of regular alcohol use (i.e. by 17 years of age) who were aged 25 years or older at interview from 14 representative community surveys conducted in 13 countries as part of WHO's World Mental Health Surveys. Measurements The primary outcome to be predicted was onset of life‐time DSM‐IV AD by age 25 as measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured diagnostic interview. Findings AD prevalence by age 25 was 5.1% among the 10 687 individuals who reported drinking alcohol regularly by age 17. The prediction model achieved an external area under the curve [0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74–0.81] higher than any individual candidate risk model (0.73–0.77) and an area under the precision‐recall curve of 0.22. Overall calibration was good [integrated calibration index (ICI) = 1.05%]; however, miscalibration was observed at the extreme ends of the distribution of predicted probabilities. Interventions provided to the 20% of people with highest risk would identify 49% of AD cases and require treating four people without AD to reach one with AD. Important predictors of increased risk included younger onset of alcohol use, males, higher cohort alcohol use and more mental disorders. Conclusions: A risk algorithm can be created using data collected at the onset of regular alcohol use to target youth at highest risk of alcohol dependence by early adulthood. Important considerations remain for advancing the development and practical implementation of such models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine patterns and predictors of perceived treatment helpfulness for mania/hypomania and associated depression in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Methods: Face‐to‐face interviews with community samples across 15 countries found n = 2,178 who received lifetime mania/hypomania treatment and n = 624 with lifetime mania/hypomania who received lifetime major depression treatment. These respondents were asked whether treatment was ever helpful and, if so, the number of professionals seen before receiving helpful treatment. Patterns and predictors of treatment helpfulness were examined separately for mania/hypomania and depression. Results: 63.1% (mania/hypomania) and 65.1% (depression) of patients reported ever receiving helpful treatment. However, only 24.5–22.5% were helped by the first professional seen, which means that the others needed to persist in help seeking after initial unhelpful treatments in order to find helpful treatment. Projections find only 22.9% (mania/hypomania) and 43.3% (depression) would persist through a series of unhelpful treatments but that the proportion helped would increase substantially if persistence increased. Few patient‐level significant predictors of helpful treatment emerged and none consistently either across the two components (i.e., provider‐level helpfulness and persistence after earlier unhelpful treatment) or for both mania/hypomania and depression. Although prevalence of treatment was higher in high‐income than low/middle‐income countries, proportional helpfulness among treated cases was nearly identical in the two groups of countries. Conclusions: Probability of patients with mania/hypomania and associated depression obtaining helpful treatment might increase substantially if persistence in help‐seeking increased after initially unhelpful treatments, although this could require seeing numerous additional treatment providers. In addition to investigating reasons for initial treatments not being helpful, messages reinforcing the importance of persistence should be emphasized to patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The aim of this study was to discuss methodological limitations in studies on the prevalence of dementia across European countries with particular attention to post-EURODEM studies. Methods Two people independently focused on an iterative literature search for studies published in the years 2000-2012 using the following keywords: 'dementia', 'Alzheimer', 'incidence', 'prevalence' that were cross-linked with names of European countries. After that, the results obtained were compared and publications in English were included in a subsequent analysis. Results We included 26 studies published in the years 2000-2012. The majority of epidemiological studies come from Spain and Italy. The past decade has not provided prevalence rates from a considerable number of countries. There is also a lack of nationwide surveys on the prevalence of dementia. Predominantly, epidemiological studies on the prevalence of dementia follow a two-stage approach that consists of a screening phase and a subsequent confirmation of dementia. However, several differences, particularly with regard to the neuropsychological instruments used, still exist and contribute to inconsistent prevalence rates. Conclusions Although the EURODEM study was a milestone in the epidemiology of dementia in Europe and provided several future directions for research, methodological limitations are apparent in a number of European studies on the prevalence of dementia and require particular attention. In particular, a variety of diagnostic instruments requires unification for future studies. On the other hand, given the lack of epidemiological studies from a number of countries and the increasing prevalence of dementia, the need for population-based surveys should be emphasized. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]