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The timing of avian migration has evolved to exploit critical seasonal resources, yet plasticity within phenological responses may allow adjustments to interannual resource phenology. The diversity of migratory species and changes in underlying resources in response to climate change make it challenging to generalize these relationships.We use bird banding records during spring and fall migration from across North America to examine macroscale phenological responses to interannual fluctuations in temperature and long‐term annual trends in phenology.In total, we examine 19 species of North American wood warblers (family Parulidae), summarizing migration timing from 2,826,588 banded birds from 1961 to 2018 across 46 sites during spring and 124 sites during fall.During spring, warmer spring temperatures at banding locations translated to earlier median passage dates for 16 of 19 species, with an average 0.65‐day advancement in median passage for every 1°C increase in temperature, ranging from 0.25 to 1.26 days °C−1. During the fall, relationships were considerably weaker, with only 3 of 19 species showing a relationship with temperature. In those three cases, later departure dates were associated with warmer fall periods. Projecting these trends forward under climate scenarios of temperature change, we forecast continued spring advancements under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100 and more muted and variable shifts for fall.These results demonstrate the capacity of long‐distance migrants to respond to interannual fluctuations in temperatures, at least during the spring, and showcase the potential of North American bird banding data understanding phenological trends across a wide diversity of avian species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near‐term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migrating birds require en route habitats to rest and refuel. Yet, habitat use has never been integrated with passage to understand the factors that determine where and when birds stopover during spring and autumn migration. Here, we introduce the stopover‐to‐passage ratio (SPR), the percentage of passage migrants that stop in an area, and use 8 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radars to estimate over 50% SPR during spring and autumn through the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the south‐eastern US, the most prominent corridor for North America's migratory birds. During stopovers, birds concentrated close to the coast during spring and inland in forested landscapes during autumn, suggesting seasonal differences in habitat function and highlighting the vital role of stopover habitats in sustaining migratory communities. Beyond advancing understanding of migration ecology, SPR will facilitate conservation through identification of sites that are disproportionally selected for stopover by migrating birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the timing and intensity of migratory movements is imperative for understanding impacts of changing landscapes and climates on migratory bird populations. Billions of birds migrate in the Western Hemisphere, but accurately estimating the population size of one migratory species, let alone hundreds, presents numerous obstacles. Here, we quantify the timing, intensity, and distribution of bird migration through one of the largest migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico (the Gulf). We further assess whether there have been changes in migration timing or intensity through the Gulf. To achieve this, we integrate citizen science (eBird) observations with 21 years of weather surveillance radar data (1995–2015). We predicted no change in migration timing and a decline in migration intensity across the time series. We estimate that an average of 2.1 billion birds pass through this region each spring en route to Nearctic breeding grounds. Annually, half of these individuals pass through the region in just 18 days, between April 19 and May 7. The western region of the Gulf showed a mean rate of passage 5.4 times higher than the central and eastern regions. We did not detect an overall change in the annual numbers of migrants (2007–2015) or the annual timing of peak migration (1995–2015). However, we found that the earliest seasonal movements through the region occurred significantly earlier over time (1.6 days decade−1). Additionally, body mass and migration distance explained the magnitude of phenological changes, with the most rapid advances occurring with an assemblage of larger‐bodied shorter‐distance migrants. Our results provide baseline information that can be used to advance our understanding of the developing implications of climate change, urbanization, and energy development for migratory bird populations in North America. We quantify the timing, intensity, and distribution of bird migration through one of the largest migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico, by integrating citizen science (eBird) observations with weather surveillance radar data. We estimate that an average of 2.1 billion birds pass through this region each spring, with half of these individuals pass through the region in just 18 days, between April 19 and May 7. We did not detect an overall change in the annual numbers of migrants (2007–2015) or the annual timing of peak migration (1995–2015). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems. We used information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous USA to estimate the altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century under global climate change. Across the eastern and especially the central portions of the continent, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The migratory patterns of birds have been the focus of ecologists for millennia. What behavioural traits underlie these remarkably consistent movements? Addressing this question is central to advancing our understanding of migratory flight strategies and requires the integration of information across levels of biological organisation, e.g. species to communities. Here, we combine species‐specific observations from the eBird citizen‐science database with observations aggregated from weather surveillance radars during spring migration in central North America. Our results confirm a core prediction of migration theory at an unprecedented national scale: body mass predicts variation in flight strategies across latitudes, with larger‐bodied species flying faster and compensating more for wind drift. We also find evidence that migrants travelling northward earlier in the spring increasingly compensate for wind drift at higher latitudes. This integration of information across biological scales provides new insight into patterns and determinants of broad‐scale flight strategies of migratory birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioacoustic localization of bird vocalizations provides unattended observations of the location of calling individuals in many field applications. While this technique has been successful in monitoring terrestrial distributions of calling birds, no published study has applied these methods to migrating birds in flight. The value of nocturnal flight call recordings can increase with the addition of three-dimensional position retrievals, which can be achieved with adjustments to existing localization techniques. Using the time difference of arrival method, we have developed a proof-of-concept acoustic microphone array that allows the three-dimensional positioning of calls within the airspace. Our array consists of six microphones, mounted in pairs at the top and bottom of three 10-m poles, arranged in an equilateral triangle with sides of 20 m. The microphone array was designed using readily available components and costs less than $2,000 USD to build and deploy. We validate this technique using a kite-lofted GPS and speaker package, and obtain 60.1% of vertical retrievals within the accuracy of the GPS measurements (±5 m) and 80.4% of vertical retrievals within ±10 m. The mean Euclidian distance between the acoustic retrievals of flight calls and the GPS truth was 9.6 m. Identification and localization of nocturnal flight calls have the potential to provide species-specific spatial characterizations of bird migration within the airspace. Even with the inexpensive equipment used in this trial, low-altitude applications such as surveillance around wind farms or oil platforms can benefit from the three-dimensional retrievals provided by this technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concern about the sustainability of intercontinental-scale migration systems grows apace with global change. Traditional organism-centred approaches to this problem have provided insights at the population level, but not at the systems level. We are sceptical that an accumulation of data from a species-by-species approach will yield an understanding of these systems in the near term. As an alternative, we advocate a new research programme that grows from an explicitly system-based framework that leverages existing Earth observation infrastructure to make inferences directly at the macrosystem level. We illustrate how this approach can be used to generate and test system-level predictions, using NEXRAD radar data as an example. We urge organismal ecologists to recognize that some of the most urgent migration questions are at the macrosystem scale and that tackling these questions requires an interdisciplinary approach if we are to make progress at a pace that exceeds that of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As wind energy rapidly expands worldwide, information to minimize impacts of this development on biodiversity is urgently needed. Here we demonstrate how data collected by weather radar networks can inform placement and operation of wind facilities to reduce collisions and minimize habitat‐related impacts on nocturnally migrating birds. We found over a third of nocturnal migrants flew through altitudes within the rotor‐swept zone surrounding the North American Great Lakes, a continentally important migration corridor. Migrating birds concentrated in terrestrial stopover habitats within 20‐km from shorelines, a distance well beyond the current guidelines for construction of new land‐based facilities, and their distributions varied seasonally and at local and regional scales, creating predictable opportunities to minimize impacts from wind energy development and operation. Networked radar data are available across the United States and other countries and broad application of this approach could provide information critical to bird‐friendly expansion of this globally important energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering the timing of seasonal events for many taxa. There is limited understanding of how northward/southward songbird migration follows or is limited by the latitudinal progression of seasonal transitions. Consistent environmental conditions that migrating birds encounter across latitudes likely represent or correlate with important resources or limiting factors for migration. We tested whether migratory passage—observed via radar—consistently tracked land surface variables and phenophases across latitudes in the US Central Flyway in both spring and fall. The daily temperatures, precipitation and vegetation greenness occurring on 10%, 50% and 90% cumulative passage dates changed substantially with latitude, indicating that most migrants experienced rapidly changing conditions as they headed north or south. Temperature did not limit the progression of migration in either season. Peak spring migration in the southern US occurred nearly 40 days after the spring green wave, the northward progression of vegetation growth, but nearly caught up to green‐up at 48° N. Spring migration phenology may have evolved to prioritize earlier arrival for breeding. Across all latitudes, peak fall migration coincided with the same land surface phenophase, an interval of 26 days prior to dormancy onset. Migrants may rely on phenological events in vegetation during fall stopovers. Considering that (a) migratory passage tracked fall land surface phenology across latitudes at a continental scale, (b) previous studies at local scales have demonstrated the importance of fruit during fall migratory stopover and (c) fruiting phenology in North America is occurring later over time while fall migration is advancing, the potential for mismatch between fall fruiting and bird migration phenology urgently needs further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Up to 1 billion birds die annually in the U.S. from window collisions; most of these casualties represent migratory native species. Because this major mortality source likely contributes to the decline of the North American avifauna, mitigation tools are needed that accurately predict real‐time collision risk, allowing hazards to be minimized before fatalities occur.We assessed the potential use of weather surveillance radar, an emerging tool increasingly used to study and to predict bird migration, as an early warning system to reduce numbers of bird‐window collisions.Based on bird‐window collision monitoring in Oklahoma, USA, we show that radar‐derived migration variables are associated with nightly numbers of collisions. Across the entire night, numbers of collisions increased with higher migration traffic rate (i.e. numbers of birds crossing a fixed line perpendicular to migration direction), and migration variables for specific periods within the night were also related to nightly collisions.Synthesis and applications. Our study suggests that radar can be an invaluable tool to predict bird‐window collisions and help refine mitigation efforts that reduce collisions such as reducing nighttime lighting emitted from and near buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: A unique risk faced by nocturnally migrating birds is the disorienting influence of artificial light at night (ALAN). ALAN originates from anthropogenic activities that can generate other forms of environmental pollution, including the emission of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). PM2.5 concentrations can display strong seasonal variation whose origin can be natural or anthropogenic. How this variation affects seasonal associations with ALAN and PM2.5 for nocturnally migrating bird populations has not been explored. Location: Western Hemisphere. Time Period: 2021 Major Taxa Studied: Nocturnally migrating passerine (NMP) bird species. Methods: We combined monthly estimates of PM2.5 and ALAN with weekly estimates of relative abundance for 164 NMP species derived using observations from eBird. We identified groups of species with similar associations with monthly PM2.5. We summarized their shared environmental, geographical, and ecological attributes. Results: PM2.5 was lowest in North America, especially at higher latitudes during the boreal winter. PM2.5 was highest in the Amazon Basin, especially during the dry season (August–October). ALAN was highest within eastern North America, especially during the boreal winter. For NMP species, PM2.5 associations reached their lowest levels during the breeding season (<10 μg/m3) and highest levels during the nonbreeding season, especially for long‐distance migrants that winter in Central and South America (~20 μg/m3). Species that migrate through Central America in the spring encountered similarly high PM2.5 concentrations. ALAN associations reached their highest levels for species that migrate (~12 nW/cm2/sr) or spend the nonbreeding season (~15 nW/cm2/sr) in eastern North America. Main Conclusions: We did not find evidence that the disorienting influence of ALAN enhances PM2.5 exposure during stopover in the spring and autumn for NMP species. Rather, our findings suggest biomass burning in the Neotropics is exposing NMP species to consistently elevated PM2.5 concentrations for an extended period of their annual life cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than two billion birds migrate through the Gulf of Mexico each spring en route to breeding grounds in the USA and Canada. This region has a long history of complex natural and anthropogenic environments as the northern Gulf coast provides the first possible stopover habitats for migrants making nonstop trans‐Gulf crossings during spring migration. However, intense anthropogenic activity in the region, which is expanding rapidly at present, makes migrants vulnerable to a multitude of obstacles and increasingly fragments and alters these habitats. Understanding the timing of migrants' overwater arrivals has biological value for expanding our understanding of migration ecology relative to decision‐making for nonstop flights, and is imperative for advancing conservation of this critical region through the identification of key times in which to direct conservation actions (e.g. temporary halting of wind turbines, reduction of light pollution). We explored 10 years of weather surveillance radar data from five sites along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to quantify the daily timing and intensity of arriving trans‐Gulf migrants. On a daily scale, we found that migrant intensity peaked an average of nine hours after local sunrise, occurring earliest at easternmost sites. On a seasonal level, the greatest number of arrivals occurred between late April and early May, with peak intensity occurring latest at westernmost sites. Overall intensity of migration across all 10 years of data was greatest at the westernmost sites and decreased moving farther to the east. These findings emphasize the differential spatial and temporal patterns of use of the Gulf of Mexico region by migrating birds, information that is essential for improving our understanding of the ecology of trans‐Gulf migration and for supporting data‐driven approaches to conservation actions for the migratory birds passing through this critical region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overuse and expansion of artificial light at night (ALAN) has emerged from complex social, economic, and political factors, making it a societal problem that negatively impacts wildlife and people. We propose that a convergence research approach combining ecological forecasting with community engagement and public policy is needed to address this diverse societal problem. To begin this convergence research approach, we hosted a workshop to strengthen connections among key biodiversity‐oriented ALAN stakeholders and to better understand how stakeholder groups function across the United States through facilitated discussions. We have prioritized the input of stakeholders early in our research design by including them in the formulation of a national survey on public perceptions surrounding ALAN and received their input on existing ecological forecasting tools to improve those research products for their future use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organisms have been shifting their timing of life history events (phenology) in response to changes in the emergence of resources induced by climate change. Yet understanding these patterns at large scales and across long time series is often challenging. Here we used the US weather surveillance radar network to collect data on the timing of communal swallow and martin roosts and evaluate the scale of phenological shifts and its potential association with temperature. The discrete morning departures of these aggregated aerial insectivores from ground‐based roosting locations are detected by radars around sunrise. For the first time, we applied a machine learning algorithm to automatically detect and track these large‐scale behaviors. We used 21 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations in the Great Lakes region to quantify the phenology in roosting behavior of aerial insectivores at three spatial levels: local roost cluster, radar station, and across the Great Lakes region. We show that their peak roosting activity timing has advanced by 2.26 days per decade at the regional scale. Similar signals of advancement were found at the station scale, but not at the local roost cluster scale. Air temperature trends in the Great Lakes region during the active roosting period were predictive of later stages of roosting phenology trends (75% and 90% passage dates). Our study represents one of the longest‐term broad‐scale phenology examinations of avian aerial insectivore species responding to environmental change and provides a stepping stone for examining potential phenological mismatches across trophic levels at broad spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Measuring avian migration can prove challenging given the spatial scope and the diversity of species involved. No one monitoring technique provides all the pertinent measures needed to capture this macroscale phenomenon – emphasizing the need for data integration. Migration phenology is a key metric characterizing large‐scale migration dynamics and has been successfully quantified using weather surveillance radar (WSR) data and community science observations. Separately, both platforms have their limitations and measure different aspects of bird migration. We sought to make a formal comparison of the migration phenology estimates derived from WSR and eBird data – of which we predict a positive correlation. Location: Contiguous United States. Time period: 2002–2018. Major taxa studied: Migratory birds. Methods: We estimated spring and autumn migration phenology at 143 WSR stations aggregated over a 17‐year period (2002–2018), which we contrast with eBird‐based estimates of spring and autumn migration phenology for 293 nocturnally migrating bird species at the 143 WSR stations. We compared phenology metrics derived from all species and WSR stations combined, for species in three taxonomic orders (Anseriformes, Charadriiformes and Passeriformes), and for WSR stations in three North American migration flyways (western, central and eastern). Results: We found positive correlations between WSR and eBird‐based estimates of migration phenology and differences in the strength of correlations among taxonomic orders and migration flyways. The correlations were stronger during spring migration, for Passeriformes, and generally for WSR stations in the eastern flyway. Autumn migration showed weaker correlation, and in Anseriformes correlations were weakest overall. Lastly, eBird‐based estimates slightly preceded those derived from WSR in the spring, but trailed WSR in the autumn, suggesting that the two data sources measure different components of migration phenology. Main conclusions We highlight the complementarity of these two approaches, but also reveal strong taxonomic and geographic differences in the relationships between the platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Two important environmental hazards for nocturnally migrating birds are artificial light at night (ALAN) and air pollution, with ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) considered to be especially harmful. Nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN during seasonal migration, which could increase exposure to PM2.5. Here, we examine PM2.5 concentrations and PM2.5 trends and the spatial correlation between ALAN and PM2.5 within the geographical ranges of the world's nocturnally migrating birds. Location: Global. Time period: 1998–2018. Major taxa studied: Nocturnally migrating birds. Methods: We intersected a global database of annual mean PM2.5 concentrations over a 21‐year period (1998–2018) with the geographical ranges (breeding, non‐breeding and regions of passage) of 225 nocturnally migrating bird species in three migration flyways (Americas, n = 143; Africa–Europe, n = 36; and East Asia–Australia, n = 46). For each species, we estimated PM2.5 concentrations and trends and measured the correlation between ALAN and PM2.5, which we summarized by season and flyway. Results: Correlations between ALAN and PM2.5 were significantly positive across all seasons and flyways. The East Asia–Australia flyway had the strongest ALAN–PM2.5 correlations within regions of passage, the highest PM2.5 concentrations across all three seasons and the strongest positive PM2.5 trends on the non‐breeding grounds and within regions of passage. The Americas flyway had the strongest negative air pollution trends on the non‐breeding grounds and within regions of passage. The breeding grounds had similarly negative air pollution trends within the three flyways. Main conclusions: The combined threats of ALAN and air pollution are greatest and likely to be increasing within the East Asia–Australia flyway and lowest and likely to be decreasing within the Americas and Africa–Europe flyways. Reversing PM2.5 trends in the East Asia–Australia flyway and maintaining negative PM2.5 trends in the Americas and Africa–Europe flyways while reducing ALAN levels would likely be beneficial for the nocturnally migrating bird populations in each region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many migratory species have experienced substantial declines that resulted from rapid and massive expansions of human structures and activities, habitat alterations and climate change. Migrants are also recognized as an integral component of biodiversity and provide a multitude of services and disservices that are relevant to human agriculture, economy and health. The plethora of recently published studies reflects the need for better fundamental knowledge on migrations and for better management of their ecological and human‐relevant effects. Yet, where are we in providing answers to fundamental questions and societal challenges? Engaging a broad network of researchers worldwide, we used a horizon‐scan approach to identify the most important challenges which need to be overcome in order to gain a fuller understanding of migration ecology, and which could be addressed using radar aeroecological and macroecological approaches. The top challenges include both long‐standing and novel topics, ranging from fundamental information on migration routes and phenology, orientation and navigation strategies, and the multitude of effects migrants may have on resident communities, to societal challenges, such as protecting or preventing migrant services and disservices, and the conservation of migrants in the face of environmental changes. We outline these challenges, identify the urgency of addressing them and the primary stakeholders – researchers, policy makers and practitioners, or funders of research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]