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Changes in phenology are a common response to climate change, but their impact on population dynamics is often ambiguous and at‐risk species are omitted from most analyses.We assessed the relationship between change in abundance and change in phenology for 114 butterfly populations of 31 at‐risk species from five families in 10 US states. We used data from Pollard‐walk and similar monitoring programmes for which count data were collected on multiple occasions per year. We also collected information from managers on site‐level management interventions.To estimate abundance, we first fit separate smoothing splines for each species at each site. Yearly abundance was estimated as the area under the activity curve for that year, and from this, we estimated abundance trends over the period for which we had population data. Phenological shifts were measured as the changes in median activity date, beginning of flight season, duration of flight season and phenological constancy (negative of the magnitude of trends in median activity date). We also evaluated the association of ecological traits (voltinism, diet breadth, position within geographic range, ecoregion, overwintering stage and seasonality) and management (proportion of years with interventions) with trends in abundance and in phenology.Across all populations, the estimated trend in abundance was −0.085, equivalent to an 8.1% decline/year. Positive trends in abundance were associated with smaller shifts in the median flight date (higher constancy). We also found strong associations between trends in abundance and management interventions, with increased management associated with increasing abundance trends. In general, ecological traits were not strongly associated with trends in phenology or trends in abundance.Synthesis and applications: Populations with less phenological constancy are more likely to be rapidly declining and populations with more frequent management interventions are increasing. These results suggest that one key outcome of management interventions may be to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change, which in turn may contribute to higher population growth. These results also imply that managers may need to alter the timing of appropriate management to synchronize with activities of at‐risk species as species shift their phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat restoration frequently focuses on reaching an idealized steady state, but this is unrealistic for disturbance‐dependent ecosystems where temporal variability is inherent and habitat conditions are expected to fluctuate. Understanding the ways in which the outcomes of restoration change over time in disturbance‐dependent ecosystems can better inform adaptive management plans and increase the likelihood that restoration efforts will be effective. We conducted a decade‐long restoration experiment to test how restoration efforts to increase disturbance levels impact habitat quality and populations of an endangered butterfly over time. We show that changes in plant communities as a response to disturbance vary depending on time since restoration, with target host plants initially increasing and peaking several years postrestoration but then declining. In the absence of further disturbance, butterfly population sizes follow a similar pattern, with population declines concurrent with declines in host plants. Due to this nonlinear response, management actions within disturbance‐dependent ecosystems need to include long‐term monitoring in order to accurately capture changes in habitat response, as well as active, adaptive planning that shifts according to current system stability. Restoration efforts within these dynamic habitats are more likely to succeed when temporal variability is explicitly tracked and multiple cycles of restoration are considered as part of management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As habitat loss and fragmentation, urbanization, and global climate change accelerate, conservation of rare ecosystems increasingly relies on human intervention. However, any conservation strategy is vulnerable to unpredictable, catastrophic events. Whether active management increases or decreases a system's resilience to these events remains unknown. Following Hurricane Irma's landfall in our habitat restoration study sites, we found that rare ecosystems with active, human‐imposed management suffered less damage in a hurricane's path than unmanaged systems. At the center of Irma's landfall, we found Croton linearis' (a locally rare plant that is the sole host for two endangered butterfly species) survival and population growth rates in the year of the hurricane were higher in previously managed plots than in un‐managed controls. In the periphery of Irma's circulation, the effect of prior management was stronger than that of the hurricane. Maintaining the historical disturbance regime thus increased the resilience of the population to major hurricane disturbance. As climate change increases the probability and intensity of severe hurricanes, human management of disturbance‐adapted landscapes will become increasingly important for maintaining populations of threatened species in a storm's path. Doing nothing will accelerate extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]