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The ecological integrity of US national parks and other protected areas are under threat in the Anthropocene. For Yellowstone National Park (YNP), the impacts that global change has already had on the park's capacity to sustain its large migratory herds of wild ungulates is incompletely understood. Here we examine how two understudied components of global change, the historical increase in atmospheric CO2 and the spread of nonnative, invasive plant species, may have altered the capacity of YNP to provide forage for ungulates over the last 200‐plus years. We performed two experiments: (1) a growth chamber study that determined the growth rates of important invasive and native YNP grasses that are forages for ungulates under preindustrial (280 ppm) versus modern (410 ppm) CO2 levels and (2) a field study that compared the effect of defoliation (clipping) on the shoot growth of invasive and native mesic grassland plants under ambient CO2 conditions in 2019. The growth chamber experiment revealed that modern CO2 increased the growth rates of both invasive and native grasses, and invasive grasses grew faster regardless of CO2 conditions. The field results showed a continuum of positive to negative responses of shoot growth to defoliation, with a subgroup of invasive species responding most positively. Altogether the results indicated that the historical increase in CO2 and the spread of invasive species, some of which were planted to provide forage for ungulates in the early and mid‐1900s, have likely increased the capacity of forage production in YNP. However, rising CO2 has also resulted in regional warming and increased aridity in YNP, which will likely reduce grassland productivity. The challenge for global change biologists and park managers is to determine how competing components of global change have already affected and will increasingly affect forage dynamics and the sustainability of Yellowstone's iconic ungulate herds in the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dietary DNA metabarcoding enables researchers to identify and characterize trophic interactions with a high degree of taxonomic precision. It is also sensitive to sources of bias and contamination in the field and laboratory. One of the earliest and most common strategies for dealing with such sensitivities has been to remove all low‐abundance sequences and conduct ecological analyses based on the presence or absence of food taxa. Although this step is now often perceived to be necessary, evidence of its sufficiency is lacking and more attention to the risk of introducing other errors is needed. Using computer simulations, we demonstrate that common strategies to remove low‐abundance sequences can erroneously eliminate true dietary sequences in ways that impact downstream inferences. Using real data from well‐studied wildlife populations in Yellowstone National Park, we further show how these strategies can markedly alter the composition of dietary profiles in ways that scale‐up to obscure ecological interpretations about dietary generalism, specialism, and composition. Although the practice of removing low‐abundance sequences may continue to be a useful strategy to address research questions that focus on a subset of relatively abundant foods, its continued widespread use risks generating misleading perceptions about the structure of trophic networks. Researchers working with dietary DNA metabarcoding data—or similar data such as environmental DNA, microbiomes, or pathobiomes—should be aware of drawbacks and consider alternative bioinformatic, experimental, and statistical solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the functional response of predators is commonly measured, recent work has revealed that the age and sex composition of prey killed is often a better predictor of prey population dynamics because the reproductive value of adult females is usually higher than that of males or juveniles.Climate is often an important mediating factor in determining the composition of predator kills, but we currently lack a mechanistic understanding of how the multiple facets of climate interact with prey abundance and demography to influence the composition of predator kills.Over 20 winters, we monitored 17 wolf packs in Yellowstone National Park and recorded the sex, age and nutritional condition of kills of their dominant prey—elk—in both early and late winter periods when elk are in relatively good and relatively poor condition, respectively.Nutritional condition (as indicated by per cent marrow fat) of wolf‐killed elk varied markedly with summer plant productivity, snow water equivalent (SWE) and winter period. Moreover, marrow was poorer for wolf‐killed bulls and especially for calves than it was for cows.Wolf prey composition was influenced by a complex set of climatic and endogenous variables. In early winter, poor plant growth in either year t or t − 1, or relatively low elk abundance, increased the odds of wolves killing bulls relative to cows. Calves were most likely to get killed when elk abundance was high and when the forage productivity they experienced in utero was poor. In late winter, low SWE and a relatively large elk population increased the odds of wolves killing calves relative to cows, whereas low SWE and poor vegetation productivity 1 year prior together increased the likelihood of wolves killing a bull instead of a cow.Since climate has a strong influence on whether wolves prey on cows (who, depending on their age, are the key reproductive components of the population) or lower reproductive value of calves and bulls, our results suggest that climate can drive wolf predation to be more or less additive from year to year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prey switching occurs when a generalist predator kills disproportionately more of an abundant prey species and correspondingly spares a rarer species. Although this behaviour is a classic stabilizing mechanism in food web models, little is known about its operation in free-living systems which often include dangerous prey species that resist predation., We used long-term (1995-2015) data from a large mammal system in northern Yellowstone National Park, USA, to understand how prey preference of a wild, generalist predator ( Canis lupus) responds to a shift in prey species evenness involving rising numbers of dangerous prey ( Bison bison) and dropping numbers of relatively safer prey ( Cervus elaphus)., Contrary to the prey switching hypothesis, wolves attacked and killed disproportionately more of the rarer, but safer, species. Wolves maintained a strong preference against bison even when this species was nearly twice as abundant as elk. [Correction added after online publication on 26 April 2017: 'more than' changed to 'nearly']. There was also evidence that wolves were increasingly averse to hunting bison as relative bison abundance increased., Wolves seldom hunted bison because capture success was limited to a narrow set of conditions: larger packs (>11 wolves) chasing smaller herds (10-20 bison) with calves. Wolves scavenged bison carrion instead and did so more frequently as bison abundance increased., Our study demonstrates the overarching importance of prey vulnerability to understanding the prey preferences of generalist predators in ecological communities with dangerous prey. The formidable defences of such prey diminish the potential for switching and its stabilizing influence on population dynamics. In these communities, shifts from hunting to scavenging are perhaps more likely than shifts in prey preference. The assumption of switching may therefore overestimate the stability of multi-prey systems that include dangerous prey species., A is available for this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bison (Bison bison) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis (Brucella abortus) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state‐space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency‐dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density‐dependent model in predicting out‐of‐sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency‐dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr−1. The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio (R0) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five‐year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30‐fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short‐term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal availability of food resources is an important factor shaping the life-history strategies of organisms. During times of nutritional restriction, physiological trade-offs can induce periods of immune suppression, thereby increasing susceptibility to infectious disease. Our goal was to provide a conceptual framework describing how the endemic level bovine brucellosis ( Brucella abortus) may be maintained in Yellowstone bison based on the seasonality of food resources and the life-history strategies of the host and pathogen. Our analysis was based on active B. abortus infection (measured via bacterial culture), nutritional indicators (measured as metabolites and hormones in plasma), and carcass measurements of 402 slaughtered bison. Data from Yellowstone bison were used to investigate (1) whether seasonal changes in diet quality affect nutritional condition and coincide with the reproductive needs of female bison; (2) whether active B. abortus infection and infection intensities vary with host nutrition and nutritional condition; and (3) the evidence for seasonal changes in immune responses, which may offer protection against B. abortus, in relation to nutritional condition. Female bison experienced a decline in nutritional condition during winter as reproductive demands of late gestation increased while forage quality and availability declined. Active B. abortus infection was negatively associated with bison age and nutritional condition, with the intensity of infection negatively associated with indicators of nutrition (e.g., dietary protein and energy) and body weight. Data suggest that protective cell-mediated immune responses may be reduced during the B. abortus transmission period, which coincides with nutritional insufficiencies and elevated reproductive demands during spring. Our results illustrate how seasonal food restriction can drive physiological trade-offs that suppress immune function and create infection and transmission opportunities for pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary 1. Disease management along the boundaries of wildlife reserves is a growing conservation problem worldwide, as infected wildlife can migrate outside protected areas and pose a threat to livestock and human health. The bison Bison bison population in Yellowstone National Park has long been infected with Brucella abortus, but culling of Yellowstone bison to prevent transmission to cattle has been ineffective at reducing brucellosis infection. This management strategy is negatively affecting long-term bison conservation because of difficulties in diagnosing actively infected animals. 2. We integrated age-specific serology and B. abortus culture results from slaughtered Yellowstone bison to estimate probabilities of active brucellosis infection using a Bayesian framework. Infection probabilities were associated with age in young bison (0-5 years old) and with elevated antibody levels in older bison (>5 years old). Our results indicate that Yellowstone bison acquire B. abortus infection early in life but typically recover as they grow older. 3. A tool was developed to allow bison management to better reflect the probability that particular animals are infective, with the aim of conserving Yellowstone bison while reducing the risk of brucellosis transmission to cattle. Combining selective removal of infectious bison with additional management practices, such as vaccination, has the potential to advance an effective brucellosis reduction programme. 4. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that active B. abortus infection in Yellowstone bison is age dependent, which allows true infection probabilities to be estimated based on age and quantitative diagnostic tests. These findings have important application to disease management worldwide where accurate diagnostic tests for wildlife are unavailable. Estimation of true infection probabilities can replace culling practices that conflict with wildlife conservation. The ability to identify infective individuals can improve management practices that support conservation, particularly when human health is at risk or endangered wildlife species are involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]