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Aim: To evaluate the impact of antiplatelet therapy (APT)on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality following its treatment. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials Databases. Two HCC clinical settings were explored: (i) incidence, and (ii) death after any HCC treatment. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated to compare the pooled data between patients who received or did not receive APT. Results: A total of 20 studies were identified, of whom 15 focused on HCC incidence, including 2,685,009 patients, and five on post‐treatment death, including 3281 patients. APT was associated with an overall reduced risk of HCC incidence (OR: 0.63; 95%CI = 0.51–0.79; p < 0.001) as well as of post‐treatment mortality (OR: 0.54; 95%CI = 0.35–0.83; p = 0.006). Conclusions: Current data suggest that APT correlated with higher HCC incidence and poor overall survival following tumour treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Patients with overt or occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection receiving immunosuppressive treatments have a wide risk of HBV reactivation (HBVr). We performed meta-analysis with decision curve analyses (DCA) to estimate the risk of HBVr in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) receiving immunosuppressive treatments., Approach and Results: Studies were identified through literature search until October 2022. Pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed according to underlying disease and immunosuppressive treatments. DCA was used to identify the threshold probability associated with the net benefit of antiviral prophylaxis in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients. We selected 68 studies (40 retrospective and 28 prospective), including 8034 patients with HBsAg negative anti-HBc positive. HBVr was 4% (95% CI 3%-6%) in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients, with a significantly high heterogeneity (I 2 69%; p < .01). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) by DCA ranged from 8 to 24 for chemotherapy plus rituximab, from 12 to 24 for targeted therapies in cancer patients and from 13 to 39 for immune-mediated diseases. Net benefit was small for monoclonal antibodies., Conclusions: Our DCA in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients provided evidence that NA prophylaxis is strongly recommended in patients treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab and could be appropriate in patients with cancer treated with targeted therapies and in patients with immune-mediated diseases. Finally, in patients with cancer treated with monoclonal antibodies or with chemotherapy without rituximab, the net benefit is even lower., (© 2024 The Author(s). Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Chronic hepatitis D virus (HDV) often leads to end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Comprehensive data pertaining to large populations with HDV and HCC are missing, therefore we sought to assess the characteristics, management, and outcome of these patients, comparing them to patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection., Methods: We analysed the Italian Liver Cancer database focusing on patients with positivity for HBV surface antigen and anti-HDV antibodies (HBV/HDV, n = 107) and patients with HBV infection alone (n = 588). Clinical and oncological characteristics, treatment, and survival were compared in the two groups., Results: Patients with HBV/HDV had worse liver function [Model for End-stage Liver Disease score: 11 vs. 9, p < .0001; Child-Turcotte-Pugh score: 7 vs. 5, p < .0001] than patients with HBV. HCC was more frequently diagnosed during surveillance (72.9% vs. 52.4%, p = .0002), and the oncological stage was more frequently Milan-in (67.3% vs. 52.7%, p = .005) in patients with HBV/HDV. Liver transplantation was more frequently performed in HBV/HDV than in HBV patients (36.4% vs. 9.5%), while the opposite was observed for resection (8.4% vs. 20.1%, p < .0001), and in a competing risk analysis, HBV/HDV patients had a higher probability of receiving transplantation, independently of liver function and oncological stage. A trend towards longer survival was observed in patients with HBV/HDV (50.4 vs. 44.4 months, p = .106)., Conclusions: In patients with HBV/HDV, HCC is diagnosed more frequently during surveillance, resulting in a less advanced cancer stage in patients with more deranged liver function than HBV alone. Patients with HBV/HDV have a heightened benefit from liver transplantation, positively influencing survival., (© 2024 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is common in patients treated with liver resection (LR). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and preoperative predictors of non-transplantable recurrence in patients with single HCC ≤5 cm treated with frontline LR., Methods: From the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database, 512 patients receiving frontline LR for single HCC ≤5 cm were retrieved. Incidence and predictors of recurrence beyond Milan criteria (MC) and up-to-seven criteria were compared between patients with HCC <4 and ≥4 cm., Results: During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, the overall recurrence rate was 55.9%. In the ≥4 cm group, a significantly higher proportion of patients recurred beyond MC at first recurrence (28.9% vs. 14.1%; p < 0.001) and overall (44.4% vs. 25.2%; p < 0.001). Similar results were found considering recurrence beyond up-to-seven criteria. Compared to those with larger tumours, patients with HCC <4 cm had a longer recurrence-free survival and overall survival. HCC size ≥4 cm and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LR were independent predictors of recurrence beyond MC (and up-to-seven criteria). In the subgroup of patients with available histologic information (n = 354), microvascular invasion and microsatellite lesions were identified as additional independent risk factors for non-transplantable recurrence., Conclusions: Despite the high recurrence rate, LR for single HCC ≤5 cm offers excellent long-term survival. Non-transplantable recurrence is predicted by HCC size and AFP levels, among pre-operatively available variables. High-risk patients could be considered for frontline LT or listed for transplantation even before recurrence., (© 2023 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Information about the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in patients with liver cancer is lacking. This study characterizes the outcomes and mortality risk in this population., Methods: Multicentre retrospective, cross-sectional, international study of liver cancer patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection registered between February and December 2020. Clinical data at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and outcomes were registered., Results: Two hundred fifty patients from 38 centres were included, 218 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 32 with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). The median age was 66.5 and 64.5 years, and 84.9% and 21.9% had cirrhosis in the HCC and iCCA cohorts respectively. Patients had advanced cancer stage at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis in 39.0% of the HCC and 71.9% of the iCCA patients. After a median follow-up of 7.20 (IQR: 1.84-11.24) months, 100 (40%) patients have died, 48% of the deaths were SARS-CoV-2-related. Forty (18.4%) HCC patients died within 30-days. The death rate increase was significantly different according to the BCLC stage (6.10% [95% CI 2.24-12.74], 11.76% [95% CI 4.73-22.30], 20.69% [95% CI 11.35-31.96] and 34.52% [95% CI 17.03-52.78] for BCLC 0/A, B, C and D, respectively; p = .0017). The hazard ratio was 1.45 (95% CI 0.49-4.31; p = .5032) in BCLC-B versus 0/A, and 3.13 (95% CI 1.29-7.62; p = .0118) in BCLC-C versus 0/A in the competing risk Cox regression model. Nineteen out of 32 iCCA (59.4%) died, and 12 deaths were related to SARS-CoV-2 infection., Conclusions: This is the largest cohort of liver cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. It characterizes the 30-day mortality risk of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients with HCC during this period., (© 2022 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Aim: Lenvatinib is a standard of care option in first-line therapy of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In the present study, we aim to identify, in patients with HCC treated with lenvatinib, a possible association between occurrence and grading of adverse events (AEs) and outcome., Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 606 Japanese and Italian patients treated with lenvatinib in first-line setting and investigated the possible correlation between the onset of AEs, toxicity grade (G) and outcome measures such as overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS)., Results: The appearance of arterial hypertension G ≥ 2 independently predicted prolonged OS [hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.93, P = .0188], whereas decreased appetite G ≥ 2 independently predicted decreased OS (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.25-2.32, P = .0007) by multivariate analysis. Appearance of hand-foot skin reaction independently predicted prolonged PFS (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.93, P = .0149), whereas decreased appetite G ≥ 2 predicted decreased PFS (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.04-1.77, P = .0277)., Conclusions: Our main findings are that the occurrence of arterial hypertension G ≥ 2 is a predictor of longer survival, whereas decreased appetite G ≥ 2 predicts for a poor prognosis. A careful management of AEs under lenvatinib treatment for HCC is required, to improve patients' quality of life, minimize the need for treatment discontinuation and achieve optimal outcome., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: The risk of progression of indeterminate observations to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antivirals (DAA) is still undetermined. To assess whether DAA therapy changes the risk of progression of observations with low (LR-2), intermediate (LR-3) and high (LR-4) probability for HCC in cirrhotic patients and to identify predictors of progression., Methods: This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients treated with DAA who achieved sustained virological response between 2015 and 2019. A total of 68 patients had pre-DAA indeterminate observations and at least six months CT/MRI follow-up before and after DAA. Two radiologists reviewed CT/MRI studies to categorize observations according to the LI-RADSv2018 and assess the evolution on subsequent follow-ups. Predictors of evolutions were evaluated by using the Cox proportional hazard model, Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test., Results: A total of 109 untreated observations were evaluated, including 31 (28.4%) LR-2, 67 (61.5%) LR-3 and 11 (10.1%) LR-4. During a median follow-up of 41 months, 17.4% and 13.3% of observations evolved to LR-5 or LR-M and LR-5, before and after DAA respectively (P = .428). There was no difference in rate of progression of neither LR-2 (P = 1.000), LR-3 (P = .833) or LR-4 (P = .505). At multivariate analysis, only initial LI-RADS category was an independent predictor of progression to LR-5 or LR-M for all observations (hazard ratio 6.75, P < .001), and of progression to LR-5 after DAA (hazard ratio 4.34, P = .047)., Conclusions: DAA therapy does not increase progression of indeterminate observations to malignant categories. The initial LI-RADS category is an independent predictor of observations upgrade., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background& Aims: Time to progression (TTP) and progression-free survival (PFS) are commonly used as surrogate endpoints in oncology trials. We aimed to assess the surrogacy relationship of TTP and PFS with overall survival (OS) in studies of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) by innovative methods., Methods: A search of databases for studies of TACE for u-HCC reporting both OS and TTP or PFS was performed. Individual patient data were extracted from TTP/PFS and OS Kaplan-Meier curves of TACE arms. Pooled median TTP and OS were obtained from random-effect model. The surrogate relationships of hazard ratios (HRs) and median TTP for OS were evaluated by the coefficient of determination R 2 ., Results: We identified 13 studies comparing TACE vs systemic therapy or vs TACE plus systemic therapy and including 1932 TACE-treated patients. Pooled median OS was 11.2 months (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 7.9-17.8), and pooled median TTP was 5.4 months (95%CI 3.8-8.0). Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for both outcomes. The correlation between HR TTP and HR OS was moderate (R 2  = 0.65. 95%CI 0.08-0.81). R 2 value was 0.04 (95%CI 0.00-0.35) between median TTP and median OS., Conclusion: In studies of TACE for u-HCC, the surrogate relationship of radiology-based endpoints with OS is moderate. Multiple endpoints including hepatic decompensation, macrovascular invasion and extrahepatic spread are needed for future trials comparing systemic therapies or combination of TACE with systemic therapies vs TACE alone., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Aims: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing in most areas of the world. This study aimed at updating the changing scenario of aetiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of HCC in Italy during the last 15 years., Methods: Retrospective analysis of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database included 6034 HCC patients managed in 23 centres from 2004 to 2018. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018)., Results: The main results were: (i) a progressive patient ageing; (ii) a progressive increase of non-viral cases and, particularly, of 'metabolic' and 'metabolic + alcohol' HCCs; (iii) a slightly decline of cases diagnosed under surveillance, but with an incremental use of the semiannual schedule; (iv) a favourable cancer stage migration; (v) an increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) an improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients) in the last calendar period, particularly in viral patients; (viii) a large gap between the number of potential candidates (according to oncologic criteria and age) to liver transplant and that of transplanted patients., Conclusions: During the last 15 years several aspects of HCC scenario have changed, as well as its management. The improvement in patient survival observed in the last period was likely because of a larger use of thermal ablation with respect to the less effective alcohol injection and to an improved management of intermediate stage patients., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is classified as early (BCLC A) irrespective of its size, even though controversies still exist regarding staging and treatment of large tumours. We aimed at evaluating the appropriate staging and treatment for large (>5 cm) monofocal (HCC)., Methods: From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 924 patients with small early monofocal HCC (2-5 cm; SEM-HCC), 163 patients with larger tumours (>5 cm; LEM-HCC) and 1048 intermediate stage patients (BCLC B)., Results: LEM-HCC patients had a worse overall survival (OS) than SEM-HCC (31.0 vs 49.0 months; P < .0001), and this was confirmed at multivariate analysis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.05; P < .0001). The small difference in OS between LEM-HCC and BCLC B patients (31.0 vs 27.0 months; P = .03) disappeared in the multivariate model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.25; P = .89). In all monofocal tumours, treatment was the strongest independent predictor of survival, with a progressively decreasing survival benefit moving from "curative" to "palliative" therapies. The survival of resected patients with LEM-HCC was significantly shorter than that of SEM-HCC (44.0 vs 78.0 months; P = .002), but liver resection provided the highest survival benefit in both groups compared to other treatments., Conclusions: Monofocal HCC larger than 5 cm should not be staged as BCLC A and either a different staging system or a different subgrouping of patients (e.g. BCLC AB) should be used. Liver resection, if feasible, remains the recommended treatment for all these patients., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients., Patients and Methods: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival., Results: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage., Conclusion: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Direct acting antivirals stabilize or improve liver function in the majority of patients with hepatitis C virus cirrhosis. Hepatic decompensation is the main driver of death of patients with early, successfully treated hepatocellular carcinoma superimposed to cirrhosis. Treatment with direct acting antivirals could improve the prognosis of these subjects, independently from the subsequent course of hepatocellular carcinoma, if the efficacy in obtaining viral clearance is as high as in patients without a history of hepatocellular carcinoma, and if the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence is unaffected. When dealing with hepatocellular carcinoma patients, direct acting antivirals can be indicated in two different settings: (a) subjects in which hepatocellular carcinoma has been already successfully treated ("cured" hepatocellular carcinoma), or (b) subjects whose hepatocellular carcinoma is still untreated or untreatable ("active" hepatocellular carcinoma). Although there are abundant data on "cured" hepatocellular carcinoma, evidence supporting treatment decisions in patients with "active" hepatocellular carcinoma is at best scarce and controversial, since these patients as well as patients with hepatocellular carcinoma listed for liver transplantation are usually excluded from treatment., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology., Methods: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features., Results: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival., Conclusions: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Data on HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early recurrence in patients whose HCC was previously cured, and subsequently treated by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), are equivocal., Aim: To assess the risk of HCC early recurrence after DAAs exposure in a large prospective cohort of HCV-cirrhotic patients with previous successfully treated HCC, also looking for risk factors for cancer early recurrence., Methods: We enrolled 143 consecutive patients with complete response after curative treatment of HCC, subsequently treated with DAAs and monitored by the web-based RESIST-HCV database. Clinical, biological, and virological data were collected. The primary endpoint was the probability of HCC early recurrence from DAA starting by Kaplan-Meier method., Results: Eighty-six per cent of patients were in Child-Pugh class A and 76% of patients were BCLC A. Almost all patients (96%) achieved sustained virological response. Twenty-four HCC recurrences were observed, with nodular or infiltrative pattern in 83% and 17% of patients, respectively. The 6-, 12- and 18-month HCC recurrence rates were 12%, 26.6% and 29.1%, respectively. Main tumour size and history of prior HCC recurrence were independent risk factors for HCC recurrence by Cox multivariate model., Conclusions: Probability of HCC early recurrence in patients who had HCC previously cured remains high, despite HCV eradication by DAAs. Risk was comparable but not higher to that reported in literature in DAA-untreated patients. Previous HCC recurrence and tumour size can be used to stratify the risk of HCC early recurrence. Further studies are needed to assess impact of DAAs on late recurrence and mortality., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Few studies examined the outcome of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis who developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The relative weight as determinant of death for cancer vs end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and the benefit of HCV eradication remain undefined. This multicentre, retrospective analysis evaluates overall survival (OS), rate of decompensation and tumour recurrence in compensated HCC patients treated with interferon (IFN) according to HCV status since HCC diagnosis., Methods: Two groups of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC were followed since HCC diagnosis: (i) compensated cirrhotics with prior sustained virological response (SVR) on IFN-based regimens (N=19); (ii) compensated cirrhotics without SVR (viraemic) (N=156)., Results: Over a median follow-up of 3.0 years since the onset of HCC, OS was longer for HCC patients with SVR than for viraemic patients (log-rank P=.004). The 5-year OS rate was 65.9% in patients with SVR vs 31.9% in viraemic patients. Similar trends were reported for hepatic decompensation (log-rank P=.01) and tumour recurrence (log-rank P=.01). These findings were confirmed at multivariable and propensity score analysis. At propensity analysis, 0/19 compensated patients with SVR died for ESLD vs 7/19 (37%) viraemic patients (P=.004). HCC mortality was similar in the two groups., Conclusions: Hepatocellular carcinoma patients with prior SVR and compensated cirrhosis at the time of tumour diagnosis have prolonged OS than viraemic patients. Given the lack of cirrhosis progression, no SVR patient ultimately died for ESLD while this condition appears the main cause of death among viraemic patients., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Determining risk for recurrence or survival after curative resection or ablation in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for stratifying patients according to expected outcomes in future studies of adjuvant therapy in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the recurrence and survival probabilities of HCV-related early HCC following complete response after potentially curative treatment and to identify predictors of recurrence and survival., Methods: Studies reporting time-dependent outcomes (HCC recurrence or death) after potentially curative treatment of HCV-related early HCC were identified in MEDLINE through May 2016. Data on patient populations and outcomes were extracted from each study by three independent observers and combined using a distribution-free summary survival curve. Primary outcomes were actuarial probabilities of recurrence and survival., Results: Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Pooled estimates of actuarial recurrence rates were 7.4% at 6 months and 47.0% at 2 years. Pooled estimates of actuarial survival rates were 79.8% at 3 years and 58.6% at 5 years. Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for all outcomes. By univariate meta-regression analyses, lower serum albumin, randomized controlled trial study design and follow-up were independently associated with higher recurrence risk, whereas tumour size and alpha-foetoprotein levels were associated with higher mortality., Conclusions: This meta-analysis showed that recurrence risk and survival are extremely variable in patients with successfully treated HCV-related HCC, providing a useful benchmark for indirect comparisons of the benefits of DAAs and for a correct design of randomized controlled trials in the adjuvant setting., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome., Methods: Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment., Results: 29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE., Conclusions: In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: In HCV-infected cirrhotic patients with successfully treated early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the time to HCC recurrence and the effects of sustained viral eradication (SVR) by interferon (IFN)-based or IFN-free regimens on HCC recurrence remain unclear., Aim: To perform an indirect comparison of time to recurrence (TTR) in patients with successfully treated early HCC and active HCV infection with those of patients with SVR by IFN-based and by IFN-free regimens., Methods: We evaluated 443 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage A/0 HCC who had a complete radiological response after curative resection or ablation. Active HCV infection was present in 328, selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group cohort; 58 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-free regimens after HCC cure, and 57 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-based regimens after HCC cure. Individual data of patients in the last two groups were extracted from available publications., Results: TTR by Kaplan-Meier curve was significantly lower in patients with active HCV infection compared with those with SVR both by IFN-free (P = 0.02) and by IFN-based (P < 0.001) treatments. TTR was similar in patients with SVR by IFN-free or by IFN-based (P = 0.49) strategies., Conclusion: In HCV-infected, successfully treated patients with early HCC, SVR obtained by IFN-based or IFN-free regimens significantly reduce tumour recurrence without differences related to the anti-viral strategy used., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: To develop an individual prognostic calculator for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE)., Methods: Data from two prospective databases, regarding 361 patients who received TACE as first-line therapy (2000-2012), were reviewed in order to refine available prognostic tools and to develop a continuous individual web-based prognostic calculator. Patients with neoplastic portal vein invasion were excluded from the analysis. The model was built following a bootstrap resampling procedure aimed at identifying prognostic predictors and by carrying out a 10-fold cross-validation for accuracy assessment by means of Harrell's c-statistic., Results: Number of tumours, serum albumin, serum total bilirubin, alpha-foetoprotein and maximum tumour size were selected as predictors of mortality following TACE with the bootstrap resampling technique. In the 10-fold cross-validation cohort, the model showed a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.649 (95% CI: 0.610-0.688), significantly higher than that of the Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score (0.589; 95% CI: 0.552-0.626; P = 0.001) and of the modified HAP-II score (0.611; 95% CI: 0.572-0.650; P = 0.005). Akaike's information criterion for the model was 2520; for the mHAP-II it was 2544 and for the HAP score it was 2554. A web-based calculator was developed for quick consultation at http://www.livercancer.eu/mhap3.html., Conclusions: The proposed individual prognostic model can provide an accurate prognostic prediction for each patient with unresectable HCC following treatment with TACE without class stratification. The availability of an online calculator can help physicians in daily clinical practice., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading aetiological factor of HCC in the western world where, overall, its incidence is increasing, despite data suggesting an initial drop in some areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate epidemiology, clinical features and survival of HCV-related HCC (HCV-HCC) in a wide time range in Italy., Methods: Multicentre retrospective study including 3695 patients prospectively recruited by the ITA.LI.CA group. Patients were classified into three subgroups according to aetiology (Group A[GA], pure HCV; Group B[GB], HCV + cofactors; and Group C[GC], non-HCV) and in 5 time cohorts (5 years each), according to the year of diagnosis. Age, gender, Child-Pugh score, modality of diagnosis, stage, presence of thrombosis/metastases, type of treatment and survival were analysed., Results: A total of 1801 GA patients, 445 GB and 1333 GC were recruited. The number of GA patients peaked in the 1996-2000, gradually dropping thereafter (P < 0.0001), as observed for GB (P < 0.0001). Age at diagnosis increased (P < 0.0001), while percentage of patients diagnosed during surveillance and stage improved only in GA (P = 0.02 and P = 0.003 respectively). The survival significantly increased over time particularly in GA (median 37 months) and was longer in GA than in GB and GC (P < 0.0001)., Conclusions: The prevalence of HCC-HCV is decreasing in Italy since 2001. HCV-HCC patients are older, more frequently diagnosed under surveillance and in an earlier stage. HCC survival improved in the last 15 years and is significantly higher in patients with HCV-HCC. We therefore expect a further drop in both incidence and mortality for HCV-HCC in the years to come., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)

Cirrhosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is the end stage of any chronic liver disease. Cancer, a leading cause of death worldwide, is a growing global health issue. There are limited data in the literature on the incidence, prevalence and management of non-hepatic cancers (NHC) in cirrhotic patients. The aim of this brief review was to underline the main concerns, pitfalls and warnings regarding practice for these patients. Survival of patients with compensated cirrhosis is significantly longer than that of decompensated cirrhosis and patients with NHC and in Child-Pugh class C should not be candidates for cytotoxic chemotherapy. It is important before starting cytotoxic chemotherapy to assess the aetiology and stage of liver disease and to screen these patients for portal hypertension and fluid retention. During cytotoxic chemotherapy, the effectiveness of cancer treatment, as well the appearance of early signs of hepatic decompensation, must be thoroughly monitored. Future phase 3 trial designs in oncology should include a share of patients with compensated cirrhosis to obtain specific information in this setting. Identification of tests able to measure the global degree of hepatic impairment caused by cirrhosis could help in the management of this particular clinical situation., (© 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)

Background: Transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is first-line treatment in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and rescue treatment after failure of radical treatments in early stage HCC. Prognostic tools for HCC using time-fixed Cox models may be unreliable in patients treated with TACE because time-varying predictors interact., Aim: To explore time-dependent variables as survival predictors in patients with HCC receiving TACE as first-line or second-line treatment., Methods: Eighty four consecutive patients with HCC (mean age 68; male gender 62%; Child-Pugh class: A n=73, B n=11; Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer class: A n=44, B n=24, C n=16) treated with TACE were enrolled. Clinical, laboratory and radiological follow-up data were collected from the time of first treatment. Time-fixed and time-dependent Cox analyses were done., Results: Overall survival rates were 89.6% (95% CI 82.5-97.2) at 12months, 58.8% (95% CI 46.2-74.9) at 24, 35.4% (95% CI 22.3-56.1) at 36 and 17.2% (95% CI 7.0-41.7) at 48months. Performance status (P<0.001), number of nodules (P<0.016) and prior therapy (P=0.017) were the only variables strongly linked to survival by time-fixed Cox model. Performance status (P<0.001), prior therapy (P=0.005), number of treatments (P=0.013), complete response after TACE (P=0.005) and bilirubin level (P<0.001) were associated with survival using a time-dependent Cox model., Conclusions: Survival after TACE is influenced most by performance status, complete response and bilirubin. Compared with the time-fixed models, a time-dependent Cox model has the potential to estimate a more precise prognosis in HCC patients treated with TACE., (© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Background: A major problem in assessing the likelihood of survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arises from a lack of models capable of predicting outcome accurately., Aim: To compare the ability of the Italian score (CLIP), the French classification (GRETCH) and the Barcelona (BCLC) staging system in predicting survival in patients with HCC., Methods: We included 406 consecutive patients with cirrhosis and HCC. Seventy-eight per cent of patients had hepatitis C. Independent predictors of survival were identified using the Cox model., Results: One-hundred and seventy-eight patients were treated, while 228 were untreated. The observed mortality was 60.1% in treated patients and 84.9% in untreated patients. Among treated patients, albumin, bilirubin and performance status were the only independent variables significantly associated with survival. Mortality was independently predicted by bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein and portal vein thrombosis in untreated patients. CLIP achieved the best discriminative capacity in the entire HCC cohort and in the advanced untreatable cases, while BCLC was the ablest in predicting survival in treated patients., Conclusions: Overall predictive ability of BCLC, CLIP and GRETCH staging systems was not satisfactory, and was not uniform for treated patients and untreated patients. None of the scoring systems provided confident prediction of survival in individual patients.