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Investigation files and court records of 282 disputed child-custody cases (San Diego, 1982) were coded and analyzed to determine predictors of judicial decision. Log-linear analysis of physical custody decisions as a function of factors contained in the files suggested that three categories of factors (mother, father, and child) were linked causally to a counselor's recommendation, which was linked subsequently to the judge's decision. Judicial decisions could be predicted accurately by a model that took very few factors into account. Only two factors directly affected the judge; counselor-recommendation and child preference. The major factor that influenced decisions was counselor recommendation. (60% of the cases); cases that lacked this recommendation were predicted by an inferential measure of the child's preference (15% of the cases). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When a decision making analysis is applied to key decisions within the criminal justice system, e.g., bail, sentencing, and plea bargaining, a wide range of evidence suggests that the decision makers believe they follow policies other than those that actually guide their decisions; that the policies that are followed are often simple ones, involving only a few decision factors; and that the decision outcomes are often assigned to defendants in a reasonable manner but that, even so, the outcomes are often ineffective. Because many proposals for the reform of the criminal justice system are based on the testimony of decision makers and "experts" whose knowledge of the system is often flawed, it is unlikely that reforms will have a beneficial impact on criminal behavior until much more is known about the day-to-day decisions of judges, prosecutors, and probation officers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]