Search

The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap‐filled observation‐based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ∼60% larger in models (−0.72 vs. −0.44 PgC year−1, 1998–2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model‐product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid‐ and high‐latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time‐resolving observation‐based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2‐e year−1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2‐e year−1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2‐e year−1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%–60% in CO2‐equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. Plain Language Summary: The coastal ocean regulates greenhouse gases. It acts as a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but also releases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. This synthesis contributes to the second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) and provides a comprehensive view of the coastal air‐sea fluxes of these three greenhouse gases at the global scale. We use a multi‐faceted approach combining gap‐filled observation‐based products and ocean biogeochemical models. We show that the global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the coastal uptake of CO2 is ∼60% larger in models than in observation‐based products due to model‐product differences in seasonality. The coastal CO2 sink is strengthening but the magnitude of this strengthening is poorly constrained. We also find that the coastal emissions of N2O and CH4 counteract a substantial part of the effect of coastal CO2 uptake in the atmospheric radiative balance (by 30%–60% in CO2‐equivalents), highlighting the need to consider these three gases together to understand the influence of the coastal ocean on climate. Key Points: We synthesize air‐sea fluxes of CO2, nitrous oxide and methane in the global coastal ocean using observation‐based products and ocean modelsThe coastal ocean CO2 sink is 60% larger in ocean models than in observation‐based products due to systematic differences in seasonalityCoastal nitrous oxide and methane emissions offset 30%–60% of the CO2 coastal uptake in the net radiative balance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean coastal‐shelf‐slope ecosystem west of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a biologically productive region that could potentially act as a large sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The duration of the sea‐ice season in the WAP shows large interannual variability. However, quantifying the mechanisms by which sea ice impacts biological productivity and surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) remains a challenge due to the lack of data early in the phytoplankton growth season. In this study, we implemented a circulation, sea‐ice, and biogeochemistry model (MITgcm‐REcoM2) to study the effect of sea ice on phytoplankton blooms and surface DIC. Results were compared with satellite sea‐ice and ocean color, and research ship surveys from the Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. The simulations suggest that the annual sea‐ice cycle has an important role in the seasonal DIC drawdown. In years of early sea‐ice retreat, there is a longer growth season leading to larger seasonally integrated net primary production (NPP). Part of the biological uptake of DIC by phytoplankton, however, is counteracted by increased oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2. Despite lower seasonal NPP, years of late sea‐ice retreat show larger DIC drawdown, attributed to lower air‐sea CO2 fluxes and increased dilution by sea‐ice melt. The role of dissolved iron and iron limitation on WAP phytoplankton also remains a challenge due to the lack of data. The model results suggest sediments and glacial meltwater are the main sources in the coastal and shelf regions, with sediments being more influential in the northern coast. Plain Language Summary: Some coastal ocean areas of Antarctica, like the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), have high biological productivity, which indicates they could absorb more atmospheric CO2. Studying these regions is hard since weather, clouds and sea ice make satellite and cruise data collection challenging. Using models is an alternative to fill in the gaps in the data. In this study, we used an ocean model that simulates circulation, sea ice, biological productivity, and the nutrient cycle in the WAP to study how much sea ice and biology influence the carbon cycle. We find that in years when the ice season is long there is a smaller flux of carbon between ocean and atmosphere, and more dilution of the surface waters by sea ice melt. Although the amount of inorganic carbon in the surface ocean is low by the end of the productive season, this does not reflect more CO2 being taken up or more biological productivity. In years of shorter sea ice season, in contrast, the ocean takes up more atmospheric CO2 and has a longer productive season. This is because the surface ocean is exposed for longer, so gas transfer happens more easily and there is more light available for photosynthesis. Key Points: Longer growth season in years of early sea‐ice retreat show higher seasonally integrated NPP, despite lower chlorophyll in JanuarySea ice is important for DIC drawdown as it influences the duration of phytoplankton bloom, air‐sea CO2 fluxes, and dilution by meltwaterIn the WAP, sedimentary iron has a larger role in the northern coast and shelf, glacial meltwater likely the main source in the south [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean is chronically undersampled due to its remoteness, harsh environment, and sea ice cover. Ocean circulation models yield significant insight into key processes and to some extent obviate the dearth of data; however, they often underestimate surface mixed layer depth (MLD), with consequences for surface water‐column temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentration. In this study, a coupled circulation and sea ice model was implemented for the region adjacent to the West Antarctic Peninsula, a climatically sensitive region which has exhibited decadal trends towards higher ocean temperature, shorter sea ice season, and increasing glacial freshwater input, overlain by strong interannual variability. Hindcast simulations were conducted with different air‐ice drag coefficients and Langmuir circulation parameterizations to determine the impact of these factors on MLD. Including Langmuir circulation deepened the surface mixed layer, with the deepening being more pronounced in the shelf and slope regions. Optimal selection of an air‐ice drag coefficient also increased modeled MLD by similar amounts and had a larger impact in improving the reliability of the simulated MLD interannual variability. This study highlights the importance of sea ice volume and redistribution to correctly reproduce the physics of the underlying ocean, and the potential of appropriately parameterizing Langmuir circulation to help correct for biases towards shallow MLD in the Southern Ocean. The model also reproduces observed freshwater patterns in the West Antarctic Peninsula during late summer and suggests that areas of intense summertime sea ice melt can still show net annual freezing due to high sea ice formation during the winter. Key Points: Sea ice redistribution has a large impact on the mixed layer depth seasonality and interannual variability in the West Antarctic PeninsulaIn the West Antarctic Peninsula, areas of high summer sea ice melt can show net annual freezing due to high sea ice formation in winterIncluding a parameterization for Langmuir circulation based on entrainment below the mixed layer improves the simulated mixed layer depth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Gross photosynthetic activity by phytoplankton is directed to linear and alternative electron pathways that generate ATP, reductant, and fix carbon. Ultimately less than half is directed to net growth. Here we present a phytoplankton cell allocation model that explicitly represents a number of cell metabolic processes and functional pools with the goal of evaluating ATP and reductant demands as a function of light, nitrate, iron, oxygen, and temperature for diazotrophic versus nondiazotrophic growth. We employ model analogues of Synechoccocus and Crocosphaera watsonii, to explore the trade‐offs of diazotrophy over a range of environmental conditions. Model analogues are identical in construction, except for an iron quota associated with nitrogenase, an additional respiratory demand to remove oxygen in order to protect nitrogenase and an additional ATP demand to split dinitrogen. We find that these changes explain observed differences in growth rate and iron limitation between diazotrophs and nondiazotrophs. Oxygen removal imparted a significantly larger metabolic cost to diazotrophs than ATP demand for fixing nitrogen. Results suggest that diazotrophs devote a much smaller fraction of gross photosynthetic energy to growth than nondiazotrophs. The phytoplankton cell allocation model model provides a predictive framework for how photosynthate allocation varies with environmental conditions in order to balance cellular demands for ATP and reductant across phytoplankton functional groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30°S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NH x(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NH x(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NH x(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NH x within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7-23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NH x over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2-5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of ~6 Pg C yr−1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal and externally forced variability in oceanic oxygen (O[sub2]) are investigated on different spatiotemporal scales using a six-member ensemble from the National Center for Atmospheric Research CSM1 .4-carbon coupled climate model. The oceanic O[sub2] inventory is projected to decrease significantly in global warming simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries. The anthropogenically forced O[sub2] decrease is partly compensated by volcanic eruptions, which cause considerable interannual to decadal variability. Volcanic perturbations in oceanic oxygen concentrations gradually penetrate the ocean's top 500 m and persist for several years. While well identified on global scales, the detection and attribution of local O[sub2] changes to volcanic forcing is difficult because of unforced variability. Internal climate modes can substantially contribute to surface and subsurface O[sub2] variability. Variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific are associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indexes. Simulated decadal variability compares well with observed O[sub2] changes in the North Atlantic, suggesting that the model captures key mechanisms of late 20th century O[sub2] variability, but the model appears to underestimate variability in the North Pacific. Our results suggest that large interannual to decadal variations and limited data availability make the detection of human-induced O[sub2] changes currently challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results are presented of export production, dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved oxygen simulated by 12 global ocean models participating in the second phase of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project. A common, simple biogeochemical model is utilized in different coarse-resolution ocean circulation models. The model mean (±1σ) downward flux of organic matter across 75 m depth is 17 ± 6 Pg C yr-1. Model means of globally averaged particle export, the fraction of total export in dissolved form, surface semilabile dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and seasonal net outgassing (SNO) of oxygen are in good agreement with observation-based estimates, but particle export and surface DOC are too high in the tropics. There is a high sensitivity of the results to circulation, as evidenced by (1) the correlation of surface DOC and export with circulation metrics, including chlorofluorocarbon inventory and deep-ocean radiocarbon, (2) very large intermodel differences in Southern Ocean export, and (3) greater export production, fraction of export as DOM, and SNO in models with explicit mixed layer physics. However, deep-ocean oxygen, which varies widely among the models, is poorly correlated with other model indices. Cross-model means of several biogeochemical metrics show better agreement with observation-based estimates when restricted to those models that best simulate deep-ocean radiocarbon. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of physical processes in marine biogeochemical modeling and suggest that the development of circulation models can be accelerated by evaluating them with marine biogeochemical metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔCgasex, i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔCgasex, and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔCgasex. Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr-1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[1] Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 are estimated using a Green's function inversion method that combines data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean with information about ocean transport and mixing from a suite of Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimated fluxes owing to modeled transport and errors in the data, we employ 10 OGCMs and three scenarios representing biases in the data-based anthropogenic CO2 estimates. On the basis of the prescribed anthropogenic CO2 storage, we find a global uptake of 2.2 ± 0.25 Pg C yr-1, scaled to 1995. This error estimate represents the standard deviation of the models weighted by a CFC-based model skill score, which reduces the error range and emphasizes those models that have been shown to reproduce observed tracer concentrations most accurately. The greatest anthropogenic CO2 uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean and in the tropics. The flux estimates imply vigorous northward transport in the Southern Hemisphere, northward cross-equatorial transport, and equatorward transport at high northern latitudes. Compared with forward simulations, we find substantially more uptake in the Southern Ocean, less uptake in the Pacific Ocean, and less global uptake. The large-scale spatial pattern of the estimated flux is generally insensitive to possible biases in the data and the models employed. However, the global uptake scales approximately linearly with changes in the global anthropogenic CO2 inventory. Considerable uncertainties remain in some regions, particularly the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]