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Many emerging methods for ecological monitoring use passive monitoring techniques, which cannot always be used to identify the observed species with certainty. Digital aerial surveys of birds in marine areas are one such example of passive observation and they are increasingly being used to quantify the abundance and distribution of marine birds to inform impact assessments for proposed offshore wind developments. However, the uncertainty in species identification presents a major hurdle to determining the abundance and distribution of individual species., Using a novel analytical approach, we combined data from two surveys in the same area: aerial digital imagery that identified only 23% of individuals to species level and boat survey records that identified 95% of individuals to species level. The data sets were analysed to estimate the effects of environmental covariates on species density and to produce species-specific estimates of population size., For each digital aerial observation without certain species identification, randomized species assignments were generated using the observed species proportions from the boat surveys. For each species, we modelled several random realizations of species assignments and produced a density surface from the ensemble of models. The uncertainty from each stage of the process was propagated, so that final confidence limits accounted for all sources of uncertainty, including species identification., In the breeding season, several species had higher densities near colonies and this pattern was clearest for three auk species. Sandeel density was an important predictor of the density of several gull species., Synthesis and applications. This method shows it is possible to construct maps of species density in situations in which ecological observations cannot be identified to species level with certainty. The increasing use of passive detection methods is providing many more data sets with uncertain species identification and this method could be used with these data to produce species-specific abundance estimates. We discuss the advantages of this approach for estimating the abundance and distribution of birds in marine areas, particularly for quantifying the impacts of offshore renewable developments by making the estimates derived from the older digital surveys more comparable to the recently improved surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim British estuarine ecosystems support large populations of protected migratory waders. Understanding how wader communities vary spatially and how they may be changing temporally can greatly improve the understanding of these dynamic ecosystems. Here, we explore the variation in functional diversity (using a range of morphological and ecological traits) in order to identify the processes shaping wader communities on British estuaries and how these processes may be changing. Location England, Wales and Scotland. Methods We use national survey data (Wetland Bird Survey) from 1980/1981 to 2006/2007 winter to calculate functional diversity (FD) - an index that measures trait dispersion - in wader communities on 100 estuaries. We test for evidence of non-random patterns of diversity and explore the relative importance of two key processes, environmental filtering and competition, in shaping these communities. Results The observed FD was significantly and positively associated with species richness and to a lesser extent estuary area, followed by longitude. An increase in observed FD was observed since 1980, supported by a small but significant slope. In the majority of cases, changes in FD were mirrored by changes in species richness. Observed FD was on average lower than expected by chance, as indicated by a negative value of observed minus expected FD. However, this difference became less negative over time, with observed minus expected FD values increasing slightly, but significantly, over the study period. Main conclusions Wader FD varies across British estuaries, and the relative influence of the processes by which communities are structured appears to be changing through time. We discuss the potential drivers underlying these patterns and the importance of identifying such drivers for the protection of wader communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long-term studies. Here, using counts of waders ( Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest-scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ‘weighted centroids’ of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distributions of eight out of nine common species of waders (Charadrii) overwintering on UK estuaries have changed in association with recent climate change. These birds represent a high proportion of various populations from breeding grounds as far apart as Greenland to the west to high-arctic Russia to the east. During warmer winters, smaller proportions of seven species wintered in south-west Britain. The distributions of the smaller species show the greatest temperature dependence. The opposite was found for the largest species and no relationship was found for a particularly site-faithful species. In north-west Europe, the winter isotherms have a broadly north to south alignment, with the east being colder than the west. The average minimum winter temperatures across the UK having increased by about 1.5°C since the mid-1980s, the temperatures on the east coast during recent winters have been similar to those of the west coast during the mid-1980s. On average, estuaries on the east and south coasts of Britain have muddier sediments than those on the west coast and thus support a higher biomass of the invertebrate prey of waders. We suggest that, with global climatic change, the advantage gained by waders wintering in the milder west to avoid cold weather-induced mortality is diminished. Consequently, more choose to winter in the east and thus benefit from better foraging opportunities. The implications of these results are considered in terms of a site-based approach to wildlife protection used in Europe and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between weather and wader distributions on non-estuarine coasts is described and used to predict how future wader distributions may respond to climate change. The distributions of eight out of nine species of wader commonly wintering on the non-estuarine coasts of Britain altered between two similar surveys, in 1984/85 and 1997/98, that covered 78% and 38% of Britain's 12 594 km of non-estuarine coastline, respectively. These eight species moved at least in part either eastwards along the winter isotherms or northwards. These changes in distribution broadly coincide with a distributional shift towards the species’ respective breeding grounds and are correlated with the local winter weather over the period: increasingly mild extreme temperatures and changes in mean rainfall, mean wind speed and wind-chill. Based on the scenarios for Britain's climate in 2020 and 2080, it is predicted that the distributions of the waders will move away from the west. The non-estuarine coasts of Britain hold particularly high proportions of the international flyway populations of Ringed PloverCharadrius hiaticula, SanderlingCalidris alba, Purple SandpiperCalidris maritimaand Ruddy TurnstoneArenaria interpresthat are all expected to show continuing decline to 2080. Overwintering waders appear to be good indicators of the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Predictive models of animal distribution based on habitat can be used to assess the likely effects of changes in landuse on a species. In this study we developed a model of the distribution of buzzard nests in part of Argyll, Scotland. the model was tested on a further study site. 2. Habitat was described in terms of vegetation cover, derived from satellite imagery, and topography, using a digital terrain model to classify altitude, slope, aspect and ruggedness. This data base was incorporated into a Geographical Information System. 3. Environmental data, in the form of areas and boundary lengths of vegetation types and landscape classifications, were extracted from the data base for circular areas of various radii from the centre of 500 m grid cells covering each study area. We also included counts of buildings and lengths of roadways. 4. Both logistic regression analysis and discriminant function analysis were used to produce classification models, which assigned each grid cell a probability that it contained a buzzard nesting area. the best predictive model was based on median altitude, total boundary length between all vegetation categories, the amount of moorland and the length of boundary between pre-thicket forestry and open ground. 5. This model successfully reclassified 96⋅88% of grid cells in the areas from which it was developed and 82⋅35% in a test area. Previous studies have frequently predicted the distribution of species within the environment, but here we were able to predict the distribution of nesting areas within the distribution of a species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]