17 results on '"*POLITICAL statistics"'
Search Results
2. In Defense of Not Having a Data Set: A Call for Argument.
- Author
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BEASLEY, VANESSA B.
- Subjects
- *
METHODOLOGY , *POLITICAL science , *ACADEMIC debating , *PRESIDENTIAL messages , *POLITICAL statistics ,COMPUTERS in discourse analysis - Abstract
Instead of supporting the use of one standardized data set as proposed by Coe and Neumann, this response argues that scholars should continue to be required to construct arguments and offer justifications for what they are examining when they say they are analyzing presidential discourse, regardless of methodology. Two reasons are offered for this position. First, presidential communication is inherently difficult to define and/or delimit. Second, scholars of presidential discourse should be wary of the possible creation of a new 'canon' within their object of study. The response concludes by suggesting that even if Coe and Neumann's argument is persuasive to readers, we should be careful about promoting one data set over other possibilities. Our individual research questions should set the parameters for the data sets we use, and scholarship on presidential discourse only benefits from continued argumentation about what it is, why it matters, and how it might be best understood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
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3. Is Timing Everything? Retirement and Seat Maintenance in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- Author
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SWEARINGEN, C. DOUGLAS and JATKOWSKI, WALT
- Subjects
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ELECTION of legislators , *LEGISLATIVE bodies , *INCUMBENCY (Public officers) , *LOGISTIC regression analysis , *POLITICAL science research , *POLITICAL statistics , *POLITICAL parties , *ELECTIONS - Abstract
Literature on open-seat elections has focused on the individual attributes of a candidate and/or institutional arrangements. When a seat becomes an open contest could be a significant indicator as to how likely the incumbent party is able to maintain the seat. Examining data on open U.S. House seats from 1996 to 2008, we use OLS regression and logistic regression analysis, finding that time is a significant predictor for incumbent party fund-raising and seat maintenance. We conclude that political parties have an interest in encouraging members of Congress to announce their retirement early in the election cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Issue Accountability and the Mass Public.
- Author
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CANES-WRONE, BRANDICE, MINOZZI, WILLIAM, and REVELEY, JESSICA BONNEY
- Subjects
- *
VOTING research , *ELECTIONS , *LEGISLATIVE bodies , *POLITICAL parties , *POLITICAL statistics , *LEAST squares ,UNITED States Congressional elections - Abstract
Under what conditions, if any, does the mass electorate hold congressional members accountable for their records on specific issues? We examine this question on the issue of crime, for which salience has varied substantially and opinion has favored Republicans, and the environment, for which salience has not varied much and voters have favored Democrats. Because different parametric specifications produce divergent findings, we utilize matching analysis in addition to ordinary least squares. The tests suggest that issue accountability exists even controlling for a member's overall record. However, such accountability depends crucially on issue salience and a member's partisan affiliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Which Party Gets the Mayoralty? A Multivariate Statistical Investigation of Danish Local Government Formation.
- Author
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Skjæveland, Asbjørn and Serritzlew, Søren
- Subjects
- *
PRACTICAL politics , *MAYORS , *MULTIVARIATE analysis , *POLITICAL parties , *POLITICAL statistics , *LOCAL government ,DANISH politics & government - Abstract
In non-presidential multiparty systems, it is not only the voters but also coalition formation after the election that decides the government of the community. Some national-level studies investigate which parties are most likely to win the Prime Minister's office. The aim of this article is to investigate the same question at the local level: What makes a party more likely to win the post of mayor? The article finds that party size and change in size are important along with experience and ideological centrality. The results are similar to those obtained at the national level, and this study thus expands the scope of these explanatory variables. However, the study also shows that being a large party is not sufficient for a party to have a good chance of winning the mayoralty. Furthermore, norms guiding appropriate behaviour seem important in addition to instrumental behaviour. It appears that parties that are popular in the electorate benefit from being perceived as more deserving of the mayoralty than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Measuring Aggregate-Level Ideological Heterogeneity.
- Author
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LEVENDUSKY, MATTHEW S. and POPE, JEREMY C.
- Subjects
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U.S. state legislatures , *POLITICAL doctrines , *HETEROGENEITY , *MODEL-based reasoning , *CONSTITUENT power , *POLITICAL statistics , *U.S. states - Abstract
Ideological heterogeneity is a key variable for the study of legislative and electoral politics. Scholars have long recognized that members with more ideologically heterogeneous constituencies behave differently than members with more homogeneous ones. Empirical tests of these theories, however, have typically been stymied by a lack of appropriate measures. We corrected this shortcoming by developing a measurement model for ideological heterogeneity, and we used our method to generate estimates for the 50 U.S. states and 435 congressional districts. Beyond the specific results presented here, a key contribution of our model is its flexibility: our technique can be used to produce similar estimates in a variety of contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Power Sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes.
- Author
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Svolik, Milan W.
- Subjects
AUTHORITARIANISM ,MATHEMATICAL models ,DICTATORSHIP ,POLITICAL statistics ,POLITICAL violence ,AUTHORITY ,POWER (Social sciences) - Abstract
I examine a fundamental problem of politics in authoritarian regimes: the dictator and the ruling coalition must share power and govern in an environment where political influence must be backed by a credible threat of violence. I develop a model of authoritarian politics in which power sharing is complicated by this conflict of interest: by exploiting his position, the dictator may acquire more power at the expense of the ruling coalition, which may attempt to deter such opportunism by threatening to stage a coup. Two power-sharing regimes, contested and established dictatorships, may emerge as a result of strategic behavior by the dictator and the ruling coalition. This theory accounts for the large variation in the duration of dictators' tenures and the concentration of power in dictatorships over time, and it contributes to our understanding of the dynamics of power sharing and accountability in authoritarian regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Democracy and the political culture orientations of ordinary citizens: a typology for the Arab world and beyond.
- Author
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Tessler, Mark and Gao, Eleanor
- Subjects
- *
DEMOCRATIZATION , *POLITICAL statistics , *POLITICAL participation , *PLURALISM ,ARAB countries politics & government, 1945- - Abstract
Using recent survey data from Jordan, the Palestinian Territories and Algeria, the authors examine the interrelationship among six normative and behavioural orientations emphasised in the literature on democratic transitions: support for gender equality, tolerance, interpersonal trust, civic participation, political interest and political knowledge. Factor analysis indicates that these orientations form two distinct and independent conceptual clusters, one involving gender equality and tolerance, described as a pluralism dimension; and the other involving interpersonal trust, civic participation, political interest and political knowledge, described as an involvement dimension. The dichotomisation and juxtaposition of these two independent dimensions creates a four-category typology of the political culture orientations of ordinary citizens: democratic – high on both dimensions; indifferent – high on the pluralism dimension and low on the involvement dimensions; activist – low on the pluralism dimension and high on the involvement dimensions; and parochial – low on both dimensions. In addition to offering this typology as a way to map norms and behaviour patterns that are important for democracy, the study compares the distribution of Jordanian, Palestinian and Algerian citizens across the four categories of political orientation and offers insights about the reasons for differences among the three countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Taking Time Seriously.
- Author
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De Boef, Suzanna and Keele, Luke
- Subjects
TIME series analysis ,COINTEGRATION ,TAX rates ,POLITICAL statistics ,LEGISLATIVE voting ,21ST century international relations - Abstract
Dramatic world change has stimulated interest in research questions about the dynamics of politics. We have seen increases in the number of time series data sets and the length of typical time series. But three shortcomings are prevalent in published time series analysis. First, analysts often estimate models without testing restrictions implied by their specification. Second, researchers link the theoretical concept of equilibrium with cointegration and error correction models. Third, analysts often do a poor job of interpreting results. The consequences include weak connections between theory and tests, biased estimates, and incorrect inferences. We outline techniques for estimating linear dynamic regressions with stationary data and weakly exogenous regressors. We recommend analysts (1) start with general dynamic models and test restrictions before adopting a particular specification and (2) use the wide array of information available from dynamic specifications. We illustrate this strategy with data on Congressional approval and tax rates across OECD countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. Evaluating expert judgments.
- Author
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STEENBERGEN, MARCO R. and MARKS, GARY
- Subjects
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POLITICAL parties , *POLITICAL science , *POLITICAL statistics , *PSYCHOMETRICS , *SOCIAL science methodology - Abstract
Although expert surveys have gained a prominent place in comparative studies of party positions on issues, their validity has been called into question. In this article, some of the validity concerns are evaluated in the context of the authors' own expert survey on national party positions vis-à-vis European integration. One goal of the article is to demonstrate that this expert survey produces valid measures of party positions. An equally important goal, however, is to suggest some methods that can help in assessing the quality of expert survey data. These methods, which are rooted in psychometric theory, are applicable in a variety of contexts and are easily implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Political stability and the science of comparative politics.
- Author
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Dowding, Keith M. and Kimber, Richard
- Subjects
POLITICAL stability ,COMPARATIVE government ,POLITICAL science ,BELIEF & doubt ,CONCEPTS ,LEGITIMACY of governments ,POLITICAL statistics ,POLITICAL systems - Abstract
The utility of comparative politics has been questioned from time to time in two ways. Doubts have been cast upon its ability to offer genuine and useful generalisations. and these doubts have been reinforced by the appearance of studies which, while statistically adventurous, are not grounded upon a sufficiently sound theoretical base. In this paper we consider Alasdair Maclntyre's objections to the idea of a science of comparative politics, and discuss the nature of law-like generalisations. We explore the extent to which Maclntyre's objections may be overcome, and indicate the form that generalisations about political stability could take. We also argue that studies of stability need a clear explanatory linkage between the empirical data they utilise and the hypotheses of a theory about political stability. This is often lacking in such studies, which seem to substitute a sophisticated statistical technique for genuine political theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1987
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Party as linkage.
- Author
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Katz, Richard S. and Müller, Wolfgang C.
- Subjects
EUROPEAN politics & government ,POLITICAL parties ,POLITICAL participation ,POLITICAL leadership ,POLITICIANS ,POLITICAL statistics ,SURVEYS ,SOCIAL participation ,POLITICAL science - Abstract
Until recent years, two major trends in European politics - the growth of State services and increased political participation - have complemented the central role of parties. This paper argues that this complementarity may have started to come unstuck, and questions the future viability of the mass party as a result of a shift in the balance of perceived advantages of the mass party by both leaders and members. The paper discusses several potential costs and benefits of party membership for leaders and members. Using membership statistics and survey data the reasonableness of these arguments is explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Specification uncertainty and model averaging.
- Author
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Bartels, Larry M.
- Subjects
POLITICAL statistics - Abstract
Discusses the procedure proposed by Bayesian statisticians for taking account of specification uncertainty called the model-averaging procedure. Averaging results from a variety of different model specifications; Convenient approximation to full-blown Bayesian analysis in typical social settings; Logic of model averaging.
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
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14. Near-integrated data and the analysis of political relationships.
- Author
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DeBoef, Suzanna and Granato, Jim
- Subjects
POLITICAL statistics - Abstract
Discusses the relevance of near-integrated data in the study of political relationships. Time series data in political science; Integrated, stationary, and near-integrated data processes; Near-integration as an alternative to integrated and stationary processes; Relevance of near-integration for political scientists; Ways to deal with near-integrated data.
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. The Ratio Variables Hoax in Political Science.
- Author
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Firebaugh, Glenn
- Subjects
POLITICAL statistics ,POLITICAL science - Abstract
Discusses some misconceptions about ratio variables in political science. Evidence that political theorist Karl Pearson's warning about ratio correlation does not apply to ratio regression; Association between ratio variables and model specification.
- Published
- 1988
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. The Impact of Political System Structure on Probability Patterns of Internal Disorder.
- Author
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Geller, Daniel S.
- Subjects
RESISTANCE to government ,POLITICAL statistics ,STATE, The - Abstract
Presents a stochastic interpretation of domestic conflict processes by determining the dimensions of political violence. Examination of the effects of system structure on those processes; Ability of centrist governments to manifest less violence than either polyarchic or personalist states; Levels of internal war in the long run.
- Published
- 1987
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. THE SOCIAL COSTS OF THE DEMAND FOR QUANTIFICATION.
- Author
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Reuter, Peter and Bovbjerg, Randall R.
- Subjects
POLICY sciences ,POLITICAL statistics ,EXTERNALITIES - Abstract
Examines the social costs of the demand for quantification in policy analysis. Nature of the use of statistics in policy analysis; Reasons behind the emergence of advocacy numbers; Difficulties of countering advocacy numbers; Quality control of numbers used in public policy debates.
- Published
- 1986
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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