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Arctic warming is of growing interest because it could affect midlatitude climates. Even though numerous studies have paid attention to the relationship between Arctic warming and the midlatitude climate in winter, the influence of Arctic warming on the summer conditions has not been examined in depth. Here we identify a significant relationship between East Asia hot summers and Arctic warming over the Barents and Kara seas. To represent Arctic warming, we define a combined index by simply differencing the normalized surface air temperature and sea‐ice indices. We found that the combined index in July has significantly high correlations with the temperatures in China, Korea, and Japan. While the teleconnection mechanism is not completely revealed, it is evident that warming over the Barents and Kara seas is accompanied by the local development of an anomalous anticyclone and downstream wave trains, which yield a strong anticyclonic circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific. The anticyclonic circulation persists and intensifies until August, which leads to hot summer conditions in East Asia with warm advection and enhanced shortwave radiation. Our results suggest that Arctic climate conditions can be used as a useful precursor of East Asia temperature variations even in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcing to multidecadal variations in the winter (December–February) East Asian averaged surface air temperature (EASAT) since 1880 by analyzing three observational datasets and large ensemble simulations from 12 coupled models. The results indicate that the internal variability plays a dominant role in the EASAT multidecadal variations. Specifically, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) affects the EASAT via an atmospheric teleconnection across the Eurasian continent, and the correlation coefficient between internally generated EASAT variation and the AMO index is −0.49. In comparison, the external forcings only modulate the observed EASAT variations due to offsetting effects of the external forcing agents. That is, the multidecadal variations in the greenhouse gas concentrations and anthropogenic/volcanic aerosols make positive and negative contributions, respectively. Our new finding is conducive to EASAT predictions in the following decades due to the predictability of AMO and anthropogenic forcings. Plain Language Summary: Internal variability is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in predicting the East Asian winter temperature in future decades. It is thus essential to address associated reasons for the internally generated East Asian temperature variability. This study tries to separate internal variability from the externally forced climate response for the winter East Asian averaged surface air temperature (EASAT) based on three observational datasets and large ensemble simulations from 12 latest coupled models. We find that the internal variability explains 59% of the total EASAT multidecadal variations, in which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a vital role. The external forcings play the secondary role. This means that accurate prediction of the AMO would be helpful for predicting internally generated EASAT variations at the multidecadal scale. Key Points: Internal variability has played a dominant role in the multidecadal variations of winter temperature averaged over East Asia since 1880The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a vital role in internally generated East Asian winter temperature variationsChanges in greenhouse gas concentrations and anthropogenic/volcanic aerosols make positive and negative contributions, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is investigated. It is found that the QBO, defined as 70‐hPa zonal wind in the deep tropics, is negatively correlated with the SAT over the western North Pacific in February and March. Cold temperature anomaly appears during the QBO westerly phase. Such relationship is likely mediated by the subtropical jet. During the QBO westerly phase, a horseshoe‐shaped zonal wind anomaly forms in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and is connected to the equatorward shift of the Asia‐Pacific jet. This equatorward jet shift is accompanied by a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the subtropical North Pacific and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over northern Eurasia in the troposphere. The resultant temperature advection brings cold air to East Asia and the western North Pacific. This regional downward coupling in February and March, which is not sensitive to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, has become statistically significant in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent summer surface air temperature (SAT) changes over densely populated Eurasia exhibit a non‐uniform pattern with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia (EA) but weak warming over Central Asia (CA), forming a wave train‐like structure. However, the key factors that determine this non‐uniform warming pattern remain unclear. By analyzing observations and model simulations, here, we show that more than half of the SAT multidecadal variations from 1950 to 2014 over Europe‐west Asia and EA may have resulted from external forcing, rather than from internal variability in the Atlantic as previously thought. In contrast, the recent SAT over CA is influenced mainly by internal variations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly caused by changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our findings provide strong evidence for major impacts of external forcing on multidecadal climate variations over Eurasia. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have documented non‐uniform decadal warming rates in summer since the mid‐1990s over densely populated Eurasia, with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia (EA) but weak warming over Central Asia. This unique tripole warming pattern and its cause have attracted considerable attention. It may arise from internal variability (IV; e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO]) and/or external forcing. Furthermore, it was found that the recent AMO resulted from both IV and decadal changes in aerosols. Thus, the relative contributions of IV and external forcing to the recent Eurasian warming pattern remain unclear. Here we show that the surface air temperature multidecadal variations since 1950 over Eurasia are caused by both IV and external forcing, with more than half of the variations over Europe‐west Asia and EA resulted from external forcing (i.e., greenhouse gases [GHGs] and aerosols), in contrast to the previous notion that the non‐uniform warming is mainly originated from the Atlantic Ocean. Looking ahead into the upcoming decades, aerosols will continue to decrease, whereas the AMO will likely be in its positive phase. These changes, together with continued increases in GHGs, will accelerate warming trends over Eurasia and further exacerbate summer heat waves. Key Points: More than half of the multidecadal surface air temperature (SAT) variations from 1950 to 2014 over Europe‐west Asia and East Asia resulted from external forcingThe forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly caused by changes in greenhouse gases and aerosolsOur study helps reconcile human and natural drivers of the tripole pattern of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the daily outgoing longwave radiation and 850‐hPa zonal wind over (10°S–30°N, 105°–150°E) during the extended boreal summer (May to October), the lifecycle of the western Pacific intraseasonal oscillation (WPISO) is divided into eight phases based on the first two principle components of multivariate empirical orthogonal function decomposition. Because of the pronounced northward propagation feature, the meridional location of the convection anomaly centre in each WPISO phase is quite different, leading to distinct surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly responses over the Northern Hemisphere, in which North America shows the most significant SAT anomalies, and the SAT anomalies vary significantly with WPISO phase. Under different WPISO phases, convection can induce different mid‐to‐high latitude Rossby wave trains emanating from East Asia to North America, resulting in different SAT anomaly patterns over North America. Four numerical experiments are conducted and demonstrate that the convection at different meridional locations in each WPISO phase could shape the pattern of the Rossby wave train and in turn lead to different SAT anomalies over North America. The results in this study are expected to provide predictability sources for the sub‐seasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction of North American SAT anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies indicated that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) showed significant decadal variations and experienced an interdecadal weakening in the mid‐1980s. How did the EAWM evolve thereafter? In this study, we investigate the decadal variations of the EAWM in the past three decades using five reanalysis datasets and one observational dataset. In total, five members of EAWM system are examined. In the lower troposphere, the Siberian high intensity becomes stronger around 2005 in all five reanalysis datasets, whereas the Aleutian low strengthens in the mid‐1990s and weakens in the mid‐2000s. The two subsystems show opposing changes in the past two decades. In the middle troposphere, the intensity of the East Asian trough remains weakening in recent decades only with some short‐time strengthening around the years of 1995 and 2010. In the upper troposphere, the EAWM index based on the meridional shear of the East Asian jet stream at the 300‐hPa level shows a weak positive trend since the 1990s. It has decadal variations similar to those of the East Asian trough. In the context of these members' changes, the low‐level northerly wind index exhibits two cycles since the year 1980. This index increases in the mid‐1980s, then decreases since the mid‐1990s, and finally increases in the mid‐2000s. Further analysis on the East Asian surface air temperature also reflects similar decadal variations. In summary, unlike the interdecadal shift in the mid‐1980s, the EAWM members (i.e., the Siberian high, the Aleutian low, the low‐level northwesterly wind, the East Asian trough and the East Asian jet stream) do not show consistent decadal variations over the past 30 years. The low‐level members show more significant changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐East Asia second phase (CORDEX‐EA‐II) with higher resolution, model results driven by ERA‐Interim reanalysis using WRF, RegCM4 and CCLM are evaluated against the observational datasets including CN05.1, CRU and GPCP during the period of 1989–2009. The results show that the RCMs have the capability to simulate the annual and seasonal mean surface air temperature and precipitation, however, some biases are produced. The biases are highly dependent on the geophysical locations and the RCMs applied, and CCLM agrees better with the observed precipitation over ocean. CCLM also outperforms the other two RCMs in simulating the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in most sub‐regions, which can be attributed to its better presentation of the interannual variation of large scale circulation. Generally, all the three RCMs can well reproduce the seasonal cycles of the surface air temperature in most sub‐regions, however, only in the northern regions of China can the RCMs well reproduce the seasonal cycles of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The robust negative correlation between the Siberian High (SH) intensity and winter surface air temperature (SAT) in Northeast China has been widely used for winter climate seasonal forecasting. However, this traditional viewpoint varies when considering the changes in SH spatial extension during boreal winter. Here, a newly defined SH index representing both SH intensity and spatial extension shows two distinct influences of a stronger SH on the SAT in Northeast China. The stronger SH with a decreasing eastern edge, which features a meridional see–saw dipole of abnormal circulations centred over the Arctic and Siberia, respectively, results in a warmer winter over Northeast China. In this situation, the decreasing SH is linked to the enhanced Arctic Polar vortex through a tropospheric–stratospheric interaction. However, a stronger SH with an expanding eastern edge is coupled with the East Asian trough (EAT) and results in a colder winter in Northeast China. The SH and EAT anomalies are embedded in a zonally oriented wave‐train originating from the North Atlantic in the troposphere. Because of the diversity of impacts, the SH intensity and zonal extension should be jointly considered for seasonal forecasting of winter SAT anomalies in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]