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This article brings together some of the improvements to GDP estimates from the income side since the publication of Charles Feinstein's 1972 volume National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. Many of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together, focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income‐based estimates for the period 1841–1920. The new data are then used to comment on several features of the late nineteenth‐century UK economy, considering both the trend and cyclical path of the economy. The new data, coupled with modern de‐trending methods, suggest that there was a long‐term slowing of the UK economy from the late nineteenth century, starting from the 1870s. To undertake the trend–cycle decomposition, we employ a wavelets methodology to describe the time–varying features of trends and cycles over this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Argentina is the only country in the world that was developed in 1900 and developing in 2000. Although there is widespread consensus on the occurrence and uniqueness of this decline, an intense debate remains on its timing and underlying causes. This paper provides a first systematic investigation of the timing of the Argentine debacle. It uses an array of econometric tests for structural breaks and a range of GDP growth series covering 1886–2003. The main conclusion is the dating of two key structural breaks (in 1918 and 1948), which we argue support explanations for the debacle that highlight the slowdown of domestic financial development and trade protectionism (after 1918) and of institutional development (after 1948). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, first, we measure Chinese time preferences as a whole and by region based on the Euler equation under an assumption of rational expectation. The calculating results show that the rates of Chinese time preference are markedly low for most hypothetical risk attitudes over the concerning period, and there exists heterogeneity in time preferences across regions in China. Second, compared with the estimates for other advanced and emerging countries under the same assumptions and same methodology, the rates of Chinese time preference are the lowest for any given risk preference, suggesting that Chinese are more patient during the time of our examinations. Third, our measured time preferences are powerful in predicting China's high saving rates and rapid growth rates of gross domestic product. In addition, the differences in economic growth rates between China and other sample countries can be partially explained by the differences of estimated cross‐countries time preferences within our sample period. Fourth, we investigate the additional factors that affect the Chinese time preferences. Our study provides insights on the regional and international differences in economic growth rates and other economic outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil‐rich, other‐resources‐rich and non‐resource‐based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short‐term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil‐rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource‐rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the impact of rent‐seeking on economic growth by introducing an augmented Solow growth model over the period 2010–2015. Static and dynamic panel regression models are employed to investigate this impact for the six geographic regions, namely, Sub‐Saharan Africa, East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia according to the World Bank's classification. Results reveal that the impact of control for rent‐seeking on economic growth is found highly significant and positive for most of the regions however, no significant effect could detect on the control for rent‐seeking on economic growth for advanced economies. Results also show that there exists mixed evidence between gross fixed capital as a percentage of gross domestic product, Employment ratio and economic growth for the six geographic regions. The results can be interpreted in favour of the advanced economies that they can relatively handle the rent‐seeking problem compared to the relatively weak economies due to much better political and economic stability, better administrative mechanism, stronger law system, more adequate public services, better health, and education system as well as more advanced infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Berichte zur Wissenschafts-Geschichte is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper investigates the impact of the main criterion employed by the European Commission for the allocation of the largest portion of Structural Funds, based on the threshold of the 75% of European Union (EU) average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We focus on the 2014–2020 programming period and on EU‐15 regions to analyze if this criterion has penalized some of them, as a consequence of the 2004 EU enlargement, which has represented an exogenous shock in the allocation process, due to the economic backwardness of new member states. Through the application of Synthetic Control Methods and Difference‐in‐Differences estimators at different geographical scales, we show that regions that did not obtain the less developed status in both the programming period 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, but that would have obtained it in the period 2014–2020 without the 2004 EU enlargement, experienced a significantly lower GDP per capita growth between −10.5% and −5.7%. Conversely, territories that in the period 2014–2020 lost the less developed status, previously obtained in the time frame 2007–2013, were not characterized by a significantly lower economic growth, providing some evidence of the effectiveness of the safety net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effect of population aging on economic growth in China. Aging is widely assumed to impact economic growth by shaping the labor market performance and human capital. Using an interactive fixed effects model and a provincial panel data set during 1990–2015, and also exploiting the predicted province‐by‐year variation in population aging fraction as an instrument, we examine the impact of population aging on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, labor force ratio, and labor productivity. The results show that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population aged 65+ decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by approximately 2%. Furthermore, channel decomposition shows that half of the decrease is due to slower growth of the labor force ratio, whereas the rest may be due to slower productivity growth. In addition, the negative effect of aging on GDP growth is more substantial after the year 2000, and the effect of aging on the labor force ratio and productivity shows different patterns during different periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the nature of structural change and the sources of economic growth of an economy, especially the relative importance of different industries, is essential for policy-making. This paper estimates industry contribution to economic growth in both Canada and the United States. It argues that industry contribution should be evaluated on the basis of the performance of an industry in terms of creating economic value relative to other industries. In particular, it calls for the quantity and the price effects, which is consistent with real GDP in the chained-Fisher index that values the industry more when its price rises and less when its price declines. This is an important departure from the traditional methodologies that consider only quantity effect. This paper shows that the contribution from demand-driven industries is significantly more than the finding based on traditional thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to examine the long-run and short-run relationship between tourism, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Croatia. The econometric framework used for analysis is the Johansen Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique. For testing the stability of long-run equilibrium relationship vector error correction model technique has been applied on a quarterly data set covering the period 1996-2013. The main findings of the paper confirm the stability of the long-run equilibrium relationship between tourist arrivals (ARRIVAL), openness of the economy (OPEN) and real effective exchange rate as independent variable and gross domestic product (GDP) as dependent variable in Croatia. Furthermore, the results indicate short-run causality between OPEN and GDP, as well as between real effective exchange rate and GDP. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper analyses how the functional components of public expenditure and spending‐driven consolidations affect the economic growth, unemployment, and income inequality. A dynamic panel data least squares dummy variable estimator estimator is employed over a sample of 15 European Union countries during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that real GDP growth decreases when fiscal austerity measures are implemented, especially if they are spending‐driven. Cuts in public expenditure undermine economic growth, namely if they slash spending on public order, recreation, and education. Spending cuts on education, in particular, affect the investment in human capital, harming not only growth but also economic, social, and human development. The unemployment rate also proved to be significantly boosted when austerity measures restrict spending on education, whereas income inequality rises when social protection expenditures are cut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open‐economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using simulations projecting Chinese economic growth into the future, this paper first examines when China will overtake the USA to become the largest economy. Demographic changes that affect economic growth are taken into consideration in these projections. China is expected to become number one sometime in the mid-2020s, unless its growth rate of gross domestic product per worker declines dramatically, à la the lost decade of Japan. Next, the paper examines whether China becoming the number one economy will mean its currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become the international key currency. According to the basket currency regressions during the period that Chinese currency was gradually appreciating against the US dollar from July 2005 to August 2008, it is shown that the RMB has already acquired a strong influence on the Asian currencies. This shows that the RMB is fast gaining the status of a regional anchor currency for a possible regional joint float. As the Chinese government proceeds with internationalization of its currency, the RMB is expected to gain in the ranking of other aspects of international currency, such as the store of value and the medium of exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines “green” growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, “brown” growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and “black” growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy has always accorded an important role to export production in the overall growth process in South Africa. Recent policy proposals once again reaffirm this commitment. This paper attempts to ascertain whether the emphasis on export production is justified. Using modern econometric techniques within a multivariate framework, the results show that there is uni-directional Granger-causality running from exports to economic growth in South Africa. In addition, the gross domestic product (GDP) accounting identity underestimates the contribution of exports to economic growth. Thus, deliberate policy measures that stimulate export production will greatly enhance the growth prospects for the South African economy. The results in this paper also indicate that more attention should be given to the promotion of non-primary exports. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely believed that the rotation and promotion system of local political chiefs plays an important role in China's economic miracle. In this paper, however, we focus on the potential cost of the inherent frequent turnover of local chiefs. Based on a new manually collected dataset on prefectural‐level local chiefs between 1983 and 2012, our empirical results suggest that the turnover of the local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief would lead to a 0.48 percentage point decrease in the local GDP growth rate in the current year. This effect is especially concentrated on more government‐affected fields, such as domestic investments, consumption and government expenditures. We also provide evidence that organization friction, especially the successor CCP chiefs' unfamiliarity with the city, his/her new colleagues and/or the working conditions, is one of the major potential reasons for such a negative turnover effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses East Asia's performance in terms of per capita gross domestic product growth rates over the past 40 years and compares that performance to progress primarily on measures of health. It also compares the region to the rest of the world on a set of broader development measures. It looks at the evidence of East Asian regional and global convergence in health and education, alongside evidence from the region matching global evidence of a comparatively weak link between income growth and health and education growth. This finding is echoed by available within-country evidence from the region. This paper discusses what might be behind these results, suggesting the importance of a few simple supply-side interventions coupled with the spread of demand for health and education services as sufficient to drive quality-of-life convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time-series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi-directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export-led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between bilateral trade openness and per capita gross domestic product for 15 Latin American countries during the financial crisis of 2008. It is employed an augmented gravity model of trade for the pre‐crisis, during‐crisis and post‐crisis periods (2004–2006, 2007–2009 and 2010–2012, respectively). Geographical characteristics and democracy rates of countries are used to instrument for average bilateral trade volumes. Different measures of trade openness are tested, and mixed results are identified. First, a slightly positive relationship between trade openness and growth is found when considering only Latin American countries. Second, after removing outliers and considering all importer countries, a negative relationship between the variables is found. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product ( GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While high fertility persists in the poorest countries and fertility declines with per capita income in developing countries, fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most developed countries. This paper presents a model where a U-shaped relationship between overall fertility and per capita income reflects within country differences in workforce skill composition and household choice of occupation, fertility, and childrearing. The fraction of skilled workers rises with economic growth. By allowing for both differences in the fertility of skilled and unskilled workers and purchased childrearing inputs, we explain a poverty trap with high fertility, fertility decline with economic development, and the possible reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are mixed. This paper suggests that the country sample selection and expenditure classification are important in explaining these conflicting results. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially its core component, is strong only for countries with macroeconomic stability and fast GDP per capita growth dynamics, which are also capable of using public funds for productive purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the economic impact of the $14 billion preparatory infrastructure investments for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. We use satellite data on night light luminosity at municipality and electoral district level as a proxy for economic activity, applying synthetic control methods for estimation. For the average World Cup municipality, we find significantly positive, short‐run effects before the tournament, corresponding to a reduction of unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. At the electoral district level, we reveal distinct effect heterogeneity, where especially investments in transport infrastructure are shown to have long‐lasting, positive effects, particularly in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in five SAARC member countries - Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Using time series data from 1990 to 2010, an empirical model is estimated in which growth of real GDP depends on FDI, investment, openness, tax policy and inflation. After establishing the stationarity of the data series, cointegration tests are performed, and an error correction model is developed and estimated. The empirical results indicate that, unlike investment and openness to international trade, FDI has not played a significant role in promoting economic growth in these countries. We conclude that the effectiveness of FDI may depend in part on the size of the inflows, as well as the level of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I evaluate the economic track record of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey, using the synthetic control method (SCM). This methodology compares the post-AKP development trajectory of Turkey with that of a weighted combination of similar but untreated countries. The SCM is particularly useful in this setting as it allows construction of a synthetic control to Turkey that replicates the pre-AKP development dynamics. I find that Turkey under AKP grew no faster in terms of GDP per capita when compared with a synthetic counterpart from a wide pool of other countries. Restricting the pool of control units to only include Muslim countries shows Turkey growing slower than its Muslim counterparts. Moreover, analysis of post-crisis recovery periods shows Turkey growing no faster than comparable post-crisis cases across time. However, expanding the outcome set to health and education reveals large positive differences in both infant and maternal mortality as well as university enrolment, consistent with stated AKP policies to improve access to health and education sectors for the relatively poorer segments of the population. Nonetheless, increased access in these fields is not matched by improved labour market access, as both labour force participation as well as unemployment have deteriorated, and especially so for women. As for measures of institutions, I fail to find any durable positive differences in measures related to democracy or human rights early on during the post-intervention period, and in several instances there is evidence of significant declines over the long run. A particularly salient feature of the AKP's reign is reduced political power of the military, consistent with the military in Turkey receiving lower economic rents than its synthetic counterpart during AKP's reign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the contribution of tourism industry to the GDP of three selected destinations in the Middle East region: Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. We introduce a quadratic functional form and apply the advanced panel cointegration dynamic model with robust estimation to test our hypothesis. Our analysis is based on a comprehensive set of panel data of tourism receipts, education investment, foreign direct investment and fixed capital formation over the period of 1981-2008. The results show a long-run relationship between tourism growth and GDP. We also show that tourism has a stronger impact on the economy than other related sectors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using cross-country panel data, this study identifies and discusses major factors contributing to China's strong growth in the past four decades. China's low initial per capita income relative to its own long-run potential, combined with sound policy factors including a high investment rate, strong human capital, high trade openness and improved institutions, enabled the economy to converge with advanced economies in terms of income level. The shift-share analysis with industry-level data shows that strong labour productivity growth in the manufacturing sector largely contributed to China's overall labour productivity growth. Although labour reallocation from agriculture to the services sector made a positive contribution to aggregate labour productivity growth, labour productivity growth in the services sector itself was negative over the 1980-2010 period. China's average potential GDP growth is predicted to decline significantly in the coming decade, to 5%-6% and fall further to 3%-4%-due to the convergence effect and structural problems-unless China substantially upgrades its institutions and policy factors and improves productivity, particularly in its services sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of abnormal credit expansion and contraction on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (CGDP) of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. We analyse abnormal credit from two dimensions: first, the impact of abnormal credit contraction on CGDP and, second, the impact of abnormal credit expansion on CGDP. Using data for 10 ECOWAS countries from 1993 to 2021, we find evidence that abnormal credit contraction reduces the CGDP of ECOWAS countries. We also find some evidence that abnormal credit expansion reduces the CGDP of ECOWAS countries. More specifically, a unit increase in abnormal credit contraction decreases CGDP by 0.99%, whereas a unit increase in abnormal credit expansion decreases CGDP by only 0.1%. The findings confirm that 'too little' or 'too much' credit does not improve growth per person in immature financial systems. We also observe that banking sector solvency and a strong legal system have a positive effect on the CGDP of ECOWAS countries, while banking sector efficiency has a negative effect on CGDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of exchange rate signals in an economy is very powerful and often pervasive. Moreover, sustained real exchange rate overvaluation will, by distorting resource allocation away from productive activities, eventually lead to drastic adjustments of relative prices and reduction of aggregate economic growth. However, the direct theoretical and empirical link between exchange rate misalignment and macroeconomic indicators still remains to be fully understood. Nonetheless, empirical studies continue to make attempts to understand this relationship by exploring relationships that incorporate different measures of exchange rate misalignment in traditional growth regression models. Based on a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate derived measure exchange rate misalignment, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and real exchange rate misalignment for Zimbabwe. After controlling for other structural and policy variables, the main findings demonstrate that exchange rate misalignment exerts a negative and highly statistically significant impact on growth. Overall, the results lend support to the hypothesis that chronic real exchange rate overvaluation was a key fundamental behind the post-2000 economic growth contraction in Zimbabwe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taxing agriculture to mobilize resources for industrialization has been a widely used development strategy. Using novel cross-country time-series data sets with direct measures of agricultural taxation, we examine how a policy bias against agriculture affects the speed of convergence in income per capita, structural change, and economic growth. We find that distortionary agricultural policies in poor economies can account for the emergence of convergence clubs in our sample by significantly retarding their structural transformation and economic growth. Overall, we find no evidence suggesting that policies that discriminate against agriculture have been beneficial for long-term economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign aid and growth in per capita GDP using annual data from the 1960 to 1997 period for a sample of 71 aid-receiving developing economies. The results show that the effect of foreign aid on economic growth is positive, permanent, statistically significant, and sizable: raising foreign aid by $20 per person of the receiving country results in a permanent increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita by approximately 0.16 per cent. Using an alternative foreign-aid measure, a permanent increase in aid by 1 per cent of the receiving economy's GDP permanently raises the per capita growth rate by 0.14 to 0.26 per cent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has found that regional resource dependence in Indonesia has been positively associated with income growth, contrary to a 'resource curse'. We test five potential causal mechanisms for this positive effect: spillovers to manufacturing or to agriculture, higher education provision, improved institutional quality and share of public spending on capital. We follow 390 Indonesian districts from 2006 to 2015, using four alternative resource dependence measures, and instrumenting for their potential endogeneity. We first confirm a positive overall effect of resource dependence on real per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), then test whether district resource dependence positively affects manufacturing, agriculture, education, public capital investment and institutional quality. We finally test whether these factors contribute to GRDP while reducing the remaining effect of resource dependence. We find that resource dependence may aid income in part by raising district institutional quality, which in turn raises GRDP. We also find little support for a 'contingent curse' hypothesis that resource dependence only benefits districts that already have higher institutional quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compute steady‐state economic growth—defined as the rate of growth that the economy would converge to in the absence of new shocks. As we show, this rate can be computed in real‐time by means of a parsimonious time‐varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression model. Our procedure offers a relatively agnostic estimation of benchmark equilibrium growth rates. Estimates show that the steady‐state gross domestic product growth rate in the case of the United States has declined from just above 3% per year in the 1990s to 2.4% at present. Results for other six advanced economies and the euro area indicate that the steady‐state growth rate, which is consistent with stable inflation and financial conditions, has been relatively stable since 2010 in most cases in spite of a recent slowdown in actual GDP growth rates. In contrast, per capita steady‐state growth rates during the last decade were typically lower than in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the finance and economic growth nexus in G-7 economies as these countries experience significantly higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel of 31 years from 1983 to 2013, we provide new evidence on the finance-growth relationship. We show the presence of nonlinearity as there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance-growth nexus, we notice that there exists a threshold effect of finance at 109% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We observe that exceeding the threshold would hinder the countries instead of furthering economic growth as too much finance is harmful. Based on the panel Granger causality test results, we claim that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. Our findings for the G-7 economies offer some useful policy inferences to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the Euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018, we offer new evidence on the finance–growth nexus. We show the presence of non‐linearity as there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice a threshold effect at 74%–86% of GDP for domestic credit; 51% of GDP for stock turnover ratio; and 65% of GDP for stock market capitalisation. We notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities. The panel Granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. These findings in the Euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Social Security Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article examines long‐term labour productivity change in Japan from the early seventeenth century to the nineteenth century. We constructed sectoral labour force estimates based on the methodology presented in a previous study, who provided a sectoral GDP series covering the Tokugawa period. Our results show the industrial structure in the Tokugawa period remained relatively stable in comparison with the economy after the Meiji Restoration. Nevertheless, the estimates of sectoral labour productivity suggest expansion of the market economy in Tokugawa Japan influenced the development of industrialisation after the Meiji Restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under climate change. Few studies, however, quantify at the national scale CSA's economic effects or compare CSA to input‐intensive technologies, like fertilizer or irrigation. Such quantification may help with priority setting among competing agricultural investment options. Our study uses an integrated biophysical and economic modeling approach to quantify and contrast the economywide effects of CSA (integrated soil fertility management in our study) and input‐intensive technologies in Ethiopia's cereal systems. We simulate impacts for 20‐year sequences of variable weather, with and without climate change. Results indicate that adopting CSA on 25% of Ethiopia's maize and wheat land increases annual gross domestic product (GDP) by an average 0.18% (US$49.8 million) and reduces the national poverty rate by 0.15 percentage points (112,100 people). CSA is more effective than doubling fertilizer use on the same area, which increases GDP by US$33.0 million and assists 75,300 people out of poverty. CSA and fertilizer have some substitutability, but CSA and irrigation appear complementary. Although not a panacea for food security concerns, greater adoption of CSA in Ethiopia could deliver economic gains but would need substantial tailoring to farmer‐specific contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include economic, social and environmental dimensions of human development and make explicit commitments to all of life on Earth. Evidence of continuing global biodiversity loss has, at the same time, led to a succession of internationally agreed conservation targets.With multiple targets (even within one policy realm, e.g. the CBD Aichi Targets for biodiversity), it is possible for different indicators to respond in the same direction, in opposite directions or to show no particular relationship. When considering the different sectors of the SDGs, there are many possible relationships among indicators that have been widely discussed, but rarely analysed in detail.Here, we present a comparative cross‐national analysis exploring temporally integrated linkages between human development indicators and wildlife conservation trends.The results suggest that in lower income countries there are negative relationships between measures of human population growth and bird and mammal population abundance trends outside protected areas.The results also suggest a positive relationship between economic growth and wildlife population trends in lower income countries. We stress, however, the need for future research to further explore the relationships between economic growth and natural resource‐based imports.Our results highlight a clear potential for compatibility of the conservation and development agendas and support the need for further integration among sustainable development strategies. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a theoretical model to account for the negative relationship between tax evasion and economic development. More precisely, we integrate tax morale into a dynamic OLG model of tax evasion. Tax morale is modeled as a social norm for tax compliance. We show that accounting for such nonpecuniary costs of evasion may explain (a) why the share of evaded taxes over GDP decreases when countries grow and (b) that tax morale is positively correlated with the level of GDP per capita. Finally, a higher tax rate increases aggregate evasion and the number of evaders when taxpayers decisions are interdependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies report the growth effects from labor reallocation in China to be in the order of 1–2 percentage points per year, which would appear to be a significant fraction of China's per capita income growth. We show that the total factor productivity gains are an order of magnitude smaller, at only 0.25 percentage points per year. There are two reasons for this difference. First, the majority of studies have used a decomposition method that effectively assumes linear production functions. This results in values that are much larger than the more appropriate Denison–Kuznets method. Second, we also allow for sectoral differences in human capital. We conclude that the gains from labor reallocation may have been a far less important source of China's growth than is conventionally thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study estimates the causal effect of a process of political change, namely, a recent constitutional referendum, on economic growth in Myanmar. To analyze the impact of this process, this study compares the trajectories of actual and counterfactual GDP per capita after the referendum using the synthetic control method. We calculate the counterfactual GDP per capita using country‐level panel data from 2002 to 2013, with Myanmar as the treated country and a set of developing countries in East and South Asia, the Pacific and sub‐Saharan Africa as the control group. The results of the synthetic analysis suggest that the recent process of political change in Myanmar had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita but not on per capita foreign direct investment or trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporaneous population. Agriculture demands land as an input, itself treated as a scarce form of capital. In our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined, and key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960-2010 data on world GDP, population, cropland and technological progress. Introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture, we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages, and that it significantly affects both optimal consumption and population trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesises that emissions first increase at low stages of development then decrease once a certain threshold has been reached. The EKC concept is usually used with per capita Gross Domestic Product as the explanatory variable. As others, we find mixed evidence, at best, of such a pattern for CO2 emissions with respect to per capita GDP. We also show that the share of manufacture in GDP and governance/institutions play a significant role in the CO2 emissions-income relationship. As GDP presents shortcomings in representing income, development in a broad perspective or human well-being, it is then replaced by the World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS, also known as Genuine Savings). Using the ANS as an explanatory variable, we show that the EKC is generally empirically supported for CO2 emissions. We also show that human capital and natural capital are the main drivers of the downward sloping part of the EKC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]