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This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

Three different dependency explanations of economic growth are evaluated through cross-sectional regression analyses for 98 countries between 1960 and 1977, using logged GNPC, its square, gross domestic investment and the military participation ratio as control variables. Galtung's A Structural Theory of Imperialism seems to contain one useful predictor of economic growth, commodity concentration, which hurts the growth prospects of nations, but neither his vertical trade nor his partner concentration has any significant impact. Rubinson's state strength approach receives no support at all. since strong states, operationalized by government revenue/GDP, come closer to hurting than to promoting economic growth. Bornschier's investment dependency approach also fails to explain why some LDCs do so much better or worse than others. It is suggested that future research on linkages between the world system and the economic performance of LDCs might profit from broadening the research agenda to include power politics and its military participation effects in addition to political economy variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the political factors that supports or slows down the economic growth among advanced capitalist societies. It also aims to extract an overview of the factors that influence the growth in advanced industrial societies. The discussions in the study originated mainly in the analysis which is developed by Olson regarding economic growth. Economic growth is defined as the increase in the gross domestic product per capita over time at the constant price. The relationship of domestic political environment in a country and its wealth-creating capacity is also investigated.

This article claims that a predator-prey model of cyclical growth is a useful concept for studying the dynamic relationship between wage and salary shares of GDP and employment. The rate of growth of employment is considered as an indicator of union bargaining strength: the change of the wage share is treated as a reflection of an ongoing distributional conflict between profits and wages. The paper discusses some of the analytic properties of the formal model. It continues with an attempt to fit the model to West German data for the period from 1960 to 1985. Given the formal rigidity of the model, this strategy is only partially successful. As a consequence, a more complex model is introduced which also relies heavily on the idea of a predator-prey cycle. As a fully-fledged political-economic model of the OECD type of systems, it allows us to study, among other issues, the implications of different union policies under the constraint of a serious unemployment problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the concept of economics and economic growth. She cites the explanation of John Kenneth Galbraith, who says that economics remains an ideological defense of the capitalist system, or a resort and occupation of some of the most determined minds. She also mentions other propositions in economics, which all relates economics to the use of words, arithmetic, geometry, and algebra. In order to effectively analyze the global economic system, she further elaborates that the system of national income accounting is best to be considered. Growth, on the hand, is said to be the result of measuring the gross national product or gross domestic product of a country.

Discusses the stationarity of British economic and productivity growth from 1856 to 1913. Use of a time-varying parameter regression model to disprove the notion of a climacteric; Investigation on the order of integration of the gross domestic product (GDP) series and cointegration of GDP and factor input growth.

This article explains the convergence of the productivity levels of different countries over time through the use of the Galton model. In applying the Galton model to the economic growth of countries we may assume that the distribution of countries outputs and inputs is multivariate lognormal. Labor productivity is measured by gross domestic product per capita and its distribution across countries, being a ratio of two lognormal marginal distributions. The Galton model provides insights into the statistical relationships between growth and convergence.

This is an attempt to examine whether there is any causal relation between social development and economic growth Social development in this context is measured by a social development index, which is a weighted composite index formed with eight social indicators of life representing various spheres of social life Economic growth is indicated by Per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product (PCRGDP) The causality test offered by Granger has been performed for the entire sample as well as for three income groups high, middle and low The study also tests causality between PCRGDP and the eight social indicators of life [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports on the growth of the demand for natural gas in Asia. Role of natural gas in satisfying new demand as a result of abundance, growth in gas-fired power generation and the environmental benefits offered by gas; Accounts on the annual growth in gross domestic product in Asian countries; Link of growth in energy consumption to economic growth.

This paper contrasts the achievements of Indonesia and Thailand in reducing poverty through the 1980s. It is argued that estimates produced by the World Bank suggesting that the headcount incidence of poverty in Thailand in 1990 was higher than Indonesia were flawed because the poverty line used was not truly comparible. But there can be little doubt that the reduction in the headcount incidence of poverty was greater in Indonesia than in Thailand over the 1980s, as was the decline in the absolute numbers of poor people, even though rates of GDP growth were faster in Thailand. Three possible reasons for the superior performance of Indonesia are suggested: regional disparities in economic growth have been more pronounced in Thailand, the expansion of post-primary education has been very slow, and Indonesia was starting from a much higher incidence of poverty in 1980 than was Thailand. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides two new data sets for comparisons of real income in OECD countries. The first set provides adjusted real series for GDP and its components from 1960 to 1993 based on OECD 1990 purchasing power parities. The second set uses OECD PPP of different benchmark years, and interpolates these applying national price indices. Comparisons between both alternatives, Penn World Table Mark 5 (PWT 5) and its new version (PWT 5.6), in terms of economic growth and convergence, reveal some remarkable differences. Moreover, there are wider differences concerning the relative countries' position in GDP per capita ranking. Estimations of convergence equations based on OECD data yield a better fit than those obtained using PWT data although there are also some significant differences between PWT 5 and PWT 5.6. Nevertheless, a very positive result is that other parameters of interest in these equations are not affected by the use of these different data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the major factors explaining GDP growth in a number of Southeast Asian countries during the 1980s and early 90s. Estimates of the contribution of technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and changes in domestic output prices are reported for Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Partial results for Indonesia and Malaysia are also shown. An index number approach is used; it has a tight theoretical foundation being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores empirically the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth by including the data of expenditure in infrastructure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in traditional growth cross-country regression. Public capital and growth rate of output; Relationship between infrastructure and output; Expenditure on infrastructure and growth.

The export-led growth hypothesis is tested using monthly time series data for Shanghai (one of the major exporting provinces in China) using the Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. This paper builds on the existing literature in three distinct ways. This is the first study of the export-led growth hypothesis which employs a regional dataset (Shanghai). Second, the paper follows Riezman et al . (1996) in controlling for the growth of imports to avoid a spurious causality result; and finally, the use of the methodology by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to improve the standard F -statistics in the causality test process. The research finds one-way Granger causality running from GDP to exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we adopt a Bayesian stochastic frontier framework for measuring the components of output growth in a set of 17 OECD countries. Empirical results indicate that all three components play an important role in explaining output growth. However, it was difficult to find a general pattern which could form the basis for universal policy conclusions with respect to productivity growth. We note that our work is similar in spirit to the growth accounting literature. Although too voluminous to cite here (see Maddison (1987) for a survey), this literature tends to lump the unexplained residual under the rubric 'technical change'. Using a stochastic frontier model, however, enables us to analyze efficiency issues formally and it allows us to give a structural interpretation to our unexplained residual. Thus, we address the issue of output growth in a somewhat more fundamental way than in the growth accounting literature. Furthermore, our work also relates to the enormous literature that seeks to explain economic growth using cross-country regressions (e.g. Barro (1991), DeLong and Summers (1991), Levine and Renelt (1992), Persson and Tabellin (1994)). Unlike this literature, however, we focus on measurement rather than explanation, using a simple economic model and then seeing what insights can be derived through the use of careful statistical methods. This is in contrast to cross-sectional regression approaches that seek to consider a myriad of possible deeper 'structural' reasons for empirical findings. In statistical terms, we are interested in investigating the properties of the distribution of output conditional on capital and labor. Researchers who perform cross-country growth regressions implicitly argue that the distribution of output conditional on capital, labor, and many other complex variables, is the more appropriate focus for studies into productivity growth. However, the investigation of such a distribution typically involves selecting out only a few of the potentially enormous number of conditioning variables. For computational ease researchers engaged in cross-country growth studies will usually assume a linear relationship along with minimal dynamics and a simple error structure. Given the restrictiveness of such a statistical model and the lack of robustness in cross-country growth regressions (Levine and Renelt (1992)), we would argue that our approach is a sensible complement. In addition, we start from models with a theoretical foundation in production theory and imposing the economic regularity conditions is an important step in avoiding ad hoc methods, based exclusively on data-mining. Allowing for model and parameter uncertainty is of enormous importance in any empirical study since it enables the researcher to guard against drawing strong conclusions from weak evidence. In this paper, we have made many conclusions and recommendations based on our empirical results but have stressed that both model and parameter uncertainty must lead us to qualify significantly the recommendations we make. That is, substantial standard deviations for quantities of interest and a certain degree of sensitivity to model choice means that our conclusions should be taken tentatively and within the full understanding of these limitations. Note, however, that these limitations are not specific to our particular approach since any sensible study would doubtlessly reveal a similar sensitivity. The limitations of the present data allow us to draw only tentative conclusions about the macroeconomic debates we consider, and to pretend otherwise would surely be misleading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Provides information on a study that analyzed the effects of export growth on the evolution of gross domestic product, domestic employment and investment. Literature on the relationship of economic growth with exports; Methodology; Results of the effects of export growth on domestic variables.

Explores the role of savings, investment and productivity in economic growth in Australia from 1861-1900 and 1949-1990. Assessment on savings rates; Lack of long-term relationship between savings and investment; Interaction between investment, gross domestic product and productivity growth; Relevance of sub-optimal savings concerns in intergeneral equity and welfare.

The article focuses on the business scenario in Egypt. Not only is Egypt a huge country, but it also has a large population which grows at a rate of slightly less than 2% a year. Egypt has undertaken gigantic privatization efforts. However, while welcome from an economic point of view, privatization has deepened inequalities between the southern and northern parts of the country, and thus has led to serious social tensions, which have become major preoccupations for the Egyptian government. The Egyptian economy ranks among the strongest in the Arab world. Services and a declining public sector characterize that economy. Services, including the favorable tourist industry, comprise about 50% of the nation's GDP. Oil and natural gas (reserves) constitute Egypt's most important natural resources. About one third of Egyptians are employed in agriculture even though this sector has declined as major export. Egypt has signed a preferential trade agreement with the European Union, and has been negotiating to secure an association in the European- Mediterranean free-trade zone of 2010. Egypt also enjoys Most Favored Nation status with the United States and has negotiated investment agreements with the United States, Germany, the Great Britain, Sweden, Switzerland, and numerous other nations.

Investigates the effects of income inequality on the growth of productivity, capital, and gross domestic product. Role of political instability, income redistribution and human capital channels; Productivity, investment and total effect; Positive relationship between inequality and socio-political instability.

Abstract. This paper presents a survey on the relationship between growth and employment in selected transition economies. The second section discusses the empirical evidence using two sets of recent data on employment and pays special attention to gender inequality in economic activity. The third section provides an overview of the literature on the causes of the behaviour of employment and output in transition countries. The fourth section tests the response of employment to GDP growth using data from 11 years and 11 countries. The main result of the paper shows that there seems to be no relationship between output growth and the level of employment in the post-transition period for two countries: Bulgaria and Ukraine. The fact that both countries have one of the highest shares of unofficial economy in total output in the region is suggested as the main explanation behind this striking result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study critically evaluates alternative estimates of China's GDP level and growth, as well as its PPP GDP conversions, and, based on this evaluation, it draws important implications for the understanding of China's economic performance in both historical and international perspectives. It finds that although almost all empirical results have supported the downward-bias hypothesis for China's GDP level and the upward-bias hypothesis for China's GDP growth, they vary greatly, and that PPP estimates for China are also diversified. These estimates, if accepted, may substantially alter the existing views on the Chinese economy, particularly, its size, TFP level and catch-up performance. The discussion focuses on the theories, methodologies and data used in these studies, and particularly, the possible biases in their results thereby. It argues, however, that despite differences in estimates, they could still provide sensible boundaries for researchers to gauge the "real" values and hence assess China's "real" living standard and growth performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uganda, in an attempt to accelerate growth and development, has been encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) through privatization programmes and generous incentive packages such as tax holidays and exemptions. However, the Ugandan experience shows that to attract FDI, macroeconomic and political stability and policy consistency are much more important than such incentive schemes. The paper discusses infrastructure and institutional bottlenecks that act as deterrents to FDI. The paper uses time series data to investigate the FDI-growth linkage. The empirical results indicate that FDI has a positive impact on GDP growth in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub-samples of various regions. Cross-sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American subsamples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The subsample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Provides information on a study which explored the economic growth and financial market conditions of developing countries. Assessment of foreign debts; Levels and process of debt servicing; Analysis of gross domestic product.

This paper surveys articles that have examined and sought to explain the distributional change experienced in Indonesia during the past 30 years of rapid economic development. The literature is critically evaluated, and methodological difficulties and current data limitations are highlighted and point the way for advances in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work suggests that financial development is important for economic growth, since financial markets more effectively allocate capital to firms with high value projects. For firms in poorly developed financial markets, implicit borrowing in the form of trade credit may provide an alternative source of funds. We show that industries with higher dependence on trade credit financing exhibit higher rates of growth in countries with weaker financial institutions. Furthermore, consistent with barriers to trade credit access among young firms, we show that most of the effect that we report comes from growth in the size of preexisting firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the process of economic growth. Growth of gross domestic product per capita; Endogenous growth models; International trade.

The estimated static welfare gains from international trade are very small, on the order of one percent of GDP. The case for free trade is therefore increasingly linked to trade’s apparent positive effects on economic growth. But how large are these growth effects? The vast empirical literature has emphasized the statistical significance, not the economic significance, of the trade-growth relationship. This survey’s re-examination of the empirical literature focuses on the size of the relationship between trade and growth. Our survey reveals that the many empirical studies are surprisingly consistent in terms of the size of the relationship: A one percentage point increase in the growth of exports is associated with a one-fifth percentage point increase in economic growth. Given the power of compounding, the effect of trade on growth is very important for human welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Free Trade Areas (FTAs) have recently become an integral part of Singapore trade policy. This paper discusses the reasons behind Singapore's recent embracement of ‘new regionalism’ with particular reference to the proposals to form FTAs with Japan and the US. The paper goes on to examine various aspects of Singapore's trade linkages with the two economic superpowers in some detail. Popular discussion of FTAs gives one the appearance that such a trade policy is entirely benign. The paper sounds a cautionary note, highlighting some reasons to be concerned with Singapore's recent embracement of the ‘new regionalism’. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves line one quarter of the world's tropical coastlines, and approximately 117 countries and territories have mangrove resources within their borders. Although over recent years mangrove deforestation has occurred at a phenomenal rate worldwide, there have been few economic studies of the underlying causes. The article attempts such an analysis and particularly examines the role of economic development, with specific reference to those activities that may result in mangrove deforestation, in determining the area of mangrove left within a country. The article develops a model of economic activity and mangrove conversion. From this model, a relationship is established between remaining mangrove area, economic activity, and other important causative factors. The mangrove area relationship is estimated empirically for a cross-section of 89 countries. Results show that shrimp aquaculture and agriculture are significantly associated with mangrove loss across all countries, whereas the higher the level of GDP per capita the more mangrove area remains. The number of protected areas, length of coastline and political stability were also important in determining the remaining mangrove area of a country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: (i) income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for ‘greening’ the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the strong factors reflecting Africa's economic backwardness is the low level of industrial development. Not only does the industrialization process appear to have bypassed the continent, there is evidence of de-industrialization in the case of several countries. This paper seeks to address a set of interrelated questions: To what extent is the growth performance of African economies related to these structural characteristics? More precisely, is there any discernible evidence that GDP growth and overall labour productivity growth of African countries is positively related to how fast their industrial sector is growing? We test out Kaldor's three growth laws: first, that the growth of GDP is positively related to the growth of manufacturing output not simply in a definitional sense (because manufacturing output is a part of GDP) but in a fundamental causal sense related to the production characteristics of manufacturing activity; secondly, that the growth of labour productivity in manufacturing is positively related to manufacturing output growth because of static and dynamic increasing returns to scale (Verdoorn's Law); and thirdly, that there will be a negative relation between labour productivity growth in the economy as a whole and the rate of growth of employment in the non-manufacturing sector because most activity outside the manufacturing sector is subject to diminishing returns, particularly in land-based activities such as agriculture and many service activities. The authors' conclusions are that there is some empirical support for Kaldor's growth laws in respect of the countries of Africa. The growth of GDP seems much more closely associated with the growth of the manufacturing/industrial sector than the agricultural or service sectors. Structural change in favour of industrial activities would almost certainly help to accelerate the growth of GDP and living standards in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sustainable fiscal policy means that the public debt/GDP ratio remains stable over the medium to long term. If the real interest rate exceeds the real economic growth rate, the neoclassical prescription for fiscal sustainability requires government to run a sufficiently sized primary surplus in the medium to long term and not to dissave on average. The IMF, international investors and sovereign credit rating agencies use this neoclassical prescription as a measure of country risk. To create an environment friendly to foreign investors, the new South African government has, since it came to power in 1994, reduced the conventional budget deficit to below three percent of GDP to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio.

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long-run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching-up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time-series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For nearly two years the Japanese economy has grown significantly faster than commentators expected, raising the question of whether the country has finally broken out of its long economic malaise. This article by Simon Knapp examines recent developments to see whether this recovery is sustainable. It argues that over the last year the recovery has broadened out beyond merely the export sector, although there are good reasons to believe that growth as measured by GOP has been overstated and that many serious structural problems remain. Business investment has surged on the back of rising profitability and an improved labour market has helped lift consumer confidence. At the same time the paper recognises the importance of China's boom in stimulating the Japanese economy over the last two years, and estimates that this factor may have boosted the level of GDP by between 1 to 2%. With Chinese growth now moderating to more sustainable levels, export growth will slow over the next year or so. However, domestic demand should now be strong enough, in the absence of major external shocks, to generate GDP growth of around 1.5 to 2% per annum in the medium term; a respectable figure given the country's falling population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper use both single period cross-section data as well as panel data for the period 1970 to 1990 (largely obtained from version 6.1 of the Penn World Tables) to identify the determinants of Africa's growth in per capita GDP, as well as to evaluate the empirical relevance of recent contributions that stresses the potential importance of geographical vs institutional factors in Africa's growth. The paper further contributes by making use of recent cross-country data on institutional quality and geographical characteristics of African countries. To address the danger of using an inappropriate estimation method, a number of estimation methods was used, namely OLS, LAD, GLS-random effects, fixed effects as well as a dynamic GMM-estimator. The results confirmed that the more efficient and dynamic GMM-estimator is superior and that controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, dynamic effects and endogeneity of the regressors is important. It is concluded that there is conditional convergence in Africa, and that literacy, investment, FDI and urban agglomeration have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita growth in Africa. Growth is negatively affected by government expenditure, settler mortality, malaria, landlockedness and landarea. These results support Acemoglu et al.'s (2001) ‘reversal of fortune’ thesis, namely that settler mortality is inversely related to economic growth. It further suggests that it is not one of either institutions or geography that are more important than the other, but rather that geography may have an important impact on institutions. The robust finding that the incidence of malaria has a particularly large impact on economic growth in Africa supports this conclusion. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 period We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model over this period according to a mean squared forecast error metric. However, tests based on forecast encompassing indicate that many financial variables do, in fact, contain information that is useful for forecasting real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 out-of-sample period. Our results suggest that the extant literature exaggerates the demise of the forecasting power of financial variables with respect to real activity since the mid-1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study finds that elite political instability (PI)—the incidence of coups d’etat—has negatively influenced the mapping of GDP growth into economic development, measured as the algebraic difference in the United Nations Human Development Index, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 1970 and 1985. Taking into account the additional adverse impact of PI on economic development through its deleterious influence on economic growth, the study estimates that PI has exacted a substantial toll in SSA's economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article surveys research on Taiwan’s economic history for the past fifteen years, covering a period from approximately the eighteenth to early twentieth century. It discusses the works of economists as well as studies by researchers in history and other fields. The topics selected for the survey are: change of Taiwan’s per capita GDP in the long-term; trade and development; aborigine property rights; and institutional change in the early Japanese colonial period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following key points are drawn from the body of this response: • CIWEM broadly supports the need for an overarching UK strategy for sustainable development. It should embrace a vision that includes equity, social justice, citizenship and biodiversity and should apply to all living things -- not just people. It must look long-term with a sense of vision and set long-term targets. • The leadership record of Government is sometimes compromised by its own conflicting actions, for example on aviation fuel and sustainable housing. Consistency and firm leadership by Government, and joined-up policy and thinking across Government departments (including the Treasury), its agencies and the regulators are essential. • The Government, including the Treasury, must recognise that not all economic growth is desirable. Growth should not just be measured against Gross Domestic Product (GDP): instead it should include whole-life assessments of economic costs and benefits of prosperity and quality of life, and should be linked to indicators of sustainable consumption and production. • The key to achieving the sustainable use of natural resources is behavioural change. A multi-faceted strategy is required to achieve this need, including education, regulation, economic incentives and green taxes. There are many different ways in which the Government can deliver inspirational messages to the public. • The environment and social justice must be a priority for the new strategy, and equity should be explicitly acknowledged as a principle of sustainable development. Unless social inequalities are addressed, environmental issues will not be a priority for the poor or socially excluded. • The contribution of business to sustainable development is vital. Government initiatives should promote the real benefits to all businesses, including SMEs, that can come from reviewing their environmental impacts. All 'large' companies should be legally required to provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a new methodology based on industry comovement to examine the role of financial market development in intersectoral allocation. Based on the assumption that there exist common global shocks to growth opportunities, we hypothesize that country pairs should have correlated patterns of sectoral growth if they are able to respond to these shocks. Consistent with financial markets promoting responsiveness to shocks, countries have more highly correlated growth rates across sectors when both countries have well-developed financial markets. This effect is stronger between country pairs at similar levels of economic development, which are more likely to experience similar growth shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses regime-switching techniques to examine the similarities of GDP growth-cycle features of 10 East Asian countries. A third regime of rapid growth is relevant for most countries. In Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, there was no secular slowdown in growth since the rapid-growth regime re-emerged at some stage. Japan is special since it shares each of its features with different countries, while China shares almost all its features with most countries. Finally, the same countries that were correlated with Japan in the 1980s have been linked with China since the 1990s. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates China's economic growth by performing multiple-break unit root tests on the data of national and sectoral output and output per worker to identify their steady-state and transitional growth paths. The evidence generated suggests that the growth behaviour of the Chinese economy is consistent with endogenous growth theory. The results of multiple-break unit root tests are then explained within the endogenous growth framework, using historical observations on how the evolution of economic institution/environment causes changes in some institutional parameters and hence in the steady-state growth rate of GDP per worker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five studies of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in eight East Asian countries are surveyed. The discrepancies among the studies are very large: the average absolute discrepancy across studies of estimated TFP growth in each country exceeds the average absolute difference across countries of the rates estimated by each study. A method for decomposing these large discrepancies among the studies is proposed and applied. The single largest source of discrepancies is the estimated elasticity of GDP with respect to capital. It is argued that the two studies that used regression estimates of this elasticity are probably less reliable than the three that derived it by assuming that factors are paid the value of their marginal product. On this basis, our preferred estimates imply that annual TFP growth in East Asia ranged from 3 per cent in Japan to a small decline in the Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of eco-efficiency is commonly referred to as a business link to sustainable development. In this article, eco-efficiency is examined at a regional level as an approach to promoting the competitiveness of economic activities in the Finnish Kymenlaakso region and mitigating their harmful impacts on the environment. The aim is to develop appropriate indicators for monitoring changes in the eco-efficiency of the region. A starting point is to produce indicators for the environmental and economic dimensions of regional development and use them for measuring regional eco-efficiency. The environmental impact indicators are based on a life-cycle assessment method, producing different types of environmental impact indicators: pressure indicators (e.g., emissions of CO2), impact category indicators (e.g., CO2 equivalents in the case of climate change), and a total impact indicator (aggregating different impact category indicator results into a single value). Environmental impact indicators based on direct material input, total material input, and total material requirement of the Kymenlaakso region are also assessed. The economic indicators used are the gross domestic product, the value added, and the output of the main economic sectors of Kymenlaakso. In the eco-efficiency assessment, the economic and environmental impact indicators are monitored in the same graph. In a few cases eco-efficiency ratios can also be calculated (the economic indicators are divided by the environmental indicators). Output (= value added + intermediate consumption) is used as an economic indicator related to the environmental impact indicators, which also cover the upstream processes of the region's activities. In the article, we also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of using the different environmental impact indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines patterns of persistence, mobility, convergence and divergence in the shape and evolution of the distribution of GDP per head across Great Britain (GB). Using a distribution dynamics approach, the evidence suggests that there is no pattern of overall convergence and a number of counties are persistently located at the extremes of the distribution. While there is some evidence of a north-south divide, fragmented islands and sub-regions of persistence are located across geographical space. This pattern of persistence and divergence coexists with upwards and downwards intra-distributional mobility, some of which appears to exhibit specific spatial patterns. The evidence is more consistent with approaches emphasising uneven development than theories predicting economic convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign aid and growth in per capita GDP using annual data from the 1960 to 1997 period for a sample of 71 aid-receiving developing economies. The results show that the effect of foreign aid on economic growth is positive, permanent, statistically significant, and sizable: raising foreign aid by $20 per person of the receiving country results in a permanent increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita by approximately 0.16 per cent. Using an alternative foreign-aid measure, a permanent increase in aid by 1 per cent of the receiving economy's GDP permanently raises the per capita growth rate by 0.14 to 0.26 per cent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and Thailand, there is a strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]