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It has been acknowledged that wavelets can constitute a useful tool for forecasting in economics. Through a wavelet multi-resolution analysis, a time series can be decomposed into different timescale components and a model can be fitted to each component to improve the forecast accuracy of the series as a whole. Up to now, the literature on forecasting with wavelets has mainly focused on univariate modelling. On the other hand, in a context of growing data availability, a line of research has emerged on forecasting with large datasets. In particular, the use of factor-augmented models have become quite widespread in the literature and among practitioners. The aim of this paper is to bridge the two strands of the literature. A wavelet approach for factor-augmented forecasting is proposed and put to test for forecasting GDP growth for the major euro area countries. The results show that the forecasting performance is enhanced when wavelets and factor-augmented models are used together. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In this paper, we study the dynamics of economic growth for 140 countries during the period 1951-2003. The variables representing economic performance are levels and growth rates of per capita gross domestic product. Using the concept of economic regime, we introduce a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a minimal spanning tree and a hierarchical tree are constructed from time series to help detect the existence of groups of countries sharing similar economic performance. The two main clusters that are identified over the whole-time interval can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance, respectively. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylised facts: Certain countries move across clusters; the high-performance cluster tends to span, while the low-performance one tends to be (more) compact; and the distance between the two groups increases in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is tourism an opportunity for lagging countries in the elusive quest for growth ()? Recent empirical evidence suggests that the answer is a cautious yes. Aggregate cross-country data show that tourism specialisation is likely to be associated with higher per capita GDP growth rates than those observed in industrialised countries. However, this evidence ignores the importance of institutional quality and results are likely to be biased by omitted variable problems. In this paper we frame our starting question within the general debate about the importance of good/bad institutions as fundamental determinants of economic growth () and ask whether previous positive results of tourism on growth are in fact driven by the presence of growth-enhancing institutions. Our empirical analysis exploits newly available datasets and controls the robustness of previous results on growth and tourism in the presence of several institutional quality variables. By means of descriptive statistics and some simple cross-country regressions we confirm that the quality of institutions is important for growth. Yet our results strongly suggest that the weight of tourism in an economy is an independent and robust predictor of higher-than-average growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses OECD data to examine changes in labor productivity, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross domestic income (GDI), economic aggregates, and relative economic growth over time. Real GDI combines changes in production (real GDP) with a trading gain derived from relative price changes. The paper considers two sources of trading gains: the terms of trade, and the real exchange rate. For OECD countries, the terms of trade is the more important price ratio, making a contribution to real income growth that is, on average, an order of magnitude larger than the real exchange rate. Over long time periods, the most important source of real income growth is changes in production. Over shorter time horizons, however, the trading gain can make noteworthy contributions. Changes in aggregates like real private consumption, or the relative economic performance of nations, are shown to be particularly dependent on the trading gain during the large swings in resource prices that occurred post-2002. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the impact of terrorism and conflicts on income per capita growth in Asia for 1970–2004. Our panel estimations show that transnational terrorist attacks had a significant growth-limiting effect. An additional terrorist incident per million persons reduces gross domestic product per capita growth by about 1.5%. In populous countries, many additional attacks are needed to achieve such a large impact. Transnational terrorism reduces growth by crowding-in government expenditures. Unlike developing countries, developed countries are able to absorb terrorism without displaying adverse economic consequences. An internal conflict has the greatest growth concern, more than twice that of transnational terrorism. Conflict variables are associated with smaller investment shares and increased government spending, with the crowding-in of government spending being the dominant influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalisation on poverty reduction in Vietnam during the period of economic reform. Using a combined approach dealing with four transmitting channels from trade to poverty, the major findings are summarised as follows. First, Vietnam's trade liberalisation has fostered economic growth, which has helped to raise per capita GDP and reduce poverty. Second, trade liberalisation has directly benefited the poor through creating pro-poor employment and raising wages. Third, another impact of trade liberalisation on poverty is income and substitution effects associated with reduced domestic prices of importables and increased domestic prices of exportables such as coffee and rice. Fourth, trade liberalisation has indirectly benefited the poor because it raises government revenue, which enhances the government's ability to subsidise the poor. Finally, although the poverty rate in Vietnam has been reduced impressively, there is an increasing disparity between urban and rural areas and, among the latter, concern does exist regarding ethnic minorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trinidad and Tobago lies within one of the world's most tourism-intensive regions, the Caribbean. Yet, unlike its neighbours, it has not relied heavily on income from travel and tourism since its economy is dominated by the energy sector. The energy sector is the mainstay of the economy contributing approximately 34.1% to the country's GDP, 85.5% to merchandise exports and 37.1% to Government revenues in 2004 (Ministry of Energy, 2006). The Government, in its aim for developed nation status by 2020, recognizes that the energy sector is unable to provide the sustainable jobs needed to achieve this. Thus, the Government's policy strategy, Vision 2020, identifies tourism as one of five (5) sectors that should be developed to contribute to the country's economic development. The tourism industry currently represents 13.8% of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Trinidad and Tobago and is expected to increase its share by nearly three percentage points to 16.5% by 2015. It accounts for 16.7% of total employment, and this is forecasted to rise to 19.2% (WTTC, 2005). Several challenges are evident, that continue to limit the industry's full potential for growth in the country. It is against this background that this paper seeks to identify and analyse the strategies that can be adopted to maximize the contribution of the hospitality and tourism industry to economic development in Trinidad and Tobago. The three main strategies proposed are a greater focus on local entrepreneurship; the re-orientation of the role of the local financial mechanisms in tourism development and; the development of competitive tourism investment incentives for potential investors in the hospitality and tourism industry. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the growth effects of government expenditure for a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1970s and 1980s, with a particular focus on disaggregated government expenditures. Our methodology improves on previous research on this topic by explicitly recognizing the role of the government budget constraint and the possible biases arising from omitted variables. Our primary results are twofold. First, the share of government capital expenditure in GDP is positively and significantly correlated with economic growth, but current expenditure is insignificant. Second, at the disaggregated level, government investment in education and total expenditures in education are the only outlays that are significantly associated with growth once the budget constraint and omitted variables are taken into consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the highly debated export-led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using Malaysia as a case study. First, the hypothesis is tested in terms of labour and total factor productivity growth as a potential channel via which exports can affect or be affected by GDP growth. Considering the impact of imports on GDP and productivity growth serves a similar purpose. In addition, GDP is trade-adjusted to avoid the double-counting problem arising from the national income identity. Second, the relationships are examined using the relatively recent Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ) causality tests. These results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether the probability of being punished after losing power leads dictators to restrain their level of predation and, thus, increase economic growth. To do so, a simple model of predatory rule is developed, and the consequences of an increasing probability of punishment after loosing power explored. New data on dictators' post-exit fate have permitted to estimate the predicted probability of punishment taking place by using multinomial logit. Outgoing dictators' strength and the international context are shown to be the main determinants of post-exit scenarios. The probability of punishment is proven to have a positive and significant effect on the rate of growth of GDP under alternative specifications of growth regressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop an empirical model to decompose the evolution of the agricultural share of GDP into three components: price changes, factor endowment changes and technological change. Our results suggest that relative prices have a positive but small influence on the share of agriculture in GDP in both the long-run and the short-run. An increase in capital per unit of labor, on the other hand, is associated with a smaller agricultural share. Technical change has been biased in favor of the agricultural sector but this effect has been swamped by the magnitude of the input effects, in particular, the changes in the capital-labor ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of African Development Review / Revue Africaine de Développement is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Chinese economic growth statistics are controversial. In recent years they have been challenged on technical grounds as well as on suspicions of data falsification. Angus Maddison in a 1998 OECD study goes further in that he questions China's long-run growth statistics and proceeds to provide an alternative time series. His average annual real GDP growth rate for China in the reform period (1978 through 1995) is 2.39 percentage points below the official one. Angus Maddison's revisions were subsequently incorporated into the Penn World Tables; his GDP estimates for China, thus, have found their way into numerous cross-country studies. This paper critically examines the validity of Angus Maddison's revisions to official data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For nearly two years the Japanese economy has grown significantly faster than commentators expected, raising the question of whether the country has finally broken out of its long economic malaise. This article by Simon Knapp examines recent developments to see whether this recovery is sustainable. It argues that over the last year the recovery has broadened out beyond merely the export sector, although there are good reasons to believe that growth as measured by GOP has been overstated and that many serious structural problems remain. Business investment has surged on the back of rising profitability and an improved labour market has helped lift consumer confidence. At the same time the paper recognises the importance of China's boom in stimulating the Japanese economy over the last two years, and estimates that this factor may have boosted the level of GDP by between 1 to 2%. With Chinese growth now moderating to more sustainable levels, export growth will slow over the next year or so. However, domestic demand should now be strong enough, in the absence of major external shocks, to generate GDP growth of around 1.5 to 2% per annum in the medium term; a respectable figure given the country's falling population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long-run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching-up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time-series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of African Development Review / Revue Africaine de Développement is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: (i) income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for ‘greening’ the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the process of economic growth. Growth of gross domestic product per capita; Endogenous growth models; International trade.

Provides information on a study which explored the economic growth and financial market conditions of developing countries. Assessment of foreign debts; Levels and process of debt servicing; Analysis of gross domestic product.

Abstract. This paper presents a survey on the relationship between growth and employment in selected transition economies. The second section discusses the empirical evidence using two sets of recent data on employment and pays special attention to gender inequality in economic activity. The third section provides an overview of the literature on the causes of the behaviour of employment and output in transition countries. The fourth section tests the response of employment to GDP growth using data from 11 years and 11 countries. The main result of the paper shows that there seems to be no relationship between output growth and the level of employment in the post-transition period for two countries: Bulgaria and Ukraine. The fact that both countries have one of the highest shares of unofficial economy in total output in the region is suggested as the main explanation behind this striking result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the Qing dynasty, we investigate the long‐run impact of early development on today's living standards in China. We use city‐level population density in 1776 as a measure of early economic prosperity, and examine how it is associated with today's development indicators such as the average night light density, GDP per capita, average years of schooling, and trade openness. We find that cities which were more prosperous during the Qing dynasty are now also brighter, richer, more educated, and more open. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The purpose of this article is to estimate the size of the informal economy in Vietnam, describe its development from 1995 to 2015, and assess the country's potential tax loss from this activity. The MIMIC model indicates that the informal economy accounts for between 15 per cent and 27 per cent of GDP. The informal economy has grown sharply in Vietnam since 2007, while its size has decreased in other comparable nations. Potential tax revenue lost annually amounts to between 3.3 per cent and 5 per cent of gross domestic product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in the nominal wage and real labour productivity. The principal association is a strong positive relationship between inflation and nominal wages, while improvements in real labour productivity report only a relatively weak negative association with inflation. Supply‐side shocks also consistently report an association with inflation. As to demand‐side shocks, the output gap does not return a robust statistical association with inflation. Instead, it is growth in the money supply and government expenditure which return robust and theoretically consistent associations with inflationary pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the major factors explaining GDP growth in a number of Southeast Asian countries during the 1980s and early 90s. Estimates of the contribution of technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and changes in domestic output prices are reported for Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Partial results for Indonesia and Malaysia are also shown. An index number approach is used; it has a tight theoretical foundation being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article claims that a predator-prey model of cyclical growth is a useful concept for studying the dynamic relationship between wage and salary shares of GDP and employment. The rate of growth of employment is considered as an indicator of union bargaining strength: the change of the wage share is treated as a reflection of an ongoing distributional conflict between profits and wages. The paper discusses some of the analytic properties of the formal model. It continues with an attempt to fit the model to West German data for the period from 1960 to 1985. Given the formal rigidity of the model, this strategy is only partially successful. As a consequence, a more complex model is introduced which also relies heavily on the idea of a predator-prey cycle. As a fully-fledged political-economic model of the OECD type of systems, it allows us to study, among other issues, the implications of different union policies under the constraint of a serious unemployment problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores empirically the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth by including the data of expenditure in infrastructure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in traditional growth cross-country regression. Public capital and growth rate of output; Relationship between infrastructure and output; Expenditure on infrastructure and growth.

Using cross-country panel data, this study identifies and discusses major factors contributing to China's strong growth in the past four decades. China's low initial per capita income relative to its own long-run potential, combined with sound policy factors including a high investment rate, strong human capital, high trade openness and improved institutions, enabled the economy to converge with advanced economies in terms of income level. The shift-share analysis with industry-level data shows that strong labour productivity growth in the manufacturing sector largely contributed to China's overall labour productivity growth. Although labour reallocation from agriculture to the services sector made a positive contribution to aggregate labour productivity growth, labour productivity growth in the services sector itself was negative over the 1980-2010 period. China's average potential GDP growth is predicted to decline significantly in the coming decade, to 5%-6% and fall further to 3%-4%-due to the convergence effect and structural problems-unless China substantially upgrades its institutions and policy factors and improves productivity, particularly in its services sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working-age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11-15% of gross domestic product ( GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40-60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the linkages between financial development, labour market institutions and market income inequality for 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries over the 1980 to 2012 period. With the help of a dynamic panel data model with an interacted term, one crucial contribution of this article is to analyse the interacted impact of labour market institutions (i.e. union density and employment protection legislation) on the one hand and financial development on the other hand on the income distribution. Our results indicate that changes in the financial/credit and labour market regulation affect the income distribution. Estimates of the marginal effects show that by increasing labour market regulation one also weakens the impact of the flexibilization in the financial/credit market on the increase in income inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theoretical literature on fiscal federalism has identified several channels through which government decentralization could affect economic growth. Much of the literature focuses on the efficiency aspects of a decentralized provision of public services, but decentralization may also increase growth by raising the ability of the political system to innovate and carry out reforms. In contrast, some authors argue that decentralization increases corruption and government inefficiency, and thus may diminish growth. Given this theoretical ambiguity, several studies have attempted to identify the effect of decentralization on economic growth empirically over the last two decades. We review and conduct a meta-analysis of this empirical literature. Based on our analysis, we point out open questions and discuss possible ways to answer them. ( JEL H77, O43, C52) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use satellite imagery on night-time lights to measure growth across states and local government areas in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999. The data suggest that states in southern Nigeria have grown faster on average than states in the north. Using the Ordinary Least Squares, I estimate a relationship between change in night lights and real gross domestic product ( GDP) growth in Africa and use the coefficients to estimate GDP growth for states and local government areas in Nigeria over the period. Finally, I evaluate the effects of violence on growth in Plateau, Yobe and Borno states. I find that the crisis in Plateau state has resulted in slower growth compared with other states in the region. I also show that Yobe and Borno states had performed worse than other states in the north even before the outbreak of violence related to the Boko Haram sect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the need for well-based information about the comparative size of different national economies to understand the events and relationships in the world economy. It mentions the derivation from systematic cross-country comparisons of the prices of the goods and services that enter into gross domestic product (GDP). The concept of a country's systemic relevance in the global economy is also tackled.

A key goal of the COMESA Treaty () was to stimulate sustainable economic growth in the region through increased trade between member states. On the basis of a 1980-2010 annual panel dataset, we examine the contribution of COMESA integration to economic growth in the region using instrumental variables GMM regression in the framework of a cross-country growth model. Contrary to a priori expectation, we find no significant empirical support for a positive growth impact, as yet, on the region from the integration. Growth in capital stock, population, world GDP and the level of openness to international trade turned out to be the most robust drivers of growth in the COMESA region over the period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We reveal evidence that the US aggregate bank dividends exercise a causal impact on the US real GDP growth during the period from the introduction of the Prompt Corrective Action framework in 1992 until the outburst of the subprime mortgage market crisis in 2007. Over this period, the positive signalling effects of bank dividends outperform the negative effect of dividends on default risk. During the pre-Prompt Corrective Action and the recent post-2007 periods, bank dividends do not affect GDP growth. This regime-dependent relation is due to an asymmetric role of bank default risk. These findings are of interest to bank regulators in reassessing the role of bank dividends within Basel III and carry important policy implications as bank dividends constitute an important tool available to policy makers for strengthening real activity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the causal relationships among GDP, export, imports and remittances. The study, among others, investigated the validity of export-led and remittances-led growth hypotheses. Specifically, the study investigated the causal relationship between remittances and GDP, remittances and export and remittances and imports. Employing a VECM Granger Causality for data spanning between 1980 and 2012, imports and remittances significantly Granger-caused GDP in the short run. Also, there were reverse causalities running from GDP to export and imports. This implies that export-led growth hypothesis holds in Nigeria. Furthermore, there was a unidirectional causation running from remittances to GDP, implying that remittances matter for economic growth. But since the effect was more from the demand side, it could lead to inflationary pressure. The policy recommendation is that the authorities should intensify efforts on the export base of the economy. The monetary authorities should implement necessary policy to cool the pressure arising from conspicuous spending of remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to reinvestigate the long run relationship between credit market development and economic growth in Nigeria covering the years between 1981 and 2016 by applying recently developed econometric techniques. In addition to measures of credit market development indicators of domestic credit to the private sector and broad money, trade openness, foreign direct investment and urbanization are also included in estimations to overcome the omitted variable problem. The measure for economic growth used is real gross domestic product. To the best of our knowledge, no study has been conducted before, examining these relationships with all these listed indicators. Therefore, this study proposes to close this gap in the literature. To capture the long run effects, we used ARDL, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimator approaches. Findings uncover that (a) a long run equilibrium relationship exists between credit market development and economic growth, (b) economic policy makers are required to seek after developing the credit market with the main intention of guaranteeing that banks and other money related establishments are enabled and empowered to give the essential funds to the beneficial part of the economy which are urban and private sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study business cycle coherence and phases among UK GDP sectors in the frequency domain. We investigate interactive fluctuations in sectoral output in terms of coherence and phase, focusing on their similarities-dissimilarities and synchronous-asynchronous relations in business cycles. It is further found that longer cycles are dominant cycles, and coherence is the highest in longer cycles and the lowest in medium cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cities and towns of India constitute the world's second largest urban system and contribute over 50% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This phenomenon has been neglected by the existing studies and writings on urban India. By considering 59 large cities in India and employing new economic geography models, this paper investigates the relevant state- and city-specific determinants of urban agglomeration and urban economic growth. In addition, the effect of urban agglomeration on India's urban economic growth is estimated. The empirical results show that agglomeration economies are policy-induced as well as market-determined and offer evidence of the strong positive effect of agglomeration on urban economic growth in India's urban system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While Africa may have overcome its growth tragedy, it is facing a statistical tragedy, in that the statistical foundations of the recent growth in per-capita GDP and reduction in poverty are quite weak. In many countries, GDP accounts use old methods, population censuses are out of date, and poverty estimates are infrequent and often not comparable over time. The proximate reasons have to do with weak capacity, inadequate funding, and a lack of coordination of statistical activities. But the underlying cause may be the political sensitivity of these statistics, and some donors' tendency to go around countries' own National Statistical Development Strategies ( NSDS). Greater openness and transparency of statistics, and a higher profile for the NSDS, possibly with 'naming and shaming' of those who try to circumvent it, may help Africans turn around their statistical tragedy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the residential electricity (RE) demand in Tunisia as a function of household disposable real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the price of electricity (PE) and the degree of urbanization (U) spanning the period 1980–2018. To do that, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound model and Granger causality test are employed to examine the influencing factors of the changes in RE demand, and to discuss the directions of short and long‐run causalities among the variables. The empirical result shows that all variables are integrated of order one, I (1). The Fisher statistics of the Wald test confirms that variables are cointegrated. Long‐run elasticities suggest that, in the long‐run, electricity price and urbanization have a significant and positive impact on RE demand, while real GDP contributes insignificantly to the decrease of RE demand in Tunisia. Granger causality empirics suggests that in short run, there is bidirectional causality between RE demand and electricity price, and between RE demand and urbanization, and a unidirectional causality from real GDP and urbanization to electricity price, and from real GDP to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]