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This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence that demonstrates the importance of digital technologies in promoting economic growth, drawing on the literature on advances in growth and leveraging a broader and more robust country-level panel dataset. In particular, this paper estimates the long-run economic impact of digital technologies using mobile phone penetration and internet usage as broad indicators. The empirical results suggest that, between 2004 and 2014, the diffusion of digital technologies significantly improved economic output in Australia and abroad, contributing to steady-state gross domestic product per capita growth of approximately 5.8 per cent on average. These findings could serve as the starting-point for predictions about the likely impact of future technologies, providing a better understanding for policy-makers in prioritising initiatives that will continue to lift living standards in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the convergence clustering in 31 Chinese provinces regarding several important economic indicators over the period 1952 to 2016 was empirically investigated. Several provincial clusters were identified in the per capita (real) gross domestic product (GDP), consumption–income ratio, retail price, and consumer price inflation rates, using a club convergence and clustering procedure. The empirical findings are as follows. First, it was found that all series of the original data contain a significant nonlinear component. Second, it was observed that there are five significant clusters for the per capita income in China. Third, it was found that there are four significant clusters for the consumption–income ratio. Fourth, it was observed that there are four significant clusters for the retail inflation rates and two significant clusters for the consumer inflation rates in China. These results will enable local and central planners to implement economic growth, savings and price adjustment policies for different groups of provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Fisher's Identity model is established to study Northern Song China's (960-1126) level of velocity of money using money supply and gross domestic product ( GDP) data. Results of the exercise help rationalize what is called the 'bronze coin' puzzle, which is the massive amount of minted coins seemingly incommensurate with price levels. It is shown that the velocity of money was increasing and comparable to pre-industrial England levels. This paper argues that the driving forces of the short supply of money are greater than usual hoarding by the state treasury and coin outflows to Song's trading partners via smuggling. Since velocity of money is an indicator of economic development in ancient societies, this paper provides a realistic validation of the premise of the Needham puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aid donors are interested in understanding whether allocating aid via bilateral or multilateral channels might be more effective for achieving development goals. We review 45 papers that empirically test the associations between bilateral and multilateral aid flows and various development outcomes including gross domestic product growth, governance indicators, human development indicators and levels of nonaid investment flows. Findings suggest that differences between countries and regions, time periods, aid objectives, and individual donor organizations all may influence the effectiveness of aid delivered bilaterally and multilaterally. We find, however, no consistent evidence that either bilateral or multilateral aid is more effective overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the characteristics of the recent African economic growth. The data reveal that during the period 1995-2005, Africa caught up with East Asia in terms of economic growth and investment. However, East Asia has improved its advantage on Africa in terms of GDP per capita and growth fundamentals. African economic growth rate was 2.2 percentage points higher during the period 1995-2005 compared to the period 1975-94. However, between the two periods, only primary education, exports and urbanization have significantly increased in Africa. The other growth determinants have either slightly deteriorated or remained stagnant. The results of growth regressions over the period 1995-2005 indicate that investment, private sector access to credit, government effectiveness, exports and the share of agriculture value added in GDP are significantly linked with economic growth. Thus, compared to the statistical analysis, growth regressions suggest that most of the variables which have significantly contributed to growth recovery are not those variables which have positively evolved in Africa. The good news is that African economies have grown recently without changing many growth fundamentals. The bad news is that the recent African growth recovery may not be sustainable if efforts are not focused on right growth fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, in the context of a spatial model we generalize two indices. One is a dynamic generalization of the emanating effect that was introduced by Kelejian and colleagues. This index describes how events in one unit spill over time to other units due to spatial interactions. As an analogy, it corresponds to the effect that the smoking habits of a given teenager might have on the smoking habits of each of his/her friends. In a sense, our second index, termed the vulnerability index, is the reverse of the first one in that it describes the response of a given unit over time to events in neighbouring units. The analogy here would be how the smoking habits of a given teenager is affected by the smoking habits of all of his/her friends. Second, we empirically implement our indices in the context of a model explaining GDP per capita growth in various countries. In this context the vulnerability index describes the sensitivity of GDP growth in one country with respect to events in other countries; the emanating effect describes how events in one country effect the GDP growth in other countries. Resumen Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar, y dentro del contexto de un modelo espacial, generalizamos dos índices. El primero es una generalización dinámica del efecto de emanación introducido por Kelejian y colaboradores. Este índice describe cómo lo que sucede en una unidad se extiende con el paso del tiempo a otras unidades por motivos de interacciones espaciales. A modo de analogía, se corresponde con el efecto que podría tener el hábito de fumar de un adolescente en el hábito de fumar de cada una de sus amistades. En cierto sentido, nuestro segundo índice, denominado índice de vulnerabilidad, es lo contrario del primero ya que describe la respuesta de una unidad a lo que sucede en unidades vecinas con el paso del tiempo. La analogía en este caso sería el efecto que podrían tener los hábitos de fumar del conjunto de amistades de un adolescente en particular en su consumo de tabaco. En segundo lugar, realizamos una implementación empírica de nuestros índices dentro del contexto de un modelo que explica el crecimiento per cápita del PIB en varios países. Dentro de este contexto, el índice de vulnerabilidad describe la sensibilidad del crecimiento del PIB de un país en relación con lo que sucede en otros países, mientras que el efecto de emanación describe como lo que sucede en un país afecta al crecimiento del PIB de otros países. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time-series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi-directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export-led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the correlation between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of different sources of energy for OPEC Member Countries, the G-7 and three Asian countries, both with and without natural logarithm. In addition, the paper estimates the ratios for total GDP and total energy consumption of different sources of energy and also estimates GDP energy consumption elasticities. The paper concludes that on a per capita basis most OPEC Countries exhibit negative and weak relationships for all forms of energy, including electricity. For the G-7 and Asian countries, this relationship is positive and strong, with the exception of oil for G-7 countries, where there is a weak correlation. Surprisingly, most OPEC Countries showed a comparatively strong and positive correlation when tested for total GDP in relation to total energy consumption of the respective energy sources. The relationship for the rest of the countries remains unchanged. Population might have distorted the results in OPEC Countries. These results suggest that one should be cautious when drawing conclusions and not ignore the aggregate comparison, as this could otherwise lead to wrong results. For G-7 countries, there has been a significant shift in the pattern of energy consumption in relation to GDP when comparing 1960–73 and 1973–2001. All adjusted downward in the later period. However, the greatest adjustment was associated with petroleum consumption. The general conclusion is that wealth creation in G-7 countries is directly associated with the efficient use of all forms of energy. In contrast, most OPEC Countries exhibit a weaker linkage between energy consumption and economic development on a per capita basis, probably due to inefficient usage of resources or due to disproportionate distribution of wealth and thus energy usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. We address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is contingent on the pattern of comparative advantage, following the endogenous growth literature. Our findings suggest that such contingencies do in fact exist-in particular, the correlation between tariffs and growth is strong and positive for skill-abundant countries-and are robust to the choice of control variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Access to finance has always been a challenge for small and medium enterprises ( SMEs ), but the need to address this issue became more pronounced after the global financial crisis, as SMEs are perceived as engines of growth and job creation. However, lack of consistent indicators for SME finance at the country level restricts cross-country analyses. The present paper introduces a supply-side data set to fill this gap, and provides the first set of analyses with this new data set. Global SME lending volume is predicted as $US10tn, 70% of which is in high-income OECD countries. On average, SME loans constitute 13 and 3% of GDP in developed and developing countries, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the 5 per cent significance level for most cases. While we find no evidence of a threshold around 90 per cent, our findings from the post-war sample suggest that the debt threshold for economic growth may exist around a relatively small debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 per cent. Furthermore, countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 30 per cent have GDP growth that is 1 percentage point lower at the median. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the forces that shaped China's interprovincial inequality in the last five decades of Communist rule. In so far as the change in interprovincial inequality is the result of differential growth in provincial GDP per capita and provincial economic growth, it may be decomposed into contributions by total factor productivity (TFP) and other factor inputs. A new method is introduced to make this decomposition. Care is exercised in taking into account problems of Chinese official data when implementing the decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that TFP and factor inputs exerted different and sometimes opposing effects on interprovincial inequality in the Maoist and reform era. The increase in inequality from the mid 1960s to the mid 1970s is due to the contribution of TFP overwhelming that of physical capital. The opposite is true for the 1980s. The increase in the 1990s is mainly driven by the skewed distribution of investments in favor of the richer coastal provinces reinforced by the increasing contribution of TFP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dominant objective within the public policies of all SE Asian countries has been the achievement of economic growth. The issue of sustainability has serious implications for this policy objective. Pursuit of economic growth is concerned solely with the present, whilst sustainability is concerned with ensuring the current generation meets its present needs without threatening future generations' ability to do likewise. National accounts, such as gross domestic product, can measure healthy economies, but they can not measure sustainability. This paper, however, sets out a conceptual approach that describes the misalignment of national accounting measures with sustainability objectives and provides empirical evidence of how this misalignment can be partially overcome. An empirical approach is developed whereby certain adjustments to national accounts, based on normative social choice theory, are introduced to indicate how a partial measure of sustainability can be determined using national accounting aggregates as a base. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written about prospects for US current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a ‘disorderly correction’: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the plausibility of the disorderly adjustment scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000) . We found little evidence among past adjustment episodes of the features highlighted by the disorderly adjustment hypothesis. Although some episodes in our sample experienced significant shortfalls in GDP growth after the onset of adjustment, these shortfalls were not associated with significant and sustained depreciations of real exchange rates, increases in real interest rates or declines in real stock prices. By contrast, it was among the episodes where GDP growth picked up during adjustment that the most substantial depreciations of real exchange rates occurred. These findings do not preclude the possibility that future current account adjustments could be disruptive, but they weaken the historical basis for predicting such an outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a new monthly euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area growth cycle which is composed of nine leading series and derived from a one-sided bandpass filter. The main findings are that (i) the GDP growth cycle in the euro area can be well tracked, in a timely manner and at monthly frequency, by a reference growth cycle indicator (GCI) derived from industrial production excluding construction, (ii) the ALI reliably leads turning points in the GCI by 5 months and (iii) longer leading components of the ALI are good predictors of the GCI up to 9 months ahead. A real-time case study on the ALI's capabilities for signalling turning points in the euro area growth cycle from 2007 to 2011 confirms these findings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the highly debated export-led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using Malaysia as a case study. First, the hypothesis is tested in terms of labour and total factor productivity growth as a potential channel via which exports can affect or be affected by GDP growth. Considering the impact of imports on GDP and productivity growth serves a similar purpose. In addition, GDP is trade-adjusted to avoid the double-counting problem arising from the national income identity. Second, the relationships are examined using the relatively recent Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ) causality tests. These results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores whether the probability of being punished after losing power leads dictators to restrain their level of predation and, thus, increase economic growth. To do so, a simple model of predatory rule is developed, and the consequences of an increasing probability of punishment after loosing power explored. New data on dictators' post-exit fate have permitted to estimate the predicted probability of punishment taking place by using multinomial logit. Outgoing dictators' strength and the international context are shown to be the main determinants of post-exit scenarios. The probability of punishment is proven to have a positive and significant effect on the rate of growth of GDP under alternative specifications of growth regressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to better predictions of the probability of recession. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Chinese economic growth statistics are controversial. In recent years they have been challenged on technical grounds as well as on suspicions of data falsification. Angus Maddison in a 1998 OECD study goes further in that he questions China's long-run growth statistics and proceeds to provide an alternative time series. His average annual real GDP growth rate for China in the reform period (1978 through 1995) is 2.39 percentage points below the official one. Angus Maddison's revisions were subsequently incorporated into the Penn World Tables; his GDP estimates for China, thus, have found their way into numerous cross-country studies. This paper critically examines the validity of Angus Maddison's revisions to official data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the major factors explaining GDP growth in a number of Southeast Asian countries during the 1980s and early 90s. Estimates of the contribution of technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and changes in domestic output prices are reported for Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Partial results for Indonesia and Malaysia are also shown. An index number approach is used; it has a tight theoretical foundation being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last 2 decades, there has been a remarkable proliferation of indices of well-being which assess and rank country performance according to a diverse range of environmental, political, health, social or economic measures. This growth is a clear sign of their political importance, popular appeal and operational relevance in decision-making. This article discusses questions about the validity and scope of summary indices of well-being, as well as explores the relevance of country rankings. Acknowledging that these measures are imperfect, but that they may be the best measures we have, this article discusses how these composite indicators can be improved and how policy-makers should be using them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies suggest the positive causal effects of trade on productivity and growth. However, controversies are still prevalent among vast empirical studies on the issue. In this paper, I propose a standard empirical framework for investigating GDP growth and apply the framework to estimate the growth effects and transmission channels of per capita trade. Based on prior information, theoretical reasoning, and various empirical evidences, I conclude that international trade has positive independent effects on economic performance. A 1% increase in per capita trade raises the equilibrium GDP growth by 0.29%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree of fiscal decentralization in Spain is similar to main federal countries and greater than unitary ones. The demand of public sector decentralization is based on a supposed efficiency gains that is far from being obvious. Using a data set for the Spanish regions, we reject the null hypothesis of a significant relationship between growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and expenditure distribution among fiscal administrations. Nonetheless, we find empirical support for a relationship between revenue decentralization, far less advanced than the expenditure one, and growth. In both cases we do reject the null hypothesis of a nonlinear linkage between fiscal decentralization and growth in per capita GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents tests of whether the kinds of “national” policy variables used to explain cross-country variation in the growth of aggregate GDP per capita can also successfully explain per capita growth in the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors of developing countries. There are four main results of interest. First, relative to nonagriculture, convergence is much slower in agriculture and the burden of population growth is generally much higher. Second, while orthodox economic policies share positive associations with economic growth in the nonagricultural sectors of developing countries, such policies fail to robustly predict variation in agricultural growth. Third, size of government indicators often yield an “unexpected” positive association with agricultural growth. And finally, although there is some evidence that fewer price controls are associated with faster agricultural growth, these associations are statistically quite weak and quantitatively quite small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

One of the prevalent topics in the economic growth literature is the debate between neoclassical, semi-endogenous, and endogenous growth theories regarding the model that best describes the data. An important part of this discussion can be summarized in three mutually exclusive hypotheses: the 'constant trend,' the 'level shift,' and the 'slope shift' hypotheses. In this article we propose the characterization of a country's economic growth path according to these break hypotheses. We address the problem in two steps. First, the number and timing of trend breaks is determined using new structural change tests that are robust to the presence, or not, of unit roots, surpassing technical and methodological concerns of previous empirical studies. Second, conditional on the estimated number of breaks and break dates, a statistical framework is introduced to test for general linear restrictions on the coefficients of the suggested linear disjoint broken trend model. We further show how the aforementioned hypotheses, regarding the economic growth path, can be analyzed by a test of linear restrictions on the parameters of the breaking trend model. We apply the methodology to historical per capita gross domestic product for an extensive list of countries. The results support the three alternative hypotheses for different sets of countries. ( JEL C22, F43, O40) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing global movement to re-define progress beyond gross domestic product (GDP) and develop new measures of equitable and sustainable well-being. GDP's shortcomings as the chief measure of societal progress have been clearly exposed, but it is still widely used in this role, with increasingly adverse consequences. This article examines the lessons from this global movement and the technical and democratic requirements for developing new national progress measures. It focuses on a new Australian project, the Australian National Development Index, which will develop a composite index of national progress and key progress 'domains' through a national community engagement process supported by a cross-disciplinary research program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall goal of this article is to identify major changes in China's agriculture/food economy and their implications for both China itself and, more importantly, to the rest of world. China has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world since late 1970s. GDP grew at about 10% annually in the past 30 years. China's experience shows the importance of both domestic and external policies in achieving sustainable growth. The results from this study provide significant policy implications to many countries that are currently China's major trade partners or those seeking greater economic and trade relations with China. The main conclusions on the implications of China's rapid economic growth are that China's growth will provide more opportunities than challenges to the rest of the world, on average. Overall, the rest of the world will gain from China's economic expansion though this general conclusion may not hold for some countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors study the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. They construct a theoretical framework leading to two-way feedbacks between financial and trade openness and identify these feedbacks empirically. They find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5% increase in de facto financial openness (% of GDP). Similarly, an increase in de facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. De jure restrictions on capital mobility have only a weak impact on de facto financial openness, while de jure restrictions on the current account have a large adverse effect on commercial openness. The authors investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using Geweke's (1982 ) decomposition methodology. They conclude that in an era of rapidly growing trade integration, countries cannot choose financial openness independently of their degree of openness to trade. Dealing with greater exposure to turbulence by imposing restrictions on financial flows is likely to be ineffectual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on the economic developments of European Union (EU) member states outside the euro area in 2006. The real world trade growth of member states was 9 percent and world real gross domestic product (GDP) grew an estimated 5.1 percent. The world economy remained strong despite high oil prices. The U.S. economy which is one of the main drivers of the world economy remained strong, although growth slowed towards the end of 2006 as the housing market cooled along with consumer spending.

Deterioration in the link between M2 and GDP, along with large prediction errors, led the Federal Reserve to downgrade M2 as a reliable indicator in 1993. We argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind this unusual pattern of M2 growth. When constructing measures of M2 based on banks' and thrifts' capital positions, we obtain superior M2 forecasting results and a more stable relationship between M2 and the ultimate goals of policy. M2 may contain useful information when there are no major disturbances to depository institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the concept of economics and economic growth. She cites the explanation of John Kenneth Galbraith, who says that economics remains an ideological defense of the capitalist system, or a resort and occupation of some of the most determined minds. She also mentions other propositions in economics, which all relates economics to the use of words, arithmetic, geometry, and algebra. In order to effectively analyze the global economic system, she further elaborates that the system of national income accounting is best to be considered. Growth, on the hand, is said to be the result of measuring the gross national product or gross domestic product of a country.

The article analyzes the political factors that supports or slows down the economic growth among advanced capitalist societies. It also aims to extract an overview of the factors that influence the growth in advanced industrial societies. The discussions in the study originated mainly in the analysis which is developed by Olson regarding economic growth. Economic growth is defined as the increase in the gross domestic product per capita over time at the constant price. The relationship of domestic political environment in a country and its wealth-creating capacity is also investigated.

The article offers an outlook for the world economy. It is expected that the impact on global growth would be modest, given the limited decline in equity markets. The U.S. housing sector has worsened and set to remain a drag on the overall growth. Based on data on employment and consumption, resilience is seen in the wake of the crisis. The cost of borrowing for firms and consumers have been driven by the repricing of risk and the liquidity squeeze in money markets. Meanwhile, gross domestic product growth in the Eurozone was disappointing at 0.3%.