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This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth--both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components--to four types of natural disasters: droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector autoregressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger on developing than on advanced countries. Second, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and some can even have positive effects on economic growth. Third, severe disasters often carry much worse effects than moderate effects do. Fourth, the timing of the growth response varies with both the type of natural disaster and the sector of economic activity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterized by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper analyses how the functional components of public expenditure and spending‐driven consolidations affect the economic growth, unemployment, and income inequality. A dynamic panel data least squares dummy variable estimator estimator is employed over a sample of 15 European Union countries during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that real GDP growth decreases when fiscal austerity measures are implemented, especially if they are spending‐driven. Cuts in public expenditure undermine economic growth, namely if they slash spending on public order, recreation, and education. Spending cuts on education, in particular, affect the investment in human capital, harming not only growth but also economic, social, and human development. The unemployment rate also proved to be significantly boosted when austerity measures restrict spending on education, whereas income inequality rises when social protection expenditures are cut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the economic impact of the $14 billion preparatory infrastructure investments for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. We use satellite data on night light luminosity at municipality and electoral district level as a proxy for economic activity, applying synthetic control methods for estimation. For the average World Cup municipality, we find significantly positive, short‐run effects before the tournament, corresponding to a reduction of unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. At the electoral district level, we reveal distinct effect heterogeneity, where especially investments in transport infrastructure are shown to have long‐lasting, positive effects, particularly in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a factor-augmented Markov-switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle and its turning points. In the principal components step, 123 variables are used to establish the aggregate cyclicality in all sectors of the economy with the number of factors chosen using a modified Bai and Ng method. By exploiting the rich nature of the dataset, we provide a model with well-defined statistical properties that compares favourably with the South African Reserve Bank ( SARB) dating points. Combining the results of the parametric approach followed in the Markov-switching model and the non-parametric approach followed by the SARB should allow for a robust turning point analysis. A Markov-switching model of real gross domestic product is also estimated because this variable is commonly used in the literature and provides a benchmark for the factor models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surrounding macroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variance decomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most important factors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 per cent of the variance in Colombian GDP growth respectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used to analyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we show that the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growth would be non-negligible but that the decline still would be mild by historical standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social conflicts are a serious obstacle to economic growth in many Latin American societies, affecting economic activity both in the short and the long run. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we develop a methodology to estimate the direct, short-run impact of frequently occurring exponents of local conflicts, such as road blockings, on economic activity. The methodology is based on using high frequency (daily) data to estimate the relation between a proxy for economic activity and the occurrence of road blockings. Careful analysis of impulse-response functions traces the effect of such local social conflicts on economic activity. This information is combined with the aggregate annual time series relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and the high frequency proxy for economic activity to estimate the direct cost of local social conflicts for the economy as a whole. Second, we apply the proposed methodology to analyse the direct economic costs of road blockings in Bolivia, using detailed daily information for the year 2003. The results show that these costs are large. Stronger institutions are a critical factor in reducing the prevalence of such conflicts and to avoid the huge economic costs that they imply. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much has been written about prospects for US current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a ‘disorderly correction’: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the plausibility of the disorderly adjustment scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000) . We found little evidence among past adjustment episodes of the features highlighted by the disorderly adjustment hypothesis. Although some episodes in our sample experienced significant shortfalls in GDP growth after the onset of adjustment, these shortfalls were not associated with significant and sustained depreciations of real exchange rates, increases in real interest rates or declines in real stock prices. By contrast, it was among the episodes where GDP growth picked up during adjustment that the most substantial depreciations of real exchange rates occurred. These findings do not preclude the possibility that future current account adjustments could be disruptive, but they weaken the historical basis for predicting such an outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time-series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961-2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long-run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade-off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the mainstream, resource economics, and ecological economics models of growth. A possible synthesis of energy-based and mainstream models is presented. This shows that when energy is scarce it imposes a strong constraint on the growth of the economy; however, when energy is abundant, its effect on economic growth is much reduced. The industrial revolution released the constraints on economic growth by the development of new methods of using coal and the discovery of new fossil fuel resources. Time-series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate, and energy use Granger causes GDP when capital and other production inputs are included in the vector autoregression model. However, various mechanisms can weaken the links between energy and growth. Energy used per unit of economic output has declined in developed and some developing countries, owing to both technological change and a shift from poorer quality fuels, such as coal, to the use of higher quality fuels, especially electricity. Substitution of other inputs for energy and sectoral shifts in economic activity play smaller roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies, reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by , , and . Since 1980, the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the European Union, Japan, and the US, but there is substantial heterogeneity among services. Personal, finance, and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and GDP. By contrast, shares of distribution services are constant, and productivity growth is rapid. We find that the labour share in value-added is declining, while the use of ICT capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors study the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. They construct a theoretical framework leading to two-way feedbacks between financial and trade openness and identify these feedbacks empirically. They find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5% increase in de facto financial openness (% of GDP). Similarly, an increase in de facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. De jure restrictions on capital mobility have only a weak impact on de facto financial openness, while de jure restrictions on the current account have a large adverse effect on commercial openness. The authors investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using Geweke's (1982 ) decomposition methodology. They conclude that in an era of rapidly growing trade integration, countries cannot choose financial openness independently of their degree of openness to trade. Dealing with greater exposure to turbulence by imposing restrictions on financial flows is likely to be ineffectual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on the economic developments of European Union (EU) member states outside the euro area in 2006. The real world trade growth of member states was 9 percent and world real gross domestic product (GDP) grew an estimated 5.1 percent. The world economy remained strong despite high oil prices. The U.S. economy which is one of the main drivers of the world economy remained strong, although growth slowed towards the end of 2006 as the housing market cooled along with consumer spending.

The article focuses on the business scenario in Egypt. Not only is Egypt a huge country, but it also has a large population which grows at a rate of slightly less than 2% a year. Egypt has undertaken gigantic privatization efforts. However, while welcome from an economic point of view, privatization has deepened inequalities between the southern and northern parts of the country, and thus has led to serious social tensions, which have become major preoccupations for the Egyptian government. The Egyptian economy ranks among the strongest in the Arab world. Services and a declining public sector characterize that economy. Services, including the favorable tourist industry, comprise about 50% of the nation's GDP. Oil and natural gas (reserves) constitute Egypt's most important natural resources. About one third of Egyptians are employed in agriculture even though this sector has declined as major export. Egypt has signed a preferential trade agreement with the European Union, and has been negotiating to secure an association in the European- Mediterranean free-trade zone of 2010. Egypt also enjoys Most Favored Nation status with the United States and has negotiated investment agreements with the United States, Germany, the Great Britain, Sweden, Switzerland, and numerous other nations.

The article analyzes the political factors that supports or slows down the economic growth among advanced capitalist societies. It also aims to extract an overview of the factors that influence the growth in advanced industrial societies. The discussions in the study originated mainly in the analysis which is developed by Olson regarding economic growth. Economic growth is defined as the increase in the gross domestic product per capita over time at the constant price. The relationship of domestic political environment in a country and its wealth-creating capacity is also investigated.

The article focuses on the growth of gross domestic product in Uganda. The projected increase is attributed to private sector construction, electricity, water and transport, and communication sectors. The industry and service sectors will remain key drivers of growth in the medium term. The relative higher level of underlying inflation is attributed to a combination of exchange rate depreciation and the impact of higher global fuel prices.