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A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

Between 1957 and 1990, nearly 100 nuclear reactors were constructed throughout the U.S., and nuclear power currently accounts for 20 percent of electricity production nationwide. Nuclear plants are often constructed in small communities for which they constitute a large source of employment and income. To date, 24 nuclear reactors have undergone decommissioning, and more are expected in the future, particularly as nuclear reactors age and face increasingly strict regulations. This paper examines the effects of nuclear decommissioning over time at the county-level on measures of employment, income, and population using difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching. Panel data are obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and cover the years 1975-2014. The analysis finds that nuclear decommissioning is associated with positive and statistically significant increases in employment and per capita income over time. Results suggest that nuclear decommissioning may actually be a positive force in regional economic development, and concludes with limitations of the approach and implications for future research. As an emerging area of research, this paper is meant to build on previous work, as well as to provide a basis for further discussion and debate on the economic future of nuclear host communities and regional economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using simulations projecting Chinese economic growth into the future, this paper first examines when China will overtake the USA to become the largest economy. Demographic changes that affect economic growth are taken into consideration in these projections. China is expected to become number one sometime in the mid-2020s, unless its growth rate of gross domestic product per worker declines dramatically, à la the lost decade of Japan. Next, the paper examines whether China becoming the number one economy will mean its currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become the international key currency. According to the basket currency regressions during the period that Chinese currency was gradually appreciating against the US dollar from July 2005 to August 2008, it is shown that the RMB has already acquired a strong influence on the Asian currencies. This shows that the RMB is fast gaining the status of a regional anchor currency for a possible regional joint float. As the Chinese government proceeds with internationalization of its currency, the RMB is expected to gain in the ranking of other aspects of international currency, such as the store of value and the medium of exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a novel dynamic propensity score matching approach for multiple cohorts of U.S. counties between 1989 and 1999 to examine local economy resilience to rare natural disasters. Affected counties are sorted based on disaster intensity and are carefully matched to similar counties that did not experience a disaster. A difference-in-difference estimator compares trends of affected counties' postdisaster business establishments, employment, and payroll to counterfactual trends in the matched counties. All affected counties experienced short-run drops in economic activity that was particularly noticeable in higher-intensity disasters. In the longer run, less distressed counties returned to their estimated counterfactual trends, but countieswith lower predisaster socioeconomic conditions still lagged in growth, particularly in cases of lowerintensity disasters. Policymakers can use this information to better prepare responses to future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing States ( SIDS) have narrow resource bases and are usually extremely reliant on fossil fuel based energy for transport and electricity generation. These island economies are thus particularly vulnerable to the impacts of peak oil and also to climate change, impacts which are likely to not only hamper economic development but also adversely affect the quality of life of local inhabitants. In order to reduce the vulnerability of SIDS to peak oil, an urgent transition to renewable sources of energy is necessary. This paper propounds that the reform of power sector that took place in Caribbean and Pacific SIDS (particularly between 1970 and 2000) should have been viewed as an opportunity to re-orient power producers away from the proclivity to utilise conventional fossil fuel uses. Reasons why reform measures did not result in a substantive transition are put forward. Moreover, recommendations towards facilitating a transition to renewable energy in the power sector through future reforms are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on economic development as it relates to indigenous people in the United States and Canada, and focuses on how institutions affect economic development of reservation and reserve economies. Evidence shows that strong property rights to reservation and reserve land and natural resources, whether communal or individual, are and always have been important determinants of productivity. Political and legal institutions that are perceived as stable and predictable to tribal members and to non-Natives also improve economic opportunities for indigenous people living on reservations and reserves. Research reviewed here also shows that culture and acculturation are important in the development process. Although our emphasis is on North America, the findings are applicable to indigenous people in other parts of the world and shed light on growth questions that loom large for developing countries around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a &anger causality test adapted for use with cross-section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross-border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross-border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that "defensive" lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the historical record and time series properties of United States' industrial production for the period 1860 to 1991, utilizing unit root tests and measures of persistence. The results identify a segmented trend model which is used to assess the time-series simulation performance of four well-known models of economic growth: Solow (1957); Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW, 1992); Barro and Sala i Martin (BSM, 1992); and Rebelo (1991). Both the MRW and BSM models dominate the Solow model in accounting for twentieth century industrial growth, high-lighting the importance of human capital, and the paper suggests a new measure related to higher education. However, the Rebelo model explains the post-1973 slowdown more successfully than either of the 'augmented-Solow' approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion of the impact of shocks on US industrial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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A central issue in the debate regarding the relevance of social capital is whether the decline in social embeddedness that has attended modernization over the last 40 years in the United States is as harmful as Putnam, among others, claim it to be. Critics of Putnam's thesis argue that various arms-length institutions fulfil the roles performed by social capital thereby mitigating the negative impact of its recent decline. We develop a framework that provides insight into when such institutions may be adequate and when they might not. We find that if market (economic) and non-market (social) interactions differ in their payoffs but are interlinked through the modernization of the economy, the optimal level of modernization in market interactions will be higher than that in non-market interactions. Further, market supporting institutions are likely to increase the divergence between economic and social interactions since analogs for market institutions that constrain opportunistic behavior are usually nonexistent in social contexts. In this sense, economic progress may be accompanied by social regress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss a method to estimate the confidence bounds for average economic growth, which is robust to misspecification of the unit root property of a given time series. We derive asymptotic theory for the consequences of such misspecification. Our empirical method amounts to an implementation of the subsampling procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf. Simulation evidence supports the theory and it also indicates the practical relevance of the subsampling method. We use quarterly postwar US industrial production for illustration and we show that non-robust approaches rather lead to different conclusions on average economic growth than our robust approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published QUARTERLY in the interest of constructive synthesis in the social sciences, under grants from the FrancisNeilsonFund and the RobertSchalkenbachFoundation.Founded in 1941Volume 64 April, 2005 Number 2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The objectives of this study were to examine (1) the linkage from airports to regional talent distribution and (2) the effect of talent on regional economic development. Methods: Using the data collected in Wisconsin at the municipal level, a subcounty level, in a region of the North Central United States from 1970 to 2010 and the American Community Survey 2006–2010 five‐year estimates, and random effects models and structural equation models, we employ descriptive and inferential statistics to examine the linkage from airports to talent to regional economic development. Results: We find that the farther a location is away from the airport, the lower its talent share tends to be, while greater passenger flow at the nearest airport increases a location's talent share. Given the quantity of passenger flow, a longer distance from the airport also reduces a location's talent share. The results furthermore suggest that economic development is impacted positively by passenger flow and talent share and negatively by distance to an airport. Conclusion: Our results underscore the intermediate role of talent between airports and regional economic development; building the linkage from airports to talent within the context of regional economic development provides important insights for local policy making aimed at attracting talented migrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between casinos and economic growth in the U.S. Using county-level data on the 48 contiguous states from 2003 to 2012, we estimate the effect of casinos on per capita income growth and job creation. Our research procedures include examining the relationship using level-to-level panel data, and 3-year and 10-year differenced data. An instrumental variable approach is also considered to account for potential endogeneity of the casino variable. Although, the instruments are both relevant and exogenous, test results found insufficient evidence of endogeneity in our panel data models. In addition, we estimate a spatial error model (SEM) to account for the unobserved spatial characteristics that may affect economic growth in the counties but are not captured by our conventional econometric models. Our results show that casinos had a positive effect on per capita income; casino expansions exerted a small, positive effect on both per capita income growth and job growth. However, the effect of casino expansions on 10-year per capita income growth dissipated when we controlled for the spatial autocorrelation in our model. Nevertheless, the SEMs results also suggest that casino expansions continued to have a positive effect on the 2003-2012 job growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the role of universities in the economic development of American metropolitan regions during the Great Recession (2007-2009) and the growth period prior to it (2001-2007). It develops a supply-side conceptual framework on the role of universities in technology-led regional economic development. Specifically, this framework highlights three 'university products' that can be explicitly defined and measured: educational services, business services, and new knowledge or technology. The empirical test of this conceptual framework finds that the presence of universities is positively associated with regional economic performance during the Great Recession, mainly via the educational services product. Findings indicate that regions with a higher level of university science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates are more resilient to the economic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the author's work, this lecture presents evidence on U.S. income and wealth inequality. It presents series for top income and wealth shares, and the distribution of economic growth by income groups. It discusses the mechanisms behind the evolution of U.S. income and wealth inequality from historical and comparative perspectives. It analyzes the role of public policy and in particular taxation in the evolution of inequality. ( JEL D31, F66, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article profiles Barry K. Goodwin, a Fellow of the American Agricultural Economics Association in 2006. Goodwin's various affiliations and awards are presented. He is William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor at the Departments of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Economics from 2003 and up to the present in 2006. He is also the Associated Editor of the "American Journal of Agricultural Economics" from 1999 to 2001. He develops a deep interest in the quantitative analysis of markets and policy issues important to agriculture.

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056-0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82-211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70-80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own- and other-R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own-state R&D elasticity but the highest other-R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives The literature typically undervalues the economy-wide importance of confidence, despite a renewed interest since the recent financial crisis in considering also psychological factors such as confidence. This study empirically assesses whether confidence matters for current real GDP growth in the euro area and the United States in addition to a widely applied and reliable predictor, the Purchasing Managers' Index. Methods We add confidence indicators to a regression of real GDP growth on the composite PMI output index and check for a different impact of confidence during recessions as opposed to expansions by applying smooth transition regressions. Results Confidence matters for economic growth, both in good and bad times. This result is robust across sample periods, models, and proxies for confidence. Conclusions Confidence is essential for assessing the current stage of the business cycle. Analysts should therefore closely monitor sentiment swings, whereas private and public decisionmakers can boost growth by improving confidence in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identifies the determinants of growth for male and female business ownership in a subset of U.S. counties. The results indicate that there are important characteristic and behavioral differences between the male and female populations in each county that affect regional changes in business ownership for each gender. In particular, the education level of males and females as well as the local family structure impact the propensity for firms owned by each gender differently. A Blinder-Oaxaca type decomposition, a novel approach in the context of regional outcomes, demonstrates that although the effect of characteristic differences is larger, the behavioral differences are key to narrowing the gender disparity in business ownership. ( JEL L26, R2, R3) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modify the standard nutritional efficiency wage model to allow for the fact that employers can directly provide calories to their workers rather than paying a higher wage to induce employees to spend more on their own caloric consumption. We derive the various theoretical outcomes that are possible depending on the assumptions about the transaction costs of directly providing calories. We argue that in most real-world situations the ability of employers to directly provide calories undermines the traditional efficiency wage theory as a cause of equilibrium unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Has the progress of output convergence changed within the United States? This article examines the output convergence among U.S. states for the last five decades by making several improvements over the extant literature. By applying a battery of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real output per worker data (i.e., nominal values deflated by state-level price), we find that output convergence has not been a feature of the continental United States since the 1970s. Instead, output convergence has proceeded among four subgroups within which constituent states have certain characteristics in common. Our regression analysis suggests that state-level characteristics related to technology and human capital play a crucial role in accounting for the formation and composition of convergence clubs, in agreement with the recent theoretical models of growth and development (e.g., Aghion et al. 2009; Gennaioli et al. 2013b). The level of technology, proxied by patents, turns out to be a consistently significant determinant even after controlling for endogeneity, suggesting that frictions in the diffusion of technology and human capital may have led to clustering of states with different levels of productivity. Our results therefore cast doubt on the common view that diffusion of knowledge and technology across state borders is frictionless. ( JEL O47, O51) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short-sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long-run distortions in the economy, reducing long-term economic growth. ( JEL H72, H73, H76) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity presents an obstacle to economic development in the western United States. Water rights markets help improve water allocation, allowing states to derive the highest economic benefit from available resources, and supporting new uses and economic development. However, the implicit (marginal) prices of water rights attributes are uncertain. To address this problem, we apply econometric analysis to a unique dataset to estimate the implicit values that market participants place on the attributes of shares of ditch company water rights in Colorado's South Platte River Basin. Our analysis demonstrates that ditch company share buyers value proximity of water diversion, reliability of water deliveries, and temporal flexibility of water use. To assess reliability we introduce the use of the coefficient of variation to capture, in one variable, the randomness of supply from ditch company shares that are not a single water right, but a portfolio of rights with different appropriation dates. Finally, we test and correct for spatial autocorrelation for the first time in a study of water market prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimated one-third to one-half of Salvadorans who carry remittances and goods between El Salvador and the United States are women. Scholars studying these viajeras argue that their work simultaneously represents a break from traditional gender relations confining women to the home and an extension of gender traits that favor women in developing social ties. Although social ties are crucial to the courier trade, this argument ignores antecedents to viajeras' work in El Salvador and suggests that transnationalism pushes women into realms of labor and physical mobility that have been gendered masculine. Using ethnographic methods, I examine the relationship between women's historical work in El Salvador and their current work as viajeras, as well the relationship between viajeras' experiences and those of women transnational traders in other parts of the world. My findings contribute to a small but growing body of research suggesting that instead of merely being excluded from or manipulated by global processes, many women in the Global South have expanded the realm of their activities to help shape variable forms of global capitalism. Studying how they do so sheds light on local mechanisms for combating gender inequality and promoting development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies explore the linkages between health behaviors and macroeconomic outcomes. This study uses 1971-2007 state-level data from the United States to estimate the impact of beer consumption on economic growth. We document that beer consumption has negative effects on economic growth measures once the endogeneity of beer consumption is addressed. Our estimates are robust to a range of specification checks. These findings run parallel to a large body of literature documenting substantial social and economic costs stemming from alcohol use. ( JEL I1, O4) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the development of local economies often point to large-scale Second World War military spending as a source of economic growth, even though spending declined sharply after demobilization. We examine the relationship between war spending per capita and the changes in economic activity in US counties between 1939 before the war and a period several years after the war. In the longer term counties receiving more war spending per capita during the war experienced greater population growth, but growth in per capita measures of economic activity showed little relationship with per capita war spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that financial market development contributed to the rise in the skill premium and residual wage inequality in the United States since the 1980s. We present an endogenous growth model with imperfect credit markets and establish how improving the efficiency of these markets affects modes of production, innovation, and wage dispersion between skilled and unskilled workers. The experience of U.S. states following banking deregulation provides empirical support for our hypothesis. We find that wages of skilled workers increased by between 0.5% and 6.3% following deregulation while those of unskilled workers fell by between 3.5% and 8.7%. Similarly, residual (or within-group) inequality increased; the 90-50 percentile ratio of residuals from a Mincerian wage regression and their standard deviation increased by 4.2% and 1.7%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single-purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general-purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI-related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per-capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high-income countries only, otherwise slowing it down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the current economic status of the areas surrounding major U.S. container ports. We define a “port district” as the geographic area within a 7.5-mile radius of a port. Our sample includes the 10 largest container ports in the U.S. We find that when we compare port districts to their surrounding metropolitan areas, household unemployment and poverty rates are significantly higher in port districts. Thus, the same ports that serve as “economic engines” for the region and nation may be the cause of economic decline and deterioration in the immediate areas that surround them. This presents a challenge for policy makers who want to preserve the benefits of international trade while facing increasing opposition to port expansion by local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the global economy, which the article asserts is suffering from serious imbalances characterised by a deterioration of the U.S. current account deficit, rapid increases in oil and raw material prices, and excessive international liquidity. The article compares these issues with the rapidly growing Chinese economy, which is suffering from serious imbalances of another kind, characterised by rapid increases in the so-called "twin surpluses" (current account and capital account surpluses), persistence of excessive investment, acute energy shortages, deterioration of the environment, and the rapid widening of income gaps. Programs adopted by the Chinese government aimed at achieving a more balanced and sustainable growth pattern are discussed.

The article aims to present a conceptual framework for the analysis of ecosystem services (ES) supply in the U.S. It will also discuss some of the data and modeling issues that arise in predicting farmers' participation in ES contracts and the supply of ES resulting from them. To frame the discussion, the researchers outline a model of the supply of ES that illustrates the ways that spatial and system complexity can affect it. This model is used to discuss the data and modeling issues that arise in empirical implementation.

We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 period We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model over this period according to a mean squared forecast error metric. However, tests based on forecast encompassing indicate that many financial variables do, in fact, contain information that is useful for forecasting real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 out-of-sample period. Our results suggest that the extant literature exaggerates the demise of the forecasting power of financial variables with respect to real activity since the mid-1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on various techniques for economic development practices in the cities of Ontario. It offers a comparative study of the economic development practices in U.S. cities and cities in Ontario. It mentions that the most of the techniques are practiced in the area of marketing. It lists the ten most extensively employed economic techniques, including promotional literature, trade shows and visits to prospects. It states that infrastructure improvement, land based incentives and industrial zoning are other important techniques. It states that financial incentives like loans and tax abatements are most common in Ontario cities. It also mentions the economic effect of the limitation on bonuses as practiced in the Ontario cities.

Examines the external debt of Mexico and its impact on the country's agricultural trade with the U.S. Effects of the external debt on the country's economic growth; Assessment of the macroeconomic policies and agricultural sector behavior in the country; Changes in Mexican-U.S. agricultural trade.

The article reflects on the timeliness of the topic of ecosystem services (ES) in the arena of agricultural policy in the U.S. According to the author, policies and programs founded in ES science and economics can provide genuine alternatives to decades of commodity-based federal farm policy. The evolution of agricultural policy as it transforms to incorporate ES measures and transactions is uncertain. It will be marked by analytic challenges and policy retreats to old ways. ES assessments will enable budget allocation, planning and priority setting on the part of public agencies.

Presents an overview of articles on economic policy agenda for the 21st century. Definition of the U.S. economic policy agenda; Analysis of the challenges of stimulating economic growth in Europe; Examination of the changes in European competition policy.