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The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply‐side productivity changes on long‐term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity–neutral demand‐rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian output, whereas labour productivity shocks have significant, positive and permanent effects. Simulations using a global intertemporal multisector general equilibrium model suggest that labour productivity shocks increase the foreign GDP over time, but rebalancing shocks have a negative international spillover effect. In addition, labour productivity shocks help in rebalancing. Structural reforms promoting labour productivity growth along with rebalancing policies across Asia can achieve higher economic growth worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the highly debated export-led growth hypothesis in a number of different ways using Malaysia as a case study. First, the hypothesis is tested in terms of labour and total factor productivity growth as a potential channel via which exports can affect or be affected by GDP growth. Considering the impact of imports on GDP and productivity growth serves a similar purpose. In addition, GDP is trade-adjusted to avoid the double-counting problem arising from the national income identity. Second, the relationships are examined using the relatively recent Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ) causality tests. These results have major implications and are necessary to reassess the effectiveness of trade policy as a strategy for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimated static welfare gains from international trade are very small, on the order of one percent of GDP. The case for free trade is therefore increasingly linked to trade’s apparent positive effects on economic growth. But how large are these growth effects? The vast empirical literature has emphasized the statistical significance, not the economic significance, of the trade-growth relationship. This survey’s re-examination of the empirical literature focuses on the size of the relationship between trade and growth. Our survey reveals that the many empirical studies are surprisingly consistent in terms of the size of the relationship: A one percentage point increase in the growth of exports is associated with a one-fifth percentage point increase in economic growth. Given the power of compounding, the effect of trade on growth is very important for human welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]