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This paper analyses the liberalisation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico since the late 1980s, and its relationships with exports and imports. Such a process has eased the access of multinational corporations (MNCs) to the country, which has promoted exports. However, it has also resulted in a higher import content and the displacement of local firms, which has limited Mexico's economic development through the balance of payments constraint. The analysis is supported by the existence of linkages – bidirectional Granger causality – between exports, imports and FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re-examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overview: darkness before the dawn? A number of indicators suggest the global economy may decelerate into the year-end., One especially worrying development is an apparent renewed softening in world trade growth. Our OE export indicator dropped in October to its lowest level since May 2013 and some other trade indicators (e.g. for container trade) have also been subdued., At a country level, growth has remained subdued in the Eurozone, prompting another slight forecast downgrade this month. Japan meanwhile slipped back into technical recession in Q3., Emerging markets remain mixed but with an overall soft tone. Among the BRIC economies there are few signs yet of a significant cyclical upturn - and in Russia the situation has deteriorated further., There has been better news from the US, where Q3 growth again came in at an annualised rate above 3% and jobs growth continues at over 200,000 a month. Consumer spending growth ebbed a little in Q3 but we expect it to pick up in the quarters ahead., Despite some gloomy near-term signals, there are a number of key positive factors for 2015 and beyond. The first is the fall in oil prices - now almost 30% down from the June peak - which will support consumer spending and lower business costs., And global policy settings are becoming more supportive. Though the US has now ended asset purchases, the Bank of Japan has announced a big increase in asset purchases. And with the ECB suggesting a possible €1 trillion increase in its balance sheet, the flow of central bank policy support in 2015/16 may not be very different from 2014., Fiscal policy may also be moving in a more positive direction. The Eurozone seems to be edging away from austerity while in Japan there is a strong possibility that the second rise in the consumption tax, planned for Q4 2015, will be delayed., These positive factors mean that we expect world GDP growth to firm from 2.6% in 2014 to 2.8% next year. This will be the best year since 2011, though growth will remain sub-par for a recovery period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of international trade on output and tests the null of Granger non-causality between trade and economic growth in Australia. The single-equation IV-GMM, DOLS, FMOLS and NLLS and the system-based ML estimates consistently support the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The effects of imports are consistently negative across all the estimates. The OLSEG, RLS and ARDL-ECM estimates provide a mixed and weak and that overparameterised level-VAR estimates no support for the effects of trade on output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks provide a dominant support for the cointegrating relationship among variables. In conclusion, the evidence supporting the positive and significant long-run effects overwhelms the evidence providing a mixed, weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results of the study can be inductively generalised to mimic the findings of the literature at large and to suggest that a part of the inconclusiveness over the gains of trade could analogously be ascribed to the use of different methodologies and test statistics across studies. The results support the acceleration of exports and investment to foster the higher levels of output and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]