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A more polycentric global development landscape has emerged over the past decade or so, rupturing the formerly dominant North–South axis of power and knowledge. This can be traced through more diversified development norms, institutions, imaginaries and actors. This paper looks at one trend within this turbulent field: namely, the ways in which ‘Northern’ donors appear to be increasingly adopting some of the narratives and practices associated with ‘Southern’ development partners. This direction of travel stands in sharp contrast to expectations in the early new millennium that the (so‐called) ‘traditional’ donors would ‘socialise’ the ‘rising powers’ to become ‘responsible donors’. After outlining important caveats about using such cardinal terms, the paper explores three aspects of this ‘North’ to ‘South’ movement. These are (i) the stronger and more explicit claim to ‘win‐win’ development ethics and outcomes; (ii) the (re)turn from ‘poverty reduction’ to ‘economic growth’ as the central analytic of development; and (iii) related to both, the explicit and deepening blurring and blending of development finances and agendas with trade and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic historians have recently treated Islamic institutions as "growth retarding," "averse to change," "path dependent," "lacking creative destruction" and "extractive" rather than "inclusive" and blamed their failure to change for the underdevelopment of the Middle East. This paper argues for a different approach to Islamic institutions which implies that they boosted economic growth. The paper explores changes in economic structures, a transition in population levels from high to low and a transition to individual property rights and provides economic indicators of growth. Articulated via Islamic law, legally sanctioned birth control and women's property rights were instrumental in assuring low fertility rates and equitable and well‐distributed income in the population. The paper concludes theoretically and empirically that Islamic institutions were innovative, amenable to change and efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a list of papers presented to the 1963 Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. The conference was held during June 23-28, 1963. There were five sessions, which covered topics like national incomes, growth rates, economic growth, etc. Some of the papers were "Rates of Growth in Israel's Economy," by A.L. Gaathon; "A Statistical Evaluation of the Rate of Growth of National Income in Postwar Japan," by M. Shinohara; "Reliability and Usefulness of Short-Term National Accounts: Australia," by Don Youngman; and "New Evidence on Demand Elasticities," by H.S. Houthakker.

This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence that demonstrates the importance of digital technologies in promoting economic growth, drawing on the literature on advances in growth and leveraging a broader and more robust country-level panel dataset. In particular, this paper estimates the long-run economic impact of digital technologies using mobile phone penetration and internet usage as broad indicators. The empirical results suggest that, between 2004 and 2014, the diffusion of digital technologies significantly improved economic output in Australia and abroad, contributing to steady-state gross domestic product per capita growth of approximately 5.8 per cent on average. These findings could serve as the starting-point for predictions about the likely impact of future technologies, providing a better understanding for policy-makers in prioritising initiatives that will continue to lift living standards in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore determinants of job reallocation, employment change and average job tenure in this paper. A model which associates technological advances with the process of economic growth is modified and analysed. The features of this model allow for the possibility of asymmetric behaviour when looking at the net change in employment. Workplace data from Australia (AWIRS95) are used to test the predictions generated from the model for both employment change and average job tenure. Results are presented that provide clear evidence as to the nature of workplaces in which net employment growth is concentrated. We find that employment growth is asymmetrically related to expected changes in demand for the output of the workplace. We also find that employment is lower for workplaces that are larger, older, have greater union density, offer higher relative earnings, or are operating in a more competitive environment. The impacts on average tenure are as expected from the model and from these changes in employment. Overall there is a substantial degree of agreement between the predictions of the model and our empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between foreign aid and economic growth has been the subject of much controversy. A recent theme suggesting that aid promotes growth, but only in a good policy environment has ratchet up that debate. In this paper, we assess the importance of policy and aid in generating growth when the aid, policy, and growth relationship is nonlinear. This allows us to examine the varying effects of aid and policy in different data segments, which we do without imposing any particular structure on the underlying relationship. We find that policy is an important determinant of growth. We also find partial corroboration of the view that aid is growth enhancing in a good policy environment, and some evidence of diminishing returns to aid. These findings suggest that nonlinearities if not appropriately addressed fail to capture the detailed underlying dynamics and thereby mask some key features of the aid-policy-growth relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The private sector, after shifting fortunes in development theory and practice over the years, is now widely recognised as the key to economic growth, which itself is indispensable for poverty reduction. The Development Studies Association (DSA) Annual Conference in 2006 brought together academics, private sector actors, NGOs and policy makers to share insights and experiences on how this vital contribution to growth, development and poverty reduction can be realised. This paper summarises the main themes and discussions of the conference and introduces the papers selected for inclusion in this conference issue. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on currency and banking crises. Currency and banking crises are characterized according to some standards in the literature and their historical record summarized. The development of the literature from first through fourth-generation, or so-called ‘institutional’ models is reviewed. A digression on institutions is provided along with some sidebars on the development of the literature on institutions as it relates to economic growth. The empirical research on third-generation (or twin crises) models and on institutional models of currency and banking crises, which are so far scarce, is covered too. A summary of the main policy issues for dealing with financial crises is presented. The paper closes with an emphasis on institutions and a call for more research directed at institutions and their role in the financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Economic base (or export‐base) theory (EBT) is often presented as a Keynesian‐inspired theory that only accounts for demand‐side factors. However, the recent integration of supply‐side factors into economic base models (EBMs) can contribute to renewing applications of this type of model in regional economics. This paper proposes a literature review focused on new EBMs that explicitly take into account supply effects and includes both North American and European studies. It first explains why integrating supply‐side factors is relevant for EBMs. Second, the paper shows how to integrate these supply‐side factors into the various types of models, focusing on two production factors: land and its amenities and labor. Third, the paper discusses the conditions for integrating such supply‐side factors into EBMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability is an important topic in the development process of urban agglomerations. Sustainability assessment is an effective way to monitor the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Based on the three‐pillars model, the paper assessed the sustainability of the three major urban agglomerations in China by selecting 18 indicators from economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A new sustainability‐differentiation‐combined weighting method was proposed, which considers the sustainability at indicator level as well as highlights the difference at urban agglomeration level. The assessment results show that the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration performed best, followed by the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration and the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration. However, the sustainability level of the three urban agglomerations was not high. It primarily caused by the downward development trend of economic sustainability of the three urban agglomerations. And the YRD and PRD urban agglomerations had lower performances on social sustainability. The spatial sustainability of the urban agglomerations was also analyzed, and the results show the spatial linkage development within the urban agglomerations was poor. Based on these findings, some valuable suggestions were provided as reference for the sustainability construction of the urban agglomerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Fisher's Identity model is established to study Northern Song China's (960-1126) level of velocity of money using money supply and gross domestic product ( GDP) data. Results of the exercise help rationalize what is called the 'bronze coin' puzzle, which is the massive amount of minted coins seemingly incommensurate with price levels. It is shown that the velocity of money was increasing and comparable to pre-industrial England levels. This paper argues that the driving forces of the short supply of money are greater than usual hoarding by the state treasury and coin outflows to Song's trading partners via smuggling. Since velocity of money is an indicator of economic development in ancient societies, this paper provides a realistic validation of the premise of the Needham puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land finance has become one of the important major sources of fiscal revenue for Chinese local governments. The spatial allocation of land use constitutes a land‐leasing policy operation of local officials, contributing to local economic development and fluctuation. Applying data from 283 prefectural units from 2003 to 2012, this paper explores the existence of land finance cycles, focussing on the changes of the amount (as in 'area') of land‐leasing by negotiation or by auction. The empirical results suggest that land finance cycles synchronise with the PCCP (Provincial Congress of the Communist Party) cycles, in which a prefectural leader decreases the amount of land leased through negotiation and increases that of land leased through auction prior to the year of the PCCP. The findings of empirical results are consistent with the prediction of our theoretical model. Additionally, due to the existence of high uncertainty of prefectural leaders' tenure and political turnover, the effect of prefectural leaders' tenure on land finance cycles is more apparent in the early years of their tenure. The results indicate that Chinese leaders' fiscal strategies are likely to be driven by career concerns for the purpose of maximising a measured economic performance and fiscal rents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the convergence clustering in 31 Chinese provinces regarding several important economic indicators over the period 1952 to 2016 was empirically investigated. Several provincial clusters were identified in the per capita (real) gross domestic product (GDP), consumption–income ratio, retail price, and consumer price inflation rates, using a club convergence and clustering procedure. The empirical findings are as follows. First, it was found that all series of the original data contain a significant nonlinear component. Second, it was observed that there are five significant clusters for the per capita income in China. Third, it was found that there are four significant clusters for the consumption–income ratio. Fourth, it was observed that there are four significant clusters for the retail inflation rates and two significant clusters for the consumer inflation rates in China. These results will enable local and central planners to implement economic growth, savings and price adjustment policies for different groups of provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we compare three functional regression models from a growth curve perspective to predict the relationship between two economic variables, specifically we compare a functional concurrent model, a functional historical model and a functional autoregressive model (FAR). The dependent and the independent variables are cumulated over the annual time window for the growth curve analyses. These models are used to predict exports (real) for the South African economy in terms of electricity demand. The data analysed consist of 33 years of exports (in ZAR million) at annual quarterly frequency, and electricity demand (in GwH) at monthly totals. Exploratory analysis included phase‐plane plots for the two series. For the prediction exercise, the baseline concurrent model was evaluated against the other two models, and their performance compared using the root‐mean‐square error (RSME) measure, the relative performance in terms of the ratio of the RMSEs, and a Kolmogorov–Smirnov based hypothesis test to compare the distributions of the RMSEs of the models. Our results show that from the growth curve perspective, for the prediction of exports in terms of electricity for the SA economy, the FAR model of lag(1) outperforms both the concurrent model and the historical model by far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand how the determinants of economic growth in Brazil may manifest themselves differently on various spatial scales between 1991 and 2000. Analysing this issue sheds light on the modifiable areal unit problem (a measurement issue). In addition, it also suggests potential explanations for the origin of this variability. This latter issue relates to the scale-dependent determinants of economic growth (a structural issue). The analysis reveals that the results change as the scale level changes and suggests a general framework for dealing with multiple spatial scales and model uncertainty. Moreover, the extent of the effects of spatial externalities and the issue of spatial heterogeneity are investigated. Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es entender como los factores determinantes del crecimiento económico de Brasil pueden mostrarse de manera diferente según la escala espacial entre 1991 y 2000. El análisis de este tema ilustra el problema de la unidad de superficie modificable (problema de medición). Además, sugiere también posibles explicaciones para el origen de esta variabilidad. Este último asunto esta relacionado con los factores dependientes de la escala que determinan el crecimiento económico (un problema estructural). El análisis revela que los resultados cambian a medida que lo hace la escala y sugiere un marco general para tratar con escalas espaciales múltiples y modelización de incertidumbre. Además, se investiga el alcance de los efectos de las externalidades espaciales y el problema de la heterogeneidad espacial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability and population-economic growth. The paper differs from previous population-economic growth analyses by focusing on instability of economic growth in developing countries. This study contributes to a previous paper on the developing country growth collapse by adding important demographic variables. The paper provides an explanation for 'new' negative correlations of population and economic growth: because 1960s were a relatively smooth time for economic growth, youth dependency did not seem important; however, during turbulent 1970s and 1980s, countries with falling dependency burdens weathered economic shocks better. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents abstracts on several topics of economics including growth and structural changes in employment in transition China, the contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India and Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049.

No empirical evidence has yet emerged for the existence of a robust positive relationship between financial openness and economic growth. This paper argues that a key reason for the elusive evidence is the presence of a time-varying relationship between openness and growth: countries tend to gain in the short term, immediately following capital account liberalization, but may not grow faster or even experience temporary growth reversals in the medium to long term. The paper finds substantial empirical evidence for the existence of such an intertemporal tradeoff for 45 industrialized and emerging market economies. The acceleration of growth immediately after liberalization is found to be often driven by an investment boom and a surge in portfolio and debt inflows. By contrast, the quality of domestic institutions, the size of FDI inflows and the sequencing of the liberalization process are found to be important driving forces for growth in the medium to longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the role of the internal real exchange rate as a competitiveness indicator in economic growth among provinces in China. Using data from 28 Chinese provinces for the period 1992-2008 together with dynamic panel data estimation, the results reveal a positive effect of real exchange rate appreciation on economic growth. In other words, a competitive internal real exchange rate has not been found to support provincial economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of financial development on economic growth in a sample of 32 Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. The countries were grouped into four sub‐regions, and data were collected for the period 1990–2016 on finance and growth indicators on an annual basis. In the estimation procedure, panel estimation and dynamic panel techniques were used. When the disaggregated components of financial development variables were used, findings, among others, reveal the role of credit to the private sector by banks (CPB) even though mixed, to have more impact on growth followed by broad money (BM) and liquidity liability (LL). However, an aggregated index of the financial development indicators via principal component analysis and their simultaneous interaction with human capital improvement brought about a greater positive impact on growth throughout the sub‐regions and the entire SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aid donors are interested in understanding whether allocating aid via bilateral or multilateral channels might be more effective for achieving development goals. We review 45 papers that empirically test the associations between bilateral and multilateral aid flows and various development outcomes including gross domestic product growth, governance indicators, human development indicators and levels of nonaid investment flows. Findings suggest that differences between countries and regions, time periods, aid objectives, and individual donor organizations all may influence the effectiveness of aid delivered bilaterally and multilaterally. We find, however, no consistent evidence that either bilateral or multilateral aid is more effective overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a principles-based government program resourcing decision framework that is designed to produce efficiency and equity through objectively determined decisions. The framework examines the appropriate role for government intervention through the application of a market failure test. It then guides the decision maker to identify the most appropriate government initiative to put in place and to establish the most efficient cost-recovery mechanism. The framework has been endorsed by the NSW Department of Industry for program evaluation purposes and within the NSW Biosecurity Strategy. This framework would be suitable for application to all government programs/initiatives across all tiers of government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the characteristics of the recent African economic growth. The data reveal that during the period 1995-2005, Africa caught up with East Asia in terms of economic growth and investment. However, East Asia has improved its advantage on Africa in terms of GDP per capita and growth fundamentals. African economic growth rate was 2.2 percentage points higher during the period 1995-2005 compared to the period 1975-94. However, between the two periods, only primary education, exports and urbanization have significantly increased in Africa. The other growth determinants have either slightly deteriorated or remained stagnant. The results of growth regressions over the period 1995-2005 indicate that investment, private sector access to credit, government effectiveness, exports and the share of agriculture value added in GDP are significantly linked with economic growth. Thus, compared to the statistical analysis, growth regressions suggest that most of the variables which have significantly contributed to growth recovery are not those variables which have positively evolved in Africa. The good news is that African economies have grown recently without changing many growth fundamentals. The bad news is that the recent African growth recovery may not be sustainable if efforts are not focused on right growth fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theoretical literature has discussed different channels through which foreign direct investments (FDI) promote host country's economic growth, but empirical analyses have so far been rather inconclusive. In this paper, exploiting the information of a disaggregated data set on a panel of 14 manufacturing sectors for (a sample of) developed and developing countries over the period 1992-2004, we are able to provide robust evidence on the positive and statistically significant growth effect of FDI in recipient countries. Moreover, we find that this effect is stronger in capital-intensive and technologically advanced sectors. The growth enhancing effect comes primarily from an increase in total factor productivity (TFP) and from factors accumulation. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth and to controlling for potential endogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether related variety, among other types of spatial externalities, affected regional growth in Spain at the NUTS 3 level during the period 1995-2007. We found evidence that related variety matters for growth across regions, especially when using two new methods that measure revealed relatedness between industries. The first method is based on Porter's cluster classification while the second method uses the proximity index proposed by Hidalgo et al. Our analyses show that Spanish provinces with a wide range of related industries tend to show higher economic growth rates, once we control for other determinants of growth. Este artículo investiga si la variedad relacionada, entre otros tipos de externalidades espaciales, afectó el crecimiento regional en España a nivel NUTS 3 durante el periodo 1995-2007. Hallamos pruebas de que la variedad relacionada influye en el crecimiento entre regiones, especialmente al utilizar dos métodos nuevos que miden el grado de conexión manifiesto entre industrias. El primer método está basado en la clasificación de conglomerados de Porter, mientras que el segundo método utiliza el índice de proximidad propuesto por Hidalgo et al. Nuestros análisis muestran que las provincias españolas con un amplio rango de industrias relacionadas tienden a mostrar tasas de crecimiento económico más altas, una vez que se logra controlar otros factores determinantes del crecimiento. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic crisis has had significant short-term effects in most countries around the world, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. Many of the economies are now expected to begin recovering, although the recovery is anticipated to be protracted, uneven across indicators and countries, and may be fragile. Despite the recovery, will the crisis have long-term consequences for human development and Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements in Africa? If so, what are the mechanisms through which such impacts could take place, and what is the role for policy? This paper seeks to address these questions by examining the evidence from similar episodes in the past, and by using a simple framework to assess the long-term impact on human development including trends towards the MDGs. Using growth projections to 2014 for the countries in the region, and a range of observed trends, it models possible impacts on the MDGs, and demonstrates how the crisis could lead to real slow-downs or reversals in the rate of progress. Based on these results the paper suggests that a series of active policy interventions are needed both to accelerate progress towards the MDGs and to build resilience for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, in the context of a spatial model we generalize two indices. One is a dynamic generalization of the emanating effect that was introduced by Kelejian and colleagues. This index describes how events in one unit spill over time to other units due to spatial interactions. As an analogy, it corresponds to the effect that the smoking habits of a given teenager might have on the smoking habits of each of his/her friends. In a sense, our second index, termed the vulnerability index, is the reverse of the first one in that it describes the response of a given unit over time to events in neighbouring units. The analogy here would be how the smoking habits of a given teenager is affected by the smoking habits of all of his/her friends. Second, we empirically implement our indices in the context of a model explaining GDP per capita growth in various countries. In this context the vulnerability index describes the sensitivity of GDP growth in one country with respect to events in other countries; the emanating effect describes how events in one country effect the GDP growth in other countries. Resumen Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar, y dentro del contexto de un modelo espacial, generalizamos dos índices. El primero es una generalización dinámica del efecto de emanación introducido por Kelejian y colaboradores. Este índice describe cómo lo que sucede en una unidad se extiende con el paso del tiempo a otras unidades por motivos de interacciones espaciales. A modo de analogía, se corresponde con el efecto que podría tener el hábito de fumar de un adolescente en el hábito de fumar de cada una de sus amistades. En cierto sentido, nuestro segundo índice, denominado índice de vulnerabilidad, es lo contrario del primero ya que describe la respuesta de una unidad a lo que sucede en unidades vecinas con el paso del tiempo. La analogía en este caso sería el efecto que podrían tener los hábitos de fumar del conjunto de amistades de un adolescente en particular en su consumo de tabaco. En segundo lugar, realizamos una implementación empírica de nuestros índices dentro del contexto de un modelo que explica el crecimiento per cápita del PIB en varios países. Dentro de este contexto, el índice de vulnerabilidad describe la sensibilidad del crecimiento del PIB de un país en relación con lo que sucede en otros países, mientras que el efecto de emanación describe como lo que sucede en un país afecta al crecimiento del PIB de otros países. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore how satellite images of global night lights from year 1992 to 2003 can be used to estimate economic activity at the sub-regional level in the US and China. The night lights based estimates of economic activity are then spatially analysed and compared with subregional economic indicators where available for selected years. We also briefly discuss two theoretical models that shed light on the geospatial patterns reflected by the night light data. The results are presented with a series of maps, charts and tables. Resumen. En este artículo exploramos el uso potencial de imágenes de satélite de la iluminación nocturna global desde 1992 a 2003 para estimar la actividad económica a escala subregional en los EE.UU. y en China. A continuación se analizan espacialmente las estimaciones de la actividad económica basadas en la iluminación nocturna y se comparan con los indicadores económicos subregionales disponibles para los años del estudio. Discutimos también brevemente dos modelos teoréticos que podrían ilustrar los patrones geoespaciales que reflejan los datos de iluminación nocturna. Los resultados se presentan junto con una serie de mapas, gráficos y cuadros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost 20 years ago, an article in Economic Papers by Altman and Daly asked 'Do fluctuations in the macroeconomy influence Aboriginal employment status?' This paper revisits this question in view of recent evidence. Indigenous people are more likely than before to be employed in industries similar to that of other Australians, and hence are less insulated from the business cycle. The greater engagement in the Australian economy is not something to be feared as it means that Indigenous employment will eventually respond to sustained macroeconomic growth. Indeed, Indigenous employment in the private sector converged rather quickly to the Australian average over the ten years of buoyant economic conditions between 1996 and 2006. Economic slow-downs do circumscribe the ability to improve Indigenous employment outcomes, but this simply means that educational and training investments become even more important in ensuring that Indigenous people are in a competitive position once economic growth picks up again. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper we aim to introduce a statistical dating and detection of turning points giving them a first economic interpretation. The main advantage of the proposed approach is represented by the fact that classical and growth cycles are jointly considered both in the dating and in the detecting stage. A key result of this choice is a better description of different economic phases as well as a more accurate investigation of the economic cyclical behaviour. The proposed approach considerably improves the relevance of information delivered to users in comparison with a standard analysis based only on classical or growth cycle components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to Harvey (1988) , the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect investors' expectations about the future economic situation when deciding their plans for consumption and investment. Past literature has used ex post data on output or consumption growth as proxies for their expected value. In this paper, we employ a direct measure of economic agents' expectations, the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission, to test this hypothesis. Our results indicate that a linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7\% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. This ability of yield spreads to capture economic agent expectations may be the actual reason for the predictive power of yield spreads about future business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currency board arrangements (CBAs) are currently widely proposed as a super-fixed exchange rate solution to exchange rate volatility. This paper researches the nature, operation, benefits and disadvantages of CBAs. Benefits comprise improved policy credibility, lower inflation and interest rate levels, increased economic growth, increased foreign capital flows, and sharply reduced currency speculation. These are compared with the shortcomings of CBAs, such as the absence of a lender of last resort, real exchange rate misalignments and their consequences for the economy. The paper identifies the type of country that would be the most likely candidate to benefit from a CBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws attention to an aspect of poverty reduction in rapidly developing economies that have enjoyed a sustained period of economic growth accompanied by a decline in absolute poverty. The paper sets out to show the following: First, growth that leaves income distribution unchanged necessarily involves the poor in its early stages. Second, as income grows and absolute poverty declines, and in the absence of distributional changes, the gap between absolute and relative poverty diminishes until it disappears at an identifiable transition point, after which the relationship between the two poverty types is reversed. Although this is examined in the specific context of the Malaysian economy, the analysis has much wider application and implications for poverty alleviation in particular, and policy development in general, as the latter will involve a more difficult balancing of growth and equity than in the past. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the implication of a simple class of fiscal rules for long-run economic growth and welfare. The Golden Rule of Public Finance that we examine is motivated by institutional arrangements in countries such as Germany and the UK. We find that rules that seek to limit government borrowing to productive investment spending have a clear justification in terms of growth and welfare when government-provided goods are otherwise excessively provided. Even in the case where it is private consumption that is excessive, the Golden Rule of Public Finance is likely to be good from a growth perspective, but the welfare effects are more ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time-series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi-directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export-led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper, considering the economic effects of liberalisation in the telecommunications sector on the Turkish economy, makes use of the empirical studies on the linkages between regulatory regimes and telecommunications prices. Since Turkey is trying to liberalise the telecommunications sector by following the EU approach to liberalisation, the paper considers briefly the regulatory regimes in the telecommunications sectors of the EU and Turkey, determines the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to the telecommunications services sector in Turkey, and derives estimates of the welfare effects of adopting the EU rules and regulations in the Turkish telecommunications sector. It shows that there is tremendous scope for Turkey to benefit from adopting and implementing the legislative, regulatory and institutional framework of the EU telecommunications sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas initially physical capital and later, knowledge capital were viewed as crucial for growth, more recently a very different factor, entrepreneurship capital, has emerged as a driving force of economic growth. In this paper, we define a region's capacity to create new firms start-ups as the region's entrepreneurship capital. We then investigate the local embeddedness of this variable and which variables have an impact on this variable. Using data for Germany, we find that knowledge-based entrepreneurship capital is driven by local levels of knowledge creation and the acceptance of new ideas, indicating that local knowledge flows play an important role. Low-tech entrepreneurship capital is rather increased by regional unemployment and driven by direct incentives such as subsidies. All three measures are locally clustered, indicating that indeed, entrepreneurship capital is a phenomenon that is driven by local culture, and is therefore locally bounded. Mientras que inicialmente el capital físico, y posteriormente el capital conocimiento, fue considerado crucial para el crecimiento, más recientemente un factor muy diferente, el capital empresarial de espíritu emprendedor ( entrepreneurship capital), ha surgido como una fuerza impulsora de crecimiento económico. En este artículo, definimos como capital empresarial emprendedor la capacidad de una región para originar la puesta en marcha de nuevas empresas. A continuación investigamos el arraigo local de esta variable y las variables que tienen un impacto sobre esta variable. Usando datos de Alemania, hallamos que el capital empresarial emprendedor basado en el conocimiento está motivado por niveles locales de creación de conocimiento y la aceptación de nuevas ideas, indicando que los flujos de conocimiento local juegan un papel importante. El capital empresarial emprendedor basado en bajas tecnologías aumenta con el desempleo regional y está motivado por incentivos directos como subsidios. Las tres variables están agrupadas localmente ( locally clustered), indicando que sin duda el capital empresarial emprendedor es un fenómeno motivado por la cultura local, y por tanto atribuible a una localidad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main task of central banks is to set the level of short-term nominal interest rates in reaction to economic developments, with the aim of achieving their statutory objectives (typically some combination of inflation and output variability). If agents are forward-looking, central banks can achieve better macroeconomic outcomes by committing to follow a rule-like behaviour. Against this background, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it estimates a small-scale model of the euro area economy that can be used as a benchmark for the evaluation of different simple policy rules in the euro area economy. Second, it studies the performance of a relatively new type of rule, labelled ‘speed limit’ (SL), where the nominal interest rate reacts to the rate of growth in the output gap. The main conclusion of the study is that an SL policy performs remarkably well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scope of the paper is limited by focusing on developing countries in the context of the world economy. We mostly consider the effects of globalization on income levels and a country's rate of economic growth. This focus is supported by studies (Ravallion; Bourguignon) that find that the level of income and expenditures across a continuum of household income categories is positively associated with economic growth, although wealthy households may benefit more than those with lower income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the correlation between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of different sources of energy for OPEC Member Countries, the G-7 and three Asian countries, both with and without natural logarithm. In addition, the paper estimates the ratios for total GDP and total energy consumption of different sources of energy and also estimates GDP energy consumption elasticities. The paper concludes that on a per capita basis most OPEC Countries exhibit negative and weak relationships for all forms of energy, including electricity. For the G-7 and Asian countries, this relationship is positive and strong, with the exception of oil for G-7 countries, where there is a weak correlation. Surprisingly, most OPEC Countries showed a comparatively strong and positive correlation when tested for total GDP in relation to total energy consumption of the respective energy sources. The relationship for the rest of the countries remains unchanged. Population might have distorted the results in OPEC Countries. These results suggest that one should be cautious when drawing conclusions and not ignore the aggregate comparison, as this could otherwise lead to wrong results. For G-7 countries, there has been a significant shift in the pattern of energy consumption in relation to GDP when comparing 1960–73 and 1973–2001. All adjusted downward in the later period. However, the greatest adjustment was associated with petroleum consumption. The general conclusion is that wealth creation in G-7 countries is directly associated with the efficient use of all forms of energy. In contrast, most OPEC Countries exhibit a weaker linkage between energy consumption and economic development on a per capita basis, probably due to inefficient usage of resources or due to disproportionate distribution of wealth and thus energy usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explore the relationship between economic growth and governance performance in Asian developing economies. This exploration yields some interesting conclusions. First, notwithstanding its tremendous economic achievements, the state of governance in Asia is not stellar by international comparison. Indeed, the majority of these countries seem to suffer from a governance deficit. Second, contrary to our expectations, data do not suggest any strong positive link between governance and growth: paradoxically, countries that exhibit surpluses in governance on average grew much slower than those with deficits. The paper ends with some conjecture about this apparent paradox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gross Product of the Northern Territory accounts for approximately 1.2% of Australian GDP. The economic growth record of NT in the past few years has been well below all Australian states and territories but the per capita income of NT remains higher than the national per capita income. Due to continued interstate migration, higher birth rate among the indigenous population and the inability of NT to attract international migrants, the Territory's population mix is slowly changing. This paper shows that the NT's economic growth rate is closely linked to the growth rate of labour force and private investment. Although the overall labour force participation-rate is almost unchanged, the male and female participation rates are moving in the opposite direction. Finally, the paper presents short-term forecasts for NT's Gross State Product per person employed, private investment and employment. The forecasting exercise shows that the cyclical pattern is likely to continue in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. It provides a theoretical basis for establishing the channel through which stock markets affect economic growth in the long run. It examines the hypothesis of endogenous growth models that financial development causes higher growth through its influence on the level of investment and its productivity. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed to test for causality in VARs. The evidence obtained from a sample of four countries suggests that investment productivity is the channel through which stock market development enhances the growth rate in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the impact of skill transfer on economic growth. Even if there are the benefits of backwardness and the ability to absorb them, the South may not exploit them, because the skilled workers in the North are not willing to come to the South owing to their high opportunity cost. It is shown that if the South's relative income is low, the South cannot offer high wages to attract skilled workers from the North, and stays in the low rank. But if its relative income is high enough, exploiting the benefits of backwardness, it attains high growth and converges to a relatively higher position. This prediction is consistent with the evidence that the world distribution of relative income has two peaks. The study also shows that an increase in human capital in the North increases the minimum requirement for human capital in the South to soar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a model of social and economic development which relaxes some of the assumptions made in existing papers on the determinants of growth. In particular, the model allows for multidirectional causality between social and economic indicators. The model indicates that there are strong causal relationships in both directions between economic development and social and political development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a considerable rise in discourses concerning trust from a range of academic disciplines and perspectives. Unfortunately, many of these literatures have talked past, rather than to, each other. This paper develops an analysis of trust in economic activity through a dialogue between the disciplines of economics and sociology. It outlines the relationship of trust to economic co-operation and identifies a number of types of trust. The potential benefits of these different types of trust to advanced capitalist economies are identified. Consideration is given to the processes of trust creation and destruction in market economies. Particular emphasis here is on how far trust can be symbiotic with, or contradictory to, power and the market. With an analysis of the key properties of individual agents which make them more or less prone to trusting behaviour, the paper is then able to identify the critical factors likely to underlie high-trust and low-trust economies. This has important public policy implications given the potential benefits which trust can have for advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the application of recent results on estimation and inference in panel cointegration to the study of empirical economic growth. The emergence of endogenous growth theory in the 1980s has led to a resurgence of interest in the sources of economic growth. The paper re-examined economists D. Coe and E. Helpman's international research and development (R&D) spillover regressions by applying different estimation methods of cointegrating regressions in panel data proposed by economists C. Kao and M.-H. Chiang. The empirical results indicate that the estimated coefficients in Coe and Helpman's regressions are subject to estimation bias. However, in all cases the estimates are correctly signed. All estimations confirm the existence of the linkage between TFP and domestic capital stock. In addition, there exists strong evidence supporting Coe and Helpman's argument that the impact of domestic R&D capital stocks on TFP differs between the G7 countries and the other small countries.

The paper returns to the question of what is the correct structural form for the relationship between aid, other financial flows, and economic growth rates, using a cross-section approach and -- for the first time -- data for the entire 1980s as well as the 1960s and 1970s. For the 1980s the aggregate partial regression coefficient of aid on growth emerges, for the first time, as positive and Gust) significant, although this result does not survive the partitioning of the sample into sub-groups. It remains obvious that the effect of aid on growth is country-specific, and in the later part of the paper we test a new approach under which aid effectiveness passes through a cycle, first increasing and then diminishing as a country's stage of economic development alters. If this approach is accepted (and the initial results, with an informal test, are promising) the overall cross-section relationship between aid and growth, abstracting from other influences, will be neutral in most periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. Subsequently, cross-country correlations establish the relevance of fluctuations in imports to the pass-through channel of exchange rate fluctuations to economic activity. Further, the evidence evaluates the direct effects of fluctuations in the nominal values of imports on price inflation and real growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate the effects of variation in the average and variability of exchange rate fluctuations on import growth. Subsequently, variation in indicators of macroeconomic performance (real growth, price inflation and the growth of private consumption and investment) is evaluated with respect to variation in the exchange rate and/or import growth. In developing countries, the evidence indicates the relevance of fluctuations in import growth to the transmission mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy. Where this relationship dominates, fluctuations in the exchange rate are no longer significant to the difference in macroeconomic indicators, having controlled for variation in import growth across countries. In advanced countries, import fluctuations may be transmitted to economic activity, further to fluctuations in the exchange rate, in line with variations in terms of trade. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]