1. Volcanic Precursor Revealed by Machine Learning Offers New Eruption Forecasting Capability.
- Author
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Wang, Kaiwen, Waldhauser, Felix, Tolstoy, Maya, Schaff, David, Sawi, Theresa, Wilcock, William S. D., and Tan, Yen Joe
- Subjects
MACHINE learning ,VOLCANIC eruptions ,EARTHQUAKES ,VOLCANOES ,MAGMAS - Abstract
Seismicity at active volcanoes provides crucial constraints on the dynamics of magma systems and complex fault activation processes preceding and during an eruption. We characterize time‐dependent spectral features of volcanic earthquakes at Axial Seamount with unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods, revealing mixed frequency signals that rapidly increase in number about 15 hr before eruption onset. The events migrate along pre‐existing fissures, suggesting that they represent brittle crack opening driven by influx of magma or volatiles. These results demonstrate the power of unsupervised ML algorithms to characterize subtle changes in magmatic processes associated with eruption preparation, offering new possibilities for forecasting Axial's anticipated next eruption. This analysis is generalizable and can be employed to identify similar precursory signals at other active volcanoes. Plain Language Summary: Our research used observations of small earthquakes to understand the dynamic behaviors of magma and fault systems before and during a volcano eruption. Specifically, we used ML techniques to search for patterns in the waveforms that may inform us of their associated physical processes. At Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano, we discovered distinct patterns in earthquake signals preceding and during the 2015 eruption. Based on event spectral patterns, we identified signals of mixed‐frequency earthquakes that rapidly increase in number about 15 hr before the eruption starts and migrate along pre‐existing eruptive fissures. The spectral pattern involves a mixture of low frequency energy following the first arrivals, which we interpret to represent opening of cracks and being filled with magma or gases. Our study demonstrates that we can use ML algorithms to detect subtle changes in volcanic signals and help us better understand the processes leading up to an eruption. This may help us in forecasting Axial's upcoming eruption and can be applied to other active volcanoes too. Key Points: Unsupervised learning separated regular earthquakes and precursory mixed frequency earthquakes (MFEs) based on different spectral patternsThe regular earthquakes have strong tidal modulation, corresponding to failures on the caldera ring faults triggered by tidal stress changesThe MFEs intensify 15 hr before eruption and migrate along pre‐existing fissures, likely associated with eruption preparation processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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