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This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous patterns of clean energy consumption at business cycle frequencies from 1970 to 2017. Specifically, the paper provides a systematic analysis of this relationship in a comprehensive cross‐country panel by extracting the cyclical components of the clean energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) series based on the Hodrick–Prescott filter. Focusing on the cyclical components, we conclude the stylised facts as follows: (a) clean energy consumption is procyclical in advanced economies and developing economies, but acyclical in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); (b) clean energy consumption is cyclically more volatile than GDP in a typical country; (c) the correlation between cyclicality of clean energy consumption and GDP per capita is more intricate in different country groups; and (d) clean energy consumption is positively correlated with the oil price in advanced economies and developing economies, and negatively correlated in OPEC. These stylised facts are potentially important for establishing empirical and theoretical models to exploit the consequences and impacts of clean energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy, being one of the significant drivers of growth, has gained much focus in the last four decades. A connection between energy and growth exists in the economy: on the one hand, energy is a vital factor of production while growth improves living standards, which increases energy consumption on the other hand. Previous studies on the energy‐growth nexus paid less attention to sectorial differentials in the consumption of energy and growth. Also, the literature could not relate that to sustainable development. Thus, this study explores the sectorial differentials in energy consumption and how they affect the energy‐growth nexus within the context of sustainable development. The research employed secondary data for 46 sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries for the period 2007 to 2020. Using the General Methods of Moments estimation technique, we found that all the measures of energy consumption positively affect economic growth. Also, CO2 intensity is positively related to growth in the economy while CO2 emissions from solid fuels negatively affect economic growth. Again, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is positively impacting economic growth and Gross Domestic Product (SSA) per energy use. Policy implications are discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the concluding part of a project described in an earlier paper in this journal. The conceptual partition of government services into intermediate, individual and collective consumption is connected to the framework of the SNA and ESA. The paper shows how elements from both systems can be welded together in order to describe government productive activity more clearly within the general make-use matrix approach. After an attempt to clarify some of the existing terminology, figures are presented which show that the partition is feasible, in principle. The data also support the necessity of distinguishing between individual and collective consumption of government services leading to the concept of total individual consumption. Finally, the paper concludes that intermediate use, if properly defined, should be introduced as a subcategory of government consumption, but not subtracted at present from GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows how international capital flows originate boom-bust and sunspot episodes in a neoclassical growth model of a small, open economy. A limit is imposed on how much the economy can borrow from foreign creditors and it is made endogenous by assuming that the debt-to-GDP ratio is procyclical. The steady state is locally indeterminate when the credit multiplier is larger than some threshold level, whereas saddle-point stability prevails when the credit multiplier is low enough. As a consequence, high levels of the credit multiplier lead to both booms followed by busts and sunspot-driven volatility near the steady state, while, in contrast, low levels ensure monotonic convergence. Compared with saddle-path equilibria, boom-bust and sunspot equilibria are associated with both lower welfare and debt overhang, that is, a crowding-out effect of credit: when the economy is highly leveraged, it uses savings to cut down foreign debt, at the expense of both human and physical investment. Numerical examples show that indeterminacy arises for debt-to-GDP ratios that fall within the range of available estimates. Finally, the effects of shocks to the world interest rate on output and consumption are amplified and persistent in the debt overhang regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Human Development Index (HDI) uses GDP per capita to measure“command over resources,” whichimplicitlymakes the strong value judgment that inequality and insecurity do not matter. This paper presents revised estimates of the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB) for the United States, the U.K., Canada, Australia, Germany, Norway and Sweden for the period 1980 to 2001 and demonstrates that replacing an index of the log per capita incomes with our IEWB as the“command over resources” component in the Human Development Index (HDI) affects the level and trend of the HDI, even among affluent nations. Because the IEWB recognizes four dimensions of command over resources (Current effective per capita Consumption flows, Net societal Accumulation of stocks of productive resources, Income Distribution and Economic Security), its use has a particularly large impact where underlying trends in these components diverge (e.g. the U.K. or the United States). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have 'Armey curve' or 'inverted‐U shape' characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using changes in the possession of household assets over the past 20 years, several recent papers have argued that economic growth and poverty reduction in Africa was substantially better than suggested by national income data and income poverty statistics, which suffer from well-known weaknesses. We scrutinize these claims and first argue that trends in assets provide biased proxies for trends in incomes or consumption. In particular we show that the relationship between growth in assets and growth in incomes or consumption is extremely weak; instead, we find evidence of asset drift using macro and micro data, which is consistent with the claims we make about possible biases in the use of asset indices. As a result, we find no evidence supporting the claim of an African growth miracle that extends beyond what has been reported in official GDP/capita and consumption figures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the agenda of 'beyond GDP' encompasses measurements that lie outside boundaries of the System of National Accounts, key aspects of individual well-being and social welfare can be incorporated into an SNA framework. We bring together the relevant theoretical literature and the empirical tools needed for this purpose. We show how consumption-based measures of economic welfare can be integrated into the national accounts without changing their production or asset boundary. At the same time, explicit normative and methodological choices are required to select a social welfare function. The paper provides guidance how to make these choices transparent and how to present social welfare measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-term effects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Família. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare. ( JEL O11, I25, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the implications of managing fisheries to achieve a BMEY target, or a biomass level that maximizes net economic returns in the fishery, and discusses the role of private ownership and the trade-offs between economic and conservation benefits in this setting. The paper shows how a BMEY target can be used to: (i) determine relative employment and profitability measures; (ii) account for both the harvesting and processing sectors; and (iii) incorporate the interests of consumers and producers of fish. The profits-employment trade-off of adopting a BMEY target vs. a traditional BMSY target is calculated using a model and data from the Western and Central Pacific tuna fisheries (WCPTF), while a generic bioeconomic model is constructed to show numerical values of BMEY from including processing and/or retail sectors and the consumer benefits of harvesting fish. For the WCPTF, results show that the long-term gains per job lost from pursuing a BMEY target are worth several times the value of the average GDP per capita of Pacific Island Countries. The generic bioeconomic model shows that including a processing and/or retail sector, as well as measures of consumer benefit, lowers the BMEY target. However, there remains a broad range of parameter values for which BMEY is still greater than biomass at maximum sustainable yield, or BMSY. The paper also illustrates cases where BMEY > BMSY at different values of the price elasticity of demand, margins for processing and/or retail sectors and values of the discount rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary We contribute to the empirical literature on the effect of government spending on economic activity, by assessing the impact of changes in government spending- GDP ratio on (the short-term growth rates of) private consumption and investment. We do this by analysing a panel sample of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007. The results of our paper suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. The result is broadly robust to both country and time effects, and different econometric specifications. In addition, we show that the effect of government consumption on private consumption and investment does not depend on the phase of the business cycle, but differs substantially among regions. The differentiated effects of government consumption on private consumption and investment among geographical areas are extremely important and need to be further investigated. In particular, it would be interesting to assess to which extent the effect of government spending on consumption and investment depends on political and institutional variables (e.g. democracy, corruption, political stability) as well as macroeconomic variables (income, interest rates, degree of openness). We leave this challenging avenue for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign-aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks, like a change in the terms of trade, can significantly improve the welfare of an aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms-of-trade shocks can reduce the cost of business-cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by 4% of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by 3% without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether the disaggregation of consumer sentiment data into its sub-components improves the real-time capacity to forecast GDP and consumption. A Bayesian error correction approach augmented with the consumer sentiment index and permutations of the consumer sentiment sub-indices is used to evaluate forecasting power. The forecasts are benchmarked against both composite forecasts and forecasts from standard error correction models. Using Australian data, we find that consumer sentiment data increase the accuracy of GDP and consumption forecasts, with certain components of consumer sentiment consistently providing better forecasts than aggregate consumer sentiment data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several strategies are open to an economy in its attempt to attain sustainable economic development, depending on its historical background and resource endowment. One such strategy is the resource-led strategy. Nigeria is very rich in crude oil and has reaped billions of petrodollars. However, the country faces the problem of successfully translating this huge oil wealth into sustainable development. This paper employs the vector error correction technique in examining the long-run impact of the huge oil wealth accruing to Nigeria on its economic development. Basic indicators such as growth, private consumption, infrastructure (electricity), agriculture and manufacturing output growth rates are examined. The empirical results suggest a significant positive long-run impact of per capita oil revenue on per capita household consumption and electricity generation while a negative relationship is established for GDP, agriculture and manufacturing. Even for those with a negative relationship at current period, there exist positive relationships at subsequent lags. Thus, oil revenue, if properly managed and invested, could be effectively used to induce oil-led development for Nigeria provided that the initial inhibitions of corruption, lack of transparency, accountability and fairness in its use and distribution are removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the bias and dispersion in official revisions of eight national accounting growth rates. The growth in GDP, consumption expenditure and personal disposable income by households has been subject to significant upward revisions and bias, especially after 1994. No significant bias was found in the revisions to the other national accounting aggregates. The official revisions are subject to a high degree of dispersion. Based on the 1984-2003 period, there is a 30 per cent probability that the “final” growth rate in GDE deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the first release growth rate. For most magnitudes, other than exports and imports, the dispersion in South Africa's official revisions is similar to that of a sample of OECD countries. Using two examples, it is shown that the vintage of the data has a profound impact on the magnitude and significance of regression results based on such data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarises the results of a new comparison of the level of Australian and U.K. real product in the 1890s, obtained by the direct deflation of money values of GDP by relative prices. The object of the study was to provide a check on the existing comparisons, obtained by extrapolation of time series of real GDP, as shown, for example, in Maddison (1982). Existing estimates imply that in the 1890s Australian GDP per capita was about 50 percent higher in the U.K. and U.S.A. and more than twice that for the average of 12 other western countries. The present study suggests these results probably overstate Australia's real GDP, and that Australian real GDP per capita was 36 percent higher than the U.K.'s in 1891 and 3 percent higher in 1900. Personal consumption per capita was 15 percent higher in Australia than in the U.K. in 1891, but about the same level in 1900. Although this study compares prices and GDP in the colony of New South Wales with those in the U.K., the colony may be token as representative of Australia as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For large economies with substantial regional variation, it is of great importance for policymakers and economic analysis that macro-economic statistics are broken down by region. This paper reviews the regional accounts in India, discusses their role in Indian federal and state policies, and provides new estimates to cover major data gaps. Statistics on domestic product by Indian state, broken down by industry, are regularly published. But despite demands and recommendations by various commissions and policymakers, a comprehensive system of regional accounts is yet to be developed. New estimates for the period 1993-2010 are presented for saving and the macro-economic expenditure by Indian states, like final consumption, capital formation, and trade balance. They show, for example, that some of the fastest growing Indian states have increased their saving and investment rates to 50 percent of their domestic product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The material Kuznets curve ( MKC) hypothesis with reference to copper for 16 high-income countries over the period 1966 to 2010 is investigated. The Narayan and Narayan (2010) testing framework is applied. Recent generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are performed. The variables are found to be I(1) and cointegrated. Unidirectional causality running from real gross domestic product per capita to copper intensity is uncovered in the long-run. While controlling for technological development, the MKC hypothesis is found to hold at individual levels for Austria, Italy and Portugal as well as for the whole panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causal effect that trade openness has on government size in small developing countries (SDCs). We use the construction of the trade cost variables based on Baltic Dry Index in primary goods as instruments of trade openness to address the endogeneity issue. We find that the increase in trade openness leads to an increase in government size: a 1 percent expansion in trade openness (trade GDP ratio) raises government consumption over GDP ratio by approximately 0.1-0.2 percentage points on average. Its quantitative significance emphasizes the importance of rethinking the costs and benefits of trade openness for SDCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies quantitatively how intermediation costs affect household consumption loans and welfare. Agents face uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to labor productivity in a production economy with costly financial intermediation and a borrowing limit. Reducing intermediation costs has two effects: (1) For a given decrease in the interest rate on borrowing, agents' ability to smooth consumption over time improves. (2) The demand for loans increases, which increases the interest rate. The net welfare gain of reducing intermediation costs from 3.927% (U.S. level) to 1% is about 1.14% of equivalent consumption in the baseline economy for an endogenous interest rate and 1.90% for an exogenous interest rate. The gains are distributed unevenly: households at the bottom wealth decile improve welfare by 3.96% and 5.86% of equivalent consumption, while those at the top decile have welfare gains of 0.35% and 0.2%, respectively. Sufficiently high intermediation costs eliminate borrowing and hence the welfare gain of reducing costs is not substantial. The welfare analysis includes transitional dynamics between steady states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses OECD data to examine changes in labor productivity, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross domestic income (GDI), economic aggregates, and relative economic growth over time. Real GDI combines changes in production (real GDP) with a trading gain derived from relative price changes. The paper considers two sources of trading gains: the terms of trade, and the real exchange rate. For OECD countries, the terms of trade is the more important price ratio, making a contribution to real income growth that is, on average, an order of magnitude larger than the real exchange rate. Over long time periods, the most important source of real income growth is changes in production. Over shorter time horizons, however, the trading gain can make noteworthy contributions. Changes in aggregates like real private consumption, or the relative economic performance of nations, are shown to be particularly dependent on the trading gain during the large swings in resource prices that occurred post-2002. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study shows that China could contribute to an orderly global rebalancing using a package of policies to stimulate its domestic consumption. These policies include a progressive appreciation of the RMB, fiscal stimulation by increasing expenditure on education, health care, social safety nets and poverty reduction, income policies to reduce inequality and to strengthen wage income, and reforms of the financial system to improve financial efficiency and to mitigate financial constraints. By implementing such policies, China's external surplus could be narrowed and its domestic imbalances improved. The excessively high savings rate could be lowered and the share of household consumption increased, even though GDP growth would moderate slightly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motorisation in Asia is soaring with rapid growth in incomes non-lin-early. Even though car ownership per 1,000 population is still low in countries like China, India or Indonesia, escalating number of cars is affected by GDP growth among other infrastructural factors in a non-linear manner. This quick growth in car ownership may represent a significant implication on road transport fuel demand. This paper forecasts the demand for road transport fuel in India. For this purpose, econometric models, based on time series data, are constructed as for a major factor affecting fuel demand in road transportation i.e. car ownership. Firstly the econometric car ownership model was attempted in this study, for projecting future car stock in India based on cross section time series technique. The car stock is modelled by using three functional forms, which are the logistic, quasi-logistic and Gompertz curves. However, to take into consideration countries with different income levels in that part of the world, these models were estimated by using pooled data of seven Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India). Then, a set of fuel consumption scenarios were developed in order to make forecast until 2030. These scenarios were generated by taking into consideration car stock, fuel efficiency and the average distance travelled in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1-2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short-term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy resulting from the BVAR model is compared with the same generated from the univariate and unrestricted VAR models. The BVAR model is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. The same is also capable of correctly predicting the direction of change in the chosen macroeconomic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates theoretically the time pattern of remittances sent home by a growing diaspora of emigrants who are motivated by altruism rather than pure self-interest. Migrants are assumed to care about the consumption of home-resident family members as well as their own welfare. Hence, remittance effort will depend upon the ratios of per capita income and income growth rates between the host country and the home country. Effort will depend also on the number of emigrants sending back remittances to each home-resident household. In general, the effect of remittances is to sustain growth of consumption per capita in the home country above the growth rate of per capita GDP. A priori, there is no necessary tendency for remittance effort to rise or fall over time. Falling remittance amounts per migrant may occur as the diaspora grows relative to the home population, but should not be treated as evidence of so-called ‘remittance fatigue’. A number of feasible scenarios are traced out, and some opportunities are identified to use statistical tests to adjudicate between self-interest and altruism as motives for sending remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the role of uncertainty in business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty rises sharply during recessions, including during the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Second, we show that uncertainty shocks can generate drops in gross domestic product of around 2.5% in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. However, we also find that uncertainty shocks need to be supplemented by first‐moment shocks to fit consumption over the cycle. So our data and simulations suggest recessions are best modelled as being driven by shocks with a negative first moment and a positive second moment. Finally, we show that increased uncertainty can make first‐moment policies, like wage subsidies, temporarily less effective because firms become more cautious in responding to price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares preliminary estimates (available about four months after the close of the period to which they refer) with final estimates (available three years after the close of the period) for certain national accounting aggregates and some of their major components. It concludes that preliminary estimates are consistently low for gross domestic product, exports, and public consumption, whereas imports, private consumption, and gross capital formation may be either low or high. The best early estimates, in the sense of closest to the final figures, are those for gross domestic product, imports, and exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a new financial conditions index for Australia and use it to apply the growth‐at‐risk framework to the Australian economy. The index correlates closely with previous episodes of financial instability and allows us to estimate how important current financial conditions are in explaining future downside risk to key macroeconomic variables. As such, it provides a way to quantify the economic costs of financial instability. We find that more restrictive financial conditions play an important role in explaining downside risk to growth in both gross domestic product and employment and upside risk to changes in the unemployment rate. Our measure of financial conditions is, however, less useful for explaining risks to growth in household consumption and business investment. Overall, the framework provides a useful characterisation of the relationship between financial stability and economic activity in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We introduce a new dataset of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecasts produced by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In contrast to the eight Greenbook forecasts a year the staff produce for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, our dataset has roughly weekly forecasts. We use these data to study whether the staff forecasts efficiently. Prespecified regressions of forecast errors on forecast revisions show the staff's GDP forecasts exhibit time‐varying inefficiency between FOMC meetings, and also show some evidence for inefficient inflation forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the nature of the relationship between formal agricultural credit and agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India, specifically the role of the former in supporting agricultural growth, using state level panel data covering the period 1995-1996 to 2011-2012. The study uses a mediation analysis framework to map the pathways through which institutional credit relates to agricultural GDP relying on a control function approach to tackle the problem of endogeneity. The findings from the analysis suggest that over this period, all the inputs are highly responsive to an increase in institutional credit to agriculture. A 10% increase in credit flow in nominal terms leads to an increase by 1.7% in fertilizers (N, P, K) consumption in physical quantities, 5.1% increase in the tonnes of pesticides, 10.8% increase in tractor purchases. Overall, it seems quite clear that input use is sensitive to credit flow, whereas GDP of agriculture is not. Credit seems therefore to be an enabling input, but one whose effectiveness is undermined by low technical efficiency and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income inequality measures the highlighted gaps between the household disposable income between individuals, groups, etc. Rising concern for financial access to all has greatly influenced this macroeconomic indicator. Africa has majority of countries with worse equality conditions. Though African countries are recipients of external aids from different entities, a high level of corruption directs the benefits to private wealth. The gain of economic growth is disproportionately shared and is skewed. The purpose of the study is to determine the factors responsible for income inequality. We have used unbalanced panel data of 24 African countries for the period 1990–2015 (5‐year averages) of several macroeconomic indicators such as GINI index, literacy, control of corruption, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, household consumption, inflation, etc. We estimated four regression models (OLS fixed effects and random effects) with an increasing number of independent variables. Further, we chose the best model according to Hausman test and conducted a restricted F‐test to check for non‐spurious variables. We concluded one of the models as statistically significant and robust to explain Income Inequality in Africa. Also, we tested for multicollinearity in variables via the correlation matrix and variance inflation index (VIF) and eliminated the population variable, which was significant. We concluded that six factors are non‐spurious and explain the income inequality variable in a statistically significant manner. Implications of this report can be used for making policies and schemes with respect to the underline variables so that the nations will be able to reduce the inequality gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the discussion on consumption of goods and services containing tourism where tourism falling into the category of normal goods and services. Topics include demonstrating the implications concretely by examining international demand for NZ tourism; and deriving tourism demand cycles and business cycles from the international visitor arrivals and the real GDP time series.

The literature suggests that trust can influence the behavior of economic agents and improve access to financing for both households and corporations. Subsequently, this might have implications for the consumption of households and the investments of corporations. Therefore, trust could mitigate the negative impact of financial stress on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we use a sample of EU countries over the period 2002–2020 and examine the interaction of trust with financial stress in shaping GDP growth. The interaction term enters the estimations with a positive and statistically significant coefficient, and it therefore mitigates the negative impact of financial stress on economic growth. Furthermore, by disaggregating the GDP into its four main components, we find that the moderating effect of trust flows through the two main components of GDP mentioned above, namely households' consumption and firms' investments. Additionally, we observe that the interaction effect becomes weaker in countries with a higher economic freedom and is strengthened in centre and left‐wing governments compared to right‐wing economically oriented ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's current account surplus widened from the late 1990s, and its private consumption fell to one third of gross domestic product ( GDP). We examine these domestic and external imbalances from two perspectives: the saving-investment balance and the effective renminbi exchange rate. China's large external surplus has arisen neither from anaemic consumption nor from weak investment but rather from the saved windfalls from favorable demographics, market liberalization, robust restructuring and World Trade Organization ( WTO) accession. Looking ahead, as these windfalls fade, saving will subside. The exchange rate is already playing a supporting role in rebalancing the Chinese economy, and the real effective exchange rate based on unit labor costs has appreciated very sharply. Prospective savings-investment and exchange-rate developments point to a higher consumption share and a narrowing of China's current account surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effects of minimum wages on both the long-run per worker GDP and welfare in the textbook Diamond style overlapping generations economy. In addition, we assume the existence of unemployment benefits financed at a balanced budget with consumption taxes. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that a regulated-wage economy with unemployment performs better than a competitive-wage economy with full employment in the long run. Moreover, a welfare-maximizing minimum wage exists. Our findings may have interesting policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labour income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the US trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) induces the trade balance to deteriorate by 0.2 percentage point of GDP or less. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity, or of the share of liquidity-constrained households in the economy. From a policy perspective, our analysis suggests that even reducing the current US fiscal deficit (of 3% of GDP) to zero would be unlikely to narrow the burgeoning US trade deficit significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes consumption pattern of the South African population and presents information on the overall economic condition of the country as of June 2003. Percentage increase in aggregate real gross domestic product of South Africa since 1993; Factors determining consumption pattern of people of South Africa; Explanation of ways in which consumer goods interact with consumer's utility functions.

Several recent studies of short-cut estimates comparing real income (on a purchasing power basis) of countries are reviewed, including methods comparing real income based on indicators, like electricity consumption. New estimates are presented for 101 countries which had a tradition of conventional national income estimates in 1965, and for 40 countries without extended national income series. One conclusion from the empirical analysis was that until there exist a large number of countries for which purchasing power estimates of real income are available, it is difficult to discriminate between alternative short-cut methods using indicators, and difficult to estimate real per capita incomes of low income countries without substantial errors of estimate. The paper advocates more purchasing power estimates, and institutionalizing the collection of international prices of specified items so that abbreviated market baskets can be readily compared across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we discuss a few of the problems that have been encountered in defining output and in comparing prices for the International Comparison Project (ICP). We report also on the way in which these problems are being met. The ICP has for its purpose the establishment of a systematic set of procedures for making international comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) and of the purchasing power of currencies. Substantive work on comparisons involving Colombia, the European Economic Community (EEC), Hungary, India, Japan, Kenya, the United Kingdom and the United States is also being carried on with the aid of the statistical services of the countries and or the EEC. It is hoped to expand the comparisons beyond these countries as rapidly as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

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Does development affect food practices? The nutrition transition model correlates positively meat consumption levels with gross domestic product per capita, except in India. In this article, I analyze food diets in this country since the 1980s by mapping out households' practices in animal product consumption depending on their social positions. Applying multiple factor analysis on the Consumer Expenditures data of the National Sample Survey Office, I produce a relational model of food diet segmentation to overcome the dead ends of the nutrition transition model. Two structural dimensions are highlighted. The first one differentiates beef and nonbeef meat diets and relates to the symbolic capital of caste and religion. The second one opposes diets including animal products and without, depending on the amount of economic capital. The concept of temporal homology is introduced to show that the social structure remains stable over time. This denotes the importance of sociocultural norms in food practices rather than their weakening due to "modernization" and shows how these norms are key to understand food transitions beyond linear expectations drawn from economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two‐child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses trends, updates, and outlook for the Australian economy. Topics explored include the gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and unemployment rates recorded from 2017 to 2018, international economic developments in the U.S., Europe, and China which could impact Australia, and the contribution of non-mining business investments to Australian economic growth.

Visible expenditures which convey higher socioeconomic status may help individuals differentiate themselves in the marriage market when there is competition for partners and imperfect information. We examine a unique dataset of automobile purchasers in China to investigate the extent to which skewed sex ratios influence expenditure decisions for this highly visible commodity. Using a triple difference approach, we show that unmarried male consumers who face an unfavorable sex ratio purchase more expensive, luxury vehicles than their married peers. Lower income borrowers and those residing in regions with the worst sex ratios exhibit the largest relative degree of conspicuous consumption. In addition to the direct cost of consumption signaling, we demonstrate that this behavior generates negative externalities in the form of lower average fuel economy and higher average vehicle weight. As it has worsened sex ratios, status competition and the associated negative repercussions we identify represent unintended consequences of China's one child policy. ( JEL O12, E21, J12) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the age distribution's impact on carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2006 by exploiting demographic variation in a panel of 46 countries. To eliminate potential bias from endogeneity or omitted variables, we instrument for the age distribution in a country's current population with lagged birth rates, and the regressions control for total population, total output, and country and year fixed effects. Carbon dioxide emissions increase with the share of the population aged 35 to 49 years, and this result is statistically significant and quantitatively large. ( JEL Q4, J1) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the well-known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low-income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low-income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low-income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low-income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low-income country and sample industrialized country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The welfare gain to consumers from the introduction of personal computers (PCs) is estimated. A simple model of consumer demand is formulated that uses a slightly modified version of standard preferences. The modification permits marginal utility, and hence total utility, to be finite when the consumption of computers is zero. This implies that the good will not be consumed at a high enough price. It also bounds the consumer surplus derived from the product. The model is calibrated/estimated using standard national income and product account data. The welfare gain from the introduction of PCs is 2%-3% of consumption expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Chinese provincial panel data for the period 1978-2006, this article studies the relationship between government infrastructural investment and household consumption. In our baseline reduced-form regression, we find that a 1% point increase of infrastructural investment in the government budget leads to a 0.31% point reduction of the share of household consumption in GDP. This result holds qualitatively in a variety of specifications and using different estimation methods. In contrast, private investment is not found to have any significant impact on the share of household consumption. Our structural estimations establish two channels for government investment's negative effects, one by encouraging the development of the secondary sector that is more capital-intensive than agriculture and services, and the other by increasing the profit rate in the industrial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]