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Drought threatens plant growth and related ecosystem services. The emergence of plant drought stress under edaphic drought is well studied, whilst the importance of atmospheric drought only recently gained momentum. Yet, little is known about the interaction and relative contribution of edaphic and atmospheric drought on the emergence of plant drought stress. We conducted a gradient experiment, fully crossing gravimetric water content (GWC: maximum water holding capacity—permanent wilting point) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD: 1−2.25 kPa) using five wheat varieties from three species (Triticum monococcum, T. durum & T. aestivum). We quantified the occurrence of plant drought stress on molecular (abscisic acid), cellular (stomatal conductance), organ (leaf water potential) and stand level (evapotranspiration). Plant drought stress increased with decreasing GWC across all organizational levels. This effect was magnified nonlinearly by VPD after passing a critical threshold of soil water availability. At around 20%GWC (soil matric potential 0.012 MPa), plants lost their ability to regulate leaf water potential via stomata regulation, followed by the emergence of hydraulic dysfunction. The emergence of plant drought stress is characterized by changing relative contributions of soil versus atmosphere and their non‐linear interaction. This highly non‐linear response is likely to abruptly alter plant‐related ecosystem services in a drying world. Summary statement: Plant drought stress emerges from a nonlinear interaction of soil water availability (here estimated based on gravimetric water content, GWC) and atmospheric water demand (vapour pressure deficit, VPD) with the relative contribution of VPD accelerating below a critical threshold of GWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overgeneralization and a lack of baseline data for microorganisms in high‐latitude environments have restricted the understanding of the microbial response to climate change, which is needed to establish Antarctic conservation frameworks. To bridge this gap, we examined over 17,000 sequence variants of bacteria and microeukarya across the hyperarid Vestfold Hills and Windmill Islands regions of eastern Antarctica. Using an extended gradient forest model, we quantified multispecies response to variations along 79 edaphic gradients to explore the effects of change and wind‐driven dispersal on community dynamics under projected warming trends. We also analyzed a second set of soil community data from the Windmill Islands to test our predictions of major environmental tipping points. Soil moisture was the most robust predictor for shaping the regional soil microbiome; the highest rates of compositional turnover occurred at 10–12% soil moisture threshold for photoautotrophs, such as Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, and Ochrophyta. Dust profiles revealed a high dispersal propensity for Chlamydomonas, a microalga, and higher biomass was detected at trafficked research stations. This could signal the potential for algal blooms and increased nonendemic species dispersal as human activities increase in the region. Predicted increases in moisture availability on the Windmill Islands were accompanied by high photoautotroph abundances. Abundances of rare oligotrophic taxa, such as Eremiobacterota and Candidatus Dormibacterota, which play a crucial role in atmospheric chemosynthesis, declined over time. That photosynthetic taxa increased as soil moisture increased under a warming scenario suggests the potential for competition between primary production strategies and thus a more biotically driven ecosystem should the climate become milder. Better understanding of environmental triggers will aid conservation efforts, and it is crucial that long‐term monitoring of our study sites be established for the protection of Antarctic desert ecosystems. Furthermore, the successful implementation of an improved gradient forest model presents an exciting opportunity to broaden its use on microbial systems globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the transition from meteorological to hydrological drought is essential for accurately predicting hydrological droughts. However, the factors driving this transition are intricate, and a comprehensive understanding of how direct human activities influence this shift in drought is lacking. In this study, we initially explored the spatiotemporal correlation between the occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts. Subsequently, we formulated multiple hydrological replenishment scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to assess the environmental impact of the transition from meteorological to hydrological droughts. The Xijiang River Basin (XRB), the primary tributary of the Pearl River basin, was selected as the study area. Our results identified 91 meteorological droughts in the XRB, and only 66 hydrological droughts from 1978 to 2018. The transition rate from meteorological to hydrological drought demonstrated large spatial variability, with a basin‐average rate of 56% and the lowest transition rate of 45% in the headstream The transition from meteorological to hydrological drought was mostly rapid between November and December (~2 months), but can be prolonged during spring (about 3–5 months) and winter (around 7–9 months). Additionally, analysis of regeneration scenarios indicated that human activity has mitigated drought severity over recent decades. The primary driver affecting drought duration and frequency during the transition from meteorological to hydrological droughts shows conspicuous spatial disparities in densely populated areas. Although human activity significantly contributes to drought duration and severity compared to climate change during the transition in the headstream, its effects are more pronounced downstream in terms of drought duration and frequency. One plausible explanation is that increased water consumption downstream has considerably prolonged drought progression, whereas water management has counteractive effects on drought progression due to climate change in the headstream. Our findings offer valuable insights into the transition process from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the presence of extensive human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the relationships between soil moisture, cloud cover, solar radiation, air temperature and humidity, and precipitation during the warm half of the year in East‐Central Europe over the years 1971–2020. The temporal and spatial variability of these meteorological elements is presented in association with the occurrence of anticyclonic blocking events over the study area. It demonstrates that changes in soil moisture in East‐Central Europe point to the combined influence of many meteorological factors resulting from the atmospheric circulation, and are an indicator of the comprehensive relationships among those factors. The main factors affecting soil water content are precipitation and evapotranspiration, which in turn depend on air humidity, cloudiness, intensity of solar radiation and air temperature. The increase in the frequency and duration of sequences of days with blocking events in East‐Central Europe has contributed to an increased probability of longer periods with soil moisture negative anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organisms play a key role in carbon and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems. While soil organisms are strongly influenced by litter chemistry and are highly sensitive to abiotic conditions, little is known about the interactive effects of these two factors. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted a 10 week microcosm experiment in which we simulated the effects of climate change on soil ecology. More specifically, we studied relationships among litter nutrient concentration, microbial biomass, Collembola demographic parameters, and litter decomposition, exploring the potential impacts of increasing air temperature and decreasing soil moisture. To develop a gradient of nutrient concentrations, we created six tree litter mixtures with materials gathered from Quercus pubescens and its companion species. In contrast to microbes, we observed that Collembola abundance and litter decomposition were interactively affected by soil moisture and air temperature: the negative effect of increasing air temperature on Collembola abundance was amplified by reduced soil moisture, whereas the positive effect of increasing air temperature on litter decomposition disappeared under reduced soil moisture conditions. In contrast to fungi, the response of bacterial biomass and Collembola abundance to litter nutrient concentration was dependent on abiotic conditions. More specifically, the relationships between nutrients, especially calcium and magnesium, and bacterial biomass and Collembola abundance were less robust or disappeared under drier or warmer conditions. In conclusion, our findings underscore that ongoing climate change could affect soil organisms directly as well as indirectly, by altering their responses to litter nutrient concentrations. In addition, we found that nutrient‐rich habitats might be more affected than nutrient‐poor habitats by altered climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water availability strongly influences the survival, growth, and reproduction of most terrestrial plant species. Experimental evidence has well documented the effect of changes in total amount of water availability on non‐native vs. native plants. However, little is known about how fluctuations in water availability affect these two groups, although more extreme fluctuations in water availability increasingly occur with prolonged drought and extreme precipitation events. Here, we grew seven non‐native and seven native plant species individually in the greenhouse. Then, we exposed them to four watering treatments, each treatment with the same total amount of water, but with different divisions: W1 (added water 16 times with 125 mL per time), W2 (8 times, 250 mL per time), W3 (4 times, 500 mL per time), and W4 (2 times, 1000 mL per time). We found that both non‐native and native plants produced the most biomass under medium frequency/magnitude watering treatments (W2 and W3). Interestingly, non‐native plants produced 34% more biomass with the infrequent, substantial watering treatment (W4) than with frequent, minor watering treatment (W1), whereas native plants showed opposite patterns, producing 26% more biomass with W1 than with W4. Differences in the ratio of root to shoot under few/large and many/small watering treatments of non‐native vs. native species probably contributed to their different responses in biomass production. Our results advance the current understanding of the effect of water availability on non‐native plants, which are affected not only by changes in amount of water availability but also by fluctuations in water availability. Furthermore, our results indicate that an increased few/large precipitation pattern expected under climate change conditions might further promote non‐native plant invasions. Future field experiments with multiple phylogenetically controlled pairs of non‐native and native species will be required to enhance our understanding of how water availability fluctuations impact on non‐native invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most rapid climate warming is occurring in northern, permafrost environments. Peatlands of these regions are particularly sensitive to climate warming, with the high ground ice content of peat plateaux resulting in the formation of collapse scars as ground temperatures warm.To quantify the rates of permafrost thaw and associated vegetation changes, we sampled the plant and lichen communities in transects spanning actively thawing collapse scar margins at sites from mid‐Boreal to Low Subarctic conditions, within Canada's Northwest Territories. Seventeen transects were sampled in 2007/08 and 14 of these were resampled 10 years later.The rate of lateral permafrost thaw of collapse scar margins ranged from −6 to 63 cm year−1 (mean: 22.0 cm ± 4.7 cm year−1 (SE)); variability was high and no trends with respect to latitude or temperature gradients were detected.Plant communities displayed a clear gradient from lichen‐ and ericaceous shrub‐dominated peat plateaux, to collapse scars primarily characterized by Sphagnum mosses and graminoids. Both space‐for‐time (distance from collapsing margin) and direct measurement of 10‐year changes showed a successional sequence following permafrost thaw; floating mat communities characterized by Sphagnum riparium or S. balticum proceeded to lawn communities of S. angustifolium and, finally, to hummock communities with Mylia anomala or S. fuscum. This successional sequence was associated with increased water table depth and lower soil water content in plant communities farther from the actively collapsing front, illustrating that peat growth above the water table was driving plant community successional changes.The most rapid plant community succession occurred in recently thawed environments as peat growth propelled the ground surface above the water table while the slowest succession occurred in the collapse scar hummock communities located farthest from the actively collapsing peat plateau margin.Synthesis. In just 10 years, significant vegetation change was detected, in association with both permafrost thaw and subsequent plant community succession. These changes occurred across a broad climatic and latitudinal gradient, from mid‐Boreal to Low Subarctic and have implications for wildlife, global C cycle and indigenous communities who depend on this landscape for harvesting, spiritual and cultural practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change alters environmental conditions in ways that directly and indirectly affect plants. Flowering plants, for example, modify reproductive allocation in response to heat and drought stress, and such changes can in turn affect pollinator visitation and, ultimately, plant reproduction. Although the individual effects of warming and drought on plant reproductive allocation are well known, these factors may interact to influence reproduction. Here, we conducted a fully crossed temperature by irrigation manipulation in squash (Cucurbita pepo) to test how temperature and soil moisture variation affect pollinator‐mediated reproduction. To tease apart the direct and indirect effects of temperature and soil moisture, we compared hand‐pollinated plants to bee‐pollinated plants and restricted bee foraging (i.e., pollen transfer) to one experimental group per day. Temperature and soil‐moisture limitation acted independently of one another: warming decreased flower size and increased pollen production, whereas the effects of soil‐moisture limitation were uniformly inhibitory. While treatments did not change squash bee (Xenoglossa spp.) behavior, floral visitation by the honey bee (Apis mellifera) increased with temperature in male flowers and decreased with soil moisture in female flowers. Pollen deposition by bees was independent of plant soil moisture, yet reducing soil moisture increased pollen limitation. This result stemmed at least in part from the effects of soil‐moisture limitation on pollen viability; seed set declined with increasing deposition of fluorescent pigment (a proxy for pollen) from plants experiencing decreased soil moisture. These findings suggest that the transfer of lower‐quality pollen from plants experiencing soil‐moisture limitation led to drought‐induced pollen limitation. Similar effects may occur in a wide variety of flowering plant species as climate warming and drought increasingly impact animal‐pollinated systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Understanding the capacity of temperate trees to acclimate to limited soil water has become essential in the face of increasing drought risk due to climate change. We documented seasonal – or phenological – patterns in acclimation to water deficit stress in stems and leaves of tree species spanning the angiosperm phylogeny.Over 3 yr of field observations carried out in two US arboreta, we measured stem vulnerability to embolism (36 individuals of 7 Species) and turgor loss point (119 individuals of 27 species) over the growing season. We also conducted a growth chamber experiment on 20 individuals of one species to assess the mechanistic relationship between soil water restriction and acclimation.In three‐quarters of species measured, plants became less vulnerable to embolism and/or loss of turgor over the growing season. We were able to stimulate this acclimatory effect by withholding water in the growth chamber experiment.Temperate angiosperms are capable of acclimation to soil water deficit stress, showing maximum vulnerability to soil water deficits following budbreak and becoming more resilient to damage over the course of the growing season or in response to simulated drought. The species‐specific tempo and extent of this acclimatory potential constitutes preadaptive climate change resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable of the Earth system. Understanding its spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for predicting weather patterns and climate variability, monitoring and mitigating the effects and occurrence of droughts and floods, improving irrigation in agricultural areas, and sustainably managing water resources. Here we review in depth how soils can remember information on soil moisture anomalies over time, as embedded in the concept of soil moisture memory (SMM). We explain the mechanisms underlying SMM and explore its external and internal drivers; we also discuss the impacts of SMM on different land surface processes, focusing on soil‐plant‐atmosphere coupling. We explore the spatiotemporal variability, seasonality, locality, and depth‐dependence of SMM and provide insights into both improving its characterization in land surface models and using satellite observations to quantify it. Finally, we offer guidance for further research on SMM. Plain Language Summary: Our review paper takes an in‐depth look at soil moisture memory, which is how soil records its moisture history over time and space. Analogous to human psychology, which seeks to understand how a person's/society's memory influences his/her present and future behavior, understanding soil moisture memory encourages consideration of how such memory determines present state and might determine future behavior of soils exposed to environmental disturbances. Soil moisture memory can be affected by a variety of factors, both external (e.g., weather extremes) and internal (soil's unique properties). It affects everything from the air to the way our landscapes respond to disasters like droughts, wildfires, and floods. We also studied how this phenomenon affects the balance of water and energy in our environment, the health of our plants, and even how it communicates with the atmosphere. We show how it can change depending on where you are on the planet, the time of year, and how deep you dig into the soil. We offer scientists insights into how weather and land surface models can become more accurate by accounting for soil moisture memory. Its understanding not only helps us predict and manage our environment, but also provides opportunities for exciting scientific discoveries. Key Points: Atmospheric forcings, land use and management, and soil processes and mechanisms explain how and why soil moisture memory emerges in ecosystemsNonlocality of moisture memory, its spread across different regions, and its interaction with large‐scale climate phenomena are underexploredFurther advances in land surface models and closer integration of model simulations and observations are needed to better characterize moisture memory [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming exacerbates the increase of soil moisture drought by accelerating the water cycle, posing potential threats to food security and ecological sustainability. The design of drought prevention and mitigation policies should be based on the reliable detection of the future change signal in droughts, so it is critical to know when the signal can be detected (Time of Emergence, ToE) in the background noise of the climate system. While the ToE framework has been successfully applied for temperature‐related signal detection, the ToE for changes in drought has not been well studied. Based on 66 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model ensemble members under four Shared Socio‐economic Pathways, we conduct a global ToE analysis of seasonal soil moisture drought characteristics and discuss the impact of different warming levels. Six subregions with robust increase in soil moisture droughts are identified. For drought frequency, most of the subregion's ToE is centered around 2080, however for drought intensity it is much earlier and can even reach around 2040 in AMZ. For drought frequency and drought intensity, approximately 14%–22% and 47%–49% of global land areas would reach ToE in 21st century. The global land areas with ToE of increasing droughts would increase by at least 1/5 when global warming level is kept to 2°C rather than 1.5°C above pre‐industrial conditions. This suggests that limiting global warming can significantly delay the emergence time of increases in seasonal soil moisture droughts, allowing additional adaptation time for the drought‐related sectors. Plain Language Summary: Global warming has increased the frequency of droughts, especially soil moisture droughts with widespread impacts. Thus, when would the soil moisture drought change exceed the noise of the climate system and signal "emerge" (Time of Emergence, ToE) has far‐reaching implication for relevant government departments and stakeholders to make corresponding adaptations. In this work, the future changes in seasonal soil moisture droughts are projected by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6, multi‐model simulations of historical and future climate) data under four possible future development scenarios (named Shared Socio‐economic Pathways), and the effects of controlling global warming levels on the ToE of droughts are discussed. Results show that the frequency of seasonal soil moisture droughts would increase over 42%–48% of global land areas in the future, and 14%–22% of global land areas would show detectable signals of increased drought frequency before 2100. If the global warming level is controlled within 2°C rather than 1.5°C, the areas with ToE would increase by at least one fifth, except for drought intensity under the scenario of the most energy‐saving and emission reduction. This work highlights the risk of rapid emergence of robust soil moisture drought increases under climate change. Key Points: The timing of detectable future changes in seasonal soil moisture droughts are identified through the time of emergence frameworkDetectable increase signals in drought frequency and intensity are predicted in 14%–22% and 47%–49% of land areas by the end of this centuryThe areas of detectable signals for drought characteristics would increase by 1/5 when limiting warming within 2°C compared to 1.5°C [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is expected to increase in temperate regions in the coming decades due to global climate change and will strongly affect nitrogen (N) transformation and balance. However, the underlying mechanisms (soil microenvironment vs. biotic community) of rainfall reduction induced changes in soil N transformation rates, and whether the responses of soil N transformation rates to rainfall reduction vary over time remains poorly understood. In this study, we experimentally examined rainfall reduction effects on soil N transformation rates over two (the second and third experimental years) growing‐seasons in a temperate meadow. We applied four treatments: ambient rainfall, 30%, 50%, and 70% reduction in rainfall. Our findings demonstrated that, 70% rainfall reduction significantly decreased the average net N mineralization and nitrification rates by 68.4% and 72.0%, respectively. Soil nitrous oxide emission was profoundly varied between the experimental years, with it was sensitive no only to changes in annual precipitation amount, but also to seasonal distribution, the highest emissions appeared at the early growing‐season. Moreover, plant diversity, microbial biomass, and soil NO3−‐N content mainly regulated soil N transformation rates in response to rainfall reduction in the greater annual precipitation year; but soil N transformation rates were mainly controlled by soil water content in the less annual precipitation year. We suggest that to accurately project future ecosystem functions and improving the prediction of N cycling responses to changing precipitation patterns, stronger focus should be allocated not only to changes in precipitation amounts, but also to inter‐ and intra‐annual differences in precipitation distribution. Plain Language Summary: The variation in precipitation regimes may have profound impacts on soil N cycling. To understand how the soil N transformation rates respond to different rainfall levels, we used rainout shelters to simulate reduced precipitation amount in a temperate meadow. We examined a suite of soil N transformations responses. Our results showed that soil N transformation rates decreased along the gradient of declining in rainfall amount over the two sampling years, with inter‐ and intra‐annual variation in precipitation distribution also played important roles in determining soil N transformation rates. The high values of each soil N transformation rates were appeared at different periods of the growing‐seasons. We also examined the pathways associated with the responses of soil N transformation rates to rainfall reduction in the two contrasting precipitation years. In summary, we conclude that rainfall reduction led to reductions in soil N transformation rates through a combination of plant, microbial, and soil factors during the greater annual precipitation. Nonetheless, in the less annual precipitation, the key factor determining N transformations was found to be soil water content. These findings offer valuable insights for forecasting interactions within the plant‐microbe‐soil N cycling system under forthcoming precipitation patterns within the context of climate change. Key Points: The high soil N transformation rates corresponded to a certain precipitation range at regional scaleRainfall reduction decreased soil N transformation rates via changing plant, microbial, and soil factors in greater precipitation yearSoil water content was the key factor determining soil N transformation rates, especially in less precipitation year [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing impacts of flash droughts (FDs) on the water‐food nexus requires a understanding of FD mechanisms and drivers at the watershed level. Examining climatic drivers, dry and wet spell lengths from 1980 to 2019, we analyzed FD spatial and temporal characteristics, emphasizing areal extent, onset time, and duration. Our findings reveal substantial variations in FDs among different watersheds. Notably, watersheds in the Southern Hemisphere are witnessing expanding, faster‐developing, and longer‐lasting FDs, aligning with climate variations in precipitation and temperature. Additionally, at the watershed scale, the onset and duration of FDs are more influenced by the intensity (magnitude and variability) of climatic drivers than the average length of wet and dry periods. FD‐extents, however, correlate with both climatic conditions and wet and dry periods, underscoring watershed connectivity. Ultimately, our results underscore the necessity for research to comprehend the interplay between FDs and watershed characteristics and how it manifests in overall water resource management. Plain Language Summary: Flash droughts (FDs), which are sudden and severe dry periods, are causing problems for our water and food systems and making it harder to prepare for disasters. To address these challenges effectively, it is crucial to gain a thorough understanding of the underlying mechanisms and factors driving FDs at the watershed level. In this study, we looked at climatic patterns alongside the lengths of dry and wet periods spanning from 1980 to 2019. Our primary focus was on three key aspects: the extent of FDs, when they begin, and how long they persist. Our research findings demonstrate considerable variations in FDs occurrences across different regions. Notably, in the Southern Hemisphere, FDs are expanding rapidly, developing more swiftly, and enduring for extended periods, closely mirroring shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Interestingly, the onset and duration of FDs seem to depend more on the intensity of climatic factors than on how long it's been dry or wet. The expansion of FDs in a region is linked to both the climatic and dry/wet periods, emphasizing the geophysical connectivity within a watershed. Key Points: Watersheds in tropical, temperate climates, and with savanna and grassland land cover are more susceptible to flash droughts (FDs)FDs extents are affected by intraannual precipitation variability, but not by intraannual air temperature variabilityThe onset and duration of FD at the watershed scale are influenced more by climate variables, than average wet/dry spell periods [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts. Plain Language Summary: Regional warming associated with climate change is already making droughts worse in many places. This trend is expected to continue as global temperatures increase in response to continued emissions of greenhouse gases. With increasing temperatures, soils are projected to lose water to the atmosphere as it draws more and more moisture from the land surface, increasing drought risk. At the same time, climate change is also projected to shift precipitation patterns. This means it is important to understand how changes in rainfall will cause and end droughts in the future. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we investigate how future warming will impact the influence of precipitation on soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North America. Our results suggest that current levels of monthly precipitation will be insufficient to alleviate drought conditions in a warmer world. Key Points: Warming causes declines in soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North AmericaThe probability of a moderate soil moisture drought increases during both low and high precipitation anomalies, even at 1°C of warmingThe ability of large positive precipitation anomalies to terminate soil moisture droughts will be substantially reduced in a warmer world [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolutionary dynamics of tree species are influenced by their specific climatic environments, and their ability to persist is determined by adaptive strategies such as broad climate tolerance, phenotypic plasticity or genetic differentiation. Biogeographical predictions indicate that populations located at the edges of their ranges are more likely to experience heightened vulnerability to climatic fluctuations due to approaching tolerance limits. However, if local phenotypic acclimation or genetic adaptation has taken place, trees near the edge of their range could demonstrate comparable sensitivity to freeze and drought as the rest of the sampled population. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of developmental and evolutionary adjustments in climate sensitivity across the entire ranges of many tree species.Here, we document the biogeography of tree growth sensitivity to freeze and soil water and vapour pressure deficits during 1950–2018 using an extensive multi‐species tree‐ring dataset of 35,784 trees at 4535 sites covering boreal, temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests of Canada. We quantify the relationships between tree radial growth increment and seasonal climate variables and explore factors driving the observed patterns of annual growth and climate sensitivity such as species, regional climate and local site conditions, and tree age and size.Freeze and drought had widespread impacts on tree growth that were contingent on the presence of focal species in interaction with tree size. An indirect growth thermal limitation towards cold/wet edges, occurring through the site moisture conditions, was observed in seven widespread species (e.g. Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Larix laricina). Moreover, six species had negative drought impacts more strongly expressed towards their warm/dry edges (e.g. Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera and Pseudotsuga menziesii). However, widespread Picea, Pinus and Populus species showed no indication of increased sensitivity to soil water conditions at these edges.Synthesis. Our findings support the idea of evolutionary or acclimatization adjustments in the development of populations in response to long‐term climate conditions experienced in their respective locations. This underscores the importance of incorporating phenotypic and genomic data into future analyses of climate change impacts, which would enhance our ability to predict potential ecological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grasslands, which encompass 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, hold global significance for food production, carbon storage and other ecosystem services. However, grasslands across the biosphere are becoming increasingly exposed to both wet and dry precipitation extremes resulting from climate change.Therefore, understanding how grasslands will respond to precipitation extremes is a pressing issue for managing changes to biodiversity and ecosystem service provision.Here, we use experimental manipulations of precipitation (50% increase and 50% decrease in growing‐season precipitation) over 6 years to investigate the stability and resistance of both productivity and community diversity in a calcareous grassland community.We found that decreased growing‐season precipitation led to reductions in mean productivity (25% decrease in peak above‐ground biomass) and its temporal stability (54% increase in the coefficient of variation of biomass across years). Productivity losses were more pronounced for graminoids and legumes, but this was not reflected in species per cent cover. Community composition was resistant to the precipitation manipulations, with no clear differences in overall community compositional turnover, dissimilarity or biodiversity indices. There was also no detectible effect of increased precipitation on productivity or community composition, which may indicate a lack of efficacy of the irrigation treatment in increasing soil moisture. Finally, the precipitation manipulations had no effect on temporal trends of community change, with an overall increase in richness and shift in grassland community composition across the study period independent of treatment.Synthesis. While the diversity and composition of this calcareous grassland was resistant to precipitation extremes (at least in the short term), sustained reductions in growing‐season precipitation reduced productivity and its temporal stability, particularly for graminoids and legumes. Therefore, we highlight that different properties of grasslands can vary in their responses to changes in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD, and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery), from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions, are poorly understood. Therefore, we investigate the characteristics of drought propagation and recovery time lags for droughts of four timescales and a combination of drought onset and cessation criteria in 407 unregulated catchments within six major precipitation zones across the country. We find that the propagation and recovery lags depend on climatic conditions, drought criteria and timescales. The median of catchment average propagation times from MD to HD across Australia varied from 0.8 to 1.7 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 2.2–5.0 months for 12‐month timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 1.3–3.7 and 1.7–7.0 months respectively. Similarly, the median of catchment average propagation times from MD to AD ranged from 0.8 to 1.9 months for 1‐month timescales, increasing to 0.6–5.0 months for 12‐month. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 0.7–2.8 and 0.3–8.7 months respectively. For droughts of smaller timescales, propagation and recovery lags are linearly correlated with recovery lagtimes consistently greater than propagation times. However, as the timescale increases, these relationships weaken suggesting effects of other catchment attributes (e.g., groundwater contributions) on lag relationships. Plain Language Summary: The primary focus of the research is to investigate the time delay between the occurrence of the lack of precipitation (meteorological droughts) and its subsequent impact on river flow (hydrological drought) and soil moisture (agricultural drought). Understanding these delays is crucial for drought planning and management. This study uses observed precipitation, river flow, and satellite‐based soil moisture data spanning over 40 years across six major precipitation zones within Australia. The delays between drought types (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) vary depending on the specific location within Australia. The criteria used to define the onset and end of droughts, as well as the drought duration, also influence the observed delays. The average delay from meteorological to hydrological or agricultural droughts increases with longer timescales. For example, hydrological droughts measured on 1‐month timescale have shorter delays (0.8–1.7 months), while 12‐month droughts have longer delays (2.2–5 months). Similarly, shorter droughts have shorter recovery times, while longer droughts have longer recovery times. For shorter timescale droughts, there is a clear relationship between the delays with end delays consistently greater than the start delays. However, as droughts become larger and more prolonged, the relationship weakens, suggesting the influence of other catchment attributes. Key Points: Drought propagation and recovery behaviors for a large sample of catchments under varied climatic zones within Australia are investigatedPropagation and recovery lag relationships are well‐defined for shorter droughts but are increasingly indefinable for longer droughtsPropagation (TP) and recovery lags (TR) depend on drought severity with shorter TP to milder droughts and longer TR to milder droughts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts drive warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and forest fires. In 2020, a wildfire scorched about 1508 hectares of black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) forests in Türkiye. Whether the combined effects of lack of snow and forest fires significantly alter winter soil respiration (Rs) and soil temperature remains poorly understood. A field experiment was conducted in the postfire and undisturbed black pine forests during the winter to quantify Rs rates as affected by lack of snow and forest fire. We applied four treatments: snow‐exclusion postfire (SEPF), snow postfire (SPF), snow‐exclusion‐undisturbed forest (SEUF), and snow undisturbed forest (SUF). The SEPF exhibited the significantly lowest mean Rs rates (0.71 μmol m−2 s−1) compared to the SPF (1.02 μmol m−2 s−1), SEUF (1.44 μmol m−2 s−1), and SUF (1.48 μmol m−2 s−1). The Rs also showed significant variations with time (p <.0001). However, treatments and time revealed no statistically significant interaction effects (p =.6801). Total winter Rs (January–March) ranged from 4.47 to 4.59 Mt CO2 ha−1 in the undisturbed forest and 2.20 to 3.16 Mt CO2 ha−2 in the postfire site. The Rs showed a significantly positive relationship (p <.0001) with the soil (0.59) and air (0.46) temperatures and a significantly negative relationship (p =.0017) with the soil moisture (−0.20) at the 5 cm depth. In contrast, the Rs indicated a negative but not statistically significant relationship (p =.0932) with the soil moisture (−0.16) at the 10 cm soil depth. The combined effects of lack of snow and forest fire significantly decreased Rs, thus conserving the soil's organic carbon stocks and reducing the CO2 contribution to the atmosphere. In contrast, a warmer winter significantly increased Rs rates in the undisturbed forest, suggesting an acceleration of soil organic carbon losses and providing positive feedback to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Question: Climate change intensifies global and regional water cycles, leading to changes in both the magnitude and timing of precipitation. Precipitation use efficiency (PUE) plays a crucial role in measuring the response of above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP) to precipitation changes. However, little is known about how changes in precipitation during different periods affect PUE. Methods: Using a manipulation precipitation experiment in a semi‐arid steppe, we simulated a 60% increase and decrease in precipitation during the early (April–June), late (July–September), and entire (April–September) growing seasons across 2015–2021 to examine the effects of changes in precipitation timing on PUE. Results: The results showed that: (1) decreased precipitation in the late growing season (DLP) and whole growing season (DWP) stimulated PUE by an average of 0.14 and 0.12 g m−2 mm−1 yr−1 respectively, whereas increased precipitation in the late growing season (ILP) and whole growing season (IWP) suppressed PUE by an average of 0.11 and 0.09 g m−2 mm−1 yr−1 respectively. By contrast, neither decreased nor increased precipitation in the early growing season affected PUE; (2) the increased PUE under DLP was primarily attributed to the increase of PUE in grass (GR) and annuals and biennials (AB), whereas the elevation of PUE under DWP was mainly due to an increase of PUE in AB. By contrast, the reduction of PUE under ILP was mainly caused by a decline of PUE in GR; (3) changes in evapotranspiration and leaf dry matter content (LDMC) explained the variation of PUE in AB while changes of PUE in GR was mainly due to the alteration of soil water content and LDMC. Conclusions: These results suggest that precipitation during the late growing season has a crucial influence on PUE, highlighting the importance of evapotranspiration and LDMC in regulating ecosystem productivity in the semi‐arid steppe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review results from field experiments that simulate drought, an ecologically impactful global change threat that is predicted to increase in magnitude, extent, duration and frequency. Our goal is to address, from primarily an ecosystem perspective, the questions 'What have we learned from drought experiments?' and 'Where do we go from here?'.Drought experiments are among the most numerous climate change manipulations and have been deployed across a wide range of biomes, although most are conducted in short‐statured, water‐limited ecosystems. Collectively, these experiments have enabled ecologists to quantify the negative responses to drought that occur for most aspects of ecosystem structure and function. Multiple meta‐analyses of responses have also enabled comparisons of relative effect sizes of drought across hundreds of sites, particularly for carbon cycle metrics. Overall, drought experiments have provided strong evidence that ecosystem sensitivity to drought increases with aridity, but that plant traits associated with aridity are not necessarily predictive of drought resistance. There is also intriguing evidence that as drought magnitude or duration increases to extreme levels, plant strategies may shift from drought tolerance to drought escape/avoidance.We highlight three areas where more drought experiments are needed to advance our understanding. First, because drought is intensifying in multiple ways, experiments are needed that address alterations in drought magnitude versus duration, timing and/or frequency (individually and interactively). Second, drivers of drought may be shifting—from precipitation deficits to rising atmospheric demand for water—and disentangling how ecosystems respond to changes in hydrological 'supply versus demand' is critical for understanding drought impacts in the future. Finally, more attention should be focussed on post‐drought recovery periods since legacies of drought can affect ecosystem functioning much longer than the drought itself.We conclude with a call for a fundamental shift in the focus of drought experiments from those designed primarily as 'response experiments', quantifying the magnitude of change in ecosystem structure and function, to more 'mechanistic experiments'—those that explicitly manipulate ecological processes or attributes thought to underpin drought responses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Earth observation‐based estimates of land–atmosphere exchange of carbon are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. Temperature, soil water content and gross primary production are the main drivers of ecosystem respiration (Reco), and the main aims of this study are to develop an Reco model driven by long‐term global‐scale Earth observations and to study Reco spatiotemporal dynamics 1982–2015. Location: Global scale. Time Period: 1982–2015. Major Taxa Studied: Terrestrial ecosystems. Methods: We parameterized and applied a global Reco model for 1982–2015 using novel Earth observation‐based data. We studied the relationships between Reco measured at field sites globally and land surface temperature, gross primary production and soil water content. Trends 1982–2015 were quantified, and the contributions from terrestrial regions to the spatiotemporal variability were evaluated. Results: The Reco model (LGS‐Reco) captured the between‐site and intra‐ and interannual variability in field‐observed Reco and soil respiration well in comparison with other Earth observation‐based products. The global annual Reco was on average 105.6 ± 2.3 Pg C for 1982–2015, which is close to 105 Pg C according to residuals of the carbon exchange processes within the global carbon budgets. The trend in global terrestrial Reco 1982–2015 was 0.19 ± 0.02 Pg C y−1, with the strongest positive trends found in cropland areas, whereas negative trends were primarily observed for savannah/shrublands of Southern Africa and South America. Trends were especially strong during the eighties and nineties, but substantially smaller 1998–2015. Main Conclusions: The LGS‐Reco model revealed a substantial increase in global Reco during recent decades. However, the growth rates of global Reco were slower during 1998–2015, partially explaining the reduced growth rates of atmospheric CO2 during this period. The LGR‐Reco product may be an essential source for studying carbon sources and sinks and functioning of the Earth system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes inhabiting deep soil layers are known to be different from their counterpart in topsoil yet remain under investigation in terms of their structure, function, and how their diversity is shaped. The microbiome of deep soils (>1 m) is expected to be relatively stable and highly independent from climatic conditions. Much less is known, however, on how these microbial communities vary along climate gradients. Here, we used amplicon sequencing to investigate bacteria, archaea, and fungi along fifteen 18‐m depth profiles at 20–50‐cm intervals across contrasting aridity conditions in semi‐arid forest ecosystems of China's Loess Plateau. Our results showed that bacterial and fungal α diversity and bacterial and archaeal community similarity declined dramatically in topsoil and remained relatively stable in deep soil. Nevertheless, deep soil microbiome still showed the functional potential of N cycling, plant‐derived organic matter degradation, resource exchange, and water coordination. The deep soil microbiome had closer taxa–taxa and bacteria–fungi associations and more influence of dispersal limitation than topsoil microbiome. Geographic distance was more influential in deep soil bacteria and archaea than in topsoil. We further showed that aridity was negatively correlated with deep‐soil archaeal and fungal richness, archaeal community similarity, relative abundance of plant saprotroph, and bacteria–fungi associations, but increased the relative abundance of aerobic ammonia oxidation, manganese oxidation, and arbuscular mycorrhizal in the deep soils. Root depth, complexity, soil volumetric moisture, and clay play bridging roles in the indirect effects of aridity on microbes in deep soils. Our work indicates that, even microbial communities and nutrient cycling in deep soil are susceptible to changes in water availability, with consequences for understanding the sustainability of dryland ecosystems and the whole‐soil in response to aridification. Moreover, we propose that neglecting soil depth may underestimate the role of soil moisture in dryland ecosystems under future climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) plays a crucial role in connecting various ecological processes in terrestrial ecosystems, as vegetation growth heavily relies on SM availability. Despite many studies evaluating the impacts of SM on vegetation activity, changes in vegetation sensitivity to SM are still poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation sensitivity to SM across the Loess Plateau (LP) region from 1982 to 2010 using satellite‐based normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and reanalysis SM data. Our results showed a significant increase in NDVI (slope = 0.0015/year, p < 0.001) and a slight decrease in SM (slope = −0.0001 m3/m3/year, p = 0.7) over the past 29 years, indicating a greening trend in the LP. By establishing a multiple linear model, we found that the sensitivity of vegetation dynamics to SM has significantly increased during the same period (slope = 0.029, p < 0.05). Spatially, vegetation in over half (51.2%) of the total area showed enhanced sensitivity to SM. Further analysis using the Lindeman–Merenda–Gold method showed that atmospheric CO2 was the major contributor (27.20%) to the sensitivity changes, followed by nitrogen deposition (23.70%) and air temperature (20.11%). Ecosystem structure changes (represented by non‐tree land cover fractions) and precipitation shifts contributed 16.13% and 12.83%, respectively, to sensitivity changes. These findings provide a better understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern and underlying mechanisms of ecosystem sensitivity to SM in the greening and warming LP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has the largest area of alpine grasslands in the world. Among the various grassland types, alpine steppe covers 72 million hectares in the central–western TP, where the climate is even drier than in other alpine ecosystems. Rapid climate warming (0.34°C per decade) since the 1970s has caused significant atmospheric dryness—that is, an increase in the vapor pressure deficit—despite increases in both precipitation and soil moisture on the TP. However, it remains controversial whether the availability of atmospheric or soil moisture has a stronger role in the growth of vegetation. We used eddy covariance to measure the CO2 fluxes in a grazed alpine steppe over three consecutive years. Our results showed that the alpine steppe acted as a net CO2 sink of 47.9–72.7 g C m−2 yr−1 despite significant grazing. The CO2 fluxes showed a clear seasonal pattern, largely regulated by climate factors, although human activities were also documented. The soil moisture content dominated the seasonal variation in the net ecosystem productivity: the importance of soil moisture to the net ecosystem productivity was 49.0%, whereas the importance of the vapor pressure deficit was 36.5%. We found that the surface soil moisture, rather than the water content of soil layers deeper than 10 cm, affected the net CO2 uptake more strongly, although its role may have been affected by intense rainfall. This study emphasizes that the availability of surface soil water rather than atmospheric dryness regulates CO2 uptake in alpine steppe ecosystems, suggesting that a warming–wetting climate will favor the net uptake of CO2 by alpine steppes. Plain Language Summary: Rapid warming as a result of the current global climate crisis has led to increased stress from atmospheric dryness on alpine steppe, the most extensive vegetation type on the Tibetan Plateau. Although soil moisture is increasing with higher precipitation, the relative importance of the effects of atmospheric water and soil moisture on CO2 fluxes is unclear. We measured the CO2 fluxes in an alpine steppe for three consecutive years and found that soil moisture dominated the variability of the net ecosystem productivity. Soil moisture had a more important role than the vapor pressure deficit in regulating net ecosystem productivity across all 3 years. The surface soil moisture content had a greater role in promoting CO2 uptake than the moisture in deeper soil layers. Together, our results from this remote site suggests that the ongoing warming–wetting climate of the Tibetan Plateau may favor the net uptake of CO2 in the alpine steppe ecosystem. Key Points: The alpine steppe of the Tibetan Plateau acts as a net CO2 sink despite significant grazingSoil moisture is more important to the net ecosystem productivity than the vapor pressure deficitA warming–wetting climate will increase net CO2 uptake by alpine steppe ecosystems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires have significant hydrological and ecological impacts in the western U.S. Using a high‐resolution regional climate simulation and wildfire observations for 1984–2018, this study investigates the antecedent hydrometeorological conditions (AHCs) of wildfires in the western U.S. During the warm season (April‐September), the wildfire AHCs feature diverse surface pressure (PS), soil moisture, and longwave/shortwave radiation (LW/SW) conditions. K‐means clustering classifies wildfires into four types with distinct AHCs: low‐PS‐type and high‐PS‐type with lower and higher PS anomalies, respectively, LW‐type featuring intense LW but weak SW anomalies, and wet‐soil‐type with wet soil anomalies. Each fire cluster represents 22%–27% of all the wildfires, featuring different combinations of climate and vegetation conditions and their diverse relations to regional hydrometeorological conditions, with wet‐soil‐type fires often exhibiting opposite correlations with AHCs compared to those of the other three types. In five major Köppen climate zones over the western U.S., clustering‐based predictions improve the seasonal wildfire prediction accuracy (R2) by 10% compared to prediction without classification. Such improvement comes from separating the opposite relationships between wet‐soil‐type fires and their seasonal AHCs from the other three types, along with separating LW‐type fires, which include most of the lightning‐ignited fires that occur more randomly. Increases in wildfire occurrence during 1984–2018 are dominated by the increases in the LW‐type fires, while the wet‐soil‐type fires have decreased, consistent with the long‐term drying in the western U.S. Plain Language Summary: Wildfires have significant hydrological and ecological impacts in the western U.S. Using a long‐term high‐resolution regional climate simulation and wildfire observations for 1984–2018, this study investigates the antecedent hydrometeorological conditions (AHCs) of wildfires in the western U.S. During the warm season, the wildfire AHCs feature diverse surface pressure (PS), moisture, and longwave/shortwave radiation (LW/SW) conditions. K‐means clustering classifies wildfires into four types with distinct AHCs: low‐PS‐type and high‐PS‐type with lower and higher PS, respectively, LW‐type featuring intense LW but weak SW, and wet‐soil‐type, each representing 22%–27% of all the wildfires. This classification strengthens the connections between the seasonal wildfire occurrence and the seasonal AHCs at regional scales, and improves seasonal wildfire prediction accuracy (R2) by 10% compared to no classification. This improvement comes from the clustering of lightning‐ignited fires that feature strong randomness into a single category, and clustering of these wet‐soil‐type fires that often show contrasting relationship to the regional environment as compared to the other types. Increases in wildfire occurrence during 1984–2018 are dominated by increases in the low‐PS‐ and LW‐type, while the wet‐soil‐type has decreased, driven by the long‐term drying in the western U.S. This wildfire clustering scheme can potentially improve the wildfire predictions in the region. Key Points: Wildfires are clustered into four types, each featuring distinct antecedent surface pressure, radiation, and soil moisture conditionsThe distinct relations of the wildfire clusters to geographic, hydrometeorological, and vegetation conditions improve their predictabilityWildfire increases during 1984–2018 are dominated by the low‐pressure and longwave type fires, offset by the reduction of wet‐soil fires [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tundra soils are one of the world's largest organic carbon stores, yet this carbon is vulnerable to accelerated decomposition as climate warming progresses. The landscape‐scale controls of litter decomposition are poorly understood in tundra ecosystems, which hinders our understanding of the global carbon cycle. We examined the extent to which the thermal sum of surface air temperature, soil moisture and permafrost thaw depth influenced litter mass loss and decomposition rates (k), and at which spatial thresholds an environmental variable becomes a reliable predictor of decomposition, using the Tea Bag Index protocol across a heterogeneous tundra landscape on Qikiqtaruk–Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada. We found greater green tea litter mass loss and faster decomposition rates (k) in wetter areas within the landscape, and to a lesser extent in areas with deeper permafrost active layer thickness and higher surface thermal sums. We also found higher decomposition rates (k) on north‐facing relative to south‐facing aspects at microsites that were wetter rather than warmer. Spatially heterogeneous belowground conditions (soil moisture and active layer depth) explained variation in decomposition metrics at local scales (< 50 m2) better than thermal sum. Surprisingly, there was no strong control of elevation or slope on litter decomposition. Our results reveal that there is considerable scale dependency in the environmental controls of tundra litter decomposition, with moisture playing a greater role than the thermal sum at < 50 m2 scales. Our findings highlight the importance and complexity of microenvironmental controls on litter decomposition in estimates of carbon cycling in a rapidly warming tundra biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Accounting for water limitation is key to determining vegetation sensitivity to drought. Quantifying water limitation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) is challenged by the heterogeneity of vegetation types, climate zones and vertically along the rooting zone.Here, we train deep neural networks using flux measurements to study ET responses to progressing drought conditions. We determine a water stress factor (fET) that isolates ET reductions from effects of atmospheric aridity and other covarying drivers. We regress fET against the cumulative water deficit, which reveals the control of whole‐column moisture availability.We find a variety of ET responses to water stress. Responses range from rapid declines of fET to 10% of its water‐unlimited rate at several savannah and grassland sites, to mild fET reductions in most forests, despite substantial water deficits. Most sensitive responses are found at the most arid and warm sites.A combination of regulation of stomatal and hydraulic conductance and access to belowground water reservoirs, whether in groundwater or deep soil moisture, could explain the different behaviors observed across sites. This variety of responses is not captured by a standard land surface model, likely reflecting simplifications in its representation of belowground water storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a long‐term assessment of the impact of projected climate change on selected agro‐climatic indicators in Poland. The analysis was based on an ensemble of six bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX projections covering the period from 2006 to 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5, and partly on simulations of an agro‐hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The indicators included growing season (length, beginning, and ending date), growing degree days, frost days, accumulated frost, and planting and harvest timing. The study focused on four major crops cultivated in Poland, namely spring barley, rapeseed, maize silage, and potato. The analysis revealed a significant future increase in precipitation and mean temperature in Poland reaching +10.3% and 3.4°C by the end of century, respectively. Warmer conditions will significantly accelerate the beginning of the growing season (by up to 24 days) and delay its ending (by up to 18 days), consequently significantly extending its length throughout the country (by up to 42 days). A decrease is projected in potential soil moisture deficit by up to 26 mm by the end of century in the high‐end emission scenario. A significant advancement (by up to 30 days) in planting timing is projected for the future for all crops under consideration. A significant increase in growing degree days (by up to 760°C‐days) will also advance the harvest timing (by up to 54 days). The projected temperature increase over the winter season will result in a significant decrease in frost days (by 56 days) and accumulated frost (by 375°C‐days), which may lead to an increased presence of pests. This study can provide a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to the local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security at the national and local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative humidity (RH) is projected to increase over ocean but decrease over land under anthropogenic warming. The land RH decrease was previously attributed to ocean influences on land changes. Here, we show that interactive soil moisture (SM) is necessary and may be sufficient for anthropogenic warming to reduce the land RH. The land RH decrease is absent in simulations with realistic land‐ocean geometry but fixed SM, and present in simulations with interactive SM but no oceans or changes in precipitation minus evaporation. The land RH decrease is coupled to the SM decline and the latter could be understood as a natural response of interactive SM to anthropogenic warming. Specifically, prior to adjustments in SM and RH, evaporation would increase by ∼6% K−1 following the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, outpacing the radiatively constrained ∼2% K−1 precipitation increase. This prior imbalance depletes SM and consequently reduces RH through the coupling between SM and RH. Plain Language Summary: As a measure of air wetness, relative humidity (RH) is projected to decrease over land under anthropogenic warming, contributing to increasing evaporative demand and intensifying droughts, heatwaves and wildfires. The land RH decrease was previously attributed to influences from ocean, but here we propose an alternative explanation. We first show that the land RH decrease is coupled with the soil moisture (SM) decline. Then, by excluding interactive SM and ocean influences respectively in warming simulations, we illustrate that interactive soil moisture (i.e., soil moisture is fed by precipitation minus evaporation and can in turn affect evaporation through moisture availability) is necessary and may be sufficient to produce a drier land under anthropogenic warming. A conceptual understanding of this declined SM and RH is provided based on theoretical evaporation equations. Key Points: We propose a new explanation for the projected decrease in land relative humidity under anthropogenic warmingComplex and idealized simulations show that interactive soil moisture (SM) is necessary and sufficient for anthropogenic warming to dry the landInteractive SM allows prior imbalance in evaporation and precipitation increases to dry the land independent of ocean influence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkage of stomatal behaviour with photosynthesis is critical to understanding water and carbon cycles under global change. The relationship of stomatal conductance (gs) and CO2 assimilation (Anet) across a range of environmental contexts, as represented in the model parameter (g1), has served as a proxy of the marginal water cost of carbon acquisition. We use g1 to assess species differences in stomatal behaviour to a decade of open‐air experimental climate change manipulations, asking whether generalisable patterns exist across species and climate contexts. Anet‐gs measurements (17 727) for 21 boreal and temperate tree species under ambient and +3.3°C warming, and ambient and ~40% summer rainfall reduction, provided >2700 estimates of g1. Warming and/or reduced rainfall treatments both lowered g1 because those treatments resulted in lower soil moisture and because stomatal behaviour changed more in warming when soil moisture was low. Species tended to respond similarly, although, in species from warmer and drier habitats, g1 tended to be slightly higher and to be the least sensitive to the decrease in soil water. Overall, both warming and rainfall reduction consistently made stomatal behaviour more conservative in terms of water loss per unit carbon gain across 21 species and a decade of experimental observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly temperature and precipitation data for 923 United States Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units are used as inputs to a monthly water balance model to compute monthly actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture storage, and runoff across the western United States (U.S.) for the period 1900 through 2020. Time series of these water balance variables are examined to characterize and explain the dry conditions across the western U.S. since the year 2000. Results indicate that although precipitation deficits account for most of the changes in actual evapotranspiration and runoff, increases in temperature primarily explain decreases in soil moisture storage. Specifically, temperature has been particularly impactful on the magnitude of negative departures of soil moisture storage during the spring (April through June) and summer (July through September) seasons. These effects on soil moisture may be particularly detrimental to agriculture in regions already stressed by drought such as the western U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change drives a northward shift of biomes in high‐latitude regions. This might have consequences on the decomposition of plant litter entering the soil, including its lignin component, which is one of the most abundant components of vascular plants. In order to elucidate the combined effect of climate and soil characteristics on the decomposition pattern of lignin, we investigated lignin contents and its degree of oxidative decomposition within soil profiles along a climosequence in western Siberia. Soil samples were collected from organic topsoil to mineral subsoil at six sites along a 1500‐km latitudinal transect, stretching from tundra, through taiga and forest steppe to typical steppe. The stage of lignin degradation, as mirrored by decreasing organic carbon‐normalized lignin contents and increasing oxidative alteration of the remnant lignin (acid‐to‐aldehyde ratios of vanillyl‐ and syringyl‐units [(Ac/Al)V and (Ac/Al)S]) within soil horizons, increased from tundra to forest steppe and then decreased to the steppe. Principal component analysis, involving also climatic conditions such as mean annual temperature and aridity index, showed that the different states of lignin degradation between horizons related well to the activity of phenoloxidases and peroxidases, enzymes involved in lignin depolymerization that are produced primarily by fungi and less importantly by bacteria. The low microbial lignin decomposition in the tundra was likely due to low temperature and high soil moisture, which do not favour the fungi. Increasing temperature and decreasing soil moisture, facilitating a higher abundance of fungi, led to increased fungal lignin decomposition towards the forest‐steppe biome, while drought and high pH might be responsible for the reduced lignin decomposition in the steppe. We infer that a shift of biomes to the north, driven by climate change, might promote lignin decomposition in the northern parts, whereas in the south a further retardation might be likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range‐wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave—one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture—retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there is mounting concern about how high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) affect ecosystem productivity, their relative importance is still under debate. Here, we comprehensively quantified the relative impacts of these two factors on ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) using observations from a global network of eddy‐covariance towers and two approaches (sensitivity analysis and linear regression model). Both approaches agree that a higher percentage of sites experience GPP reduction from high VPD than from low SM over the growing season. However, the constraint of high VPD and low SM on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional types. Humid and mesic ecosystems including forests and grasslands are dominated by VPD, while the semi‐arid and arid ecosystems including shrublands and savannas are dominated by SM. The varying dominant role of these two factors on GPP is closely related to plant stomatal behavior, as predicted by a stomatal conductance model. Additionally, we highlight the non‐linear impact of SM on GPP during droughts and the possible underestimation of the SM effects for deep‐rooted plants when only using surface‐layer SM. Our results shed light on a better understanding of the impacts of VPD and SM on vegetation productivity, with important implications for modeling the response and feedback of ecosystem dynamics to current and future climates. Plain Language Summary: Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has increased over recent decades and is expected to continue to rise in the future with climate change. Projected changes in precipitation and soil moisture (SM) are more uncertain with higher spatial variability and larger projected intermodel spread. Given the global environmental changes underway, it is of paramount importance to independently assess the effects of high VPD and low SM on ecosystem productivity. Here, we assessed the relative impacts of these two factors on ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) using observations from a global network of eddy‐covariance towers. We find that reductions in GPP are more attributable to high VPD rather than low SM, on average. The constraint of these two factors on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional types. We further emphasize the amplified impact of SM on GPP during droughts and the need to consider using deep SM. Overall, our findings provide a more comprehensive and quantitative attribution of the impact of increasing atmospheric dryness and changes in soil water deficit on ecosystem productivity in a changing climate. Key Points: Reductions in gross primary production (GPP) are more attributable to high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) rather than low soil moisture (SM) across all sitesThe constraint of high VPD and low SM on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional typesOur results highlight that the relative and non‐linear impacts of VPD and SM on GPP should be adequately considered [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating modifications in the hydrological cycle is essential to understand the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. This study assesses the change in the velocity of the water cycle over land at the global scale, whereas previous studies have mostly focused on changes in the atmospheric water cycle. The hydrological acceleration is quantified by a decrease in average residence time (RT) of water in the first meter of soil. The soil water RT is shown to be sensitive to the soil texture and seasonality of hydroclimatic variables. Despite substantial local variability, most of the RTs are in the range of 50–300 days. The global mean soil water RT declined at a rate of −2.30 and −0.36 days decade−1 (−1.6 to 1.0 days decade−1 the range of nine models) from 2001 to 2020 as measured by reanalysis and CMIP6 simulations for the historical scenario, respectively, which corresponds to −6.8 and −1.1 days °C−1 when expressed per degree of global warming over land. This acceleration is projected to continue at a rate of −1.35 days decade−1 (−3.4 to 0.0 days decade−1 the range of nine models) or −2.2 days °C−1 during the period 2015–2100 under the most extreme emission scenario: SSP 585. Changes in precipitation dominantly drive the acceleration of the terrestrial water cycle compared to changes in evapotranspiration. Rising temperatures and increasing carbon dioxide have opposite effects on the speed of the terrestrial water cycle with compensatory roles keeping RT relatively unchanged in the absence of PR trends. Key Points: Several methods to approximate soil water residence time from commonly available hydrological variables are introduced and comparedThe global terrestrial water cycle is currently accelerating and projected to do so in future climate scenariosPrecipitation changes play a more dominant role in the acceleration of the terrestrial water cycle when compared to evapotranspiration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep soil drought represents a low level of deep soil water status that is unsuitable for vegetation growth and transpiration. It can be exacerbated through the excessive water uptake by vegetation during climate droughts, while signs of deep soil drought remain unclear worldwide due to a lack of unified methods and comparative data. In this study, we performed a literature search, focusing on deep soil water profiles (>2 m) and quantification of the degree of deep soil drought as indicated by dried soil layers (DSLs). The results revealed the following: (1) DSLs were distributed worldwide, with mean values of 2.2 ± 0.5 m, 3.3 ± 3.9 m, 14.6% ± 8.3%, and 0.66 ± 0.14 for the formation depth, thickness, soil water content, and quantitative index, respectively; (2) at the global scale, DSLs were more common and more severe under forestland, including shrubland, than under grassland and farmland; (3) DSLs were shaped directly by rooting depth and soil particle composition and indirectly by land use, soil thickness, terrain, and climate. The preliminary investigation of DSL distribution confirms the existence of DSLs globally, something that has not been addressed in previous studies. Our study provides an early warning of DSL formation in association with rooting depth and soil particle composition under an increased drought condition, which in turn harms vegetation production and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The effects of the environment and genotype in the coffee bean chemical composition were studied using nine trials covering an altitudinal gradient [600–1100 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] with three genotypes of Coffea arabica in the northwest mountainous region of Vietnam. The impacts of the climatic conditions on bean physical characteristics and chemical composition were assessed. RESULTS: We showed that the environment had a significant effect on the bean density and on all bean chemical compounds. The environment effect was stronger than the genotype and genotype‐environment interaction effects for cafestol, kahweol, arachidic (C20:0), behenic acid (C22:0), 2,3‐butanediol, 2‐methyl‐2‐buten‐1‐ol, benzaldehyde, benzene ethanol, butyrolactone, decane, dodecane, ethanol, pentanoic acid, and phenylacetaldehyde bean content. A 2 °C increase in temperature had more influence on bean chemical compounds than a 100 mm increase in soil water content. Temperature was positively correlated with lipids and volatile compounds. With an innovative method using iterative moving averages, we showed that correlation of temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and rainfall with lipids and volatiles was higher between the 10th and 20th weeks after flowering highlighting this period as crucial for the synthesis of these chemicals. Genotype specific responses were evidenced and could be considered in future breeding programmes to maintain coffee beverage quality in the midst of climate change. CONCLUSION: This first study of the effect of the genotype–environment interactions on chemical compounds enhances our understanding of the sensitivity of coffee quality to genotype environment interactions during bean development. This work addresses the growing concern of the effect of climate change on speciality crops and more specifically coffee. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation response to soil and atmospheric drought has raised extensively controversy, however, the relative contributions of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and their compound droughts on global vegetation growth remain unclear. Combining the changes in soil moisture (SM), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and vegetation growth (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) during 1982–2015, here we evaluated the trends of these three drought types and quantified their impacts on global NDVI. We found that global VPD has increased 0.22 ± 0.05 kPa·decade−1 during 1982–2015, and this trend was doubled after 1996 (0.32 ± 0.16 kPa·decade−1) than before 1996 (0.16 ± 0.15 kPa·decade−1). Regions with large increase in VPD trend generally accompanied with decreasing trend in SM, leading to a widespread increasing trend in compound droughts across 37.62% land areas. We further found compound droughts dominated the vegetation browning since late 1990s, contributing to a declined NDVI of 64.56%. Earth system models agree with the dominant role of compound droughts on vegetation growth, but their negative magnitudes are considerably underestimated, with half of the observed results (34.48%). Our results provided the evidence of compound droughts‐induced global vegetation browning, highlighting the importance of correctly simulating the ecosystem‐scale response to the under‐appreciated exposure to compound droughts as it will increase with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an active ecological agent in the boreal forest, wildfires have many important impacts on the underlying permafrost. However, investigations of post‐fire changes in the features of ecosystem‐protected permafrost are extremely limited in the patchy permafrost regions, Northeast China. Additionally, the impacts of wildfires on patchy permafrost are complicated in this region. In this paper, based on field surveys and observations, permafrost features and their influencing factors were analyzed in the area burned in 2006. The results showed notably lower soil temperatures in shrub‐wetland (NWH1, unburned and NWH2, light burn) in comparison with those in the birch‐larch forest (NWH3, light burn and NWH4, moderate burn). Changes in shallow ground temperatures (0–4 m in depth) were significant. Mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual maximum soil temperature at the light‐burn NWH2 site were 0.3–5.2°C higher than those of unburned NWH1, but annual minimum soil temperatures, 0.3–2.1°C lower. MASTs at the moderately burned NWH4 were 0.6–1.6°C higher than those at the light‐burn NWH3. The active layer thickness (ALT) was greater at burned sites, and; at the moderately burned site, only seasonal frost was found when 13 years after the burn. The contents of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen were the highest at the unburned NWH1 from 0.0 to 0.4 m in depth, followed by those at the lightly‐burned NWH2 and NWH3, and the lowest at the moderately‐burned NWH4. Climate warming, forest fires, and changing local factors (e.g., soil moisture contents, snow cover, soil texture and drainage conditions) worked together to increase ground temperature and ALT. These research results could provide important scientific basis for the protection of boreal forest and wetlands and the ecosystem‐protected permafrost under a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest soil CO2 efflux (FCO2) is a crucial process in global carbon cycling; however, how FCO2 responds to disturbance regimes in different forest biomes is poorly understood. We quantified the effects of disturbance regimes on FCO2 across boreal, temperate, tropical and Mediterranean forests based on 1240 observations from 380 studies. Globally, climatic perturbations such as elevated CO2 concentration, warming and increased precipitation increase FCO2 by 13% to 25%. FCO2 is increased by forest conversion to grassland and elevated carbon input by forest management practices but reduced by decreased carbon input, fire and acid rain. Disturbance also changes soil temperature and water content, which in turn affect the direction and magnitude of disturbance influences on FCO2. FCO2 is disturbance‐ and biome‐type dependent and such effects should be incorporated into earth system models to improve the projection of the feedback between the terrestrial C cycle and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately project future water availability under a drying climate, it is important to understand how precipitation is partitioned into other terrestrial water balance components, such as fluxes (evaporation, transpiration, runoff) and changes in storage (soil moisture, groundwater). Many studies have reported unexpected large runoff reductions during drought, particularly for multi‐year events, and some studies report a persistent change in partitioning even after the meteorological drought has ended. This study focused on understanding how actual evapotranspiration (AET) and change in subsurface storage (ΔS) respond to climate variability and change, examining Australia's Millennium Drought (MD, 1997–2009). The study initially conducted a catchment‐scale water balance analysis to investigate interactions between ΔS and AET. Then the water balance analysis was extended to regional scale to investigate ΔS using interpolated rainfall and discharge with remotely sensed AET. Lastly, we evaluated conceptual rainfall‐runoff model performance of two commonly used models against these water balance estimates. The evaluation of water‐balance‐derived ΔS against Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) estimates shows a significant multiyear storage decline; however, with different rates. In contrast, AET rates (annualized) remained approximately constant before and during the MD, contrasting with some reports of evapotranspiration enhancement elsewhere. Overall, given AET remained approximately constant, drought‐induced precipitation reductions were partitioned into ΔS and streamflow. The employed conceptual rainfall‐runoff models failed to realistically represent AET during the MD, suggesting the need for improved conceptualization of processes. This study provides useful implications for explaining future hydrological changes if similar AET behavior is observed under a drying climate. Key Points: For a multiyear drought, we investigated the impact of precipitation reductions on water balance fluxes and change in storageActual evapotranspiration was approximately unchanged even under prolonged droughts in a water‐limited regionBecause of this, precipitation reduction during the multiyear drought was partitioned into reductions in streamflow and subsurface storage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The peak growth of plant in summer is an important indicator of the capacity of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and ongoing studies have shown its responses to climate warming as represented in the mean temperature. However, the impacts from the asymmetrical warming, that is, different rates in the changes of daytime (Tmax) and nighttime (Tmin) warming were mostly ignored. Using 60 flux sites (674 site‐year in total) measurements and satellite observations from two independent satellite platforms (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies [1982–2015]; MODIS [2000–2020]) over the Northern Hemisphere (≥30°N), here we show that the peak growth, as represented by both flux‐based maximum primary productivity and the maximum greenness indices (maximum normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index), responded oppositely to daytime and nighttime warming. Tmax−Tmin+ (peak growth showed negative responses to Tmax, but positive responses to Tmin) dominated in most ecosystems and climate types, especially in water‐limited ecosystems, while Tmax+Tmin− (peak growth showed positive responses to Tmax, but negative responses to Tmin) was primarily observed in high latitude regions. These contrasting responses could be explained by the strong association between asymmetric warming and water conditions, including soil moisture, evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration, and the vapor pressure deficit. Our results are therefore important to the understanding of the responses of peak growth to climate change, and consequently a better representation of asymmetrical warming in future ecosystem models by differentiating the contributions between daytime and nighttime warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts and floods are extreme events that have tremendous socioeconomic impact. Many studies have investigated their possible variations under the effects of climate changes, while their intraseasonal‐to‐seasonal characteristics have received less attention. Based on observation‐constrained monthly soil moisture (SM) datasets since 1980, we analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics of global SM at the intraseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales and the associated influencing factors. The results were then used to evaluate the performance of simulations by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. It is found that the frequencies of extreme wet events are slightly higher than those of extreme dry events, but their spatial distributions are similar and are both affected by precipitation variability. Extreme events tend to have longer durations than nonextreme events, and their global mean durations are 4–5 months. Globally, dry events persist longer than wet events. Maximum SM anomalies are strongly affected by earlier precipitation and this effect is stronger in a transitional climate. The onset and peak times of SM anomalies in a year occur most frequently near the peak time of precipitation rather than that of SM. Approximately half of CMIP6 models overestimate the durations of both dry and wet events and approximately one third of models only underestimate wet events durations. Different versions of the same model produce similar event durations. The findings of this study enhance understanding of the intraseasonal‐to‐seasonal variabilities of global droughts and floods and could provide guidance for future study of land–atmosphere interactions and prediction of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests yet models remain poorly parameterized for these ecosystems, hampering predictions of forest‐climate interactions. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model with tropical forest observational data and comparing model predictions to a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying suppresses soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in relatively dry tropical forests but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes during wet‐dry cycles from 2015 to 2022 in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in lower soil moisture optima for respiration than previously modeled. We then parameterized the model using field data and the new moisture‐respiration response functions. The updated model predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes with drying in wetter and fertile forests and suppressed fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment initially suppressed soil respiration across forests, with sustained suppression for four years in the wettest forest only (−28% ± 4% during the dry season). In the fertile forest, drying eventually elevated CO2 fluxes over this period (+75% ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro‐nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest‐climate feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: Tropical forests are predicted to get drier with climate change over much of the globe. These forests hold some of the largest carbon stocks on Earth, so the effects of drying are significant to global climate change. We assessed effects of natural seasonal drying, and a rainfall reduction experiment, on soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., carbon losses via respiration) from four distinct tropical forests in Panama. We found that natural seasonal drying reduced soil CO2 fluxes. Using this data in an ecosystem model, we predicted that future drying will increase soil CO2 fluxes from more fertile and wetter tropical forests, where soils are often water logged, but will decrease soil CO2 fluxes from drier forests, where dry soils already suppress microbial and root activity. In contrast to these predictions, our rainfall reduction experiment showed that drying suppressed soil CO2 fluxes from the wettest forest, suggesting that not all of the important processes were represented in the model. We suggest that ecosystem models could be improved by including rainfall flushing of carbon and nutrients into soils from above, in addition to direct effects of soil moisture on respiration. Representing these processes could alter predictions of how tropical forests will respond to climatic drying. Key Points: Throughfall reduction initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across four tropical forests, but the effects diverged after 4 yearsOptimal soil moisture for soil respiration in these tropical forests was lower than previously parameterized in an ecosystem modelThe model mistakenly projected the highest CO2 fluxes with drying in the wettest forest, possibly missing soil hydro‐nutrient processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of boreal peatlands in permafrost regions will be affected by climate change through disturbances such as permafrost thaw and wildfire. Although the future GHG balance of boreal peatlands including ponds is dominated by the exchange of both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), disturbance impacts on fluxes of the potent GHG nitrous oxide (N2O) could contribute to shifts in the net radiative balance. Here, we measured monthly (April to October) fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 from three sites located across the sporadic and discontinuous permafrost zones of western Canada. Undisturbed permafrost peat plateaus acted as N2O sinks (−0.025 mg N2O m−2 d−1), but N2O uptake was lower from burned plateaus (−0.003 mg N2O m−2 d−1) and higher following permafrost thaw in the thermokarst bogs (−0.054 mg N2O m−2 d−1). The thermokarst bogs had below‐ambient N2O soil gas concentrations, suggesting that denitrification consumed atmospheric N2O during reduction to dinitrogen. Atmospheric uptake of N2O in peat plateaus and thermokarst bogs increased with soil temperature and soil moisture, suggesting sensitivity of N2O consumption to further climate change. Four of five peatland ponds acted as N2O sinks (−0.018 mg N2O m−2 d−1), with no influence of thermokarst expansion. One pond with high nitrate concentrations had high N2O emissions (0.30 mg N2O m−2 d−1). Overall, our study suggests that the future net radiative balance of boreal peatlands will be dominated by impacts of wildfire and permafrost thaw on CH4 and CO2 fluxes, while the influence from N2O is minor. Plain Language Summary: The peatlands in the boreal biome of northwestern Canada have been a sink of the potent greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), and a source of methane (CH4) for many millennia. Now, climate change is transforming these boreal peat landscapes as more severe and frequent wildfires burn the forests and ground ice‐rich permafrost thaws. Wildfires and permafrost thaw alter soil biogeochemical conditions such as soil temperature, soil moisture, and water table depth. The changing conditions have immediate effects on GHG production, transport, and consumption in the soil, which are reasonably well understood for CO2 and CH4 but not for N2O. By measuring soil GHG concentrations at different depths and GHG exchange between soil and atmosphere with static chambers, we showed that N2O exchange from different peat surfaces responded differently depending on the two disturbance types. While burned peatland areas were close to neutral regarding N2O, the wet, thaw‐affected areas showed increased N2O uptake driven by high soil moisture contents, soil temperatures, and below‐atmospheric N2O soil gas concentrations. However, this minor N2O uptake can only offset less than 1% of the global warming potential of CH4 emissions from the thawing peatlands studied here. Key Points: Permafrost peatlands acted as sinks of nitrous oxide; thermokarst and wildfire caused increased and reduced uptake rates, respectivelyUptake of nitrous oxide in peat plateaus and thermokarst bogs increased with soil temperature, suggesting sensitivity to climate warmingImpacts of thermokarst and wildfire on nitrous oxide fluxes were minor compared to methane when expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency and severity of droughts in the Alps are expected to increase due to rising air temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes. Although biomass production in humid mountain areas tends to be energy limited rather than water limited, an increase in droughts may have negative impacts on the water availability and thus agricultural yields. This study aimed to analyse the impacts of dry spells on soil moisture and yield anomalies at a montane permanent grassland site in Austria. Dry spells in the time period from 2018 to 2020 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Soil Moisture Anomaly Index. Data from a lysimeter climate experiment were used to evaluate drought impacts on soil water storage and grassland yield under ambient and manipulated conditions. The results indicated the occurrence of three extreme droughts between 2018 and 2020. Although the studied grassland is generally considered a nonwater‐limited ecosystem, the most extreme drought in summer 2019 caused severe and extreme yield anomalies under ambient and heated conditions. Only mild yield anomalies were observed on plots with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This drought‐mitigating effect was attributed to the water savings enabled by partial stomatal closure under elevated CO2. The shorter dry spells in spring and late summer 2018 led to more diverse effects; mildly to moderately negative yield anomalies were found on the heated plots, whereas the anomalies tended to be less negative or even positive on plots under ambient temperature. In contrast, some time periods without water stress showed positive effects of heating on yield. These findings suggest that drought impacts on a humid montane grassland depend on both water availability and air temperature. Higher air temperature can have positive effects on yield if the ecosystem is energy limited. However, global warming suggests a tendency from energy to water limitation, in which the increased evaporative demand of the atmosphere aggravates soil moisture droughts and thus has potentially negative effects on yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In drylands, water‐limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate‐based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western United States. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new "ecological drought metrics" that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970 to 2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well‐known differences among ecoregions, for example, high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert), whereas fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), the timing of SWA and the timing of CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change globally affects soil microbial community assembly across ecosystems. However, little is known about the impact of warming on the structure of soil microbial communities or underlying mechanisms that shape microbial community composition in subtropical forest ecosystems. To address this gap, we utilized natural variation in temperature via an altitudinal gradient to simulate ecosystem warming. After 6 years, microbial co‐occurrence network complexity increased with warming, and changes in their taxonomic composition were asynchronous, likely due to contrasting community assembly processes. We found that while stochastic processes were drivers of bacterial community composition, warming led to a shift from stochastic to deterministic drivers in dry season. Structural equation modelling highlighted that soil temperature and water content positively influenced soil microbial communities during dry season and negatively during wet season. These results facilitate our understanding of the response of soil microbial communities to climate warming and may improve predictions of ecosystem function of soil microbes in subtropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major‐drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short‐term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short‐term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]