Search

Recent observations suggest that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts basal melting of West Antarctic ice shelves, yet sparse ocean observations limit our understanding of the associated processes. Here we investigate how ENSO events modulate subsurface West Antarctic shelf temperatures using high‐resolution global ocean‐sea ice model simulations. During El Niño, the subsurface shelf warming between 150 m and the shelf bottom can be up to 0.5°C in front of ice shelves. This warming arises from a weaker Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and weaker coastal easterlies that reduce on‐shelf Ekman transport of cold surface waters, enabling enhanced transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the shelf. A largely opposite response occurs during La Niña, with a stronger ASL and stronger Ekman transport that results in less cross‐shelf CDW transport and cooling in the subsurface. These findings have implications for interpreting basal melting on interannual to decadal time‐scales in West Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's dominant year‐to‐year climate variation. The impacts of its two phases, El Niño and La Niña, extend from the tropics to Antarctica through atmospheric waves. Past studies have suggested that West Antarctic ice shelves melt more during El Niño because of warmer ocean waters at the ice shelf bases. However, oceanic changes during El Niño lead to warming on the shelf near the ice which is difficult to isolate. That is because ENSO is only one of many drivers that impact shelf water temperatures. In this work, we simulate isolated ENSO events using an ocean circulation model. We show that during El Niño, the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters in West Antarctica, driven by coastal easterly winds, is reduced because the winds weaken. To balance out this mass deficit at the surface, more warm CDW flows onto the continental shelf below. During La Niña, we see a largely opposite response. Stronger coastal easterlies increase the on‐shelf flow of cold surface waters and less CDW is flowing onto the shelf. Our results show the link between ENSO and mass loss of the West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet. Key Points: Ocean‐sea ice model simulations of El Niño and La Niña events illustrate how they modulate West Antarctic shelf temperaturesEl Niño weakens coastal easterlies, reduces on‐shelf Ekman flow of cold waters, increasing cross‐shelf flow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW)The La Niña shelf circulation response is largely opposite and reduces cross‐shelf transport of warm CDW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local studies show upslope shifts in the distribution of tropical birds in response to warming temperatures. Unanswered is whether these upward shifts occur regionally across many species. We considered a nearly 2000‐km length of the Northern Andes, where deforestation, temperature, and extreme weather events have increased during the past decades. Range‐restricted bird species are particularly vulnerable to such events and occur in exceptionally high numbers in this region. Using abundant crowd‐sourced data from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology database, eBird, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we documented distributions of nearly 200 such species. We examined whether species shifted their elevational ranges over time by comparing observed versus expected occurrences below a low elevational threshold and above a high elevational threshold for 2 periods: before and after 2005. We predicted fewer observations at lower elevations (those below the threshold) and more at upper elevations (those above the threshold) after 2005. We also tested for deforestation effects at lower elevations within each species' distribution ranges. We compared relative forest loss with the differences between observed and expected occurrences across the elevational range. Species' retreats from lower elevations were ubiquitous and involved a 23–40% decline in prevalence at the lowest elevations. Increases at higher elevations were not consistent. The retreats occurred across a broad spectrum of species, from predominantly lowland to predominantly highland. Because deforestation showed no relationship with species retreats, we contend that a warming climate is the most parsimonious explanation for such shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site fidelity and aggregation behaviour were assessed for giant sea bass Stereolepis gigas (GSB) at Santa Barbara Island, California, USA, from 2018 to 2020. Results indicate seasonal variation in GSB presence, and network analyses revealed a preferred location in a spatially constrained pattern, indicative of aggregation behaviour. Results show GSB aggregated annually during spawning months in the same location, confirming the first known aggregation of GSB at Santa Barbara Island. Identifying and monitoring aggregation sites is vital to ensuring proper protection and ultimate recovery for this protected species in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change is impacting the oceans in an unprecedented way, and multiple lines of evidence suggest that species distributions are changing in space and time. There is increasing evidence that multiple environmental stressors act together to constrain species habitat more than expected from warming alone. Here, we conducted a comprehensive study of how temperature and aragonite saturation state act together to limit Limacina helicina, globally distributed pteropods that are ecologically important pelagic calcifiers and an indicator species for ocean change. We co‐validated three different approaches to evaluate the impact of ocean warming and acidification (OWA) on the survival and distribution of this species in the California Current Ecosystem. First, we used colocated physical, chemical, and biological data from three large‐scale west coast cruises and regional time series; second, we conducted multifactorial experimental incubations to evaluate how OWA impacts pteropod survival; and third, we validated the relationships we found against global distributions of pteropods and carbonate chemistry. OWA experimental work revealed mortality increases under OWA, while regional habitat suitability indices and global distributions of L. helicina suggest that a multi‐stressor framework is essential for understanding pteropod distributions. In California Current Ecosystem habitats, where pteropods are living close to their thermal maximum already, additional warming and acidification through unabated fossil fuel emissions (RCP 8.5) are expected to dramatically reduce habitat suitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the carbon footprint analysis for flights was derived from a flight emissions calculator to determine per passenger kilometre emissions factors, the rail footprint analysis for the TtV and MtH lines was derived from emissions factors provided to I VIA i clients and then used to calculate each route's average trip footprint. Keywords: passenger rail; aviation; climate change; carbon footprint; Canada; passagers qui voyage en train; changement climatique; empreinte carbone EN passenger rail aviation climate change carbon footprint Canada FR passagers qui voyage en train changement climatique empreinte carbone 141 151 11 06/23/21 20210601 NES 210601 Introduction Thanks to growing awareness about the high-carbon footprint of aviation, conscientious travellers around the world are opting to either fly less or travel by other more efficient transport modes instead. According to DEFRA, the average emissions factor for international rail is 0.012 kg CO SB 2 sb e/passenger km, meaning that Canadian long-haul rail emissions factors are orders of magnitude worse than the global average. Passenger A was told that their trip on a 1094-km segment of the Ocean route would generate 1053.71 kg CO SB 2 sb e, yielding a GHG emission factor of 0.96 kg CO SB 2 sb e per passenger km. [Extracted from the article]

The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the accumulated heat in the climate system since 1970. As global warming accelerates, understanding ocean heat content changes and tracing these to surface heat input is increasingly important. We introduce a novel framework by organizing the ocean into temperature‐percentiles from warmest to coldest, allowing us to trace ocean temperature changes to changes in surface fluxes and mixing. Applying this framework to observations and historical CMIP6 simulations, we find that 50 ± 6% of surface heat uptake between 1970 and 2014 is confined to isotherms in the coldest 90% of the ocean volume. These isotherms outcrop over only 23% of the ocean's surface area in the sub‐polar regions, implying a disproportionately large heat input per unit area. Additionally, a cooling bias in the CMIP6 models is traced to inaccurate sea surface temperatures and surface heat fluxes into the warmest 5%–20% of the ocean volume. Plain Language Summary: The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the heat that has built up in the climate system since 1970. Understanding the processes which drive this uptake of heat by the ocean is critical to climate projections. Typically, this has required the use of climate and ocean models, which must be validated with ocean observations. To enable this, we introduce a new method, the tracer‐percentile framework, which allows us to directly use observations to understand the processes dictating heat uptake by the ocean. Using climate models (collectively called CMIP6) and ocean observations, we calculate the heat input into layers of water at the ocean surface, the total heat stored in these layers, and the mixing of heat between these layers. We find that the heat input at the surface and heat stored in the ocean has increased between 1970 and 2014, with 50 ± 6% of the increase in heat uptake at the surface happening over about a quarter of the ocean's surface, which connects to 90% of the world's ocean volume. We also identify inaccuracies in the CMIP6 models and trace these problems to the way the surface properties of the ocean (or surface heat input) are represented. Key Points: We introduce a novel tracer‐percentile framework which relates ocean heat content trends to surface flux and turbulent mixing changesHeat content changes in the coldest 90% of the ocean by volume are linked to surface heat fluxes which enter 23% of the ocean's surface areaUsing this framework, we identify a cooling bias in the 5%–20% warmest ocean volume in CMIP6 climate models traced to surface flux biases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is rapidly reshaping Arctic landscapes through shifts in vegetation cover and productivity, soil resource mobilization, and hydrological regimes. The implications of these changes for stream ecosystems and food webs is unclear and will depend largely on microbial biofilm responses to concurrent shifts in temperature, light, and resource supply from land. To study those responses, we used nutrient diffusing substrates to manipulate resource supply to biofilm communities along regional gradients in stream temperature, riparian shading, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loading in Arctic Sweden. We found strong nitrogen (N) limitation across this gradient for gross primary production, community respiration and chlorophyll‐a accumulation. For unamended biofilms, activity and biomass accrual were not closely related to any single physical or chemical driver across this region. However, the magnitude of biofilm response to N addition was: in tundra streams, biofilm response was constrained by thermal regimes, whereas variation in light availability regulated this response in birch and coniferous forest streams. Furthermore, heterotrophic responses to experimental N addition increased across the region with greater stream water concentrations of DOC relative to inorganic N. Thus, future shifts in resource supply to these ecosystems are likely to interact with other concurrent environmental changes to regulate stream productivity. Indeed, our results suggest that in the absence of increased nutrient inputs, Arctic streams will be less sensitive to future changes in other habitat variables such as temperature and DOC loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To examine how the distributions of fishes in three rivers changed over four decades of rising air temperatures. Location Colorado, USA. Methods We used fish sampling over more than four decades in three rivers in Colorado, USA, to examine changes in the upper and lower distribution limits of fishes. Results There was a divergent pattern of range shifts among species. One coldwater fish species showed the expected pattern of retraction at its lower limit and expansion at its upper limit. However, warmwater fishes, on average, did not shift their upper distribution limit. Main conclusions All three rivers displayed a strong habitat transition from upstream, high-gradient reaches to downstream, low-gradient reaches, suggesting that habitat conditions associated with high channel slope may limit the ability of some fish species to track warming water temperatures. In addition, potential anthropogenic barriers to fish movement occurred near species distribution limits, and these may prevent or delay range shifts in river fishes. The overall pattern of range shifts was consistent across the three rivers, suggesting a coherent influence of species' traits, physiological tolerances and habitat requirements on fish species distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By altering fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, forestry and other land-use activities affect climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so-called biogeophysical forcings are rarely included in climate policies for forestry and other land management projects due to the many challenges associated with their quantification. Here, we review the scientific literature in the fields of atmospheric science and terrestrial ecology in light of three main objectives: (i) to elucidate the challenges associated with quantifying biogeophysical climate forcings connected to land use and land management, with a focus on the forestry sector; (ii) to identify and describe scientific approaches and/or metrics facilitating the quantification and interpretation of direct biogeophysical climate forcings; and (iii) to identify and recommend research priorities that can help overcome the challenges of their attribution to specific land-use activities, bridging the knowledge gap between the climate modeling, forest ecology, and resource management communities. We find that ignoring surface biogeophysics may mislead climate mitigation policies, yet existing metrics are unlikely to be sufficient. Successful metrics ought to (i) include both radiative and nonradiative climate forcings; (ii) reconcile disparities between biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings, and (iii) acknowledge trade-offs between global and local climate benefits. We call for more coordinated research among terrestrial ecologists, resource managers, and coupled climate modelers to harmonize datasets, refine analytical techniques, and corroborate and validate metrics that are more amenable to analyses at the scale of an individual site or region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand-level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of −0.13 °C at a deciduous site and −0.25 °C at a clear-cut site were observed over a 6-year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes - despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO2 emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned −8 to −159 Tg- CO2-eq., depending on whether near-term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately −20 to −300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon-only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive - and at best - suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between disturbance and climate change and resultant effects on ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes are poorly understood. Here, we model (using CENTURY version 4.5) how climate change may affect C and N fluxes among mature and regenerating lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Wats.) stands that vary in postfire tree density following stand-replacing fire. Both young (postfire) and mature stands had elevated forest production and net N mineralization under future climate scenarios relative to current climate. Forest production increased 25% [Hadley (HAD)] to 36% [Canadian Climate Center (CCC)], compared with 2% under current climate, among stands that varied in stand age and postfire density. Net N mineralization increased under both climate scenarios, e.g., +19% to 37% (HAD) and +11% to 23% (CCC), with greatest increases for young stands with sparse tree regeneration. By 2100, total ecosystem carbon (live+dead+soils) in mature stands was higher than prefire levels, e.g., +16% to 19% (HAD) and +24% to 28% (CCC). For stands regenerating following fire in 1988, total C storage was 0–9% higher under the CCC climate model, but 5–6% lower under the HAD model and 20–37% lower under the Control. These patterns, which reflect variation in stand age, postfire tree density, and climate model, suggest that although there were strong positive responses of lodgepole pine productivity to future changes in climate, C flux over the next century will reflect complex relationships between climate, age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the - polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite- collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCM5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the Al B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]