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Plants protect themselves against herbivore attacks with physical traits and toxic secondary metabolites. Levels of plant defences and herbivore performance might shift under climate warming, particularly in alpine habitats, where herbivore pressure is currently low. Plant responses to warming should be driven by species‐specific shifts in physical and chemical defence traits.We investigated the association between plant leaf physical and chemical traits and herbivory under current and warmer climates in three grasslands along a subalpine to alpine gradient. Specifically, we measured the rate of in situ natural herbivory, and performed bioassays to measure overall plant species‐level resistance using the extreme generalist non‐native caterpillar Spodoptera littoralis. We simulated warmer conditions by using open‐top chambers and assessed the effect of warming on leaf physical and chemical traits, and how trait changes affect caterpillar performance.Natural herbivory and caterpillar performance were associated with plant physical traits, including specific leaf area, and with ordination axes representing dimensions of the plant chemical profile. We found that the warming treatment independently decreased the number of distinct chemical compounds per species, and marginally increased specific leaf area. Changes in leaf functional traits were not systematically associated with changes in caterpillar performance.Synthesis. Plant physical traits and chemical profiles are both related to natural herbivory and plant resistance against Spodoptera littoralis. While leaf physical and chemical traits of high elevation plants were modified by the warming treatment, these changes did not result in predictable effects on plant resistance against herbivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is expected to modify current ecological conditions sustaining the coexistence of species within cold‐adapted plant communities. It will primarily act upon the existing structure of communities, whose response should depend on the functional differences governing coexistence among alpine species. We postulated that a possible trade‐off between (1) plant growth in response to temperature, (2) plant competition and (3) resistance to herbivory, modulates the rate of plant community turnover under climate change. We reviewed the literature investigating functional traits variability within communities along elevation gradients. Despite environmental filtering, our review indicates that interspecific plant functional variation within communities does not necessarily decrease with elevation. While the diversity of traits related to abiotic affinities or competition are well documented, the variability in species resistance to herbivory within communities is poorly known. Using a Lotka–Volterra‐based model, we simulated the impact of climate change on plant communities through (1) a direct effect on plant growth and competition and (2) an indirect effect via an increase in herbivore pressure. We showed that different shapes of trade‐offs between temperature‐related growth, competition and resistance to herbivory modulate community turnover under climate change. We documented the existence of two independent trade‐offs axes using a detailed dataset of functional traits within two alpine grasslands in the European Alps. Plant competitive traits (i.e. leaf area and height) where negatively associated to cold tolerance, whereas traits of the leaf economic spectrum were associated to traits related to the physical resistance to herbivory. We propose that the immediate effect of climate change on alpine plant communities will depend on existing functional variability and how functional axes trade‐off with each other. Documenting ecological constraints between plant functional axes should provide indications to anticipate winners and losers in alpine plant communities. A plain language summary is available for this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single‐species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: The importance of quantifying the contribution of historical processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns is now recognized, but quantitative approaches that explicitly link speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to palaeo‐environmental changes are currently lacking. Here, we propose a spatial diversification model of lineages through time (SPLIT) based on the reconstruction of palaeo‐environments. We illustrate our approach using mangroves as a case study and evaluate whether habitat changes caused by plate tectonics explain the current biodiversity patterns of this group. Innovations: The SPLIT model allows one to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of species ranges by spatially linking speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to habitat changes over geological time periods. The SPLIT model provides a mechanistic expectation of speciation and extinction assuming that species are ecologically identical and not interacting. The likelihood of speciation and extinction is equivalent across species and depends on two dispersal parameters interacting with habitat dynamics (d a maximum dispersal distance and ds a distance threshold beyond which gene flow is absent). Beyond classical correlative approaches, this model tracks biodiversity dynamics under palaeo‐environmental changes and provides multiple expectations (i.e., α‐, β‐diversity, phylogenies) that can be compared to empirical patterns. Main conclusions: The SPLIT model allows a better understanding of the origin of biodiversity by explicitly accounting for habitat changes over geological times. The simulations applied to the mangrove case study reproduced the observed longitudinal gradient in species richness, the empirical pattern of β‐diversity and also provided inference on diversification rates. Future developments may include niche evolution and species interactions to evaluate the importance of non‐neutral mechanisms. The method is fully implemented in the InsideDNA platform for bioinformatics analyses, and all modelling results can be accessed via interactive web links. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species currently track suitable abiotic and biotic conditions under ongoing climate change. Adjustments of trophic interactions may provide a mechanism for population persistence, an option that is rarely included in model projections. Here, we model the future distribution, of butterflies in the western Alps of Switzerland under climate change, simulating potential diet expansion resulting from adaptive behavior or new host opportunities. We projected the distribution of 60 butterfly and 298 plant species with species distribution models (SDMs) under three climate change scenarios. From known host plants, we allowed a potential diet expansion based on phylogenetic constraints. We assessed whether diet expansion could reduce the rate of expected regional species extinction under climate change. We found that the risk of species extinctions decreased with a concave upward decreasing shape when expanding the host plant range. A diet expansion to even a few phylogenetically closely related host plants would significantly decrease extinction rates. Yet, even when considering expansion toward all plant species available in the study area, the overall regional extinction risk would remain high. Ecological or evolutionary shifts to new host plants may attenuate extinction risk, but the severe decline of suitable abiotic conditions is still expected to drive many species to local extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high‐resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open‐access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse‐gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub‐canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate‐change‐related impacts on forest‐floor biodiversity and functioning, high‐resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near‐surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub‐canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free‐air temperature over the period 2000–2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub‐canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free‐air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high‐resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub‐canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below‐canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock farmers rely on a high and stable grassland productivity for fodder production to sustain their livelihoods. Future drought events related to climate change, however, threaten grassland functionality in many regions across the globe. The introduction of sustainable grassland management could buffer these negative effects. According to the biodiversity–productivity hypothesis, productivity positively associates with local biodiversity. The biodiversity–insurance hypothesis states that higher biodiversity enhances the temporal stability of productivity. To date, these hypotheses have mostly been tested through experimental studies under restricted environmental conditions, hereby neglecting climatic variations at a landscape‐scale. Here, we provide a landscape‐scale assessment of the contribution of species richness, functional composition, temperature, and precipitation on grassland productivity. We found that the variation in grassland productivity during the growing season was best explained by functional trait composition. The community mean of plant preference for nutrients explained 24.8% of the variation in productivity and the community mean of specific leaf area explained 18.6%, while species richness explained only 2.4%. Temperature and precipitation explained an additional 22.1% of the variation in productivity. Our results indicate that functional trait composition is an important predictor of landscape‐scale grassland productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs and their associated fauna are largely impacted by ongoing climate change. Unravelling species responses to past climatic variations might provide clues on the consequence of ongoing changes. Here, we tested the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and sea levels during the Quaternary and present-day distributions of coral reef fish species. We investigated whether species-specific responses are associated with life-history traits. We collected a database of coral reef fish distribution together with life-history traits for the Indo-Pacific Ocean. We ran species distribution models ( SDMs) on 3,725 tropical reef fish species using contemporary environmental factors together with a variable describing isolation from stable coral reef areas during the Quaternary. We quantified the variance explained independently by isolation from stable areas in the SDMs and related it to a set of species traits including body size and mobility. The variance purely explained by isolation from stable coral reef areas on the distribution of extant coral reef fish species largely varied across species. We observed a triangular relationship between the contribution of isolation from stable areas in the SDMs and body size. Species, whose distribution is more associated with historical changes, occurred predominantly in the Indo-Australian archipelago, where the mean size of fish assemblages is the lowest. Our results suggest that the legacy of habitat changes of the Quaternary is still detectable in the extant distribution of many fish species, especially those with small body size and the most sedentary. Because they were the least able to colonize distant habitats in the past, fish species with smaller body size might have the most pronounced lags in tracking ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. Location The circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. Methods We estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold-adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid-Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species-specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life-history traits. Results We found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect-pollinated species than wind-pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusion The relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000 km−1. In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]