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Aim To explore the recent (past ~1,000 year) migration history of yellow-cedar ( Callitropsis nootkatensis), a climate-threatened tree, which appears to lag behind its potential climatic niche at a leading northern range edge, and infer its continued migration potential under changing climate. Location Southeast Alaska, USA. Methods We located 11 leading range edge yellow-cedar stands near Juneau, Alaska, determined their proportional occupancy of modelled habitat and estimated stand ages to determine approximate time of establishment. We used future climate projections to determine the potential vulnerability of these leading edge populations using a well-established risk factor for yellow-cedar mortality in the region. Results Despite abundant potential habitat, and having existed in the study area > 675 years, yellow-cedar has only occupied a small proportion (<0.8%) of suitable habitat. Yellow-cedar appears to have undergone a past pulse of successful regeneration and establishment during the Little Ice Age climate period, with little expansion in recent decades. Under high emissions future climate scenarios, nine of 11 stands (82%) may become exposed to climate conditions that predispose yellow-cedar to root freezing injury by 2070. Main conclusions We show that yellow-cedar's migration near a northern range edge is episodic, with a past pulse of establishment during the Little Ice Age. When planning for the conservation and management of this culturally and economically valuable tree, forest managers should consider yellow-cedar's currently limited migration at the leading edge, mortality emerging farther north in recent decades and potential vulnerability of range edge stands by 2070. The range of intense, climatic driven yellow-cedar mortality is expanding northward and rapidly approaching the species' leading edge in southeast Alaska. Yellow-cedar's episodic migration demonstrates that species may not respond linearly to a warming climate and that other factors controlling dispersal to suitable habitat must be considered for accurate range predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species' geographic range limits interest biologists and resource managers alike; however, scientists lack strong mechanistic understanding of the factors that set geographic range limits in the field, especially for animals. There exists a clear need for detailed case studies that link mechanisms to spatial dynamics and boundaries because such mechanisms allow us to predict whether climate change is likely to change a species' geographic range and, if so, how abundance in marginal populations compares to the core. The bagworm Thyridopteryx ephemeraeformis (Lepidoptera: Psychidae) is a major native pest of cedars, arborvitae, junipers, and other landscape trees throughout much of North America. Across dozens of bagworm populations spread over six degrees of latitude in the American Midwest we find latitudinal declines in fecundity and egg and pupal survivorship as one proceeds toward the northern range boundary. A spatial gradient of bagworm reproductive success emerges, which is associated with a progressive decline in local abundance and an increase in the risk of local population extinction near the species' geographic range boundary. We developed a mathematical model, completely constrained by empirically estimated parameters, to explore the relative roles of reproductive asynchrony and stage-specific survivorship in generating the range limit for this species. We find that overwinter egg mortality is the biggest constraint on bagworm persistence beyond their northern range limit. Overwinter egg mortality is directly related to winter temperatures that fall below the bagworm eggs' physiological limit. This threshold, in conjunction with latitudinal declines in fecundity and pupal survivorship, creates a nonlinear response to climate extremes that sets the geographic boundary and provides a path for predicting northward range expansion under altered climate conditions. Our mechanistic modeling approach demonstrates how species' sensitivity to climate extremes can create population tipping points not reflected in demographic responses to climate means, a distinction that is critical to successful ecological forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To investigate the impact of past environmental changes on Cedrus atlantica and its current genetic diversity, and to predict its future distribution. Location Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Methods Eleven fossil pollen records from these three countries were used to locate putative glacial refugia and to reconstruct past climate changes. A mechanistic vegetation distribution model was used to simulate the distribution of C. atlantica in the year 2100. In addition, a genetic survey was carried out on modern Moroccan C. atlantica. Results Pollen records indicate that Cedrus was present during the last glacial period, probably in scattered refugia, in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. In the Tunisian and Algerian sites, cedar expanded during the late glacial and the early Holocene, then disappeared after c. 8000 yr bp. Reconstructed mean annual precipitation and January temperature show that the last glacial period in Morocco was cooler by 10–15°C and drier by c. 300–400 mm year−1 than the climate today. Modern chloroplast microsatellites of 15 C. atlantica populations in Morocco confirm the presence of multiple refugia and indicate that cedar recolonized the Moroccan mountains fairly recently. Model simulation indicates that by the year 2100 the potential distribution of C. atlantica will be much restricted with a potential survival area located in the High Atlas. Main conclusions Environmental changes in northern Africa since the last glacial period have had an impact on the geographical distribution of C. atlantica and on its modern genetic diversity. It is possible that by the end of this century C. atlantica may be unable to survive in its present-day locations. To preserve the species, we suggest that seedlings from modern C. atlantica populations located in the High Atlas mountains, where a high genetic diversity is found, be transplanted into the western High Atlas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been hypothesized that yellow-cedar [ Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D. Don) Spach] decline may result from root freezing injury following climate change-induced reductions in protective snow cover. To test this hypothesis, we measured the freezing tolerance and injury expression of yellow-cedar seedlings in three treatments that differed in the insulative protection they provided to soils during winter and spring: (1) full exposure to ambient temperatures (exposed treatment), (2) continuous protection from ambient temperatures via addition of perlite over pots (full protection), and (3) perlite protection only during winter and exposure to ambient temperatures during spring (partial protection). Foliage from all treatments was cold tolerant enough to prevent foliar freezing injury throughout the study period. However, on all sample dates, roots of seedlings from all treatments were only tolerant to about −5 °C – a level considerably warmer than the reported maximum cold tolerance for the species and well above the soil temperature recorded in the exposed treatment. As a result of this limited root cold tolerance, visibly uninjured roots of seedlings from the exposed treatment had significantly higher relative electrolyte leakage (REL) throughout the winter and early spring than seedlings in soil protection treatments. Seedlings from the exposed treatment also had significantly higher foliar REL values and greater visual foliar injury than seedlings from the other treatments starting in early spring. For both roots and foliage, REL measurements consistently detected tissue damage before visual injury was evident. Patterns of injury from both REL and visual injury assessments showed the same pattern: damage began with freezing injury to roots and subsequently became evident as foliar browning after spring temperatures increased. All seedlings in the exposed treatment eventually had 100% fine root damage and died. This progression of initial root damage followed by foliar browning and mortality after the onset of warming conditions is consistent with reports of yellow-cedar decline symptom development in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study examined the effects of snowfall on the beginning day of Cryptomeria japonica pollen release and predicted it under global climate change. We used a statistical method in order to investigate when the pollen release would start and how much sooner it would be, by using data on predicted meteorological conditions under global warming in Yamagata City, Japan. Estimation accuracy was improved by multiple regression by using the mean air temperature from January to February and snowfall depth in February. Adding snowfall depth yielded more accurate estimates of the beginning day of pollen release than using air temperature alone. It is possible that the effects of heat insulation and cooling by snow delay the flowering day. Under the predicted global climate change, we expect the beginning day of pollen release to become earlier in Yamagata City. The date would be 8 February in approximately 100 years, compared with 20 February at the earliest now. Eighty years from now the date could be earlier than any date recorded so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]