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Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected peryear will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the southeast of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pitt Review of the 2007 summer floods in the UK, published in 2008, commended the potential of natural flood management (NFM) for reducing flood risk. NFM is a nature‐based approach that has since gained substantial interest from both practitioners and academics. The review further highlighted the need for catchment‐based flood management (CBFM) to enhance resilience to flooding and climate change by incorporating NFM and wider nature‐based solutions into hard flood protection systems. Such integrated approaches are considered to be more sustainable and adaptable than the traditional hard‐engineered measures. More recently, the European Commission's European Green Deal also highlighted the need for greater use of nature‐based solutions including NFM for managing flood risk. Whilst there have been many attempts to quantify the effects of NFM through hydraulic and hydrological modelling, there is still no systematic review conducted for these modelling works. This review aims to summarise the current NFM modelling approaches, as well as discussing their key limitations related to data, model methods, and real‐world applications. This paper then goes further to highlight potential solutions to some of these challenges and provides guidance to assist modellers to improve future modelling and data collection process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: Veterinarians occupy a unique position at the animal–human–environment interface and could play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and other environmental impacts of human activities. Objectives: The objective of this study was to survey the opinions of equine veterinary teams in the UK regarding the importance of sustainability issues, and current practices employed to promote sustainability. Study design: Online survey. Methods: The survey was distributed through various email veterinary listservs and social media sites, and was open to equine veterinary surgeons, veterinary nurses, veterinary students and practice administrators/managers. Results: A total of 374 responses were received. Seventy‐seven per cent of respondents considered sustainability issues to be extremely important or very important, but only 13% felt knowledgeable/well‐informed about practical ways of promoting sustainability in equine veterinary practice. Fifty‐six per cent of respondents stated that their organisations/practices had not introduced sustainability protocols. Over 50% of respondents considered that their organisations were dealing well with the issues of antimicrobial stewardship, anthelmintic stewardship and drug disposal, but less than 25% considered that their organisations were dealing well with fossil fuels, travel, disposable materials, responsible paper sourcing, water saving and communicating sustainability issues. Main limitations: Potential selection bias and response bias. Conclusions: Sustainability issues are considered important by the majority of equine veterinary practice teams in the UK, but there is a widespread lack of knowledge about practical ways of promoting sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permaculture is a growing but little researched phenomenon emphasising care for the environment, equity, fair treatment of people and working with—and not against—nature. It thus represents a potential alternative to business as usual, capable of addressing fundamental challenges posed by human‐made climate change. The paper examines a previously ignored site of entrepreneurship by taking a practice perspective, exploring connections between the practice and growth of permaculture and institutional entrepreneurship. It assesses practice‐related and institutional factors affecting the start‐up and operation of permaculture enterprises in the United Kingdom. The study maps and surveys UK Permaculture Association members who have started up their own business and reports on qualitative data from personal interviews with twenty of them. Data analysis employs NVivo software and involves thematic analysis pertaining to the practice, institutional biographies and institutional portfolios of permaculture entrepreneurs. The findings show the importance of permaculture activists' institutional biographies and institutional portfolios to the start‐up and operation of permaculture enterprises and for shaping permaculture‐related practice. The contribution of the paper lies in how it balances attention to individual agency with subfield‐specific, organisational field and macrosocial factors in understanding 'beyond profit' entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the approach taken to develop the United Kingdom's first community Earth system model, UKESM1. This is a joint effort involving the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), representing the U.K. academic community. We document our model development procedure and the subsequent U.K. submission to CMIP6, based on a traceable hierarchy of coupled physical and Earth system models. UKESM1 builds on the well‐established, world‐leading HadGEM models of the physical climate system and incorporates cutting‐edge new representations of aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial carbon, and nitrogen cycles and an advanced model of ocean biogeochemistry. A high‐level metric of overall performance shows that both models, HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1, perform better than most other CMIP6 models so far submitted for a broad range of variables. We point to much more extensive evaluation performed in other papers in this special issue. The merits of not using any forced climate change simulations within our model development process are discussed. First results from HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 include the emergent climate sensitivity (5.5 and 5.4 K, respectively) which is high relative to the current range of CMIP5 models. The role of cloud microphysics and cloud‐aerosol interactions in driving the climate sensitivity, and the systematic approach taken to understand this role, is highlighted in other papers in this special issue. We place our findings within the broader modeling landscape indicating how our understanding of key processes driving higher sensitivity in the two U.K. models seems to align with results from a number of other CMIP6 models. Plain Language Summary: The United Kingdom has taken a community approach to model development and delivery of simulations to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The papers in this special issue characterize and evaluate the U.K. models and highlight emerging properties of the models, such as the climate sensitivity. Understanding of the reasons for an increase in sensitivity in these new models is highlighted here, and similarities to our findings from other modeling centers are discussed. Key Points: The United Kingdom has developed its first community Earth system model and delivered a traceable hierarchy of models to CMIP6We applied a process‐based evaluation strategy in model development but chose not to use historic trends or measures of climate responseThe U.K. models exhibit higher climate sensitivity than seen in CMIP5 arising in part from more positive cloud feedbacks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes the strategy and components that have been put in place to build the UK's research and industrial base in Engineering Biology. The initial section of the paper provides a brief historical overview of the development of the field in the United Kingdom. This comprised, principally, a major report by the Royal Academy of Engineering and a strategic roadmap for synthetic biology, together with the establishment of six new synthetic biology research centres, a national centre for the industrial translation of synthetic biology and five biofoundries. The next section of the paper describes the UK government's policy for the field. Important elements of the implementation of the policy comprises people, Infrastructure, Business Environment and place. In this context, a number of important areas are addressed—including industrial translation; building an expert workforce and nucleating, incubating and accelerating a new engineering biology industry in the United Kingdom. The final portion of the paper addresses the author's view of the way forward. This comprises placing the development of the field, both nationally and internationally, in the context of the development of the Bioeconomy and Climate Change. The final section of the text addresses a specific strategic approach and the implications for the United Kingdom in relation to the development of its industrial base in Engineering Biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September 2019, the U.K. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee warned that the United Kingdom's food supply was vulnerable to climate change. Within the U.K. food retailing is highly concentrated with the four leading food retailers accounting for almost 70% of all food sales. In the face of the threat of climate change to food supplies, a focus on resilience might be seen to have much to offer retailers. However, little work has been published in the academic literature on if, and how, retailers are employing the concept of resilience in their business plans. With these thoughts in mind, this commentary paper provides an exploratory review of how the United Kingdom's four leading food retailers, namely Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, and Morrisons, have publicly acknowledged the importance of resilience in the face of climate change. The paper outlines definitions of resilience and retail resilience, draws out four general themes within the U.K. food retailers' resilience plans, and offers some wider reflections on the retailers' resilience plans in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity and uncertainty of climate change pose unique challenges to the development of corporate adaptation strategies. Climate adaptation requires organizations to rely on sensemaking to understand climate events, implications for their operations, and develop a response. Organizational heuristics can support sensemaking by simplifying decisions and reducing cognitive effort but also hinder it by creating bias and errors that lead to inefficient decisions. This paper analyzes how firms use organizational heuristics when making decisions on climate change by empirically investigating the adaptation responses of key infrastructure providers in the United Kingdom. Looking at selection, prioritization, procedural, and temporal heuristics, we examine how firms make sense of climate events and develop their responses accordingly. The analysis shows that while these rules‐of‐thumb are sensible in some instances, they can create biases, too, that may deflect responsibility or create a false sense of security leading to inefficient adaptation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on a quantitative study of prioritisation of biodiversity amongst small‐ to medium‐sized enterprise (SME) leaders. Existing research indicates that value orientation impacts propensity for pro‐environmental behaviours. However, as biodiversity loss remains inadequately addressed, this study employs the value‐belief‐norm framework to explore how leaders with strong biospheric and altruistic (collectively termed 'bigger‐than‐self') value orientations perceive their responsibility for biodiversity loss in comparison with climate change and, using an adaptation of the Global Reporting Initiative standards, how biodiversity is prioritised against other areas of environmental sustainability in their businesses. Surveying 61 SME leaders, primarily in the South‐West UK, it was found that biodiversity is often considered of low priority compared with factors such as energy, waste, materials and emissions. Analysis also indicates that these leaders feel less responsibility for biodiversity than for climate change demonstrating that, even where bigger‐than‐self values dominate, there is a need for higher prioritisation of biodiversity amongst SMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood events are the most commonly occurring natural disaster, with over 5 million properties at risk in the UK alone. Changes in the global climate are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flood events. Flood hazard assessments, using climate projections as input, guide policy decisions and engineering projects to reduce the impact of large return period events. Probabilistic flood modeling is required to take into account uncertainties in climate model projections. However, the dichotomous relationship between probabilistic modeling, computational cost and model resolution limits the applicability of such techniques. This paper examines improvements to traditional Monte Carlo methods using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and Multi‐level Monte Carlo (MLMC) to quantify the uncertainty in flood extent resulting from input hydrograph uncertainty. The results demonstrate that MLMC is a more efficient modeling strategy than current methods (i.e., traditional Monte Carlo) with high resolution outputs produced in less time than previously possible. The novel application of MLMC technique to three Scottish case studies, demonstrating a variety of river characteristics, domain sizes and computational costs, using a high resolution 5 m grid resulted in a 99.2% reduction in computational cost compared to traditional Monte Carlo methods and up to 2.3 times speedup over Latin Hypercube Sampling. Key Points: Multi‐level Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the computational cost by 99.2% over traditional full Monte Carlo; tested across a range of case studiesProbabilistic flood hazard assessment accuracy can be increased by incorporating higher resolution models with minimal increase in costsMLMC allows realistic uncertainty quantification at previously unfeasible 5 m grid resolution, yielding converged estimates of flooded area [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising resource‐use efficiency, productivity and environmental sustainability are all fundamental requirements to raise global food production by ~70 per cent in order to feed a world population of ~9.7 billion people by 2050. Perhaps the most vital resource within our capacity to achieve this goal is our soil. Broadly, the fundamental question concerns whether or not satisfying this production demand will accelerate soil degradation, climate change, and the loss of soil carbon stocks. This paper builds upon the outputs of the UK Charity 'Food & Farming Futures' (chaired by Lord Curry of Kirkharle) virtual workshop held on 23 March 2021, entitled 'Capturing the Potential of Soil'. The event focussed on the link between soil health, primarily soil organic carbon (SOC), and agricultural productivity. Supported with commentaries by Professor Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen and Science Director of the Scottish Climate Change Centre of Expertise) and Professor Steve McGrath (Head of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences at Rothamsted Research), specific focus will be given to the research challenges within the UK's ability to improve soil health and functionality, the implementation priorities that must be held in order to improve soil management by 2050 and what the potential co‐benefits could be. These co‐benefits were scattered across environmental, economic, social and political issues, yet they may be summarised into six primary co‐benefits: developing natural capital, climate change mitigation, carbon trading, improvements in crop yield, animal performance and human health (nutrition). Additionally, the main barriers to improved soil management practices are centred on knowledge exchange‐regarding agri‐environmental techniques—whilst the most impactful solutions rely on soil monitoring, reporting and verification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food systems are significant sources of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Since emission intensity varies greatly between different foods, changing food choices towards those with lower GHGE could make an important contribution to mitigating climate change. Public engagement events offer an opportunity to communicate these multifaceted issues and raise awareness about the climate change impact of food choices. An interdisciplinary team of researchers was preparing food and climate change educational activities for summer 2020. However, the COVID‐19 pandemic and lockdown disrupted these plans. In this paper, we report on shifting these events online over the month of June 2020. We discuss what we did and the reception to our online programme. We then reflect on and highlight issues that arose. These relate to: (1) the power dynamics of children, diet and climate change; (2) mental health, diet and COVID‐19; (3) engaging the wider science, agriculture and food communities; (4) the benefits of being unfunded and the homemade nature of this programme; (5) the food system, STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics) and diversity; and (6) how our work fits into our ongoing journey of food and climate change education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the spatial variation of area‐orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR), represented by well‐fitted generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, over the last century in Great Britain (GB) and Australia (AU) with respect to three spatial properties: geographic locations, sizes, and shapes of the region‐of‐interest (ROI). The results show that the spatial variation of GEV location‐scale parameters is dominated by geographic locations and area sizes. In GB, there is an eastward‐decreasing banded pattern compared with a concentrically increasing pattern from the middle to coasts in AU. The parameters tend to decrease with increased area sizes in both studied regions. Although the impact of the ROI shapes is insignificant, the round‐shaped regions usually have higher‐valued parameters than the elongated ones. These findings provide a new perspective to understand the heterogeneity of extreme rainfall distribution over space driven by the complex interactions between climate, geographical features, and the practical sampling approaches. Key Points: Rainfall series are extracted and processed from more than 11,000 regions of interest over the last 100 years in Great Britain and Australia.Spatial distribution of extreme rainfall modeled qualitatively and quantitatively shows impact from location, size, and shape of regions.Methods and findings provide new perspectives for understanding the heterogeneous nature of climate variability and climatic change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter ( Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659-671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature-related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better-fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against an academic and policy backdrop of interest in (and concerns about) the issue, this paper draws on a range of academic writing in various disciplines to explore visual strategies of climate change communication. The geographic scope of the investigation is the United Kingdom, with particular attention to recognizable icons of climate change in UK media and the images used in political campaigns. The paper is in two parts. The first part concentrates on various efforts to put a 'face' on the climate change issue, while part two suggests that weather and renewable energy are the dominant alternative motifs. The paper draws a basic distinction between fear-laden representations of climate change and a variety of visual efforts to use so-called inspirational imagery. All of the images reviewed suggest an affirmative answer to the question in the title, there are multiple efforts underway to move beyond polar bears and represent climate change in more creative and meaningful ways. The bigger question addressed is one raised already by photographers as well as academics, i.e. whether documentary photography (rather than particular types of images) is the more fundamental issue. The answer in the paper is that photographs are no different from other visual images in their capacity to draw attention to messages. The challenge is to use visuals creatively, in ways that prompt positive engagement with climate change without enhancing public disengagement and fatalism. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the iconography of climate change in contemporary climate action campaigns in the UK. I aim to show how sample images are simultaneously scientific denotations of global warming and cultural connotations of danger and vulnerability. I further demonstrate that while similar images are associated with different agendas and geographical visions, they attach to a shared discourse of vulnerability that has Western (colonial) roots. The paper concludes with an overview of possible ways for climate action campaigns to effectively convey their political messages without recycling colonial visions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk management is a new and evolving area and many decisions are likely to be affected by climate risks over the long-form. This paper presents a decision-making framework designed for managing climate alongside non-climate risk factors. The framework describes a process that should help identify and manage these risks. It can be used to help decision-makers answer questions about whether adaptation is required, and, if so, which measures should be implemented. Adaptive management is recommended as a useful approach for dealing with climate and other uncertainties. This paper describes an application of the framework to a wafer resources case study. Feedback from training workshops based on four different case studies suggests the framework provides of minimum a useful (post-hoc) decision analysis tool. Potential users, who include planners, consultants and policy-makers have been largely positive about the prospective utility of the framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As part of their annual directors' report, UK‐listed companies are now required to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and account publicly for their contributions to climate change. This paper uses this mandatory carbon reporting to explore wider debates about corporate social responsibility and the purpose, practice, and impacts of such non‐financial reporting. Empirically, it combines documentary analysis of the carbon reporting practices of 176 large firms listed in the FTSE100 and/or subject to the UK government's adaptation reporting power with 60 interviews with stakeholders involved in carbon reporting. Firms disclose their emissions in response to financial incentives, social pressure and/or regulatory compulsion. In turn, rationales shape whether and how carbon reporting influences internal business processes and performance. The importance of reporting to the bottom line varies by sector depending on two variables – energy intensity and economic regulator status – yet there is limited evidence that carbon reporting is driving substantial reductions in emissions. Findings suggest reasons for caution about hopes for ‘nudging’ firms to improve their environmental performance and social responsibility through disclosure requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper considers the debate around energy policy and government regulation in the UK, considering Helm's idea that the current period can be conceptualized as a distinct ideological paradigm in the same way that both nationalization and privatization were enmeshed within particular political and economic goals. As he reasons, the first paradigm was based on nationalization and had the purpose of bringing vital services under public ownership and the second paradigm was constructed around the premises of liberalization and privatization. Drawing on the work of Mitchell, the paper explores Helm's observations on the link between 'paradigms and policy' to suggest that the failings of a market-based approach to addressing climate change and energy security argue that a more radical shift in direction and thinking is needed. In particular, it is argued that the UK Government's more recent targets on reducing carbon emissions suggest the need for an energy policy agenda that is more clearly de-linked from the current emphasis on market solutions and associated political thinking. It is argued that such a transition in policy would need to revolve around Kuhn's pre-conditions of a 'gestalt switch' - as indicated in both previous UK regulatory approaches to energy. We suggest that, in much the same way as the dominant scientific consensus structured Kuhn's original conception of a paradigm, such a shift in policy will involve a 'gestalt switch', and a politically led shift away from the influence of thinking which currently remains rooted in previous infrastructural and ideological legacies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to growing consensus among scientists and governments to act fast to avoid dangerous impacts of climate change, many industries have started to prepare for a carbon-constrained world. However, this response is far from being uniform. Often action is predicated on economic, technological, organizational and institutional drivers and barriers, which vary between countries and across industrial sectors. In order to understand the effectiveness of industry response, it is therefore important to analyse corporate response across different sectors in different countries. Focusing on the nine most energy-intensive and greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting industrial sectors, this paper compares corporate responses to climate change in Pakistan and the UK. By analysing the divergence of strategies adopted by industries across different sectors in two countries, the paper examines the key factors influencing corporate adoption and implementation of GHG reduction and energy-efficiency strategies in Pakistan and the UK. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport sector is consistently responsible for around 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions in developed countries and is one of few sectors where emissions continue to increase as a result of apparently insatiable demand for road and air travel. This paper examines how the formulation of transport policy fits into the exposition of UK climate policy, focusing on three principal areas of tension: policy priority (congestion and carbon reduction); strategies to reduce emissions (technological and behavioural solutions) and timescale (short- and long-term vision). We suggest that in overcoming such tensions government ministers will need to devolve significant policy formulation and implementation powers to an appropriate scale of governance – in this case the city-region – to fashion a ‘convergence space’ capable of promoting meaningful action with regard to transport's climate impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there is very strong evidence for an advance in the spring arrival dates of migrating birds, there are few data with which to examine the changes, if any, in the dates of winter migration. In this paper we examine data on the first arrivals and last departures of winter visitors from two UK county bird reports. A small number of changes in phenology and some relationships with climatic variables were present. However, results were often contradictory or inconclusive. As data such as these are highly variable we recommend a more thorough examination for climatic impact where records exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty-first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land-use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30-40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen-dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer-term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty-first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth-nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood-rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty-first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National governments are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of their soil resources and are shaping strategies accordingly. Implicit in any such strategy is that degradation threats and their potential effect on important soil properties and functions are defined and understood. In this paper, we aimed to review the principal degradation threats on important soil properties in the UK, seeking quantitative data where possible. Soil erosion results in the removal of important topsoil and, with it, nutrients, C and porosity. A decline in soil organic matter principally affects soil biological and microbiological properties, but also impacts on soil physical properties because of the link with soil structure. Soil contamination affects soil chemical properties, affecting nutrient availability and degrading microbial properties, whilst soil compaction degrades the soil pore network. Soil sealing removes the link between the soil and most of the 'spheres', significantly affecting hydrological and microbial functions, and soils on re-developed brownfield sites are typically degraded in most soil properties. Having synthesized the literature on the impact on soil properties, we discuss potential subsequent impacts on the important soil functions, including food and fibre production, storage of water and C, support for biodiversity, and protection of cultural and archaeological heritage. Looking forward, we suggest a twin approach of field-based monitoring supported by controlled laboratory experimentation to improve our mechanistic understanding of soils. This would enable us to better predict future impacts of degradation processes, including climate change, on soil properties and functions so that we may manage soil resources sustainably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents life cycle environmental impacts of UK shale gas used for electricity generation, in comparison with other fossil, nuclear and renewable options. Per kWh of electricity generated, shale gas has higher environmental impacts than the other options, except for coal. Thus, if it were to replace coal, most impacts would be reduced, including the global warming potential (GWP; by 2.3 times). However, if it were to compete with nuclear or some renewables most impacts would rise, with the GWP increasing by 5-123 times. Within a future UK electricity mix up to 2030, shale gas would make little difference to the environmental impacts of electricity generation, including the GWP, even for the most optimistic assumptions for its domestic production. This suggests that, in the medium term, shale gas cannot help towards meeting UK climate change targets and that certain renewables and nuclear power should be prioritized instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential impacts of climate change are an increasing focus of research, and ever-larger climate projection ensembles are available, making standard impact assessments more onerous. An alternative way of estimating impacts involves response surfaces, which present the change in a given indicator for a large number of plausible climatic changes defined on a regular sensitivity domain. Sets of climate change projections can then be overlaid on the response surface and impacts estimated from the nearest corresponding points of the sensitivity domain, providing a powerful method for fast impact estimation for multiple projections and locations. However, the effect of assumptions necessary for initial response surface development must be assessed. This paper assesses the uncertainty introduced by use of a sensitivity framework for estimating changes in 20-year return period flood peaks in Britain. This sensitivity domain involves mean annual and seasonal precipitation changes, and a number of simplifications were necessary for consistency and to reduce dimensionality. The effect of these is investigated for nine catchments across Britain, representing nine typical response surfaces (response types), using three sets of climate projections. The results show that catchments can have different causes of uncertainty and some catchments have an overall higher level of uncertainty than others. These differences are compatible with the underlying climatological and hydrological differences between the response types, giving confidence in generalization of the results. This enables the development of uncertainty allowances by response type, to be used alongside the response surfaces to provide more robust impact estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate warming is predicted to lead to global and regional changes in the distribution of organisms. One influential approach to test this prediction using temporally repeated mapping surveys of organisms was suggested in a seminal paper by Thomas & Lennon (1999, Nature). The Thomas & Lennon approach corrects observed changes in the range margin for changes in the range size, and thus potentially controls for other broad-scale environmental changes between surveys, however the approach does not necessarily account for potential biases in sampling effort. To verify whether the issue of variation in sampling effort affects empirical estimates of shifts in range margin, we reanalyzed all three published studies exploring range margin changes of breeding birds in Great Britain ( GB), Finland, and New York State ( NY). Accounting for changes in survey effort on range margins lowered the estimated shift for breeding birds in New York, but the shift remained statistically significant. For Great Britain and Finland, for which no direct estimate of survey effort is available, we used species richness (a strong correlate of survey effort in New York) as a proxy and found that in both cases the estimated shift in range margin was significantly reduced and became nonsignificant. To understand how robust the approach is to sampling biases, we use a simulation model to show that the Thomas & Lennon approach is, under certain conditions, sensitive to changes in detection probability (probability to detect true occupancy) which in turn may be affected by changes in surveying effort between surveys. We thus found evidence that temporal changes in the distribution of breeding birds based on repeated mapping surveys may be inflated by changes in survey effort along range boundaries. We discuss possible approaches to deal with this issue in the analysis and design of national or regional surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Commercial fishing is an important socio-economic activity in coastal regions of the UK and Ireland. Ocean-atmospheric changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions are likely to affect future fish and shellfish production, and lead to increasing challenges in ensuring long-term sustainable fisheries management., The paper reviews existing knowledge and understanding of the exposure of marine ecosystems to ocean-atmospheric changes, the consequences of these changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, and the adaptability of the UK and Irish fisheries sector., Ocean warming is resulting in shifts in the distribution of exploited species and is affecting the productivity of fish stocks and underlying marine ecosystems. In addition, some studies suggest that ocean acidification may have large potential impacts on fisheries resources, in particular shell-forming invertebrates., These changes may lead to loss of productivity, but also the opening of new fishing opportunities, depending on the interactions between climate impacts, fishing grounds and fleet types. They will also affect fishing regulations, the price of fish products and operating costs, which in turn will affect the economic performance of the UK and Irish fleets., Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sectors to climate change. However, these gaps should not delay climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions, particularly those measures that clearly have other 'co-benefits'. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change could have dramatic consequences for the earth's environment, especially its hydrology, yet the 'noise' of natural climate variability can mask the impacts of climate change on shorter time scales, and can act (in an unpredictable way) to enhance or reduce its effect in any given period in the future. Thus, impact studies based on time slices, which look at modelled differences between baseline (e.g. 1961-1990) and future (e.g. 2070-2099) periods, can be misleading. This paper makes use of three new transient climate projections, from a perturbed parameter ensemble of a regional climate model (RCM) covering the period 1950-2099, to investigate transient changes in flood frequency and timing for two example catchments in England. Annual maximum (AM) time series are extracted from modelled flow timeseries (for hourly, daily mean and running 30-day mean flows). The AM series are analysed in terms of flood frequency (using a fitted generalised logistic distribution) and timing in a 30-year moving window. A non-linear trend analysis is performed on the derived time series, with permutation testing to estimate statistical significance. The results show that changes over the period are often non-linear, and vary considerably in size and statistical significance according to catchment, flow time step and RCM ensemble member. The relative effects of the three RCM ensemble members are consistent with their relative climate sensitivities. A nationwide analysis, using daily mean flows from a grid-based runoff and routing model for the UK with one of the RCM ensemble members, was consistent with the catchment results in terms of direction of trends, but generally gave trends of a higher magnitude, indicating the presence of some hydrological model structure uncertainty. The nationwide results suggest increased flood risk across much of the country. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

UK Government encouragement of the Severn Barrage project has regard for the fact that this is by far the largest single source of renewable energy available to the United Kingdom. A major concern for all forms of electricity generation is their effects of carbon emissions and, as a result which is now generally recognised, on global warming. The present paper makes use of published sources of carbon emissions data to estimate the carbon content of each of the operations required to produce, transport, construct, operate and decommission this barrage if it is located and designed as set out in 1989. The approach adopted here is based on estimating the ratio of the life-cycle carbon emissions demand of the scheme (gCO2) relative to its energy output (kW) over an assumed lifetime, this to include expected plant replacements over that period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the business-led advocacy of the UK emission trading scheme with special focus on the symbolic benefits of emission trading for the business community. It traces the development of the UK Emissions Trading Group and links the group's preferences for emission trading to socio-economic, operational and legislative contexts. The analysis reveals that, although business originally supported emission trading as an alternative to taxation, more socio-symbolic motives shaped business interest in emission trading after announcement of the Climate Change Levy. This suggests that ‘symbolic politics’ can drive industry support for economic instruments such as emission trading, even when the economic rationale for doing so is diminished or constrained by existing policy frameworks or wider socio-economic contexts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing paradigm of UK flood risk management that privileges structural solutions over non-structural ones is evolving in response to threats posed by climate change and higher environmental standards required by the EC Water Framework Directive. This paper examines the contrasting reactions of DEFRA and the Scottish Executive. The Scottish ‘experiment’, which embraces a strong definition of sustainability, is contrasted with a weaker version emerging in England and Wales. Divergent levels of risk and histories of managing that risk explain many of these contrasts. Scotland's more radical approach has the potential to become a new paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common RedshankTringa totanusbreeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of TwiteCarduelis flavirostriswintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed GodwitsLimosa limosa islandicathat shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. This paper aims to demonstrate the use of available vegetation data from the phytosociological literature in preliminary analyses to generate hypotheses regarding vegetation and climate change. 2. Data for over 3000 samples of calcareous grassland, mesotrophic grassland, heath and woodland vegetation were taken from the literature for a region in the west of Atlantic Europe and subjected to ordination by detrended correspondence analysis in order to identify the main gradients present. 3. Climate data were obtained at a resolution of 0.5° from an existing database. The relationship between vegetation composition and climate was investigated by the correlation of the mean scores for the first two ordination axes for each 0.5° cell with the climate and location variables. 4. The ordinations resulted in clear geographical gradients for calcareous grasslands, heaths and woodlands but not for mesotrophic grasslands. Significant correlations were shown between some of the vegetation gradients and the climate variables, with the strongest relationships occurring between the calcareous grassland gradients and July temperature, latitude and oceanicity. Some of the vegetation gradients were also inferred to reflect edaphic factors, management and vegetation history. 5. Those gradients that were related to temperature were hypothesized to reflect the influence of a progressively warmer climate on species composition, providing a baseline for further studies on the influence of climate change on species composition. 6. The validity of the literature data was assessed by the collection of an original set of field data for calcareous grasslands and the subsequent ordination of a dataset containing samples from both the literature and the field. The considerable overlap between the samples from the literature and the field suggest that literature data can be used, despite certain limitations. Such preliminary analyses, using readily available data, can thus achieve... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aviation expansion and the construction of a third runway at Heathrow airport is firmly back on the political agenda. Yet, the stark fact remains that a growing list of British governments has been unable to engineer a partial or temporary policy settlement in aviation. In exploring the challenges of reaching such a settlement, this article characterises the shifting and contested political and policy contexts of UK aviation. It begins by exploring the ‘wicked issue’ of aviation expansion before foregrounding how the politics of air travel is riven by competing policy frames, fragmented governance and the absence of gatekeepers. It argues that the Davies Commission and its efforts to remove aviation from the domain of partisan politics provided little more than a temporary respite for government. It thus concludes by questioning whether the May government's expansion proposals will succeed this time around, outlining how the contributions in this collection address the themes and issues of this overriding policy puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We begin our April issue with a paper describing the developments and effects of storm ‘Katie’, which brought significant effects to the United Kingdom on Easter Monday, 2015. In ‘Storm Katie – Rapid cyclogenesis and damaging winds of Easter Monday 2016’ on p. 103, Steven Ramsdale and Jason Kelly describe the meteorological developments that developed this low‐pressure system, the uncertainties associated with its development, the warnings issued and the damage caused, in part limited by its presence on a Bank Holiday. On p. 109, Colin Clark describes a flood 112 years ago in ‘The storm and flood of 13 May 1906 at Mells, Somerset, UK’ Dr Clark discusses the significance of the flood and its possible return period using synoptic charts of the time and descriptions published in local newspapers immediately following the event, emphasising our need to know more about floods in history. One of the least explored parts of the Middle East is the Empty Quarter. In the 1940s and 50s, the English explorer and writer Wilfred Thesiger crossed this area of extreme aridity. His discoveries and travels are described by Michael de Villiers in ‘Thesiger's weather in the Arabian Peninsula’ on p. 120. On p. 123, we present Iain Cameron and Adam Watson's annual review of the survival of snow on Scottish mountains. The overall warmth of last year is reflected in this year's title: ‘No Scottish snow patches survive until winter 2017/2018’. Weather and climate have a significant effect on human life and this journal often describes significant weather events, especially those that have affected Britain. But the local variability of weather may arguably present a more significant effect – not least, in the Developing World. Many factors affect school attendance, but weather and climate, including drought, rainstorms and dust pose important challenges, sometimes because of the secondary effects. Joseph Adejuwon discusses these effects in the Sahel zone in ‘Climate variability and the dichotomy in male–female school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in semi‐arid Nigeria’ on p. 125. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global energy policies embracing a transition to unconventional oil and gas development are hallmarks of many developed nations. Among these, the United Kingdom has framed the development of shale gas as one means to transition from high‐carbon fossil‐fuel consumption to low‐carbon alternatives. Yet the introduction of this industry and recent legislation associated with it have not been without controversy. Communities throughout the United Kingdom are engaged in sustained debates concerning climate change, health, the scale of extraction footprints, securitisation, and governance. Places such as Kirby Misperton, the focus of this article, are representative of many villages where questions abound about the role of justice at all stages and scales of governmental decision‐making. Using a legal geographic lens, this article examines narratives among local residents who are actively resisting the arrival of unconventional gas. I consider how the relationships between and among energy transition, policy, and justice have been interpreted by communities and argue for inequity and risk to be addressed in more transparent ways. I contend that highlighting counter‐narratives remains essential if powerful arguments by governments and others are to be negated. Fundamentally, true justice can only prevail when all stakeholders are considered legitimate and their opinions valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on previous experience with continental and global data sets, we use a quantile‐matching approach to homogenize temperature and humidity series measured by a network of 220 stations in the United Kingdom (UK). The data set spans 160 years at daily resolution, although data coverage varies greatly in time, space, and across variables. We use the homogenized data to analyse trends of the mean values as well as the lowest and highest quantiles of the distribution over the last 100 and 50 years. For the latter period, we find large regional differences, particularly between the southeastern and the northern part of the UK. The southeast has seen a faster warming, particularly for maximum temperatures in spring and summer, and a reduction of relative humidity; the northern mainland has become more humid and only slightly warmer. These differences become more evident for the highest quantiles and reflect a well‐known pattern of climate change affecting the extra‐tropics. Among the studied variables, the increases of wet bulb temperature and specific humidity are the most spatially homogeneous and are statistically significant for most stations in all seasons except winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entomology is key to understanding terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems at a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change and offers substantial untapped potential to benefit humanity in a variety of ways, from improving agricultural practices to managing vector‐borne diseases and inspiring technological advances.We identified high priority challenges for entomology using an inclusive, open, and democratic four‐stage prioritisation approach, conducted among the membership and affiliates (hereafter 'members') of the UK‐based Royal Entomological Society (RES).A list of 710 challenges was gathered from 189 RES members. Thematic analysis was used to group suggestions, followed by an online vote to determine initial priorities, which were subsequently ranked during an online workshop involving 37 participants.The outcome was a set of 61 priority challenges within four groupings of related themes: (i) 'Fundamental Research' (themes: Taxonomy, 'Blue Skies' [defined as research ideas without immediate practical application], Methods and Techniques); (ii) 'Anthropogenic Impacts and Conservation' (themes: Anthropogenic Impacts, Conservation Options); (iii) 'Uses, Ecosystem Services and Disservices' (themes: Ecosystem Benefits, Technology and Resources [use of insects as a resource, or as inspiration], Pests); (iv) 'Collaboration, Engagement and Training' (themes: Knowledge Access, Training and Collaboration, Societal Engagement).Priority challenges encompass research questions, funding objectives, new technologies, and priorities for outreach and engagement. Examples include training taxonomists, establishing a global network of insect monitoring sites, understanding the extent of insect declines, exploring roles of cultivated insects in food supply chains, and connecting professional with amateur entomologists. Responses to different challenges could be led by amateur and professional entomologists, at all career stages.Overall, the challenges provide a diverse array of options to inspire and initiate entomological activities and reveal the potential of entomology to contribute to addressing global challenges related to human health and well‐being, and environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the study which assesses the evidence from British hepatics with discontinuous distribution outside the British Isles in relation to the history of the British flora. In this paper, British hepatics showing disjunction in their world distribution are classified in six groups including mediterranean element, disjunct-temperate element and the American element. It is concluded that the hepatics considered do not form a homogeneous group and their distribution patterns all appear to be explicable in terms of post-glacial climatic change without invoking in situ survival through glaciation.

The biodiversity and climate crises demand ambitious policies lowering the environmental impacts of farming. Most current interventions incentivise so‐called land‐sharing approaches to address the widespread trade‐off between farm yields and on‐farm environmental outcomes by compensating farmers who adopt yield‐reducing interventions that encourage wildlife or reduce net emissions within farmed land.Here, we present the first quantification of the likely costs to taxpayers of land sharing compared with land sparing, in which large areas are removed from production altogether because of high‐yielding practices elsewhere in the landscape. Focusing on arable production in the United Kingdom, we used a choice experiment to explore farmer preferences and estimated the overall costs of contrasting agri‐environment schemes that delivered increased populations of three well‐studied farmland birds and reduced net carbon emissions in England. We included capital, administration and monitoring costs, and lost food production.Sparing delivered our target biodiversity and carbon emission outcomes at 79% of the food production cost and 48% of the taxpayer cost of sharing. The difference in subsidy payments required by farmers roughly tracked lost food production but other costs favoured sparing even more strongly.The cost‐related merits of sparing would probably increase further in studies incorporating (1) the many species and ecosystem services not deliverable on farmland, (2) the costs of food imports to compensate domestic lost production and (3) countries without as long and extensive a history of agriculture as the United Kingdom.Our results suggest that, for at least some conservation outcomes, continuing a land‐sharing approach in countries such as the United Kingdom is not only an inefficient use of government funds but also undermines conservation and food security in food‐exporting countries which bear the burden of compensating domestic production forgone in the name of conservation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National or regional grid‐based hydrological models are usually run at relatively fine spatial resolutions. But the meteorological data necessary to drive such models are often coarser resolution, so some form of spatial downscaling is generally required. A 1 km hydrological model for Great Britain is used to test the performance of a simple method of downscaling precipitation based on 1 km patterns of long‐term mean annual rainfall (Standard Average Annual Rainfall; SAAR). For a range of coarser resolutions (5, 10, 25 and 50 km), a 1 km grid of multiplicative scaling factors is derived as the ratio of the 1 km grid box SAAR divided by the mean SAAR of the coarser resolution grid box that contains it. A dataset of 1 km daily observation‐based precipitation is then degraded to the coarser resolutions, and application of SAAR scaling factors is compared to no downscaling and direct use of 1 km data, for simulating river flows for a large set of catchments. SAAR‐based downscaling provides a clear improvement over no downscaling. Using monthly rather than annual long‐term mean rainfall patterns provides minimal further improvement. There are no strong relationships between performance and catchment properties, but performance using 50 km precipitation without downscaling tends to be worse for smaller, steeper catchments and those with a more south‐westerly aspect; these benefit more from SAAR‐based downscaling. An assessment using high‐resolution convection‐permitting model data shows relatively small changes in derived SAAR scaling factors between a baseline and far‐future period, suggesting that use of historical scaling factors for future periods is reasonable. Applicability of this simple downscaling method for other parts of the world should be similarly assessed, for both historical and future periods. While use of annual patterns seems to be sufficient in Britain, areas where spatial rainfall patterns are more variable through the year may require use of sub‐annual patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subtidal seabed sediments are one of the planet's biggest organic carbon stores, but have been poorly considered in nature‐based climate change mitigation. Protection of the seabed is predominantly through establishment of marine protected area (MPA) networks, but their emphasis on biodiversity may limit their carbon value. The United Kingdom has one of the most extensive networks of MPAs in the world, yet damaging human activities are excluded from only a small portion. We calculate that full protection of the MPA network would offer limited carbon benefit, due to below average organic carbon stocks and disturbance from mobile fishing gears when compared to the entire U.K. seabed. We find that inshore exclusion zones (where mobile gears are restricted from nearshore areas to benefit biodiversity and low‐impact fishers) could offer greater carbon benefits compared to MPAs. However, neither of these biodiversity‐focused protection strategies are as effective for seabed carbon as targeted protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings are responsible for one‐third of the UK's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The move to reduce emissions has resulted in recent stringent building regulations primarily aimed at reducing heating and associated energy use, often by improving the building fabric's airtightness. However, internal gains dominated, highly–insulated and airtight non‐domestic buildings will likely overheat in the projected warming climate, requiring energy‐intensive cooling, thus diminishing the effectiveness of heating efficiency focused regulations. This research investigated the effects of the warming climate on overheating and energy use and resulting emissions in representative urban office spaces in London in the present‐day and projected future climates using hourly dynamic thermal simulations. Findings suggest that airtight and highly–insulated office buildings in the temperate UK will overheat in the 2050s. Heating demand reduces by at least 36% in the 2050s but electricity consumption and summertime space conditioning will increase by at least 13% and 55% respectively when hybrid cooling is adopted to ameliorate overheating. Despite the increase, a mixed‐mode ventilation strategy is one of the ways of achieving overall energy efficiency while meeting benchmark overheating and emissions targets. Current heating‐focused legislation needs to be re‐evaluated to account for the effects of the warming climate and overheating risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Other processes that drive heatwaves include sea surface temperature patterns and soil moisture feedback. For the UK, the Met Office defines a heatwave over a location as when it records maximum temperatures greater than or equal to a temperature threshold for at least three consecutive days. [Extracted from the article]

Tree planting now forms a major part of the UK climate mitigation strategy, with targets to increase the forest cover from the current 13% to 17%–20% by 2050. A tree planting strategy on this scale requires a significant amount of planning, bringing together expertise from a wide range of practitioners. We highlight four key reasons why fungi should be considered in tree planting strategies: 1. Fungi can cause severe tree disease. 2. Fungi can cause significant human health burdens. 3. Forest soil carbon and nutrient cycling is controlled by fungi. 4. Climate change is already affecting fungi. Following from these four reasons, we explore the ways in which the negative effects of fungi, such as plant and human disease, can be mitigated against, whilst also protecting and promoting the benefits of fungi in carbon storage and biodiversity. Based on this, we outline seven guidelines which should be integrated into existing tree planting guidelines and UK policy: A. Monitor tree fungal disease emergence and spread, including in source material trade (e.g. seeds and saplings). B. Choose tree species combinations appropriate to the specific habitat and appropriate for biodiversity and carbon storage goals. C. Develop and implement a widely accessible fungal spore forecast to complement existing pollen forecasts. D. Protect existing ancient and mature woodlands. E. Promote planting on suitable land types, avoiding grasslands and wetlands. F. Assess proposed and existing forest sites, ideally using a combination of fungal fruit body surveys and eDNA techniques. G. Develop and implement the UK Fungi Red List into UK law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary global crises and transformations—including climate change, migration, digitalization, pandemics, financial and economic integration, and terrorism—increasingly determine democratic politics and policymaking. We examine how populist attitudes are associated with perceptions of the threats posed by these six global crises and transformations. Using original survey data in India and the United Kingdom alongside secondary data in the United Kingdom, we robustly show that stronger populist attitudes are positively associated with the perception of threat posed by all six crises and transformations—particularly to the economy and national way of life, but also, of theoretical note, to humanitarian concerns. Furthermore, experimentally priming populist individuals on global governance solutions to each transformation has no effect on their perception of threat, suggesting that such threat perceptions are not driven by political concerns but by the societal crises and transformations themselves. Overall, our findings theoretically support the ideational conceptualization of populism as a thin ideology, distinct from nationalism or left‐right attitudes, which acts as a broad, if thin, political psychological predisposition. Substantially, we cautiously argue that our findings may give cause for optimism about the potential to rally popular support for global governance solutions to global challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a qualitative study of practitioner perspectives on regulated water resources planning practice in England and Wales. The study focuses on strengths and weaknesses of existing practice and the case for change towards a risk-based approach informed by stochastic modelling assessments. In-depth, structured interviews were conducted to capture the views of planners, regulators and consultants closely involved in the planning process. We found broad agreement that the existing water availability assessment methods are fallible; they lack transparency, are often highly subjective and may fail to adequately expose problems of resilience. While most practitioners believe these issues warrant a more detailed examination of risk in the planning process, few believe there is a strong case for a fundamental shift towards risk-based planning informed by stochastic modelling assessments. The study identifies perceived business risks associated with change and exposes widespread scepticism of stochastic methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global redistribution of species due to climate change and other anthropogenic causes is driving novel human–wildlife interactions with complex consequences. On the one hand, range‐shifting species could disrupt recipient ecosystems. On the other hand, these species may be contracting in their historic range, contributing to loss of biodiversity there. Given that arriving range‐shifting species could also perhaps have positive effects on recipient ecosystems, there is [in principle] a net benefit equation to be calculated. Thus, public opinion on these species may be divided and they may present a unique challenge to wildlife management.We surveyed the opinion of wildlife recorders about the establishment and management of eight birds and eight insects whose ranges have recently shifted into the United Kingdom. We asked whether respondents' attitudes were explained by the species' or respondents' characteristics, and whether or not climate change was emphasised as a cause of range‐shift. We also conducted qualitative analysis of the recorders' text responses to contextualise these results.Attitudes to range‐shifting species were mostly positive but were more ambivalent for less familiar taxa and for insects compared with birds. Respondents were strongly opposed to eradicating or controlling new range‐shifters, and to management aimed to increase their numbers. Whether climate change was presented as the cause of range‐shifts did not affect attitudes, likely because respondents assumed climate change was the driver regardless.These findings suggest that it will be difficult to generate support for active management to support or hinder species' redistribution, particularly for invertebrate or overlooked species among wildlife recorders. However, the positive attitudes suggest that on the whole range‐shifting species are viewed sympathetically. Engaging with wildlife recorders may represent an opportunity to garner support for conservation actions which will benefit both currently native and arriving species, such as improvements to habitat quality and connectivity. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]