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We estimate the relationship between high‐temperature exposure and land transaction using daily transaction data from 2013 to 2018 in China. Standard hedonic price method is used to perform multidimensional fixed effects regression on 458,564 transaction samples. This study shows that each additional day of the extremely high temperature increases the average bid price by 0.6%, which is equivalent to an additional annual increase of 15.018 billion yuan in land transaction costs. The effect of high temperature on land prices is considerably stronger for residential and commercial lands. We further find that high‐temperature‐induced changes of mood and cognition play a role. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm is used to calculate price deviation, which overcome missing eigenvalues and reduce nonlinear measurement error. Our findings indicate that heat can make investors more aggressive, which occurs when bidders continue to raise prices to win. The number of bidding behavior will not drop due to the hidden costs of land transactions. Specially, bidding experience offsets the cognitive output bias. This study contributes to the behavioral finance and decision‐making literature, helps investors make better investment management decisions, and alleviates the negative effect of land transaction premium on the real estate market. Plain Language Summary: Extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Extreme temperature can affect people's cognitive performance. Using large‐scale land transaction data and a fixed‐effects model, this paper analyzes the impact of extreme temperature on decision‐making. Results show that each additional day of extremely high temperature increases the average bid price by 0.6%, which is equivalent to an additional annual increase of 15.018 billion yuan in land transaction costs. This paper analyzes the impact of extreme temperature on human cognitive performance from the perspective of e climate change and uses land transaction behavior as a measure of decision‐making to reveal the mechanism of climate change affecting cognitive performance. Key Points: Each additional day of the extremely high temperature increases the average bid price by 0.6%Heat can make investors more aggressive, which occurs when bidders continue to raise prices to winBidding experience offsets the cognitive output bias [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive and accurate estimation of water quality in lakes and reservoirs is vital for the protection of the aquatic biota. Research on the spatiotemporal variations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in lacustrine systems is typically plagued, however, by a lack of long‐term, spatially continuous monitoring data. This paper assembled a 30‐year (1989–2018) data set of water quality in 586 lakes and reservoirs in China, along with basin characteristics and climate conditions, forming the comprehensive data set available. These data were then used in a stacking model (based on random forest, support vector regression, and K‐nearest neighbor models) to identify the relationships between nutrient concentrations and their influencing factors, including net anthropogenic N/P inputs, geographical position, climate, land use pattern, and soil type. The stacking models were developed using data collected over multiple time scales (annual, seasonal, and monthly), which were then applied to reconstruct TN and TP concentrations during the periods of 1980–2018 and 2020s–2050s under the climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The accuracy of the stacking models was 99.1% and 98.3% for TN and TP concentrations using ensembled data, respectively. The interannual variations in TN and TP contents in the 586 lakes and reservoirs during 1980–2018 exhibited a non‐monotonic pattern with a peak of 1.12 and 0.049 mg/L in 2007, respectively. This study demonstrates that stacking machine learning models represent a new effective approach for estimating nutrient concentrations in unmonitored lakes and reservoirs across broad spatiotemporal scales. Plain Language Summary: The current research assembled a 30‐year (1989–2018) data set of 586 lake and reservoir water quality as well as watershed characteristics and climate conditions at a national scale to build the stacking models. As far as we know, this is the most comprehensive data set of Chinese lake and reservoir water quality. Our study first developed models take into account more indicators of the terrestrial ecosystem and consider the impact of spatial attributes and natural background conditions of lakes and reservoirs on TN and TP concentrations. We then applied the stacking model combined the results of various base machine learning algorithms to reduce the variations of the prediction and assimilating the advantages of the base models. Through containing precipitation and temperature variables with various time scales, the models have the ability to estimate and predict the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations in TN and TP concentrations during the period of 1980–2018 and 2020–2050s under different future climate scenarios. The primary target of this paper is to probe the potential benefits of using a stacking model approach to more accurately describe and reconstruct TN and TP concentrations in lakes and reservoirs throughout China over a range of spatiotemporal scales. Key Points: λ $\lambda $ This study provides spatiotemporal estimates of nutrient concentrations in 586 lakes and reservoirs of Chinaλ $\lambda $ Spatiotemporal differences of nutrient concentrations and associated drivers have been revealedλ $\lambda $ Future changes in TN and TP concentrations were estimated for selected climate scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water system plays a key role in the coupled human‐nature system, and ancient people's experiences to build a water‐adaptative way of life still shed light on human's pursuit for climate resilience today with their innate traditional ecological wisdom. In this paper, taking the Huai'an‐Yangzhou Section of China's Grand Canal, and particularly its hydraulic engineering system as an example, we show the system's success in addressing the multi‐dimensional challenges in a historical geographical context, as well as its landscape‐shaping power across the entire lower Yellow‐Huai River Basin up until today. Therefore, we argue that the system is not merely a hydraulic engineering project, but a cross‐scale adaptive strategy that has deeply impacted generations of people's way of livelihood with its intrinsic resilient nature. We attribute the success to the advantages brought about by the "distributive hydraulic engineering" approach, which is reflected in the ancient Grand Canal‐management, over the "master‐structure dependent" approach which appears to be the common practice in modern hydraulic engineering. For testing the hypothesis, we build complex system models representing the two approaches with the Qingkou Hydraulic Nexus as an example, and by running long‐term simulation, we evaluate the performance of the two approaches with respect to long‐term resilience. We show from a complex network perspective that the former has significant flexibility advantages, and outperforms the former in multi‐goal fulfillment capacities and long‐term resilience especially under a low‐tech, tight resource constraints condition. We conclude the paper with discussions on the implications of the findings, and argue that though with limitations, the traditional ecological wisdom as reflected in the Grand Canal case, with its holistic approach and flexibility design, still sheds lights on today's large‐scale hydraulic engineering projects that pursue a resilient solution for long‐term adaptive survival for the mankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Only with the three largest emitters (the EU, China and the US) building a coalition was it possible to conclude the Paris Agreement in 2015. With the announced withdrawal of the US, the interdependence between the EU and China has increased significantly. Both actors have reiterated their will to implement the Paris Agreement and to cooperate on climate change. In times of political constraints between the EU and China, this seems puzzling. The paper takes a role‐theoretic perspective to assess the following question: How can the changing roles of the EU and China, ascribed to them by external and internal expectations, explain their increased climate cooperation? It draws on a qualitative text analysis of policy documents and expert interviews. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings against the backdrop of growing tensions between the EU and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China introduced sponge city development (SCD) as a policy initiative to address the complex, interlinked water challenges, such as urban pluvial flooding and water pollution, faced by urban development under climatic change and rapid urbanization. The initiative relies on low‐impact development (LID) techniques to integrate ecosystem conservation and urban development, with the aim to maintain or restore natural landscapes and their water regulating capacity as a way to mitigate urban flooding and associated pollution while augmenting water supply. While the country prepares for SCD demonstration and upscaling after pilot implementation since 2014, the initiative is subject to a design deficit in policy implementation that has received little consideration in both the literature and the policy arena but that negatively affects the effectiveness of SCD and its long run impact as intended by the policy. In this paper, we examine the design deficit by mapping and analyzing the policy implementation for SCD in the framework of theory of change (TOC). We present key conditions for individual components in SCD implementation to deliver causal pathways from program inputs to long‐term impacts, with identified issues characterizing the design deficit. We provide an overview of the literature on SCD to shed some light on current research while identifying knowledge gaps. The paper proposes and justifies the framework of ecosystem services as an innovative design tool to deliver a systematic approach needed to address the design deficit, paving the pathways for SCD from inputs to impacts fully developing the policy potential for green urban transition with resilience and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is presented of the precipitation bias and change signal in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) (RegCM4) projections driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) over China. RegCM4 is driven by five different GCMs for the 120‐year period 1979–2099 at 25 km grid spacing, under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. We find that the GCMs and RegCM4 reproduce the general spatial pattern of precipitation over China in all four seasons, with RegCM4 providing greater spatial detail, especially over areas with complex terrain. The spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by an underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in northern China, most pronounced in the Northwest basins, by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when more mixed results are found. In addition, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found in summer between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role played by the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Plain Language Summary: China is a vulnerable country to climate change due to its dense population, unbalanced social and economic development, shortage of water resources, and fragile ecosystems. How future precipitation will change over the region is of great concern for the general public and decision makers. This paper presents a first analysis of precipitation simulations from a set of five RCM (RegCM4) 21st century climate change projections, driven by coarse resolution general circulation models (GCMs) over China. We find that the spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by a precipitation underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in north China by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role of the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Key Points: The spatial patterns of bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4RegCM4 provides greater spatial detail of present day precipitation simulation compared to the GCMs and finer structures of future changesThe change patterns across the RegCM4 projections show a high correlation, but not always between each pair of driving GCM and RegCM4 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest CO2 emitter, China's emission reduction is the key to mitigating global climate change. Global investment capital, as a significant influencing factor of emissions, greatly contributes to China's economic growth and stimulates frequent interprovincial trade since the reform and opening. However, the spatial correlation of foreign investment and CO2 emissions across Chinese provinces is rarely considered. This paper explores the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in emission reduction in China during 2004–2015 using the spatial Durbin economic models with two‐way fixed effects. Then, the partial differential equations decomposition of the local and spatial spillover effects is conducted for capturing the marginal effects of influencing factors. Results show that FDI contributes to emission reduction for the whole country, whereas interprovincial transmission and intra‐provincial transmission show significant heterogeneity. Specifically, FDI increases emissions in host areas, while FDI provides positive environmental externalities to adjacent areas through spatial spillovers. Our findings provide a new perspective to explain the coexistence of the "Pollution Haven" and "Pollution Halo" theories in a country. Also, the exploration of spatial spillover effects of FDI on emissions can provide a reference for other countries with rising trade and investment flows to promote collaborative emission reduction. Key Points: Local effects of foreign direct investment on emissions are positive, while spatial spillover effects are negativeThe coexistence of the "Pollution Haven" and "Pollution Halo" theories in a country is examinedResults help promote collaborative emission reduction across regions with trade [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In frequency analysis of annual maximum flood series (AMFS), it is mechanism‐based and significant to incorporate the information of the underlying "ordinary" daily streamflow events for improving accuracy of flood risk estimation and appropriate management. In previous studies related to flood nonstationarity, the classical norming constants method (C‐NCM) has been used to derive statistical parameters of annual maximum flood distribution from daily streamflow distribution. However, C‐NCM does not flexibly consider the feasible range of the scale parameter of annual maximum flood distributions, which can result in the inability to provide sufficient and reliable models to fit AMFS. This paper aims to investigate the potential of two alternative norming constants methods in fitting annual maximum floods, namely the Hall's norming constants method (H‐NCM) and the Fisher and Tippetts' norming constants method (FT‐NCM) respectively. A comparative study of these three methods was carried out using hydrological streamflow series of 77 stations in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, China. The results found that H‐NCM outperforms both C‐NCM and FT‐NCM for the stations with relatively low‐skewness coefficient of AMFS. Therefore, H‐NCM is recommended to prioritize for practical applications when considering daily streamflow rather than small samples of flood events. Furthermore, if the skewness coefficient exceeds Cs,Gumbel≈1.14, the overall modelling performance of these three methods is significantly deteriorated. This can provide some reference for the applicability of the norming constants method in flood frequency analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sanjiang Plain is the largest marsh distribution area of China, and marshes in this region significantly affect regional carbon cycle and biodiversity protection. The vegetation phenology of marsh significantly affects the energy exchange and carbon cycle in that region. Under the influence of global climatic change, identifying the changes in phenology and their responses to climatic variation in marshes of Sanjiang Plain is essential for predicting the carbon stocks of marsh ecosystem in that region. Using climate and NDVI data, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and explored the impacts of climatic variation on vegetation phenology in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Results showed that the SOS advanced by 0.30 days/a, and EOS delayed by 0.23 days/a, causing LOS to increase significantly (p <.05) by 0.53 days/a over marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Spatially, the large SOS advance and EOS delay resulted in an obvious increasing trend for LOS in northern Sanjiang Plain. The rise of spring and winter temperatures advanced the SOS and increased the LOS, and the rise in temperature in autumn delayed the EOS in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering seasonal climatic conditions in simulating marsh vegetation phenology and indicate that the different influences of climatic variation on marsh vegetation phenology in different regions should be fully considered to assess the marsh ecosystem response to climatic change in Sanjiang Plain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how crop phenology responds to climate change is critical for enabling agricultural adaptation measures. Pre‐season temperature alone leads to well‐understood changes in crop phenology. Nevertheless, the modulation effect of concurrent precipitation extremes on the response to temperature extremes has been largely under‐addressed. Here, we investigate the response of rice transplanting dates to pre‐season temperature extremes and reveal the modulation effects of concurrent precipitation extremes by using station‐observed rice transplanting dates from 1981 to 2018 across mainland China. We also evaluate the performance of a remotely sensed phenology product, ChinaCropPhen1km, in reproducing the above temperature responses and modulation effects. Our results showed that transplanting dates tended to advance in response to an extremely hot pre‐season, while concurrent extreme drought offset the advance by up to 2.6 days. Transplanting dates tended to be delayed in response to an extremely cold pre‐season, while concurrent extreme precipitation exacerbated the delay by up to 1 day. Responses to temperature extremes and modulation effects were divergent across different regions. Under extremely hot conditions, transplanting dates advanced further in hotter and wetter regions, while under extremely cold pre‐seasons, transplanting dates delayed less in colder and drier regions. Transplanting dates from the ChinaCropPhen1km product underestimated the responses to temperature extremes by up to 4.7 days and detected the opposite modulation effect compared to those obtained from observations. Our results highlight that the need to improve our understanding and modeling of modulation effects of precipitation extremes on temperature–phenology relationship, which benefits the field of agriculture risk analysis and climate change adaptation. Plain Language Summary: Frequent climate extremes are projected with ongoing climate change. This paper reveals the effect of concurrent precipitation extremes in modulating rice transplanting date response to pre‐season temperature extremes in China and assesses remotely sensed transplanting dates from the ChinaCropPhen1km product in reproducing the above temperature responses and modulation effects. Results show that concurrent precipitation extremes substantially influence the temperature–transplanting date relationship. Two kinds of modulation effects are detected: (a) concurrent extreme precipitation tends to exacerbate the extremely cold‐induced delay by up to 1 day, and (b) concurrent extreme drought conditions tend to offset the extremely hot‐induced advance by up to 2.6 days. From a spatial perspective, responses to temperature extremes and modulation effects are divergent across regions. Additionally, remotely sensed transplanting dates from the ChinaCropPhen1km product underestimate the temperature responses and detect the opposite modulation effects compared to observations. This study highlights the critical role of concurrent precipitation extremes in modulating temperature impact on crop phenology, which requires more understanding and modeling in future analysis. Key Points: Concurrent extreme drought offset the extreme hot induced‐advance, and extreme precipitation exacerbate the extreme cold induced‐delayResponses to temperature extremes and modulation effects of precipitation extremes are divergent across regionsRemotely sensed transplanting dates from ChinaCropPhen1km underestimate the responses to temperature extremes and modulation effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic and financial risks of global warming have become a hot issue of academic interest. This article analyzes global warming, financial risk, and the economic statistics of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 as a sample to assess the influence of the severity of global warming on financial risk. Global warming is found to affect financial risk and to have a substantial favorable influence on the amount of financial risk. Global warming also has significant effects on households, enterprises, financial institutions, and governments. There is heterogeneity in the effects of climate variation on financial risk. Global warming will cause a greater accumulation of financial risk in economically developed regions. Additionally, it will lead to financial risks by causing a decline in the incomes of residents, a decline in the profits of enterprises, growth in the number of loans that financial institutions consider to be nonperforming, and a widening of the gap between government revenue and expenditures. All of these effects will have an adverse domino effect on the economy. To reduce the financial risks caused by global warming, countermeasures are being offered to ensure social cohesion, conduct risk stress testing, create risk mitigation instruments, and encourage environmentally responsible development. This paper discusses policies and provides policymakers with recommendations on how to cope with the systematic financial risks induced by climate variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose‐response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input‐output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional‐level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector‐level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary: Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences. Key Points: The economic cascading effect of climate change is approximately 18 times larger than its direct damageThe least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more economic impacts than the most developed regionThe decline in agricultural output also affects manufacturing and services through trade networks, especially in developed regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the biggest agroproducts producers, China plays an important role in the global supply. Yet, climate change inevitably threatens their production and leads to tremendous losses. Furthermore, climatic and nonclimatic factors are likely to influence their producing behaviors and yields. Accordingly, this work aims to explore both the qualitative and quantitative nexus between climate change, nonclimatic drivers, and agroproduct yield in China. We choose lychee (Litchi chinensis Sonn.), with world's largest production in China and one of the most demanding agroproduct for climatic conditions, as the subject. A two‐way fixed‐effect Poisson model with robust standard error is developed based on county‐level panel data in 39 main producing counties in China along with climatic and cultural festival factors from 2014 to 2019. The main conclusions are as follows: (a) the lychee culture festival, a nonclimatic driver, has negative effect on lychee yield, and this is a novel effect pathway theoretically and we verify it empirically; (b) climate changes in various phenological phases are significantly correlated to lychee yield; precipitation during the exposure phase or flowering phase has negative effect, and minimum temperature during the heading phase has positive effect, which is the first paper in this field; and (c) a new method is developed to analyze nonnegative yield and production, which could also be applied in other industries. Core Ideas: The negative relationship of lychee culture festival and lychee yield is a novel effect pathway.The climate effect in five phenological phases on lychee yield is the first reported in this field.A new method is developed could also be used in the other industries.Less precipitation during exposure and flowering phase produces higher yield.Higher minimum temperature during the heading phase tends to increase lychee yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government's use of fiscal policy, which includes fiscal income and spending, is crucial in its fight against environmental pollution and climate change. Innovation‐driven has arisen as a new alternative to reconcile economic success with environmental conservation in light of tighter resource restrictions and the suggestion of the Chinese High‐quality Development policy. The paper uses an econometric model to examine the connection between institutional resource consumption efficiency and carbon neutrality, using a data set consisting of Chinese inter‐provincial panel data from 2007 to 2020 as a research sample; fiscal decentralization is also discussed as a potential moderating factor. Collaborative innovation positively boosts ecological efficiency and produces geographical spillovers, and the findings suggest so long as the economic distance is considered. When it comes to increasing ecological efficiency, collaborative innovation plays a more important role than financial decentralization alone. Among these is the improvement of carbon neutrality, which is best achieved via the joint promotion of ecological efficiency and industrial organizations. By reducing the intensity of the positive effect of innovative cooperation on ecological efficiency, the moderating effect suggests that fiscal decentralization is a critical factor in this relationship. Promoting China's ecological efficiency necessitates a fair distribution of local budgetary spending. China should also actively encourage the degree of synergy between institutional resource consumption efficiency and associated institutions to improve eco‐efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a key biodiversity area and a major economic zone in China, the biodiversity of the area is confronted with severe challenges. In this paper, we analyzed species distribution patterns based on a dataset with 18,538 seed plant species to identify hotspots and evaluate conservation effectiveness and gaps of the YRB. We calculated distribution patterns of species richness with the top 5% richness algorithm and complementarity algorithm, and reconstructed a phylogenetic tree and elucidated spatial phylogenetics. There were 214 hotspot grid cells covering only 6.8% of the study region, but containing 88% seed plant species. Then, we conducted correlation analysis on distribution patterns of different algorithms and species categories, which showed moderate or weak correlations between the top 5% richness algorithm and complementary algorithm. Conservation effectiveness analysis indicated there were 116 hotspot grid cells (accounting for 73.6% of the total species) protected by current conservation networks and there are many conservation gaps remaining. Finally, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict suitable habitat areas of threatened species under current and future climate scenarios. Prediction analysis results indicated future expansion of suitable habitat to the southeast, and reduction in the central and western portions of the study area. When we considered anthropogenic areas, the suitable habitat was severely decreased, indicating the importance of optimizing the layout of conservation networks and comprehensive biodiversity conservation planning in the YRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the current literature on public responses to climate change in China. The paper first provides a "macro view" by reviewing what we know about public climate change knowledge, risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behaviors based on large‐scale survey research. The paper also examines what sociodemographic, psychological, and cultural variables – such as age, gender, rural/urban status, and income – can best predict public understanding and responses to climate change. Second, it provides a "micro view" by presenting findings from place‐based and contextualized research projects in China. The review concludes by suggesting next steps to advance the understanding of public engagement with climate change in China. This article is categorized under:Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Perceptions of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding the formation and maintenance of biogeographical breaks is fundamental for developing analyses related to biodiversity and conservation. Biogeographical patterns along China's coast are changing dramatically in the face of climate change and alterations in land‐use. In this paper, we sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the formation and maintenance of a biogeographical barrier on China's coast. Location: Coastline of northern China. Methods: We have reviewed literature of research related to biogeographical and phylogeographical patterns of intertidal macrobenthos along the coast of Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas, summarized the distribution patterns and biogeographical breakers. We have also reviewed literature about the processes and drivers on coastal biogeographical breaks, to clarify the mechanisms acting to the northward shift of the biogeographical break. Results: The Yangtze (Changjiang) River Estuary Biogeographical Barrier (YREBB) at 30°–31°N, which serves as a coastal biogeographical boundary for the Cold Temperate Northwest Pacific Province and the Warm Temperate Northwest Pacific Province for marine species, has moved northward to ~33°–34°N due to the changes in habitat continuity, oceanographic circulation and climate factors. Consequently, a new biogeographic barrier for intertidal macrobenthos, the Subei Biogeographical Barrier (SBB) on the central coast of Jiangsu Province, has emerged. Main conclusions: The formation and maintenance of the SBB are closely related to the larval dispersal potential, larval settlement success and post‐settlement population establishment, all of which have been profoundly influenced by anthropogenic environmental changes. The northward shift of the YREBB and the appearance of the SBB provide an excellent model system for investigating the impacts of climate change and land‐use change on coastal biogeographic patterning and for clarifying the mechanisms underlying the formation and maintenance of biogeographical barriers in the face of the unprecedented environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological projections provided by the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) combining hydrological models include multi‐source uncertainties, which may challenge the formulation of relevant adaption and mitigation policies. In this paper, the overall uncertainty and the relative contribution of each uncertainty component were investigated for hydrological projections over 408 watersheds in China by using 3 shared socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5), 21 GCMs, 8 bias correction methods, 4 hydrological models, and 2 sets of optimized hydrological model parameters. The results show that the total uncertainty (T) is mainly contributed by uncertainty related to global climate models (G), with the mean percentage ranging from 60.4 to 64.1%, followed by the interaction uncertainties among all components, with the mean percentage ranging from 22.0 to 26.4%. The uncertainty contribution of hydrological models (H) (6.1–9.4%) ranks third, followed by emission scenarios (S) (2.9–5.9%) and bias correction methods (B) (0.2–1.1%). The uncertainty contribution of the optimized hydrological model parameters (P) (0.2–0.3%) is almost negligible. In terms of spatial variability, the relative contribution of uncertainty related to global climate models (G) is the highest in the near future for northern China (67.5–70.6%) and in the far future for southern China (66.1–66.7%). However, it was found to be lower for the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China (45.3–57.9%) in the near and far future. The relative contribution of hydrological model uncertainty is higher for southwestern and northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau (7.2–19.5%) and lower for northern, eastern, and southern China (2.5–6.6%). This study highlights the importance of including multiple GCMs and hydrological models in hydrological impact studies to consider their overall uncertainty. The development of global climate models and hydrological models is still the best way to reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate changes have led to frequent and recurrent heat stress, which has seriously affected the world maize production. The experiment presented in this paper was carried out during the maize‐growing season in 2021 and 2022 at the Huang–Huai–Hai Region Maize Science and Technology Innovation Center (36°09′N, 117°09′E) in Tai'an, Shandong province, China. The test site is located in the semi‐humid warm temperate continental monsoon climate zone, soil is brown loam. We selected different heat‐sensitive maize varieties: heat‐tolerant variety Zhengdan 958 (ZD958) and heat‐sensitive variety Xianyu335 (XY335) to study the stress effects of high temperature on the development of tassel in the key stage of its differentiation (the 12‐leaf stage, V12). We found that exposure to heat stress during the V12 stage significantly reduced the tassel size and the anther dehiscence area, making it difficult to disperse pollen, thus effectively reducing pollen production. In addition, heat stress had significant negative effects on pollen development, resulting in deformed pollen and lower pollen viability and germination rate. Our results also showed that heat stress significantly increased the activities of key reactive oxygen species‐scavenging enzymes including superoxide dismutase, peroxidase and catalase, and that the malondialdehyde and H2O2 content in tassels exposed to heat stress were significantly higher than those control group, where it should be noted that for the XY335, these effects were more pronounced than for the ZD958. The endogenous hormone content of tassels exhibited a variety of responses. After heat stress, the zeatin and salicylic acid content in tassels of both maize varieties were significantly lower than those in the respective control groups, while the abscisic acid and gibberellin acid content were significantly higher. With respect to the jasmonic acid and 3‐indoleacetic acid content, the two maize varieties exhibited opposite responses: in tassels from ZD958 plants subjected to heat stress were higher than those in the respective control group, while in tassels from XY335 plants, they were lower. The observed changes in protective enzyme activities and endogenous hormone contents induced by heat stress significantly affected the development of maize tassels and significantly reduced the amount, activity and germination rate of pollen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐range transport and vertical distribution of aerosols are important factors for assessing the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. This paper reveals the vertical distribution and trends of aerosol optical properties in China using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. The Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model was used to analyze the transport and trends of aerosols in the layer with the highest occurrence frequencies of dust, polluted dust, polluted continental and elevated smoke aerosols. The results indicated that (a) there were significant regional and seasonal differences in the vertical distribution of aerosols. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend in a given region depends on the changes in the aerosol type with the highest frequency and the layer corresponding to the largest AOD in the vertical profile. The frequency of polluted dust aerosols was the highest in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH) and Central China. The considerable decrease in the 0–2 km AOD led to a significant trend of the column AOD. (b) The changes of AOD and main aerosol types in a region are also affected by the changes of aerosol sources and long‐range transport pathways. In the BTH, dust aerosols originated from the Mongolian Plateau, accounting for 57.88% of the total trajectories. The Pearl River Delta was dominated by elevated smoke aerosols, with trajectories mainly originating from the Myanmar and Vietnam, accounting for 27.38% and 29.59%, respectively. The trend of 15‐year backward trajectories of dust aerosols on the Tibetan Plateau indicated that the trajectory from India is increasing. Plain Language Summary: Aerosols are one of the main factors affecting global climate change, influencing global radiation through direct and indirect effects. Long‐range transport aerosols and their vertical distribution are important factors for assessing the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. At present, there is limited research on the vertical distribution and transport pathways of different types of aerosols in multiple regions over China. Considering that aerosols in different regions of China exhibit large vertical distribution and transport differences, we revealed the vertical distribution and trends of aerosol optical properties in China using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data. The Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model was used to analyze the transport and trends of different aerosols. We found significant regional and seasonal differences in the vertical distributions of aerosols. The changes in the aerosol optical depth and main aerosol types in a given region were also significantly affected by the changes in aerosol transport sources and transport pathways. This study provides comprehensive insight into the vertical distribution and transport characteristics of different types of atmospheric aerosols in the Chinese region over the last 15 years, which is very important to further evaluation of the impact of different aerosol types on the radiative effects and the environment. Key Points: The vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties exhibits notable seasonal and regional differences using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) dataThe trend of total aerosol optical depth (AOD) mainly depends on the joint changes of the highest frequency aerosol and the maximum AOD layer in a vertical profileThe changes of AOD and main aerosol types in a region are also affected by the changes of aerosol transport sources and transport pathways [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall fluctuations are the major threats caused by climate change. This paper analyses the impact of seasonal rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty using panel data for 992 counties, which are located in humid zone in the south of China from 2000 to 2018. The findings are as follows: (1) Rainfall fluctuations significantly affect rural poverty, specifically, increased rainfall significantly alleviates rural poverty in the dry season, but aggravates rural poverty in the rainy season. (2) The effect of rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty is significantly heterogeneous in different regions. (3) Rainfall fluctuations put low‐income areas at greater risk of returning to poverty. (4) The mechanism through which rainfall fluctuations affect rural poverty is agricultural production, and market regulation can mitigate the shock of rainfall fluctuations. Our research provides policy implications for developing countries to address the risks of poverty from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought seriously endangers the development of agro‐pastoral ecotone in arid and semi‐arid regions. However, drought evolution characteristics of semi‐arid sandy grassland and its drivers are not well understood in the complex climate change context. Thus, in this paper, the revised standardized precipitation evaporation indices on one‐month (SPEI‐1) and growing‐season (SPEI‐6) scale, flash drought and dry spells (DS) were calculated as drought indicators, and the temporal variabilities and meteorological drivers of drought in Horqin Sandy Land during the growing period (April–September) from 2007 to 2021 were studied. The results showed that SPEI‐1 and SPEI‐6 exhibited negative trends and periodic change. This drought aggravation was manifested in increased grades and numbers of drought months. Flash droughts can occur every month during the growing season. And its occurrence was not only positively correlated with all drought events in frequency but also synchronized in time. The increased number of DS showed an asymmetrical shift towards 7‐day‐and‐longer DS. SPEI sensitivity to precipitation (P) was noticeably higher than to atmospheric evapotranspiration demand (AED) at both monthly and growing season scales. SPEI sensitivity to AED was modulated by P amounts, which was higher during low P period. Apart from the amounts of P and AED, their temporal variability also strongly determined how they affect the drought severity. P was also the main driver for flash drought and long DS, but AED with larger amount and higher variability is the reason for their aggravation. Our results demonstrate the complexity of drought intensification in semi‐arid sandy grasslands and highlight the important role of AED anomalies in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of the runoff to lake has become a common phenomenon of the inland lakes in northwest China, and the quantitative calculation of the driving factors affecting the runoff change has always been a challenge in lake research. In this pursuit, the present study was performed on Lake Daihai as an example, based on the relevant data from 1960 to 2018. The quantitative calculations of the runoff driving factors of Lake Daihai from 1982 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2017 were based on the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). It was concluded that human activities were the main factors affecting runoff change after 1982. The SCRCQ method was improved, which could carry out the quantitative calculations on the driving factors affecting the runoff change of the Lake Daihai from 1961 to 2017 on a yearly basis. The results show that the dominant factor of runoff changes in Lake Daihai was found to be the climate change before 1975, and it changed into human activities after 1975. Finally, based on the comparative analysis of the results of SCRCQ and improved SCRCQ, the advantages of improved SCRCQ were discussed. In addition, the reasons for the variation of the runoff to lake dominated by different factors in different periods for Lake Daihai were analyzed. Key Points: This paper analyzes the influence of climate change and human activities on the change in runoff volume of Lake Daihai according to the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ)The SCRCQ method was improved, which could carry out the quantitative calculations on the driving factors affecting the runoff change of the Lake Daihai from 1961 to 2017 on a yearly basisThe reasons for the variation of the runoff to lake dominated by different factors in different periods for Lake Daihai were analyzed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re‐engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lidar is an active remote sensing instrument, and it has been widely used in the detection of atmospheric environmental parameters and meteorological parameters. In recent years, climate change has been widely concerned by the public, and the corresponding atmospheric detection technology has also been developed rapidly. Atmospheric Lidar has been developed rapidly in China, and has achieved good research achievements. The research progress and development status of Lidar for atmospheric detection in recent years are introduced and summarized in this invited paper. The advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of atmospheric detection Lidars and their applications in different detection objects are comprehensively introduced in this article. Finally, the bottlenecks of Lidar technology are summarized, and the development trend of Lidar is also prospected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically analyses the construction of eco-cities as technological fixes to concerns over climate change, Peak Oil, and other scenarios in the transition towards 'green capitalism'. It argues for a critical engagement with new-build eco-city projects, first by highlighting the inequalities which mean that eco-cities will not benefit those who will be most impacted by climate change: the citizens of the world's least wealthy states. Second, the paper investigates the foundation of eco-city projects on notions of crisis and scarcity. Third, there is a need to critically interrogate the mechanisms through which new eco-cities are built, including the land market, reclamation, dispossession and 'green grabbing'. Lastly, a sustained focus is needed on the multiplication of workers' geographies in and around these 'emerald cities', especially the ordinary urban spaces and lives of the temporary settlements housing the millions of workers who move from one new project to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound climate extremes, such as events with concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, have significant impacts on the health of humans and ecosystems. This paper aims to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of compound extremes of monthly temperature and precipitation, evaluate the performance of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating compound extremes, and investigate their future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results show a significant increase in the frequency of compound warm extremes (warm/dry and warm/wet) but a decrease in compound cold extremes (cold/dry and cold/wet) during 1985–2014 relative to 1955–1984. The observed upward trends of compound warm extremes over China are much higher than those worldwide during the period of interest. A multi‐model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6 models performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet extremes, and temporal correlation coefficients between MME and observations are above 0.86. Under future scenarios, CMIP6 simulations show substantial rises in compound warm extremes and declines in compound cold extremes. Globally, the average frequency of warm/wet extremes over a 30‐yr period is projected to increase for 2070–2099 relative to 1985–2014 by 18.53, 34.15, 48.79, and 59.60 under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. Inter‐model uncertainties for the frequencies of compound warm extremes are considerably higher than those of compound cold extremes. The projected uncertainties in the global occurrences of warm/wet extremes are 3.82 times those of warm/dry extremes during 2070–2099 and especially high for the Amazon and the Tibetan Plateau. Plain Language Summary: Compound climate extremes, such as the events with concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, have significant impacts on the health of humans and ecosystems. Can climate model simulate the historical compound extremes? If yes, how the global compound extremes will change in the future? In this study, we found that the global climate model performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet and warm/dry extremes during the period 1955–2014. With greenhouse gas emissions continuing to increase in the future, compound warm/dry and warm/wet extremes show a continuous increase in frequency in the next few decades, while compound cold/dry and cold/wet extremes are projected to occur less frequently. Key Points: A multi‐model ensemble of CMIP6 models performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet extremesThe inter‐model uncertainties for the frequencies of compound warm extremes are considerably higher than those of compound cold extremesThe projected uncertainties in the global occurrences of warm/wet extremes are 3.82 times those of warm/dry extremes during 2070–2099 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In 2015, the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by all member states of the United Nations. This paper argues that actually implementing the SDGs is far more challenging than reaching agreement to adopt them. To overcome these challenges, a Four‐Step Adaptive Governance Framework was set up to facilitate implementation of these goals. Two‐level policy tools are presented to illustrate the policy evolution of China's development transitions, within the framework of “adaptive governance.” This study found that the Four‐Step Adaptive Governance Approach is deeply embedded in China's policy process, and it has contributed significantly to China's development during the past four decades. The Adaptive Governance Framework and this example of its application in China suggests it could be a useful tool for developing countries that are formulating their national strategies to achieve their SDGs by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The solar radiation or insolation at a specific locality on the Earth's surface is determined by the distance of this point from the sun and by the angle with which the radiation hits the earth's surface. The theory that variations in the earth's orbit determine the amount of radiation and therefore the climate which is the Milankovitch Cycle. In non‐marine lacustrine rift basin, the changes of climate can be recorded by the palaeontology, and it also plays an important role in controlling lacustrine fluctuations. The lacustrine fluctuations are indicated by coastal onlap, which is the landward or lake‐ward onlap of non‐marine coastal deposits. In this paper, based on borehole data, wireline logs, seismic datasets, biostratigraphic data and palaeontology, the lacustrine fluctuation curve can be reconstructed from the onlap of lacustrine deposits in non‐marine sequences. The durations and magnitudes of these changes can be used to construct charts showing cycles of the relative rising and falling of lake level. In addition, the changes of lake level can also be reflected by the palaeontology such as pollen. The living conditions and distributions of pollen can be a good indicator for climate changes and lacustrine fluctuations in an a non‐marine setting. The calculation of the Milankovitch Cycle can be determined by the GR log in the study area which keeps a record of cycle changes. All climatic changes and lacustrine fluctuations are mainly resulted from the Milankovitch Cycles, and therefore, through the reconstruction of lacustrine fluctuations, climate changes and the Milankovitch Cycle, the correspondences among them can be clearly addressed. All the results can contribute a lot in theory research in the study area and lead to a new focus in practical hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taihu Basin, situated on the south side of the Yangtze delta, is a large flood-prone area that has urbanised rapidly. The risk of flooding is set to increase in future because of continued economic development and the impacts of climate change. Scenario analysis has been adopted to help understand the potential impacts of long-term change on flood risk, including the effects of climate change and socio-economic development, thus providing the basis for the development of sustainable flood risk management strategies. This paper describes the flooding processes in the Taihu Basin and sets out strategic questions that the scenario analysis sought to address. It provides an overview of the assessment framework adopted in the China/ UK scientific cooperation project ' China- UK Scenario Analysis Technology for River Basin Flood Risk Management in the Taihu Basin'. Further details of the component studies carried out as part of the project are given in the associated papers in this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cryogenian is a critical period in the history of the Earth. It is marked by multiple extreme climate changes that caused alternating global glacial and interglacial intervals. These dramatically changed the sedimentary system, and metal ores and source rocks distributed widely during this period. Therefore, studying the Cryogenian stratigraphic framework and sedimentary basins is important to improve the stratigraphic resolution for metal mineral and hydrocarbon prospecting and exploration in China. This review paper firstly divides three tectonic‐stratigraphic regions in China in the Cryogenian, including the tectonic‐stratigraphic regions of Great South China, Xingmeng‐Tarim, and North China. Secondly, geochronologic data and geological records are combined to clearly depict the Cryogenian sedimentary sequence of continental blocks and micro‐continental blocks in different tectonic‐stratigraphic regions. The results were used to propose a new comparison scheme of stratigraphy for the Cryogenian in China. Finally, according to differences of sedimentary evolution and tectonic evolvement, sedimentary basins and their lithofacies paleogeography are identified and summarized, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper draws on recent optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to evaluate the long-held assumption that dust accumulation rates in the Loess Plateau and the extent of active aeolian sand in the dunefields to the north have varied together over time, because both are controlled by the strength of the Asian monsoons and also possibly because the dunefields are proximal loess sources. The results show there is little evidence that high rates of loess accumulation coincided with well-dated episodes of extensive dune activity in the Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin dunefields, at 11-8 ka and 1-0 ka. Explanations for the apparent lack of coupling include local variation in the trapping of dust and post-depositional preservation of the loess and dune sediments, in response to varying local environmental conditions. In addition, a substantial portion of the loess may be transported directly from source areas where dust emission has somewhat different climatic and geomorphic controls than aeolian sand activity within the dunefields. The results of this study cast doubt on the use of loess accumulation rate as a palaeoclimatic proxy at millennial timescale. The dunefield and loess stratigraphic records are interpreted as primarily recording changes in effective moisture at a local scale, but the timing of late Quaternary dune activity, along with a variety of other evidence, indicates that moisture changes in many of the drylands of northern China may not be in phase with precipitation in core regions of the Asian monsoons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the biggest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing tremendous pressure domestically and internationally. To promote the international efforts to tackle climate change, the Chinese government announced its 2020 carbon intensity target and is actively taking part in the international climate negotiations. In this paper, we review some of the climate burden-sharing proposals raised by Chinese scholars to shed some light on China's perspective on the post-Kyoto climate architecture. Then we summarize China's current pollution abatement policies and measures, and analyze some potential policy instruments for China to reconcile its future economic growth and carbon mitigation, as well as some practical design and enforcement issues to be considered for the near term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring., (© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Risk of climate‐related impacts results from the interaction of climate‐related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk combining risk‐causing factors and risk‐bearing bodies, the regional differences in climate impacts are still missing. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of hazards and socioeconomic risks of extreme events, risks of risk‐bearing bodies in China under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C based on future climate scenarios, and quantitative evaluation theory for climate change risk. For severe heat waves, hazards might significantly intensify. Affected population under 2.0 °C warming might increase by more than 60% compared to that of 1.5 °C. Hazards of severe droughts and floods might strengthen under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Economic losses might double between warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C, and the population affected by severe floods might continuously increase. Under the integrate effects of multiple disasters, the regions with high population and economic risks would be concentrated in eastern China. The scope would gradually expand to the west with socioeconomic development and intensification of extreme events. High ecological risks might be concentrated in the southern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, while the ecological risk in northern China would expand. High agriculture yield risks might be distributed mainly in south of the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, south of the Yangtze River, and west of Northwest China, and the risk levels might continuously increase. Plain Language Summary.: Based on the climate and socioeconomic scenario data from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Inter‐comparison Project and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, risks from climate change were identified under different warming levels, considering socioeconomic damage and ecosystem and food production losses. The relatively developed areas of eastern China exhibit high risks, and the risks show a westward and northward expansion trend. Socioeconomic damage, natural ecosystem, and food production losses would increase with socioeconomic development and intensification of global warming. We believe that a quantitative assessment of climate change risk should integrate climate‐related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. These results can provide decision‐making support for governments and a database for adapting to climate change. Key Points: Risks of socioeconomic development, ecosystem and food production would increase between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, economic losses might doubleIncreases in annual socioeconomic losses of 2.0 °C warming would be more significant than those of 1.5 °CEastern China exhibits high integrate risks of climate change, which present westward and northward trends from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planned resettlement is being widely considered as a response to the impacts of climate change. As many millions of people are expected to be displaced in the coming decades, scholars and policymakers are searching for precedence to inform their research and planning, particularly from experiences of Development‐Induced Displacement and Resettlement (DIDR). Nowhere in the world is DIDR and other closely related forms of planned resettlement more prevalent than in China: an estimated 78 million people have been displaced by development projects over the last six decades. While planned resettlement has consistently been shown to cause impoverishment, the Chinese state views it as the answer to a multitude of social ills including poverty, environmental damage, low levels of domestic consumption, and most recently, climate change, providing impetus to the normalisation of resettlement as adaptation. This paper examines the prospects for just outcomes in resettlement projects by examining distributive justice at multiple scales in existing resettlement practice in China. It finds that due to the interplay between resettlement and questions of procedural justice, prospects for just outcomes are quite limited, and that in order to achieve fair adaptation, alternatives to planned resettlement should be emphasised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desertification is among the most severe global environmental and the socio-economic problems in the world. This paper is a first attempt to link scientific research to national policymaking on desertification in China. We aim to trace scientific research findings in the national policies and strategies of desertification prevention in China. One example is the large-scale plantation programme in the dust source region threatening Beijing and Tianjin since 1998. It has been suggested that the recent increased forest cover due to plantations in North China has helped reduce dust storm emissions and contributed to mitigating dust storm weather in Beijing and Tianjin. Reforestation/afforestation policy remains in the Chinese national environmental strategies for the new national forestation programme (2011-2020). Overgrazing during recent decades has been blamed for land degradation and desertification in Northwest China by many scholars. Small field experiments prove that vegetation in desertified/degraded land could recover if isolated from human activities. Since 1998, natural recovery has become one powerful national force to prevent land desertification and recover natural vegetation. One example is selected at Cele County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to showcase how vegetation could thrive at large scale in natural arid and semi-arid climate if isolated from human intervention. The plantation project has pushed the stakeholders to better understand their negative impact on the environment, especially the overgrazing behaviour. After that, the household income and living level have also been significantly enhanced; however, it is not clear whether the project induced labour migration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB‐psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: hS = 0.330, hT = 0.866; ITS: hS = 0.458, hT = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions—Tarim Basin, the central regions—Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions—Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While previous studies have largely focused on anthropogenic warming characterized by surface air temperature, little is known about the behaviors of human‐perceived temperature (HPT), which describe the "feels‐like" equivalent temperature by considering the joint effects of temperature, humidity and/or wind speed. Here we adopted an optimal fingerprinting method to compare seasonal mean HPTs in China with those from simulations conducted with multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We found clear anthropogenic signals in the observational records of changes in both summer and winter HPTs over the period 1971–2020. Moreover, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence was robustly detected, with clear separation from natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings. The anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing plays the dominant role (>90%) of human‐perceived warming. Urbanization effects contribute slightly and moderately to the estimated trends in summer and winter HPTs, respectively, in addition to the effects of external forcing. Plain Language Summary: Human influences have been identified in the observed warming quantified by surface air temperature (SAT), but SAT alone is inadequate as a metric for human thermal comfort. Here we focus on human‐perceived temperature (HPT), which describes the "feels‐like" equivalent temperature by considering the joint effects of temperature, humidity, and/or wind speed. We isolate anthropogenic impacts on the observed increase in summer and winter HPTs in China during 1971–2020 by comparing observations with state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Results show that the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas is detected, with clear separation from other external forcings such as solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic aerosols. The human‐induced greenhouse gas increases are also found to explain most (>90%) of the observed human‐perceived warming. Along with the effects of large‐scale anthropogenic forcing, urbanization effects also have a slight to moderate influence on the estimated trends in summer and winter HPTs. Our work is an early attempt to provide quantitative evidence for the physiological impacts of anthropogenic global warming and local urbanization on human beings. Key Points: The warming is quantified by human‐perceived temperature that considers the joint effects of temperature, humidity and/or wind speedHuman influence could be robustly detected in both summer and winter human‐perceived warmingThe observed increase in human‐perceived temperature is mostly attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Xinhai revolution, China faced contending domestic identities, and its roles within the international order were assigned by external powers. In the 100 years that have followed, China's internal competing identities have become more stable and it now faces major challenges in reconciling its contending international identities. China's current ascendency returns it to a position of directing the international order, which resembles its position before the Xinhai revolution. As China changes international identities and gradually moves from being a developing state to a great power, it creates uncertainty among other states. In order for China's rise to continue, it needs to prevent this uncertainty from becoming conflict: it needs a stable international environment. This paper argues that by adopting a view of China's rise as a series of shifts in its identity, the scepter of conflict can be reduced because the uncertainty that is being created can be understood as well as contribute understanding about international behavior. This paper looks at the roles and identities displayed by China at the UN Climate Change conferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The biases in the Global Circulation Models ( GCMs) are crucial for understanding future climate changes. Currently, most bias correction methodologies suffer from the assumption that model bias is stationary. This paper provides a non-stationary bias correction model, termed residual-based bagging tree ( RBT) model, to reduce simulation biases and to quantify the contributions of single models. Specifically, the proposed model estimates the residuals between individual models and observations, and takes the differences between observations and the ensemble mean into consideration during the model training process. A case study is conducted for 10 major river basins in Mainland China during different seasons. Results show that the proposed model is capable of providing accurate and stable predictions while including the non-stationarities into the modelling framework. Significant reductions in both bias and root mean squared error are achieved with the proposed RBT model, especially for the central and western parts of China. The proposed RBT model has consistently better performance in reducing biases when compared with the raw ensemble mean, the ensemble mean with simple additive bias correction, and the single best model for different seasons. Furthermore, the contribution of each single GCM in reducing the overall bias is quantified. The single model importance varies between 3.1% and 7.2%. For different future scenarios ( RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results from RBT model suggest temperature increases of 1.44, 2.59, and 4.71 °C by the end of the century, respectively, when compared with the average temperature during 1970-1999. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24-h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, comparison of L-moment statistics and 24-h design rainfall depths. Future 24-h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L-moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24-h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24-h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of −16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cosmopolitanism is the focus of much current debate. This literature, however, is marked by a relative paucity of detailed research that examines the impact of cosmopolitanism as a social force within different societies. In particular, two topics that have received little attention despite their utter importance for current global challenges are the scale and impact of cosmopolitanism in China and the significance of ‘cosmopolitan innovation’. This paper explores both on the basis of evidence from over 70 interviews with parties involved in low-carbon innovation, a field that may be considered to be particularly propitious for cosmopolitan motivation. We argue that there is distinct evidence of cosmopolitanism in China but that this is a relatively fragile and elite development, despite China's increasingly deep integration into global networks and flows. Furthermore, the cosmopolitanism in evidence is a distinctly Chinese version, thereby offering important lessons regarding the nature of cosmopolitanism per se and the reciprocal challenge of China to the existing cosmopolitanism of the global North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many agricultural regions in China are likely to become appreciably wetter or drier as the global climate warming increases. However, the impact of these climate change patterns on the intensity of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GHGI, GHG emissions per unit of crop yield) has not yet been rigorously assessed. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, we found that climate change is expected to cause a 20.0% crop yield loss, while stimulating soil GHG emissions by 12.2% between 2061 and 2090 in China's agricultural regions. A wetter‐warmer (WW) climate would adversely impact crop yield on an equal basis and lead to a 1.8‐fold‐ increase in GHG emissions relative to those in a drier‐warmer (DW) climate. Without water limitation/excess, extreme heat (an increase of more than 1.5°C in average temperature) during the growing season would amplify 15.7% more yield while simultaneously elevating GHG emissions by 42.5% compared to an increase of below 1.5°C. However, when coupled with extreme drought, it would aggravate crop yield loss by 61.8% without reducing the corresponding GHG emissions. Furthermore, the emission intensity in an extreme WW climate would increase by 22.6% compared to an extreme DW climate. Under this intense WW climate, the use of nitrogen fertilizer would lead to a 37.9% increase in soil GHG emissions without necessarily gaining a corresponding yield advantage compared to a DW climate. These findings suggest that the threat of a wetter‐warmer world to efforts to reduce GHG emissions intensity may be as great as or even greater than that of a drier‐warmer world. Plain Language Summary: Both climate observations and projections suggest that warmer temperatures will intensify convective precipitation, resulting in drier regions becoming drier and wetter regions becoming wetter. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, this study has investigated the effects of drier‐warmer (DW) and wetter‐warmer (WW) climates on crop yield and soil greenhouse gas emissions in China. Our findings indicate that the cost of greenhouse gas emissions in a wetter‐warmer world for crop production could be as high as or even higher than in a drier‐warmer world. Moreover, this study suggests that effective climate mitigation practices need to account for the combined effects of extreme climate changes and nitrogen addition on greenhouse gas emissions and crop production. Therefore, China would need to exert considerably more effort in a future with warmer and wetter conditions to achieve its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Key Points: Climate change would cause a 20% crop yield loss and an increase of 12.2% in soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2061 and 2090A Wetter‐Warmer climate would cause a more significant crop yield loss and about double the GHG emissions of a Drier‐Warmer climateNitrogen fertilizer‐induced GHG emissions in a Wetter‐Warmer climate would increase 37.9% compared to those in a Drier‐Warmer climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Loess Plateau of China, located to the west of the Liupan Mountains and north of the Qinling Mountains stretching across the Yellow River, is the main loess deposit area in Northwest China. The loess in the northwest of China has deposits with large thickness and extensive distribution. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy spectrum analysis of loess have been performed to study the relationship between the loess microstructures and the forming climates Era. The relevant indexes were evaluated including the sand‐dropping speed (Vn), certain sedimentary depths (hn sand particle volume (Vd) and element ratios of Ca/Fe, K/Al, Si/Al and Ca/Mg. The microstructure indexes of loess accumulation and evolution reflect paleoclimate conditions and time scales to a certain extent. The important discovery is the microscopic sand‐dropping speed (Vn) and the sedimentary depth hn) calculation method of different sedimentary ages. These indices are compared with the record of major aeolian‐forming climates from the Guliya ice core, and provide a reliable benchmark for studying climate change It also can be used as important indicators of monsoonal change and environmental evolution reconstruction. The index of sand sedimentation speed (Vn) got from loess microstructure could reflect sand‐dropping speed and loess deposition course. According the article can serve as new indicators of climatic changes of different forming loess layers. It can also be concluded that the climatic indexes obtained from loess microstructure can reflect climate conditions of loess forming. The loess forming climatic parameters are synchronous correspond to Tengger Desert and Guliya ice core for studying climate change, then microscopic parameters can also be used for preliminary analysis of loess climate formation and has be found corresponding evidence, and the loess climatic parameters correspond to the other two indexes. The analysis of loess microstructure indexes is very useful in researching climate change. Loess microstructure indexes can find new indicators and information about the monsoon climate evolution and paleoclimate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acquiring freshwater resources is a necessary component of sustainable human settlement subject to increasing pressure from population and climate changes. This sometimes scarce resource primarily comes from rivers, and international river basins ( IRBs), where watersheds and watercourses cross political boundaries, are often spaces of great political tension and conflict worldwide. Such conflict potential has garnered interest from a wide range of research communities, and each emphasises public access to hydrologic data as integral to successful international management of IRBs. However; these hydrologic data, especially measurements of river flow rate, are often closely guarded state secrets. Satellites have been cited as a key technology set to challenge this data monopoly that have yet been unable to calculate river flow rate without some form of guarded ancillary data. Now, at-many-stations hydraulic geometry ( AMHG) offers a means of circumventing data limitations without any a priori information, and the forthcoming NASA/ CNES Surface Water and Ocean Topography ( SWOT) satellite also promises to estimate flow rates solely from its novel measurements following launch. In this paper, we explore how these newly available estimates of river flow rate could reconfigure water-management and interstate relations in IRBs, and demonstrate AMHG, for two cases: the Ganges- Brahmaputra and Mekong. For these basins we find that satellite flow rate retrievals will likely reinforce and favour state-level negotiations of water resource governance. Also, satellite flow retrievals can have the direct, concrete effect of improving hydrologic understanding of the upstream Ganges- Brahmaputra, a sorely needed advance that will positively benefit millions of Bangladeshis and affect state-level interactions between India, China, and Bangladesh. Finally, we avoid offering prescriptive water management solutions for each case, as local stakeholders will ultimately determine if and how such satellite retrievals will be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an investigation into palaeoflooding along the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River valley, China. Based on the sedimentary evidence of the palaeohydrological regime, two bedsets of palaeoflood slackwater deposits (SWDs) were identified interbedded within the Holocene loess-soil sequence along the riverbanks of the Ankang east reach. Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating and stratigraphical correlation with previously dated sites were used to reconstruct the chronology of the palaeoflood events. The results show that the palaeoflood events represented by SWD1 occurred between 13 000 and 12 400 a, coincident with the climatic transition from the Bølling-Allerød (BL+AL) stage to the Younger Dryas (YD) event. The palaeoflood events recorded by SWD2 were dated to 1000-800 a, corresponding to the later stages of the North Song Dynasty (AD 960-1127) and the subsequent South Song Dynasty (AD 1127-1279), which was a time of climatic decline according to historical documents. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated using the step-backwater method, and the peak discharges were estimated to be in the range 35 200-47 400 m3 s-1. These results are of significance to our understanding of the regional hydrological response to global climatic change, the utilization of water resources, hydraulic engineering, flood control and disaster reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a mixed-method approach to investigate smallholder perceptions of climate change in the Loess Plateau region of China. We combine qualitative and quantitative research methods with climate data analysis to gauge the climatic changes smallholders have perceived over the last 30 years, as well as how these changes have been experienced. At two research sites, each method produced markedly different results. Drawing on the work of feminist political ecologists and other geographers, we suggest that the dissonance between data sets generated using different research methods arises because each method produces knowledge that is partial and situated. To explain the contradictions between smallholder perceptions of climate change across the qualitative and quantitative methods and their disagreement with the climate record, we adopt aspects of assemblage theory and the dwelling perspective to suggest that smallholder knowledge of climate change is structured through their observations of and interactions with dynamic, networked socio-natural assemblages. We argue that a better understanding of the conduits through which perceptions and experiences of climate change come into being, and hence how climate knowledge is shaped, is necessary to account for the multiple epistemologies through which climate change is known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archeological evidence from loess sediments from Shangchen on the southeastern Chinese Loess Plateau indicates a suspension of hominin occupation around the time of the early mid‐Pleistocene climate transition, prompting a re‐assessment of climate‐vegetation‐hominin interactions. Loess deposits with in situ lithic records cover the period of hominin occupation and reveal four distinct climate‐vegetation periods (2.1–1.8, 1.8–1.26, 1.26–0.9, and 0.9–0.6 Ma). Major oscillations in climate superimposed upon an aridification trend and an expansion of C4 herbaceous vegetation from about 1.26 Ma may have driven early humans to move to more hospitable locations in the region. Comparison with the record at Nihewan indicates that large‐scale climate oscillations induced disparate hominin responses due to distinctive local environmental conditions. Plain Language Summary: A combination of several lines of evidence suggests that changes in climate and their impacts on the availability of food and shelter from around 1.26 million years ago may have driven the dispersal of early humans from the southeastern Chinese Loess Plateau to more hospitable environments elsewhere in the region. Key Points: Pleistocene temperature, rainfall, and C4 plants ratios are quantitatively reconstructed from the Shangchen loess deposits with artifactsHigh climate variability, C4 plants expansion and aridification suspended hominin occupation at Shangchen during the early mid‐Pleistocene climate transitionHominins responded differently to large‐scale climate oscillations depending on distinctive local environmental conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]