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Background: Although anthropogenic climate change poses existential challenges for Indigenous communities in the Arctic, these challenges are not entirely unprecedented. Over many generations, Arctic peoples have developed a wide range of behavioral strategies to navigate environmental change and uncertainty, and these strategies provide a foundation for contemporary adaptation., Aims: In this article, we focus on mixed cash-subsistence economies and the social networks that underlie them in Alaska. The patterns of food production, labor exchange, and food sharing in subsistence-oriented communities throughout Alaska are driven by the productivity of keystone households who regularly harvest and share resources within and between communities., Materials & Methods: Building on previous research suggesting the critical importance of these networks to community resilience, we use network analysis to investigate whether patterns in resource transfers between households are associated with subsistence harvest diversity-the diversity of species harvested by a household unit. We use exponential random graph models to describe the structure of a sharing network from Aniak, Alaska, and model the links between harvest productivity, harvest diversity, and household position in this network., Results: Our results indicate that both productivity and diversity are positively associated with network connections, and that productivity alone provides an incomplete model of network structure., Discussion: We suggest that subsistence harvest diversity may play a unique role in supporting adaptive capacity and resilience by maintaining the productivity of keystone households despite changing environments and sustaining social network structures that circulate resources throughout the community. Harvest diversity may also serve as a broad indicator of Indigenous ecological knowledge and a tangible representation of cultural practices, values, and worldviews that underlie subsistence in Alaska., Conclusion: Greater attention to harvest diversity is important for understanding how subsistence networks adapt to environmental change and uncertainty linked to social and ecological dynamics of anthropogenic climate change., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Objective: Human dimensions of climate change research in the Arctic often proposes ways for local communities to adapt to changes to their environment, foregrounding problems posed by climate change while treating social, political, and economic factors as background conditions. We explore the relevance of this research paradigm for Inuit by examining how Inuit from Kangiqsujuaq present and discuss the major issues facing their community., Methods: We thematically code and analyze the responses of 107 Inuit to three free-response questions about the problems facing their community and the best things about their community. The data were collected as part of a questionnaire for a project focused on food security and food sharing conducted in Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, in 2013 to 2014., Results: Few respondents mentioned issues relating to climate change among the most pressing problems faced by their community. Rather, a suite of interconnected social and economic issues, particularly substance abuse and the cost of living, emerged as the main concerns of Kangiqsujuarmiut. However, the environment was a central theme in respondents' favorite thing about their community., Conclusions: In light of the concerns identified by Inuit, we argue that much research on climate change makes incorrect a priori assumptions and consequently fails to capture aspects of Arctic socioecological systems that are essential for how Inuit are responding to climate change. An inductive, open-ended approach can help produce research more relevant to communities., (© 2020 The Authors. American Journal of Human Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

In the context of climate change, research on frozen soils has attracted much attention in recent years, and numerous research papers have been published on these topics in the last decade. However, the present status and developmental trends in frozen soils research have not been reported systematically. Herein, a bibliometric analysis was conducted using 7,108 research papers on frozen soils published between 2010 and 2019. The results indicate that: (a) although the number of articles published increased from 432 in 2010 to 1,066 in 2019, the average number of citations per paper reached a maximum of 5.40 in 2014, and subsequently decreased to 2.99 in 2019; (b) China, the USA, and Canada ranked first to third in terms of total papers; (c) the most popular author keywords were boreal, tundra, Landsat, lakes, decomposition, dissolved organic carbon, permafrost thaw, and carbon cycle; and (d) the five most popular research topics in 2010–2019 were the characteristics and factors influencing frozen soils, the Arctic carbon cycle under the background of its complex environment, permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in the context of climate change, ancient frozen soils in various historical periods, and frozen soils in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time‐lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high‐frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite‐derived phenology products.However, in remote regions including the high‐latitude Arctic, deploying time‐lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges.Here, we present a novel, low‐power, compact, lightweight time‐lapse camera system, called power‐interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low‐Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology.Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (< −30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground‐based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is predicted to have dramatic effects on Arctic freshwater ecosystems through changes to the abiotic template that are expected to influence biodiversity. Changes are already ongoing in Arctic systems, but there is a lack of coordinated monitoring of Arctic freshwaters that hinders our ability to assess changes in biodiversity.To address the need for coordinated monitoring on a circumpolar scale, the Arctic Council working group, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, established the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program, which is an adaptive monitoring program for the Arctic centred around four ecosystem themes (i.e., Freshwater, Terrestrial, Coastal, Marine). The freshwater theme developed a monitoring plan for Arctic freshwater biodiversity and recently completed the first assessment of status and trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity.Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater has compiled and analysed a database of Arctic freshwater monitoring data to form the first report of the state of circumpolar Arctic freshwater biodiversity. This special issue presents the scientific analyses that underlie the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program–Freshwater report and provides analyses of spatial and temporal diversity patterns and the multiple‐stressor scenarios that act on the biological assemblages and biogeochemistry of Arctic lakes and rivers.This special issue includes regional patterns for selected groups of organisms in Arctic rivers and lakes of northern Europe, Russia, and North America. Circumpolar assessments for benthic diatoms, macrophytes, plankton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish demonstrate how climate change and associated environmental drivers affect freshwater biodiversity. Also included are papers on spatial and temporal trends in water chemistry across the circumpolar region, and a systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge that demonstrates its potential to support assessment and conservation of Arctic freshwaters.This special issue includes the first circumpolar assessment of trends in Arctic freshwater biodiversity and provides important baseline information for future assessments and studies. It represents the largest compilation and assessment of Arctic freshwater biodiversity data to date and strives to provide a holistic view of ongoing change in these ecosystems to support future monitoring efforts. By identifying gaps in monitoring data across the circumpolar region, as well as identifying best practices for monitoring and assessment, this special issue presents an important resource for researchers, policy makers, and Indigenous and local communities that can support future assessments of ecosystem change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic Ocean freshwater storage increased since the mid‐1990s, but the cause was unknown. Jahn and Laiho (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088854) use ensemble runs of a coupled climate model to suggest that the observed increase is anthropogenic. The paper quantifies when the anthropogenic signals should emerge from the noise of natural variability. This result contextualizes research on the Arctic Ocean freshwater system and sketches an unprecedented opportunity. Future work should elucidate mechanisms, seek to observe the anthropogenic freshwater changes, and investigate the impacts on biogeochemistry and the North Atlantic Ocean circulation. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is a region of clear man‐made climate change. Changes in the Arctic Ocean salinity and currents have been seen, but the cause was unknown. A new paper shows that the changes are probably due to man‐made climate change. The reason is they only occur in a climate model with man‐made climate forcing. This is an important result because it helps scientists focus their research into how the changes work. It also points to a valuable opportunity to watch the Arctic Ocean respond to man‐made climate change. There might be important future impacts on North Atlantic oceanography and North Atlantic climate that scientists can now look for. Key Points: A recent paper shows that observed increases in Arctic Ocean freshwater storage are anthropogenicThe paper anticipates future anthropogenic changes, which are testable predictions for observersThere are widespread impacts of anthropogenic freshwater change, both within the Arctic and the North Atlantic Oceans [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, local meteorological data for a period of 35 years (from 1979 to 2013) from Kuujuaq station have been used to calculate the surface refractivity, N (a link for the data is available in the acknowledgements), and to estimate the vertical refractivity gradient, dN1, in the lowest atmospheric layer above the ground. Monthly and yearly variations of the mean of N and dN1 are provided. The values obtained are compared with the corresponding values from the ITU maps. The long‐term trend of the surface refractivity is also investigated. The data demonstrate that the indices N and dN1 are subject to an evolution that may have significance in the context of climate change. Monthly means of N show an increasing departure from ITU‐R values since 1990. Yearly mean values of the dN1 show a progressive decrease over the period of study. Seasonal means of dN1 show a decrease over time, especially for summer. Such a trend may increase the occurrence of superrefraction. However, currently available ITU‐R recommendations for microwave link design assume a stationary climate, so there is a need for a new modeling approach. Key Points: Surface refractivity and its gradient were calculated using collected local meteorological data for a period of 35 years in the lowest atmospheric layer above the groundThe evolution of the surface refractivity has two cycles; in one cycle, the evolution depends mainly on the inverse of the temperature; in the second cycle, this evolution depends mainly on the water vapor pressure, that is, humidityThe results of the analysis show that the linear trends of the yearly variations of the vertical refractivity gradient over the analyzed period decay from year to year; such a trend may increase the occurrence of superrefraction; note that this observation is based on the estimated values of dN1; in the future, we hope that the measured values of local meteorological data will be available [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic tundra consists of diverse habitats that differ in dominant vegetation, soil moisture regimes, and relative importance of organic vs. inorganic nutrient cycling. The Arctic is also the most rapidly warming global area, with winter warming dominating. This warming is expected to have dramatic effects on tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics. We completed a meta‐analysis of 166 experimental warming study papers to evaluate the hypotheses that warming changes tundra biogeochemical cycles in a habitat‐ and seasonally specific manner and that the carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles will be differentially accelerated, leading to decoupling of elemental cycles. We found that nutrient availability and plant leaf stoichiometry responses to experimental warming were variable and overall weak, but that both gross primary productivity and the plant C pool tended to increase with growing season warming. The effects of winter warming on C fluxes did not extend into the growing season. Overall, although warming led to more consistent increases in C fluxes compared to N or P fluxes, evidence for decoupling of biogeochemical cycles is weak and any effect appears limited to heath habitats. However, data on many habitats are too sparse to be able to generalize how warming might decouple biogeochemical cycles, and too few year‐round warming studies exist to ascertain whether the season under which warming occurs alters how ecosystems respond to warming. Coordinated field campaigns are necessary to more robustly document tundra habitat‐specific responses to realistic climate warming scenarios in order to better understand the mechanisms driving this heterogeneity and identify the tundra habitats, communities, and soil pools most susceptible to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid extensive magmatism may have a profound effect on global climate by liberating and releasing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere through contact metamorphism of lithologically heterogeneous host rocks and degassing of magma and associated lava flows. The high Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard offers accessible, superbly exposed outcrops revealing Early Cretaceous magmatism associated with the High Arctic Large Igneous Province (HALIP). In this contribution, we investigate the onshore‐offshore intrusive complex of central Spitsbergen formed due to HALIP activity, that is, the Diabasodden Suite. This is the most "data‐rich" part of Svalbard due to past petroleum exploration and research drilling. In this area, the predominantly dolerite intrusions are emplaced in a range of host rocks ranging from Permian carbonate‐dominated successions to organic‐rich shale‐dominated successions of Middle Triassic and Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous age. Two hundred sixty five individual igneous intrusions, covering 72 km2, are exposed onshore in the study area. This equates to approximately 0.14–2.5 km3 of emplaced magma. In addition, subsurface characterization using borehole, seismic and magnetic data indicates that an area of additional ca. 3,000 km2 is affected by magmatism (magma volume 3.2–195.2 km3). Wireline logs in boreholes characterize both intrusions and associated aureoles. Aureoles with very low resistivity indicate occurrence of organic‐rich shales suggesting past fluid circulation and de‐gassing. This study forms the foundation for quantifying HALIP‐related magmatism in the data‐poorer parts of Svalbard, and other circum‐Arctic basins. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions are known to influence global climate today. In the past, even greater volcanic eruptions have happened than we know today, and some of these likely caused major global climatic shifts and contributed to mass extinctions. Volcanic eruptions are fed by a complex of sub‐surface magma pathways. If magma in such "plumbing systems" does not reach the Earth's surface, it will solidify horizontally (as sills) or vertically (as dykes). Together dykes and sills form an igneous complex that heats up the surrounding rocks and may cause the release of gas during this process. If this happens relatively near to the surface, this gas may escape to the atmosphere and contribute to global climate change. The key variables that control the extent of climate effects include the emplacement depth, the spatial extent of the magmatism and the lithology of the host rocks. In this paper, we examine the igneous complex of dykes and sills in Spitsbergen in the high Arctic. We use borehole, seismic and field data to calculate how much magma was emplaced in this area and discuss whether it may have contributed to global climate change approximately 125 million years ago. Key Points: Igneous intrusions are well exposed in central Spitsbergen across a range of host rocksTwo‐hundred sixty five intrusions cover 72 km2 of the onshore part, and a further 3,000 km2 of intrusions are characterized by geophysical dataIgneous intrusions and associated aureoles are characterized by wireline data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The centennial response of land‐terminating glaciers in Greenland to climate change is largely unknown. Yet, such information is important to understand ongoing changes and for projecting the future evolution of Arctic subpolar glaciers, meltwater runoff, and sediment fluxes. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology, and sedimentology of prominent moraine ridges and the proglacial areas of ice cap outlet glaciers on the Qaanaaq peninsula (Piulip Nunaa). We determine geometric changes of glaciers since the neoglacial maximum; the Little Ice Age (LIA), and we compare glacier behaviour during the LIA with that of the present day. There has been very little change in the rate of volume loss of each outlet glacier since the LIA compared with the rate between 2000 and 2019. However, the percentage of each glacier that is likely composed of cold‐based ice has increased since the LIA, typically by 20%. The LIA moraines comprise subrounded, striated, and faceted clasts that evidence subglacial transport, and outwash plains, flutes, kames, and eskers that evidence subglacial motion and meltwater within temperate ice. Contrastingly, contemporary ice margins and their convex ice surfaces comprise pronounced primary foliation, ephemeral supraglacial drainage, sediment drapes from thrust plane fractures, and an absence of open crevasses and moulins. These calculations and observations together lead us to interpret that these outlet glaciers have transitioned towards an increasingly cold‐based thermal regime despite a warming regional climate. Thermal regime transitions control glacier dynamics and therefore should be incorporated into glacier evolution models, especially where polythermal glaciers prevail and where climate is changing rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic have for millennia relied on freshwaters for drinking water and freshwater species that comprise important subsistence harvests, which promotes a strong connection to the land and unique understanding of organisms and ecosystem processes and changes. Despite the importance of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services to Arctic Indigenous communities, there have been limited attempts to summarise available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) regarding Arctic freshwater systems and to understand how conservation can benefit from this knowledge base.This paper presents a systematic review of literature documenting circumpolar Arctic IK with a focus on freshwater biodiversity in Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), Russia, and the U.S.A. (Alaska). Standardised search terms and methodologies were used to locate relevant documents using Google Scholar and Google Advanced search engines. Thematic coding was used to identify freshwater biodiversity themes within the identified documents.Documented IK of freshwater biodiversity was found from all five geographic regions and included data on both species presence and habitat changes with potential to affect biodiversity. Canada had the highest number of relevant documents (n = 127), followed by the U.S.A. (Alaska; n = 116), Fennoscandia (n = 38), Russia (n = 27), and Greenland (n = 5). The number of relevant documents with IK published per year was highest in most recent years, from 2010 onwards, in all geographic regions.Fish represented the highest number of faunal observations with 59 species observed, approximately half of which were Salmonidae (29 species). Local‐scale assessment of fish diversity found observations of the highest number of species (11–25) in Alaska, and individual observations of 6–10 species were found throughout Alaska, mainland areas of Canada, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia. Documented IK also contributed new information on historical fish diversity and indicated local‐scale loss or gain of species. Such information is of vital importance to provide long‐term records of fish composition and abundance, especially when this information does not exist in other knowledge bases such as western science datasets.Indigenous Knowledge included observations of changes in freshwater and terrestrial habitat associated with a warming climate, such as: decreasing water levels and more draining/drying of lakes and rivers, a shorter period of ice cover (late freeze and early break‐up), decreasing ice thickness, and increasing occurrence of permafrost thaw and eroding banks. Such observations by those who actively rely on Arctic freshwater ecosystem services are important because they signify that change is occurring and that action is needed to mitigate the impacts on freshwater habitats and the biodiversity therein.This study demonstrates that previously documented IK provides valuable information towards determining freshwater biodiversity baselines and patterns of change in the circumpolar Arctic. However, these results do not sufficiently cover the depth and breadth of IK on freshwater biodiversity and ecology held by Indigenous communities. Further work incorporating Indigenous worldviews around freshwater ecology would provide context to the knowledge collected and a deeper understanding of Arctic circumpolar freshwater environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuparuk River, located on Alaska's North Slope, is one of the most studied rivers in the Arctic. For nearly 40 seasons, physical, chemical, and biological parameters have been monitored continuously in a 5 km, 4th‐order reach of the river during the short summer season when there is flow in this river. Flow decreases as the tundra begins to refreeze in the late autumn and these streams normally remain frozen until the spring freshet. The monitoring program has supported a 34‐year phosphorus enrichment experiment conducted by the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. Enrichment with phosphorus dramatically changed the structure and function of the primary producer community in the fertilized reach, with cascading effects in higher trophic levels. The datasets generated by this experiment have revealed significant increases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of nitrate and significant decreases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of dissolved organic N and P over time. In this paper, we present an overview of the nutrient concentration, discharge, macroinvertebrate, and Arctic grayling population datasets we have collected. The purposes of these datasets are to track changes resulting from the enrichment experiment, support ancillary research on responses of an Arctic stream to climate warming and permafrost thaw, and to provide input and validation data for models to predict future changes in Arctic streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the value and environmental feasibility of Arctic shipping by reviewing the relevant scientific and economic peer‐reviewed literature. From the physical perspective, this paper examines the impact of climate change on sea ice and marine weather and considers the resultant consequences for Arctic shipping accessibility. From an economic perspective, it reviews the major research investigating the economic feasibility of diverting ships from conventional shipping routes to Arctic routes, the attitudes of shipping stakeholders, and other major factors affecting the prospect of Arctic shipping. This review also identifies important research gaps. Ultimately, we find that the complex environmental and economic dynamics of the Arctic suggest that an appropriate understanding of Arctic shipping will require close collaboration between natural and social scientists. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens many well‐preserved archaeological sites in the Arctic. The paper presents the first Arctic multi‐threat assessment focusing on the Nuuk region of Greenland. The results suggest that the majority of the 336 known archaeological sites are already exposed to impacts from microbial degradation, permafrost thaw and vegetation, and that these impacts will increase over the next 80 years. Additional impacts from coastal erosion are only noted at a limited number of sites due to a predominant consolidated and uplifting coast. The applied methods represent an important first step to identify threatened sites and emphasize important data limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution and composition of Arctic vegetation are expected to shift with ongoing climate change. Global models generally predict northward shifts in high‐latitude ecotones, and analysis of remote sensing data shows widespread greening and changes in vegetation structure across the circumpolar Arctic. However, there are still uncertainties related to the timing of these shifts and variation among different plant functional types. In this paper, we investigate disequilibrium dynamics of green alder and white spruce in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastal Plain, NWT. We used high‐resolution air photographs captured in the 1970s and 2000s to quantify changes in the distribution and abundance of alder and spruce near their northern limits. We found increases in alder and spruce stem density over time, but no change in their range limits, indicating that both species are affected by leading‐edge disequilibrium. Low stand density and temperature limitation of reproduction along the northern margin likely contributed to observed disequilibrium in both species. We also observed the greatest change in species occupancy within a burned area, suggesting that the increased frequency of fire will play a significant role in the timing and magnitude of near‐term vegetation change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The rising costs of climate change merit serious evaluation of potential climate restoration solutions. The highest rate of change in climate is observed in the Arctic where the summer ice is diminishing at an accelerated rate. The loss of Arctic sea ice increases radiative forcing and contributes to global warming. Restoring reflectivity of Arctic ice could be a powerful lever to help in the effort to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Polar ice restoration should be considered in planning of 1.5°C pathways. In this paper, a novel localized surface albedo modification technique is presented that shows promise as a method to increase multiyear ice using reflective floating materials, chosen so as to have low subsidiary environmental impact. Detailed climate modeling studying the climate impact of such a method reveals more than 1.5°C cooler temperatures over a large part of the Arctic when simulating global sea ice albedo modification. In a region north of Barents and Kara Seas temperatures have been reduced by 3°C and in North Canada by almost 1°C. Additionally, there are notable increases in sea ice thickness (20–50 cm Arctic wide) and ice concentration (>15–20% across large parts of central Arctic). These results suggest that the geoengineering technology proposed in this study may be a viable instrument for restoring Arctic ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming and subsequent landscape transformations result in rapid ecological change in Arctic freshwaters. Here we provide a synthesis of the diversity of benthic diatoms, plankton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish in Arctic freshwaters.We developed a multi‐organism measure of α diversity to characterise circumpolar spatial patterns and their environmental correlates, and we assessed ecoregion‐level β diversity for all organism groups across the Arctic.Alpha diversity was lowest at high latitudes and elevations and where dispersal barriers exist. Diversity was positively related to temperature, and both temperature and connectivity limited diversity on high latitude islands. Beta diversity was highly variable among ecoregions for most organism groups, ranging from 0 (complete similarity) to 1 (complete dissimilarity). The high degree of dissimilarity within many ecoregions illustrates the uniqueness of many Arctic freshwater communities.Northward range expansion of freshwater taxa into Arctic regions may lead to increased competition for cold‐stenothermic and cold‐adapted species, and ultimately lead to the extinction of unique Arctic species. Societal responses to predicted impacts include: (1) actions to improve detection of changes (e.g., harmonised monitoring, remote sensing) and engagement with Arctic residents and Indigenous Peoples; and (2) actions to reduce the impact of unwanted changes (e.g., reductions of CO2 emissions, action against the spread of invasive species).Current Arctic freshwater monitoring shows large gaps in spatial coverage, while time series data are scarce. Arctic countries should develop an intensified, long‐term monitoring programme with routine reporting. Such an approach will allow detection of long‐term changes in water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem services of Arctic freshwaters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a rapidly changing Arctic, multiple lines of evidence suggest that bowhead whale migration is changing. To explore these changes further, we used passive acoustic data to examine bowhead whale presence in the western Beaufort Sea (12 years) and Chukchi Plateau (11 years) spanning 2008 to 2022. Departure from the western Beaufort Sea shifted 45 days later over the 12‐year period. Summer presence increased at both sites, suggesting feeding areas within the Chukchi Sea are becoming more favorable. Likewise, findings from the Bering Strait suggest that some whales are remaining north of the Bering Strait for the winter instead of in the Bering Sea. These Pacific Arctic‐wide changes to migration have occurred over only one decade. Questions remain about prey availability in the Chukchi Sea, implications of migratory changes, such as a northward shift in the core overwintering area, and impact to communities south of the Bering Strait. Plain Language Summary: Bowhead whales are an important top predator in the Pacific Arctic. With increasing temperatures and decreasing sea ice, changes are occurring in the migration patterns of this "ecosystem sentinel" throughout the Pacific Arctic. We analyzed passive acoustic data from the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau from 2008 to 2022. Whales are delaying their fall departure from the western Beaufort Sea and spending more time in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau, which, along with increased habitat use on the Chukchi Shelf, suggests that conditions there are becoming more favorable for feeding. Combined with previous data from the Bering Strait, which showed that some whales are spending winter in the southern Chukchi Sea rather than in the northern Bering Sea, these findings suggests that changes are occurring over a short period of time throughout the Pacific Arctic. A northward shift could put bowhead whales in the direct path of ships, especially along the western side of the Chukchi Sea, and impact whaling communities south of the Bering Strait. Key Points: Acoustic data reinforce known delay in bowhead fall departure from the western Beaufort Sea and overwintering in the southern Chukchi SeaIncreased presence in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau suggests these regions are becoming more favorable for bowhead feedingWhales are adapting to a rapidly changing Arctic, but changes and emerging threats may impact them and communities south of Bering Strait [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate‐related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub‐Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck‐affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine‐derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird‐free Arctic ponds—these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird‐derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice‐free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub‐Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Representing mixing state of black carbon (BC) is challenging for global climate models (GCMs). The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) represents aerosols as fully internal mixtures with uniform composition within each aerosol mode, resulting in high degree of internal mixing of BC with non‐BC species and large mass ratio of coating to BC (RBC, the mass ratio of non‐BC species to BC in BC‐containing particles). To improve BC mixing state representation, we coupled a machine learning (ML) model of BC mixing state index trained on particle‐resolved simulations to the CAM6 with MAM4 (MAM4‐ML). In MAM4‐ML, we use RBC to partition accumulation mode particles into two new modes, BC‐free particles and BC‐containing particles. We adjust RBC to make the modeled BC mixing state index (χmode) match the one predicted by the ML model (χML). On a global average, the mass fraction of BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode decreases from 100% (MAM4‐default) to 48% (MAM4‐ML). The globally averaged χmode decreases from 78% (MAM4‐default) to 63% (MAM4‐ML, 19% reduction) and agrees well with χML (66%). The RBC decreases by 52% for accumulation mode and better agrees with observations. The hygroscopicity drops by 9% for BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode, leading to a 20% reduction in the BC activation fraction. The surface BC concentration increases most (6.9%) in the Arctic, and the BC burden increases by 4%, globally. Our study highlights the application of the ML model for improving key aerosol processes in GCMs. Plain Language Summary: Black carbon (BC) mixing state is an important property for assessing impacts of BC on human health and climate. It describes how BC is distributed among the particle population and within individual particles. Due to computational costs, global climate models (GCMs) consider aerosols as either external mixtures (e.g., bulk models) or fully internal mixtures with uniform composition within a certain size range (e.g., an aerosol bin in sectional models or an aerosol mode in modal models). To improve BC mixing state representation, we coupled a machine learning (ML) model learned from particle‐resolved simulations to the online simulations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4‐ML). We used the mass ratio of coating to BC (RBC) to determine the mass fraction of BC‐free particles and BC‐containing particles, and we adjusted RBC to make the modeled BC mixing state match ML model. The MAM4‐ML model reduces the degree of internal mixture of BC substantially. In addition, MAM4‐ML RBC is reduced by 52%, leading to a 20% reduction in BC activation fraction and a 4% increase in BC burden. This study proposes a method for the application of the ML to improve GCMs. Key Points: Machine learning model trained on particle‐resolved simulations has been coupled to CAM6 MAM4 to improve BC mixing state representationThe BC mixing state index is reduced by 19%, and the mass ratio of coating to BC is reduced by 52%, in better agreement with observationsDue to the drop in hygroscopicity of BC‐containing aerosol (9%), BC activation fraction decreased by 20%, and BC burden increased by 4% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced rapid change associated with warming since the 1970s. The rapid retreat of the terrestrial cryosphere can release a large amount greenhouse gas from the permafrost regions into the air, and the sea ice decline will affect the CO2 and CH4 balance in the ocean. Changes in the Arctic provide feedback mechanisms that can also impinge on the global ocean's thermohaline circulation. During the past years, the overall natural processes in the Arctic have been studied although the magnitude and timing of carbon release from the cryosphere changes require further investigation. However, few studies have been conducted to link the natural and social systems in the Arctic. Scientists and policymakers must consider the coupled Arctic land, ocean, and social systems in their decisions for coping with climate change. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming more than twice the global average. The Arctic is connected to the rest of the world through the climate system, it appears to be the first domino to fall, with the other dominoes pointing south. The Arctic science community and the people who live in the Arctic have known the rapid Arctic changes for a long time. It has been recognized that the cryosphere components are declining, and the carbon cycle in both the land and ocean will be affected by the cryosphere shrinkage. Despite some scientific breakthroughs, there are still major knowledge gaps in the Arctic carbon cycle. The policymakers at this stage are not only asking for more data about the Arctic changes, they also need scientific suggestions to cope with Arctic changes. The science community should work together to draw a full picture of the Arctic changes that include both natural and social systems. Key Points: The changing Arctic carbon cycle can affect global climateMore field observation should be carried out in the Arctic land and oceanThe Arctic land, ocean, and social domain should be considered as a system [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐surface wedges of massive ice commonly outline polygons in tundra lowlands, but such polygons have been difficult to identify on hillslopes because soil movement flattens the ridges and infills the troughs that form beside and above the ice wedges. Over the past three decades, the active layer has thickened near the western Arctic coast of Canada and consequent thawing of ice wedges has been detected by remote sensing for flat terrain but not, generally, on hillslopes. Annual field surveys (1996–2018) at the Illisarvik field site of thaw depth and ground surface elevation show the mean subsidence rate above hillslope ice wedges has been up to 32 mm a−1 since thaw depth reached the ice‐wedge tops in 2007. Annual mean ground temperatures at the site are about −3.0°C beneath late‐winter snow depths characteristic of the ice‐wedge troughs but about −5.3°C under conditions of the intervening polygons. The rate of thaw subsidence is high for natural, subaerial disturbances because meltwater from the ice wedges runs off downslope. The rate is constant, because the thickness of seasonally thawed ground above the ice wedges and the ice content of the ground remain the same while the troughs develop. Observations of changes in surface elevation in northern Banks Island between the late 1970s and 2019 show troughs on hillslopes where none was previously visible. Development of these troughs creates regional thermokarst landscapes, distinct from the widely recognized results of thawing relict glacier ice, that are now widespread over Canada's western Arctic coastlands. Recognition of ice‐wedge occurrence and accelerated thaw subsidence on hillslopes is important in the design of infrastructure proposed for construction in rolling permafrost terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increased interest in Arctic environments, mainly due to climate change, has changed the conditions for permafrost research in recent years. This change has been accompanied by a global increase in scientific publications, as well as a trend towards open access publications. We have analyzed abstracts, titles and keywords for publications on permafrost from 1998 to 2017 to identify developments (topics, impact and collaboration) in the field of permafrost research in light of these changes. Furthermore, to understand how scientists build on and are inspired by each other's work, we have (a) developed citation networks from scientific publications on permafrost and (b) conducted an online survey on inspiration in permafrost science. Our results show an almost 400% increase in publications containing the word permafrost in the title, keywords or abstract over the study period, and a strong increase in climate‐change‐related research in terms of publications and citations. Survey respondents (n = 122) find inspiration not only in scientific journal publications, but to a large extent in books and public outreach materials. We argue that this increase in global‐scope issues (i.e., climate change) complementing core permafrost research has provided new incentives for international collaborations and wider communication efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the effects of climate change are becoming more and more pronounced, the Arctic region is attracting renewed attention from politicians, transnational corporations, and environmentalists alike, many of whom are based geographically far from the region itself. Interests span from the prospects of vast oil and mineral riches and shorter international shipping routes, to preserving what is often framed as a fragile, pristine environment. As a resource frontier and a wilderness, but also a homeland and a space of culture to its inhabitants, the Arctic is characterised by potentially conflicting geographical imaginaries and visions of both the present as well as the future of the region. Hence, the political geographies of the Arctic are both messy and complex. This paper examines some of the principal themes and issues of Arctic geopolitics and offers a discussion of how scholars of Political Geography have engaged the topic at a time when an increasing number of academics are directing their analytical gaze towards the North. Focusing on publications from the past decade, it aims to contextualise scholarly debates on Arctic geopolitics and illustrate the complexity and richness of the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite multiple advances in the understanding of the water cycle intensification in a warmer climate, climate models still diverge in their hydrological projections. Here we constrain annual runoff projections over individual and aggregated Arctic river basins. For this purpose, we use two ensembles of global climate models and two statistical methods: a regression scheme assuming similar runoff sensitivities at interannual versus climate change timescales, and a Bayesian method where models are used to derive a posterior runoff response conditioned on historical observations. While both techniques are shown to narrow model uncertainties, more or less substantially depending on rivers, the Bayesian method is less sensitive to the choice of the model ensemble and is more skillful when tested with synthetic observations. It has also been applied over the whole Arctic watershed, showing so far a limited narrowing of the inter‐model spread, but its skill will further improve with increasing climate change. Plain Language Summary: Despite considerable progress in understanding the intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming, projections of changes in the various components of the continental water balance remain highly model‐dependent. This is particularly the case for the evolution of runoff, which remains very sensitive to the way atmospheric and continental processes are represented. Here we evaluate and compare two statistical methods to constrain climate projections of annual runoff at high latitudes via available or synthetic observations. Our Bayesian method, based on historical observations, is found to be more robust than a previous method based on observed interannual climate variability. It underlines the importance of having reliable flow reconstructions to constrain runoff projections and of using empirical observational constraints with caution, as they are likely to lead to over‐confident projections. Key Points: Runoff sensitivity to temperature depends on the considered timescaleObservational constraints based on interannual variability can thus lead to overconfident projectionsObservational constraints based on historical trends can be effective if such trends are driven by human emissions of greenhouse gasses [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming‐driven growth of tall woody vegetation in the Arctic has the potential to accelerate climate change through multiple positive feedbacks. Local‐scale evidence suggests that large herbivores limit this vegetation shift, but there is uncertainty at larger, regional scales whether current herbivory pressure is a major top‐down control on ecosystem structure and functioning. Across a 67,000 km2 region of the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, we integrated satellite remote sensing with a novel data set mapping the migrations of herds comprising 151,000 domesticated reindeer. Where reindeer numbers varied over space, higher reindeer herbivory pressure was consistently linked with lower coverage of tall woody vegetation. Within areas dominated by this vegetation type, productivity and climate were increasingly decoupled where reindeer density was higher. Our spaceborne fingerprint detection suggests that large herbivores, at current population densities, counteract Arctic vegetation responses to climate change over large spatial scales. Plain Language Summary: Large herbivores influence tundra vegetation via their grazing, trampling, and nutrient inputs from feces and urine. However, the extent of these impacts remains unclear as we seek to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climate change. Using maps that we developed that record the annual summertime movements of herds comprising 151,000 domesticated reindeer managed by indigenous Nenets herders, we assessed whether reindeer had an effect on vegetation productivity and composition across a 67,000 km2 region of the Yamal Peninsula in West Siberia, an area about the size of the Republic of Ireland. Analyses of satellite data comparing areas with varying reindeer density consistently showed that higher reindeer herbivory pressure was limiting the coverage of tall woody vegetation and its expansion in response to warming. This effect had not been observed previously at such a large spatial scale and was significant enough to be detected from space. Our findings demonstrate that reindeer have a substantial impact on ecosystem structure and functioning, which likely has implications for the carbon cycle and energy balance within the Arctic and beyond. Key Points: Integrating maps of migrations of indigenous‐managed reindeer herds with remote sensing enabled analysis of large‐scale herbivory impactsAreas on the Yamal Peninsula with higher reindeer herbivory pressure consistently had lower coverage of tall woody vegetationThe productivity of tall woody vegetation was less sensitive to climate variability where reindeer density was higher [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper suggests that the Polar Regions are excellent places for thinking about historical interactions between climate change, science, and politics from the beginning of the Cold War up to the present. Since the second half of the 1940s, science has played a central role in contesting claims to political authority in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Research conducted in the Polar Regions has made a major contribution to the science of climate change on a global scale, and research agendas have been closely connected in the two regions. Viewed from a comparative perspective, however, the historical experiences of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctica have been quite different. Climate research has suggested that warming is generally happening faster over much of the Arctic than the Antarctic. In addition, the recent histories of the two regions show that climate change in the Arctic is destabilizing politics there, whereas in Antarctica climate change is helping to reinforce the existing political structures framed by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). A comparative approach to the history of climate change in the Polar Regions helps to demonstrate that science, politics, and environmental change have each played important roles without making any single factor deterministic. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:145-159. doi: 10.1002/wcc.161 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures and an acceleration of the hydrological cycle due to climate change are increasing river discharge, causing permafrost thaw, glacial melt, and a shift to a groundwater‐dominated system in the Arctic. These changes are funneled to coastal regions of the Arctic Ocean where the implications for the distributions of nutrients and biogeochemical constituents are unclear. In this study, we investigate the impact of terrestrial runoff on marine biogeochemistry in Inuit Nunangat (the Canadian Arctic Archipelago)—a key pathway for transport and modification of waters from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic—using sensitivity experiments from 2002 to 2020 with an ocean model of manganese (Mn). The micronutrient Mn traces terrestrial runoff and the modification of geochemical constituents of runoff during transit. The heterogeneity in Arctic runoff composition creates distinct terrestrial fingerprints of influence in the ocean: continental runoff influences Mn in the southwestern Archipelago, glacial runoff dominates the northeast, and their influence co‐occurs in central Parry Channel. Glacial runoff carries micronutrients southward from Nares Strait in the late summer and may help support longer phytoplankton blooms in the Pikialasorsuaq polynya. Enhanced glacial runoff may increase micronutrients delivered downstream to Baffin Bay, accounting for up to 18% of dissolved Mn fluxes seasonally and 6% annually. These findings highlight how climate induced changes to terrestrial runoff may impact the geochemical composition of the marine environment, and will help to predict the extent of these impacts from ongoing alterations of the Arctic hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: In the Arctic, climate change is expected to increase river flow and alter the composition of river water through permafrost thaw and glacial melt. Many rivers and land areas drain to the coastal Arctic Ocean; the impact of changes to the nutrients carried by river water to these regions are unclear. In this study, we focus on Inuit Nunangat (the Canadian Arctic Archipelago)—a series of shallow channels that connects the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic—and look at where in the ocean the material in the river water ends up and how much of the material travels downstream. We use experiments with an ocean model from 2002 to 2020 and track an element found in river water: manganese (Mn), which is also an important nutrient in the ocean. While continental rivers mainly influence Mn in the southwestern Archipelago, glaciers influence the northeastern Archipelago and supply nutrients to Pikialasorsuaq, one of the Arctic's most biologically active areas. Glaciers can contribute up to 18% to Mn transported downstream of Nares Strait seasonally and 6% yearly. Our findings highlight how climate related changes in the composition of river water impact the marine system of Inuit Nunangat and how these changes can funnel downstream. Key Points: The heterogeneity in Arctic drainage basins creates a north‐south separation in Mn contributions to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago oceanGlacial runoff from Nares Strait supplies micronutrients such as Mn to the Pikialasorsuaq or North Water polynyaChanges in glacial runoff composition in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and northwestern Greenland are conveyed downstream into Baffin Bay [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar amplification of climate change has the potential to cause large‐scale shifts in the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics of Arctic lakes, with implications for fish survival, greenhouse gas production, and drinking water quality. While DO is also a sentinel of environmental changes of physical, chemical, and biological nature (e.g., ice cover, temperature, dissolved organic carbon, photosynthesis, and respiration), no synthesis exists of current knowledge of DO dynamics across the diverse freshwater systems of the Arctic. We thus conducted a systematic review of the literature that yielded DO data from 167 sites north of the Subarctic limit (based on vegetation zones), spanning 76 years and including 40 sites with time series. The compilation revealed insufficient observations for adequate representativeness of oxygen dynamics over Arctic ecosystem gradients. We described the main processes controlling DO budgets of Arctic lakes and tested relationships of summer oxygen depletion with maximum depth and latitude. The meta‐analysis showed that most sites with low O2 concentrations were shallow (<10 m) and situated toward the southern end of the latitudinal gradient. Permanently stratified lakes with deep, perennially anoxic basins were located toward the northern end of the gradient. By way of a conceptual model, we identified the direct and indirect drivers and mechanisms that lead to changes in oxygen budgets in the context of the warming Arctic. This comprehensive update on available data allowed us to suggest future research directions and recommend the use of moored instruments for continuous all‐season observations, combined with modeling, remote sensing, and paleo‐reconstructions. Plain Language Summary: Lakes are dominant features of the Arctic landscape, and they have great cultural and environmental significance. The amplified effects of global warming observed in the Arctic represent a threat to the integrity of these systems. Levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in lake water have implications for fish survival, greenhouse gas production, and drinking water quality. To summarize the state of knowledge about DO in Arctic lakes, we reviewed literature and extracted data from 167 sites. We describe the main processes known to control the oxygen balance and classified the lakes according to their bottom oxygen concentrations during summer. Most lakes that had low oxygen were shallow and situated toward the southern part of our study region. Lakes that never mix, and thus preserve permanent oxygen depletion in their deep waters, were located toward the northern end of the gradient. With a conceptual model, we illustrate how climate change is likely to influence oxygen balance by the way of direct and indirect drivers. We suggest future research directions including the collection of continuous data throughout all seasons, modeling, remote sensing, and studies of sediment cores to reconstruct past conditions. Key Points: Our systematic review located oxygen data in the Arctic from 167 field sites spanning 76 years, including 40 lakes with time‐seriesMeta‐analysis showed that summer oxygen depletion occurred mostly in shallow lakes toward the southern end of the latitudinal gradientWe formulated conceptual models of oxygen sinks and sources relevant to Arctic lakes and their responses to ongoing climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Barmur Group (informally Tjörnes beds) sedimentary succession of northern Iceland is key to reconstructing the opening of the Bering Strait oceanic gateway because these rocks record migration of bivalve molluscs from the Pacific to the Atlantic via the Arctic. However, the timing of the migration event is poorly constrained owing to a lack of reliable absolute ages. To address this problem, we present the first Ar‐Ar radiometric dates from four basaltic lavas that underlie, are intercalated with, and overlie the Barmur Group, and integrate them with existing paleomagnetic records. We show that the Barmur Group has a latest Miocene to early Pliocene age range (c. 6.0–4.4 Ma; C3r–C3n.2n), older than all previous age models. Thus, the Barmur Group does not record the mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period, contra some previous suggestions. Abundant Pacific bivalve molluscs appeared in the Barmur Group during subchrons C3n.4n–C3n.3r at 5.235–4.896 Ma, over 1.3 million years earlier than previously suggested. Appearance of Pacific bivalves in the northern Atlantic occurred shortly after the 5.6–5.4 Ma age previously inferred for first appearance of Arctic bivalves in the Pacific. Thus, our data suggest that first opening of the Bering Strait gateway by the latest Miocene (c. 5.5 Ma) was soon followed by bidirectional trans‐Arctic faunal exchange, and argue against a hypothesized two‐stage faunal exchange process spanning c. 2 million years. Our results also confirm that first opening of the Bering Strait gateway was not directly associated with the growth of large northern hemisphere icesheets, which occurred several million years later. Plain Language Summary: The extent to which global climate change is influenced by the flow of seawater between the world's oceans is an important question in Earth science. Sedimentary rocks from the Tjörnes Peninsula in northern Iceland record the opening of the Bering Strait oceanic gateway, which connects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans via the Arctic. The signature of this gateway opening event is the sudden appearance in Iceland of bivalve mollusc fossils that previously lived only in the Pacific Ocean. However, the timing of their arrival is uncertain owing to the lack of reliable age measurements. To solve this problem, we applied radioisotope dating methods to a succession of rocks called the Barmur Group from the Tjörnes Peninsula. We found that the sudden appearance of Pacific fossils occurred over a million years earlier than previously thought. Our data show that first opening of the Bering Strait gateway was soon followed by migration of marine faunas in both directions, in contrast to the existing hypothesis that Pacific‐to‐Atlantic migration significantly post‐dated Atlantic‐to‐Pacific migration. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that establishment of the Pacific‐Arctic‐Atlantic oceanic connection did not directly trigger development of large northern hemisphere icecaps, which occurred several million years later. Key Points: New Ar‐Ar dating shows a late Miocene to early Pliocene (6.0–4.4 Ma) age range for the Barmur Group (Tjörnes beds), northern IcelandArrival of Pacific bivalves in Iceland is dated at 5.2–4.9 Ma (chrons C3n.4n–C3n.3r), soon after first Bering Strait opening at 5.6–5.4 MaOpening of the Bering Strait gateway did not directly cause the development of large northern hemisphere icecaps [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue of GeoHealth, entitled Rhythms of the Earth: Ecological Calendars and Anticipating the Anthropogenic Climate Crisis, is a transdisciplinary articulation of a methodology of hope to confront the multiple injustices of the Anthropocene. One of the greatest challenges of the climate crisis is the lack of predictability at the scale of communities where impacts are most immediate. Indigenous and rural societies face an ever shifting "new normal" through increasing inconsistency in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, as well as greater frequency of extreme weather events. With global food systems dependent on local and small producers, climatic variability disrupts access to affordable, nutritious, and culturally relevant food. Ecological calendars are context‐specific knowledge systems grounded in a particular cultural milieu and ecological space, that build anticipatory capacity for seasonal change. They measure and give meaning to time. Based on close observation of one's habitat, human societies have used such calendars for hundreds of years and potentially millennia. By engaging with the interactions among physical phenomena (such as the first snowfall or last frost) and biological events (such as blossoming of specific trees, arrival of migratory birds or mammals, appearance of plants or insects), human societies have been able to identify optimal time windows for their livelihood activities. The 11 research articles in Rhythms of the Earth cover a considerable geographical breadth from Africa to the Arctic; and, from North and South America to Central Asia. They provide evidence that spans millennia from the Roman Empire to the contemporary Anthropocene. Key Points: Rhythms of the Earth is a transdisciplinary collaboration between Indigenous Knowledge and ScienceIn Rhythms of the Earth , an innovative culturally and ecologically grounded way to anticipate seasonal change is proposedSignificant diversity of thought from around the world is engaged in Rhythms of the Earth because the research articles are co‐authored by artists, Indigenous community members, and scholars in the biological, physical, and social sciences as well as the humanities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the high Arctic, plant community species composition generally responds slowly to climate warming, whereas less is known about the community functional trait responses and consequences for ecosystem functioning. The slow species turnover and large distribution ranges of many Arctic plant species suggest a significant role of intraspecific trait variability in functional responses to climate change. Here we compare taxonomic and functional community compositional responses to a long‐term (17‐year) warming experiment in Svalbard, Norway, replicated across three major high Arctic habitats shaped by topography and contrasting snow regimes. We observed taxonomic compositional changes in all plant communities over time. Still, responses to experimental warming were minor and most pronounced in the drier habitats with relatively early snowmelt timing and long growing seasons (Cassiope and Dryas heaths). The habitats were clearly separated in functional trait space, defined by 12 size‐ and leaf economics‐related traits, primarily due to interspecific trait variation. Functional traits also responded to experimental warming, most prominently in the Dryas heath and mostly due to intraspecific trait variation. Leaf area and mass increased and leaf δ15N decreased in response to the warming treatment. Intraspecific trait variability ranged between 30% and 71% of the total trait variation, reflecting the functional resilience of those communities, dominated by long‐lived plants, due to either phenotypic plasticity or genotypic variation, which most likely underlies the observed resistance of high Arctic vegetation to climate warming. We further explored the consequences of trait variability for ecosystem functioning by measuring peak season CO2 fluxes. Together, environmental, taxonomic, and functional trait variables explained a large proportion of the variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), which increased when intraspecific trait variation was accounted for. In contrast, even though ecosystem respiration and gross ecosystem production both increased in response to warming across habitats, they were mainly driven by the direct kinetic impacts of temperature on plant physiology and biochemical processes. Our study shows that long‐term experimental warming has a modest but significant effect on plant community functional trait composition and suggests that intraspecific trait variability is a key feature underlying high Arctic ecosystem resistance to climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data‐limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed‐effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual‐level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow‐through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio‐tracked frogs. Water loss (R2 = 0.67) and surface temperature (R2 = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model‐based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi‐aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our limited understanding of millennial‐scale variability in the context of the last glacial period can be explained by the lack of a reliable modeling framework to study abrupt climate changes under realistic glacial backgrounds. In this article, we describe a new set of long‐run Last Glacial Maximum experiments where such climate shifts were triggered by different snapshots of ice‐sheet meltwater derived from the early stages of the last deglaciation. Depending on the location and the magnitude of the forcing, we observe three distinct dynamical regimes and highlight a subtle window of opportunity where the climate can sustain oscillations between cold and warm modes. We identify the Eurasian Arctic and Nordic Seas regions as being most sensitive to meltwater discharge in the context of switching to a cold mode, compared to freshwater fluxes from the Laurentide ice sheets. These cold climates follow a consistent pattern in temperature, sea ice, and convection, and are largely independent from freshwater release as a result of effective AMOC collapse. Warm modes, on the other hand, show more complexity in their response to the regional pattern of the meltwater input, and within them, we observe significant differences linked to the reorganization of deep water formation sites and the subpolar gyre. Broadly, the main characteristics of the oscillations, obtained under full‐glacial conditions with ice‐sheet reconstruction derived meltwater patterns, share similar characteristics with δ18O records of the last glacial period, although our experiment design prevents detailed conclusions from being drawn on whether these represent actual Dansgaard‐Oeschger events. Plain Language Summary: During the last glacial period (115,000–12,000 years before present), the baseline cold climate was continuously disturbed by intense and abrupt climate changes. They completely modified the climate for a few thousand years or so, resulting, for instance, in massive temperature shifts and complete reorganizations of ocean circulation. These abrupt changes have been observed in climate records from the Northern Hemisphere and also can be traced in records from the Southern Hemisphere. Yet, we still do not know what triggers these changes, and often cannot simulate them at the right time under known environmental conditions. In the context of the Last Glacial Maximum, a cold period 21,000 years ago with extensive ice over the Northern Hemisphere, this article analyses a new set of climate model simulations that test the effects of freshwater melting from the ice sheets at different periods of the early deglaciation (∼21,000 to 18,000 years before present). Under some conditions, the resulting experiments displayed an Atlantic Ocean that oscillates between strong and collapsed basin‐wide circulation, causing approximately 10°C of temperature change over Greenland; a behavior that resembles observed abrupt climate changes. Key Points: New set of long‐run Last Glacial Maximum general circulation model experiments showing millennial‐scale variabilityDetailed description of the impact of ice sheet reconstruction‐derived meltwater distributions on abrupt climate changesIntroduction for future studies of the underlying physical processes of abrupt climate changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employing a model democracy in which each model is equally weighted may lead to a poor estimation of the true uncertainty in climate projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The improvement and increase in number of CMIP6 models compared with previous phases of CMIP indicate that both model skill and independence need to be considered to provide convincing projections. In this study, we use a weighting scheme, which weights both the skill and independence of multi‐model simulations, to efficiently constrain the large uncertainty in the projection of the timing of an ice‐free Arctic. The uncertainty‐constrained projections of CMIP6 show that the multi‐model spread of the projected first year of an ice‐free Arctic can be reduced by about 29 years under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)3–7.0 scenario (a regional rivalry scenario), indicating a faster tendency to an ice‐free Arctic summer than projections based solely on model democracy. A fossil‐fuel‐based development scenario (i.e., SSP5‐8.5) leads to an ice‐free Arctic before the 2070s (ranging from 2038 to 2071), while an ice‐free Arctic occurs slightly later (by ∼10 years) under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario (i.e., intermediate scenario) and the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, but is inevitable this century. The sustainable development scenario (i.e., SSP1‐2.6) is likely to prevent the occurrence of an ice‐free Arctic. Internal variability strongly affects the projection estimated by the equally weighted ensemble; however, it has a negligible impact on the results obtained by the weighting scheme, thereby indicating that the results of this study are robust and convincing. Plain Language Summary: Climate models are a key tool used by scientists to estimate climate changes in the future. However, the outputs of such models carry inherent uncertainties that can affect the confidence in projections. These uncertainties may not be appropriately estimated by simple and traditional methods that do not adequately consider the model skill or independence (i.e., similarity to other models). In this study, we found that the uncertainties in Arctic sea‐ice projections can be largely reduced if the outputs of climate models are weighted according to their performance and independence. By doing so, we can increase the level of confidence in estimating the year when the Arctic is likely to see its first ice‐free summer (sea‐ice extent below 1 × 106 km2). It is indicated that a sustainable development scenario may avoid an ice‐free Arctic. In contrast, a fossil‐fuel‐based development scenario will lead to an ice‐free Arctic before the 2070s (ranging from 2038 to 2071); and an ice‐free Arctic will occur slightly later (by ∼10 years) under an intermediate or regional rivalry scenario, but is still inevitable this century. Key Points: The performance and interdependence of climate models may lead to a poor estimation of the true uncertainty in climate projectionsA weighting scheme considering both model skill and independence can reduce the spread in the first year of an ice‐free Arctic by ∼29 yearsThe weighted spread indicates that the first year of an ice‐free Arctic is likely to occur during 2040–2072 under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal variations of the climate of the last millennium provide the context for understanding the recent climate. However, there are few 1000‐year‐long spatiotemporally continuous climate reconstructions at hemispheric to global scales. Here, a millennial, spatiotemporally continuous and annually resolved air temperature dataset for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was reconstructed using paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach based on an expanded tree ring proxy dataset and artificial neural network‐based proxy system models. Verifications show the PDA‐based reconstruction agrees well with instrumental temperature, previous proxy‐based reconstructions and the Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis version 2 (LMRv2) dataset in space and time domains. Since the PDA‐based reconstruction is spatiotemporally continuous fields without missing value over the whole NH, which is a distinct advantage of the PDA‐based reconstruction over other proxy‐based NH‐averaged temperature reconstructions, we focussed on analysing the spatial variations of the NH temperature during the last millennium, for example, the primary modes of temperature variabilities and the spatial variabilities of the NH temperature in three typical climatic epochs of the millennium. Results show that the first‐leading mode (explained variance of 72.50%) of the NH temperature variability is a spatially consistent mode, while the second‐leading mode (explained variance of 10.60%) exhibits a different pattern that is different from the first‐leading empirical orthogonal function mode, particularly in the Arctic, which shows a dipole structure anomaly. The 20th century was the warmest, with 94.17% of the NH displaying positive anomalies. The 11th century was the second warmest century in the record, with 70.26% of the NH showing a positive anomaly. The 19th century was the coldest, with negative anomalies covering 86.97% of the NH. Northwest North America and the Northern Europe‐Barents Sea are two distinctly anomalous centres during these three centuries. Overall, the reconstructed air temperatures provide a new and reliable dataset for studying the millennial NH temperature variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As arctic permafrost continues to thaw, previously inaccessible nitrogen (N) becomes available to N‐limited arctic plants. Increased N availability could enhance plant growth and thereby potentially offset climate‐induced carbon release. Arctic plants can take up newly available permafrost‐N locally upon release. However, in a topographically diverse arctic landscape, permafrost‐N may be transported along hillslopes, away from the point‐of‐release. The extent to which topographical N transport can impact arctic vegetation change depends on whether N is retained locally, captured by downslope recipient plant communities, or transported away.We used stable isotope labelling (15N) to simulate upslope release of ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3−) from thawing permafrost on an arctic hillslope, western Greenland. We tracked the plant species‐specific uptake of simulated permafrost‐released N from the upslope point‐of‐release to the bottom of the slope through 4 years.We found that arctic tundra plants successfully acquired locally released permafrost‐N, even in sloping terrain, and that N was strongly retained in the plant–soil system through multiple years. At the same time, we also importantly demonstrate that permafrost‐N can be transported and taken up by plants up to 30 m downslope from the point‐of‐release. Especially NO3− was more easily redistributed vertically within the soil column compared to NH4+ and therefore potentially more accessible to plants. Specifically, plant species with fast N uptake capacity and deep‐soil foraging strategies may have competitive advantages for capitalising on deep‐soil released and topographically transported permafrost‐N (here exemplified by Equisetum arvense and Salix glauca). Nevertheless, even mosses gained access to permafrost‐N via vertical and lateral redistribution on the slope. Ultimately, the intricate balance between strong local N retention, downslope transport and plant species‐specific uptake strategies may contribute to shaping arctic vegetation change.Synthesis. Across spatially complex arctic ecosystems, arctic plants can take up permafrost‐released N both at the local point‐of‐release and at a considerable distance downslope. The potential for arctic plants to take advantage of topographically transported permafrost‐N could lead to long‐term and landscape‐scale changes in species composition, plant productivity, and ultimately carbon and climate feedbacks across the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the "best" CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step‐like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time. Plain Language Summary: The rate of Arctic warming varied in time, while the rate of global warming was nearly constant over the period 1960–2020. This led to a variable Arctic Amplification (AA) defined as a ratio of the Arctic warming trend to mean global warming trend. In addition, the Arctic experienced sudden changes in the rate of warming with step‐like changes in annual mean Arctic Amplification around the years 1986 and 1999. Climate models do not capture the second observed sharp increase of the AA. We suggest that the first AA increase around 1986 is primarily due to external forcing (increasing concentration of carbon dioxide) while the second sharp increase around 1999 is dominated by internal climate variability which current models cannot capture accurately within the time scale of the physical phenomena. Key Points: Annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) within the period 1970–2020 changed in steep steps around 1986 and 1999. It reached values over 4.0Even those CMIP6 models best at reproducing the AA did not reproduce the second sudden increase near 1999We conjecture that the first AA sharp increase is due to external forcing, while the second is due to internal climate variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding polar amplification (PA) and its underlying processes is key to accurately predicting the climate system's response to increasing anthropogenic forcings. We examine the amplified warming in the Arctic and Antarctic in 17 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) against satellite data. Large hemispheric differences in PA strength was found in the CMIP6 models. Changes in surface temperature and strength of PA is closely coupled to changes in albedo. The planetary albedo of Earth (αp) is partitioned into a component associated with surface albedo (defined as surface contribution to planetary albedo, αsurfp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{surf}}^{p}$), and a component associated with atmospheric albedo (atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo, αatmp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{atm}}^{p}$). To assess the hemispheric differences in PA strengths, the relative importance of αsurfp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{surf}}^{p}$ and αatmp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{atm}}^{p}$ were investigated. The surface reflection looks different as seen at the surface (defined as surface albedo, αsurf) compared to αsurfp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{surf}}^{p}$ (as seen at the top of the atmosphere). We find a stronger correlation between surface temperature and αsurf in the Arctic than in the Antarctic, with correlation coefficients of −0.94 and −0.88, respectively. Interestingly, the correlation for surface temperature and αsurfp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{surf}}^{p}$ is stronger in the Antarctic than in the Arctic with correlation coefficients of −0.93 and −0.90, respectively. In the southern high latitudes, albedo changes at the surface are more important than changes in the atmosphere, while the opposite applies in the northern high latitudes. Surface temperature changes in the low‐ and mid‐latitudes are strongly associated with changes in αatmp ${\alpha }_{\mathit{atm}}^{p}$, dominated by changes in cloud properties. Plain Language Summary: The temperature is increasing faster in high latitudes compared to other regions of Earth. This is known as polar amplification (PA). The amount of light reflected from a surface is called albedo. Using 17 climate models and satellite data, this study compares the effects of albedo from surface and atmosphere on PA. We find a large spread in PA among models, with stronger PA in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Surface albedo looks different when looking from the surface compared to when looking from the top of the atmosphere (TOA), because of the effects from the atmosphere when looking from the TOA. We find greater correlation between surface temperature and albedo at the surface in the Arctic than the Antarctic. Interestingly, from the TOA we see greater correlation between surface temperature and surface albedo in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. We also find that in Antarctica, changes in surface albedo as seen from the TOA are more sensitive to changes in surface temperature than changes in atmospheric albedo are, while the opposite applies in the Arctic. These differences may provide part of the answer to why there is greater PA in the northern than in the southern hemisphere. Key Points: A strong correlation between CO2‐induced temperature change and planetary albedo is found in all regionsThere is a large spread in polar amplification between modelsCorrelation between CO2‐induced temperature change and contribution from surface albedo to total planetary albedo is clear in the Antarctic, but less clear in the Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Bacterial communities form the basis of biogeochemical processes and determine plant growth and health. Mosses harbour diverse bacterial communities that are involved in nitrogen fixation and carbon cycling. Global climate change is causing changes in aboveground plant biomass and shifting species composition in the Arctic, but little is known about the response of moss microbiomes in these environments.Here, we studied the total and potentially active bacterial communities associated with Racomitrium lanuginosum in response to a 20‐yr in situ warming in an Icelandic heathland. We evaluated the effect of warming and warming‐induced shrub expansion on the moss bacterial community composition and diversity, and nifH gene abundance.Warming changed both the total and the potentially active bacterial community structure, while litter abundance only affected the total bacterial community structure. The abundance of nifH genes was negatively affected by litter abundance. We also found shifts in the potentially nitrogen‐fixing community, with Nostoc decreasing and noncyanobacterial diazotrophs increasing in relative abundance.Our data suggest that the moss microbial community and potentially nitrogen fixing taxa will be sensitive to future warming, partly via changes in litter and shrub abundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is among the fastest‐warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan‐Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record‐breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community‐level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short‐term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co‐occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long‐term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long‐term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial–temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea‐ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC‐Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970‐2100. We apply for the first time the Liang‐Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause‐effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea‐surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea‐ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty‐first century. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic has been warming at a larger rate than the rest of the world, resulting in a substantial loss of sea ice since the late 1970s. This has had and will continue to have an impact on our climate and societies. The exact causes of the ongoing sea‐ice loss are not entirely known, and understanding them is important in order to better prepare our societies for future climate changes. In our study, we apply a relatively novel approach that quantifies the cause‐effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We make use of a large range of model simulations performed with the EC‐Earth3 global climate model covering the period 1970‐2100. We find that air temperature, sea‐surface temperature, and the transport of heat by the ocean are important drivers of the ongoing and future retreat of Arctic sea ice. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also affect the three former quantities. Our study demonstrates the performance of causal inference methods in the quest for a better understanding of relationships between climate variables. The geophysical and climate communities could greatly benefit from using these methods more intensively. Key Points: The Liang‐Kleeman rate of information transfer allows quantification of the directional dependence between Arctic sea ice and its driversRecent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea‐surface temperatures and ocean heat transportThe influence of Arctic sea ice on air temperature and ocean heat transport progressively decreases through the twenty‐first century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly increasing air temperatures will alter permafrost conditions across the Arctic, but variation in soils, vegetation, snow conditions, and their effects on ground thermal regime complicate prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that result in the emergence of new surfaces (lake drainage, channel migration, isostatic uplift, etc.) provide an opportunity to assess the factors influencing permafrost aggradation and terrain evolution under a warming climate. In this study we describe ground temperatures, vegetation, and snow and soil conditions at six drained lake basins (DLBs) that have exposed new terrain in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands in the last 20–100 years. We also use one‐dimensional thermal modeling to assess the impact of ecological succession and future climate scenarios on permafrost conditions in historical and future DLBs. Our field observations show that deep snow pack and shallow organic layers at shrub‐dominated DLBs promote increased thaw depth and ground temperatures compared to a sedge‐dominated DLB and two ancient DLB reference sites. Modeling of past and future drainages shows that climate warming projected under RCP 8.5 will reduce rates of permafrost aggradation and thickness, and drive top‐down thaw that could degrade permafrost in shrub‐dominated DLBs by the end of the century. Permafrost at sedge‐dominated sites was more resilient to warming under RCP 8.5, with the onset of top‐down thaw delayed until about 2080. Together, this indicates that the effects of ecological succession on organic soil development and snow drifting will strongly influence the aggradation and resilience of permafrost in DLBs. Our analysis suggests that DLBs and other emergent landscapes will be the first permafrost‐free environments to develop under a warming climate in the continuous permafrost zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fram Strait plays a crucial role in regulating the heat and sea‐ice dynamics in the Arctic. In response to the ongoing global warming, the marine biota of this Arctic gateway is experiencing significant changes with increasing advection of Atlantic species. The footprint of this 'Atlantification' has been identified in isolated observations across the plankton community, but a systematic, multi‐decadal perspective on how regional climate change facilitates the invasion of Atlantic species and affects the ecology of the resident species is lacking. Here we evaluate a series of 51 depth‐resolved plankton profiles collected in the Fram Strait during seven surveys between 1985 and 2015, using planktonic foraminifera as a proxy for changes in both the pelagic community composition and species vertical habitat depth. The time series reveals a progressive shift towards more Atlantic species, occurring independently of changes in local environmental conditions. We conclude that this trend is reflecting higher production of the Atlantic species in the Nordic Seas, from where they are advected into the Fram Strait. At the same time, we observe the ongoing extensive sea‐ice export from the Arctic and associated cooling‐induced decline in density and habitat shoaling of the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba, whereas the resident Neogloboquadrina pachyderma persists. As a result, the planktonic foraminiferal community and vertical structure in the Fram Strait shift to a new state, driven by both remote forcing of the Atlantic invaders and local climatic changes acting on the resident species. The strong summer export of Arctic sea ice has so far buffered larger plankton transformation. We predict that if the sea‐ice export will decrease, the Arctic gateway will experience rapid restructuring of the pelagic community, even in the absence of further warming. Such a large change in the gateway region will likely propagate into the Arctic proper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature‐reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic‐breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and sub‐Arctic lakes in northern Europe are increasingly threatened by climate change, which can affect their biodiversity directly by shifting thermal and hydrological regimes, and indirectly by altering landscape processes and catchment vegetation. Most previous studies of northern lake biodiversity responses to environmental changes have focused on only a single organismal group. Investigations at whole‐lake scales that integrate different habitats and trophic levels are currently rare, but highly necessary for future lake monitoring and management.We analysed spatial biodiversity patterns of 74 sub‐Arctic lakes in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Faroe Islands with monitoring data for at least three biological focal ecosystem components (FECs)—benthic diatoms, macrophytes, phytoplankton, littoral benthic macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, and fish—that covered both pelagic and benthic habitats and multiple trophic levels.We calculated the richnessrelative (i.e. taxon richness of a FEC in the lake divided by the total richness of that FEC in all 74 lakes) and the biodiversity metrics (i.e. taxon richness, inverse Simpson index (diversity), and taxon evenness) of individual FECs using presence–absence and abundance data, respectively. We then investigated whether the FEC richnessrelative and biodiversity metrics were correlated with lake abiotic and geospatial variables. We hypothesised that (1) individual FECs would be more diverse in a warmer and wetter climate (e.g. at lower latitudes and/or elevations), and in hydrobasins with greater forest cover that could enhance the supply of terrestrial organic matter and nutrients that stimulated lake productivity; and (2) patterns in FEC responses would be coupled among trophic levels.Results from redundancy analyses showed that the richnessrelative of phytoplankton, macrophytes, and fish decreased, but those of the intermediate trophic levels (i.e. macroinvertebrates and zooplankton) increased with decreasing latitude and/or elevation. Fish richnessrelative and diversity increased with increasing temporal variation in climate (temperature and/or precipitation), ambient nutrient concentrations (e.g. total nitrogen) in lakes, and woody vegetation (e.g. taiga forest) cover in hydrobasins, whereas taxon richness of macroinvertebrates and zooplankton decreased with increasing temporal variation in climate.The similar patterns detected for richnessrelative of fish, macrophytes, and phytoplankton could be caused by similar responses to the environmental descriptors, and/or the beneficial effects of macrophytes as habitat structure. By creating habitat, macrophytes may increase fish diversity and production, which in turn may promote higher densities and probably more diverse assemblages of phytoplankton through trophic cascades. Lakes with greater fish richnessrelative tended to have greater average richnessrelative among FECs, suggesting that fish are a potential indicator for overall lake biodiversity.Overall, the biodiversity patterns observed along the environmental gradients were trophic‐level specific, indicating that an integrated food‐web perspective may lead to a more holistic understanding of ecosystem biodiversity in future monitoring and management of high‐latitude lakes. In future, monitoring should also focus on collecting more abundance data for fish and lower trophic levels in both benthic and pelagic habitats. This may require more concentrated sampling effort on fewer lakes at smaller spatial scales, while continuing to sample lakes distributed along environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]