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Background: Although anthropogenic climate change poses existential challenges for Indigenous communities in the Arctic, these challenges are not entirely unprecedented. Over many generations, Arctic peoples have developed a wide range of behavioral strategies to navigate environmental change and uncertainty, and these strategies provide a foundation for contemporary adaptation., Aims: In this article, we focus on mixed cash-subsistence economies and the social networks that underlie them in Alaska. The patterns of food production, labor exchange, and food sharing in subsistence-oriented communities throughout Alaska are driven by the productivity of keystone households who regularly harvest and share resources within and between communities., Materials & Methods: Building on previous research suggesting the critical importance of these networks to community resilience, we use network analysis to investigate whether patterns in resource transfers between households are associated with subsistence harvest diversity-the diversity of species harvested by a household unit. We use exponential random graph models to describe the structure of a sharing network from Aniak, Alaska, and model the links between harvest productivity, harvest diversity, and household position in this network., Results: Our results indicate that both productivity and diversity are positively associated with network connections, and that productivity alone provides an incomplete model of network structure., Discussion: We suggest that subsistence harvest diversity may play a unique role in supporting adaptive capacity and resilience by maintaining the productivity of keystone households despite changing environments and sustaining social network structures that circulate resources throughout the community. Harvest diversity may also serve as a broad indicator of Indigenous ecological knowledge and a tangible representation of cultural practices, values, and worldviews that underlie subsistence in Alaska., Conclusion: Greater attention to harvest diversity is important for understanding how subsistence networks adapt to environmental change and uncertainty linked to social and ecological dynamics of anthropogenic climate change., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Abstract: The boreal biome represents approximately one third of the world's forested area and plays an important role in global biogeochemical and energy cycles. Numerous studies in boreal Alaska have concluded that growth of black and white spruce is declining as a result of temperature‐induced drought stress. The combined evidence of declining spruce growth and changes in the fire regime that favor establishment of deciduous tree species has led some investigators to suggest the region may be transitioning from dominance by spruce to dominance by deciduous forests and/or grasslands. Although spruce growth trends have been extensively investigated, few studies have evaluated long‐term radial growth trends of the dominant deciduous species (Alaska paper birch and trembling aspen) and their sensitivity to moisture availability. We used a large and spatially extensive sample of tree cores from interior Alaska to compare long‐term growth trends among contrasting tree species (white and black spruce vs. birch and aspen). All species showed a growth peak in the mid‐1940s, although growth following the peak varied strongly across species. Following an initial decline from the peak, growth of white spruce showed little evidence of a trend, while black spruce and birch growth showed slight growth declines from ~1970 to present. Aspen growth was much more variable than the other species and showed a steep decline from ~1970 to present. Growth of birch, black and white spruce was sensitive to moisture availability throughout most of the tree‐ring chronologies, as evidenced by negative correlations with air temperature and positive correlations with precipitation. However, a positive correlation between previous July precipitation and aspen growth disappeared in recent decades, corresponding with a rise in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella), an herbivorous moth, which may have driven growth to a level not seen since the early 20th century. Our results provide important historical context for recent growth and raise questions regarding competitive interactions among the dominant tree species and exchanges of carbon and energy in the warming climate of interior Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time‐lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high‐frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite‐derived phenology products.However, in remote regions including the high‐latitude Arctic, deploying time‐lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges.Here, we present a novel, low‐power, compact, lightweight time‐lapse camera system, called power‐interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low‐Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology.Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (< −30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground‐based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic have for millennia relied on freshwaters for drinking water and freshwater species that comprise important subsistence harvests, which promotes a strong connection to the land and unique understanding of organisms and ecosystem processes and changes. Despite the importance of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services to Arctic Indigenous communities, there have been limited attempts to summarise available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) regarding Arctic freshwater systems and to understand how conservation can benefit from this knowledge base.This paper presents a systematic review of literature documenting circumpolar Arctic IK with a focus on freshwater biodiversity in Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), Russia, and the U.S.A. (Alaska). Standardised search terms and methodologies were used to locate relevant documents using Google Scholar and Google Advanced search engines. Thematic coding was used to identify freshwater biodiversity themes within the identified documents.Documented IK of freshwater biodiversity was found from all five geographic regions and included data on both species presence and habitat changes with potential to affect biodiversity. Canada had the highest number of relevant documents (n = 127), followed by the U.S.A. (Alaska; n = 116), Fennoscandia (n = 38), Russia (n = 27), and Greenland (n = 5). The number of relevant documents with IK published per year was highest in most recent years, from 2010 onwards, in all geographic regions.Fish represented the highest number of faunal observations with 59 species observed, approximately half of which were Salmonidae (29 species). Local‐scale assessment of fish diversity found observations of the highest number of species (11–25) in Alaska, and individual observations of 6–10 species were found throughout Alaska, mainland areas of Canada, and the Kola Peninsula in Russia. Documented IK also contributed new information on historical fish diversity and indicated local‐scale loss or gain of species. Such information is of vital importance to provide long‐term records of fish composition and abundance, especially when this information does not exist in other knowledge bases such as western science datasets.Indigenous Knowledge included observations of changes in freshwater and terrestrial habitat associated with a warming climate, such as: decreasing water levels and more draining/drying of lakes and rivers, a shorter period of ice cover (late freeze and early break‐up), decreasing ice thickness, and increasing occurrence of permafrost thaw and eroding banks. Such observations by those who actively rely on Arctic freshwater ecosystem services are important because they signify that change is occurring and that action is needed to mitigate the impacts on freshwater habitats and the biodiversity therein.This study demonstrates that previously documented IK provides valuable information towards determining freshwater biodiversity baselines and patterns of change in the circumpolar Arctic. However, these results do not sufficiently cover the depth and breadth of IK on freshwater biodiversity and ecology held by Indigenous communities. Further work incorporating Indigenous worldviews around freshwater ecology would provide context to the knowledge collected and a deeper understanding of Arctic circumpolar freshwater environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long‐term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long‐term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuparuk River, located on Alaska's North Slope, is one of the most studied rivers in the Arctic. For nearly 40 seasons, physical, chemical, and biological parameters have been monitored continuously in a 5 km, 4th‐order reach of the river during the short summer season when there is flow in this river. Flow decreases as the tundra begins to refreeze in the late autumn and these streams normally remain frozen until the spring freshet. The monitoring program has supported a 34‐year phosphorus enrichment experiment conducted by the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. Enrichment with phosphorus dramatically changed the structure and function of the primary producer community in the fertilized reach, with cascading effects in higher trophic levels. The datasets generated by this experiment have revealed significant increases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of nitrate and significant decreases in flow‐weighted mean concentrations of dissolved organic N and P over time. In this paper, we present an overview of the nutrient concentration, discharge, macroinvertebrate, and Arctic grayling population datasets we have collected. The purposes of these datasets are to track changes resulting from the enrichment experiment, support ancillary research on responses of an Arctic stream to climate warming and permafrost thaw, and to provide input and validation data for models to predict future changes in Arctic streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands in Arctic tundra support abundant breeding waterbirds. Wetland types differing in area, depth, vegetation, and invertebrate biomass density may vary in importance to birds, and in vulnerability to climate change. We studied availability and use of different wetland types by prelaying females of four species of sea ducks (Mergini) breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, USA: long‐tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and Steller's (Polysticta stelleri), spectacled (Somateria fischeri), and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis). All four species preferred shallow vegetated wetlands versus deeper lakes. The ducks spent almost all their active time feeding, but their occurrence in different wetland types was not affected by the relative biomass density of known prey or of all invertebrates that we sampled combined. Sea ducks strongly preferred wetlands dominated by emergent and submersed Arctophila fulva over those dominated by the sedge Carex aquatilis, despite the much greater number, total area, and invertebrate biomass density of Carex wetlands. The hens depend heavily on local invertebrate prey for protein to produce eggs; thus, their preference for Arctophila wetlands likely reflects greater accessibility of prey in the near‐surface canopy and detritus of Arctophila. Such shallow wetlands decreased substantially in number (−17%) and area (−30%) over 62 years before 2013 and appear highly susceptible to further declines with climate warming. Impacts on sea ducks of climate‐driven changes in availability of important wetland types will depend on their adaptability in exploiting alternative wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea‐level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25‐km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high‐resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi‐enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble‐median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10‐year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad‐scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change. Plain Language Summary: In the next few decades, coastal flooding is expected to become more frequent due to rising sea levels and changes in storms. To understand and prepare for these changes, we use a global hydrodynamic and multiple climate models to investigate how storm surges (a temporarily rise in water level during a storm) will respond to a warmer climate. These are the first global projections of storm surges based on highly detailed climate models (25–50 km). We compare the model output for recent years (1985–2014) with real‐world weather data, known as reanalysis data, and find a good overall agreement. However, the comparison also shows relatively large differences with larger or smaller values in certain areas. For the future (2021–2050), results show storm surge changes up to 20%. These changes vary around the world. Some areas (Mediterranean, northern Africa, and southern Australia) might experience lower storm surges, whereas other areas (South Australia, Alaska, the northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China, and the Korean Peninsula) might experience higher storm surges. By using advanced computer models as done here, we are able to better understand how climate change could impact coastal area and thus make informed decisions for the future. Key Points: Storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050 based on the Global Tide and Surge Model and a ∼25 km‐resolution High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project climate model ensembleValidation against ERA5 reanalysis (1985–2014) shows that the model performs well globally, but also reveals a clear spatial biasThe median‐ensemble change of the 1 in 10‐year storm surge levels from 2021–2050 compared to 1951–1980 shows changes up to 0.1 m or 20% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mean annual air temperature has been increasing in Alaska since the 1970s and is expected to continue to increase through the current century, resulting in significant environmental changes (e.g., permafrost thaw, shifts in vegetation community composition and distribution, increased wildfire frequency and severity). Because there is little long‐term monitoring data available on lake ecosystems in the subarctic it is difficult to predict how lakes will respond. Here we present data from an ~20‐year long‐term lake and climate monitoring program in Interior Alaska. A significant portion of the lake catchment was burned by wildfires in 1986 and again in 2004. As a result, much of the vegetation in the lake catchment was converted from spruce‐dominated forest to deciduous forest, indicating likely permafrost degradation. At a nearby monitoring site absent of fire effects, mean annual ground temperatures at 50 and 90 cm warmed significantly from about −2°C to about −1°C over the 20‐year monitoring period. Warming of similar or greater magnitude is inferred at the study site due to fire effects. Lake water analyses before and after the 2004 fire show a significant postfire increase in dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorous that persisted for a short period (~3 years) and was followed by small, but significant, increases in specific conductance and ion concentrations. Approximately 15 years postfire sulfate and cation concentrations in the lake increased exponentially due to the development of a groundwater seep near the lake. The seep likely formed as a result of permafrost thaw creating new subsurface flowpaths in response to long‐term climate warming and fire effects. In 2021, specific conductance and sulfate concentrations reached 657 μS/cm and 71 mg/L respectively, exceeding tolerance thresholds of the water lily Nuphar lutea. In 2021, N. lutea beds that had occupied the lake since 1981 were no longer visible. Depending on local catchment characteristics, source waters and flow paths contributing to small subarctic lakes will continue to evolve uniquely in response to climate change and thawing permafrost. This case study shows the cascading effects of warming soil and wildfires on catchment characteristics as well as terrestrial and aquatic vegetation and lake water chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many tree species distribution models use black‐box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species. Location: Continental United States and Canada. Methods: We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term 'optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping' (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer‐scale species climate–terrain niches and non‐linear relationships. Results: Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5‐8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north‐westward for the western species. Conclusion: Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska's Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143-157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00498.x The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate-driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water-rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska's relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long-term resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data‐limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed‐effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual‐level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow‐through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is impacting both the distribution and abundance of vegetation, especially in far northern latitudes. The effects of climate change are different for every plant assemblage and vary heterogeneously in both space and time. Small changes in climate could result in large vegetation responses in sensitive assemblages but weak responses in robust assemblages. But, patterns and mechanisms of sensitivity and robustness are not yet well understood, largely due to a lack of long‐term measurements of climate and vegetation. Fortunately, observations are sometimes available across a broad spatial extent. We develop a novel statistical model for a multivariate response based on unknown cluster‐specific effects and covariances, where cluster labels correspond to sensitivity and robustness. Our approach utilizes a prototype model for cluster membership that offers flexibility while enforcing smoothness in cluster probabilities across sites with similar characteristics. We demonstrate our approach with an application to vegetation abundance in Alaska, USA, in which we leverage the broad spatial extent of the study area as a proxy for unrecorded historical observations. In the context of the application, our approach yields interpretable site‐level cluster labels associated with assemblage‐level sensitivity and robustness without requiring strong a priori assumptions about the drivers of climate sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding dietary nutrient sources is fundamental to conserving sensitive species, especially as climate change alters food web dynamics. Migratory species that depend on both marine and terrestrial habitats face unique challenges, as the locations and quality of resources in the two realms may respond quite differently to environmental changes, with potential for spatial and temporal carryover effects. For sea ducks (Mergini) that winter at sea but move inland to breed, body size may determine their capacity to store nutrient reserves for later use in alternative habitats. We assessed ultimate sources of protein for reproduction in four sea duck species in northern Alaska: smaller‐bodied Long‐tailed Ducks and Steller's Eiders (Clangula hyemalis and Polysticta stelleri), and larger‐bodied Spectacled and King Eiders (Somateria fischeri and Somateria spectabilis). To assess the relative use of local freshwater foods vs. marine protein for both egg production and body maintenance of incubating females, we measured stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in egg membranes, red blood cells, marine and freshwater invertebrates, and vegetation. For egg production, isotope mixing models indicated that proteinaceous egg membranes of all four species were derived mostly (89%–95%) from freshwater foods on the breeding grounds, with broad individual variation in specific prey types selected by the larger species. For incubation, isotopes in red blood cells indicated that body maintenance of females also relied mainly (87%–91%) on freshwater foods in Long‐tailed Ducks and Steller's Eiders. However, incubating Spectacled and King Eiders obtained only about 60% of their protein from freshwater foods and the remainder from marine‐derived body tissues. The latter strategy allows the larger‐bodied species to incubate almost continuously, whereas the smaller species must take more frequent incubation breaks and generally incur higher rates of predation on eggs. Thus, depending on body size, cross‐seasonal effects of feeding conditions in marine habitats may strongly influence population processes well after the birds move to inland nesting sites. Although conservation programs on land and sea are often researched, planned, and administered by different agencies and organizations, our results emphasize the need to coordinate marine and land‐based efforts for species that integrate conditions across both environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black spruce forest communities in boreal Alaska have undergone self‐replacement succession following low‐to‐moderate severity fires for thousands of years. However, recent intensification of interior Alaska's fire regime, particularly deeper burning of the soil organic layer, is leading to shifts to deciduous‐dominated successional pathways, resulting in many socioecological consequences. Both fuel load quantity and quality (or "burnability") influence black spruce plant communities' potential to burn. Even relatively low fuel loads, such as those seen in black spruce forest understory, can be highly influential drivers of fire behavior due to their high flammability. Additionally, black spruce community self‐replacement following fire can be largely attributed to the suite of functional and life history traits possessed by the species dominating these communities. We used fuel load (quantity and quality) and amount of within‐population plant trait variation (coefficient of variation; CV) as community‐level emergent properties to investigate black spruce forest vulnerability and resilience to a changing fire regime across the landscape. Our burn severity potential index (BSPI), calculated from fuel load quantity and quality measurements, indicates that drier, higher elevation stands with thicker active layers were the most vulnerable to fire‐induced vegetation shifts under a changing fire regime. Forest resilience to fire‐induced vegetation shift, represented by higher CV, was negatively associated with BSPI and greatest in ecoregions dominated by lowland black spruce forests. Together, these analyses provide critical information for determining the likelihood of stand‐replacing shifts in dominant vegetation following fire and for implementing appropriate ecosystem management practices. Plain Language Summary: As larger and more severe wildfires occur more often, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the ecological effects of fire and to predict how landscapes may change in the future. To investigate properties of black spruce forest vulnerability and resilience to fire‐induced vegetation changes in interior Alaska, we quantified burn severity potential index and plant trait variation for 28 sites using site‐level measurements of fuel load (organic biomass) and plant traits, respectively. We assessed which black spruce forests, in terms of their location across the landscape, are likely the most vulnerable versus the most resilient to severe burning. We found that two types of black spruce forest plant communities (dry nonacidic upland black spruce and dry acidic upland black spruce lichen woodlands) are most vulnerable to experiencing postfire vegetation shifts and, notably, ∼27% of the landscape in interior Alaska is covered by these forest types. Although more research is necessary to verify that plant trait variation is a broadly useful measure of site resilience to fire, these findings will influence future management practices across interior Alaska's landscapes to minimize the loss of social and ecological values that black spruce forests provide. Key Points: Burn severity potential index was significantly related to burn severity, validating it as an indicator of site vulnerabilityDry nonacidic upland black spruce and dry acidic upland black spruce lichen woodlands are most vulnerable to fire‐induced vegetation shiftsSite‐level coefficient of variation will require further validation as an indicator of forest resilience to severe fire [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By understanding lake ecosystem resilience in the face of increasing environmental and anthropogenic stress, we can hope to anticipate future ecosystem instability. We assess recent historic ecosystem resilience using composition and network analyses of empirical zoobenthos chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae; nonbiting midges) reconstructions from three Subarctic Alaskan lakes, spanning the last c. 200 yr. We measured community richness, turnover and structure using taxon richness, beta diversity, and network skewness, respectively. Simulated taxonomic networks were created to establish the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in taxon connectivity, and to inform the interpretation of empirical chironomid records. The models indicated that beta diversity was more sensitive to taxon loss, while skewness was more sensitive to taxon gain. Both beta diversity and skewness were required to understand structural change under taxon replacement. The simulated arrival of strongly connected taxa caused a greater decrease in skewness than the arrival of weakly connected taxa. The empirical data sets indicated a rise in taxon richness (measured as rarefaction) and beta diversity in the recent samples. Changes in chironomid composition were associated with climate warming (replacement of cold taxa with temperate taxa) and increased lake biological productivity (the arrival of macrophyte‐associated taxa). Skewness was predominantly negative across the lakes, indicating high taxon connectivity and structural stress. However, little directional change in the skewness trends suggests some resilience within the chironomid community structures in relation to the current levels of climate and environmental stress. Continued climatic warming, and associated rises in nutrient levels, may cause further structural stress and ecological degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a significant threat to Arctic freshwater biodiversity, but impacts depend upon the strength of organism response to climate‐related drivers. Currently, there is insufficient knowledge about Arctic freshwater biodiversity patterns to guide assessment, prediction, and management of biodiversity change.As part of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program's first freshwater assessment, we evaluated diversity of diatoms, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish in North American Arctic rivers. Alpha diversity was assessed in relation to temperature, water chemistry, bedrock geology, and glaciation history to identify important environmental correlates. Biotic composition was compared among groups to evaluate response to environmental gradients.Macroinvertebrate α‐diversity declined strongly with increasing latitude from 48°N to 82°N, whereas diatom and fish diversity peaked around 70°N without a clear latitudinal decline. Macroinvertebrate diversity was significantly positively related to air temperature. Diatom diversity was related to bedrock geology and temperature, whereas fish diversity was related to glaciation history.Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages differed between sites in western Canada, where invertebrate composition was more variable, and Alaska, where fish composition was more variable. In sites with both diatom and macroinvertebrate data, diatom composition was distinct in Alaska, where richness was highest in former glacial refugia. Macroinvertebrate composition was distinct in lowest‐latitude eastern and high‐latitude western Canadian sites where temperature was highest.Temperature, precipitation, geology, calcium, and substrate size were important environmental correlates for diatoms and macroinvertebrates, although the relative importance of each correlate differed. Diatom taxa were most strongly associated with water chemistry, whereas benthic invertebrate composition related most strongly to precipitation and temperature.This large‐scale study provides the most substantial integration and analysis of river diatom, macroinvertebrate, and fish data from the North American Arctic to date. Findings suggest that macroinvertebrates will show the strongest response to climate‐related shifts in temperature, whereas diatoms and fish are more likely to respond to climate‐induced shifts in nutrients and hydraulic connectivity. However, significant gaps in data coverage limited our ability to reliably evaluate spatial patterns and detect change. These gaps could be reduced by improving collaborative efforts between the U.S.A. and Canada to harmonise future monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat occurred over Alaska in June–July 2019, posing risks to infrastructure, ecosystem, and human health. It is vital to improve our understanding of the causes of such events and the extent to which anthropogenic forcing may alter their likelihood and magnitude. Here, we use multiple large ensembles of climate models, comprising thousands of simulated years, to investigate these issues. Our results suggest that the presence of anthropogenic radiative forcing increased the likelihood of the 2019 extreme heat event by as much as 6%. Further we show the rate of occurrence of such an extreme heat event is likely to substantially increase in the future with increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. While uncertainty in projected climate risk from model choice leads to a broad range of future extreme heat event probabilities, some models project that with rapidly increasing levels of greenhouse gases the likelihood of such events would exceed 75% by 2090. Plain Language Summary: An extended period of high temperatures across the state of Alaska in June and July, 2019 set multiple temperature records. Here, we examine the extent to which human‐driven climate change played a role in increasing the likelihood of experiencing such an extreme event. Using global climate models, we determine that human‐driven climate change increased the probability of experiencing such high temperatures in 2019, and that the likelihood of similar or more extreme events will increase into the coming century. Key Points: The presence of anthropogenic radiative forcing increased the likelihood of the 2019 extreme heat event by as much as 6%The rate of occurrence of such an extreme heat event is likely to substantially increase in the coming decadesBy the 2060s simulations suggest that such an extreme heat event could occur almost every other year, moving from a rare to a common event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in summer temperatures in Arctic Alaska have led to longer and warmer growing seasons over the last three decades. Corresponding with these changes in climate, the abundance and distributions of geese have increased and expanded over the same period. We used an experimental approach to assess the response of goose forage plants to simulated environmental change. We subjected Carex subspathacea, a preferred goose forage growing on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, to manipulations of temperature and timing of spring thaw to measure potential effects in terms of plant nitrogen concentration, aboveground biomass, and total nitrogen availability. Carex subspathacea responded to warming in a dynamic fashion. Increases in temperature led to decreases in leaf nitrogen concentration but increases in aboveground biomass. The increase in biomass was stronger than the decline in nitrogen concentration such that total nitrogen availability was increased with temperature for the first 35–40 d of the season. Grazing removal accounted for only minimal offtake of biomass, and we found no indication that grazing maintained elevated levels of nitrogen concentration longer in the season as reported in other studies. Based on demonstrated relationships in the literature between forage nitrogen concentrations and gosling growth rates, we conclude that there is currently abundant high‐quality forage available across the ACP. This finding fits with recent evidence of high gosling growth rates and increasing trends in goose abundance on the ACP. Our results suggest that with climate warming of a few degrees, nitrogen concentration of forage may decrease, but forage biomass and total nitrogen availability will increase. Our data suggest that nitrogen concentration will not fall below the minimum threshold required by geese in the near future. As such, we suggest that there is currently no bottom‐up limitation to goose numbers on the ACP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data‐sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one‐dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13‐year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five‐year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight‐year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non‐stationary climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future warming may alter plant stress at high‐elevation treelines and forests, thereby changing plant–plant interactions. The relative importance of competition and facilitation may depend on the degree of resource or physical stress. According to the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), physical stress on trees is more important at cold high elevations where facilitation predominates, and less important at low elevations where competition is the main interaction. Our goals were to investigate whether plant–plant interactions along elevational gradients corresponded to those predicted by the SGH, and to assess the effects of increasing temperatures on the growth of conifer seedlings in tundra–forest ecosystems in interior Alaska, USA. We established sites along two elevational gradients: one in tundra (four sites, 550–1170 m) and one in forest (three sites, 210–760 m). A field warming and neighbor removal experiment was conducted using transplanted seedlings of white spruce (Picea glauca). After three growing seasons, regardless of elevation, spruce seedling biomass was approximately 20% lower in seedlings with neighbor plants compared to those without neighbors. Therefore, there was no evidence for greater facilitation at high elevations across either tundra or forest elevational gradient. Seedlings in forest sites increased their shoot‐to‐root ratios and relative growth rates in height, suggesting competition for light, but this was not seen for seedlings growing in tundra sites. When warmed by greenhouses, seedling growth was stimulated in forests, especially at high elevations. In contrast, at tundra sites, warmed seedlings grew less than controls and the seedlings at high elevations showed water stress. Our results suggest that the resource stresses of low light and water availability are more important drivers of plant–plant interactions than the physical stress imposed by low temperature, possibly due to warming in the past 50 yr in this region. Further warming may increase growth of seedlings in forests, but is likely to decrease it in open tundra habitats, thereby slowing the upward movement of treeline in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global rise in temperature and associated changes in climate have led to decline of forests around the globe, across multiple species and ecosystems. Yellow‐cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) decline is one of the most severe in North America. We found abundant evidence of tree decline and mortality on Haida Gwaii across multiple watersheds and over a range of elevations. This decline on Haida Gwaii parallels the broader yellow‐cedar decline in terms of spatial distribution, symptoms, magnitude, and timing. However, Haida Gwaii has a more temperate climate and ephemeral snowpack than declining yellow‐cedar forests in Alaska where the link to climate was first uncovered. Given these important differences, we investigated several possible drivers both at the local and at the regional scale, using population demography, dendrochronology, and daily weather data. We explored stand dynamics as a driver and tested the known link to climate. Our results are inconsistent with stand dynamics as a driver of elevated decline and mortality. Neither increased competition nor aging of a cohort explains the decline. Alternatively, the magnitude and timing of the decline are consistent with well‐documented long‐term directional trends in regional climate. Onset of basal area increment decline and mortality have been accumulating over time, with increased rates since the 1980s. Our sites were located at the edge of the expected range of mortality, and we found only four thaw–freeze events over the past ~80 yrs. However, superposed epoch analysis using daily weather data revealed that mortality and onset of decline events were associated with warmer winter conditions, consistent with the drivers from Alaska. Rather than isolated extreme thaw–freeze events, warmer winter temperatures on Haida Gwaii may mean less cold hardening throughout the winter, which exposes yellow‐cedar's fine roots to varying degrees of freezing damage over multiple winter thaw–freeze cycles, causing physiological stress, tree decline, and eventual death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is driving worldwide shifts in the distribution of biodiversity, and fundamental changes to global avian migrations. Some arctic‐nesting species may shorten their migration distance as warmer temperatures allow them to winter closer to their high‐latitude breeding grounds. However, such decisions are not without risks, since this intensifies pressure on resources when they are used for greater periods of time. In this study, we used an individual‐based model to predict how future changes in food abundance, winter ice coverage, and human disturbance could impact an Arctic/sub‐Arctic breeding goose species, black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans, Lawrence 1846), and their primary food source, common eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), at the Izembek Lagoon complex in southwest Alaska. Brant use the site during fall and spring migrations, and increasingly, for the duration of winter. The model was validated by comparing predictions to empirical observations of proportion of geese surviving, proportion of geese emigrating, mean duration of stay, mean rate of mass gain/loss, percentage of time spent feeding, number of bird days, peak population numbers, and distribution across the complex. The model predicted that reductions >50% of the current decadal (2007–2015) mean of eelgrass biomass, which have been observed in some years, or increases in the number of brant, could lead to a reduction in the proportion of birds that successfully migrate to their breeding grounds from the site. The model also predicted that access to eelgrass in lagoons other than Izembek was critical for overwinter survival and spring migration of brant, if overall eelgrass biomass was 50% of the decadal mean biomass. Geese were typically predicted to be more vulnerable to environmental change during winter and spring, when eelgrass biomass is lower, and thermoregulatory costs for the geese are higher than in fall. We discuss the consequences of these predictions for goose population trends in the face of natural and human drivers of change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and natural disturbances are catalysing forest transitions to different vegetation types, but whether these new communities are resilient alternate states that will persist for decades to centuries is not known. Here, we test how changing climate, disturbance and biotic interactions shape the long‐term fate of a deciduous broadleaf forest type that replaces black spruce after severe wildfires in interior Alaska, USA.We simulated postfire deciduous forest that replaced black spruce after severe fires in 2004 for tens to hundreds of years under different climate scenarios (contemporary, mid 21st century, late 21st century), fire return intervals (11–250 years), distances to seed source (50–1,000 m) and browsing intensities (background, moderate, chronic). We identified combinations of conditions where deciduous forest remained the dominant vegetation type and combinations where it returned to black spruce forest, transitioned to mixed forest (where deciduous species and black spruce co‐dominate) or converted to nonforest.Deciduous forest persisted in 86% of simulations and was most resilient if fire return intervals were short (≤50 years). When transitions to another vegetation type occurred, mixed forest was most common, particularly when fire return intervals were long (>50 years) and the nearest seed source was 500 m or farther. Moderate and chronic browsing also reduced deciduous sapling growth and survival, helping black spruce compete if fire return intervals were long and seed source was distant. Dry soils occasionally caused conversion to nonforest following short‐interval fire when simulations were forced with a late 21st‐century climate scenario that projects warming and increased vapor pressure deficit. Return to black spruce forest almost never occurred.Synthesis. Conversion from black spruce to deciduous forest is already underway at regional scales in interior Alaska, and similar transitions have been widely observed throughout the North American boreal biome. We show that this boreal deciduous forest type is likely a resilient alternate state that will persist through the 21st century, which is important, because future vegetation outcomes will shape biophysical feedbacks to regional climate and influence subsequent disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessments of climate‐change effects on ecosystem processes and services in high‐latitude regions are hindered by a lack of decision‐support tools capable of forecasting possible future landscapes. We describe a collaborative effort to develop and apply the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and northwestern Canada to explore how climate change influences interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost integrity, hydrology, and vegetation, and how these dynamics in turn influence resource management decisions. This process emphasizes co‐production of knowledge among decision makers, scientists, major funders, partners, and stakeholders. We highlight research findings based on IEM applications in Arctic Alaska, as well as successes and challenges of the co‐production process. The overall framework and lessons from our work with the IEM are relevant to other collaborative efforts outside the Arctic that aim to develop a decision‐support tool or an undertaking of equivalent scope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To evaluate current and future dynamics of 25 tree species spanning United States and Canada. Location: United States and Canada. Methods: We combine, for the first time, the species compositions from relative importance derived from the USA's Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) with gridded estimates based on Canada's National Forest Inventory (NFI‐kNN))‐based photo plot data to evaluate future habitats and colonization potentials for 25 tree species. Using 21 climatic variables under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, we model climatic habitat suitability (HQ) within a consensus‐based multimodel ensemble regression approach. A migration model is used to assess colonization likelihoods (CL) for ~100 years and combined with HQ to evaluate the various combinations of HQ + CL outcomes for the 25 species. Results: At a continental scale, many species in the conterminous United States lose suitable climatic habitat (especially under RCP 8.5) while Canada and USA's Alaska gain climate habitat. For most species, even under optimistic migration rates, only a small portion of overall future suitable habitat is projected to be naturally colonized in ~100 years, although considerable variation exists among species. Main conclusions: For the species examined here, habitat losses were primarily experienced along southern range limits, while habitat gains were associated with northern range limits (especially under RCP 8.5). However, for many species, southern range limits are projected to remain relatively intact, albeit with reduced habitat quality. Our models predict that only a small portion of the climatic habitat generated by climate change will be colonized naturally by the end of the current century—even with optimistic tree migration rates. However, considerable variation among species points to the need for significant management efforts, including assisted migration, for economic or ecological reasons. Our work highlights the need to employ range‐wide data, evaluate colonization potentials and enhance cross‐border collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site‐specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non‐growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103–104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model‐based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global‐change‐related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate–shrub–moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall‐shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variation in thermal conditions are important dimensions of aquatic landscapes, yet we do not understand how this heterogeneity will respond to climate change. Snowpack in many regions is declining but impacts on aquatic thermal regimes remain poorly understood. Our analyses of summer stream temperatures across a complex river basin in southwest Alaska show that loss of snowpack has disproportionate effects on water temperatures in streams that are cold under typical conditions, thereby homogenizing stream temperatures across the landscape during low snow conditions. Streams draining steep watersheds warmed from a summer average of 4–8°C between high and low snow years and became more responsive to variation in regional air temperature (as proxy for solar radiation), while streams draining flat watersheds changed negligibly. Our results suggest that conservation strategies for aquatic landscapes that focus on snow‐dominated cold‐water refugia may not be robust to future climate warming and changes in snowpack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early archaeological record of Beringia is complicated by the occurrence of several lithic industries. Site assemblages, dating from 14,000 to 12,800 years ago and located from the Yana‐Indigirka Lowlands of Siberia to the upper Tanana River basin, contain artifacts characteristic of the Nenana technological complex. After 12,800 years ago, site assemblages contain artifacts diagnostic of the Denali technocomplex. To explain the variation in lithic industries, we first and foremost need well‐stratified and well‐dated sites with multiple components so we securely know their ages and depositional relationships. We present excavation results of one such site located in interior Alaska, Owl Ridge, with the goal of assessing site stratigraphy, radiocarbon chronology, and natural site formation processes. Owl Ridge was visited three times during the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition with a Nenana‐complex occupation at 13,380–12,800 years ago followed by two Denali‐complex occupations at 12,540–11,430 years ago and 11,270–11,200 years ago. Assemblage change at Owl Ridge was diachronically patterned, as at the nearby Dry Creek archaeological site, and separated by two climatic events, a brief extremely windy Younger Dryas (lasting 300–250 years) and a very brief wetter period (lasting ~160 years). Our results indicate these climate and environmental conditions played a role in settlement of eastern Beringia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of novel and disappeared climates between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the present is important to consider to understand the expansion and contraction of species niches and distributions, as well as the formation and loss of communities and ecological interactions over time. Our choice in climate data resolution has the potential to complicate predictions of the ecological impacts of climate change, since climate varies from local to global scales and this spatial variation is reflected in climate data. To address this issue, we downscaled LGM and modern (1975–2005) 30‐year averaged climate data to 60‐m resolution for the entire state of Alaska for 10 different climate variables, and then upsampled each variable to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km). We modeled the distributions of novel and disappeared climates to evaluate the locations and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates for each of our climate variables and resolutions. Generally, novel and disappeared climates were located in southern Alaska, although there were cases where some disappeared climates existed within coastal and interior Alaska. Climate resolution affected the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates in three patterns: As the spatial resolution of climate became coarser, the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates (a) increased, (b) decreased, or (c) had no explainable relationship. Overall, we found the use of coarser climate data increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates due to decreased environmental variability and removal of climate extremes. Our results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse climate data and suggest that studies analyzing the effects of climate change on ecosystems may overestimate or underestimate their conclusions when utilizing coarse climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well‐documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7‐year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic‐breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2–10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap−1 day−1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%–54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4‐year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long‐term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative growth response of North American boreal forest trees to warm summers is well documented and the constraint of competition on tree growth widely reported, but the potential interaction between climate and competition in the boreal forest is not well studied. Because competition may amplify or mute tree climate‐growth responses, understanding the role current forest structure plays in tree growth responses to climate is critical in assessing and managing future forest productivity in a warming climate. Using white spruce tree ring and carbon isotope data from a long‐term vegetation monitoring program in Denali National Park and Preserve, we investigated the hypotheses that (a) competition and site moisture characteristics mediate white spruce radial growth response to climate and (b) moisture limitation is the mechanism for reduced growth. We further examined the impact of large reproductive events (mast years) on white spruce radial growth and stomatal regulation. We found that competition and site moisture characteristics mediated white spruce climate‐growth response. The negative radial growth response to warm and dry early‐ to mid‐summer and dry late summer conditions intensified in high competition stands and in areas receiving high potential solar radiation. Discrimination against 13C was reduced in warm, dry summers and further diminished on south‐facing hillslopes and in high competition stands, but was unaffected by climate in open floodplain stands, supporting the hypothesis that competition for moisture limits growth. Finally, during mast years, we found a shift in current year's carbon resources from radial growth to reproduction, reduced 13C discrimination, and increased intrinsic water‐use efficiency. Our findings highlight the importance of temporally variable and confounded factors, such as forest structure and climate, on the observed climate‐growth response of white spruce. Thus, white spruce growth trends and productivity in a warming climate will likely depend on landscape position and current forest structure. Using tree ring and carbon isotopes data from Denali National Park and Preserve, we investigated whether competition and site moisture characteristics mediate white spruce radial growth response to climate. We found competition and solar radiation mediate the influence of climate on the radial growth. Our carbon isotope analysis suggests the mechanism behind these modified climate‐growth responses is increased competition for moisture in high basal area stands and dry sites. Overall, our results suggest dynamic growth responses to future climate change that are dependent on landscape position and stand competition and likely to result in feedbacks on forest structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km2) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions. Arctic and boreal landscapes have experienced unprecedented changes in recent decades that have significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite a legacy of studies that have documented the heightened sensitivity of northern landscapes to change, characterization and prognosis of ecosystem change has remained elusive. Here, we combine remote sensing and climate reanalysis data into an integrated modeling framework to fingerprint the historical (1984–2015) sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to changing environmental conditions and disturbances. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of the historical and potential future trajectories of change in Alaska, with direct relevance to other northern high‐latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Winters are limiting for many terrestrial animals due to energy deficits brought on by resource scarcity and the increased metabolic costs of thermoregulation and traveling through snow. A better understanding of how animals respond to snow conditions is needed to predict the impacts of climate change on wildlife. We compared the performance of remotely sensed and modeled snow products as predictors of winter movements at multiple spatial and temporal scales using a data set of 20,544 locations from 30 GPS‐collared Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA from 2005 to 2008. We used daily 500‐m MODIS normalized difference snow index (NDSI), and multi‐resolution snow depth and density outputs from a snowpack evolution model (SnowModel), as covariates in step selection functions. We predicted that modeled snow depth would perform best across all scales of selection due to more informative spatiotemporal variation and relevance to animal movement. Our results indicated that adding any of the evaluated snow metrics substantially improved model performance and helped characterize winter Dall sheep movements. As expected, SnowModel‐simulated snow depth outperformed NDSI at fine‐to‐moderate scales of selection (step scales < 112 h). At the finest scale, Dall sheep selected for snow depths below mean chest height (<54 cm) when in low‐density snows (100 kg/m3), which may have facilitated access to ground forage and reduced energy expenditure while traveling. However, sheep selected for higher snow densities (>300 kg/m3) at snow depths above chest height, which likely further reduced energy expenditure by limiting hoof penetration in deeper snows. At moderate‐to‐coarse scales (112–896 h step scales), however, NDSI was the best‐performing snow covariate. Thus, the use of publicly available, remotely sensed, snow cover products can substantially improve models of animal movement, particularly in cases where movement distances exceed the MODIS 500‐m grid threshold. However, remote sensing products may require substantial data thinning due to cloud cover, potentially limiting its power in cases where complex models are necessary. Snowpack evolution models such as SnowModel offer users increased flexibility at the expense of added complexity, but can provide critical insights into fine‐scale responses to rapidly changing snow properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950–2009) and a projection period (2010–2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10−3 W/m2. The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010–2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5–70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10–30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO2, increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO2) saturates as CO2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km2, an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1‐km resolution for the historical period (1950–2009) and future projection period (2010–2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5,556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO2 and biogenic methane (CH4) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO2 emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 Tg C/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO2 fertilization (~5% per 100 parts per million by volume increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO2 sequestration offset the increase in CH4 emissions during the 21st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO2 because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH4 emissions to increases in soil temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site‐level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south‐central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect‐related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early‐successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (−6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO2, we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially extensive Arctic stable isotope data are sparse, inhibiting the climatic understanding required to interpret paleoclimate proxy records. To fill this need, we constrained the climatic and physiographic controls on δ18O and δD values of stream waters across Alaska and the Yukon to derive interpolated isoscape maps. δ18O is strongly correlated to winter temperature parameters and similarity of the surface water line (δ2H = 8.0 × δ18O + 6.4) to the Global Meteoric Water Line suggests stream waters are a proxy for meteoric precipitation. We observe extreme orographic δ18O decreases and a trans-Alaskan continental gradient of −8.3‰ 1000 km−1. Continental gradients are high in coastal zones and low in the interior. Localized δ18O increases indicate inland air mass penetration via topographic lows. Using observed δ18O/temperature gradients, we show that δ18O decreases in a ∼24 ka permafrost ice wedge relative to the late Holocene indicate mean annual and coldest quarter temperature reductions of 8.9 ± 1.7°C and 17.2 ± 3.2°C, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We remeasured a classic chronosequence study in the subalpine zone of the Alaska Range to evaluate how plant community attributes have changed across a set of different-aged terraces over a 54-yr period (1958-2012). Our work focused on whether the tempo and trajectory of successional development described in the original study have changed over this period during which summer temperatures warmed by approximately 2°C. Our work revealed a rapid increase in the distribution, stature, and abundance of balsam poplar trees that was unanticipated in the original successional model alongside evidence that established late-successional plant communities have changed relatively little over the same time period. The spatial distribution of poplar expansion was both directional and highly variable, with greater expansion occurring in sites that were young surfaces in 1958, or else were disturbed during the intervening period. We present evidence that early successional environments in this region may be particularly susceptible to rapid alteration stimulated by climate warming that has allowed tree establishment and growth in subalpine areas. Sparsely vegetated sites allow for invasion or expansion of some species to be quickly realized because there is less resistance from competition with established vegetation, including mosses that insulate and paludify the soil. We suggest that established vegetation communities may have physical characteristics (such as cold and/or acidic soil profiles) that are inimical to the establishment of balsam poplar and may also be a source of competitive inertia, conferring a measure of resistance to directional changes in the landscape mosaic. However, when an early successional species has traits that allow it to persist and fundamentally alter the vegetation mosaic over time, as is the case with balsam poplar, it may serve as the leading edge of compositional changes with profound consequences. Our results highlight the capacity of a single species to catalyze the changes that may eventually lead to the altering of an entire landscape mosaic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compute the effects on the Alaska economy of reduced pollock harvests from rising sea surface temperature using a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model coupled with a stochastic stock-yield projection model for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock. We show that the effects of decreased pollock harvest are offset to some extent by increased pollock price, and that fuel costs and the world demand for the fish, as well as the reduced supply of the fish from rising sea surface temperature, are also important factors that determine the economic and welfare effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical and biological responses to rapid arctic warming are proving acute, and as such, there is a need to monitor, understand, and predict ecological responses over large spatial and temporal scales. The use of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired from airborne and satellite sensors addresses this need, as it is widely used as a tool for detecting and quantifying spatial and temporal dynamics of tundra vegetation cover, productivity, and phenology. Such extensive use of the NDVI to quantify vegetation characteristics suggests that it may be similarly applied to characterizing primary and secondary consumer communities. Here, we develop empirical models to predict canopy arthropod biomass with canopy-level measurements of the NDVI both across and within distinct tundra vegetation communities over four growing seasons in the Arctic Foothills region of the Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. When canopy arthropod biomass is predicted with the NDVI across all four growing seasons, our overall model that includes all four vegetation communities explains 63% of the variance in canopy arthropod biomass, whereas our models specific to each of the four vegetation communities explain 74% (moist tussock tundra), 82% (erect shrub tundra), 84% (riparian shrub tundra), and 87% (dwarf shrub tundra) of the observed variation in canopy arthropod biomass. our field-based study suggests that measurements of the NDVI made from air- and spaceborne sensors may be able to quantify spatial and temporal variation in canopy arthropod biomass at landscape to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Boreal wetlands hold vast stocks of soil carbon (C), which may be vulnerable to changes in climate. In southcentral Alaska, wetlands of the Kenai Lowlands have experienced a warming and drying trend that has led to woody vegetation encroachment into herbaceous wetlands. We examined whether predicted higher rates of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) would be offset by higher rates of ecosystem respiration (ER) in woody wetland communities. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in four communities along a hydrologic and vegetation gradient during (1) a warm and dry growing season, (2) a more typical cool and wet growing season and (3) the intervening winter. We fit simple GEP and ER models to our data and estimated annual NEE for each community using hourly measurements of photosynthetically active radiation and air temperature. We found that woody communities exhibited greater GEP than herbaceous communities under cool and moist conditions, but more similar GEP under warm and dry conditions. Woody communities also showed greater ER than herbaceous communities during all seasons, outpacing GEP during the warm and dry growing season. On an annual basis, we estimated that herbaceous communities were either net sinks or approximately CO2 neutral, ranging from −132·8 to 4·7 g CO2-C m−2 y−1. In contrast, woody communities were sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, ranging from 78·8 to 181·7 g CO2-C m−2 y−1. Our results suggest that the initial encroachment of woody vegetation into herbaceous wetlands will lead to a substantial loss of C, particularly if conditions continue to become warmer and drier. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both genetic and plastic traits contribute to adaptation in novel environments. Phenotypic plasticity can facilitate adaptation by allowing for existence in a wider range of conditions and a faster response to environmental change than gene-based selection. Coastrange sculpins ( Cottus aleuticus) colonize new and variable streams arising in the wake of receding glaciers in south-east Alaska, and substrate-matching plasticity may enhance colonization success by reducing detection by visual predators. As part of a long-term study of the fitness consequences of colour plasticity and its capacity to respond to both positive and negative selection, we investigated whether it is heritable and costly. We raised full-sib broods of sculpins in the laboratory: one half of each brood was raised in white containers, the other half in black. After 4 months, we digitally analysed their colour and found significant but weak heritability in both baseline colour and colour plasticity. To investigate the cost of colour plasticity, we compared the growth and mortality rates of juvenile sculpins reared under constant substrate colours to those reared on substrates that changed colour frequently, and compared growth rates among sculpin that differed in their colour change ability. We found evidence of small costs of plasticity, consistent with other studies of natural populations. Evidence of heritable genetic variation for plasticity and small costs to its maintenance and expression contributes to explanations of how plasticity is variable and persistent among wild populations and underscores its ability to respond both positively and negatively to selection in variable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an increased volume of melt on many of the world's glaciers, study of how meltwater affects the properties of glacial snowpack becomes essential to our understanding of how glaciers will respond to climate change. We address this problem by studying how snow properties changed on sub-daily timescales on the Kahiltna Glacier, Alaska, between May 26 and June 10, 2010. During this period, we dug 1.8-m-deep snow pits twice daily to record the stratigraphy of melt layers, snow hardness, grain size, and density and sampled for hydrogen isotopic composition (δD) on four occasions. From these data, we show that 65% of the melted surface snow infiltrates and refreezes in the snowpack. This leads to a densification of the snow, a 729% increase in volume of melt layers, and a homogenization of isotopic and physical snow properties. From visual and stratigraphic observations, we show that meltwater flow within the snowpack is conducted primarily along lenses and pipes, where melt layers later form, but that more homogeneous capillary-based flow is also important. Finally, we show using isotope ratios that post-depositional alteration is exacerbated with increased melt extent, using the δD profile below a volcanic ash layer as a case study. In the future, similar studies would benefit from this high-frequency monitoring approach to assessing snowpack evolution, as it allows for a greater understanding of short duration processes. New directions for study would include longer-term monitoring efforts over a wider spatial snow pit network. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-latitude regions store large amounts of organic carbon (OC) in active-layer soils and permafrost, accounting for nearly half of the global belowground OC pool. In the boreal region, recent warming has promoted changes in the fire regime, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and alter soil OC dynamics in both organic and mineral soil. We examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil OC accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near-surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska. To estimate OC accumulation rates, we used chronosequence, radiocarbon, and modeling approaches. We also developed a simple model to track long-term changes in soil OC stocks over past fire cycles and to evaluate the response of OC stocks to future changes in the fire regime. Our chronosequence and radiocarbon data indicate that OC turnover varies with soil depth, with fastest turnover occurring in shallow organic horizons (∼60 years) and slowest turnover in near-surface permafrost (>3000 years). Modeling analysis indicates that OC accumulation in organic horizons was strongly governed by carbon losses via combustion and burial of charred remains in deep organic horizons. OC accumulation in mineral soil was influenced by active layer depth, which determined the proportion of mineral OC in a thawed or frozen state and thus, determined loss rates via decomposition. Our model results suggest that future changes in fire regime will result in substantial reductions in OC stocks, largely from the deep organic horizon. Additional OC losses will result from fire-induced thawing of near-surface permafrost. From these findings, we conclude that the vulnerability of deep OC stocks to future warming is closely linked to the sensitivity of permafrost to wildfire disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]