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West Dongting Lake in China is important for human livelihoods and habitat of migratory waterfowl and other wildlife. The waterway re‐engineering and agriculture intensification have contributed to changes in hydrology, sediment, and vegetation on the floodplain. This paper describes an EcoPartnership program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, and Beijing Forestry University. It focused on the development of a wetland ecosystem network in West Dongting Lake with technical support from the U.S. partner using a number of related studies to examine wetland vegetation dynamics from upstream to downstream along the tributaries. The results of U.S. studies showed that the regeneration potential of species might be altered by changes in climate and local environment, and seed bank depletion by germination may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts in swamps of the southeastern United States. In the monsoonal wetlands of West Dongting Lake, the soil seed bank could be used as a seed source for revegetation after hydrologic restoration with the introduction of certain foundational species and the removal of poplar plantations. Also, West Dongting Lake is at high ecological risk of mercury pollution. Wetland ecosystem monitoring may allow managers to use the information to predict effects of climate change, water level and flow changes on sedimentation, and to manage for desired vegetation to support waterfowl and ecosystem services. The cooperation of two countries through the EcoPartnership program is now well established and poised for extensive research projects in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters　as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ‛minima', we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in precipitation can be expected to have a major influence on the frequency and severity of flooding in the Taihu Basin. As part of an integrated assessment of flood risk in the Taihu Basin, this paper addresses the hydrological conditions and the potential impacts of climate change on Taihu Lake water levels. The hydrological system is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC ( Variable Infiltration Capacity), with future climate scenarios generated by the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies). The results indicate that maximum and mean flood water levels under the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2021-2050 will be higher than the levels during the baseline period (1961-1990), with larger increases under the B2 scenario than for the A2 scenario. The storm return periods leading to extreme water levels in the Taihu Lake in the future is projected to decrease significantly in comparison to the baseline period, implying the potential for the more frequent occurrence of major floods. These results indicate the importance of planning for future flood control in the Taihu Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis tool, the Taihu Basin Risk Assessment System ( TBRAS), is developed to perform scenario analysis of future flood risk changes in the Taihu Basin. The TBRAS integrates modules of climate modelling, hydrological and hydraulic modelling, dyke reliability analysis, socioeconomic analysis, and damage assessment. The results indicate that the TBRAS can provide a broad-scale simulation of the flooding processes and damage evaluation for the entire Taihu Basin. Future climate change by 2050 in precipitation alone can approximately result in four or five times of risk increase compared with the 2005 baseline risk. Socioeconomic changes alone can increase flood risk by four to six times. The paper reveals that, without any proactive responses, the combination of socioeconomic change, sea-level rise, and other climate changes can substantially increase the overall flood risks to 15-37 times of the present situation. We therefore conclude that both structural and non-structural measures for reducing flood risks are required and provide a set of response options for managing and adapting future flood risk changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wetland ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to hydrological and climate changes. The Great Xing'an Mountain is such a region in China that has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third-generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in The Great Xing'an Mountain will rise by 2-4°C over the next 100 years. This paper predicts the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate conditions. This predication was performed by the Random Forests model, with 18 environmental variables, which will reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model has been proven to have a great prediction ability. The wetland distributions are primarily topography-driven in the Great Xing'an Mountains. Mean annual temperature, warmness index, and potential evapotranspiration ratio are the most important climatic factors in wetland distributions. The model predictions for three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area tends to decrease, and higher emission will also cause more drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of the wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 62.47, 76.90, and 85.83%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B, and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. As for spatial allocation, wetlands may begin to disappear from the sides to the center and south to north under a warming climate. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the south hills with flatter terrain, and some may occur in the north hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severe vanish of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only a small area of wetlands may remain in the north of the high mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent and mechanisms by which precipitation extremes affect hydrological processes in the critical zone (CZ) of loess possessing a thick unsaturated zone remains poorly understood. To this end, we here employed a coupled liquid‒vapor‒heat‒airflow STEMMUS (simultaneous transfer of energy, mass, and momentum in unsaturated soil) model to investigate the impact of extreme precipitation, at both event and annual scales, on CZ hydrological processes within a semiarid loess site vegetated by apple trees on China's Loess Plateau. At the event scale, the vapor flux was two orders of magnitude lower than the liquid water flux. However, the thermal vapor flux penetrated to depths of 200 cm, whereas the isothermal liquid water flux only infiltrated to 100 cm during the study period, implying that thermal‐gradient‐driven vapor transfer is an important mechanism for deep‐layer recharge (DLR). At the annual scale, the DLR below 200 cm during extremely wet years was 6.5 times larger than that during extremely dry years. In contrast, extreme changes in climate had only limited impacts on evapotranspiration; the difference between extremely wet and extremely dry years averaged only 35 mm, much less than the difference in precipitation, which averaged 310 mm. However, the extremely dry years showed a higher ratio (0.58) between transpiration and evapotranspiration than did the extremely wet years (0.51). The findings reported here improve our understanding of CZ hydrological processes related to precipitation extremes in semiarid loess regions. Key Points: Thermal‐gradient‐driven vapor transfer is an important mechanism for deep‐layer recharge (DLR) in loessThe DLR below 200 cm during extremely wet years was 6.5 times larger than that during extremely dry yearsExtreme changes in precipitation had only limited impacts on evapotranspiration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afforestation to control soil erosion has been implemented throughout China over the past few decades. The long‐term hydrological effects, such as total water yield and baseflow, of this large‐scale anthropogenic activity remain unclear. Using six decades of hydrologic observations and remote sensing data, we explore the hydrological responses to forest expansion in four basins with contrasting climates across China. No significant change in runoff was found for the period 1970–2012 for the cold and dry Hailar River Basin in northeastern China. However, both forest expansion and reduced precipitation contributed to the runoff reduction after afforestation since the late 1990s. Similarly, afforestation and drying climate since the mid‐1990s induced a significant decrease in runoff for the Weihe River Basin in semi‐arid northwestern China. In contrast, the two wet basins in the humid southern China, Ganjiang River Basin and Dongjiang River Basin, showed insignificant changes in total runoff during their study periods. However, the baseflow in the winter dry seasons in these two watersheds significantly increased since the 1950s. Our results highlight the long‐term variable effects of forest expansion and local climatic variability on basin hydrology in different climatic regions. This study suggests that landuse change in the humid study watersheds did not cause dramatic change in river flow and that region‐specific afforestation policy should be considered to deal with forestation‐water quantity trade‐off. Conclusions from this study can help improve decision‐making for ecological restoration policies and water resource management in China and other countries where intensive afforestation efforts are taking place. Key Points: Both precipitation and afforestation explained reduction in runoff for dry basinsForest recovery did not result in significant changes in total runoff for two wet basinsDry season baseflow in two wet basins had an upward trend [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable information on the dynamics of hydrological changes is crucial for the social and economic stabilities and sustaining developments in arid Central Asia. However, the few long‐term hydrological records limit understanding of the relationship between meltwater runoff and climate changes, because the short‐term observations show a paradoxical runoff trend with climate warming across Central Asia. Here, we made a systematic analysis on the 10Be exposure ages of the river terraces developed in the eastern Tarim Basin and reconstructed the hydrological regime changes during the past 170 ka. These data, together with the ages of the river terraces in the water source areas, suggest that the exposure ages of river terraces in the eastern Tarim Basin reflect the depositional time of alluvial sediments. The meltwater runoff displays an inverse relation with the North Hemisphere Summer Insolation and temperature changes on both orbital and millennial time scale, indicating that low temperatures favor high runoff fluxes. The observed correlation between the hydrological regimes and temperature changes suggests that the runoff will decrease and thus climate will become drying with global warming in arid Central Asia. Plain Language Summary: Reliable information on the dynamics of hydrological changes is crucial for the social and economic stabilities and sustaining developments in arid Central Asia. However, the short‐term observations show a paradoxical runoff trend with climate warming across Central Asia. In order to understand the association of hydrological regimes with climate changes in arid Central Asia, particularly the hydrological changes on the context of global warming, this study reconstructs the hydrological changes in the eastern Tarim Basin over the past 170 ka. Our results show that the high runoff occurred during low temperature periods in the past. The inverse correlation between the hydrological regimes and temperatures in this study indicates that the runoff will decrease and climate will become drying with global warming in the future. More conservative water management policies should be taken for the sustaining development and water security in Central Asia. Key Points: 10Be exposure ages of river terraces in the eastern Tarim Basin reflect the depositional dates of alluvial sedimentsThe runoff in central Asia displays an inverse relation with global temperature changesHigh runoffs and humid climates occurred during cold periods over the past 170 ka, indicating a climate drying with global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dry‐wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) event, which is defined as the phenomenon of dry (or wet) spells abruptly following wet (or dry) spells, magnifies the influence of individual wet and dry events. The dynamic evolution of DWAA events has not been studied for different climate zones of China that is particularly susceptible to dry and wet extremes. This study explores the future changes in the abrupt alternations between dry and wet extremes across 10 climate divisions of China, with a thorough assessment of dry and wet conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We take advantage of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations including the Providing Regional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) experiment and five CORDEX East Asia experiments to produce high‐resolution climate information for a baseline period of 1975–2004 and a future period of 2069–2098. Our findings disclose that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from the DWAA events at least once during 1975–2004. The wet‐dry alternation event is projected to become more frequent in summer, and a prominent increase in the number of dry‐wet alternation events is expected to occur in spring over most parts of China. Moreover, an increasing number of DWAA events with intensified magnitude is projected to strike the North China Plain dominated by warm temperature and humid zone, which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agriculture production area. Our findings also reveal a strong positive correlation between DWAA and heavy rainfall. The 95th percentile rainfall event contributes most to the wet‐dry alternation event for most climate divisions of China. Plain Language Summary: The emerging disaster of dry‐wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) has been receiving increasing attention due to its compound effects on agricultural production and socioeconomic development. Since China is exposed to dry and wet hydrological extremes as well as their interconnections, a first attempt is made in this study to explore the historical evolution and the future change in the abrupt shifts between dry and wet extremes for different climate divisions of China. Our findings reveal that a total of 70% of China's land area suffered from DWAA events at least once from 1975 to 2004. More importantly, the DWAA is expected to occur more frequently and intense by the end of the 21st century, especially for the North China Plain which is the most densely populated region of the country and is also the largest agricultural production area. Moreover, the summertime wet‐dry alternation is expected to become more frequent for most climate divisions of China, while the dry‐wet alternation event is projected to occur more frequently in spring over East China. These findings provide meaningful insights into the development of adaptation strategies for enhancing society's resilience to compound extremes in a changing climate. Key Points: A total of 70% of China's land area suffered from the dry‐wet abrupt alternation events at least once during 1975–2004The dry‐wet abrupt alternation events are projected to occur more frequently with greater intensity in the North China PlainThe 95th percentile rainfall event contributes most to the wet‐dry alternation event for most climate divisions of China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is likely to affect reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is important for agricultural water resources and food security. Analysis of ET0 changes is also important for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. In this study, ET0 was calculated from 2020 to 2099 in nine agricultural regions and the entire country of China utilizing the Penman–Monteith method based on bias‐corrected climate data from the global climate models MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM, NorES1‐M, IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, GFDL‐ESM 2M and HadGEM2‐ES under future climate change scenarios. The spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal and annual ET0 and climatic variables were analysed based on the Mann–Kendall test with trend‐free prewhitening (TFPW‐MK) and Sen's slope estimator. Sensitivity coefficient and multivariate regression were used to identify factors controlling the change in ET0. The results showed that seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation both increased under all climate scenarios, and the majority of relative humidity and wind speed values showed downward trends during 2020–2099. The lowest annual ET0 values were found in the NECR and QTR, and the SCR had the maximum ET0. Both the TFPW‐MK and slope statistics showed an upward trend of seasonal ET0 during 2020–2059 under all scenarios. During 2060–2099, seasonal ET0 values showed a slight and nonsignificant downward trend under RCP 2.6, while upward trends were produced in other scenarios. Areas with high ET0 values were located in the SCR, GXR and HHHR, while low ET0 values mainly occurred in the NECR and QTR. The ET0 for the four seasons in the SCR was higher than that in the other regions, and the summer ET0 was the highest compared with that in the other seasons overall. For the attribution assessment, Tavg is the main controlling variables to ET0 trends under the interaction of multiple climatic factors though RH is the most sensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast socio‐economic development in agriculture and urbanization resulted in increasing nutrient export by rivers, causing coastal eutrophication in China. In addition, climate change may affect hydrology, and as a result, nutrient flows from land to sea. This study aims at a better understanding of how future socio‐economic and climatic changes may affect coastal eutrophication in China. We modeled river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP) in 2050 for six scenarios combining socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We used the newly developed MARINA 2.0 (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) model. We found that global change can make coastal eutrophication control in China more difficult. In 2050 coastal waters may be considerably more polluted or considerably cleaner than today depending on the SSP‐RCP scenarios. By 2050, river export of TDN and TDP is 52% and 56% higher than in 2012, respectively, in SSP3‐RCP8.5 (assuming large challenges for sustainable socio‐economic development, and severe climate change). In contrast, river export of nutrients could be 56% (TDN) and 85% (TDP) lower in 2050 than in 2012 in SSP1‐RCP2.6 (assuming sustainable socio‐economic development, and low climate change). Climate change alone may increase river export of nutrients considerably through hydrology: We calculate 24% higher river export of TDN and 16% higher TDP for the SSP2 scenario assuming severe climate change compared to the same scenario with low climate change (SSP2‐RCP8.5 vs. SSP2‐RCP2.6). Policies and relevant technologies combining improved nutrient management and climate mitigation may help to improve water quality in rivers and coastal waters of China. Plain Language Summary: Fast socio‐economic development has resulted in increasing nutrient export by rivers, causing coastal eutrophication in China. In addition, climate change may affect river discharge, and as a result, nutrient flows from land to sea. We explored how future socio‐economic and climatic changes may affect coastal eutrophication in China. We found that in 2050 coastal waters may be considerably more polluted or considerably cleaner than today depending on the socio‐economic development and climate change. By 2050, river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP) is 52% and 56% higher than in 2012, respectively, in a scenario assuming large challenges for sustainable socio‐economic development and severe climate change. In contrast, river export of nutrients could be 56% (TDN) and 85% (TDP) lower in 2050 than in 2012 in the scenario assuming sustainable socio‐economic development and low climate change. Climate change alone may increase river export of nutrients considerably: we calculate 24% higher river export of TDN and 16% higher TDP for a scenario assuming severe climate change compared to the same scenario with low climate change. Policies combining improved nutrient management and climate mitigation may help to improve water quality in rivers and coastal waters of China. Key Points: In 2050, rivers in China may be more polluted or cleaner, depending on socio‐economic and climatic changesClimate change may increase nutrient pollution in rivers and coastal eutrophication in ChinaCoastal eutrophication can be reduced by nutrient management and climate mitigation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the dominant causes of streamflow alteration and effects of the current water diversion scheme is beneficial for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents a quantitative attribution of the run‐off changes between headstreams and mainstream from 1960 to 2015 using the Choudhury–Yang equation and evaluates the effects of 18 times of ecological water conveyance in the lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin (TRB). Our results suggest that climate change was the primary determinant of increase of the streamflow in the headstreams from 2000 to 2015. While in the mainstream, human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow with the contribution of 54.8–355.6%. Eighteen episodes of ecological water conveyance have a positive effect on rising groundwater level and are highly related to seed falling time of Shrub and Perennial herbaceous and Annual herbaceous except for Arbor. It indicates that restoring the long‐term drying of the lower reaches through continuous water conveyance is feasible, although the existing programme has not restored the entire riparian system. Our study suggests that it is necessary to adopt an integrated approach for water resources allocation rather than relying on a single tributary contribution in the TRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the mechanisms of river runoff variation is important for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. This study uses long-term observational data as a basis for examining the effects of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation of Jinghe River Basin, a typical arid inland basin in northwest China. A distributed hydrological model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, combined with a sequential cluster method and a separation approach, was used to quantify and distinguish the effects of human activities and climate change on runoff. The hydrological sequence before 1981 can be considered natural. However, human activities have significantly affected runoff since 1981. The runoff reduction caused by human activities between 1981 and 2008 accounted for 85.7% of the total reduction in the downstream of Jinghe River, whereas that caused by climatic variation was only 14.3%. This observation suggests that human activities are the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. Although the role of climate change in driving runoff variation has been identified to be prevalent and dominant in arid regions, this study highlights the importance of human activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological processes change from the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Runoff in the upper reaches of the Hun-Taizi River basin, which is mainly covered by forests in northeast China, decreased from 1960 to 2006. The data used in this study were based on runoff records from six hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Hun-Taizi River basin. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to identify change trends and abrupt change points and consequently analyze the change characteristics in hydrological processes. The abrupt change in the annual runoff in most subcatchments appeared after 1975. Finally, the effects of climate change and land cover change on water resources were identified using regression analysis and a hydrology model. Results of the regression analysis suggest that the correlation coefficients between precipitation and runoff prior to the abrupt change were higher compared with those after the abrupt change. Moreover, using hydrology model analysis, the water yield was found to increase because of the decrease in forest land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The Yangtze floodplain is characterized by numerous large (surface area > 1 km2; ∼25% are > 10 km2) and shallow lakes (maximum depth mainly < 5 m). Floodplain lakes are inherently dynamic and important sites for biogeochemical cycling, biodiversity as well as human resources. Importantly, the degree of hydrological connectivity between lakes and river channels is affected by climate, geomorphic processes as well as cultural disturbance of the catchment. This study investigated the long-term (∼200 years) interaction between a shallow floodplain lake (Taibai Lake; area 25 km2, mean depth 3·2 m) and the Yangtze River using high-resolution multi-proxy analysis (diatoms, geochemistry, and grain size) of a 210Pb-dated sediment core. Diatom assemblages in Taibai Lake exhibited a strong temporal succession and were successively dominated by Aulacoseira granulata (planktonic), Gyrosigma acuminatum (periphytic), and the facultatively planktonic Nitzschia palea over the past 200 years. Eutrophication as inferred by diatom inferred-total phosphorous (DI-TP), however, only started around 1990 with TP concentration increasing from 65 to 95 µg L−1. Prior to 1950 DI-TP was constant and detrended correspondence analysis axis 1 sample scores (of the diatom assemblages) were not correlated with DI-TP concentration suggesting that there were other stressors driving changes in the diatom assemblage besides nutrients. We used sediment grain size as a proxy for hydrological connectivity; median grain size is strongly correlated with the abundance of A. granulata ( R2 = 0·67). A comparison of the diatom stratigraphy with physical and geochemical proxies suggested that Taibai Lake shifted from a riverine-influenced, turbid algae-macrophyte mixed state to a clearwater macrophyte-dominated state around 1950 AD, primarily due to the changes in the hydrological regime of the floodplain resulting from land reclamation and building of reservoirs. After 1990 AD, the lake ecosystem deteriorated following continuous input of nutrients from agriculture and aquaculture, shifting to a hyper-eutrophic algae-dominated state. These results indicate the dynamic nature of floodplain ecosystems and the complexity of multiple stressors affecting them over decadal timescales and the long-term interaction between anthropogenic and natural forcing processes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin in northwest China. It states that seven statistical test approaches were used to determine the shift trends and step changes in the study. It discusses that Mann-Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were utilized to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed-free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were employed to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers demonstrate statistically significant decreasing trends.

The article reports on the study of the historical climate variations and climate change in the Brahmaputra basin such as Tibetan plateau (TP), Himalayan belt and the floodplains (FP). The study analyses the historical trends in temperature and precipitation of the TP, FP, and Himalayan belt through a global 100 year monthly high resolution dataset. It shows that precipitation in the basin is determined by the strength by the monsoons. It expresses that El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnection does not have an important role in the changes in monsoon precipitation. The study also demonstrates the relationship among air temperature, FP, TP, and the strength of the monsoon.

The hydrological response to climate change in the Tarim River Basin was investigated by analysing the hydrological, temperature and precipitation data of the past 50 years. The long-term trend of the hydrological time-series, including air temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, was examined by using both parametric and non-parametric techniques and the plausible association between streamflow and climate change by the method of grey correlation analysis. The results show that the study area became warmer in the last few decades. The air temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase by 5%; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s and then a major increase in the 1980s and 1990s, with average annual precipitation up by 6-8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation around 1986, with mean temperature and precipitation increasing from 67°C and 146 mm before 1986 to 7.3°C and 180 mm respectively after 1986. The temperature has risen by nearly 1 °C over the past 50 years, possibly resulting from the impact of global climate change. Streamflows in the Aksu River and the Yarkant River have shown a significant (P < 0.05) tendency of increase. This is particularly the case for the Aksu River. The coefficients of streamflow increase in the Aksu and Yarkant Rivers are 0.41 and 0.13 respectively. The results of grey correlation analysis show that in the Aksu River, which is located in the northwest of the basin, the impact of precipitation on streamflow is much greater than that of temperature. However, in the Hotan River, which is located in the southwest of the basin, the impact of temperature on streamflow is much greater than that of precipitation. This is likely to be related to the geographic distribution of the headstreams of the rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]