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To investigate the relative contributions of current vs. historical factors in explaining broad-scale diversity gradients using a combination of contemporary factors and a quantitative estimate of the temporal accessibility of areas for recolonization created by glacial retreat following the most recent Ice Age. The part of the Nearctic region of North America that was covered by ice sheets during the glacial maximum 20 000 BP. We used range maps to estimate the species richness of mammals and terrestrial birds in 48 400 km2 cells. Current conditions in each cell were quantified using seven climatic and topographical variables. Historical conditions were estimated using the number of years before present when an area became exposed as the ice sheets retreated during the post-Pleistocene climate warming. We attempted to tease apart contemporary and historical effects using multiple regression, partial regression and spatial autocorrelation analysis. A measure of current energy inputs, potential evapotranspiration, explained 76–82% of the variance in species richness, but time since deglaciation explained an additional 8–13% of the variance, primarily due to effects operating at large spatial scales. Because of spatial covariation between the historical climates influencing the melting of the ice sheet and current climates, it was not possible to partition their effects fully, but of the independent effects that could be identified, current climate explained two to seven times more variance in richness patterns than age. Factors acting in the present appear to have the strongest influence on the diversity gradient, but an historical signal persisting at least 13 000 years is still detectable. This has implications for modelling changes in diversity patterns in response to future global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society. Plain Language Summary: To prepare society for the effects of future climate change, we need to know what the future climate will be like. In this paper we explain the method that is used to construct six different scenarios that describe possible future climates of the Netherlands. The scenarios make assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, and are based on the outcomes of climate models that simulate the response of the climate to these emissions. The KNMI'23 climate scenarios show that strongly reducing global emissions strongly reduces the expected changes in the climate of the Netherlands. In the scenario in which global emissions continue to rise until 2080, Dutch society will have to adapt to a much stronger increases in heat and precipitation extremes, increased risks of droughts with low river discharge in summer, and increased risk of flooding due to high river discharges in winter. In the coming years the climate scenario data will be used to evaluate what needs to be done to keep the country a safe place for people to live in and to thrive in, under changing climate conditions. Key Points: We present a methodology for the construction of regional climate scenarios using a storyline approach to partition uncertaintyResults from CMIP6 are reconstructed with a GCM‐RCM initial condition ensemble to produce high‐resolution scenario data for end‐usersSix scenario variants cover emission uncertainty (high, moderate, low) and uncertainty in the regional response (dry‐trending, wet‐trending) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the central question of how climate change influences tree growth within the context of global warming, we used dendroclimatological analysis to understand the reactions of four major boreal tree species – Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, and Pinus banksiana– to climatic variations along a broad latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54°N in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Tree-ring chronologies from 34 forested stands distributed at a 1° interval were built, transformed into principal components (PCs), and analyzed through bootstrapped correlation analysis over the period 1950–2003 to identify climate factors limiting the radial growth and the detailed radial growth–climate association along the gradient. All species taken together, previous summer temperature (negative influences), and current January and March–April temperatures (positive influences) showed the most consistent relationships with radial growth across the gradient. Combined with the identified species/site-specific climate factors, our study suggested that moisture conditions during the year before radial growth played a dominant role in positively regulating P. tremuloides growth, whereas January temperature and growing season moisture conditions positively impacted growth of B. papyrifera. Both P. mariana and P. banksiana were positively affected by the current-year winter and spring or whole growing season temperatures over the entire range of our corridor. Owing to the impacts of different climate factors on growth, these boreal species showed inconsistent responsiveness to recent warming at the transition zone, where B. papyrifera, P. mariana, and P. banksiana would be the most responsive species, whereas P. tremuloides might be the least. Under continued warming, B. papyrifera stands located north of 49°N, P. tremuloides at northern latitudes, and P. mariana and P. banksiana stands located north of 47°N might benefit from warming winter and spring temperatures to enhance their radial growth in the coming decades, whereas other southern stands might be decreasing in radial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well‐being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well‐being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non‐material services.In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well‐being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar—a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi‐structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate‐related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well‐being through an NCP lens.We found that non‐material services are generally more often associated with well‐being effects. Climate change degrades material and non‐material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief.The outcome of our research provides evidence‐based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies.This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well‐being of the most vulnerable communities. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reference or "no‐feedback" radiative response to warming is fundamental to understanding how much global warming will occur for a given change in greenhouse gases or solar radiation incident on the Earth. The simplest estimate of this radiative response is given by the Stefan‐Boltzmann law as −4σTe‾3≈−3.8 ${-}4\sigma {\overline{{T}_{e}}}^{3}\approx -3.8$ W m−2 K−1 for Earth's present climate, where Te‾ $\overline{{T}_{e}}$ is a global effective emission temperature. The comparable radiative response in climate models, widely called the "Planck feedback," averages −3.3 W m−2 K−1. This difference of 0.5 W m−2 K−1 is large compared to the uncertainty in the net climate feedback, yet it has not been studied carefully. We use radiative transfer models to analyze these two radiative feedbacks to warming, and find that the difference arises primarily from the lack of stratospheric warming assumed in calculations of the Planck feedback (traditionally justified by differing constraints on and time scales of stratospheric adjustment relative to surface and tropospheric warming). The Planck feedback is thus masked for wavelengths with non‐negligible stratospheric opacity, and this effect implicitly acts to amplify warming in current feedback analysis of climate change. Other differences between Planck and Stefan‐Boltzmann feedbacks arise from temperature‐dependent gas opacities, and several artifacts of nonlinear averaging across wavelengths, heights, and different locations; these effects partly cancel but as a whole slightly destabilize the Planck feedback. Our results point to an important role played by stratospheric opacity in Earth's climate sensitivity, and clarify a long‐overlooked but notable gap in our understanding of Earth's reference radiative response to warming. Plain Language Summary: Earth's climate is stable because a warmer planet loses more energy to space, at infrared wavelengths invisible to the naked eye. The rate of change of this energy loss as the planet warms provides an estimate how Earth's energy balance responds to warming, which is simple enough to write on a small piece of paper. When scientists investigate the warming predicted by climate models, they often start from a similar but not identical calculation of how Earth's energy balance responds to warming. This calculation, based on model output, is about 15% less stabilizing than the simple pencil‐and‐paper estimate. In this paper, we explore the causes of this 15% difference between the pencil‐and‐paper estimate and the calculations using climate models. We show that the difference is primarily caused by the lack of assumed warming in climate models high in Earth's atmosphere, where temperatures are not closely linked to surface warming. This lack of warming acts as a hidden destabilizing feedback in current analysis of climate models. Key Points: Earth's reference radiative response, or "Planck feedback," is ∼0.5 W m−2 K−1 less stabilizing than a Stefan‐Boltzmann estimateWe find this deviation is mostly due to the assumed lack of stratospheric warming in calculations of the Planck feedbackThe lack of stratospheric warming serves as an implicit positive feedback in analysis of climate model warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that a uniform global tax-like price on carbon emissions, whose revenues each country retains, can provide a focal point for a reciprocal common climate commitment, whereas quantity targets, which do not nearly so readily present such a single focal point, tend to rely ultimately on individual quantity commitments. The paper postulates the conceptually useful allegory of a futuristic 'World Climate Assembly' (WCA) that votes for a single worldwide price on carbon emissions via the basic democratic principle of one person, one vote majority rule. A WCA-like uniform price-tax counters self-interest by incentivizing countries or agents to internalize the externality because each WCA agent's higher abatement cost from a higher emissions price is counterbalanced by that agent's extra benefit from inducing all other WCA agents to simultaneously lower their emissions in response to the higher price. The paper derives fresh insights and new simple formulae that relate each emitter's most-preferred world price of carbon to the world 'social cost of carbon' (SCC), and further relates the WCA-voted world price of carbon to the world SCC. Some implications are discussed. The overall methodology of the paper is a mixture of mostly classical with some behavioural economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From mother nature and carbon footprints to greenhouse gasses and the race against global warming, popular discourse on environmental issues is saturated with metaphor. Some people view these metaphors as obfuscating or ineffective, while others believe they are crucial for improving climate communications and environmental attitudes. In this paper, we provide a systematic overview and evaluation of the use of English metaphors in Anglo environmental discourse, drawing on a range of empirical and popular media sources. We begin by discussing the role of metaphor in language in thought. Next, we introduce a range of metaphors used to frame discussions of (1) our relationship to nature (e.g., the earth is our common home), (2) our impact on the environment (e.g., we are knocking the climate off balance), and (3) how we should address this impact (e.g., reduce our ecological footprint). We classify these metaphors along several dimensions, including how conventional they are, how systemic they are, how emotionally impactful they are, and how aptly they capture the topics they are used to describe. From this analysis, we derive several promising candidate metaphors that may help increase public understanding and engagement with environmental issues. However, we note that such claims must be tested empirically in future research; currently, there are few large, systematic, replicable experiments in the literature assessing the impact of environmental metaphors. We conclude by offering general recommendations for using metaphors in communications about climate change and sustainability. This paper provides a systematic overview and evaluation of the use of metaphors in environmental discourse. Our analysis illuminates how certain metaphors could help increase public understanding of and engagement with issues like climate change and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the frequency of temperature extremes are often attributed to global warming. The recent availability of near‐surface temperature data records from reference networks, such as the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), enables the quantification of measurement uncertainties. Within an activity of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the estimation of the measurement uncertainty has been provided for USCRN temperature data, using metadata made available by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In this paper, four climate extreme indices (Frost Days, Summer Days, Ice Days, Tropical Nights) and the related uncertainties are calculated for the period 2006–2020 from the USCRN data set and compared with traditional indices. Moreover, the asymmetric USCRN measurement uncertainties are propagated to estimate the uncertainties of climate indices. The comparison shows expanded uncertainties homogeneously distributed with the latitude and typically within 15 days per year for Frost Days and within 10 days for Ice Days, while smaller uncertainties are estimated for Summer Days and Tropical Nights, with values typically within six to seven days per year. Positive uncertainties are typically larger than negative ones for all the indices. The values of Frost and Ice Days with the related uncertainties for USCRN have also been compared with the corresponding values calculated from reanalyses data, showing differences typically within 60 days for median values, quite often smaller than USCRN and inconsistent within the related uncertainties, Overall, the results show that USCRN measurement uncertainties increase confidence in the estimation of climate extreme indices and decisions for adaptation. Plain Language Summary: The relationship between the intensity and frequency of extremes and climate change as well as their attribution to human activities is fundamental for improving the assessment of risk and the elaboration of adaptation strategies. Temperature extremes are often reported and estimated using observations or model data using indices, which are widely adopted in the research community and by decision‐makers. However, the number of temperature extremes is quantified assuming input observations as perfect, whereas these are always affected by uncertainties due to instrumental noise and systematic effects that cannot be always properly accounted for. This also implies that climate extreme indices may under or over‐represent the number of temperature extremes. The advent of reference measurement networks, as well as the overall increase in observational data quality due to recent technological improvements, allows us to quantify measurement uncertainties in detail. In this paper, temperature extremes over the US are estimated from near‐surface temperature measurements provided by the USCRN network in the period 2006–2020 with related uncertainties. The use of uncertainty illustrates the range of values that climate extreme indices may assume. Possible sources of uncertainties and comparisons with data from atmospheric reanalysis are also discussed. Key Points: An extensive assessment of uncertainties for four climate extreme indices is provided using reference near‐surface temperaturesEstimate uncertainties of climate indices for reanalysis validation and quantification of extremes by propagating measurement uncertaintiesUSCRN traceable measurements with quantified uncertainties increase confidence in estimating extreme indices and decisions for adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century). Plain Language Summary: The projections of future climate change are uncertain because they are dependent on different possible scenarios of human‐caused emissions and their interaction with natural forcings, internal climate variability, and inter‐model differences. This paper presents the results of the climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, for the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The sensitivity of the model response to different magnitudes of anthropogenic forcings in the twenty‐first‐century scenarios were performed using two different versions for the atmospheric composition and two different ocean general circulation models. Compared to CMIP5 GISS‐E2 versions, the CMIP6 GISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2100 in comparable scenarios due to larger effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. Both climate models with two different ocean components project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. Key Points: GISS E2.1 model with different configurations is used to carry out 134 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experimentsGISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2,100 in comparable Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in CMIP5 due to larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate responseBoth coupled models, E2.1‐G and E2.1‐H, project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100 with the largest decrease in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change (CC) is a complex phenomenon that has the potential to significantly alter marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Global warming of 2°C is expected to be exceeded during the 21st century, and the frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, storms, droughts, extreme temperatures, and wildfires, has intensified globally over recent decades, differently affecting areas of the world. How CC may impact multiple food safety hazards is increasingly evident, with mycotoxin contamination in particular gaining in prominence. Research focusing on CC effects on mycotoxin contamination in edible crops has developed considerably throughout the years. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive literature search to collect available studies in the scientific literature published between 2000 and 2023. The selected papers highlighted how warmer temperatures are enabling the migration, introduction, and mounting abundance of thermophilic and thermotolerant fungal species, including those producing mycotoxins. Certain mycotoxigenic fungal species, such as Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium graminearum, are expected to readily acclimatize to new conditions and could become more aggressive pathogens. Furthermore, abiotic stress factors resulting from CC are expected to weaken the resistance of host crops, rendering them more vulnerable to fungal disease outbreaks. Changed interactions of mycotoxigenic fungi are likewise expected, with the effect of influencing the prevalence and co‐occurrence of mycotoxins in the future. Looking ahead, future research should focus on improving predictive modeling, expanding research into different pathosystems, and facilitating the application of effective strategies to mitigate the impact of CC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2‐equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming climate and precipitation changes induce notable shifts in climate zones. In this study, the latest generation of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the previous generation CMIP5 under high‐emission scenarios are used together with observations and applied to the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification. The aim is to shed light on how projected warming and changes in precipitation will influence future climate zones and their associated ecosystems while revealing differences between the two model generations. Compared to CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models exhibit slightly improved performance in replicating the observed Köppen‐Geiger map for the historical (1976–2005) period and similar inter‐model agreement for the future. The models show major changes in climate zones with a range of projections depending on which ensemble subset is used: 37.9%–48.1% of the global land area is projected to change climate zone by the end of the century, with the most pronounced changes expected over Europe (71.4%–88.6%) and North America (51.2%–65.8%). CMIP6 models project a higher rate of areal climate zone change (km2/year) throughout the 21st century, which is mainly driven by their greater global land warming rates. Using a likely equilibrium climate sensitivity subset of CMIP6 models that is consistent with the latest evidence constrains the climate zone shifts, and their projections better match the results of CMIP5 simulations. Although the high warming rates of some CMIP6 models are less credible, the risks associated with them are greater, and they heighten the need for urgent action to preserve terrestrial ecosystems. Plain Language Summary: Köppen‐Geiger climate classification is a tool to map regional climate zones based on a region's temperature and precipitation. In recent decades, increasing temperatures and changing precipitation trends have started to affect the distribution of those climate zones, and more extensive changes are expected throughout the 21st century. In this paper, we assess the observed and expected changes in the global distribution of Köppen‐Geiger climate zones using observations along with the latest and the previous generation of global climate model projections. We find that shifts in climate zones are more pronounced in the latest generation of models due to their questionable greater global warming rate projections. Depending on which subset of model projections is used, up to half of the Earth's land area faces the risk of shifting to a different climate zone by the end of the century, with the greatest changes expected in Europe and North America. The rate of change (affected area per year) is also projected to accelerate through the 21st century, suggesting that vulnerable species and agricultural practices might have less time to adapt to changes in climate zones than previously projected. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibits slightly improved performance in simulating the globally observed historical Köppen‐Geiger climate zones compared to CMIP5By the end of the century, 38%–48% of the global land area is projected to be in a different climate zone than todayThe rate of climate zone change is projected to accelerate, with more pronounced rates in CMIP6 due to considerably higher warming rates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The planet is predicted to become drier because of accelerating global warming, increasing great challenges to the survival of terrestrial species. However, the understanding of when and where increasing aridity in the future will lead to abrupt biodiversity loss is still limited. Here, we predicted the spatiotemporal dynamics of future vertebrate biodiversity loss driven by increasing aridity at the assemblage scale under the scenario framework of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results show that, under the high‐emissions scenario of SSP5‐8.5, more than 24.19% of terrestrial assemblages are projected to have at least one vertebrate species exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions by 2100, leading to 55.29% of terrestrial vertebrate species experiencing local habitat loss. In addition, the mean magnitude of global exposure is expected to reach 17.47% by 2100. Within these assemblages, most species will be simultaneously exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions, with an average exposure abruptness of 78.00%, most of which will occur intensively after 2050. If we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the SSP1‐2.6 (SSP2‐4.5) scenario, the magnitude of exposure can significantly decrease to 7.35% (10.56%), and the onset of exposure can be delayed by 43 (30) years, averaging approximately 30% (14%) of vertebrate species from local habitat loss. Our findings also highlight that the concurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks, which can motivate decision‐makers to respond early and effectively to mitigate abrupt ecological disruption. Plain Language Summary: The global land surface is predicted to become more drier in the future due to the accelerating global warming, which places great challenges on the survival of terrestrial species. In this paper, we predicted the future spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity loss of vertebrate species as a result of the increase in aridity, trying to understand when and where the increasing aridity will cause biodiversity loss intensively and lead to abrupt ecological disruption. We found that, under the high‐emissions scenario (∼4.4°C global temperature rise), more than 24.19% of global terrestrial assemblages are projected to have at least one vertebrate species exposed to aridity condition exceeding their niche, leading to the consequence that 55.29% of species will experience habitat loss. The exposure events within most terrestrial assemblages will occur simultaneously after 2050. If we manage to reduce emissions to the low (intermediate)‐emissions scenario (∼1.8°C and 2.7°C global temperature rise), the onset of exposure can be delay by 43 (30) years. Our findings also highlight that the concurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks, which can motivate decision‐makers to respond early to mitigate abrupt ecological disruption. Key Points: We predicted and highlighted the risk of abrupt biodiversity loss in terrestrial vertebrate species driven by increasing aridityMore than 24% of terrestrial assemblages will be exposed to unprecedented aridity, and 55.29% of species will experience local habitat lossConcurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic tundra consists of diverse habitats that differ in dominant vegetation, soil moisture regimes, and relative importance of organic vs. inorganic nutrient cycling. The Arctic is also the most rapidly warming global area, with winter warming dominating. This warming is expected to have dramatic effects on tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics. We completed a meta‐analysis of 166 experimental warming study papers to evaluate the hypotheses that warming changes tundra biogeochemical cycles in a habitat‐ and seasonally specific manner and that the carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles will be differentially accelerated, leading to decoupling of elemental cycles. We found that nutrient availability and plant leaf stoichiometry responses to experimental warming were variable and overall weak, but that both gross primary productivity and the plant C pool tended to increase with growing season warming. The effects of winter warming on C fluxes did not extend into the growing season. Overall, although warming led to more consistent increases in C fluxes compared to N or P fluxes, evidence for decoupling of biogeochemical cycles is weak and any effect appears limited to heath habitats. However, data on many habitats are too sparse to be able to generalize how warming might decouple biogeochemical cycles, and too few year‐round warming studies exist to ascertain whether the season under which warming occurs alters how ecosystems respond to warming. Coordinated field campaigns are necessary to more robustly document tundra habitat‐specific responses to realistic climate warming scenarios in order to better understand the mechanisms driving this heterogeneity and identify the tundra habitats, communities, and soil pools most susceptible to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 1990s the Pacific Walker circulation shows a multi‐decadal strengthening, which contradicts future model projections. Whether this trend, evident in many climate indices especially before the 2015 El Niño, reflects the coupled ocean‐atmosphere response to global warming or the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains debated. Here we show that sea surface temperature trends during 1980–2020 are dominated by three signals: a spatially uniform warming trend, a negative PDO pattern, and a Northern Hemisphere‐Indo‐West Pacific warming pattern. The latter pattern, which closely resembles the transient ocean thermostat‐like response to global warming emerging in a subset of CMIP6 models, shows cooling in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific but warming in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Together with the PDO, this pattern drives the Walker circulation strengthening in the equatorial band. Historical simulations appear to underestimate this pattern, contributing to the models' inability to replicate the Walker cell strengthening. Plain Language Summary: This paper investigates the observed changes in the tropical Pacific during the satellite era, including the recent decadal strengthening of the atmospheric zonal circulation—the Walker cell. We aim to understand the extent to which these changes represent a forced response to rising CO2 concentrations versus natural variability. We apply an approach in which we decompose the observed sea surface temperature trends into three components—a pattern associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is part of natural variability, a uniform warming pattern, and a residual pattern. This residual pattern shows a remarkable resemblance to a forced ocean thermostat‐like transient response generated in some of the climate models, characterized by equatorial Pacific (EP) cooling, and a broad warming of the Northern Hemisphere, and the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. These results challenge studies arguing that the recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker cell can be explained simply by multi‐decadal natural variability in the tropics. Furthermore, the inability of climate models at large to fully capture this forced pattern with historical forcing puts into focus the reliability of future projections of climate change in the tropical Pacific, specifically the timing of emergence of the eastern EP warming. Key Points: A multi‐decadal strengthening of the Pacific Walker cell is observed in a wide range of indices, especially after 1990A Northern Hemisphere ‐ Indo West Pacific warming sea surface temperature pattern, which differs from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, is evident since 1980This pattern resembles a forced response to abrupt CO2 forcing, emerging in a subset of climate models, and contributes to the Walker circulation strenthening [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming causes permafrost degradation that not only leads to the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, but also to soil moisture increases due to ground ice melt. These processes are particularly prevalent in peat‐rich and ice‐rich permafrost regions. Peat is important because of its high organic matter content and soil moisture. Although previous work has focused on the importance of two factors, their precise quantitative impact on permafrost is still not clear. Here we apply the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and sensitivity experiments to quantify the role of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost, with a case study focused on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We verify that organic matter and soil moisture has a cooling effect in the warm season and an insulating effect in the cold season. The average thawing onset was delayed 10 days at 0.05–1.4 m depths, when organic matter content increases from 0% to 90%. Freezing onset occurs slightly earlier. Furthermore, active layer thickness (ALT) decreased by 0.40 m. Soil moisture has similar effect on permafrost as organic matter, but ALT changes have a higher magnitude, decreasing by 0.46 m. The results show that both organic matter and soil moisture have an insulating effect on permafrost. Further, the magnitude of impact is larger as organic matter or soil moisture increase. These results can be helpful in assessing permafrost carbon mitigation with climate change. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost can contain high amounts of organic matter and ground ice, and peat plays an important role in permafrost degradation. Permafrost degrades due to climate warming, which can lead to the release of carbon in the form of greenhouse gases, exacerbating the degradation of permafrost. Additionally, soil moisture also significantly impacts permafrost degradation. However, few studies have estimated the effects of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost degradation. This paper therefore explores the quantitative effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost through a series of model sensitivity experiments. We find that organic matter and soil moisture both insulate permafrost, cooling it in summer and warming it in winter. These results are important for mitigating the effects of climate change on permafrost and carbon feedbacks. Key Points: The insulating effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost is quantified using model sensitivity experimentsIncreasing organic matter and soil moisture both cool permafrost in summer and warm it in winterThese organic matter and soil moisture feedbacks refine our understanding of permafrost dynamics under climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The necessity to achieve global sustainability and renewable energy resources to overcome the threat of climate change has led to unparalleled social and economic alterations ubiquitous throughout the world. The environment surrounding pollution correlated with global warming is essential to technological advances for developing energy resources. Renewable and sustainable energy resources are eco‐friendly energy sources that transform heat directly into electrical energy. The transformation of the global energy system underway in various countries can play a predominant role in power sectors. It helps in establishing a low‐power solution with high performance in advance. This review paper highlights technological feasibility within the economic activity of sustainable resources in various sectors. The sustainable resource would represent the world's most advanced technology and cost‐effective global power transition pathway. The present status, prospects, and updated information about these energy resources have been discussed in detail. This review provides a recommendation on which energy would be suitable for electrical energy generation and would establish a green environment for the next generation to survive in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary developmental biology, and especially ecological developmental biology, is essential for discussions of sustainability and the responses to global climate change. First, this paper explores examples of animals that have successfully altered their development to accommodate human‐made changes to their environments. We next document the ability of global warming to disrupt the development of those organisms with temperature‐dependent sex‐determination or with phenologies coordinating that organism's development with those of other species. The thermotolerance of Homo sapiens is also related to key developmental factors concerning brain development and maintenance, and the development of corals, the keystone organisms of tropical reefs, is discussed in relation to global warming as well as to other anthropogenic changes. While teratogenic and endocrine‐disrupting compounds are not discussed in this essay, the ability of glyphosate herbicides to block insect development is highlighted. Last, the paper discusses the need to creatively integrate developmental biology with ecological, political, religious, and economic perspectives, as the flourishing of contemporary species may require altering the ways that Western science has considered the categories of nature, culture, and self. Research Highlights: Knowledge of developmental biology is critical for discussions of sustainability and for the possibilities of multispecies flourishing. Endangered coral reefs and turtle species highlight the developmental interactions between the biotic and abiotic portions of the environment. Developmental biology must interact creatively with philosophy, economics, religion, politics in order for environmental survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic and financial risks of global warming have become a hot issue of academic interest. This article analyzes global warming, financial risk, and the economic statistics of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 as a sample to assess the influence of the severity of global warming on financial risk. Global warming is found to affect financial risk and to have a substantial favorable influence on the amount of financial risk. Global warming also has significant effects on households, enterprises, financial institutions, and governments. There is heterogeneity in the effects of climate variation on financial risk. Global warming will cause a greater accumulation of financial risk in economically developed regions. Additionally, it will lead to financial risks by causing a decline in the incomes of residents, a decline in the profits of enterprises, growth in the number of loans that financial institutions consider to be nonperforming, and a widening of the gap between government revenue and expenditures. All of these effects will have an adverse domino effect on the economy. To reduce the financial risks caused by global warming, countermeasures are being offered to ensure social cohesion, conduct risk stress testing, create risk mitigation instruments, and encourage environmentally responsible development. This paper discusses policies and provides policymakers with recommendations on how to cope with the systematic financial risks induced by climate variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dire prospects of global warming have been increasing the pressure on policymakers to use trade policy as a mitigation tool, challenging trade economists' canonical 'targeting principle'. Even though the justifications for this stance remain as valid as ever, it no longer seems feasible in a world that is already engaging actively in using trade policy for climate purposes. However, the search for second‐best solutions remains warranted. In this paper, we focus on the climate benefits of tariff reform for a broad sample of Latin American and Caribbean countries, drawing on Shapiro's (2021, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136, 831) insights about the environmental bias of trade policy. Using a partial equilibrium approach and GTAP‐MRIO data for 2014, we show that even though there is evidence of a negative bias towards 'dirty goods' in half of the countries studied, translating this into actionable tariff reforms is plagued by interpretation and implementation difficulties, as well as by jurisdictional and efficiency trade‐offs. There are also questions about their efficacy in curbing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As small poikilotherms, insects are largely dependent on their environment for thermoregulation and so are particularly vulnerable to changing temperatures.Butterflies are a well‐studied group often used as models to investigate insect responses to temperature. However, little has been done to synthesise and present this large volume of literature in an accessible format, particularly with reference to knowledge gaps and areas rich in information. Using a systematic mapping method, we synthesised the last 40 years of research on the topic of butterfly responses to temperature.We identified and coded 451 research papers, in which butterfly species were studied 3198 times. We identified taxonomic groups, regions and experimental designs that were well or poorly represented.We found that there was a relatively good balance of representation across butterfly families in relation to the number of species within each family. The tropics were less frequently studied than temperate regions, and there were more studies reporting outcomes on adults than at any other life stage. Finally, in situ studies were more common than ex situ studies.Taken together, the higher representation of certain regions, life stages and approaches could lead to an incomplete understanding of the impacts of temperature on butterflies, potentially resulting in ill‐informed decisions.We make suggestions for how to resolve these discrepancies in representation, including calling for an increased focus on the tropics, the establishment of butterfly monitoring schemes in the global south, a greater focus on the effects of temperature on non‐adult life stages, an increase in experiments investigating fluctuating thermal regimes and the incorporation of more behavioural responses to temperature in future research. Only by addressing these disparities can we gain a complete understanding of how butterflies will respond to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this integrative review is to examine recent literature on the intersection of SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐19 novel coronavirus) and climate change that will lead to a greater understanding of the complexities of the urgent pandemic linked with the emerging climate crisis. A literature search for peer‐reviewed, English language, literature published since the pandemic emerged was conducted using Cumulated Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, and the Cochrane Library. The final sample yielded a total of 22 commentaries, editorials, discussion papers, and a research study that explicitly addressed the intersection of COVID‐19 and climate change. Sixty articles emerged in the initial review of the intersection of the COVID‐19 pandemic and climate change with the final yield of 22 articles deemed valid for inclusion after full text review. With the emergence of COVID‐19 and scholarly discourse that addresses the intersection of the pandemic with climate change, key issues emerged that intersect with policy /advocacy, social justice, and nursing's public health role in clinical practice, education, policy/advocacy, and research/scholarship. Five themes that emerged included the role of public health in COVID‐19 and climate change efforts; global approach addressing human‐environment issues; intersection of COVID‐19 and climate change from a community and global perspective; impacts of COVID‐19, climate change and the environment and professional associations and specialty organizations' views and responsibilities with a lens on COVID‐19 and climate change. Despite the importance of addressing racial inequities as well as systemic and structural racism that impacts those most affected by climate change and pandemics such as COVID‐19, no literature addressed this topic. Public health nursing has a critical role in addressing climate change and the pandemic response to COVID 19 in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classifications are useful to synthesize the physical state of the climate with a proxy that can be directly related to biota. However, they present a potential drawback, namely a strong sensitivity because of the use of hard thresholds (step functions). Thus, minor discrepancies in the base data produce large differences in the type of climate. However, such an a priori limitation is also a strength because such sensitivity can be used to better gauge model performance. Although previous attempts of classifying climates of the world using global climate model outputs were encouraging, the applicability of their classifications to impact studies has been limited by past model issues. Notwithstanding the persistence of certain imperfections and limitations in current models, the high‐quality physical simulations from phase six of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has opened new possibilities in the field, thanks to their improved representation of atmospheric and oceanic physics. The purpose of this paper is twofold: to show that climate classifications from CMIP6 are sufficiently robust for use in impact studies, and to use those classifications for identifying error sources and potential issues that deserve further attention in models. Thus, 52 CMIP6 climate models were evaluated by using three climate classifications schemes, classical Köppen, extended‐Köppen, and modified Thornthwaite. We first assessed model ability to reproduce present climate types by comparing their outputs with observational data. Models performed best for the Köppen and extended‐Köppen classification methods (Cohen's kappa κ = 0.7), and had moderate scores for the Thornthwaite climate classification (κ = 0.4). By tracing back the observed biases, we were able to pinpoint the misrepresentation of dry climates as a major source of error. Another finding was that most models still had some difficulties in representing the seasonal variability of precipitation over several monsoonal regions, thereby yielding the wrong climate type there. Models were also evaluated for future climate. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. These changes include a shrinkage of polar/frigid climates (22%) and an increase of dry climates (7%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates some of the uncertainties sources associated with the pseudo global warming (PGW) approach which was employed to project future patterns of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea (AS). First, the climate variables controlling the patterns of tropical cyclones were extracted from reanalysis datasets of ERA5, ERAI, CFSR, and NCEP/NCAR. Then, each dataset was evaluated against long‐term measurements to identify the best‐performing reanalysis dataset. ERA5 showed the best performance for most of the variables. Outputs of 20 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) were then evaluated against the ERA5 data resulting in an ensemble of the best performing GCMs. A PGW framework was then used to project the changes in patterns of three significant historical cyclones: Gonu, Phet, and Ashobaa. In doing so, the signals of future climate variables were extracted from the GCMs ensemble to modify the initial and boundary conditions of the WRF model which was previously tuned for reproducing the historical TCs. Different tests were conducted to address the sources of uncertainty in the PGW approach, including the selection of the climate variables contributing to the computation of the signals, the selection of GCMs, and the spatial variation of signals. A considerable sensitivity of the projected track and intensity of TCs to the choice of GCMs was observed, acknowledging the importance of GCMs evaluation before calculating the signals. Moreover, it was found that among all variables, signals of sea surface temperature and air temperature have major effects on the cyclone's track and intensity. Apart from that, when the signals were applied to the domain of the WRF model uniformly, compared to applying spatially varying signals, different tracks and intensities for future TCs were also observed. Overall, the findings of this paper challenge the reliability of the projected changes in TCs patterns obtained from PGW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Microscopy is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal techniques are being considered, it is critical that they be evaluated against our scientific understanding of the global biological carbon pump. In a recent paper Nowicki et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007083) provide an innovative and comprehensive breakdown of the different mechanistic pathways of carbon sequestration through the present‐day biological pump but then speculate that "These results suggest that ocean carbon storage will weaken as the oceans stratify and the subtropical gyres expand due to anthropogenic climate change." Essentially, the authors combine their steady state result that oligotrophic subtropical gyres have lower residence times than other areas with the climate change result of these areas increasing under climate warming and extrapolate—assuming "all else is equal"—that the overall ocean will suffer a reduction in carbon sequestration efficiency. Expressing global changes in carbon sequestered by the ocean's biological pump as the summation of local changes in the sequestered carbon, timescale of return to the surface, and biogeographical area, I discuss how all three terms are tightly coupled, and summarize decades of climate change modeling consistently indicating that the global scale physical sequestration response is an increase ‐ in opposition of what one would infer from changes in subtropical area alone. Key Points: Nowicki et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007083) asserted "that ocean carbon storage will weaken as the oceans stratify and the subtropical gyres expand"The physical changes in ocean stratification, ventilation, and carbon sequestration under climate warming are describedAssuming only changes in subtropical areas without the associated changes in ventilation leads to opposite conclusion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The centennial response of land‐terminating glaciers in Greenland to climate change is largely unknown. Yet, such information is important to understand ongoing changes and for projecting the future evolution of Arctic subpolar glaciers, meltwater runoff, and sediment fluxes. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology, and sedimentology of prominent moraine ridges and the proglacial areas of ice cap outlet glaciers on the Qaanaaq peninsula (Piulip Nunaa). We determine geometric changes of glaciers since the neoglacial maximum; the Little Ice Age (LIA), and we compare glacier behaviour during the LIA with that of the present day. There has been very little change in the rate of volume loss of each outlet glacier since the LIA compared with the rate between 2000 and 2019. However, the percentage of each glacier that is likely composed of cold‐based ice has increased since the LIA, typically by 20%. The LIA moraines comprise subrounded, striated, and faceted clasts that evidence subglacial transport, and outwash plains, flutes, kames, and eskers that evidence subglacial motion and meltwater within temperate ice. Contrastingly, contemporary ice margins and their convex ice surfaces comprise pronounced primary foliation, ephemeral supraglacial drainage, sediment drapes from thrust plane fractures, and an absence of open crevasses and moulins. These calculations and observations together lead us to interpret that these outlet glaciers have transitioned towards an increasingly cold‐based thermal regime despite a warming regional climate. Thermal regime transitions control glacier dynamics and therefore should be incorporated into glacier evolution models, especially where polythermal glaciers prevail and where climate is changing rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change, induced by global warming, are leading to huge economic, environmental and social impacts worldwide. The world is considered to be in a state of climate emergency, and urgent decarbonisation measures are required to control the temperature rise and mitigate such effects. In this context, EU targets for decarbonisation are to reduce, at least 55% of GHG emissions until 2030, and then to become climate‐neutral, by 2050. The steel industry, being among the biggest producers of CO2, is committed to fulfil this goal. However, the production of 1 tonne of steel, in the coal‐dependent BF/BOF route, can lead to about 2.3 tonnes of CO2, and this route is responsible for more than half of all steel produced in EU. Therefore, finding alternative breakthrough technologies to reduce CO2 emissions is a priority for the steel industry, and different decarbonisation strategies are being implemented in different European plants. Such strategies include the optimization of the DRI and EAF route. This paper focused on this strategy and it was found that the combined route DRI and EAF, based on green hydrogen and carbon free electricity, may reduce CO2 emissions in about 98% compared to the BF/BOF route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐known, widely documented inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature ("temperature‐size rule") has recently led to predictions of body size decline following current climatic warming ("size shrinking effect"). For keystone pollinators such as wild bees, body shrinking in response to warming can have significant effects on pollination processes but there is still little direct evidence of the phenomenon because adequate tests require controlling for confounding factors linked to climate change (e.g., habitat change). This paper assesses the shrinking effect in a community of solitary bees from well‐preserved habitats in the core of a large nature reserve experiencing climatic warming without disturbances or habitat changes. Long‐term variation in mean body mass was evaluated using data from 1704 individual bees (137 species, 27 genera, 6 families) sampled over 1990–2023. Climate warmed at a fast rate during this period, annual mean of daily maximum temperature increasing 0.069°C/year on average during 2000–2020. Changes in bee body mass verified expectations from the size shrinking effect. The mean individual body mass of the community of solitary bees declined significantly, irrespective of whether the analysis referred to the full species sample or only to the subset of species that were sampled in both the old (1990–1997) and recent (2022–2023) periods. On average, body mass declined ~0.7%·year−1, or an estimated average cumulative reduction of ~20 mg per individual bee from 1990 to 2023. Proportional size reduction was greatest among large‐bodied species, ranging from around −0.6%·year−1 for the smallest species to −0.9%·year−1 for the largest ones. Declining rate was steeper for cavity‐nesting than ground‐nesting species. The pollination and mating systems of bee‐pollinated plants in the study region are probably undergoing significant alterations as a consequence of supra‐annual decline in bee body mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in high‐performance computing have enabled large‐eddy simulations (LES) of turbulence, convection, and clouds. However, their potential to improve parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs) is only beginning to be harnessed, with relatively few canonical LES available so far. The purpose of this paper is to begin creating a public LES library that expands the training data available for calibrating and evaluating GCM parameterizations. To do so, we use an experimental setup in which LES are driven by large‐scale forcings from GCMs, which in principle can be used at any location, any time of year, and in any climate state. We use this setup to create a library of LES of clouds across the tropics and subtropics, in the present and in a warmer climate, with a focus on the transition from stratocumulus to shallow cumulus over the East Pacific. The LES results are relatively insensitive to the choice of host GCM driving the LES. Driven with large‐scale forcing under global warming, the LES simulate a positive but weak shortwave cloud feedback, adding to the accumulating evidence that low clouds amplify global warming. Plain Language Summary: Clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in our understanding and in predictions of climate change because it is challenging to represent their small‐scale dynamics in climate models. However, high‐resolution simulations can provide faithful simulations of clouds and turbulence in limited areas, and these can be used to calibrate climate models. So far, only a limited set of simulations has been used for calibration of climate models, with focus on a few specific locations. This study presents an experimental setup that allows the high‐resolution simulations to be run anywhere on the globe, in any climate state, driven by output from different climate models. The setup is used to create a library of high‐resolution simulations of clouds across the tropics and subtropics in both the current and a warmer climate. The library substantially expands the data set available for the calibration and evaluation of climate models. Key Points: A library of high‐resolution simulations of clouds is created with large‐eddy simulations (LES) driven by a few global climate models (GCMs)Clouds simulated by LES driven by different GCMs are more similar to one another than the corresponding GCM‐simulated cloudsUnder global warming, LES‐simulated low clouds exhibit a weak but positive feedback on warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 3–4 decades, coincident with global warming and atmospheric CO2 increase, Arctic sea ice has significantly decreased in its extent as well as in thickness. When extrapolating this alarming trend, the central Arctic Ocean might become ice‐free during summers within about the next 2–5 decades. Paleoclimate records allow us to better understand the processes controlling modern climate change and distinguish between natural and anthropogenic forcing. In this context, detailed studies of the earlier Earth history characterized by a much warmer global climate with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are important. The main focus of this review paper is the long‐term late Mesozoic‐Cenozoic Arctic Ocean climate history from Greenhouse to Icehouse conditions, with special emphasis on Arctic sea ice history. Starting with some information on the Cretaceous Arctic Ocean climate, this paper will concentrate on selected results from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 302 (Arctic Ocean Coring Expedition (ACEX)), the first scientific drilling in the permanently ice‐covered Arctic Ocean, dealing with the Cenozoic climate history. While these results from ACEX were unprecedented, key questions related to the Cenozoic Arctic climate history remain unanswered, largely due to the major mid‐Cenozoic hiatus (if existing) and partly to the poor recovery of the ACEX record. Following‐up ACEX and its cutting‐edge science, a second scientific drilling on Lomonosov Ridge with a focus on the reconstruction of the continuous and complete Cenozoic Arctic Ocean climate history has currently been proposed and scheduled as IODP Expedition 377 for 2021. Key Points: Arctic climate records from Cretaceous‐Paleogene Greenhouse to Neogene‐Quaternary Icehouse help to understand modern climate changeIce‐free summers occurred during a late Miocene warm climate with pCO2 concentrations of 450 ppm, a value we might reach in the near futureAn IODP drilling on Lomonosov Ridge with a focus on the complete Cenozoic Arctic Ocean climate history is scheduled for 2021 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the interplay between the biophysical and economic geographies of climate change impacts on agriculture. It does so by bridging the extensive literature on climate impacts on yields and physical productivity in global crop production, with the literature on the role of adaptation through international trade in determining the consequences of climate change impacts. Unlike previous work in this area, instead of using a specific crop model or a set of models, we employ a statistical meta-analysis that encompasses all studies available to the IPCC-AR5 report. This permits us to isolate specific elements of the spatially heterogeneous biophysical geography of climate impacts, including the role of initial temperature, differential patterns of warming, and varying crop responses to warming across the globe. We combine these climate impact estimates with the Global Trade Analysis Project model of global trade in order to estimate the national welfare changes that are decomposed into three components: the direct (biophysical impact) contribution to welfare, the terms of trade effect, and the allocative efficiency effect. We find that when we remove the spatial variation in climate impacts, the terms of trade impacts are cut in half. Given the inherent heterogeneity of climate impacts in agriculture, this points to the important role of trade in distributing the associated welfare impacts. When we allow the biophysical impacts to vary across the empirically estimated uncertainty range taken from the meta-analysis, we find that the welfare consequences are highly asymmetric, with much larger losses at the low end of the yield distribution. This interaction between the magnitude and heterogeneity of biophysical climate shocks and their welfare effects highlight the need for detailed representation of both in projecting climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued rise in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration has led to calls from experts, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that has estimated that global warming needs to be limited to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and that carbon neutrality would need to be achieved globally by 2050 to meet this target. Achieving carbon neutrality by mid‐century will rely on successful implementation and widespread adoption of technologies for reducing emissions from large point sources of CO2, direct CO2 capture from the air, as well as storage and utilization technologies that would convert CO2 to a form that would ensure safety and permanency of storage. In this paper, engineering solutions for CO2 capture, utilization, and storage are reviewed with a focus on technology readiness level, and cost. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatland conversion for agriculture is the leading cause of Indonesia's terrestrial carbon emissions that contribute substantially to global warming. Indonesia's peatlands contain 55–57 billion tonnes of carbon, the equivalent of almost 2 years of global carbon emissions at existing rates. This paper examines initiatives to retain soil‐based carbon in Indonesia's province of Riau, where over half the surface area is composed of agriculturally productive peatlands. We qualitatively evaluate three types of partnership programmes (bilateral, co‐governed and internationally funded local initiatives) in Riau aimed at the sustainable development of peatlands. The article finds that carbon loss is likely to persist in all case studies. Public, private and civil society actors in each partnership have exploited funding and political opportunities to advance agendas not directly related to the environment. The administrative category of the peatland hydrological unit as an ecologically meaningful scale of peatland governance is also under‐utilised by the partnerships studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or "seeds", may exert an independent influence on TC frequency. Plain Language Summary: The term tropical cyclone frequency refers to the average number of tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes, typhoons, etc.) which occur each year, either over the earth as a whole or in smaller regions. In this paper, the authors review the state of the science regarding what is known about tropical cyclone frequency. The state of the science is not great. There are around 80 tropical cyclones in a typical year, and we do not know why it is this number and not a much larger or smaller one. We also do not know much about whether this number should increase or decrease as the planet warms‐‐‐thus far, it has not done much of either on the global scale, though there are larger changes in some particular regions. No existing theory predicts tropical cyclone frequency. In this situation, we are left with numerical models as our primary tool, and the authors discuss the strengths, weaknesses, and different ways of using such models to investigate tropical cyclone frequency. Idealized simulations, in which the planet is made simpler than it really is, are allowing some new insights. Another promising avenue of investigation involves studying the weaker disturbances that sometimes strengthen into tropical cyclones. Key Points: We do not understand why the number of tropical cyclones per year is what it is, nor how it may be changingIn the absence of theory, our main tools are numerical modelsPromising research directions include idealized simulations at high resolution and study of precursor disturbances, or "seeds" [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Beton- Und Stahlbetonbau is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ABSTRACT Scholars and practitioners acknowledge the benefits of organizations understanding their contribution to global warming and implementing carbon management strategies to address climate change concerns. A key element of a carbon management strategy is to reduce emissions, which requires an assessment of a firm's greenhouse gas emissions. For most organizations the indirect (scope 3) emissions represent the largest portion of their total carbon footprint. When facility-specific data are not available, firms are encouraged to use standard emission factors to calculate scope 3 emissions. This paper investigates how sampled Australian organizations assess their scope 3 emissions with respect to the emission factors they are using to convert activity data into units of carbon dioxide equivalent emission (CO2-e), and the implications for producing an accurate emission assessment. The research study found that, where conversion information was not available in a recognized government publication, the use of varying conversion value sources resulted in wide discrepancies in reported emissions for like activities. This undermines the assessment quality, makes comparison of results across organizations difficult and can lead to inappropriate carbon management strategy choices and misallocation of resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio‐economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade−1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long‐term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate‐related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of −5.7 and −6.0 days decade−1, respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi‐aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non‐significant trends ranging from −1.0 to +1.3 days decade−1. Leaf‐out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of −2.4 and −2.8 days decade−1, respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade−1) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade−1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade−1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between −1.0 and +11 m decade−1 for semi‐aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood‐decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade−1) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade−1), except for semi‐aquatic insects (−4.7 m decade−1). Although regional land‐use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade−1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews on the trends in extremeweather events induced by global climate change. The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall on Japan and their intensity show no discernible long-term trend in the past observation record, while the translation speed of TCs shows significant decline. The intensification of heavy rainfalls and extratropical cyclones are also confirmed. Recent simulation studies indicate that the global warming would increase the maximum wind speed and rainfall associated with the TCs. The intensification of extratropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls/snowfalls, tornados, and lightning strikes are also predicted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an active ecological agent in the boreal forest, wildfires have many important impacts on the underlying permafrost. However, investigations of post‐fire changes in the features of ecosystem‐protected permafrost are extremely limited in the patchy permafrost regions, Northeast China. Additionally, the impacts of wildfires on patchy permafrost are complicated in this region. In this paper, based on field surveys and observations, permafrost features and their influencing factors were analyzed in the area burned in 2006. The results showed notably lower soil temperatures in shrub‐wetland (NWH1, unburned and NWH2, light burn) in comparison with those in the birch‐larch forest (NWH3, light burn and NWH4, moderate burn). Changes in shallow ground temperatures (0–4 m in depth) were significant. Mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual maximum soil temperature at the light‐burn NWH2 site were 0.3–5.2°C higher than those of unburned NWH1, but annual minimum soil temperatures, 0.3–2.1°C lower. MASTs at the moderately burned NWH4 were 0.6–1.6°C higher than those at the light‐burn NWH3. The active layer thickness (ALT) was greater at burned sites, and; at the moderately burned site, only seasonal frost was found when 13 years after the burn. The contents of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen were the highest at the unburned NWH1 from 0.0 to 0.4 m in depth, followed by those at the lightly‐burned NWH2 and NWH3, and the lowest at the moderately‐burned NWH4. Climate warming, forest fires, and changing local factors (e.g., soil moisture contents, snow cover, soil texture and drainage conditions) worked together to increase ground temperature and ALT. These research results could provide important scientific basis for the protection of boreal forest and wetlands and the ecosystem‐protected permafrost under a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound climate extremes, such as events with concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, have significant impacts on the health of humans and ecosystems. This paper aims to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of compound extremes of monthly temperature and precipitation, evaluate the performance of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating compound extremes, and investigate their future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results show a significant increase in the frequency of compound warm extremes (warm/dry and warm/wet) but a decrease in compound cold extremes (cold/dry and cold/wet) during 1985–2014 relative to 1955–1984. The observed upward trends of compound warm extremes over China are much higher than those worldwide during the period of interest. A multi‐model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6 models performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet extremes, and temporal correlation coefficients between MME and observations are above 0.86. Under future scenarios, CMIP6 simulations show substantial rises in compound warm extremes and declines in compound cold extremes. Globally, the average frequency of warm/wet extremes over a 30‐yr period is projected to increase for 2070–2099 relative to 1985–2014 by 18.53, 34.15, 48.79, and 59.60 under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. Inter‐model uncertainties for the frequencies of compound warm extremes are considerably higher than those of compound cold extremes. The projected uncertainties in the global occurrences of warm/wet extremes are 3.82 times those of warm/dry extremes during 2070–2099 and especially high for the Amazon and the Tibetan Plateau. Plain Language Summary: Compound climate extremes, such as the events with concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, have significant impacts on the health of humans and ecosystems. Can climate model simulate the historical compound extremes? If yes, how the global compound extremes will change in the future? In this study, we found that the global climate model performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet and warm/dry extremes during the period 1955–2014. With greenhouse gas emissions continuing to increase in the future, compound warm/dry and warm/wet extremes show a continuous increase in frequency in the next few decades, while compound cold/dry and cold/wet extremes are projected to occur less frequently. Key Points: A multi‐model ensemble of CMIP6 models performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet extremesThe inter‐model uncertainties for the frequencies of compound warm extremes are considerably higher than those of compound cold extremesThe projected uncertainties in the global occurrences of warm/wet extremes are 3.82 times those of warm/dry extremes during 2070–2099 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In urban areas, pre‐existing concrete‐based demolition wastes and purposely introduced crushed dolerite have been used to create artificial soils, which capture carbon (C) as carbonate minerals and offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can enhance capture of C in artificial soils through production of glomalin‐related soil protein (GRSP), which facilitates soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and aggregation, and may also enhance precipitation of soil inorganic carbon (SIC). In this paper, we show how different mixtures of dolerite and concrete affect AMF community structure and function, GRSP fractions, and soil organic and inorganic carbon contents. We used nine demonstration plots, 1 m deep, to simulate a constructed urban soil, consisting of different proportions (0, 30, 50, 70 and 100%) of either crushed concrete demolition waste or dolerite quarry fines and sown to a species‐rich meadow mixture, to investigate AMF colonization and community structure (using DNA terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism), contents of easily‐extractable and difficultly‐extractable GRSP, and both organic and inorganic carbon contents. All artificial soils supported functioning AMF communities with different levels of GRSP, SIC and SOC. The 100% dolerite and 100% concrete soils had higher values of difficultly‐to‐extract GRSP andSOC than pure sand, whereas 100% concrete had higher AMF colonization and SOC than sand. AMF community analysis indicated that high GRSP producing species were abundant in 100% dolerite and 100% concrete. These findings demonstrate that there is potential to incorporate demolition waste or dolerite products into the land to support environmental sustainability and enhance soil C sequestration. Highlights: In constructed soils, crushed concrete and dolerite more effectively enhance GRSP and soil organic and inorganic carbon contents than sand.Use of crushed concrete and dolerite in plant‐growing substrates is a novel way to combat climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from theory on the "co-production" of science and society, this paper provides an account of trajectories in US climatology, roughly from the 1850s to 1920, the period during which climatology emerged as an organized branch of meteorology and government administration. The historical narrative traces the development of climatology both as a professional/institutional project and as a component of a larger governmental logic. Historical analysis of climatologists' scientific texts, maps, and social organization within government provides a sociological explanation for the emergent "stabilization" of climate as a geographic-statistical category. Climatic stability, defined by the view that climate is unchanging, was advanced over this period in a way that linked the interests and practices of climatologists to actors invested in facilitating and administrating commercial agriculture and trade. I position the logic of climatology and the discourse of climatic stability historically, with reference to prior concern with climate change and, in recent decades, efforts to govern global warming through geoengineering climatic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notions of 'co-production' are growing in popularity in social science and humanities research on climate change, although there is some ambiguity about the meanings of the term and how it is being used. It is time to critically and reflexively take stock of this expanding area of scholarship. A comprehensive review of over 130 scientific publications first mapped the scholars using co-production, relative to characteristics like their discipline, nationality, and research themes. Second, it looked at how this diversity of scientific perspectives has opened up a multiplicity of meanings of co-production. While most discussions of co-production stop at a basic distinction between descriptive and normative uses of the term, this review unpacked eight conceptual lenses on co-production, each discernible by its particular emphases, academic traditions, logic, and criteria of success. There are two important implications of this work. On one hand, it urges self-reflexive transparency when using co-production concepts. The multiple meanings attached to co-production add richness to the concept and open it up to different uses. However, it is important that scholars clearly communicate how they use the term and are mindful of what they 'buy into' by using the concept in certain ways. On the other hand, there are tensions between the different perspectives as well as opportunities for combining them into a compound concept of co-production. In this way, co-production is reconceptualized as a prism, where each aspect allows different but complimentary insights on the relationship between science, society, and nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic flood model—allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100‐year precipitation event of ~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding a ~30–127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events—suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century. Plain Language Summary: Heavy rainfall is increasing globally due to human‐caused global warming. However, it is still unclear how these increases in heavy rainfall might affect flood risk. In this paper, we investigate how global warming and population changes together may be affecting the number of people at risk from floods in the United States. We combine simulations from a climate model and flood model—allowing us to consider a wide range of heavy rainfall events. We report a ~20% increase in the size and a >200% increase in the frequency of very heavy and rare rainfall events, which leads to a ~30–127% increase in the number of people at risk from floods. Finally, we find that the heaviest rainfall events increase by the widest margin—suggesting the possibility of major increases in damage and disruption caused by severe floods in the 21st century. Key Points: Population exposure to flood hazard is increasing due to both climate‐driven increases in extreme rainfall as well as demographic shiftsThere is a wide range of plausible increases in population exposed to flood hazard, depending strongly on climate and growth scenarioWe find a nonlinear increase for most extreme events, suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically unprecedented rainfall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The emission due to the way human lifestyle have evolved over the centuries have led to one of the most complex and difficult issue the human species have ever met: Manmade climate change. The issue of global warming can ultimately lead to consequences which will significantly damage the world as we know it. The goal of this paper is to study the problem of global warming by utilizing tools from systems thinking, by applying analysis on the stakeholders connection to the issue and the relations existing inside the complex system, to enable the development of solutions which are applicable to negate the problem at hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against an academic and policy backdrop of interest in (and concerns about) the issue, this paper draws on a range of academic writing in various disciplines to explore visual strategies of climate change communication. The geographic scope of the investigation is the United Kingdom, with particular attention to recognizable icons of climate change in UK media and the images used in political campaigns. The paper is in two parts. The first part concentrates on various efforts to put a 'face' on the climate change issue, while part two suggests that weather and renewable energy are the dominant alternative motifs. The paper draws a basic distinction between fear-laden representations of climate change and a variety of visual efforts to use so-called inspirational imagery. All of the images reviewed suggest an affirmative answer to the question in the title, there are multiple efforts underway to move beyond polar bears and represent climate change in more creative and meaningful ways. The bigger question addressed is one raised already by photographers as well as academics, i.e. whether documentary photography (rather than particular types of images) is the more fundamental issue. The answer in the paper is that photographs are no different from other visual images in their capacity to draw attention to messages. The challenge is to use visuals creatively, in ways that prompt positive engagement with climate change without enhancing public disengagement and fatalism. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry. Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal husbandry an unattractive alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]