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Drought seriously endangers the development of agro‐pastoral ecotone in arid and semi‐arid regions. However, drought evolution characteristics of semi‐arid sandy grassland and its drivers are not well understood in the complex climate change context. Thus, in this paper, the revised standardized precipitation evaporation indices on one‐month (SPEI‐1) and growing‐season (SPEI‐6) scale, flash drought and dry spells (DS) were calculated as drought indicators, and the temporal variabilities and meteorological drivers of drought in Horqin Sandy Land during the growing period (April–September) from 2007 to 2021 were studied. The results showed that SPEI‐1 and SPEI‐6 exhibited negative trends and periodic change. This drought aggravation was manifested in increased grades and numbers of drought months. Flash droughts can occur every month during the growing season. And its occurrence was not only positively correlated with all drought events in frequency but also synchronized in time. The increased number of DS showed an asymmetrical shift towards 7‐day‐and‐longer DS. SPEI sensitivity to precipitation (P) was noticeably higher than to atmospheric evapotranspiration demand (AED) at both monthly and growing season scales. SPEI sensitivity to AED was modulated by P amounts, which was higher during low P period. Apart from the amounts of P and AED, their temporal variability also strongly determined how they affect the drought severity. P was also the main driver for flash drought and long DS, but AED with larger amount and higher variability is the reason for their aggravation. Our results demonstrate the complexity of drought intensification in semi‐arid sandy grasslands and highlight the important role of AED anomalies in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many agricultural regions in China are likely to become appreciably wetter or drier as the global climate warming increases. However, the impact of these climate change patterns on the intensity of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (GHGI, GHG emissions per unit of crop yield) has not yet been rigorously assessed. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, we found that climate change is expected to cause a 20.0% crop yield loss, while stimulating soil GHG emissions by 12.2% between 2061 and 2090 in China's agricultural regions. A wetter‐warmer (WW) climate would adversely impact crop yield on an equal basis and lead to a 1.8‐fold‐ increase in GHG emissions relative to those in a drier‐warmer (DW) climate. Without water limitation/excess, extreme heat (an increase of more than 1.5°C in average temperature) during the growing season would amplify 15.7% more yield while simultaneously elevating GHG emissions by 42.5% compared to an increase of below 1.5°C. However, when coupled with extreme drought, it would aggravate crop yield loss by 61.8% without reducing the corresponding GHG emissions. Furthermore, the emission intensity in an extreme WW climate would increase by 22.6% compared to an extreme DW climate. Under this intense WW climate, the use of nitrogen fertilizer would lead to a 37.9% increase in soil GHG emissions without necessarily gaining a corresponding yield advantage compared to a DW climate. These findings suggest that the threat of a wetter‐warmer world to efforts to reduce GHG emissions intensity may be as great as or even greater than that of a drier‐warmer world. Plain Language Summary: Both climate observations and projections suggest that warmer temperatures will intensify convective precipitation, resulting in drier regions becoming drier and wetter regions becoming wetter. By integrating an improved agricultural ecosystem model and a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, this study has investigated the effects of drier‐warmer (DW) and wetter‐warmer (WW) climates on crop yield and soil greenhouse gas emissions in China. Our findings indicate that the cost of greenhouse gas emissions in a wetter‐warmer world for crop production could be as high as or even higher than in a drier‐warmer world. Moreover, this study suggests that effective climate mitigation practices need to account for the combined effects of extreme climate changes and nitrogen addition on greenhouse gas emissions and crop production. Therefore, China would need to exert considerably more effort in a future with warmer and wetter conditions to achieve its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Key Points: Climate change would cause a 20% crop yield loss and an increase of 12.2% in soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2061 and 2090A Wetter‐Warmer climate would cause a more significant crop yield loss and about double the GHG emissions of a Drier‐Warmer climateNitrogen fertilizer‐induced GHG emissions in a Wetter‐Warmer climate would increase 37.9% compared to those in a Drier‐Warmer climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Changes in precipitation and temperature in the future increase the likelihood of drought in China. In this study, a stepwise cluster ensemble downscaling (SCED) model was developed to bias‐correct projections of temperature and precipitation from multiple RCM outputs, and further characterized the drought hazards. The developed SCED model was used to aggregate and correct the results of multiple regional climate models, and its performance was proved to be reliable by comparing with the observed results. The proposed SCED method has been applied for drought projections over the Fujian province, China. The results showed that the changes of precipitation and temperature in Fujian would have obvious spatial heterogeneous characteristics. The temperature in the southeast coastal areas will increase by up to 4°C and the precipitation will decrease by 3.1% in the late 21st century, while the temperature rises and precipitation increases in the southwest. Temperature in inland areas will be lower and precipitation will be less. The drought hazards were also characterized by both SPI and SPEI based on biased‐corrected projections from SCED model. According to the SPI and SPEI indices, although the number of dry months in Fujian province will not change significantly in future, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity may become more explicit. Moreover, the moderate drought (from SPI) may increase while the general drought may decrease (from both SPI and SPEI). For extreme droughts, there would not be visible changes detected by SPI, but an increasing trend characterized since the impact of temperature was included in SPEI. In addition, there would be an increasing trend on drought when increasing temperature and precipitation occurred simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is steadily increasing drought risk in many regions of the world. However, the contribution of warming over the past few decades to drought evolution in China remains unclear. This study used the self‐calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc‐PDSI) and a detrending experiment to quantify the contribution of warming to severe drought (sc‐PDSI < −3.0) characteristics (intensity, frequency, and duration) over China from 1980 to 2019. Differences in drought characteristics calculated from original and detrended temperature data were attributed to warming effects. The results showed that 93.8% of areas in China have experienced a significant (p <.05) warming trend from 1980 to 2019. Warming remarkably intensified severe drought characteristics across China. Without warming, the extent, frequency, and duration of severe droughts in China would reduce by 2.04%, 2.0%, and 0.82 months. In addition, there are apparent regional differences in the response of severe drought characteristics to warming. Severe drought characteristics in high elevations and high latitudes are more sensitive to warming than in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tarim River, the largest inland river in China, sits in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), which is an arid area with the ecosystem primarily sustained by water from melting snow and glaciers in the headstream area. To evaluate the pressures of natural disasters in this climate‐change‐sensitive basin, this study projected flash droughts in the headstream area of the TRB. We used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to describe the hydrological processes of the study area, Markov chain Monte Carlo to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the VIC model. Ten downscaled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to drive the VIC model, and the standardized evaporative stress ratio was applied to identify flash droughts. The results demonstrated that the VIC model after Bayesian parameters uncertainty analysis can efficiently describe the hydrological processes of the study area. In the future (2021–2100), compared with the plain region, the alpine region has higher flash drought frequency and intensity. Compared with the historical period (1961–2014), the frequency, duration, and intensity of flash droughts tend to increase throughout the study area, especially for the alpine area. Moreover, based on variance decomposition, CMIP6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection, followed by the shared socioeconomic pathway of climate change scenario and VIC model parameters. Plain Language Summary: The Tarim River is the largest inland river in China, which is an arid area with the ecosystem primarily sustained by water from melting snow and glaciers in the headstream area. Compared with long‐duration drought, flash drought is more difficult to forecast and identify. We used the variable infiltration capacity model to build a hydrological model of the headstream area of the Tarim River Basin, and the model output (ET data) was used to identify flash droughts. Based on 10 representative Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study projected the future flash droughts in the study area under climate change. The findings indicated that the alpine region is likely to experience a greater frequency and intensity of flash droughts in the future (2021–2100) compared to the plain region. Compared with the historical period (1961–2014), the frequency, duration, and intensity of flash droughts tend to increase throughout the study area, especially for the alpine area. In addition, the result of uncertainty decomposition revealed that the CMIP6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection. Key Points: The hydrological processes of study area are well described by the variable infiltration capacity model and Bayesian uncertainty analysisCompared with the plain region, the alpine region has higher flash drought frequency and intensity in the futureThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pressure on river water resources may increase continuously under global climate change and the increasing intensity of human activity, and the identification of river water sources is needed to maintain water resource sustainability. In this study, river water sources were studied using hydrochemical tracers (i.e. the major ions) and end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) during two hydrological years, in the subtropical monsoon basin of the Xiangjiang River in the south‐central China. Various water types including precipitation, river water, and mountain creek water, were collected in the basin at a high frequency. The results of EMMA showed that the average contributions from the direct input of precipitation, near‐surface runoff (represented by mountain creek water), and groundwater (represented by river water sampled during the base flow period) were 28 ± 24%, 49 ± 24% and 23 ± 16%, respectively. The contributions from these water sources to the river water varied greatly within the year, which may indicate a shift in the major flow pathways from direct precipitation input and near‐surface flow pathways in the spring rainy months (e.g. from March to May), to a deeper flow pathway in the dry or rainless months (e.g. January, February, July and December). The shift of the major flow pathways may be due to the factors such as the seasonality of precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil wetness conditions. Groundwater and near‐subsurface runoff dominated the river water and the direct input of precipitation was negligible during the dry or rainless months, and consequently, the river water chemistry was less diluted and more influenced by water‐soil/rock interactions and anthropogenic pollution during these months. The creek water contribution to the river water was relatively high in summer, especially in June and July 2021, which may indicate the substantial inter‐seasonal carryover of precipitation that contributed to the river water. With the projected increased frequency of extreme weather events such as seasonal drought, streamflow in the subtropical monsoon regions may experience greater recharge by deeper flow pathways, with the enhanced role of base flow in regulating streamflow, and there may be an increased risk to the water resource security under the condition of the decreased river dilution capacity and increased anthropogenic pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is projected to increase the probability of occurrence and severity of droughts. Increased CO2 concentration drives partial closure of plant stomata and reduces evapotranspiration. However, the impact of reduced evapotranspiration due to CO2 on future droughts characteristics in China is unclear. In this study, we have used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model simulations (GCMs) under historical period, and four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to estimate drought. We used a widely applicable drought index (i.e., the self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index [scPDSI]) to evaluate the historical and future drought conditions, using the Penman–Monteith formula with and without the CO2 concentrations. The results show that the increasing trend of scPDSI slows down when the CO2 effect is considered in all scenarios, especially in Heilongjiang, northern Xinjiang, and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The divergence in the slowdown trend among the different scenarios becomes greater after 2030, with higher emission scenarios implying a greater slowdown in the increasing trend of scPDSI. After considering CO2, drought characteristics such as the drought frequency, intensity, and drought area decrease. Increased CO2 concentration on vegetation physiological processes could mitigate future drought. Therefore, the effects of CO2 on plant physiology should be considered in studies of future drought trends to develop more realistic response and adaptation policies to future drought changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: Drought timing during the growing season can profoundly influence plant diversity and cover, with subsequent impacts on ecosystem functions and services in terrestrial environments. However, the different responses of plant communities to drought in different periods of the growing season remain uncertain. Location: The research was conducted in a semi‐arid grassland at the Duolun Restoration Ecology Research and Demonstration Station, in Inner Mongolia, China. Methods: The responses of plant species richness and cover to early‐ and late‐season drought with a four‐year field experiment were examined in a semi‐arid grassland in northern China. Soil moisture at different depths was measured to explore the underlying mechanisms of the drought effects on plant richness and cover. Results: Over the four years, late‐ rather than early‐season drought suppressed plant richness. Decreased species richness (−1.65 species) under late‐season drought was mainly due to suppressed perennial forb richness (−1.88 species). Late‐season drought also exerted greater negative effects on plant cover than early‐season drought. Effects of late‐season drought on plant cover depended on annual precipitation. Reduced plant cover (−7.5%) under early‐season drought stemmed from declines in shrubs and semi‐shrubs, particularly Artemisia frigida cover (−4.9%), which is sensitive to water deficits because of its shallow root depth (14.01 cm). Declined plant cover (−39.0%) under late‐season drought was mainly caused by suppressed perennial forb (−21.5%) and shrub and semi‐shrubs cover (−17.4%). The combined effects of early‐ and late‐season drought on plant cover were greater than the treatment alone, likely due to aggravating water deficits under growing‐season drought. Conclusions: Our results suggest late‐season drought is more critical for shifting plant communities. than early‐season drought. Our findings highlight the regulatory role of drought timing on plant community composition and development in arid and semi‐arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concurrent hot extremes and droughts undoubtedly aggravate the impacts of droughts on agriculture, natural environment, and human society. Recent studies mainly focus on the trends and changes in frequency and severity of compound drought and hot extreme events. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the changes in mean temperature during drought conditions. In this study, we investigated the mean temperature changes during droughts in observed and projected periods across China on a century time‐scale and explored the possible contributions of land surface‐atmosphere interactions or atmospheric moisture conditions to these changes. China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under droughts both in observations and future projections. A drier condition or a higher emission scenario was projected to result in a larger range of mean temperature changes under droughts in the future. We attributed the reduced mean temperatures under droughts to increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions. This study provides a reference for water resource management, drought risk reduction, as well as mitigation of agricultural crop loss and public health damage. Plain Language Summary: Previous climate studies generally focus on the trend analysis of concurrent droughts and hot extremes, especially in summer. There are gaps in our knowledge on how does the mean temperature under droughts change under climate warming, and what are the underlying driving factors? We investigated the changes in mean temperature during droughts across China using monthly observed data and projected data. China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under droughts both in observations and future projections. A drier condition or a higher emission scenario could result in a larger range of mean temperature changes under droughts in the future. Increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions resulted in the reduced mean temperatures under droughts. Our study provides references for policymakers to inform water resource management, drought risk reduction, and mitigation of agricultural crop loss. Key Points: China experienced reduced rather than amplified warming under drought conditions both in observations and future projectionsA drier condition or a higher emission scenario resulted in a larger range of mean temperature changes under future droughtsWe attributed the reduced mean temperatures under droughts to increasing winter droughts and higher atmospheric moisture conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions are an important driver for climate changes. However, the response of climate to volcanic eruptions sometimes varies from region to region. Although some studies reported that volcanic eruptions induced drought in Eastern China, the others argued that there is a possibility of wetter condition after volcanic eruptions in Eastern China. Until now, the response of dryness/wetness changes in this region to volcanic eruptions is controversial. Based on the dryness/wetness indexes from 100 sites in Central and Eastern China (CEC) over the past 500 years (1470–1999), the effects of volcanic eruptions occurred in the northern mid‐high latitudes (17 events) and the tropics (19 events) on dryness/wetness changes in CEC were analysed. Our results show that the significant response of dryness/wetness changes in CEC to volcanic eruptions occurred in the third or fourth year after the eruptions. Moreover, there is a significant north–south heterogeneity of the response of dryness/wetness changes in CEC to volcanic eruptions. Specifically, the response of dryness/wetness changes in northern CEC to volcanic eruptions is generally more sensitive than that in southern CEC. A persistent drying during the first to the fourth years post the volcanic events occurred in the northern mid‐high latitudes was found in north CEC, but not in south CEC. After the tropical volcanic events, there is a generally wetting in CEC, but it is stronger in north CEC than in south CEC. These results imply that, to some extent, volcanic eruptions occurred in the northern mid‐high latitudes may amplify dryness in north CEC, but may mitigate wetness in south CEC, while tropical volcanic eruptions may mitigate dryness in north CEC and amplify wetness in south CEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought largely affects terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) by its duration (i.e., drought time‐scales). However, the large‐scale impact of drought time‐scales on GPP is still not well understood, partly due to limited understanding of ecological processes and difficulties in quantifying drought time‐scales. Here, we examined the responses of GPP to drought in China during the last four decades, using state‐of‐the‐art GPP data estimates and a multiscalar drought metric. Most of the GPP data suggested that the time‐scales at which drought has the largest influence on annual GPP (dominant drought time‐scales) were well related to climate region and vegetation type. The GPP responded to drought more rapidly in arid regions than that in semiarid and subhumid regions, with a mean dominant drought time‐scale of 15 and 20 months, respectively; as plants in arid regions can rapidly adapt to water shortage through physiological strategies, while, in semiarid and subhumid regions plants usually can withstand a degree of water deficits. In a humid region, GPP did not rapidly respond to drought, probably because the high soil water availability buffered the effect of drought. In addition, most of the GPP estimates suggested that grasslands and croplands tended to respond to drought at shorter time‐scales than that of forests, shrublands, and sparse vegetation. The study highlights the importance of improving the effects of water availability on vegetation activity and further consideration of vegetation adaptability to drought in both remote sensing GPP algorithms and parameterizations of current terrestrial ecosystem models. Plain Language Summary: Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the entire photosynthetic production of organic compounds in an ecosystem. It plays an important role in carbon cycles, and is the basis for food, fiber, and wood production. Drought widespreadly and negatively affects GPP by its duration (i.e., drought time‐scales). Thus, it is critical to understand the dominant time‐scale at which drought has the largest influence on GPP. We investigated dominant time‐scales of GPP response to drought in China using six GPP estimates and a multiscalar drought metric. We found that the dominant time‐scales were well related to climate region and vegetation type. The GPP responded to drought more quickly in arid regions than that in semiarid and subhumid regions. This might be due to plants in arid regions can rapidly adapt them to water shortage, while, in semiarid and subhumid regions, plants can withstand a degree of water deficits. In a humid region, GPP did not rapidly respond to drought, probably because the high soil water availability buffered the effect of drought. The grasslands and croplands responded to drought at shorter time‐scales than forests, shrublands, and sparse vegetation. The study could benefit the management and mitigation of drought effects on GPP. Key Points: The magnitudes of gross primary productivity (GPP) response to drought highly vary among different GPP estimates and across time‐scalesGPP responds to drought at shorter time‐scales in arid regions than that in other climate regionsGPP of forests responds to drought at longer time‐scales than that of shrublands, grasslands, and croplands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maize is one of China's most important crops and is profoundly sensitive to drought. Using weather and county‐level maize yield data, the drought risk for maize in China was estimated for the period 1971–2010. The results show that drought risk has increased in China over the last 40 years, and that areas experiencing moderate to high drought risk have expanded, particularly in Northeast China. The main reasons for the observed changes are increased drought hazard associated with climate change, and increased exposure of maize to drought due to an expanded production area. Drought risk over all of China increased by 55% in the 2000s compared to the 1970s. While around 93% of the increase in drought risk in the maize production regions is due to increased drought exposure, 7% is attributable to climate change. In Northeast China alone, drought risk increased by 129% from the 1970s to the 2000s, which is the sum of an 86% increase caused by greater drought exposure, associated with expansion of the production area, and a 14% increase driven by climate change. The results indicate that the drought hazard has increased by around 13%, and drought risk has increased by 110% for each 1°C rise in annual mean temperature in Northeast China over the past 40 years. Maize yield losses have increased by around 4% per 1°C increase in annual mean temperature in this region. The sensitivity of maize to drought means that climate change is likely to have significant negative impact on future maize productivity, and China's export and import of maize is likely to be affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship holds that the atmospheric water vapor content enhances with warming temperatures, suggesting intensifications of precipitable water and also altering runoff generation. Drought conditions are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff, which tightly connect with temperature scaling characteristics. However, whether and how water fluxes' scaling with temperatures may affect the evolution of droughts under climate change has not yet been systematically investigated. This study develops a cascade modeling chain consisting of the climate model ensemble, bias correction technique, and hydrological models to investigate the precipitation and runoff scaling relationships with warming temperatures under the current (1961–2005) and future periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100), as well as their implications on future drought changes across 151 catchments in China. The results show that (1) precipitation (runoff) scaling relationships with temperatures are stable during different time periods; (2) return level analysis indicates drought risks are projected to become (1–10 times) more severe across central and southern catchments, where the precipitation (runoff) strengthens with rising temperatures up to a peak point and then decline in a hotter environment. The northeastern and western catchments, where a monotonic increasing scaling type dominated, are accompanied by drought mitigations for two future periods; (3) future changes in hydrological droughts relative to the baseline are (1–5 times) larger than those in meteorological droughts. These results imply that changes in future drought risks are highly dependent on the present precipitation (runoff)‐temperature relationships, suggesting a meaningful implication of scaling types for future drought prediction. Plain Language Summary: Drought hazards are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff. Global climate warming has altered these terrestrial hydrological processes and subsequently changed drought conditions. Characterizing the responses of precipitation and runoff to warming climates and investigating their implications on future drought changes are important for drought early warning and prediction. Here we show that monthly precipitation and runoff either exhibit a monotonic increasing or the peak‐like structure (in which precipitation and runoff increase with warming temperatures up to a peak point and decline thereafter) with temperatures. The increasing relationship typically suggests future drought mitigation, while the hook structure type, which prevails in central and southern catchments in China, implies increasing drought risks. Our findings facilitate a better understanding of drought changes under climate change and provide a scientific basis for drought adaptation to climate change. Key Points: Monthly precipitation and runoff typically exhibit a monotonic increasing or hook structure with temperature scaling in ChinaThe hook structures typically imply future intensifying drought hazards, whereas the increasing scaling types infer drought mitigationsFuture changes in hydrological droughts relative to the historical baseline are larger than those in meteorological droughts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates agricultural adaptation to drought for different cropping systems in southern China. The study area was divided into three regions: South China (SC), South of the Yangtze River (SYR), and Southwest China (SWC). An index of agricultural adaptation to drought (D) was established. Our findings indicated that the average total crop water demand varied greatly among the regions from 1961 to 2010 in southern China. The maximum value was found in the SC region, followed by the SYR and SWC regions. The effects of droughts on different crops were noticeable. Frequent droughts were recorded in late rice than in early rice in the SC and SYR regions. Droughts in the SWC region mainly affected winter wheat. Moreover, the effects of droughts on crops varied during different growth stages. More frequent and serious droughts occurred during the crop critical flowering stage. Particularly, the frequency of moderate and severe droughts for late rice in the SYR region was 62% during the critical flowering stage. For the SC and SYR regions, the D values of early rice (0.29 and 0.29) were lower than that of late rice (0.31 and 0.33), respectively. For the SWC region, the D values of winter wheat and rice were both low, with averages of 0.16 and 0.29, respectively. Our study provides interesting insights for improving the drought defense abilities for different cropping systems by changing crop planting proportion on a regional scale in China. Research Impact Statement: Agricultural adaptation to drought for different cropping systems can be estimated based on sown area, actual yield, water demand, and potential evapotranspiration of crop in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the most widespread and destructive hazards over the Loess Plateau (LP) of China. Due to climate change, extremely high temperature accompanied with drought (expressed as hot drought) may lead to intensive losses of both properties and human deaths in future. A hot drought probabilistic recognition system is developed to investigate how potential future climate changes will impact the simultaneous occurrence of drought and hot extremes (hot days exceeding certain values) on the LP. Two regional climate models, coupled with multiple bias‐correction techniques and multivariate probabilistic inference, are innovative integrated into the hot drought probabilistic recognition system to reveal the concurrence risk of droughts and hot extremes under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The hot‐day index, TX90p, indicating the number of days with daily maximum temperature (Tmax) exceeding the 90th percentile threshold, and the Standardized Precipitation Index are applied to identify the joint risks on the LP using copula‐based methods. The results show that precipitation will increase throughout most of the LP under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of 2036–2095, while Tmax may increase significantly all over the LP (1.8–2.7 °C for RCP4.5 and 2.7–3.6 °C for RCP8.5). The joint return periods of Standardized Precipitation Index and TX90p show that fewer stations will experience severe drought with long‐term hot extremes in two future scenarios. However, some stations may experience hot droughts that are more frequent and extreme, particularly certain stations in the southwest and south‐central regions of the LP with recurrence period less than 10 years. Key Points: A modeling system is developed to investigate future characteristics of simultaneous occurrence of drought and hot extremesPrecipitation projections from PRICIS and RegCM models were jointly corrected by the multidimensional copula modelResults show that some stations in partial area of Loess Plateau may experience hot droughts that are more frequent and extreme in future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk analysis of urban flood and drought can provide useful guidance for urban rainwater management. Based on an analysis of urban climate characteristics in 2,264 Chinese cities from 1958 to 2017, this study evaluated urban flood and drought risks. The results demonstrated that the annual average values of precipitation, aridity index, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and extreme drought events differed significantly in these cities. The values of the above six climatic indicators in the cities ranged from 9.29–2639.30 mm, 0.47–54.73, 1.08–8.79 time, 7.82–107.25 mm, 0.76–2.99 time, and 10.30–131.19 days, respectively. The geographical patterns of urban precipitation, aridity index, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and drought events in China fit well to the Hu‐Huanyong Line that was created in 1940s to identify the pattern of population distribution. Extreme precipitation in most cities has upward trends, except for those around the Hu‐Huanyong Line. The extreme drought events had upward trends in the cities east of the Hu‐Huanyong Line, but there were downward trends in the cities west of the line. The risk assessment indicated that 3.80% cities were facing serious flood and 6.01% cities were facing serious drought risks, which are located in the coast of southern China and northwestern China, respectively, and other 90.19% cities were facing different types of drought and flood risks in terms of their intensity and frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces affecting the hydrologic cycle, which further influence the stationarity of the hydrologic regime. Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from the normal hydrologic conditions affected by these two phenomena. In this study, we propose a framework for quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. First, trend analysis and change‐point test are performed to determine variations of hydrological variables. After that, the fixed runoff threshold level method (TLM) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are used to verify whether the traditional assessment methods for hydrological drought are applicable in a changing environment. Finally, two improved drought assessment methods, the variable TLM and the SRI based on parameter transplantation are employed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought based on the reconstructed natural runoff series obtained using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The results of a case study on the typical semiarid Laohahe basin in North China show that the stationarity of the hydrological processes in the basin is destroyed by human activities (an obvious change‐point for runoff series is identified in 1979). The traditional hydrological drought assessment methods can no longer be applied to the period of 1980–2015. In contrast, the proposed separation framework is able to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological drought during the above period. Their ranges of contributions to hydrological drought calculated by the variable TLM method are 20.6–41.2% and 58.8–79.4%, and the results determined by the SRI based on parameter transplantation method are 15.3–45.3% and 54.7–84.7%, respectively. It is concluded that human activities have a dominant effect on hydrological drought in the study region. The novelty of the study is twofold. First, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient in quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. Second, the findings of this study can be used for hydrological drought assessment and water resource management in water‐stressed regions under nonstationary conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Daily precipitation data from 34 weather stations in Northeast China from 1960 to 2008 are used to examine trends in the occurrence of dry days and prolonged dry episodes. Trends in the mean length and frequency of prolonged dry episodes, as well as the number of dry days within prolonged dry episodes ( DDPDE), are computed regionally and for individual stations at the threshold levels of 1 and 2 mm day−1. Regionally, the number of dry days is increasing in the summer half-year and decreasing in the winter half-year. DDPDE is significantly increasing in the summer half-year; the increased frequency of dry spells has the greatest effect. The mean length of prolonged dry episodes in the winter half-year has decreased significantly. Our results indicate that neither the frequency nor the mean length of prolonged dry episodes, alone, can adequately describe the short-term dry conditions of an area. Multiple characteristics of dry spells, including frequency, length, and the number of DDPDE should be considered. DDPDE is a function of both the frequency and length of dry episodes, but may be more influenced by one or the other characteristics of dry spells, depending on the season or region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid and semi‐arid regions of China (ASRC) are increasingly threatened by drought. Especially when drought and heat extremes coincide, the resultant impact would be even more harmful to human society and the natural environment. This study investigates the spatio‐temporal changes in concurrent drought and heat extremes in ASRC during 1961–2014. Summer heat extremes quantified by hot day (HD), warm night (WN), daytime (DHW), and nighttime heatwave (NHW) are examined. On average, the concurrent nighttime events (concurrent drought‐WN and drought‐NHW) increases by 2.7 times faster than daytime ones (concurrent drought‐HD and drought‐DHW), and they appear more frequently in eastern than western ASRC. We also find that all four types of concurrent events have been significantly increased over the past decades. Compared to daytime (i.e., HD and DHW), the concurrent events at nighttime (i.e., WN and NHW) increased even more rapidly. During the study period, concurrent drought‐DHW (drought‐NHW) climbed up at the rate of 0.03 (0.08) events decade−1 and concurrent drought‐HD (drought‐WN) increased by 0.17 (0.45) days decade−1. Geographically, eastern ASRC exhibited a more pronounced increasing trend than the west. Given the increasing threats of concurrent events, we suggest that more attention should be paid to these compound events in future climate change studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]