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Pride in Australia's extreme climate has long been a part of Australia's national identity. Today, climate continues to be enrolled in a range of nationalistic projects, including the (re)development of climate science and other responses to climate change. In this paper, we outline some of the contours of the 'Australian national climate', claims to know it, and four idealised responses to it: bounce back, dismissal, endurance, and migration. We argue that the deeply cultural framing of climate in Australia-in particular, Australians' emphasis on the climate's inherent variability and unknowability, and their own historical adaptability-is being exploited by the federal government and hampering climate change mitigation nationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now broadly acknowledged that climate change due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect is underway and such change will have major implications for our societies and environments. This paper outlines a pedagogical approach devised to encourage learning and critical thinking about climate change. A constructivist approach to teaching and learning is applied to stimulate analysis of potential impacts of climate change on systems familiar to secondary school students in South Australia. The problem-based method guides students through a conceptualisation of the implications of environmental change. Students at Woodcroft College, when given the opportunity to examine the potential climate change impacts on a local coastal ecosystem, found the method to be both challenging and engaging. The exercise concluded with students discussing possible personal behavioural and broader societal responses to reduce the impacts of future climate change. The paper contends that such teaching to support students to become resilient young adults will be vital in a future world of environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I explore the Australian Government's approach to international cooperation regarding global climate change from its emergence as an international political issue in the late 1980s to the present. In particular, I reflect on the ethical assumptions underpinning Australia's approach, and the ethical arguments invoked to justify Australia's stance on climate change. I argue that Australia's position has regressed from support for the central ethical principles (here defined as distributive and retributive justice) underpinning the climate change regime to an ultimate rejection of these principles. This regression is concerning for what it tells us about the Howard Government's conception of ethical responsibility in global politics. Further, and in light of the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, it is concerning given its potential to undermine meaningful international cooperation on a complex but pressing environmental issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Seaboard of Australia (ESA) has been identified as being different to the rest of Australia in terms of rainfall patterns. However, rainfall patterns within the ESA itself are not well understood. This study identifies Australian rainfall districts that exhibit similar (and different) temporal variation, with the primary aim being to determine if the ESA can be considered a homogenous region with respect to rainfall. The results (a) confirm that the ESA is different to the rest of Australia and (b) show that the ESA is not homogenous and that East Coast Lows (ECLs) are linked to this inhomogeneity. For winter (JJA) three separate divisions within the ESA are identified and at least two clear divisions are identified in other seasons. ECL sub‐types contribute to this inhomogeneity because each ECL sub‐type is associated with different spatio‐temporal rainfall patterns across the ESA. This is an important insight for natural resources management and emergency services within the heavily populated ESA because it demonstrates that existing climate related risks are different across the ESA. Further, the way climate risks change in the future is also likely to be inconsistent across the ESA. Future climate related risks will depend on how ECL behaviour (e.g., intensity, frequency, location, duration, path and geographical extent) changes. This reinforces the need for locally relevant and practically useful climate science information and adaptation strategies—as opposed to the State‐ or country‐wide information and adaptation approaches that are commonly used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change poses a significant threat to natural communities around the world, with many plant species showing signs of climate stress. Grassland ecosystems are not an exception, with climate change compounding contemporary pressures such as habitat loss and fragmentation. In this study, we assess the climate resilience of Themeda triandra, a foundational species and the most widespread plant in Australia, by assessing the relative contributions of spatial, environmental and ploidy factors to contemporary genomic variation. Reduced‐representation genome sequencing on 472 samples from 52 locations was used to test how the distribution of genomic variation, including ploidy polymorphism, supports adaptation to hotter and drier climates. We explicitly quantified isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE) and predicted genomic vulnerability of populations to future climates based on expected deviation from current genomic composition. We found that a majority (54%) of genomic variation could be attributed to IBD, while an additional 22% (27% when including ploidy information) could be explained by two temperature and two precipitation climate variables demonstrating IBE. Ploidy polymorphisms were common within populations (31/52 populations), indicating that ploidy mixing is characteristic of T. triandra populations. Genomic vulnerabilities were found to be heterogeneously distributed throughout the landscape, and our analysis suggested that ploidy polymorphism, along with other factors linked to polyploidy, reduced vulnerability to future climates by 60% (0.25–0.10). Our data suggests that polyploidy may facilitate adaptation to hotter climates and highlight the importance of incorporating ploidy in adaptive management strategies to promote the resilience of this and other foundation species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat fragmentation imperils the persistence of many functionally important species, with climate change a new threat to local persistence due to climate niche mismatching. Predicting the evolutionary trajectory of species essential to ecosystem function under future climates is challenging but necessary for prioritizing conservation investments. We use a combination of population genetics and niche suitability models to assess the trajectory of a functionally important, but highly fragmented, plant species from south‐eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae). We demonstrate significant genetic structuring among, and high level of relatedness within, fragmented remnant populations, highlighting imminent risks of inbreeding. Population simulations, controlling for effective population size (Ne), suggest that many remnant populations will suffer rapid declines in genetic diversity due to drift in the absence of intervention. Simulations were used to demonstrate how inbreeding and drift processes might be suppressed by assisted migration and population mixing approaches that enhance the size and connectivity of remnant populations. These analyses were complemented by niche suitability models that predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitat by 2080; ~30% of the current distribution of the species climate niche overlaps with the projected distribution of the species climate niche in the geographic region by the 2080s. Our study highlights the importance of conserving remnant populations and establishing new populations in areas likely to support B. marginata in the future, and adopting seed sourcing strategies that can help populations overcome the risks of inbreeding and maladaptation. We also argue that ecological replacement of B. marginata using climatically suited plant species might be needed in the future to maintain ecosystem processes where B. marginata cannot persist. We recommend the need for progressive revegetation policies and practices to prevent further deterioration of species such as B. marginata and the ecosystems they support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outputs from new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policymakers and others, for example, the integrated matrix of socioeconomic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the climate in the Australian region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with large‐scale climate drivers, improved representation of atmosphere and ocean extreme heat events, as well as dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident in the excessive rainfall over the Maritime Continent and rainfall pattern biases in the nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections of Australian temperature and rainfall from the available CMIP6 ensemble broadly agree with those from CMIP5, except for a group of CMIP6 models with higher climate sensitivity and greater warming and increase in some extremes after 2050. CMIP6 rainfall projections are similar to CMIP5, but the ensemble examined has a narrower range of rainfall change in austral summer in Northern Australia and austral winter in Southern Australia. Overall, future national projections are likely to be similar to previous versions but perhaps with some areas of improved confidence and clarity. Key Points: CMIP6 shows incremental improvement of the simulation of Australian climate compared to CMIP5CMIP6 climate projections are similar to CMIP5 except for a group of higher sensitivity models with warmer projected change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The management of water resources is challenging under extreme climate conditions with the acceleration of climate change. Many existing indices for analysing extreme climate conditions focus on the statistical behaviour of a single hydrological variable, such as precipitation or temperature. Such indices have limitations in providing a comprehensive interpretations of elaborate extreme climate conditions. In this study, the hydrological severity index (HSI), which is defined as the ratio of precipitation to the sum of evapotranspiration, runoff, and terrestrial water storage from the water balance equation, was proposed and calculated using Global Land Data Assimilation System datasets for 1980–2010. Mean HSI was relatively high in tropical regions due to the high sensitivity of precipitation, while it was relatively low in semi‐arid and arid regions due to low precipitation and high evaporative demand. HSI showed a good representation of hydrological severity based on the spatial pattern of the absolute correlation coefficient as well as the opposite pattern of the coefficient of variation calculated from HSI and the radiative index of dryness. Based on the aforementioned phenomenon, temporal anomaly HSI (HSIanom) was applied to Pakistan and Australia as case studies to analyse the 2010 Pakistan Flooding and the Australian Millennium Drought (especially in 2002 and 2006). The HSIanom was able to capture the severity of extreme climate events and to provide underlying causes accompanying the physical climate forcing system. Specifically, the spatial pattern of HSIanom was useful for analysing regions with high severity to extreme climate conditions. The HSI can be used to establish water management policies that consider regional hydrological features in order to cope with intensified climate change. In addition, stand‐alone HSI could be used to predict future climate trends based on precise simulations of hydrological variables. Spatial distributions of the hydrological severity index and radiative index of dryness (ϕ); (a) mean HSI, (b) absolute correlation coefficient, (c) coefficient of variation of HSI, and (d) CV of ϕ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within Australian climate policy, the dominant framework for determining national emission reduction targets has been 'burden sharing'. The prevailing view, both within and outside government, has been that there should be a rough equivalence in the costs that countries bear in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, at least where countries share similar wealth and capacity traits. This article looks at the practical problems with this approach that stem from its reliance on economic modeling. It is contended that any principled approach to target setting should strive for objectivity but that burden sharing based on projected welfare losses cannot provide this. To illustrate the fallibility of the economic projections that are done for these purposes, the article reviews how one of the greenhouse reporting sectors, known as land use, land-use change and forestry, has been dealt with in the modelling exercises that have been done in Australia for climate policy purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Issues addressed: Health promotion principles for practice are closely aligned with that of environmental sustainability. Health promotion practitioners are well positioned to take action on climate change. However, there has been scant discussion about practice synergies and subsequently the type and nature of professional competencies that underpin such action. Methods: This commentary uses the Australian Health Promotion Association (AHPA) national core competencies for Health Promotion Practitioners as a basis to examine the synergies between climate change and health promotion action. Results: We demonstrate that AHPA core competencies, such as program planning, evaluation and partnership building, are highly compatible for implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. We use food security examples to illustrate this case. Conclusions: There appears to be considerable synergy between climate change and health promotion action. This should be a key focus of future health promotion competency development in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which investigates the occurrence of multi-annual dry episodes for three selected regions in Australia. It notes the analysis done in the country's climate variability by use of simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2. It also explores the influences of the El/Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies, greenhouse effect and stochastic forcing.

It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray–Darling Basin. In this study, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure, on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging and future climatic change across the Australian continent has been identified as a significant threat to the successful sustainable management of the nation's water resources. However, the impacts of climate change must be viewed within the context of past, present and future climatic variability and human agency. A qualitative screening-level risk assessment was undertaken for Australia's 325 surface water management areas by aggregating a suite of six relevant risk indicators. Four indicators addressed the antecedent conditions upon which future climate change will act. These included 50-year trends in rainfall, the status of surface and groundwater development, and catchment condition. Two indicators addressed future drivers of supply and demand; specifically, projected changes in runoff and population. The results indicate that the management challenges currently experienced in Australia's population centres and key agricultural areas such as the Murray-Darling Basin are likely to increase in future decades. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of net risk, inclusive of multiple biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, is more extensive than is suggested by consideration of surface water development and availability alone. Comparison of at-risk catchments with the spatial distribution of various social and environmental assets identified a high degree of overlap among catchment risk and human populations, water storages, irrigated agricultural land, and wetlands of international significance. This suggests that the catchments of the greatest value are also those judged to be at greatest risk. Though considerable work remains in evaluating the security of Australia's water resources to climatic and other stressors, this study provides a first-order scheme for prioritising the risks to which catchments are exposed and an assessment of how some key drivers are likely to interact to drive risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray-Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. It states that assessment is taken on the capacity of models submitted for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), to simulate maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. The team use daily data from AR4 to calculate the mean of three quantities, but also derive probability density functions (PDFs) for each variable. It notes that to demonstrate skill in simulating the daily derived PDFs is more challenging than simulating the mean.

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade−1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full-’ and ‘no-migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location: East coast of Australia. Methods:Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcate were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcate was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results: Ninety-eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcate . Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pair wise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeder and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty-seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions: We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human‐induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long‐term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up‐to‐date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]